Analyst predicts 1M Apple Watches sold over launch weekend, 2.3M by June

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  • Reply 81 of 147
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    I'm getting one and I don't even have an iPhone.

    Why?
  • Reply 82 of 147
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by JCC View Post



    Apple Watch will be a massive fail. They will see an initial sales surge as fanboys go buy whatever has an Apple logo on it. But after that, sales will tank as people discover what a piece of crap it is. It's a $350 brick that sits on your wrist. It can't do crap without an iPhone. And, it needs charging everyday. Whoever wants to change a watch everyday??? Duh!?



    Jobs would have never let this watch out of the labs. It's not ready for prime time. Instead, they should have released the new Apple TV with gaming attached and iTunes Store. That's the next big thing!

     

    Now where's TS with the Jonathan "not sure if serious" Ive pic?

  • Reply 83 of 147
    vision33rvision33r Posts: 213member

    Most people I talk to aren't even aware that Apple is making a watch.  The reason many folks buy iphones because they need something to communicate with.  A lot of folks already think an iphone is too expensive unless it is $199 or less.  

     

    If you're asking avg people to splurge $399 on something I don't think a phone would be it.  Perhaps at $149 but not at $399.

     

    The functionality is too limited to justify the pricetag.  Sure there are people with $1k-20k watches but that's for the bling factor and not that many people around that uses it for function.

     

    Prediction: massive markdowns in January.

     

    $299 after 6 months.

  • Reply 84 of 147
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member

    We can safely predict that wearables will take over from smartphones in the long term. Long term tech trends are easier to predict than short term ones. But whether this particular product at this particular time will be successful, I don't think anyone knows. 

     

    The first sign will be when the preorders go live on the 10th, how long it takes to sell out.

  • Reply 85 of 147
    nick29nick29 Posts: 111member
    Apple will sell as many watches as they can supply in the first quarter of availability or more. It's an all-new product, not an upgraded iPhone, many millions of people can't wait to buy it.
  • Reply 86 of 147
    djsherlydjsherly Posts: 1,031member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post





    If I slept through my maths classes, then you learnt yours on another planet.



    The 42mm Edition is $12,000, not $15,000. Also, I didn't decree the watch a failure at 10 million sales but fewer than 10 million.



    Perhaps you were nodding off in your reading classes, for which I forgive you.

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Mr. Me View Post





    So say that 10 million ?Watch sales will make it Apple's first major failure since 1997? I had always assumed that the UK had an excellent education system. You should not have slept through your mathematics classes. The ?Watch is not a MacBook Air. MacBook Airs are sold on very thin margins. Each ?Watch--from the Sport to the Edition--will be sold at crazy margin. The 42 mm yellow gold Edition, for example, contains 69 grams of gold alloy. The price of gold today is slightly more than $38.00/gram. This means that the gold used to construct the 42 mm Edition costs $2622. Gold alloys are priced as though they are pure gold of equal weight. I estimate the internals cost about $50. Through in the intellectual property, bands, charging cables, packaging, and delivery--the cost of production of the 42 mm Edition may be as much as $3,000 each. However, each 42 mm Edition is priced at $15,000 per--a profit of $12,000 each and a markup of 400%. Neither aluminum [used in the ?Watch Sport] nor stainless steel [used in the ?Watch] is traded on the precious metals market. The ?Watch Sport probably has the smallest margin, but it is difficult to see how it can be less than 100% (or about $175 each). The SS ?Watch probably has a margin that rivals the Edition on a percentage basis.



    The bottom line is that the ?Watch will be a license for Apple to mint money. If Apple sells only 10 million ?Watches, then its profits on them will easily be in the neighborhood of $2 billion. We should all fail so badly.

    OT: the Apple glyph is really heavily treated against this particular typeface and looks like misplaced and badly typeset bullet points.

  • Reply 87 of 147
    ascii wrote: »
    We can safely predict that wearables will take over from smartphones in the long term. Long term tech trends are easier to predict than short term ones. But whether this particular product at this particular time will be successful, I don't think anyone knows. 

