After crowning Samsung as Apple's heir, analysts now rethinking their math

12467

Comments

  • Reply 61 of 137
    Actually for Samsung, shipped means simply shipped and not sold because they don't share their sales activity readily whereas for Apple, they will only talk about shipped when it equates to sales.

    Samsung in this case shipped tons of phones, but everyone had to guess at their sales and assumed well they beat expectations last year, they must do the same this year... this is a dangerous game to play especially with other people's money.
  • Reply 62 of 137
    titantigertitantiger Posts: 229member
    Actually, in the case of Samsung and others, based on their history, shipped does NOT mean sold. They have frequently touted "shipped" numbers early on, only for "sold" numbers to fall short...sometimes drastically short.

    And as someone else pointed out, with Mountain Lion it actually, literally DOES mean sold because there is no physical product that sits on store shelves waiting to be purchased. If a copy of Mountain Lion shipped it was ONLY because it was either purchased and paid for on the Mac App Store or it shipped with a newly purchased and paid for Mac. Period. With Samsung, or Blackberry phones, you ship product to a retailer and then hope that customers buy them.

    That makes a difference. Couple that with the news that the Galaxy S4 *sales* numbers are falling short of expectations and you get the pictures.
  • Reply 63 of 137
    davendaven Posts: 529member


    Actually, I think the big loser here is Google.  Why? Google bought Motorola for its patents and phone designers (but mostly for the patents) and was to come out with a super duper iPhone killer (the pundits always post that lead-in about every new smart phone).  Correct me if I'm wrong but Google hasn't released a new super duper phone.  The problem now is that unless the phone is truly innovative it will be released into a saturated market and Google's entry into high-end phones will be hailed at first but will then fall flat when the numbers come out. Depending on how the pundits spin it, it may be ignored or Google's bubble will be popped.

  • Reply 64 of 137
    DaekwanDaekwan Posts: 174member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Samsung's problem is I don't think people really have an emotional attachment to them. For some people, they just hate all things Apple and since Samsung is Apple's biggest competitor they go with Samsung. But I don't think the brand loyalty is there. And for a lot of people the S4 probably wasn't different enough to justify the upgrade. This is why I'm glad Apple seems to be moving in the direction of having the software really utilize the power of the hardware, so having more powerful hardware actually does matter. People are so focused on the unfinished UI but the little we can glean from those under NDA suggest developers are really stoked about iOS 7. Apple has a lot more cards to play and this fall should very be interesting.


     


    Bingo.


     


    Samsung isnt gaining any loyality.  Samsung is gaining early adopters who want the latest & greatest.. and Samsung is able to attract those people by the huge portfolio and a constant stream of "next big thing" announcements.  I know people who bought the Galaxy Nexus, then the S3, then the Note2.. and were considering the S4 or Note3 but they are simply tired of buying a new smartphone every 6 months.  


     


    The problem is.. all of the devices pretty much perform exactly the same way.. providing the exact same user experience for 99% of its operations.  Yes one may have a slightly bigger 0.3" screen or perform a little faster.. but the experience is nearly identical.  There comes a point where you simply cannot continuing to chase the "next big thing", because the the next big thing simply does what you already have.  Continuing to offer products that are a "little bit" bigger & faster can only get you so far.


     


    While Apple suffers from this problem too (especially the iPhone & iPad).  They have an entire range of products that work different, but together and share all of your information in the same ecosystem.  They have entry products which are like their form of a gateway drug.  Once you get used to using an iPod, you want an iPhone.  Once you get used to using an iPhone, you want an iPad.  Once you get used to using an iPad.. you want a Macbook.. and so-on.  This is where they differ from Samsung, once you get use to using an S3.. do you really crave other non-phone items Samsung has to offer?  With the exception of a Samsung 65" LED HDTV.. there's simply not much in the Samsung catalog I'm interested in other than their phone announcements.


     


    6 years ago I didnt have a single Apple product in my home.  A 128mb Creative Labs mp3 player was given to me as a Christmas gift.  I began using it as a tool to help motivate me during my workouts but because increasingly frustrated with it.  Since the majority of the people in the gym were using iPods, I decided to give the 4GB iPod Nano a try and I've been hooked ever since.  The iPod lead to me buying the iPhone.  The iPhone lead to me Macbook Pro.  The Macbook Pro lead to me buying the Extreme router.  And to fast forward to now.. I currently own an Apple 4thG iPod, iPhone5, iPad2, Macbook Air, (2) Extreme routers and (4) AppleTVs.  

  • Reply 65 of 137

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by webweasel View Post


     


    Okay, so let's try that another way...


     


    Shipped = sold - returns


     



     


    Much as I hate to jump into the fray on this argument, I just gotta say... I think that math is a bit screwed up.

  • Reply 66 of 137
    DaekwanDaekwan Posts: 174member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by abazigal View Post


    IMO, the main issue is that Samsung is releasing too many models of smartphones, so soon.


