All that based on no data and two weeks of speculation? 5C will sell better than the 4S did last year. The target consumers for the 5C and 5S are different.
Evidence? There is no evidence. The 5C is probably selling better than almost every other phone.
All that based on no data and two weeks of speculation?
He, 512ke was commenting on the author who said that Apple was wrong and missed expectations. He then commented on the story by introducing the notion that it's very likely that Apple is very happy with the results and that analysts are full of malarky. The "might" was the notion that we do not know what Apple is thinking or what their expectations are. So, according to us, the sales of the 5c and %s may be perfectly in line with Apple's expectations. Who cares what the analysts want or say.
I agree. If Apple really wanted to move the 5c's (which apparently they do from all the advertising they have for them) the price should have been $49 w/ contract or $499 off contract to begin with. $49 is much more in the impulse purchase range and would have garnered a lot more attention from the masses without killing Apple's margins.
I don't understand Apple's strategy with the 5c. It doesn't seem priced to sell (the problem isn't that it is "too expensive" at $100 with contract. The problem is that it is only $100 less than the 5s, which is a much better product). At the same time, Apple is advertising it far more than they are the 5s. So it seems like it is being marketed to sell.
I think the production issues with the 5s really caught Apple off guard, forcing them to promote the 5c like the latest greatest, as opposed to like they did the 4s last year.
11.4 million in the channel for the 2012 4th quarter? Wow! I think even that is high..
21.8 million in the channel for both quarters... well, that sounds more in line.
That's why I said 'my guess is' in my first post, because, I agree that number sounds very high. Don't forget though that you need to also factor in direct sales and subtract that from the 11.4. Maybe they sold as many as 2 million directly?? and put 9.4 through the channel?
I'd like to see the 5C's sales after the holiday quarter. I see the 5C mainly aimed at the younger crowd. I've said it a few times here before and I'll say it again, the $99 price point is actually pretty good. Now you can get 2 iPhone 5C's for the price of just 1 iPhone 5S. If you have children who want phones, and/or are due for an update this holiday season you can get 2 phones for $198. I think thats huge at a time where money is hard for people. This is where I see the 5C is cheaper (not cheap, cheaper!). For this reason alone I think it will be a hit this holiday season.
I don't think this phone is really for people to be upgrading from the iPhone 5 - this is for the 3/3GS/4/4S people.
Yeah, upgrading from the 5 to the 5C would be kinda dumb, unless you really really like those bright colors, but again, I don't think this is the audience for the 5C.
Really? What about all those millions of 4/4S 'people' who have 64GB?
To not offer that capacity was (is) a complete mistake.
I'd like to see the 5C's sales after the holiday quarter. I see the 5C mainly aimed at the younger crowd. I've said it a few times here before and I'll say it again, the $99 price point is actually pretty good. Now you can get 2 iPhone 5C's for the price of just 1 iPhone 5S. If you have children who want phones, and/or are due for an update this holiday season you can get 2 phones for $198. I think thats huge at a time where money is hard for people. This is where I see the 5C is cheaper (not cheap, cheaper!). For this reason alone I think it will be a hit this holiday season.
The actual price is not the subsidised American price.
Were they lower than the phone the 5C replaced, last year's 4S at this time?
The guy 1) makes a prediction, 2) sees his prediction is s/not true/WILDLY INCORRECT/, and 3) proclaims that Apple failed to meet expectations.
Yeah, they failed to meet his arbitrary number.
In other words, HE failed. HIS prediction was WRONG.
APPLE might be very happy with their sales numbers for the 5C.
We'll find out in 17 days how Apple feels.
But realize, people waiting to buy a new iPhone weren't waiting for a iPhone 5 'repackage' they were waiting for the 5s.
Now... the 5c is less expensive to make, and has slightly higher (we think) margins than the 5s (and 4s, again, speculation).
The more and more I think about it, the 'c' stands for 'Carrier' or 'Commercial' as it's the one that Carriers want to sell.
I think you'll see the 'c' prominently displayed with '$50-$100' off sales during the holidays. And we haven't seen China Mobile come online yet. I do think that's the market this was targeted for.
And this fits into my theory that the 5c will have more frequent incremental upgrades (my guess it will have at least m7 in the next iteration, and likely in the spring, maybe even another by summer (A7) and by the release of the 6(s?) the 5c will be a 5s in everything but skin (touchID). Hence the buzz will be more continual ('"Improved" 5c', the '"Even Faster" 5c', "FASTEST 5c EVER MADE!"), and will have more reasons to keep 'the $99 phone' in the customer's field of vision.
