Analyst predicts 1M Apple Watches sold over launch weekend, 2.3M by June

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited April 2015
With Apple Watch on the horizon, industry analysts are placing their bets on how many units Apple can move on its first weekend of availability, with one prediction pegging the number at one million.




Based on a potential attach rate of less than one percent of total iPhone users, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in a research note published Tuesday he believes Apple could see total Apple Watch sales hit one million units over the weekend starting April 24.

The huge number includes both preorders and launch sales, though it is not yet clear if Apple will have stock on hand to sell to walk-in customers.

Munster's logic banks on loyal customers who are anxious to get their orders in on April 10. Further, the analyst expects Apple to sell some 300,000 units in the first 24 hours of availability, equating to an 8 percent attach rate on iPhone 6 and 6 Plus preorders.

Compared to Apple's recent iPhone 6 and 6 Plus device debut, Apple Watch sales may see a boost following initial release as the company sends out product to partner resellers. As Apple Watch supply is thought to be limited, Munster doesn't expect to see these channel fill benefits at launch.

Looking forward, Munster estimates Apple will sell 8 million Apple Watches over the course of 2015, which would tack on roughly $4.4 billion to company revenue. As production ramps up, Apple Watch sales could reach 40 to 50 million units by 2017, accounting for 10 percent of Apple's projected revenue that year. Assuming that volume, 8 to 10 percent of iPhone owners will have purchased Apple Watch.

Preorders for Apple Watch are set to go live on April 10, the same day Apple Stores and pop-up shops around the world will preview the device to interested customers. Sales start two weeks later on April 24.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 147
    But what does he say about the Apple television set
  • Reply 2 of 147
    sacto joesacto joe Posts: 734member
    Apple will sell every watch they make. Nobody knows what that number is, so this "analysis" is just pure speculation.
  • Reply 3 of 147
    But what does he say about the Apple television set

    He's expecting one any day now.
  • Reply 4 of 147
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    sacto joe wrote: »
    Apple will sell every watch they make. Nobody knows what that number is, so this "analysis" is just pure speculation.

    That's a good point. Who knows how many Apple can reasonably manufacturer across all 38(?) models.
  • Reply 5 of 147
    I predict that Apple will sell fewer than 10 million in the first year, sadly making it their first major failure since Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997.

    It will be the first failure under Tim Cook's watch.
  • Reply 6 of 147
    I predict Apple will sell more ?Watches in their first partial quarter then all the other "smart" watches sold to date by Samsung, MS, and the usual mix of brand X androids COMBINED.

    I dug that prediction out of the same place Munster finds all his juicy gems...
  • Reply 7 of 147
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    I predict Apple will sell more ?Watches in their first partial quarter then all the other "smart" watches sold to date by Samsung, MS, and the usual mix of brand X androids COMBINED.

    I dug that prediction out of the same place Munster finds all his juicy gems...

    I think that's a solid prediction.
  • Reply 8 of 147
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,098member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Lord Amhran View Post



    But what does he say about the Apple television set



    It's on backorder.

  • Reply 9 of 147
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,068member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post



    I predict that Apple will sell fewer than 10 million in the first year, sadly making it their first major failure since Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997.



    It will be the first failure under Tim Cook's watch.



    Care to explain how you arrived at that figure? Why would 10 million be a failure when it would exceed all other wearable devices combined? Never mind, we all know where you got it anyway.

  • Reply 10 of 147
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    lkrupp wrote: »

    Care to explain how you arrived at that figure? Why would 10 million be a failure when it would exceed all other wearable devices combined? Never mind, we all know where you got it anyway.

    And be 50% higher than the iPhone in its first year on the market. In fact, that 10 MM failure would only be beaten by the iPad, which is the fastest selling CE ever created, and since this is currently an accessory to the iPhone expecting greater than iPad numbers to deem is meh is just a stupid statement.

    PS: PDFTT.
  • Reply 11 of 147
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lord Amhran View Post



    But what does he say about the Apple television set

     

     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

     



    It's on backorder.




    He's...watching...eagerly.

     

    http://sadtrombone.com/?autoplay=true

  • Reply 11 of 147
    tcaseytcasey Posts: 199member

    i think apple will sell less then a billion watches and so that's a failure...i have no data to support this claim...hehe

  • Reply 13 of 147
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member

    I'll probably order one on the first day even though I originally said I wasn't interested. A few hundred dollars is not so much to try it out. I know all my friends are going to think I'm a brainwashed sheep since I already said I wasn't going to buy one. Oh well maybe they are right.

  • Reply 14 of 147
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    mstone wrote: »
    I'll probably order one on the first day even though I originally said I wasn't interested. A few hundred dollars is not so much to try it out. I know all my friends are going to think I'm a brainwashed sheep since I already said I wasn't going to buy one. Oh well maybe they are right.

    I've definitely tilted away from the Fitbit Charge HR to the black 42mm ?Watch Sport, but I'm not sure I'm going to do a pre-order purchase.
  • Reply 15 of 147
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    I've definitely tilted away from the Fitbit Charge HR to the black 42mm ?Watch Sport, but I'm not sure I'm going to do a pre-order purchase.

    How is the 42mm measured? Diagonally? I'm thinking to mock up one with a 3D printer.

  • Reply 16 of 147
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    mstone wrote: »
    How is the 42mm measured? Diagonally? I'm thinking to mock up one with a 3D printer.

    That's the height of the watch casing. I'm not sure if we've seen the actual display size at this point.
  • Reply 17 of 147
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    That's the height of the watch casing. I'm not sure if we've seen the actual display size at this point.

    That's all you need. The rest can be inferred from the many photos available.

  • Reply 18 of 147
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    That's the height of the watch casing. I'm not sure if we've seen the actual display size at this point.



    If Wikipedia is to be believed, the resolution on the 42mm is 312x390, at 302 PPI. Doing the math puts the screen at 1.65" diagonally.

    The 38mm is 272x340, at 290PPI. That figures out to a 1.5" display.

     

    The numbers are probably good, since devs would need to know the resolutions for apps.

  • Reply 19 of 147
    dunksdunks Posts: 1,240member

    This little tidbit has conviced me to get the 42mm version:

     

    "Apple Watch battery performance claims are based on test results from the 38-mm Apple Watch. A 42-mm Apple Watch typically experiences longer battery life."

     

    http://www.apple.com/au/watch/battery.html

  • Reply 20 of 147
    zxlgozxlgo Posts: 3member
    Is It really a solid prediction? I don't think it would be beaten by the iPad, Here are great Apple Watch: http://www.tulsiny.com/apple-watch-apps/ You will find that they are really greater than iPad.
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