     


    It has only been 9 months since the release of the S3 phone. Many people who bought one still have a long way to go with regards to fulfilling their 2-year contract. They are not going to fork out a hefty recontracting fee to switch over. 


     


    I think Apple nailed the right timeline. Focus on making one great phone once a year, and there will be no shortage of consumers whose contracts are up when you release yours. 



     


    Bingo!

  • Reply 67 of 137
    carthusiacarthusia Posts: 561member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post


     


    No, DED, I am well aware that Mountain Lion was only sold as a digital copy.  That's how I got my upgrade and why I advised my mom not to worry about her MBA lacking a CD drive.  My point was sarcastic.  Shipped means sold.


     


    The hobbyist platform thing was absurd the first time you used it and still is.  The only hobbyists developing it are the devs making custom ROMs.  Anyway, as far as iOS taking ideas from Android and Windows, it absolutely did.  I hate to use the word "stealing" because that implies malicious intent, and I don't think that using others' ideas as a stepping stone to something of your own is malicious.  Rather it's a necessary part of progress.  These are some articles you might want to reference with regards to Apple's stepping stones:


     


    http://www.infoworld.com/d/consumerization-of-it/yes-ios-7-copies-windows-phone-and-android-get-used-it-220644


     


    http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/06/apple_ios_7_will_borrowing_ideas_from_microsoft_help_apple_destroy_the_smartphone.html


     


    http://www.eweek.com/mobile/apples-ios-7-buys-time-with-ideas-borrowed-from-other-mobile-platforms/


     


    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2013/06/11/an-open-letter-from-android-to-ios-7/


     


    http://www.droid-life.com/2013/06/10/ios7-vs-android-a-quick-comparison-after-the-wwdc-keynote/



    Those articles you quote are amusingly unconvincing.

  • Reply 68 of 137
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    Much as I hate to jump into the fray on this argument, I just gotta say... I think that math is a bit screwed up.

    I agree, I would have it more like sold = shipped-(remaining stock +returns)
  • Reply 69 of 137
    carthusiacarthusia Posts: 561member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post


     


    I didn't say all of their phones got the update.  Maybe buy a high end model next time?  I don't know what else to tell you.


     


    How many features of iOS 7 are missing on your 4?



    You, like many others, try very hard to make people forget al the very crappy phones Samsung ships. You intentionally tried obscure the crappy nature of their product by pointing only to the S4. You got called on it and tried to backtrack. Lame.

  • Reply 70 of 137


    Why would it be any more difficult for Samsung to get sales figures from their reseller partners?

  • Reply 71 of 137
    tbelltbell Posts: 3,146member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Zinthar View Post



    This is actually worrying news for Apple as well, IMO. Pretty much every premium smartphone released in the past year has failed to live up to the sales expectations of Wall Street. In the case of Apple, the surprising story has been how much the iPhone 4 and 4S at lower price points have cannibalized sales that likely would otherwise have been iPhone 5 sales -- for many customers, having an iOS smartphone with excellent build quality is all they needed; the extra speed and features of the iPhone 5 weren't enough fro them to spend more for it. 


     


     


    The expectations of Wall Street, as this article shows, is generally pure manipulation. Further, if the market gets something so blatantly wrong, why is the company punished? Apple provides guidance. If it makes the guidance or beats it, Wall Street should be discredited for over shooting. Moreover, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S are doing well in Countries like India and China where cost is a big issue. Some places in the world require you to buy the phone in full. 


     


    Apple and Samsung also report different numbers, but the Street treats them the same. Apple reports actual sells to real people, Samsung reports units shipped to retailors. Big difference, and Samsung has shown it is willing to distort the difference to its advantage (e.g. when it reported it sold millions of tablets, but later reported only a couple hundred thousand people actually bought them at that point). 

  • Reply 72 of 137
    rednivalrednival Posts: 331member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by abazigal View Post


    IMO, the main issue is that Samsung is releasing too many models of smartphones, so soon.


     


    It has only been 9 months since the release of the S3 phone. Many people who bought one still have a long way to go with regards to fulfilling their 2-year contract. They are not going to fork out a hefty recontracting fee to switch over. 


     


    I think Apple nailed the right timeline. Focus on making one great phone once a year, and there will be no shortage of consumers whose contracts are up when you release yours. 



     


    I do not doubt it is an issue, but I am not sure it is the main issue.  


     


    Samsung also releases budget models, as do other Android makers.  Even the budget devices are starting to have very nice features and processors in them, so there's not as much value in an Android phone with a high price tag.  My guess is cheaper, lower priced devices will begin to dominate Android more and more.  Most people I know with Android phones got them because they were cheap and they didn't want to spend $200 on a phone.  If you're looking at a phone for $99, nearly every option is an Android device.  People buying on basis of price have very little brand loyalty.  They get what looks like the best deal, and Galaxy S4 just looks overpriced when on a shelf next to all the cheaper Android devices.


