After crowning Samsung as Apple's heir, analysts now rethinking their math

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  • Reply 101 of 137
    djrumpydjrumpy Posts: 1,116member
    Cite? Evidence?

    Because the list of actual 3rd party resellers are TINY by comparison. For example, I live in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, with approx 6 Million or so for the area, give or take, and there are about 10 resellers (not including apple Stores, of which there are about 4). Look for yourself

    https://www.apple.com/buy/

    Most of these are mom and pop, with some notable exceptions like Best Buy, Walmart, etc. and you know as well as any Apple customer that when a new model iPhone is out, you can't find them in stock in any of the big chains. There are entire ecosystems of apps designed just to help someone find a possible 'in stock' item for an iPhone.

    Lastly, the issues with those actual 3rd Party resellers and their problems with Apple shorting them on stock to sell are a matter of public record.

    http://gigaom.com/2011/12/30/apple-sued-over-third-party-reseller-inventory-practices/
  • Reply 102 of 137
    kdarlingkdarling Posts: 1,640member



    Quote:

    Originally Posted by drblank View Post


    I wish the market research would actually list every mfg and product they offer and how many of each are being sold, so we can see breakdowns by individual products.  



     


    There is market research available with that info, but you have to pay big bucks for the reports.   That's how they pay for doing the grunt work of checking parts orders, factory output, customs office records, store sales, etc.


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by genovelle View Post


    No it doesn't.  The Apple vs Samsung trail made that as clear as most already knew.  Samsung was supposedly selling 20 million Galaxy's per quarter in the US but when they were forced to disclose actual sales in court they actually sold 25 million over 2 and a half years. 



     


    Articles that said that confused world sales with US infringed device numbers.  What the trial showed, was that US sales were a fraction of world sales at the time, and that percentage is even lower nowadays.


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DJRumpy View Post



    You guys are way over thinking this. There are two channels for shipping. One to end users directly and one to resellers. The bulk of Apple's channels are direct to end users.


     


    Even in the US, where there are plenty of Apple stores and online buyers, the majority (almost 80%) of iPhone sales are through retailers.  Outside the US, carriers and other retailers would be even more of a majority.


     



     


    (In the US, Apple has 250 stores.  AT&T, Verizon, Best Buy and Sprint have over 6,300.)

  • Reply 103 of 137
    bigmac2bigmac2 Posts: 637member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by geekdad View Post


     

    I am not disputing what you say about the activation but I am curious...how do you know?I bought my iPad 4 several months ago on Craigslist...it was on Verizon. But I have service through AT&T.....process is just to insert the AT&T sim card and restart the iPad and all is good. But then my data speeds did not match up to my other devices so i reset it and reactivated it on AT&T......does that show as a new activation for AT&T? Does AT&T then report it as a new device activation? Since it was not on AT&T before but on Verizon?


     


    Many things goes with the activation process, the cellphone service is one of them and doesn't concern Apple much beside providing the right carrier config file to the device when the sim card is activated. 


     


    Now what concern us here is having a right picture of how much devices is really sold to end users, with an activation process based on a hardware unique identifier this stats is easily obtainable for Apple on both end (From stores sales numbers and users activations)

  • Reply 104 of 137

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    Because they deal with many more than Apple does, many being of the mom and pop variety.


     


    So?  Just because there are "more" doesn't automatically make things impossible.

  • Reply 105 of 137
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by geekdad View Post


     

    So over the weekend I did a factory reset on my iPad.....it then had to be activated through iTunes......so does that count as a sale or new activation?


    I never did a factory reset in my (iPhone, iPad) life. Why do you wanna do it?


  • Reply 106 of 137
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by patrickwalker View Post


     


    So?  Just because there are "more" doesn't automatically make things impossible.



    He's just an apologist. Samsung stated clearly when they ceased to report units sold. The reason was "for competitive reason", not that they had problems accessing data from mom and pop stores.


  • Reply 107 of 137

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DJRumpy View Post



    Because the list of actual 3rd party resellers are TINY by comparison. For example, I live in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, with approx 6 Million or so for the area, give or take, and there are about 10 resellers (not including apple Stores, of which there are about 4). Look for yourself



    https://www.apple.com/buy/



    Most of these are mom and pop, with some notable exceptions like Best Buy, Walmart, etc. and you know as well as any Apple customer that when a new model iPhone is out, you can't find them in stock in any of the big chains. There are entire ecosystems of apps designed just to help someone find a possible 'in stock' item for an iPhone.



    Lastly, the issues with those actual 3rd Party resellers and their problems with Apple shorting them on stock to sell are a matter of public record.



    http://gigaom.com/2011/12/30/apple-sued-over-third-party-reseller-inventory-practices/


    What about the sales via carriers?


     


    Add: I see that KDarling provided some interesting evidence.

