So Apple's getting in the game of vaporwear? It seems odd that they would announce something in the fall but not have it available to ship for the holidays. If it's not ready why announce it now?
Why was the iPhone announced months before the release. Why was the iPad. For the same reason this might be. The FCC. All applications are public record. Apple might be able to get them to hold back that the application was filed but when the whole thing is approved, its going to get out. Apple's choice is to let it and have someone else announce it or go ahead and do it themselves.
Here's an idea. Introduce it at the Sept 9th event. Tell the world the approximate date it will ship. Tell the world that Apple will preview it in stores for a two, or maybe three, week period beginning on the date the new iPhones go on sale in Apple stores.
Cue the stores of stores being robbed for display units.
The might have to do this to get developer buy in. In particular this kind of functionality will need devs, and therefore I believe there will be a limited release to people who are devs.
Yeah ...
There is nothing in the iOS beta 5 (that anyone has found) to support a specific iWatch or wearable.
There was no iOS Beta 6 release, last week, to developers -- though carrier partners got a newer beta.
The next drop is due 9/1 (Labor Day) or 9/2 ...
This would normally be the GM release (with request for app store submissions) for iDevices announced 9/9 with availability ~= 1 week later.
The iOS 8 SDK includes pretty flexible screen size capabilities, already. And, assumably, the system software for the new iPhones will scale existing apps ... so developers aren't faced with much difficulty or a hard deadline to support new screen sizes.
If there are iWatch/iWearable device announcements on 9/9 with imminent delivery -- this gives developers zero warning/ability to support them.
From this I deduce that if Apple announces iWatch/iWearable devices on 9/9, they will have delivery dates in late October at the earliest --
Assuming that a new iOS 8 release supporting the iWatch/iWearable devices is made available to developers on 9/9.
Then, somewhere later, in all this comes new iPads and new AppleTV with iOS 8 enhancements for things like split screen (run 2 apps at once in foreground), drag and drop, stylus support, apps on the AppleTV, AppleTV [smart] Home Server ...
Remember this is about "managing expectations". A company like Apple would have a prerelease, like suggested, to keep the speculation from getting out of hand. When people's expectations grow wildly beyond reality a company has to cool the speculation or risk disappointing customers.
It seems odd that they would announce something in the fall but not have it available to ship for the holidays.
If a product depends upon the holidays for sales it won't be much of a product for Apple. Beyond that you seem to forget that for years all of Apples hardware was released in Janurary.
If it's not ready why announce it now?
Did you not read about managing expectations.
Unless Apple is that worried about it leaking? Or are they getting in the business of showing off prototypes so Cook can say to Wall Street "see we are innovating"? I'd love to call this rumor bunk, but the source is usually very accurate.
Really your perspective is totally screwed up here.
So let's take a historical look at this from a developers perspective:
When the iPhone was announced, it was announced early (five months) because it needed to be tested in the wild and get FCC approval. When it went on sale, it was expensive and of course everyone wanted to build apps for it. Steve Jobs famously said on stage that you could build web apps for it. Do you think that was their actual intention? No. I don't think so. I think they needed to get the device to market which gave them a year to get things like Xcode and the App Store up and running. Apple is the king of MVP (minimal viable product) and this created a lot of buzz.
So fast forward to 2010. Apple announces the iPad but gives a lot less lead time. But at this point, people were already making apps and they smartly allowed iPhone apps to work on the iPad. This lead time allowed developers to either make an iPad version of their app before actual hardware was available to test on, but also allowed their apps to work on the new device. This made the iPad a great tool "out of the box", but also allowed developers to very quickly ramp up their apps. I made one of the first apps for the iPad, but still had to wait for the iPad to arrive so I could test, fix and upload to the app store.
Fast forward to 2014. Apple is preparing to bring out a new device category. I call it "new" because it's not going to be like any other smart watch (I don't believe). The trouble is that this time they are shrinking the size of the device and the screen. They can't just have apps run in a stretched mode, but need great apps on release. They now have millions of developers anticipating something new. How do you roll out a new device category to the public with great apps?
