Initial Apple Watch stock dries up in minutes, shipping times quickly jump to 4-6 weeks

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  • Reply 301 of 362
    nospamman wrote: »
    Black, large sport watch ordered and fully paid for by 12.10am California time and it was 4-6 weeks when I clicked on it at 12:02 or so.  Total farce.  Apple wasn't ready for this and barely has any supplies.  The masters of supply chain basically had about 1000 units and knew the rest would be built to order.  Makes me mad they talked out of their arse about a 4/24 delivery.  Now they'll just boast about "how high demand was" and how surprised(!) they were that everything sold out. Another Apple con job.  I miss the days when the company was struggling and had some integrity in equal measure to humility.  [sigh]

    Mmm ... don't know if it will happen -- but how will you feel if your delivery time improves as they get their act together?

    It's happened to me more than once -- I went to change a backordered item and it had already shipped!

    P.S. They don't charge your cc until the product is ready to ship -- so, not really fully paid for!
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  • Reply 302 of 362
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post





    Mmm ... don't know if it will happen -- but how will you feel if your delivery time improves as they get their act together?



    It's happened to me more than once -- I went to change a backordered item and it had already shipped!



    P.S. They don't charge your cc until the product is ready to ship -- so, not really fully paid for!



    But Dick, it's the game that Apple plays with everything.  Under-promise, over-deliver.  Yes, it's effective and I see the logic, but this time they totally failed at it.  They OVER PROMISED (probably knowingly to drive sales) and now they will under deliver.  Or another way of saying it is that they "might" deliver 2-3 weeks later than the 4/24 promise date, but they've primed us for 4-6 weeks so they still look the champ.  I think they should have just called off the 4/10 date and pushed that till they had a legitimate supply that couldn't sell out in less than 10 minutes.

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  • Reply 303 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by NoSpamMan View Post

     



    But Dick, it's the game that Apple plays with everything.  Under-promise, over-deliver.  Yes, it's effective and I see the logic, but this time they totally failed at it.  They OVER PROMISED (probably knowingly to drive sales) and now they will under deliver.  Or another way of saying it is that they "might" deliver 2-3 weeks later than the 4/24 promise date, but they've primed us for 4-6 weeks so they still look the champ.  I think they should have just called off the 4/10 date and pushed that till they had a legitimate supply that couldn't sell out in less than 10 minutes.




    They did not "over promise" anything. In fact the clear message was the supply is going to be limited initially, so don't bother to line up on the sidewalks. Not being able to put a product in the hands of a person who wants it does not drive sales, it reduces sales. Some models were in stock for 4-24 delivery for about six hours.

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  • Reply 304 of 362
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    nospamman wrote: »
    Black, large sport watch ordered and fully paid for by 12.10am California time and it was 4-6 weeks when I clicked on it at 12:02 or so.  Total farce.  Apple wasn't ready for this and barely has any supplies.  The masters of supply chain basically had about 1000 units and knew the rest would be built to order.  Makes me mad they talked out of their arse about a 4/24 delivery.  Now they'll just boast about "how high demand was" and how surprised(!) they were that everything sold out. Another Apple con job.  I miss the days when the company was struggling and had some integrity in equal measure to humility.  [sigh]

    We have no evidence that they had so few available, are working under a policy of building to order, or even assembling finished elements to order. We have only some speculation (to be kind about it) here from certain posters that Apple is being so cynical as to run a game on their customers like they and you suggest.

    Add: I see in your next post that you have an idea how they might done it better. That's always a possibility, I suppose, but I'd like to know the numbers involved.
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  • Reply 305 of 362
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,927member
    nospamman wrote: »
    Black, large sport watch ordered and fully paid for by 12.10am California time and it was 4-6 weeks when I clicked on it at 12:02 or so.  Total farce.  Apple wasn't ready for this and barely has any supplies.  The masters of supply chain basically had about 1000 units and knew the rest would be built to order.  Makes me mad they talked out of their arse about a 4/24 delivery.  Now they'll just boast about "how high demand was" and how surprised(!) they were that everything sold out. Another Apple con job.  I miss the days when the company was struggling and had some integrity in equal measure to humility.  [sigh]

    1000 units? Hahaha. Demand is high deal with it. They probably has a couple million or so units for the rollout countries.
    nospamman wrote: »

    But Dick, it's the game that Apple plays with everything.  Under-promise, over-deliver.  Yes, it's effective and I see the logic, but this time they totally failed at it.  They OVER PROMISED (probably knowingly to drive sales) and now they will under deliver.  Or another way of saying it is that they "might" deliver 2-3 weeks later than the 4/24 promise date, but they've primed us for 4-6 weeks so they still look the champ.  I think they should have just called off the 4/10 date and pushed that till they had a legitimate supply that couldn't sell out in less than 10 minutes.