I'm not sure about the whole "if Steve" argument but I do believe that there is a lot riding on the 5c. It's Tim's first real departure from product tradition and if it flops then the analysts will be shouting, "I told you so!!".
Product tradition? What tradition? Use of color? Use of plastic? Going down-market? Apple has done all these thing before in mobile devices.
So much for the "cannibalization" theory of 5C killing off 5S sales. I'm sure Apple would much prefer that customers buy the higher margin 5S.
Also, Touch ID will be a key enabler for next-gen password security and purchase authorization. I think Apple might disrupt brick-and-mortar retail sales before they disrupt the TV industry. Just go to an Apple Store and buy something with Easy Pay through the Apple Store app for a preview. Easy Pay combines strong loss prevention with inventory control and ties into customers' iTunes accounts. And there are 575 million iTunes accounts. Lots of leverage into the greater retail sector.
What evidence. We have no FACTS that the 5C isn't selling well. The only one who has sales figures Apple. Wall Street analysts are just making guesses. But guesses aren't FACT!!
So I guess if you see a big breaking news story you completely disregard it until all the reports are confirmed?
I think the production issues with the 5s really caught Apple off guard, forcing them to promote the 5c like the latest greatest, as opposed to like they did the 4s last year.
I don't understand Apple's strategy with the 5c. It doesn't seem priced to sell (the problem isn't that it is "too expensive" at $100 with contract. The problem is that it is only $100 less than the 5s, which is a much better product). At the same time, Apple is advertising it far more than they are the 5s. So it seems like it is being marketed to sell.
I think the production issues with the 5s really caught Apple off guard, forcing them to promote the 5c like the latest greatest, as opposed to like they did the 4s last year.
The average joe/jane is more price aware than us. To them it's $100 less and thAts all that matters.
Ehhh? so sales are bad, but it's 2nd best selling phone in ATT/Sprint and 3rd best at Verizon and T-Mobile.. Beating out all but iPhone 5S and Galaxy S 4 at Verizon/Tmo.. and it's soft?
For a phone doing poorly, it's selling awfully well.. heh.. I think we have another case of Analysts setting expectations for failure.. again..
Exactly. The only actual facts out there indicate that the 5S and 5C have been selling quite well. Kuo's prediction is insane.
I agree. If Apple really wanted to move the 5c's (which apparently they do from all the advertising they have for them) the price should have been $49 w/ contract or $499 off contract to begin with. $49 is much more in the impulse purchase range and would have garnered a lot more attention from the masses without killing Apple's margins.
Yet the 5C is the second best selling phone in the US in September - even though it had only half a month while all the other phones were sold for the full month. Why would Apple cut the price further? And what expertise do you have that makes you better able to set prices and market strategies than Apple? How many multibillion dollar products have you produced?
Besides, if you're going to make that argument, you need to carry it to its conclusion. Since the 5C outsold every other phone except the 5S in September (US sales, major carriers), then by your logic EVERY OTHER PHONE MANUFACTURER on the planet needs to be cutting their price. In fact, they should be paying you to take a phone off their hands.
In any case although Kuo is the best analyst, he is saying - as already pointed out - that Apple massively overstuffed the channel with 10 million sold ( into channel ) in one week, and now only 11 million will sell into Christmas.
Thats nuts.
It's even more nuts when you consider the rest of the story. The problem with Kuo's predictions is that they don't make sense. Apple sold 9 M phones the first weekend. Every estimate says that the 5S outsold the 5C by a wide margin, so there were perhaps 3 M 5C phones sold the first weekend. Even with less than 2 weeks on the market, the phone is one of the top sellers for every US carrier. Kuo is predicting 11 M sales for the month (which essentially means that sales will ACCELERATE after the first weekend) but then calls it a flop. And if Munster were correct and a lot of those first weekend sales were just filling the channel, then the acceleration at the end of the month is even greater. Then, Kuo predicted that sales (which were accelerating in September) fall off a cliff and they'll sell fewer phones in the 3 month Christmas quarter than in the first 10 days.
And Apple have a clear answer here. Replace the 4S with an 8G iPhone 5C ( even with a price increase). Nothing to worry about long term. Remember the original iPhone was overpriced.
Why? They have a good, better, best strategy which appears to be working. The 'free' 4S is for the cheap bottom feeders. A price increase cuts out that group of customers.