Simple. You invite as many media and high-profile developers as you can to an announcement. You make the SDK immediately available and ship devices to DEVELOPERS in 2-4 weeks. While they are busy making the latest and greatest stuff, you ramp up production now that the cat is out of the bag and you ship in December. That's why the announcement is so early this year. That's why there is a huge mystery structure outside of the venue. This gives developers about 2-3 months to make great stuff and tell all the millions of their users that something is coming.
Apple simple fans the flame and will have an immediate success if done right.
Not true when they won't ship the product relatively soon. The original iPhone as a new product was announced Jan 2007 with no hands on demo units. First hands on were at the end of June.
The first iPhone reveal has an (alleged) interesting behind the scenes story where at the time of announcement, the iPhone was still very much a work in progress. The demo during the announcement was the only way they found to show all of the features without having the phone crashing, the so called golden-path. They then had a few months to fix it all before putting it into production. I hope this isn't the same for the wearable product (or any for that matter), and what will be announced will be much closer to production that the original iPhone was when it was announced.
If there is a gap between announcement and availability, we can all surely bet the photocopiers are coming out in the meantime.
So is the watch [a new product category]. It’s exactly the same.
That's not fair - the poster clearly meant that the iPhone used hard-to-get-a-hold of parts because it was such a new category (not for Apple, but for the industry); Blackberry even called an emergency meeting where they thought that this thing can't be real IIRC. No way any company could catch up in 6 months to iPhone in 2007. (Still they only did it because it has to clear FCC, not because they had a jump on competition)
For an "iWatch" the competition could see the renders/demo product and in 6 months easily copy the design and turn out a production model with the ubiquitous availability of touch screens, mobile processors etc. It's a different landscape for sure.
I think the only reason Apple would announce it early is because it has to go though FCC, because they promised stuff this year (sort of and I really doubt this would be a reason), or because it has to go through some other regulatory body (like a Health arm of the government or however it works down there). Or MAYBE to show it to developers, but it seems like WWDC would have been the time for that, if it wasn't in production yet anyway.
So let's take a historical look at this from a developers perspective:
When the iPhone was announced, it was announced early (five months) because it needed to be tested in the wild and get FCC approval. When it went on sale, it was expensive and of course everyone wanted to build apps for it. Steve Jobs famously said on stage that you could build web apps for it. Do you think that was their actual intention? No. I don't think so. I think they needed to get the device to market which gave them a year to get things like Xcode and the App Store up and running. Apple is the king of MVP (minimal viable product) and this created a lot of buzz.
So fast forward to 2010. Apple announces the iPad but gives a lot less lead time. But at this point, people were already making apps and they smartly allowed iPhone apps to work on the iPad. This lead time allowed developers to either make an iPad version of their app before actual hardware was available to test on, but also allowed their apps to work on the new device. This made the iPad a great tool "out of the box", but also allowed developers to very quickly ramp up their apps. I made one of the first apps for the iPad, but still had to wait for the iPad to arrive so I could test, fix and upload to the app store.
Fast forward to 2014. Apple is preparing to bring out a new device category. I call it "new" because it's not going to be like any other smart watch (I don't believe). The trouble is that this time they are shrinking the size of the device and the screen. They can't just have apps run in a stretched mode, but need great apps on release. They now have millions of developers anticipating something new. How do you roll out a new device category to the public with great apps?
Simple. You invite as many media and high-profile developers as you can to an announcement. You make the SDK immediately available and ship devices to DEVELOPERS in 2-4 weeks. While they are busy making the latest and greatest stuff, you ramp up production now that the cat is out of the bag and you ship in December. That's why the announcement is so early this year. That's why there is a huge mystery structure outside of the venue. This gives developers about 2-3 months to make great stuff and tell all the millions of their users that something is coming.
Apple simple fans the flame and will have an immediate success if done right.
This makes more sense than anything else I've read, here or otherwise.
My grandson's birthday is 9/5. He wants a new watch. He is trying to decide on popular watches costing between $80 and $150 (the family would all contribute).