    They didn't over promise anything. Point to the PR where they said everyone will get a watch in April. They have millions available but that's for all countries in the immediate rollouts (not just the initial one).
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  • Reply 306 of 362



    They promised 4/24 which was obviously known to be false by Apple, unless you think they can't count and have not spent a dime on estimating demand.

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  • Reply 307 of 362



    I'm an Apple guy.  I've been an Apple guy in a big way, affecting the purchases of thousands of people.  In the old days, when Apple was on the brink of bankruptcy or "failure," whatever you want to call it, I was one of the vocal people telling the minions to hang on and keep believing,

     

    Those days are gone.

     

    Apple is one of the biggest/richest corporation in the world.  Steve Jobs did it.  He saved the company and made it a boss, bitchin' totally powerful multinational greater than any other tech company, bigger than Exxon.  Number 1 on the Dow.  

     

    Apple doesn't need (or deserve) apologists anymore.  You and I don't need to apologize for batteries that catch on fire, or logic boards with capacitors that leak, or catastrophic hard drive failures, or any of the problems that any tech company will face in this industry.

     

    So stop it.

     

    Stop apologizing for Apple.  

     

    Hold them to the standard that THEY say they're committing to.

     

    This is not spin doctoring or trolling or any of that (and cynicism is healthy), but when a loyal customer stays up to play the game of Apple, the midnight ordering game and is not told the truth, we have to say something folks.  The TRUTH was that Apple knew they couldn't fill 97% (or more) of the orders that came in during the first few MINUTES.  Not even hours, but minutes.  It might be more accurate to talk about seconds, actually.  The first 300-500 seconds.

     

    This is on them and we don't have to pipe up and defend this wealthy, powerful multinational and pretend as if it's well meaning.  They don't need us anymore.  

     

    So stop apologizing for them.    That's Tim-o's job.

     

    I'm in the choir, in the family, and we should be able to speak honestly here and not be branded as heretics.

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  • Reply 308 of 362
    cornchipcornchip Posts: 1,954member
    It was either announce in Sept. 2014, or 9 months' worth of Chinese parts leaks.

    And they even had a hardware leak in June or July didn't they?
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  • Reply 309 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by NoSpamMan View Post

     



    I'm an Apple guy.  I've been an Apple guy in a big way, affecting the purchases of thousands of people.  In the old days, when Apple was on the brink of bankruptcy or "failure," whatever you want to call it, I was one of the vocal people telling the minions to hang on and keep believing,

     

    Those days are gone.

     

    Apple is one of the biggest/richest corporation in the world.  Steve Jobs did it.  He saved the company and made it a boss, bitchin' totally powerful multinational greater than any other tech company, bigger than Exxon.  Number 1 on the Dow.  

     

    Apple doesn't need (or deserve) apologists anymore.  You and I don't need to apologize for batteries that catch on fire, or logic boards with capacitors that leak, or catastrophic hard drive failures, or any of the problems that any tech company will face in this industry.

     

    So stop it.

     

    Stop apologizing for Apple.  

     

    Hold them to the standard that THEY say they're committing to.

     

    This is not spin doctoring or trolling or any of that (and cynicism is healthy), but when a loyal customer stays up to play the game of Apple, the midnight ordering game and is not told the truth, we have to say something folks.  The TRUTH was that Apple knew they couldn't fill 97% (or more) of the orders that came in during the first few MINUTES.  Not even hours, but minutes.  It might be more accurate to talk about seconds, actually.  The first 300-500 seconds.

     

    This is on them and we don't have to pipe up and defend this wealthy, powerful multinational and pretend as if it's well meaning.  They don't need us anymore.  

     

    So stop apologizing for them.    That's Tim-o's job.

     

    I'm in the choir, in the family, and we should be able to speak honestly here and not be branded as heretics.




    Nobody here is apologizing for anything, even assuming something needed an apology. Which, it doesn't. Apple Watch was "promised" to ship on 4/24, and short of some kind of unknown catastrophe, it will. Not shipping one to everybody who wants it on day one is not some sort of betrayal. You are being melodramatic. 

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  • Reply 310 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post





    1000 units? Hahaha. Demand is high deal with it. They probably has a couple million or so units for the rollout countries.

    They didn't over promise anything. Point to the PR where they said everyone will get a watch in April. They have millions available but that's for all countries in the immediate rollouts (not just the initial one).



