Analyst predicts 1M Apple Watches sold over launch weekend, 2.3M by June

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  • Reply 121 of 147
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:



    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post





    For a good half of the year, my wrist is covered up by a sleeve due to the climate. When I regularly wore a watch, I had to keep pulling back the sleeve to see the time. This would get old quickly with the Apple Watch. Even if Apple eventually include the sensors that count, like blood pressure, I would prefer to see the data on my iPhone and iPad, not my wrist. I'd prefer a simple band with no display or a traditional watch that tells the time with sensors tucked underneath. I don't want to be constantly looking at my watch for information. It's just not an optimum medium for it compared to the current iDevices or a Mac for that matter.



    Another nail in its coffin, I'm afraid.

    Your entire first paragraph is an expression of your preferences, and, as such, I must accept this as fact.

     

    Your final sentence is naive.

  • Reply 122 of 147
    solipsismy wrote: »
    thompr wrote: »
    Could easily reach 15M Apple Watches by end of Dec.  This will make a great Xmas gift, and people will buy a bunch even while the rumor mills are churning out "details" about the Apple Watch 2 that is only a few months away.

    I'm highly doubtful of that because 1) it is technically an accessory device even though designed to also use independently, and 2) it would best the iPad by a large margin to hit 15 MM units in 8 months when it took the iPad a full year to do 14.4 MM.

    Not at all.

    The launch of the iPad was five years ago! There are far more Apple users now, so the bar for success is much higher. 15 million is a very modest target for success. The equivalent rate for the 15 million iPads sold in its first year would be more like about 25 million Apple Watches today.

    However, I'm prepared to lower the bar due to its accessory status. Nonetheless, it does mean that if they fail to hit 10 million, it truly is a failure.
  • Reply 123 of 147
    thompr wrote: »
    [CONTENTEMBED=/t/185501/analyst-predicts-1m-apple-watches-sold-over-launch-weekend-2-3m-by-june/80#post_2702247 layout=inline]Quote:[/CONTENTEMBED]
    For a good half of the year, my wrist is covered up by a sleeve due to the climate. When I regularly wore a watch, I had to keep pulling back the sleeve to see the time. This would get old quickly with the Apple Watch. Even if Apple eventually include the sensors that count, like blood pressure, I would prefer to see the data on my iPhone and iPad, not my wrist. I'd prefer a simple band with no display or a traditional watch that tells the time with sensors tucked underneath. I don't want to be constantly looking at my watch for information. It's just not an optimum medium for it compared to the current iDevices or a Mac for that matter.


    Another nail in its coffin, I'm afraid.
    Your entire first paragraph is an expression of your preferences, and, as such, I must accept this as fact.

    Your final sentence is naive.

    Fair enough.

    Maybe, there's truth in my naivety. ;)
  • Reply 124 of 147
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,339member
    solipsismy wrote: »
    I'm highly doubtful of that because 1) it is technically an accessory device even though designed to also use independently, and 2) it would best the iPad by a large margin to hit 15 MM units in 8 months when it took the iPad a full year to do 14.4 MM.
    The iPad hit around 15M sales in much less than 12 months. It was released for sale the first week of April/2010 and Steve Jobs was announcing the first year sales of 14.8M just 9 months later, mid Jan/2011. The Apple Watch will be going on sale roughly the same week in 2015 as the iPad did in 2010.

    To be fair it would be normal to assume that when Apple announced first year sales they would have meant a full 12 months and not the calendar year, but they didn't.

    http://allthingsd.com/20110120/with-ipad-sales-steve-schools-the-street-again/
  • Reply 125 of 147
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    I'm highly doubtful of that because 1) it is technically an accessory device even though designed to also use independently, and 2) it would best the iPad by a large margin to hit 15 MM units in 8 months when it took the iPad a full year to do 14.4 MM.

    I think that the number of dedicated Apple fans has grown so much in the last 5 years that 15MM could be reached simply because that many people will buy any new sub-$500 product line that Apple comes up with... then some of those will buy a few more for their wives/kids as Xmas nears.  So I'm undaunted by the previously jaw-dropping iPad numbers and the accessory nature of the watch.

     

    Apple bashers tend to poke fun at a set of "iSheep" or "fanbois", etc, that will buy anything that Apple puts out.  What these bashers don't realize, in my opinion, is that that is not only a real set of people (I'm one of them) but it is so large now that it can supply instant critical mass.  All that the product needs to do at that point is actually turn out to be *useful*, and then the word would get out, and success would follow.  I believe that Apple Watch will prove so.  Apparently, Benjamin Frost (naively) does not.

