Respect to kgi, but that doesn't make any sense. There will be an updated plastic iPhone 5s/6c with Apple Pay and newer chipset. Makes no sense to canabalize the 6 sales at lower margins and keep it along with the 6s. I fully expect a repeat of the 5s introduction without the 5. An updated plastic 5/6 makes not only the most financial sense, but would move consumers forward so Apple doesn't have to support legacy too long on the tooth.
I like to see how Apple price the new "user wishful" 4" iPhone in the line up beside 4.7" and 5.5". There's no way they will do $99 subsidized for a brand new design 4" phone. My conclusion: there's no iPhone 4" ever. Android dropped it, no one else makes it. Apple follow the same direction.
This is how I'd see it
4" iPhone 5s - $0 on contract
4.7" iPhone 6c - $99 on contract
4" iPhone 6s - $149 on contract
4.7" iPhone 6s - $200 on contract
5.5" iPhone 6s Plus - $300 on contract
No worry about cannabalization. Every price point necessary has an iPhone in its spot. A new 4" would only be $50 cheaper than a new 4.7" so there's the upsell while keeping the 4" for those that want it (I'd switch from my 6 to it). Or they can wait next year to create the new 4" with a new design.
Yes some people who want to save $100 are buying the 5S. And it will be the perfect $0 later this year.
Its been proven already that people love the bigger phones. They sold 75 million of them in Dec Qtr vs 49 million for the 5S.
Meaning the current model sold 50% more than the previous year's model. There were years of pent-up demand for bigger phones, and Q4 2014 was the first opportunity for iPhone customer to have that option, so it's no surprise that sales were huge; next year's out-of-contract cohort will bring another Q4 of strong sales. Whether that implies that the demand for small phones has declined is pure conjecture, since many or most of those customers already had a smaller phone. The only way to empirically gauge relative demand for different sizes would be for Apple to simultaneously release a new 4" phone along with the 6x series for an A/B test.
2) Also keep in mind Apple does not really sell that many of their bottom tier phone. Maybe 1 or 2 million units. And people who buy those are not really the target for ApplePay.
1) I agree...except it will be a 4" device, not a 4.7".
2) This is profoundly incorrect. No clue where you get that idea. Its just, false. While Apple doesn't release these numbers, many other sales metrics have come out in the past indicating, year after year, 1/3 of all iPhone sales are of $0 and $99 price points (combined). The majority of those being the $99 model. That model is extremely important to Apple's lineup and strategy every year, which is why, without fail, they treat that tier with a great deal of care. In 2013 they even developed a brand new iPhone design specifically for that tier.
All that matters is this: 1) Upgrade volume to the iPhone 6, & 2) Sales of the 5s from Sept.'14-onward. These two factors will tell Apple whether or not the 4" model needs a spec bump this year, and whether or not a 4" model at $99 will sell.
I know you are an extremist when it comes to iPhone size, but the reality is NOT EVERY iPhone customer wants their iPhone to be larger than 4". This seems to be the max size that some people are comfortable with. While others, like myself, are perfectly happy to embrace the 6 and even the 6 Plus. One is not inherently better than the other...because unlike performance specs, device/screen size is simply user preference.
Apple will respond to whatever their sales numbers tell them. But I am very much anticipating their response to be a 4" iPhone 6C...basically the 5C design, body, and display...with a A8 chip, Touch ID, and ApplePay.
Is it any wonder that there exactly ZERO premium Android phones that are 4 inches? bottom line is the market has spoken. Of course there will be a few hundred thousand people who prefer the 4 inch phone but that pales into comparrison to the vast majority who want larger phones. Apple does not make niche products and the 4 inch phone is quickly becoming one.
Like I said: 50% more than 49 million. If you were talking about a 3-4x difference which would be a "vast majority," you'd have a point, but this isn't even twice as much—and this is for the current model versus the previous year's model.
The reason there are no "premium" Android phones is the same reason there are no matte screen monitors. Glossy has more impact at the point of sale despite the long-term disadvantages. Android vendors have to compete with other Android vendors. iPhones don't have that internecine conflict. The "niche" is only in your mind.
So are you saying Apple was wrong moving to bigger phones?
No the niche is not in my mind. Its a FACT.
In 2015 - 95% of premium phones sold will be larger than 4 inches.