  • Reply 108 of 137
    bigmac2bigmac2 Posts: 637member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


    I never did a factory reset in my (iPhone, iPad) life. Why do you wanna do it?




     


    To Geekdad's defence, he got some performance issue because he switched provider. According to his story, the carrier file wasn't updated and limited is performance.  


     


    While I've never been a format-reinstall advocate, I do know sometime it is faster to wipe everything and start over than troubleshooting. 

  • Reply 109 of 137

    Quote:


    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

     


    Google Glass Banned From Google Shareholder Meeting




    Love that! Hypocrites.


     


    Thank you.

  • Reply 110 of 137
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    So?  Just because there are "more" doesn't automatically make things impossible.

    Makes it much more difficult and many probably don't even report back.
  • Reply 111 of 137
    misamisa Posts: 827member
    I was hoping for evidence that Samsung didn't actually sell the 10 million phones in the first month, but there was none.  Calling shipments anything but sales only rings true when the shipments have to be returned.  There is no evidence of that whatsoever.

    Speaking of shipped versus sold, did anyone else notice that Tim Cook announced SHIPMENTS of Mountain Lion in the keynote?  It's at 16:20 if anyone wants to go look.  I take it that most of those copies weren't sales. /s

    Here, let me spare you the effort:

    <img alt="" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="26943" data-type="61" height="219" src="http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/26943/width/350/height/700/flags/LL" style="; width: 350px; height: 219px;" width="350">


    Additionally, there are many manufacturers you can pick on for a lack of updates, but Samsung shouldn't be one of them.  Even the Galaxy S2 is running Jellybean.

    Finally, I think it's fair to say that Samsung copied aspects of iOS early on, but it's laughable to say that they would have to copy iOS 7 (unless you're only talking about the appearance of it) since Apple borrowed so much from Android in its update.

    Shipments does not mean sold. Physical items can be returned back to the manufacturer unsold. Unfortunately Analysts know this, but don't care.

    I doubt Apple borrowed anything from Android. If anything there are throwbacks to MacOS 6 and Windows 3.x
  • Reply 112 of 137
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

    I never did a factory reset in my (iPhone, iPad) life. Why do you wanna do it?

     

    I thought I was clear why......did you read my comments? Please go back and read my comments and you will see why....
  • Reply 113 of 137
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,749member
    misa wrote: »
    Shipments does not mean sold. Physical items can be returned back to the manufacturer unsold.

    Does anyone report those return numbers, either due to unsold/old stock or warranty issues? Not that I'm aware of.
  • Reply 114 of 137
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BigMac2 View Post

     

    To Geekdad's defence, he got some performance issue because he switched provider. According to his story, the carrier file wasn't updated and limited is performance.  

     

    While I've never been a format-reinstall advocate, I do know sometime it is faster to wipe everything and start over than troubleshooting. 

     

    exactly.....AT&T kept having me disable then reenable cellular data to have go out and attach to AT&T...that is not a fix but a work around. So I did a factory reset and set the ipad up as a new and did not restore from the previous backup in iTunes. This seems to somewhat fixed the slow data throughput on my iPad.
  • Reply 115 of 137
    djrumpydjrumpy Posts: 1,116member
    What about the sales via carriers?

    Add: I see that KDarling provided some interesting evidence.

    I don't consider them a classic 3rd party reseller. They are not in the business to sell phones, and often take a loss on such hardware. They sell service contracts for the cellular service itself. It's to be expected that the actual cell phone providers would sell more phones than anyone as most consumers purchase them via their cell provider, which in turn orders them from Apple, and either ships them directly to the end user, or the user can opt to pick them up at the cell provider store. I know as I've done it both ways.

    Notice that the true 3rd party sellers are substantially less than apple (Best buy and whatnot) even though they outnumber Apple stores many thousands of times over. Also see the second link I posted regarding the friction between those same 3rd party resellers and Apple. A cell provider like AT&T or Verizon is not in the same class as Best Buy, and would not be 'shorted' on stock since the primary purpose of these phones is as a cell phone. These others however, or NOT in the business of selling sell phones. It's just a small part of whatever wares they peddle (TV's, CD's, various electronics, etc).
  • Reply 116 of 137
    kdarlingkdarling Posts: 1,640member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by geekdad View Post


    ... so i reset it and reactivated it on AT&T......does that show as a new activation for AT&T? Does AT&T then report it as a new device activation?



     


    AT&T doesn't report just new device activations.   They count every device activation, new or old.


     


    This is why device sales numbers never match up with activation numbers.  The latter includes hand me down and resold devices, which usually average a bit over 10% of total activations (but which can go another 5-10% higher during hot new model introductions, as people shed their old device to get a new one).

  • Reply 117 of 137

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by DJRumpy View Post



    I don't consider them a classic 3rd party reseller. 