  • Reply 126 of 147
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    The iPad hit around 15M sales in much less than 12 months. It was released for sale the first week of April/2010 and Steve Jobs was announcing the first year sales of 14.8M just 9 months later, mid Jan/2011. The Apple Watch will be going on sale roughly the same week in 2015 as the iPad did in 2010.



    To be fair it would be normal to assume that when Apple announced first year sales they would have meant a full 12 months and not the calendar year, but they didn't.



    http://allthingsd.com/20110120/with-ipad-sales-steve-schools-the-street-again/

     

    Well, Soli was responding to my post, and I was claiming by end of December, not a full year for the watch either.

  • Reply 127 of 147
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    gatorguy wrote: »
    The iPad hit around 15M sales in much less than 12 months. It was released for sale the first week of April/2010 and Steve Jobs was announcing the first year sales of 14.8M just 9 months later, mid Jan/2011. The Apple Watch will be going on sale roughly the same week in 2015 as the iPad did in 2010.

    To be fair it would be normal to assume that when Apple announced first year sales they would have meant a full 12 months and not the calendar year, but they didn't.

    http://allthingsd.com/20110120/with-ipad-sales-steve-schools-the-street-again/

    I'll have to check again but I thought it was 14.4 MM in the first four quarters it was on sale.
  • Reply 128 of 147
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by JCC View Post

     



    Actually, I'm a developer so i know something about the watch. It's almost completely useless unless it's tethered to an iPhone. So, let's break it down since you're a slow learner, ok?

     

    1. It will cost $350++

    2. It doesn't really do much without the iPhone being nearby besides tell time as it's just a mini dumb terminal. All apps etc are run off the iPhone and then transmitted to the watch. That means only iPhone users are its initial customer base.

    3. There are no bio sensors on this watch beside being able to pickup your heartbeat. It can't even do that reliably.

    4. Few killer apps at launch

    5. It needs to be charged everyday. I can't even stand charging my iPhone every OTHER day, let alone a watch which is suppose to be set and forget.  Any long time watch wearer would tell you that they wouldn't want to wear something that needs that much maintenance.

    6. Did I mention that you need to pay $350+++ for all this?


    Responses...

     

    (1) Thanks for the big reveal.

    (2) The watch can perform quite a few functions without the phone, but it's true that iPhone users are its customer base.

    (3) How do you know what the reliability of the heartrate sensor is?

    (4) Given the fact that there will be many apps available at launch that haven't even been publicized yet, how can you know?

    (5a) I charge my iPhone every night on the bedside table.  No big deal.  I'll set the watch on its charger right next to the iPhone at night.

    (5b) If this were simply a watch, I'd care what watch users think about the maintenance.  But it's not, and I don't.

    (6) Yes.  Thanks so much for repeating what was already known the first time.

  • Reply 129 of 147
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,339member
    thompr wrote: »
    Well, Soli was responding to my post, and I was claiming by end of December, not a full year for the watch either.
    I know. He was responding to me as well. He just didn't realize that the 14.8M iPad sales were over an 8 month period too.
  • Reply 130 of 147
    jccjcc Posts: 327member
     
    Originally Posted by thompr View Post

     

    Responses...

     

    (1) Thanks for the big reveal.

    (2) The watch can perform quite a few functions without the phone, but it's true that iPhone users are its customer base.

    (3) How do you know what the reliability of the heartrate sensor is?

    (4) Given the fact that there will be many apps available at launch that haven't even been publicized yet, how can you know?

    (5a) I charge my iPhone every night on the bedside table.  No big deal.  I'll set the watch on its charger right next to the iPhone at night.

    (5b) If this were simply a watch, I'd care what watch users think about the maintenance.  But it's not, and I don't.

    (6) Yes.  Thanks so much for repeating what was already known the first time.


     

    (1) It's not about the reveal but about the high price to pay for a useless toy.

    (2) Useless ones you mean? Would you pay $350++ for just those useless functions?

    (3) http://appleinsider.com/articles/15/02/16/apple-scrapped-advanced-apple-watch-health-monitoring-features-due-to-reliability-issues

    http://www.cnet.com/news/how-accurate-are-wristband-heart-rate-monitors/

    (5b) Why do you think Apple has specifically targeted fashion and watch specialist in selling the watch? People who wear watches are the first to adopt a new watch. So yea, Apple cares very much about watch users.

  • Reply 131 of 147
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,339member
    sog35 wrote: »
    Joined Nov 2008. 140 posts.