Of course I'm not saying Apple was wrong in "moving" to bigger phones (more accurately: adding them). That would be silly. The market for larger phones is huge, and last year was the first year Apple addressed that market, so the sales numbers reflected years of pent-up demand. The markets for larger and smaller phone aren't mutually exclusive. I have no problem with people preferring large phones, but the monomania for driving out smaller alternatives is ludicrous.
The 95% figure factors in Android smartphone distributions, which are irrelevant.
If someone went back to my earliest comments on here regarding the iPhone, it was that it was too big (in my opinion) at 3.5 inches. I wanted a smaller phone like the LG Dare I owned at the time.
I managed to move on to the "larger" iPhone and now own an iPhone 5S. However I really prefer the smaller sized phones. I absolutely am a one handed iPhone user and wish to remain that way. An updated 4 inch iPhone with ApplePay and whatever is next in camera optics would be great for me and I'd slap down my money for it. My wife has the iPhone 6 and I could easily have one as well. I just don't like the size.
adapt. I miss horse and carriage also. time to move on.
If the size of my hand were determined by my willingness to adopt a certain technology versus being say a Luddite regarding it, I could see your point. However the size of my hand hasn't changed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gameboy70
Of course I'm not saying Apple was wrong in "moving" to bigger phones (more accurately: adding them). That would be silly. The market for larger phones is huge, and last year was the first year Apple addressed that market, so the sales numbers reflected years of pent-up demand. The markets for larger and smaller phone aren't mutually exclusive. I have no problem with people preferring large phones, but the monomania for driving out smaller alternatives is ludicrous.
The 95% figure factors in Android smartphone distributions, which are irrelevant.
If there was strong demand for 4 inch phones than we would see a premium 4 inch Android.
Thats the bottom line.
No we wouldn't because Apple captures almost all the market for premium phones. When Apple had a four inch phones no Android phone could compete with it so they created the new phablet category to try to gain some sales in a different area. When Apple created a premium larger sized phone, they immediately captured the majority of sales and profits in these other market segments as well.
The reason Apple needs to create a new 4 inch phone is to really limit the growth of Android and give it no way back into to the premium portion of the market where the majority of profits are at right now.
Let's see if you can follow the logic.
Apple captures majority of smartphone profits.
Android phone makers attempt to grab profits by competing with larger phones.
Android phone makers gain some marketshare and profits.
Apple counters with larger phones.
Apple recaptures marketshare and profits from Android phone makers.
Apple leaves 4 inch smartphones space....
The answer is obvious. Android phone makers begin to promote phones in the 4in space trying to capture premium profits because there is no Apple to compete with in that space. Before when Apple was there they could make no inroads. Now.....
Apple should produce a 4 inch phone because it is an awesome form factor that works and has made them lots of money. However they should also do it because it keeps competitors from trying to come into that space and grab a toehold back into a potentially premium and profitable space.
Sold like hotcakes? They only sold about 30 million iPhone 4S in the Dec quarter. The 6 sold 75 million. Huge difference.
Plus the 4S came out one and a half years AFTER the 4, so many iPhone4 users actually upgraded to the 4S mid year.
The facts are in. The 4S canabalzied the iPhone 5. With the iPhone5 over HALF of iPhones sold were iPhone4 and 4S. There was massive canibalization. Average Unit price was plummeting. This was only reversed when the 5S came out and the 5C was the mid range. Average unit prices have gone up and more people are buying the flagship. Going back to selling the non-S model for $99 would be stupidity.
Wrong. iPhone 6 sale was not 75 million but both 6 and 6S. So, if 6 account 2:1 based on studies, you're looking at 50 million iPhone 6. Apple don't mind cannibalization if there's any. So far, there's been no proof of cannibalization but just pure speculation including whatever you claimed on 4 and 4S or 5. It doesn't matter. Apple know their business. That's where 4S was released and same as iPad Mini and now 6S. Apple never expect the "S" version is a blowout sale since it's mid-term upgrade. Still, their number will let you know why we're wrong all along.
Wrong. iPhone 6 sale was not 75 million but both 6 and 6S. So, if 6 account 2:1 based on studies, you're looking at 50 million iPhone 6. Apple don't mind cannibalization if there's any. So far, there's been no proof of cannibalization but just pure speculation including whatever you claimed on 4 and 4S or 5. It doesn't matter. Apple know their business. That's where 4S was released and same as iPad Mini and now 6S. Apple never expect the "S" version is a blowout sale since it's mid-term upgrade. Still, their number will let you know why we're wrong all along.