OK, so you don't understand their strategy. Let's put that in perspective:
Apple is, by far, the industry leader in terms of innovation and successful market positioning.
The 5C sold millions of units on launch and is the #2 phone for the month of Septermber at 3 of the 4 US carriers (#3 at the fourth) - even though it was only available for half the month.
I would say the problem is on your end, not Apple's.
Why get a Volkswagen when you can get a Mercedes for $100 more.
What a surprise - as I had originally predicted, Cook's obsession with analyst-driven crap leads to this. ZERO innovation and little price advantage over the great iPhone 5, even in emerging markets used to higher tariffs.
Comments
All that based on no data and two weeks of speculation? 5C will sell better than the 4S did last year. The target consumers for the 5C and 5S are different.
Evidence? There is no evidence. The 5C is probably selling better than almost every other phone.
All that based on no data and two weeks of speculation?
He, 512ke was commenting on the author who said that Apple was wrong and missed expectations. He then commented on the story by introducing the notion that it's very likely that Apple is very happy with the results and that analysts are full of malarky. The "might" was the notion that we do not know what Apple is thinking or what their expectations are. So, according to us, the sales of the 5c and %s may be perfectly in line with Apple's expectations. Who cares what the analysts want or say.
I thought this was pretty obvious.
I'll wait for the official numbers.
It's unlikely that Apple will say how many 5c models they've sold, so we'll always be stuck with analysts' guesswork.
Personally, I don't see a problem; if more people are buying the 5s then the 5c has done its job.
I agree. If Apple really wanted to move the 5c's (which apparently they do from all the advertising they have for them) the price should have been $49 w/ contract or $499 off contract to begin with. $49 is much more in the impulse purchase range and would have garnered a lot more attention from the masses without killing Apple's margins.
I don't understand Apple's strategy with the 5c. It doesn't seem priced to sell (the problem isn't that it is "too expensive" at $100 with contract. The problem is that it is only $100 less than the 5s, which is a much better product). At the same time, Apple is advertising it far more than they are the 5s. So it seems like it is being marketed to sell.
I think the production issues with the 5s really caught Apple off guard, forcing them to promote the 5c like the latest greatest, as opposed to like they did the 4s last year.
11.4 million in the channel for the 2012 4th quarter? Wow! I think even that is high..
21.8 million in the channel for both quarters... well, that sounds more in line.
That's why I said 'my guess is' in my first post, because, I agree that number sounds very high. Don't forget though that you need to also factor in direct sales and subtract that from the 11.4. Maybe they sold as many as 2 million directly?? and put 9.4 through the channel?
iOS 7 runs near perfectly on my 4S.
It also runs better on my iPhone 4 than iOS6 did. Although, I am seeing a few (rare) crashes, but did not see any at all with iOS6.
I'd like to see the 5C's sales after the holiday quarter. I see the 5C mainly aimed at the younger crowd. I've said it a few times here before and I'll say it again, the $99 price point is actually pretty good. Now you can get 2 iPhone 5C's for the price of just 1 iPhone 5S. If you have children who want phones, and/or are due for an update this holiday season you can get 2 phones for $198. I think thats huge at a time where money is hard for people. This is where I see the 5C is cheaper (not cheap, cheaper!). For this reason alone I think it will be a hit this holiday season.
I don't think this phone is really for people to be upgrading from the iPhone 5 - this is for the 3/3GS/4/4S people.
Yeah, upgrading from the 5 to the 5C would be kinda dumb, unless you really really like those bright colors, but again, I don't think this is the audience for the 5C.
Really? What about all those millions of 4/4S 'people' who have 64GB?
To not offer that capacity was (is) a complete mistake.
Why should we treat these stories any different?
Because the 5C is being discounted by many retailers?
See, e.g., http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/walmart-drops-price-phone-5c-45-best-buys/story?id=20474818
The actual price is not the subsidised American price.
Lower than WHO expected?
Were 5C sales lower than APPLE expected?
Were they lower than the phone the 5C replaced, last year's 4S at this time?
The guy 1) makes a prediction, 2) sees his prediction is s/not true/WILDLY INCORRECT/, and 3) proclaims that Apple failed to meet expectations.
Yeah, they failed to meet his arbitrary number.
In other words, HE failed. HIS prediction was WRONG.
APPLE might be very happy with their sales numbers for the 5C.
We'll find out in 17 days how Apple feels.