    If you are so sure the Watch will fail take my challange that several other Watch critics took:

    If Apple sells 15 million or more Watches in the first 12 months you will ban yourself for 12 months.  If not I'll ban myself.

    Take the challange or your words are empty.
    I thought your challenge was 15M or something like that this year, not the next 12 months. Did it change?

    EDIT: Yup you were definitely saying this year as little as two days ago. You didn't mean to change that did you? FWIW and considering all the PR Apple is putting into this I'll be mildly surprised myself if they don't. Just wanted to clarify the wager you were making.
    http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/185471/apple-watch-for-retail-sale-by-reservation-only-no-band-swapping-during-try-ons-report#post_2700538
  • Reply 132 of 147
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    gatorguy wrote: »
    I know. He was responding to me as well. He just didn't realize that the 14.8M iPad sales were over an 8 month period too.

    You're right. I'm not sure where I got 14.4 MM for the first 4 quarters. The first 4 quarters appear to be 19.5 MM.
    3fQ2010 = 3.27 MM
    4fQ2010 = 4.19 MM
    1fQ2011 = 7.33 MM
    2fQ2010 = 4.69 MM


    edit: iPhone sales for their first 4 quarters are so weak (5.48 MM) I'm surprised anyone even remembers it ever existed¡
    3fQ2007 = 0.27 MM
    4fQ2007 = 1.19 MM
    1fQ2008= 2.32 MM
    2fQ2008 = 1.7 MM
  • Reply 133 of 147
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JCC View Post

     

     

    (1) It's not about the reveal but about the high price to pay for a useless toy.

    (2) Useless ones you mean? Would you pay $350++ for just those useless functions?

    (3) http://appleinsider.com/articles/15/02/16/apple-scrapped-advanced-apple-watch-health-monitoring-features-due-to-reliability-issues

    http://www.cnet.com/news/how-accurate-are-wristband-heart-rate-monitors/

    (5b) Why do you think Apple has specifically targeted fashion and watch specialist in selling the watch? People who wear watches are the first to adopt a new watch. So yea, Apple cares very much about watch users.


     

    (1)  You prefaced your list saying that you were a developer, so you "know" some things, and condescendingly suggesting that we could learn something.  And yet the first thing on your list is something anybody already knew and will deal with based on their own economics and preferences.  

    FAIL.

     

    (2)  No, not useless ones.  Here is a partial list, known already.  More to be released as time goes on...

    *Use Apple Pay

    *Get On Airplanes or into Movies

    *Listen to music, audiobooks, podcasts

    *Open hotel room, or home & garage doors

    *Track your fitness/activity/heart rate

    *Control your AppleTV

     

    None of the above actions require the phone to be present while performing, but you claimed that the AppleWatch was basically just a "dumb terminal" that could only tell time.

    FAIL.

     

    (3)  Your original list claims that the AppleWatch cannot reliably measure heart rate.  Neither of the links you just gave indicate that is true.

    FAIL.

     

    (5b)  Many, many, people that haven't worn a watch before are going to get this new computing platform, because that's what it will prove to be.  You apparently have no understanding or answer for this, because you knew nothing about the things I just listed under (2) and ignored my first response to (4).  Nor could you wrap your mind around my response to (5a) which a lot of people share.  

    FAIL.

     


    (6) You didn't answer (6).

    FAIL.

     


     


    You just plain FAIL!

  • Reply 134 of 147
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    You're right. I'm not sure where I got 14.4 MM for the first 4 quarters. The first 4 quarters appear to be 19.5 MM.

    edit: iPhone sales for their first 4 quarters are so weak (5.48 MM) I'm surprised anyone even remembers it ever existed¡

    The first model of iPhone was not subsidized.  The price was too high to start then lowered a bit (which helped some).  Subsidies came about when the 3G launched.  Better performance + lower prices led to a big ramp from then on.

  • Reply 135 of 147
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Joined Nov 2008. 140 posts.

     

    If you are so sure the Watch will fail take my challange that several other Watch critics took:

     

    If Apple sells 15 million or more Watches in the first 12 months you will ban yourself for 12 months.  If not I'll ban myself.

     

    Take the challange or your words are empty.


    Sog,

     

    People like that will simply conjure up a new alias and pretend to be someone else, even if we can all tell the language is completely the same.  In other words, it's a wasted wager.

  • Reply 136 of 147
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,474member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by JCC View Post

     



    That's actually a very BAD point. It shows a lack of deep thinking as you're comparing apples and oranges. Don't be so superficial.