Sorry. It is just not worth it for Apple to product a 4 inch phone that will only a sell a few million units.
The only way I see a 4 inch phone is if they sell it for MORE than the 4.7 inch. The reason is because of economies of scale. They will make about 80 million 4.7 inch phones so cost per unit will actually be smaller than a 4 inch phone that only sells a few million.
Its time to move on. The 4 inch phone is quickly become a niche and outdated product.
None of this made sense. They sell more than a few million 4" phones already. They would never sell the 4" for more than the 4.7" unless the 4" had something the 4.7" didn't have. Most of the innards of a new 4" would be similar to the 4.7" just like the 6 and 6 Plus save for a few things the 6 Plus is able to fit over the 6. The only thing that need be different is the screen and casing size.
All they would really need to do would be to add an NFC chip. They were able to add it to ? Watch just fine. And then update the chip to the A8.
None of this made sense. They sell more than a few million 4" phones already. They would never sell the 4" for more than the 4.7" unless the 4" had something the 4.7" didn't have. Most of the innards of a new 4" would be similar to the 4.7" just like the 6 and 6 Plus save for a few things the 6 Plus is able to fit over the 6. The only thing that need be different is the screen and casing size.
All they would really need to do would be to add an NFC chip. They were able to add it to ? Watch just fine. And then update the chip to the A8.
I don't think it would be as simple as that. The 4.7" version is "stuffed" in its volume with components and battery. In a 4" form factor, if they keep the same design as the 4.7", it would need to be thicker, or have less battery. Making the changes to accommodate the smaller 4" form factor is more than just shrinking it down. It will take a good bit of effort on the design side, and the end result is likely a thicker phone (not just a smaller 4.7"). Some may say that is fine, but question is how many additional buyers it creates.
I do agree there are consequences to not having a 4" model. Some Android manufactures will then try to target that space for "smaller" phones (oh the irony), and some Apple devotes will hold off on upgrading. The question is how many...and no one...except Apple, as any knowledge on that manner in the aggregate.
I don't think it would be as simple as that. The 4.7" version is "stuffed" in its volume with components and battery. In a 4" form factor, if they keep the same design as the 4.7", it would need to be thicker, or have less battery. Making the changes to accommodate the smaller 4" form factor is more than just shrinking it down. It will take a good bit of effort on the design side, and the end result is likely a thicker phone (not just a smaller 4.7"). Some may say that is fine, but question is how many additional buyers it creates.
I would posit that the 4" phone wouldn't need to be thicker because it wouldn't need as big a battery. The screen wouldn't be as resolution-intensive as the current iPhone 6 and we all know the screen is one of the biggest draws of the battery.
I would posit that the 4" phone wouldn't need to be thicker because it wouldn't need as big a battery. The screen wouldn't be as resolution-intensive as the current iPhone 6 and we all know the screen is one of the biggest draws of the battery.
You know what iPhone is not a little toy you can just stuff something inside and call it a product. You put a NFC chip in 4" and call it minor upgrade? NFC chip comes with the board and antenna of its own Implementing it in the existing 4" version? You gotta be kidding me. That needs a full redesign of the chassis, main board, case, antenna and such...also, R&D and device testing resources too. That's why Apple would not go through troubles to sell the device at lower margin. New 4" is dead. Learn to adapt with 4.7".
Comments
Never. Never? Okay buddy.
Makes no sense to canabalize the 6 sales at lower margins and keep it along with the 6s. I fully expect a repeat of the 5s introduction without the 5.
An updated plastic 5/6 makes not only the most financial sense, but would move consumers forward so Apple doesn't have to support legacy too long on the tooth.
This is how I'd see it
4" iPhone 5s - $0 on contract
4.7" iPhone 6c - $99 on contract
4" iPhone 6s - $149 on contract
4.7" iPhone 6s - $200 on contract
5.5" iPhone 6s Plus - $300 on contract
No worry about cannabalization. Every price point necessary has an iPhone in its spot. A new 4" would only be $50 cheaper than a new 4.7" so there's the upsell while keeping the 4" for those that want it (I'd switch from my 6 to it). Or they can wait next year to create the new 4" with a new design.
what the hell does 'remain strong' mean.