    Here's a point I haven't heard mentioned before: For the first time that I can recall, North American customers essentially got the last shot at preordering an Apple product. Midnight PDT was pretty late to stay up (for most of us I presume), and for other N. American timezones, the hour when the flag dropped was ungodly unless you happen to work a swing shift. This time Asia, Australia, and Europe were in a much better position to preorder. I mention this because the usual conspiracy theory about Apple is they don't care about their customers outside of North America, or the U.S. Failing that conspiracy, now it's something about how they deliberately shorted the supply so... okay, help me with the logic of this, they could sell more of them. BTW I don't hear anyone in Australia, Asia or Europe saying "thank you Apple for not making us get up in the middle of the night to preorder." All I hear is new ways to complain about how they screwed it up somehow.

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  • Reply 311 of 362
    nospamman wrote: »
    Mmm ... don't know if it will happen -- but how will you feel if your delivery time improves as they get their act together?


    It's happened to me more than once -- I went to change a backordered item and it had already shipped!


    P.S. They don't charge your cc until the product is ready to ship -- so, not really fully paid for!


    But Dick, it's the game that Apple plays with everything.  Under-promise, over-deliver.  Yes, it's effective and I see the logic, but this time they totally failed at it.  They OVER PROMISED (probably knowingly to drive sales) and now they will under deliver.  Or another way of saying it is that they "might" deliver 2-3 weeks later than the 4/24 promise date, but they've primed us for 4-6 weeks so they still look the champ.  I think they should have just called off the 4/10 date and pushed that till they had a legitimate supply that couldn't sell out in less than 10 minutes.

    Again, you may think that's what Apple does ... but I don't believe it!

    In almost 37 years in dealing with Apple I have not found that to be true ... Apple tries to sell every product a customer is willing to buy in a timely, and profitable fashion.

    I am so impressed with their performance that I have tied a significant amount of my family's fortune to AAPL stock!
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  • Reply 312 of 362
    luinilluinil Posts: 59member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

     



    Here's a point I haven't heard mentioned before: For the first time that I can recall, North American customers essentially got the last shot at preordering an Apple product. Midnight PDT was pretty late to stay up (for most of us I presume), and for other N. American timezones, the hour when the flag dropped was ungodly unless you happen to work a swing shift. This time Asia, Australia, and Europe were in a much better position to preorder. I mention this because the usual conspiracy theory about Apple is they don't care about their customers outside of North America, or the U.S. Failing that conspiracy, now it's something about how they deliberately shorted the supply so... okay, help me with the logic of this, they could sell more of them. BTW I don't hear anyone in Australia, Asia or Europe saying "thank you Apple for not making us get up in the middle of the night to preorder." All I hear is new ways to complain about how they screwed it up somehow.


     

    From my point of view in Tokyo, America was in a much better position since yes, we were working and so not able to order the watch until we could have a pause or the end of the work day... In America most of you weren't working and nothing except yourself could make you unable to pre-order.

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  • Reply 313 of 362
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    People here don't understand the facts of inventory management. They are.

    1) you can't accurately estimate a new product.
    2) it would be nice to get supply demand equilibrium correct in the first quarter -- good inventory management is about exactly that - but it's not possible.
    3) it's better in the long run to under rather than over estimate.

    Let's say Apple were over cocky about a release and they pre-built 10M and sold to channel. However (for this thought experiment) only 5M sold to customers. Let's say that 5M a quarter is what they are going to sell from then on in.

    At their conference call they would announce 10M sales in the first Q after release and 0 sales in the second Q. *

    That kind of thing is disastrous. The press in the second quarter won't care about sales to customers. They will report collapsing shipments as collapsing sales.

    Now imagine same scenario with 2M available for launch. They will sell out so Apple starts building more units until it is in supply demand equilibrium. That probably won't happen in the 1Q but will sometime , probably in the second. Sales to channel will be something like 4M in Q1 and 6M in Q2. Reaching equilibrium *

    In both cases Apple will sell 10M units to customers. In the first case they get bad press ( sales collapse). In case 2 it looks like sales are increasing Q over Q even though final customer demand is 5M in both quarters.

    This will affect future sales as the media reports will affect the perception of the longetivity of the device.


    * slightly simplified as I have ignored the 3 weeks channel inventory they tend to end quarters with but that doesn't affect the argument.
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  • Reply 314 of 362
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,927member
    nospamman wrote: »

    They promised 4/24 which was obviously known to be false by Apple, unless you think they can't count and have not spent a dime on estimating demand.

    Point to the press release where Apple said everyone who wants a watch would get it on 4/24.
    nospamman wrote: »

    This is not spin doctoring or trolling or any of that (and cynicism is healthy), but when a loyal customer stays up to play the game of Apple, the midnight ordering game and is not told the truth, we have to say something folks.  The TRUTH was that Apple knew they couldn't fill 97% (or more) of the orders that came in during the first few MINUTES.  Not even hours, but minutes.  It might be more accurate to talk about seconds, actually.  The first 300-500 seconds.

    This is on them and we don't have to pipe up and defend this wealthy, powerful multinational and pretend as if it's well meaning.  They don't need us anymore.  

