Apple may have sold upwards of 60 million iPhones over holiday quarter
With Apple set to report first quarter financial results next week, many Cupertino-watching analysts are predicting the company to have sold a record number of iPhones during the 3-month period that ended late December.
Each of the 44 analysts whose predictions have been collated by Fortune's Philip Elmer-Dewitt foresee sales of at least 50 million handsets, with a consensus of 55.3 million units that would represent a 16 percent increase in sales from the year-ago quarter. The panel consists of 27 professional and 17 independent analysts.
Merill Lynch's Scott Craig is the most bullish of the professional group with an estimate of 58.5 million units, while Pacific Crest's Andy Hargreaves brings up the rear with 50.93 million.
Most well-known names skew toward the upper end of the range. Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore predicts sales of 58 million handsets, Evercore's Robert Cihra sees 57 million, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster comes in at 55.5 million, and Cowen & Company's Timothy Arcuri has Apple penciled in at 55 million.
The list is bookended by independent analysts with a connection to the Braeburn Group, a loose affiliation of amateur Apple watchers led by Faizal Kara's 59.73 million unit projection. Ilari Scheinin presents the bear case with an even 50 million units.
While the first quarter does not include sales from the long-awaited China Mobile partnership, it does include those from another new Asian carrier partner, Japan's NTT DoCoMo. Apple will reveal their final numbers on Jan. 27.
Each of the 44 analysts whose predictions have been collated by Fortune's Philip Elmer-Dewitt foresee sales of at least 50 million handsets, with a consensus of 55.3 million units that would represent a 16 percent increase in sales from the year-ago quarter. The panel consists of 27 professional and 17 independent analysts.
Merill Lynch's Scott Craig is the most bullish of the professional group with an estimate of 58.5 million units, while Pacific Crest's Andy Hargreaves brings up the rear with 50.93 million.
Most well-known names skew toward the upper end of the range. Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore predicts sales of 58 million handsets, Evercore's Robert Cihra sees 57 million, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster comes in at 55.5 million, and Cowen & Company's Timothy Arcuri has Apple penciled in at 55 million.
The list is bookended by independent analysts with a connection to the Braeburn Group, a loose affiliation of amateur Apple watchers led by Faizal Kara's 59.73 million unit projection. Ilari Scheinin presents the bear case with an even 50 million units.
While the first quarter does not include sales from the long-awaited China Mobile partnership, it does include those from another new Asian carrier partner, Japan's NTT DoCoMo. Apple will reveal their final numbers on Jan. 27.
Comments
We will have a better idea after Verizon numbers tomorrow. Until then, its very speculative.
Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?
"Upwards" of 60 million iPhones.
Yay, the stock is going to PLUMMET!!
Of course, if Apple doesn't reach these guesses, AAPL will drop but it will end up dropping for no reason anyway. Someone will find something they don't like and punish AAPL.
I noticed that, too. It really should be approaching.
It means the higher level is more than the value stated. It does not mean close to that value but never reaching it.
It's speculative until we get Apple's numbers.
Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?
I noticed that, too. It really should be approaching.
The average (not ‘consensus’, as AI’s writers call it) is 55.3M. AI just liberally rounded it up to 60M.
I guess, using an equivalent argument, it now makes sense to round up the 60 to….. 100M phones! Why not.
Or in the original sentence something like:
Apple may have sold as many as 60 million iPhones...
"upwards of" implies in excess of 60 million but the highest analyst estimate is 59.7m. The headline could be the author's opinion though. His guess as good as any analyst's.
I'm going for 100 million and will proclaim disappointment if it fails to reach this.
We don't have to use averages for this term. One analyst states 59.73MM, but I don't think you can accurately use that term after using the hundredth value and not reaching 60MM.
edit: As Marvin notes, If the author wants to state they think they may have sold 60MM or even mention some margin or error that could place it at least as high as 60MM then it would make the title match the article, but this is such a minor consideration.
Not so sure about that. When Apple reported that blowout quarter in Jan 2012 I remember the clowns on CNBC being shocked at how good it was, because they had been using AT&T and Verizon as a gauge. Don't think that works anymore with so much of Apple's sales coming from overseas.
Last year I was pretty spot on on the number using VZ number and market share estimates. CNBC have a lot of guess and some of there staff are very bias, so you need to know which ones are more fair because they will always have anti-Apple talks no matter what.
I am hoping we get 60+ or we will have yet another year of growth decelaration in unit sales. On the other hand, YoY margins should be better. Market share improvements in the US points to a big number but I still need to see a sale sample (VZ) to make up my mind.
Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?
I said that number a few threads ago. I have slightly better records over the top-rated analysts and I'm also better looking.
It seems logical to me that my numbers were used for every single worth-reading prediction.
My logic, which is completely unscientific: ~37MM units in 2012FQ1 out of contract + Blackberry's collapse + increasing smart phone penetration.
Really though, I think the iPad numbers will be more important for the stock. 30MM would be huge, and I imagine there could be a nice ASP bump.
Whatever it is, it will be fantastic, and will disappoint "analysts"
If this is true, and I suspect it might be ... not to mention iPad sales ... I am sure Wall Street will find a way to justify negative connotations to the news.