     

    The killer functionality of the iPad as a category is its screen size.  That's easy for consumers to grasp.

     

    What's the killer functionality of the watch? You probably don't know this but I'll tell you, it's biometrics. So unless they have that worked out, this will be a huge dud.  The future for wearables like a watch is to be your very own doctor monitoring your vitals 24/7. There are some really cool things being developed in this area and with Obama Care mandating value based care, there's a lot of money being spent towards this areas now.


     

    And in your own answer you missed it...

     

    I am sure biometrics are on their radar with this, it does not mean the functionality needs to be 100% of the vision at launch.  TouchID was introduced and allowed you to unlock your phone and get something from the app store.  Kind of basic.  Over that year, they got it down then it became a major component of ApplePay.

     

    Your earlier remarks seemed to say that because the "killer app" isn't there day one, it is a dud.  I say the other posters point was correct, let it play out ans see where it goes.  Apple has a vision beyond this launch that we don't know about yet or the full scale of.

     

    My comment was not superficial and a comment like that can be left out in order to make your point.  Unless you really need to use it to put me down so your comment can seem bigger.

  • Reply 137 of 147
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,474member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by JCC View Post

     

     

    (1) It's not about the reveal but about the high price to pay for a useless toy.

    (2) Useless ones you mean? Would you pay $350++ for just those useless functions?

    ...

     

    Rolex??

  • Reply 138 of 147
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post





    Sure, I agree that a watch was a much better idea than glasses. I just think that the watch isn't going to see a great renaissance as a result of Apple's effort, even if it is much better than all other smartwatches.



    And I try to think of the mundane practicalities. How to type? Voice is often touted as the replacement, but it won't be. When we can literally turn our thoughts into words on a screen just by thinking them, then a new paradigm can be invented. Until such time, we will always have to rely on a keyboard. Leaning over to the wrist constantly is not going to happen.



    I think of Jobs's introduction of the iPad. What he really got across was that the iPad was the optimum way to do a series of common things, like email. web browsing, reading etc. This is mainly why I feel the Apple Watch is not the next big thing. It's never going to be the optimum way to do most things. The iPad had a big edge over laptops. I don't think the watch has an edge over the iPhone.

     

    It does seem to lack a killer app, unless notifications is it.

     

    But new form factors sometimes make new apps possible that couldn't be done on previous form factors. So even if existing form factors are more optimal for all known apps, we still have to withold judgment until we see if any new ones arise.

  • Reply 139 of 147
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ascii View Post

     

     

    It does seem to lack a killer app, unless notifications is it.

     

    But new form factors sometimes make new apps possible that couldn't be done on previous form factors. So even if existing form factors are more optimal for all known apps, we still have to withold judgment until we see if any new ones arise.


    * I think I will enjoy leaving my briefcase, wallet, and iPhone in the car when I pop into circle K for a coffee and/or breakfast snack in the morning.  I'll just use ApplePay with the watch.

     

    * I think I will enjoy leaving the iPhone in the locker with all my other stuff when I am lifting weights and doing cardio at LA Fitness.

     

    * I think that I will enjoy using my watch as my boarding pass while getting on an AA flight or as my ticket while walking into a movie theater.

     

    * I think I will enjoy using my watch to control my AppleTV and not have to hunt for the remote control.

     

    * I think I will enjoy using my watch to open up hotel room doors, since I'm usually toting a suitcase and a briefcase.

     

    That's five applications right there.  Are these killer apps?  No.  Are these first world problems?  Sure.  But I have the funds, and I think the conveniences are worth it, especially when viewing them all together instead of looking for one "killer" app.  Other people may not feel the same way, and that's fine.  The problem I see here is that folks that don't see these things as valuable enough are assuming that everybody else feels the same as they do.  Apple has a tremendously large fan base now.  They only need a small fraction of people to be like me.  They are going to get (at least) that fraction.  Just watch.

  • Reply 140 of 147
    friedmudfriedmud Posts: 165member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by vagabondx View Post





    My wife and I tried on both versions at the developer preview. The band on the 42mm was too slack on her and the 38mm band did not even fit my slightly larger wrist on the loosest notch. Best thing to do is preorder both and return the one that doesn't fit you, otherwise try it on in-store first.



    The band size is not directly dictated by the watch size:

     

    https://store.apple.com/Catalog/regional/amr/pdf/static/pdf/content/Watch_Sizing_Guide.pdf

     

    Several of the bands have multiple sizes.... even for the _same_ size watch (38mm or 42mm).

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