Yes some people who want to save $100 are buying the 5S. And it will be the perfect $0 later this year.
Its been proven already that people love the bigger phones. They sold 75 million of them in Dec Qtr vs 49 million for the 5S.
Meaning the current model sold 50% more than the previous year's model. There were years of pent-up demand for bigger phones, and Q4 2014 was the first opportunity for iPhone customer to have that option, so it's no surprise that sales were huge; next year's out-of-contract cohort will bring another Q4 of strong sales. Whether that implies that the demand for small phones has declined is pure conjecture, since many or most of those customers already had a smaller phone. The only way to empirically gauge relative demand for different sizes would be for Apple to simultaneously release a new 4" phone along with the 6x series for an A/B test.
Move to Pennsylvania, they have plenty there.
They have for much longer than they haven't.
Yet they do exactly that for the Mac, and MBs
The 5S will be free in Sept not $99
1) The $99 phone will be the plastic iPhone6.
2) Also keep in mind Apple does not really sell that many of their bottom tier phone. Maybe 1 or 2 million units. And people who buy those are not really the target for ApplePay.
1) I agree...except it will be a 4" device, not a 4.7".
2) This is profoundly incorrect. No clue where you get that idea. Its just, false. While Apple doesn't release these numbers, many other sales metrics have come out in the past indicating, year after year, 1/3 of all iPhone sales are of $0 and $99 price points (combined). The majority of those being the $99 model. That model is extremely important to Apple's lineup and strategy every year, which is why, without fail, they treat that tier with a great deal of care. In 2013 they even developed a brand new iPhone design specifically for that tier.
All that matters is this: 1) Upgrade volume to the iPhone 6, & 2) Sales of the 5s from Sept.'14-onward. These two factors will tell Apple whether or not the 4" model needs a spec bump this year, and whether or not a 4" model at $99 will sell.
I know you are an extremist when it comes to iPhone size, but the reality is NOT EVERY iPhone customer wants their iPhone to be larger than 4". This seems to be the max size that some people are comfortable with. While others, like myself, are perfectly happy to embrace the 6 and even the 6 Plus. One is not inherently better than the other...because unlike performance specs, device/screen size is simply user preference.
Apple will respond to whatever their sales numbers tell them. But I am very much anticipating their response to be a 4" iPhone 6C...basically the 5C design, body, and display...with a A8 chip, Touch ID, and ApplePay.
75 million is much larger than 49 million.
I don't care what excuse you make.
Is it any wonder that there exactly ZERO premium Android phones that are 4 inches? bottom line is the market has spoken. Of course there will be a few hundred thousand people who prefer the 4 inch phone but that pales into comparrison to the vast majority who want larger phones. Apple does not make niche products and the 4 inch phone is quickly becoming one.
Like I said: 50% more than 49 million. If you were talking about a 3-4x difference which would be a "vast majority," you'd have a point, but this isn't even twice as much—and this is for the current model versus the previous year's model.
The reason there are no "premium" Android phones is the same reason there are no matte screen monitors. Glossy has more impact at the point of sale despite the long-term disadvantages. Android vendors have to compete with other Android vendors. iPhones don't have that internecine conflict. The "niche" is only in your mind.
A better question is, what would've happened if they didn’t build a bigger phone?
So are you saying Apple was wrong moving to bigger phones?
No the niche is not in my mind. Its a FACT.
In 2015 - 95% of premium phones sold will be larger than 4 inches.
Of course I'm not saying Apple was wrong in "moving" to bigger phones (more accurately: adding them). That would be silly. The market for larger phones is huge, and last year was the first year Apple addressed that market, so the sales numbers reflected years of pent-up demand. The markets for larger and smaller phone aren't mutually exclusive. I have no problem with people preferring large phones, but the monomania for driving out smaller alternatives is ludicrous.
The 95% figure factors in Android smartphone distributions, which are irrelevant.
If someone went back to my earliest comments on here regarding the iPhone, it was that it was too big (in my opinion) at 3.5 inches. I wanted a smaller phone like the LG Dare I owned at the time.
