Apple may have sold upwards of 60 million iPhones over holiday quarter

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
With Apple set to report first quarter financial results next week, many Cupertino-watching analysts are predicting the company to have sold a record number of iPhones during the 3-month period that ended late December.

iPhone Unit Sales
Source: Fortune


Each of the 44 analysts whose predictions have been collated by Fortune's Philip Elmer-Dewitt foresee sales of at least 50 million handsets, with a consensus of 55.3 million units that would represent a 16 percent increase in sales from the year-ago quarter. The panel consists of 27 professional and 17 independent analysts.

Merill Lynch's Scott Craig is the most bullish of the professional group with an estimate of 58.5 million units, while Pacific Crest's Andy Hargreaves brings up the rear with 50.93 million.

Most well-known names skew toward the upper end of the range. Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore predicts sales of 58 million handsets, Evercore's Robert Cihra sees 57 million, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster comes in at 55.5 million, and Cowen & Company's Timothy Arcuri has Apple penciled in at 55 million.

The list is bookended by independent analysts with a connection to the Braeburn Group, a loose affiliation of amateur Apple watchers led by Faizal Kara's 59.73 million unit projection. Ilari Scheinin presents the bear case with an even 50 million units.

While the first quarter does not include sales from the long-awaited China Mobile partnership, it does include those from another new Asian carrier partner, Japan's NTT DoCoMo. Apple will reveal their final numbers on Jan. 27.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 103
    straskstrask Posts: 107member
    Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?
  • Reply 2 of 103
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,214member

    We will have a better idea after Verizon numbers tomorrow. Until then, its very speculative.

  • Reply 3 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by strask View Post



    Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?



    "Upwards" of 60 million iPhones.

  • Reply 4 of 103

    Yay, the stock is going to PLUMMET!! :rolleyes:

  • Reply 5 of 103
    rob53rob53 Posts: 1,974member
    "upwards of 60" means close to 60. Literary license. :-)

    Of course, if Apple doesn't reach these guesses, AAPL will drop but it will end up dropping for no reason anyway. Someone will find something they don't like and punish AAPL.
  • Reply 6 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    strask wrote: »
    Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?

    I noticed that, too. It really should be approaching.
  • Reply 7 of 103
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    herbapou wrote: »
    We will have a better idea after Verizon numbers tomorrow. Until then, its very speculative.
    Not so sure about that. When Apple reported that blowout quarter in Jan 2012 I remember the clowns on CNBC being shocked at how good it was, because they had been using AT&T and Verizon as a gauge. Don't think that works anymore with so much of Apple's sales coming from overseas.
  • Reply 8 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    rob53 wrote: »
    "upwards of 60" means close to 60. Literary license. :-)

    Of course, if Apple doesn't reach these guesses, AAPL will drop but it will end up dropping for no reason anyway. Someone will find something they don't like and punish AAPL.

    "Upwards" of 60 million iPhones.

    It means the higher level is more than the value stated. It does not mean close to that value but never reaching it.
  • Reply 9 of 103
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    rob53 wrote: »
    "upwards of 60" means close to 60. Literary license. :-)

    Of course, if Apple doesn't reach these guesses, AAPL will drop but it will end up dropping for no reason anyway. Someone will find something they don't like and punish AAPL.
    I know two family members that recently purchased 5S. The space gray is really nice. For some reason it looked thinne than my silver 5, not sure why....
  • Reply 10 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    herbapou wrote: »
    We will have a better idea after Verizon numbers tomorrow. Until then, its very speculative.

    It's speculative until we get Apple's numbers.
  • Reply 11 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

     
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by strask View Post



    Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?




    I noticed that, too. It really should be approaching.

    The average (not ‘consensus’, as AI’s writers call it) is 55.3M. AI just liberally rounded it up to 60M.

     

    I guess, using an equivalent argument, it now makes sense to round up the 60 to….. 100M phones! Why not.

  • Reply 12 of 103
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 14,195moderator
    solipsismx wrote: »
    I noticed that, too. It really should be approaching.

    Or in the original sentence something like:

    Apple may have sold as many as 60 million iPhones...

    "upwards of" implies in excess of 60 million but the highest analyst estimate is 59.7m. The headline could be the author's opinion though. His guess as good as any analyst's.

    I'm going for 100 million and will proclaim disappointment if it fails to reach this.
  • Reply 13 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    The average (not ‘consensus’, as AI’s writers call it) is 55.3M. AI just liberally rounded it up to 60M.

    I guess, using an equivalent argument, it now makes sense to round up the 60 to….. 100M phones! Why not.

    We don't have to use averages for this term. One analyst states 59.73MM, but I don't think you can accurately use that term after using the hundredth value and not reaching 60MM.


    edit: As Marvin notes, If the author wants to state they think they may have sold 60MM or even mention some margin or error that could place it at least as high as 60MM then it would make the title match the article, but this is such a minor consideration.
  • Reply 14 of 103
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,214member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Not so sure about that. When Apple reported that blowout quarter in Jan 2012 I remember the clowns on CNBC being shocked at how good it was, because they had been using AT&T and Verizon as a gauge. Don't think that works anymore with so much of Apple's sales coming from overseas.

     

    Last year I was pretty spot on on the number using VZ number and market share estimates. CNBC have a lot of guess and some of there staff are very bias, so you need to know which ones are more fair because they will always have anti-Apple talks no matter what.

     

    I am hoping we get 60+ or we will have yet another year of growth decelaration in unit sales. On the other hand, YoY margins should be better. Market share improvements in the US points to a big number but I still need to see a sale sample (VZ) to make up my mind.

  • Reply 15 of 103
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,198member
    Where are the damned comments!
  • Reply 16 of 103
    Well obviously people are stockpiling iPhones because now that Google owns military robots, it's only a matter of time before Cupertino is raised to the ground by robotic dogs outfitted with rocket launchers. Mind you, the dogs will still be running on Gingerbread, and I'm not sure the new rocket launcher framework is fully compatible with Gingerbread. The dogs might do what all Gingerbread products do, and turn on their masters.
  • Reply 17 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by strask View Post



    Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?

    I said that number a few threads ago. I have slightly better records over the top-rated analysts and I'm also better looking.

     

    It seems logical to me that my numbers were used for every single worth-reading prediction.

  • Reply 18 of 103
    The analyst numbers are bunk and all, but it seems like 60MM units still isn't much in the way of growth. I would have thought 65MM would be a more reasonable expectation, but it doesn't look like that is in the realm of possibilities at this point.

    My logic, which is completely unscientific: ~37MM units in 2012FQ1 out of contract + Blackberry's collapse + increasing smart phone penetration.

    Really though, I think the iPad numbers will be more important for the stock. 30MM would be huge, and I imagine there could be a nice ASP bump.
  • Reply 19 of 103
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member

    Whatever it is, it will be fantastic, and will disappoint "analysts"

  • Reply 20 of 103
    MacProMacPro Posts: 17,868member
    tdknox wrote: »
    Yay, the stock is going to PLUMMET!! :rolleyes:

    If this is true, and I suspect it might be ... not to mention iPad sales ... I am sure Wall Street will find a way to justify negative connotations to the news.
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