    The first sign will be when the preorders go live on the 10th, how long it takes to sell out.

    I don't think that's a safe prediction at all.

    When a wearable gives you a virtual iPad in front of you with a virtual tactile keyboard, and a virtual phone which you can hold to your ear, then it can replace the iPhone and iPad. Anything requiring one to focus one's vision on the wrist, like the Apple Watch, is doomed to fail.

    I don't think that day will arrive for a very long time, if ever.
  • Reply 88 of 147
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post





    I don't think that's a safe prediction at all.



    When a wearable gives you a virtual iPad in front of you with a virtual tactile keyboard, and a virtual phone which you can hold to your ear, then it can replace the iPhone and iPad. Anything requiring one to focus one's vision on the wrist, like the Apple Watch, is doomed to fail.



    I don't think that day will arrive for a very long time, if ever.

    I just think that computers get smaller and smaller as time goes by, so at a certain point it will make more sense to wear them than carry them around. 

     

    What kind of interface it will have at that point I don't know. It could have a Bluetooth connected contact lens that gives the augmented reality you describe, I wasn't saying it was inevitable that our wearables will be wristwatches. 

     

    But the wristwatch is a form factor that people have proven willing to wear in the past (in the form of clockwork watches) so at the very least it's the lowest risk wearable form factor Apple could have chosen.

  • Reply 89 of 147
    ascii wrote: »
    I don't think that's a safe prediction at all.


    When a wearable gives you a virtual iPad in front of you with a virtual tactile keyboard, and a virtual phone which you can hold to your ear, then it can replace the iPhone and iPad. Anything requiring one to focus one's vision on the wrist, like the Apple Watch, is doomed to fail.


    I don't think that day will arrive for a very long time, if ever.
    I just think that computers get smaller and smaller as time goes by, so at a certain point it will make more sense to wear them than carry them around. 

    What kind of interface it will have at that point I don't know. It could have a Bluetooth connected contact lens that gives the augmented reality you describe, I wasn't saying it was inevitable that our wearables will be wristwatches. 

    But the wristwatch is a form factor that people have proven willing to wear in the past (in the form of clockwork watches) so at the very least it's the lowest risk wearable form factor Apple could have chosen.

    Sure, I agree that a watch was a much better idea than glasses. I just think that the watch isn't going to see a great renaissance as a result of Apple's effort, even if it is much better than all other smartwatches.

    And I try to think of the mundane practicalities. How to type? Voice is often touted as the replacement, but it won't be. When we can literally turn our thoughts into words on a screen just by thinking them, then a new paradigm can be invented. Until such time, we will always have to rely on a keyboard. Leaning over to the wrist constantly is not going to happen.

    I think of Jobs's introduction of the iPad. What he really got across was that the iPad was the optimum way to do a series of common things, like email. web browsing, reading etc. This is mainly why I feel the Apple Watch is not the next big thing. It's never going to be the optimum way to do most things. The iPad had a big edge over laptops. I don't think the watch has an edge over the iPhone.
  • Reply 90 of 147
    I%u2019m with you Ben Frost...less then 10 million and Cook needs to go. I hope Bill Gates comes out of retirement and takes over Apple.
  • Reply 91 of 147
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post



    I predict that Apple will sell fewer than 10 million in the first year, sadly making it their first major failure since Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997.



    It will be the first failure under Tim Cook's watch.

    I’m with you Ben...less then 10 million and Cook needs to go. I hope Bill Gates comes out of retirement and takes over Apple.

