Apple's iPhone shipments 'likely' to fall below 200M in 2016, insider says
With lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 6s, a soft iPhone SE launch, and dual-camera designs from competitors expected to beat the 'iPhone 7 Plus' to market, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes iPhone shipments could fall below 200 million units this year.

The KGI Securities analyst, who has a strong track record in predicting Apple's future product plans, made his predictions in a note to investors on Monday, a copy of which was obtained by AppleInsider. In it, he forecast shipments of between 85 million and 95 million iPhone units in the first half of 2016, followed by 105 million to 115 million in the back half of the year.
In all, that means he believes iPhone units will fall between 190 million and 210 million for the full year, and he believes Apple is "likely" to see sales fall on the short end of that prediction, dipping under 200 million.
To put the forecast in perspective, Apple shipped 232 million iPhones in 2015. And most on Wall Street expect Apple to ship between 210 million and 230 million iPhones this year.
Kuo's conservative predictions are led by a trio of factors, most notably that he believes replacement demand for larger displays is slowing down. In addition, the newly launched iPhone SE does not present a new form factor, so he believes it won't appeal to a large number of consumers.
But perhaps the most interesting forecast is related to Apple's upcoming "iPhone 7:" Kuo continues to believe that Apple's anticipated dual-camera iSight array will be exclusive to the larger 5.5-inch "Plus" model. If true, that would mean Apple's more popular 4.7-inch model won't gain the same advanced camera system.

In addition, Kuo said a number of Apple's competitors, including Xiaomi, ZTE and Lenovo, are all planning to launch their own dual-camera smartphone systems, and many of them are expected to beat Apple's "iPhone 7 Plus" to market. If that happens, he believes first impressions of Apple's system could "underwhelm" prospective buyers.
Kuo has a proven track record in predicting Apple's future product plans. Most recently, he was first to peg the $400 to$500 pricing range and all of the hardware specifications for Apple's newly launched iPhone SE, which he expects will see 12 million shipments in 2016.

The KGI Securities analyst, who has a strong track record in predicting Apple's future product plans, made his predictions in a note to investors on Monday, a copy of which was obtained by AppleInsider. In it, he forecast shipments of between 85 million and 95 million iPhone units in the first half of 2016, followed by 105 million to 115 million in the back half of the year.
In all, that means he believes iPhone units will fall between 190 million and 210 million for the full year, and he believes Apple is "likely" to see sales fall on the short end of that prediction, dipping under 200 million.
To put the forecast in perspective, Apple shipped 232 million iPhones in 2015. And most on Wall Street expect Apple to ship between 210 million and 230 million iPhones this year.
Kuo's conservative predictions are led by a trio of factors, most notably that he believes replacement demand for larger displays is slowing down. In addition, the newly launched iPhone SE does not present a new form factor, so he believes it won't appeal to a large number of consumers.
But perhaps the most interesting forecast is related to Apple's upcoming "iPhone 7:" Kuo continues to believe that Apple's anticipated dual-camera iSight array will be exclusive to the larger 5.5-inch "Plus" model. If true, that would mean Apple's more popular 4.7-inch model won't gain the same advanced camera system.

In addition, Kuo said a number of Apple's competitors, including Xiaomi, ZTE and Lenovo, are all planning to launch their own dual-camera smartphone systems, and many of them are expected to beat Apple's "iPhone 7 Plus" to market. If that happens, he believes first impressions of Apple's system could "underwhelm" prospective buyers.
Kuo has a proven track record in predicting Apple's future product plans. Most recently, he was first to peg the $400 to$500 pricing range and all of the hardware specifications for Apple's newly launched iPhone SE, which he expects will see 12 million shipments in 2016.
Comments
Yeah, because history shows us that all companies need to do is ship products and features before Apple in order to "win", and that Apple customers buy Apple products because of a bullet list of features, not the entire design, experience, package, brand, and ecosystem.
There is no fucking way in hell Apple will sell LESS iPhones this year than last year, especially considering they will be on a "tick" cycle with a brand new iPhone body. Kuo is a facking moron, but of course, he will still be considered a "noted" analyst even when his sales projections turn out to be complete horse-shit.
Also I wish Apple should not differentiate the plus model form the regular model in terms for dual-cameras. Both should get them. I'd even go one step further and say iPhone 7 should be released in three sizes that includes a ~4" form—with dual-cameras for all three.
I tell you not sure who it doing the Right and wrong Tally on this guy, but for the most part this guys does far better or closer to the real numbers than any of the wall street Analysis who are always far more wrong than right, but we also know the wall street analysis create FUD and uncertainty so your big $ investors can make money on the wild swings they cause the stock to take.
On the dual camera, we all know this feature will really come down to software, and we all know who have the better software which works well. Yeah they may have the feature but will it even work or will they have to wait two years before google updates software.
^^^ This.
I suspect that Apple may be ending its Tick-Tock strategy and releasing new products when they will realize the best [competitive] advantage ... I think the iPhone SE and new 9.7 iPad Pro are the first incarnations of this new strategy.
Second, the guy is not that accurate in sales forecasts as is in product launches. And in this he lately predicted that the iPhone 5s would be sold alongside the SE for $250, not so accurate as we know now. Not to forget that when Apple launched the 5s he forecasted sales in the first week end between 6 to 8 million, but, as in this report, he thought they would be nearer six than eight, but they ended being 9 million.
Ming-Chi-Kuo is a supply chain expert, so he is accurate predicting a slow down in production, or the specifications of the next product launches, but his forecasts are made based on suppliers mostly. He was the first to speak about the iPhone SE, and the first to say that it was basically a 4" 6s, and he nailed, as usual. But in sales forecasts he make as much mistakes as everybody. Last year in the F3Q he overestimated by a huge margin the iPhone sales and underestimated the iPad ones, by nearly the same margin.