But realize, people waiting to buy a new iPhone weren't waiting for a iPhone 5 'repackage' they were waiting for the 5s.
Now... the 5c is less expensive to make, and has slightly higher (we think) margins than the 5s (and 4s, again, speculation).
The more and more I think about it, the 'c' stands for 'Carrier' or 'Commercial' as it's the one that Carriers want to sell.
I think you'll see the 'c' prominently displayed with '$50-$100' off sales during the holidays. And we haven't seen China Mobile come online yet. I do think that's the market this was targeted for.
And this fits into my theory that the 5c will have more frequent incremental upgrades (my guess it will have at least m7 in the next iteration, and likely in the spring, maybe even another by summer (A7) and by the release of the 6(s?) the 5c will be a 5s in everything but skin (touchID). Hence the buzz will be more continual ('"Improved" 5c', the '"Even Faster" 5c', "FASTEST 5c EVER MADE!"), and will have more reasons to keep 'the $99 phone' in the customer's field of vision.
But- but- but-............ Jony Ive designed them!
Personally I love 'em.
Now iOS 7- that's another story.
Lower than expected by Apple, or lower than projected by clueless and corrupt Wall Street analysts?
Product tradition? What tradition? Use of color? Use of plastic? Going down-market? Apple has done all these thing before in mobile devices.
I'm sure Apple would much prefer that customers buy the higher margin 5S.
Also, Touch ID will be a key enabler for next-gen password security and purchase authorization.
I think Apple might disrupt brick-and-mortar retail sales before they disrupt the TV industry.
Just go to an Apple Store and buy something with Easy Pay through the Apple Store app for a preview.
Easy Pay combines strong loss prevention with inventory control and ties into customers' iTunes accounts.
And there are 575 million iTunes accounts. Lots of leverage into the greater retail sector.
What evidence. We have no FACTS that the 5C isn't selling well. The only one who has sales figures Apple. Wall Street analysts are just making guesses. But guesses aren't FACT!!
So I guess if you see a big breaking news story you completely disregard it until all the reports are confirmed?
Correlation always equals causation?
The average joe/jane is more price aware than us. To them it's $100 less and thAts all that matters.
Exactly. The only actual facts out there indicate that the 5S and 5C have been selling quite well. Kuo's prediction is insane.
Yet the 5C is the second best selling phone in the US in September - even though it had only half a month while all the other phones were sold for the full month. Why would Apple cut the price further? And what expertise do you have that makes you better able to set prices and market strategies than Apple? How many multibillion dollar products have you produced?
Besides, if you're going to make that argument, you need to carry it to its conclusion. Since the 5C outsold every other phone except the 5S in September (US sales, major carriers), then by your logic EVERY OTHER PHONE MANUFACTURER on the planet needs to be cutting their price. In fact, they should be paying you to take a phone off their hands.
It's even more nuts when you consider the rest of the story. The problem with Kuo's predictions is that they don't make sense. Apple sold 9 M phones the first weekend. Every estimate says that the 5S outsold the 5C by a wide margin, so there were perhaps 3 M 5C phones sold the first weekend. Even with less than 2 weeks on the market, the phone is one of the top sellers for every US carrier. Kuo is predicting 11 M sales for the month (which essentially means that sales will ACCELERATE after the first weekend) but then calls it a flop. And if Munster were correct and a lot of those first weekend sales were just filling the channel, then the acceleration at the end of the month is even greater. Then, Kuo predicted that sales (which were accelerating in September) fall off a cliff and they'll sell fewer phones in the 3 month Christmas quarter than in the first 10 days.
It's just a totally irrational prediction.
Why? They have a good, better, best strategy which appears to be working. The 'free' 4S is for the cheap bottom feeders. A price increase cuts out that group of customers.
OK, so you don't understand their strategy. Let's put that in perspective:
Apple is, by far, the industry leader in terms of innovation and successful market positioning.
The 5C sold millions of units on launch and is the #2 phone for the month of Septermber at 3 of the 4 US carriers (#3 at the fourth) - even though it was only available for half the month.
I would say the problem is on your end, not Apple's.
Plastic not so fantastic.
Why get a Volkswagen when you can get a Mercedes for $100 more.
What a surprise - as I had originally predicted, Cook's obsession with analyst-driven crap leads to this. ZERO innovation and little price advantage over the great iPhone 5, even in emerging markets used to higher tariffs.
Well deserved, if I may say.