  • Reply 92 of 147
    6-10m in May/June period. Mostly 38mm sports.

    http://q10a1.blogspot.com/2015/03/apple-watch-sales-expectations.html
  • Reply 93 of 147
    jccjcc Posts: 327member

    All of you are missing the point. The point isn't whether or not a watch is a good form factor. The real point is that the Apple watch lacks any killer, must have functionality.  That, will arrive when they incorporate medical/bio feedback functionality into the watch. Things like monitoring blood pressure, heart rate, and other health/fitness tracking will be a game changer and the killer functionality.  That would have been the point Jobs would have released the watch.  Jobs knows that any new device category has to have a killer functionality.  He would have seen that this current incarnation is not ready for primetime and would have kept it in the labs.  He did the same with the iPad and iPhone. He kept tinkering in the labs for years before releasing it. Why? because he was waiting for the technology to catch up with what he had in mind.  Cook is desperate as Apple hasn't released anything new under his watch.  He's going to push the watch even though it''s not ready.  They had to pull all of the bio metric functionality out of the watch because the technology isn't ready.  He's going to regret it as I predicted before that they will get an initial surge in sales due to fanboys followed by a slow death as people discover that it's a $350+ brick. The reviews will also not be so kind which will prompt further declining sales.

     

    Any longtime follower of Apple will know that things have changed drastically under Cook. They should have put more efforts in gamefying the Apple TV. Open the platform to developers with the iTunes store and see what amazing things will be created.  THAT would have been a better move for Cook. The game console market is a multi-billion dollar market that Apple can conquer easily.  Why aren't they all over it??? This is just stupid.

  • Reply 94 of 147
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    jcc wrote: »
    All of you are missing the point. The point

    < . . . blah no, I haven't used the Watch blah . . .>

    They should have put more efforts in gamefying the Apple TV. Open the platform to developers with the iTunes store and see what amazing things will be created.  THAT would have been a better move for Cook. The game console market is a multi-billion dollar market that Apple can conquer easily.  Why aren't they all over it??? This is just stupid.

    Why aren't they all over it? Maybe because gaming can be an addictive waste of time and doesn't make our lives better.

    The Watch is about communication and connection. See how people use it, then make your predictions.
  • Reply 95 of 147
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post



    I predict Apple will sell more ?Watches in their first partial quarter then all the other "smart" watches sold to date by Samsung, MS, and the usual mix of brand X androids COMBINED.



    I dug that prediction out of the same place Munster finds all his juicy gems...

    He actually allowed you to dig it out of there?

  • Reply 96 of 147
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,474member
    Quote:


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by JCC View Post



    All of you are missing the point. The point



    < . . . blah no, I haven't used the Watch blah . . .>



    They should have put more efforts in gamefying the Apple TV. Open the platform to developers with the iTunes store and see what amazing things will be created.  THAT would have been a better move for Cook. The game console market is a multi-billion dollar market that Apple can conquer easily.  Why aren't they all over it??? This is just stupid.




    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post





    Why aren't they all over it? Maybe because gaming can be an addictive waste of time and doesn't make our lives better.



    The Watch is about communication and connection. See how people use it, then make your predictions.

     

    Good point...all someone has to do is go back and watch the iPad launch.  Read a book, newspaper, use Pages, Keynote, and Numbers.  They got it out on the market and let people have at it.  Same for the original iPhone...there was no 3rd party software, but I bet they knew where they were going with it at launch.  Too many examples like that.  TouchID for one.

  • Reply 97 of 147
    jccjcc Posts: 327member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post





    Why aren't they all over it? Maybe because gaming can be an addictive waste of time and doesn't make our lives better.



    The Watch is about communication and connection. See how people use it, then make your predictions.



    Actually, I'm a developer so i know something about the watch. It's almost completely useless unless it's tethered to an iPhone. So, let's break it down since you're a slow learner, ok?

     

    1. It will cost $350++

    2. It doesn't really do much without the iPhone being nearby besides tell time as it's just a mini dumb terminal. All apps etc are run off the iPhone and then transmitted to the watch. That means only iPhone users are its initial customer base.

    3. There are no bio sensors on this watch beside being able to pickup your heartbeat. It can't even do that reliably.

    4. Few killer apps at launch

    5. It needs to be charged everyday. I can't even stand charging my iPhone every OTHER day, let alone a watch which is suppose to be set and forget.  Any long time watch wearer would tell you that they wouldn't want to wear something that needs that much maintenance.