     


    Apple, on the other hand, has a loyal following of customers that usually are willing to spend for the upgrade, and since their "cheap" phones are usually their older phones, and many people want the new models.  Not to mention that everyone knows Apple products cost more because they're Apple.  Plus, Apple tends to find a way to add something fairly significant to every device.  Whether it is an groundbreaking innovation or something other devices did first, you can't argue that Apple gives customers  a reason to buy the newer model.  It may not always impress critics, but customers keep coming back for more.

  • Reply 73 of 137
    vadaniavadania Posts: 425member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post


     


    Jesus, there was a /s after that sentence.  It was sarcastic.  Shipped equals sold for any company any time anywhere.  Shipped only means something different when returns are made.



    Shipped does not equal sold.  Especially in this case.


     


    With Mountain Lion, you could purchase it once and download it to all of your machines.  I have four machines, so that's one sale and four SHIPPED copies.  Also, if you purchased a Mac somewhere around a month previous to the release of ML you were allowed a free download.


     


    The same was true about Lion.


     


    Shipped means SHIPPED.  It does NOT mean SOLD.  I don't really see what's so hard to understand.


     


    I'm also curious if they included copies SHIPPED on new Macs, but in the end it is rather irrelevant.


     


    This thread is getting absolutely absurd...

  • Reply 74 of 137
    I think the good enough factor has definitely started to happen in smart phones. Apple is unique in their planning and thinking about this problem. They have always expected this to happen and they have a whole playbook of new features to add to the iPhone which will help to continue to differentiate the iPhone from Android and make the iPhone stickier. Skating to where the puck is going to be is the plan and has been since 2001. People complain about how Apple lets new tech trickle out in a managed process rather than throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. This called good management, and it is surprisingly rare in big business.
  • Reply 75 of 137
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    Why would it be any more difficult for Samsung to get sales figures from their reseller partners?

    Because they deal with many more than Apple does, many being of the mom and pop variety.
  • Reply 76 of 137
    tbelltbell Posts: 3,146member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    I can't answer a question I don't know the answer to, but I should've stated that before. Samsung knows how many devices were shipped/sold to the small retailers but would probably have to take a wild guess as to how many they actually sold to end users. Ultimately my point is that Apple deals with much less retailers than Samsung making it easier for them to get accurate end user sales numbers. Compared to Apple's numbers Samsung's numbers are embarrassing but compare Samsung's numbers to those of Motorola, HTC, LG, etc... and let's see who's embarrassed.


     


     


    It is not hard to do.  There are different sets of data available. For your own stores, you know how much you sold. Large stores like Walmart have live inventory control. Executive can look at any point and time and see how much inventory of any given product is available. Other stores likely have similar systems. The stores probably makes this information (at least concerning their own products) available to partners. This is how they know when to order more product. Apple also knows when somebody is registering a new phone. Companies like Apple probably also get activation numbers of new phone from carriers, which is likely a good estimation of how many phones were sold. 

  • Reply 77 of 137
    tbelltbell Posts: 3,146member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    Because they deal with many more than Apple does, many being of the mom and pop variety.


     


     


    Samsung does not need to get the actual sales numbers, it can go by carrier activations for certain models. Apple is not likely reporting actual sales either, but is probably using a statistical model to estimate actual sales (e.g. sales at its own stores, carrier activations, registrations, etc.). 

  • Reply 79 of 137
    relicrelic Posts: 4,735member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post



    If I played the market, I would buy Apple stock.


    Well, I would wait a little to buy, Apple has lost almost half of their Stock value in the last 9 months. It's down from 705 to 430, 380 in April. I would wait till they release the new 5S to buy again, by then Apple might be at 350 and it would be a great buy at that price.
  • Reply 80 of 137
    djrumpydjrumpy Posts: 1,116member
    You guys are way over thinking this. There are two channels for shipping. One to end users directly and one to resellers. The bulk of Apple's channels are direct to end users.

    If something is shipped to an end user, it is SOLD.
    If something is shipped to a reseller, it is just shipped (not sold since the reseller would sell the item). Although Samsung may get a profit at that point, it's meaningless if it never ends up in an end users hands.

    Samsung relies more on 3rd party resellers like Best Buy, Target, Walmart, etc., so when they ship 10 million units, this is to stock their 3rd party resellers.
    When Apple ships 10 million, almost all of those will be to end users. Some also go to Apple stores, which typically sell out immediately, and a trifle make it to third party resellers, which also sell out immediately. Apple 3rd party resellers are typically are lower priority than direct end users sales and Apple Stores, as those same 3rd party resellers often complain that Apple chokes them out of sales.

    As a result, when Samsung says it 'sold' 10 million, it just shipped them to a reseller for resale, but it doesn't mean they ended up in a users hands
    The opposite is true for Apple.
Sign In or Register to comment.