If iPhone X demand is less than expected, analyst expects it to be 'end of life' when repl...

AppleInsiderAppleInsider
Posted:
in iPhone edited June 2020
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has weighed in on iPhone X production rumors, also believing that there has been a reduction in orders -- and because of weak demand the iPhone X design may be a one-up with production ceasing in the summer when replacements for the fall are being produced.




In a research note seen by AppleInsider, KGI Securities' Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Apple will ship around 18 million of the iPhone X in the first calendar quarter of 2018. Contrary to other predictions based on the supply chain, KGI says that the iPhone X has not been as impactful in China as predicted because of the notch holding the sensors for the device, giving consumers the impression that there is less usable space than on the iPhone 8 Plus.

KGI also expects a trio of iPhone models in the fall of 2018. He predicts the iPhone X will be "end of life" in the summer of 2018, instead of being retained as a lower-cost option in the following year. If this is the case, it would be the first time that Apple has not retained the previous year's model to allow for a wide range of iPhones available at many price points.

To replace the iPhone X, Kuo reiterates that the technologies will migrate to other models, and an "iPhone X Plus" model will debut, off-setting the concerns about usable screen area.

Apple is being buoyed by the iPhone 6s and iPhone 7 families in developing markets, with both models being more popular than expected -- but this is not the first time that this has been said. The firm remains "positive on Apple [and] the iPhone supply chain" in part because of the unexpected popularity of the older devices.

Kuo is expecting small growth from the first half of 2018, with up to 5 percent growth. The note claims that any "super cycle" will start up in the fall of 2018 with Apple seeing 10 percent growth in the entirety of calendar year 2018, launched by the most growth after the releases in the fall.

No comment was made about the 2017 holiday season results in the report, and all of Kuo's predictions are for the remainder of the calendar year -- Apple's second through fourth fiscal quarters of 2018, and the first fiscal quarter of 2019.
Avieshek
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 53
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    Right on cue a couple weeks before earnings. Somebody needs the stock to drop.
    mike1lkruppandrewj5790emig647tdknoxtmayrotateleftbyteradster360doozydozenjony0
  • Reply 2 of 53
    red oakred oak Posts: 1,104member
    I wish AI would keep a running side by side of what he (and other key analysts) predict and what actually happens.   Kuo seems right only about 50% of the time 
    edited January 2018 jasenj1lmasantinetmageretrogustowatto_cobradoozydozen
  • Reply 3 of 53
    DanielEranDanielEran Posts: 290editor
    So Apple is going to terminate production of an iPhone after it replaces it with a new model? 

    Holy cow, somebody tell CNBC.
    mike1curtis hannahtmayretrogustorandominternetpersonwatto_cobraAvieshekcaladaniankingofsomewherehotbaconstang
  • Reply 4 of 53
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,643member
    So it's time for the annual report that *iPhone production is being slashed due to lower demand". Yup right after the holidays and right on schedule. 
    curtis hannahwatto_cobradoozydozenjony0badmonk
  • Reply 5 of 53
    LukeCageLukeCage Posts: 166member


    He predicts the iPhone X will be "end of life" in the summer of 2018, instead of being retained as a lower-cost option in the following year. If this is the case, it would be the first time that Apple has not retained the previous year's model to allow for a wide range of iPhones available at many price points.


    So when this doesn’t pan out will Ming Chi Kuo weigh in on why he was wrong. When has Apple ever done this with any of its flagship products? 
    watto_cobradoozydozenbadmonk
  • Reply 6 of 53
    ndirishfan1975ndirishfan1975 Posts: 159member
    I work at a carrier store and I can tell you it is by a large margin the most popular phone in our store. I was actually surprised. I thought people would be interested but get scared off by the price but that has not been the case. 
    tmayretrogustolkalliancewatto_cobrabonobobequality72521radster360doozydozencornchipbadmonk
  • Reply 7 of 53
    mavemufcmavemufc Posts: 326member
    Aren’t they already working on making the notch smaller anyway? The amount of times I’ve read stories about iPhone sales or orders are cut or dropped and 90% of the time it’s not true at all.
    watto_cobradoozydozencornchip
  • Reply 8 of 53
    mavemufcmavemufc Posts: 326member
    red oak said:
    I wish AI would keep a running side by side of what he (and other key analysts) predict and what actually happens.   Kuo seems right only about 50% of the time 
    He still gets more right than wrong, and he’s better than most others.
    baconstangdoozydozen
  • Reply 9 of 53
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,643member
    So Apple is going to terminate production of an iPhone after it replaces it with a new model? 

    Holy cow, somebody tell CNBC.
    Daniel, aren't iPhone 7's still in production even tho the 8's and X are out now?