    More crying because you couldn't get one. Fact is you're not the only one who wanted the watch. That is the TRUTH.

    Where did you get 97% from? Oh right, it's just a made up number. So if they announce 3MM Preorders, 100 million watches would have been in demand on day one? That's more than the 75 MM iPhones sold in the holiday qtr.
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  • Reply 315 of 362
    siretmansiretman Posts: 120member
    No! AppleCare coverage begins when you receive the Apple product! If you cancel the order, they will refund the AppleCare charge to your cc.

    If you think about what you'd want Apple to do in any situation -- likely, they already do it ... Or will do it, if you tell them about their situation.

    I've been dealing with Apple for almost 37 years (June 1978) and have always been satisfied with the way I have been treated.

     
    When I called Apple about this, I was told that if I cancel and wait until I get the watches that the effective date will still go back to the purchase date. I was flabbergasted because it does not make any sense from Apple.
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  • Reply 316 of 362
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

     



    Nobody here is apologizing for anything, even assuming something needed an apology. Which, it doesn't. Apple Watch was "promised" to ship on 4/24, and short of some kind of unknown catastrophe, it will. Not shipping one to everybody who wants it on day one is not some sort of betrayal. You are being melodramatic. 




    I still think it's bizarre you feel the call to defend Apple here.  Will they technically ship to people on 4/24?  Probably.  But if trying to buy one 300-500 seconds after launch time and it already says "4-6 weeks?"  C'mon, matey.  The only melodrama here is your fear that Apple botched this launch and misled us in the process.

     

    And that's exactly what they did.  Actions speak louder than holy words.  

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  • Reply 317 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by luinil View Post

     

     

    From my point of view in Tokyo, America was in a much better position since yes, we were working and so not able to order the watch until we could have a pause or the end of the work day... In America most of you weren't working and nothing except yourself could make you unable to pre-order.




    Preordering started at 3:00 AM on the East Coast of the U.S. I don't know anyone who is normally up at that hour, or who could afford to stay up that late, assuming they work the next day. Staying up to midnight here on the West Coast was difficult enough.

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  • Reply 318 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by NoSpamMan View Post

     



    I still think it's bizarre you feel the call to defend Apple here.  Will they technically ship to people on 4/24?  Probably.  But if trying to buy one 300-500 seconds after launch time and it already says "4-6 weeks?"  C'mon, matey.  Ease off the Kool Aid.  The only melodrama here is your fear that Apple botched this launch and misled us in the process.

     

    And that's exactly what they did.  Actions speak louder than holy words.  




    I think your entire line of reasoning is bizarre. Ease off the cliches.

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  • Reply 319 of 362
    mrboba1mrboba1 Posts: 276member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by NoSpamMan View Post

     

    Actions speak louder than holy words.  


     

    Speaking of actions...

     

    Why don't we wait and see what the actions actually are? Saying 4-6 weeks (which is 2-4 weeks after launch date) are still just words.

    Ever hear of underpromise and overdeliver?

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  • Reply 320 of 362
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post





    Point to the press release where Apple said everyone who wants a watch would get it on 4/24.

    More crying because you couldn't get one. Fact is you're not the only one who wanted the watch. That is the TRUTH.



    Where did you get 97% from? Oh right, it's just a made up number. So if they announce 3MM Preorders, 100 million watches would have been in demand on day one? That's more than the 75 MM iPhones sold in the holiday qtr.



    4/24 is on every scrap of marketing that Apple did.  Exaggerating the statement to try and make mine wrong is a sloppy, fallacious argument.  No one is suggesting that "everyone" who wanted a watch would get it on 4/24.  What I'm suggesting is that Apple knowingly did not have a reasonable supply in place and they knew it.  It's more accurate to say that they sold out in seconds, not minutes.  They could have postponed, limited countries, limited sales to one watch and so forth and so on.  It's not my job to figure this stuff out for them.  Apple has BILLIONS they can pour into doing this right.

     

    Mr. Jung, perhaps it's time to examine the shadow side here.  No one is "crying."  When Apple fans (or even just "customers") legitimately complain about a problem, it's not like we've insulted your religion or therapist.  We are criticizing an amoral multinational corporation for misrepresenting itself.  When Steve Jobs was still alive, I suppose we could have some reason to anthropomorphize Apple, but no more.

     

    Hey, no global, multi-national corporation can get it right all the time.  I get that.  But they don't get a free pass to manipulate the truth either.  When we call them on it, we're not children "crying," we're intelligent, un-brainwashed adults with critical faculties.  

     

    Oh, and in the interests of transparency, yes, I made up that 97% figure to make a point.

     

    Studies show that 87% of all statistics are made up anyway.  ;-)  

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