I suggested that he might want to wait for the 9/9 announcement as Apple is rumored to be announcing a watch.
After thinking about it for a while, he said: "No, if I got the new iWatch -- it'd only get ripped off at school."
He has an iPhone 5 and about 80% of his friends/classmates have iPhones ...
I guess being first with the latest iDevice has its risks ...
The might have to do this to get developer buy in. In particular this kind of functionality will need devs, and therefore I believe there will be a limited release to people who are devs.
Why do you believe Apple will give developers a play here?
Good. I've said from the very beginning, it does not make sense to ship this during the extremely busy fall/christmas where they have enough new products to sell. Showing it off now and selling in 2015 makes perfect sense. There's pros and cons to every approach, but but it's fucking mind-numbing how some of you can call this "vaporware". This is Apple we're talking about, they're not in that business. The iPhone and iPad were shown off much earlier than launch- they were new product categories, and so is this, no matter how many shitty smartwatches are out today.
my guess is its all about a quality experience. the device really has no 3rd party apps right now. (picture your iphone with no 3rd party apps)
so, end the rumors, release the SDK to allow all of those (rumored) health care entities create their useful software for the device. that will allow for a better and useful item to be on your wrist from day one.
So Apple's getting in the game of vaporwear? It seems odd that they would announce something in the fall but not have it available to ship for the holidays. If it's not ready why announce it now? Unless Apple is that worried about it leaking? Or are they getting in the business of showing off prototypes so Cook can say to Wall Street "see we are innovating"? I'd love to call this rumor bunk, but the source is usually very accurate.
Not the 'wearable' market Apple was aiming for I'm sure :P
The 5 was a GREAT phone but people expected some kind of physics-defying magical miracle. When that didn't happen the stock slumped.
Same thing could happen now -- people will be bummed when they discover the Apple wearable does not offer magical spells or actual teleportation or the option to cure major diseases.
Expectations are so high disappointment is guaranteed in the short term. That's why it makes sense to bundle the 2 announcements, the slightly bummer (the wearable that won't project holograms) and the candy (new phones available now!).
Of course, a year from now, both the new phones and the wearable will be rocking the sales.
This is just about managing short term expectations, in my uninformed ignorant personal opinion of course!
The might have to do this to get developer buy in. In particular this kind of functionality will need devs, and therefore I believe there will be a limited release to people who are devs.
Why do you believe Apple will give developers a play here?
Do you actually believe that Apple can release a device like this without developer support?
I might have agreed under the Steve Jobs era (Apple had been screwed over by Microsoft for their openness -- and Steve never forgot).
IMO, one of the overarching messages of WWDC 2014 was a new openness in Apple's relationship to the world and especially to developers.
It would be a big mistake to limit developer access to Apple's iWatch/iWearable devices -- thus giving developers less incentive to support Apple devices than, say, the Pebble, or Android wearables.
We are entering an era where timing (more than capability or style ) is becoming the most important aspect of a product's success.
Ballmer chasséd around yelling: "Developers, Developers, Developers ... "
Shakespeare said it better:
There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.
IMO, developers are the force that drives the tide ...
Remember this is about "managing expectations". A company like Apple would have a prerelease, like suggested, to keep the speculation from getting out of hand. When people's expectations grow wildly beyond reality a company has to cool the speculation or risk disappointing customers.
If a product depends upon the holidays for sales it won't be much of a product for Apple. Beyond that you seem to forget that for years all of Apples hardware was released in Janurary.
Did you not read about managing expectations.
Really your perspective is totally screwed up here.
But when people like me have complained about most if not all hardware being announced in the fall the response is that it makes total sense because the holiday season is when people buy things. I'm not arguing that Apple should announce everything in the fall, far from it. It just seems odd to announce something in the fall and not have it available for Christmas. This seems like the kind if device that would be a great Christmas gift.
my guess is its all about a quality experience. the device really has no 3rd party apps right now. (picture your iphone with no 3rd party apps)
so, end the rumors, release the SDK to allow all of those (rumored) health care entities create their useful software for the device. that will allow for a better and useful item to be on your wrist from day one.