    6. Did I mention that you need to pay $350+++ for all this?

     

    Cook knows this already. He knows that it's a dud. Why do you think management has spent so much time selling the watch before it's even out? In Apple's history since Jobs 2nd arrival, they have NEVER had a marketing blitz as large as the Apple Watch. Every member of the senior management team has given tons of interviews about it. There are tons of magazine spreads.  Think about that for a moment. Why do you think that is??? Great products practically sells itself. It requires very little convincing for you to stand in long lines and shell out your very hard earned money.  So why would Apple all of a sudden change their strategy when launching a new product? What's changed? I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

  • Reply 98 of 147
    jccjcc Posts: 327member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by icoco3 View Post

     

     

    Good point...all someone has to do is go back and watch the iPad launch.  Read a book, newspaper, use Pages, Keynote, and Numbers.  They got it out on the market and let people have at it.  Same for the original iPhone...there was no 3rd party software, but I bet they knew where they were going with it at launch.  Too many examples like that.  TouchID for one.




    That's actually a very BAD point. It shows a lack of deep thinking as you're comparing apples and oranges. Don't be so superficial.

     

    The killer functionality of the iPad as a category is its screen size.  That's easy for consumers to grasp.

     

    What's the killer functionality of the watch? You probably don't know this but I'll tell you, it's biometrics. So unless they have that worked out, this will be a huge dud.  The future for wearables like a watch is to be your very own doctor monitoring your vitals 24/7. There are some really cool things being developed in this area and with Obama Care mandating value based care, there's a lot of money being spent towards this areas now.

  • Reply 99 of 147
    mr. memr. me Posts: 3,221member
    jcc wrote: »
    All of you are missing the point. The point isn't whether or not a watch is a good form factor. The real point is that the Apple watch lacks any killer, must have functionality.  That, will arrive when they incorporate medical/bio feedback functionality into the watch. Things like monitoring blood pressure, heart rate, and other health/fitness tracking will be a game changer and the killer functionality.  That would have been the point Jobs would have released the watch.  Jobs knows that any new device category has to have a killer functionality.  He would have seen that this current incarnation is not ready for primetime and would have kept it in the labs.  He did the same with the iPad and iPhone. He kept tinkering in the labs for years before releasing it. Why? because he was waiting for the technology to catch up with what he had in mind.  Cook is desperate as Apple hasn't released anything new under his watch.  He's going to push the watch even though it''s not ready.  They had to pull all of the bio metric functionality out of the watch because the technology isn't ready.  He's going to regret it as I predicted before that they will get an initial surge in sales due to fanboys followed by a slow death as people discover that it's a $350+ brick. The reviews will also not be so kind which will prompt further declining sales.

    Any longtime follower of Apple will know that things have changed drastically under Cook. They should have put more efforts in gamefying the Apple TV. Open the platform to developers with the iTunes store and see what amazing things will be created.  THAT would have been a better move for Cook. The game console market is a multi-billion dollar market that Apple can conquer easily.  Why aren't they all over it??? This is just stupid.
    There is a critical flaw in your analysis. During the final months of his life, Steve Jobs worked closely with Apple personnel to map out product plans for the five (5) years to follow. This means that the ?Watch was conceived and largely developed on Jobs's watch. Pardon the pun.
  • Reply 100 of 147
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 3,085member

    To me, the Apple Watch killer feature is having a connection to my phone without my phone in my pocket *when I am at home*. 

     

    Apple Watch does have BTLE and wifi. It is clear the Watch needs to connect to your iPhone to function, and pretty sure the BTLE connection will be its connection of choice. But...why not via wifi? Meaning if your watch can get a wifi connection...and your iPhone can get a wifi connection...

     

    Or better yet - the original nook came with built-in cell connections to buy and download books. No "subscription" or carrier needed (it was supplied by AT&T, IIRC). When Apple Watch gets comx via cell (presumably when the battery will support it)...whammo. 

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