    The fact that you don't consider them 'classic' (whatever that means) does not change the fact that they are re-sellers (i.e., they buy from Apple and sell to their customers).

  • Reply 118 of 137
    gwmacgwmac Posts: 1,797member


    With all the flack Samsung has taken over the cheap plastic and low quality build of the phone I would be shocked if the S5 doesn't go metal next year. Apple can really take advantage of this screw up with their new iPhone(s) later this year. iOS 7 will do it's part so some awesome new hardware to use it on could really put Samsung further behind. 


     


    I can say one thing about the HTC One I wish Apple would copy and that is the placement and quality of the speakers on the front. If you have heard one in person I think you will agree that it makes a lot more sense to have the sound pointing towards you rather than away from you. If HTC had a larger marketing budget I think they would eat in to a lot of Samsung sales because it is a nicer phone in a lot of ways. 

  • Reply 119 of 137
    djrumpydjrumpy Posts: 1,116member
    The fact that you don't consider them 'classic' (whatever that means) does not change the fact that they are re-sellers (i.e., they buy from Apple and sell to their customers).

    Hardly. If they were a classic reseller, they couldn't sell their stock at a loss by subsidizing the sale price of the phone like a cell provider does. A third party reseller doesn't do this. Folks like best buy get the items as a reduced cost and sell it for a profit. The cell providers get the buyer to directly pay for the device and they also subsidize the cost of the phone, which is sold at a loss, but they get a return on their investment for the actual service contract over X number of years. Third party resellers do this only when they can't move stock (much like they did when they couldn't sell all of those Apple tablet killers, and had to sell them at a loss to try and recoup their investment). Folks like best buy don't have the option of getting profit back by selling a cell contract for a phone.

    They are not the same. A cell phone provider isn't in the business of selling phones. They sell service contracts. Any profit from phone sales is incidental.
  • Reply 120 of 137
    correctionscorrections Posts: 1,363member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by wakefinance View Post


     


    No, DED, I am well aware that Mountain Lion was only sold as a digital copy.  That's how I got my upgrade and why I advised my mom not to worry about her MBA lacking a CD drive.  My point was sarcastic.  Shipped means sold.


     


    The hobbyist platform thing was absurd the first time you used it and still is.  The only hobbyists developing it are the devs making custom ROMs.  Anyway, as far as iOS taking ideas from Android and Windows, it absolutely did.  I hate to use the word "stealing" because that implies malicious intent, and I don't think that using others' ideas as a stepping stone to something of your own is malicious.  Rather it's a necessary part of progress.  These are some articles you might want to reference with regards to Apple's stepping stones:


     


    http://www.infoworld.com/d/consumerization-of-it/yes-ios-7-copies-windows-phone-and-android-get-used-it-220644


     


    http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/06/apple_ios_7_will_borrowing_ideas_from_microsoft_help_apple_destroy_the_smartphone.html


     


    http://www.eweek.com/mobile/apples-ios-7-buys-time-with-ideas-borrowed-from-other-mobile-platforms/


     


    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2013/06/11/an-open-letter-from-android-to-ios-7/


     


    http://www.droid-life.com/2013/06/10/ios7-vs-android-a-quick-comparison-after-the-wwdc-keynote/



     


    No it wasn't sarcasm, you just didn't think things through when you captured and pasted a keynote image into your rant.


     


    As far as your linked articles go, not one of them delivers any substantial example of Apple looking to Android, WP8 or BB10 for "ideas"


     


    The make absurd comments about iOS 7 looking like BB10 because Home screen app icons dropped their shadows. That's "copying" BB? 

     


    Farhad Manjoo of Slate says "iOS 7 borrows many ideas from other companies’ touchscreen designs, especially Microsoft," but doesn't name a single one before he gets to the point where he said that last year, "I called Windows Phone the best designed mobile OS on the market."



    He seems to think iOS 7 app switching came from WP8 via webOS, but he doesn't seem to know that Palm's webOS team came largely from Apple's iPhone group, and that its CoverFlow representation of apps originated with Apple (not that it matters; this isn't a patented concept). No word of the fact that Microsoft cloned every unique aspect of OS X as closely as possible in Windows Vista, including "new" 3D views that work just like OS X's Expose did. Somewhere along the line, Microsoft became the "source" of this stuff, and iOS 7 is taking it from Microsoft, despite the fact that iOS 7 looks nothing like WP8/Metro. That's some serious Flawgic.


     


    What Android and WP8 fans should be more concerned about, given that both platforms quite obviously shifted from a BlackBerry pushbutton interface of a scaled down, windowing UI to the Home screen of windowless, full screen touch apps that Apple introduced five years ahead of them (in clear response to Apple's success) is the larger problem: neither platform has a cohesive fragment anywhere close to being the size of iOS, and now, they have even fewer exclusive features. They better get crackin on that if they want to be anything other than the last resort UI for phones third world countries.

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