Wouldn't the World Wide Developers Conference be the place to release an SDK? I mean that's the event developers attend. These hardware events are usually just for the press.
That's not fair - the poster clearly meant that the iPhone used hard-to-get-a-hold of parts because it was such a new category (not for Apple, but for the industry); Blackberry even called an emergency meeting where they thought that this thing can't be real IIRC. No way any company could catch up in 6 months to iPhone in 2007. (Still they only did it because it has to clear FCC, not because they had a jump on competition)
For an "iWatch" the competition could see the renders/demo product and in 6 months easily copy the design and turn out a production model with the ubiquitous availability of touch screens, mobile processors etc. It's a different landscape for sure.
I think the only reason Apple would announce it early is because it has to go though FCC, because they promised stuff this year (sort of and I really doubt this would be a reason), or because it has to go through some other regulatory body (like a Health arm of the government or however it works down there). Or MAYBE to show it to developers, but it seems like WWDC would have been the time for that, if it wasn't in production yet anyway.
Comments
So Apple's getting in the game of vaporwear?
Do you even know what "vaporware" is? Considering you're using it to describe an announcement... I'd say you don't have a clue.
Vaporware is defined as being an announced product that does not yet exist and never materializes - never released.
So Apple's getting in the game of vaporwear? It seems odd that they would announce something in the fall but not have it available to ship for the holidays. If it's not ready why announce it now?
Why was the iPhone announced months before the release. Why was the iPad. For the same reason this might be. The FCC. All applications are public record. Apple might be able to get them to hold back that the application was filed but when the whole thing is approved, its going to get out. Apple's choice is to let it and have someone else announce it or go ahead and do it themselves.
Here's an idea. Introduce it at the Sept 9th event. Tell the world the approximate date it will ship. Tell the world that Apple will preview it in stores for a two, or maybe three, week period beginning on the date the new iPhones go on sale in Apple stores.
Cue the stores of stores being robbed for display units.
Yeah ...
There is nothing in the iOS beta 5 (that anyone has found) to support a specific iWatch or wearable.
There was no iOS Beta 6 release, last week, to developers -- though carrier partners got a newer beta.
The next drop is due 9/1 (Labor Day) or 9/2 ...
This would normally be the GM release (with request for app store submissions) for iDevices announced 9/9 with availability ~= 1 week later.
The iOS 8 SDK includes pretty flexible screen size capabilities, already. And, assumably, the system software for the new iPhones will scale existing apps ... so developers aren't faced with much difficulty or a hard deadline to support new screen sizes.
If there are iWatch/iWearable device announcements on 9/9 with imminent delivery -- this gives developers zero warning/ability to support them.
From this I deduce that if Apple announces iWatch/iWearable devices on 9/9, they will have delivery dates in late October at the earliest --
Assuming that a new iOS 8 release supporting the iWatch/iWearable devices is made available to developers on 9/9.
Then, somewhere later, in all this comes new iPads and new AppleTV with iOS 8 enhancements for things like split screen (run 2 apps at once in foreground), drag and drop, stylus support, apps on the AppleTV, AppleTV [smart] Home Server ...
So, there could be lots of iOS 8.x releases ...
Ohh ... I think I need to create a POP chart ...
Remember this is about "managing expectations". A company like Apple would have a prerelease, like suggested, to keep the speculation from getting out of hand. When people's expectations grow wildly beyond reality a company has to cool the speculation or risk disappointing customers. If a product depends upon the holidays for sales it won't be much of a product for Apple. Beyond that you seem to forget that for years all of Apples hardware was released in Janurary. Did you not read about managing expectations. Really your perspective is totally screwed up here.
So let's take a historical look at this from a developers perspective:
When the iPhone was announced, it was announced early (five months) because it needed to be tested in the wild and get FCC approval. When it went on sale, it was expensive and of course everyone wanted to build apps for it. Steve Jobs famously said on stage that you could build web apps for it. Do you think that was their actual intention? No. I don't think so. I think they needed to get the device to market which gave them a year to get things like Xcode and the App Store up and running. Apple is the king of MVP (minimal viable product) and this created a lot of buzz.