I managed to move on to the "larger" iPhone and now own an iPhone 5S. However I really prefer the smaller sized phones. I absolutely am a one handed iPhone user and wish to remain that way. An updated 4 inch iPhone with ApplePay and whatever is next in camera optics would be great for me and I'd slap down my money for it. My wife has the iPhone 6 and I could easily have one as well. I just don't like the size.
adapt. I miss horse and carriage also. time to move on.
Quote:
Of course I'm not saying Apple was wrong in "moving" to bigger phones (more accurately: adding them). That would be silly. The market for larger phones is huge, and last year was the first year Apple addressed that market, so the sales numbers reflected years of pent-up demand. The markets for larger and smaller phone aren't mutually exclusive. I have no problem with people preferring large phones, but the monomania for driving out smaller alternatives is ludicrous.
The 95% figure factors in Android smartphone distributions, which are irrelevant.
If there was strong demand for 4 inch phones than we would see a premium 4 inch Android.
Thats the bottom line.
Sold like hotcakes? They only sold about 30 million iPhone 4S in the Dec quarter. The 6 sold 75 million. Huge difference.
Plus the 4S came out one and a half years AFTER the 4, so many iPhone4 users actually upgraded to the 4S mid year.
The facts are in. The 4S canabalzied the iPhone 5. With the iPhone5 over HALF of iPhones sold were iPhone4 and 4S. There was massive canibalization. Average Unit price was plummeting. This was only reversed when the 5S came out and the 5C was the mid range. Average unit prices have gone up and more people are buying the flagship. Going back to selling the non-S model for $99 would be stupidity.
Wrong. iPhone 6 sale was not 75 million but both 6 and 6S. So, if 6 account 2:1 based on studies, you're looking at 50 million iPhone 6. Apple don't mind cannibalization if there's any. So far, there's been no proof of cannibalization but just pure speculation including whatever you claimed on 4 and 4S or 5. It doesn't matter. Apple know their business. That's where 4S was released and same as iPad Mini and now 6S. Apple never expect the "S" version is a blowout sale since it's mid-term upgrade. Still, their number will let you know why we're wrong all along.
That also included all the 5s/5c sold.
That also included all the 5s/5c sold.
Right. I forgot....all versions of iPhone. So, the number iPhone 6 sale could be like a lot less, maybe in 25 millions.
All they would really need to do would be to add an NFC chip. They were able to add it to ? Watch just fine. And then update the chip to the A8.
None of this made sense. They sell more than a few million 4" phones already. They would never sell the 4" for more than the 4.7" unless the 4" had something the 4.7" didn't have. Most of the innards of a new 4" would be similar to the 4.7" just like the 6 and 6 Plus save for a few things the 6 Plus is able to fit over the 6. The only thing that need be different is the screen and casing size.
All they would really need to do would be to add an NFC chip. They were able to add it to ? Watch just fine. And then update the chip to the A8.
I don't think it would be as simple as that. The 4.7" version is "stuffed" in its volume with components and battery. In a 4" form factor, if they keep the same design as the 4.7", it would need to be thicker, or have less battery. Making the changes to accommodate the smaller 4" form factor is more than just shrinking it down. It will take a good bit of effort on the design side, and the end result is likely a thicker phone (not just a smaller 4.7"). Some may say that is fine, but question is how many additional buyers it creates.
I do agree there are consequences to not having a 4" model. Some Android manufactures will then try to target that space for "smaller" phones (oh the irony), and some Apple devotes will hold off on upgrading. The question is how many...and no one...except Apple, as any knowledge on that manner in the aggregate.
I would posit that the 4" phone wouldn't need to be thicker because it wouldn't need as big a battery. The screen wouldn't be as resolution-intensive as the current iPhone 6 and we all know the screen is one of the biggest draws of the battery.
I would posit that the 4" phone wouldn't need to be thicker because it wouldn't need as big a battery. The screen wouldn't be as resolution-intensive as the current iPhone 6 and we all know the screen is one of the biggest draws of the battery.
You know what iPhone is not a little toy you can just stuff something inside and call it a product. You put a NFC chip in 4" and call it minor upgrade? NFC chip comes with the board and antenna of its own Implementing it in the existing 4" version? You gotta be kidding me. That needs a full redesign of the chassis, main board, case, antenna and such...also, R&D and device testing resources too. That's why Apple would not go through troubles to sell the device at lower margin. New 4" is dead. Learn to adapt with 4.7".