So fast forward to 2010. Apple announces the iPad but gives a lot less lead time. But at this point, people were already making apps and they smartly allowed iPhone apps to work on the iPad. This lead time allowed developers to either make an iPad version of their app before actual hardware was available to test on, but also allowed their apps to work on the new device. This made the iPad a great tool "out of the box", but also allowed developers to very quickly ramp up their apps. I made one of the first apps for the iPad, but still had to wait for the iPad to arrive so I could test, fix and upload to the app store.
Fast forward to 2014. Apple is preparing to bring out a new device category. I call it "new" because it's not going to be like any other smart watch (I don't believe). The trouble is that this time they are shrinking the size of the device and the screen. They can't just have apps run in a stretched mode, but need great apps on release. They now have millions of developers anticipating something new. How do you roll out a new device category to the public with great apps?
Simple. You invite as many media and high-profile developers as you can to an announcement. You make the SDK immediately available and ship devices to DEVELOPERS in 2-4 weeks. While they are busy making the latest and greatest stuff, you ramp up production now that the cat is out of the bag and you ship in December. That's why the announcement is so early this year. That's why there is a huge mystery structure outside of the venue. This gives developers about 2-3 months to make great stuff and tell all the millions of their users that something is coming.
Apple simple fans the flame and will have an immediate success if done right.
It’s Apple. There are always demo models.
Not true when they won't ship the product relatively soon. The original iPhone as a new product was announced Jan 2007 with no hands on demo units. First hands on were at the end of June.
The first iPhone reveal has an (alleged) interesting behind the scenes story where at the time of announcement, the iPhone was still very much a work in progress. The demo during the announcement was the only way they found to show all of the features without having the phone crashing, the so called golden-path. They then had a few months to fix it all before putting it into production. I hope this isn't the same for the wearable product (or any for that matter), and what will be announced will be much closer to production that the original iPhone was when it was announced.
If there is a gap between announcement and availability, we can all surely bet the photocopiers are coming out in the meantime.
So is the watch [a new product category]. It’s exactly the same.
That's not fair - the poster clearly meant that the iPhone used hard-to-get-a-hold of parts because it was such a new category (not for Apple, but for the industry); Blackberry even called an emergency meeting where they thought that this thing can't be real IIRC. No way any company could catch up in 6 months to iPhone in 2007. (Still they only did it because it has to clear FCC, not because they had a jump on competition)
For an "iWatch" the competition could see the renders/demo product and in 6 months easily copy the design and turn out a production model with the ubiquitous availability of touch screens, mobile processors etc. It's a different landscape for sure.
I think the only reason Apple would announce it early is because it has to go though FCC, because they promised stuff this year (sort of and I really doubt this would be a reason), or because it has to go through some other regulatory body (like a Health arm of the government or however it works down there). Or MAYBE to show it to developers, but it seems like WWDC would have been the time for that, if it wasn't in production yet anyway.
So let's take a historical look at this from a developers perspective:
When the iPhone was announced, it was announced early (five months) because it needed to be tested in the wild and get FCC approval. When it went on sale, it was expensive and of course everyone wanted to build apps for it. Steve Jobs famously said on stage that you could build web apps for it. Do you think that was their actual intention? No. I don't think so. I think they needed to get the device to market which gave them a year to get things like Xcode and the App Store up and running. Apple is the king of MVP (minimal viable product) and this created a lot of buzz.
So fast forward to 2010. Apple announces the iPad but gives a lot less lead time. But at this point, people were already making apps and they smartly allowed iPhone apps to work on the iPad. This lead time allowed developers to either make an iPad version of their app before actual hardware was available to test on, but also allowed their apps to work on the new device. This made the iPad a great tool "out of the box", but also allowed developers to very quickly ramp up their apps. I made one of the first apps for the iPad, but still had to wait for the iPad to arrive so I could test, fix and upload to the app store.
Fast forward to 2014. Apple is preparing to bring out a new device category. I call it "new" because it's not going to be like any other smart watch (I don't believe). The trouble is that this time they are shrinking the size of the device and the screen. They can't just have apps run in a stretched mode, but need great apps on release. They now have millions of developers anticipating something new. How do you roll out a new device category to the public with great apps?
Simple. You invite as many media and high-profile developers as you can to an announcement. You make the SDK immediately available and ship devices to DEVELOPERS in 2-4 weeks. While they are busy making the latest and greatest stuff, you ramp up production now that the cat is out of the bag and you ship in December. That's why the announcement is so early this year. That's why there is a huge mystery structure outside of the venue. This gives developers about 2-3 months to make great stuff and tell all the millions of their users that something is coming.
Apple simple fans the flame and will have an immediate success if done right.
This makes more sense than anything else I've read, here or otherwise.
My grandson's birthday is 9/5. He wants a new watch. He is trying to decide on popular watches costing between $80 and $150 (the family would all contribute).
I suggested that he might want to wait for the 9/9 announcement as Apple is rumored to be announcing a watch.
After thinking about it for a while, he said: "No, if I got the new iWatch -- it'd only get ripped off at school."
He has an iPhone 5 and about 80% of his friends/classmates have iPhones ...
I guess being first with the latest iDevice has its risks ...
Why do you believe Apple will give developers a play here?
Good. I've said from the very beginning, it does not make sense to ship this during the extremely busy fall/christmas where they have enough new products to sell. Showing it off now and selling in 2015 makes perfect sense. There's pros and cons to every approach, but but it's fucking mind-numbing how some of you can call this "vaporware". This is Apple we're talking about, they're not in that business. The iPhone and iPad were shown off much earlier than launch- they were new product categories, and so is this, no matter how many shitty smartwatches are out today.
my guess is its all about a quality experience. the device really has no 3rd party apps right now. (picture your iphone with no 3rd party apps)
so, end the rumors, release the SDK to allow all of those (rumored) health care entities create their useful software for the device. that will allow for a better and useful item to be on your wrist from day one.
Cue the stores of stores being robbed for display units.
They are likely iOS devices with a kill switch. Other than as a collector's item, I can't see them as having much intrinsic value.
So Apple's getting in the game of vaporwear? It seems odd that they would announce something in the fall but not have it available to ship for the holidays. If it's not ready why announce it now? Unless Apple is that worried about it leaking? Or are they getting in the business of showing off prototypes so Cook can say to Wall Street "see we are innovating"? I'd love to call this rumor bunk, but the source is usually very accurate.
Not the 'wearable' market Apple was aiming for I'm sure :P
The 5 was a GREAT phone but people expected some kind of physics-defying magical miracle. When that didn't happen the stock slumped.
Same thing could happen now -- people will be bummed when they discover the Apple wearable does not offer magical spells or actual teleportation or the option to cure major diseases.
Expectations are so high disappointment is guaranteed in the short term. That's why it makes sense to bundle the 2 announcements, the slightly bummer (the wearable that won't project holograms) and the candy (new phones available now!).
Of course, a year from now, both the new phones and the wearable will be rocking the sales.
This is just about managing short term expectations, in my uninformed ignorant personal opinion of course!
Do you actually believe that Apple can release a device like this without developer support?
I might have agreed under the Steve Jobs era (Apple had been screwed over by Microsoft for their openness -- and Steve never forgot).
IMO, one of the overarching messages of WWDC 2014 was a new openness in Apple's relationship to the world and especially to developers.
It would be a big mistake to limit developer access to Apple's iWatch/iWearable devices -- thus giving developers less incentive to support Apple devices than, say, the Pebble, or Android wearables.
We are entering an era where timing (more than capability or style ) is becoming the most important aspect of a product's success.
Ballmer chasséd around yelling: "Developers, Developers, Developers ... "
Shakespeare said it better:
There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.
IMO, developers are the force that drives the tide ...
Wouldn't the World Wide Developers Conference be the place to release an SDK? I mean that's the event developers attend. These hardware events are usually just for the press.
Yes. That's what I tried to point out.