    Anyway AFAIK the editor of the AI article was accurate when stating "If this is the case, it would be the first time that Apple has not retained the previous year's model..." Is there a previous instance you can think of? You know far more about Apple than I do. 
    [Deleted User]rogifan_newnetmageAvieshekdoozydozencornchip
  • Reply 10 of 53
    macxpressmacxpress Posts: 5,939member
    You simply cannot predict sales based on supply chain data. This has never worked and never will. There are far too many variables.
    watto_cobracornchip
  • Reply 11 of 53
    Atomic77Atomic77 Posts: 64member
    Kill It. there are too many iphones in the world as we know it.
    saltyzipdoozydozen
  • Reply 12 of 53
    BebeBebe Posts: 145member
    ... Contrary to other predictions based on the supply chain, KGI says that the iPhone X has not been as impactful in China as predicted ....
    Oh boy, another prediction based on supply chain reports. 
    watto_cobracornchip
  • Reply 13 of 53
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    DanielEran said:
    So Apple is going to terminate production of an iPhone after it replaces it with a new model? 

    Holy cow, somebody tell CNBC.
    Um, Apple is still selling the 6S and 7.
    cornchip
  • Reply 14 of 53
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Misleading headline.  And a bit of confusing logic by MCK.  An Apple decision to not continue selling the existing iPhone X after new models are announced could have nothing to do with how it has sold over the year.  With such an expansive iPhone lineup as they currently have - and likely would continue to have if introducing 3 new models again - it would make perfect sense to NOT sell it.  

    Taking a few of the rumours around, Apple might introduce a single new iPhone LCD model (larger screen), as well as two iPhone X nextgen (5.8" and a larger model).  Such an Apple lineup could have
    - Two NEW iPhone X-like models
    - 1 NEW iPhone LCD (like an iPhone 9)
    - iPhone 8/8+
    - iPhone 7/7+
    - iPhone SE

    Not a lot of room in there to keep the existing iPhone X.  They could of course, but equally logical (or more) to not do so.

    Most articles I have read indicate the iPhone X selling very well - especially for a $1000+ phone.  The recent Kantar sales share data shows a huge increase in iPhone (no model breakdowns available) share in China in November.  I wonder what might have driven that...
    netmagecurtis hannahwatto_cobra
  • Reply 15 of 53
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    red oak said:
    I wish AI would keep a running side by side of what he (and other key analysts) predict and what actually happens.   Kuo seems right only about 50% of the time 
    From what I have read from a few Apple watchers, it is believed that MCK either has own sources inside Foxconn, or purchases information sold by insiders.  So he is most accurate regarding future products & h/w features which are assembled by Foxconn.  Outside of that, he is as accurate as any other analyst.
    watto_cobrabaconstangcornchipindieshack
  • Reply 16 of 53
    GG1GG1 Posts: 483member
    brucemc said:
    Misleading headline.  And a bit of confusing logic by MCK.  An Apple decision to not continue selling the existing iPhone X after new models are announced could have nothing to do with how it has sold over the year.  With such an expansive iPhone lineup as they currently have - and likely would continue to have if introducing 3 new models again - it would make perfect sense to NOT sell it.  

    Taking a few of the rumours around, Apple might introduce a single new iPhone LCD model (larger screen), as well as two iPhone X nextgen (5.8" and a larger model).  Such an Apple lineup could have
    - Two NEW iPhone X-like models
    - 1 NEW iPhone LCD (like an iPhone 9)
    - iPhone 8/8+
    - iPhone 7/7+
    - iPhone SE

    Not a lot of room in there to keep the existing iPhone X.  They could of course, but equally logical (or more) to not do so.

    Most articles I have read indicate the iPhone X selling very well - especially for a $1000+ phone.  The recent Kantar sales share data shows a huge increase in iPhone (no model breakdowns available) share in China in November.  I wonder what might have driven that...
    And Chinese New Year is less than a month away.
    badmonk
  • Reply 17 of 53
    tshapitshapi Posts: 372member
    gatorguy said:
    So Apple is going to terminate production of an iPhone after it replaces it with a new model? 

    Holy cow, somebody tell CNBC.
    Daniel, aren't iPhone 7's still in production even tho the 8's and X are out now?

    Anyway AFAIK the editor of the AI article was accurate when stating "If this is the case, it would be the first time that Apple has not retained the previous year's model..." Is there a previous instance you can think of? You know far more about Apple than I do. 
    Actually the article is wrong.  Apple aced the 5. When they revealed the 5s instead they introduced the 5c. My guess has always been, the 5s’s only distinguishing feature was the Touch ID so they axed the 5 to keep people from severely cannablizing its sales.  
    netmagebadmonk
  • Reply 18 of 53
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member
    Tim Cook has warned analysts many times not to draw conclusions from supply chain reports. I guess they’ll never learn. But so many on Apple centric forums like AI are desperate for the iPhone X to fail miserably because of the techie wannabe complaints about the “notch” and Face ID. Every new Apple products brings an avalanche of negative criticisms and predictions of failure from the crowd that resides here and on other sites. The Watch, the iPhone X, the HomePod, all predicted failures by commenters here. So these kinds of reports really do nothing more than stimulate more negativity. And so it goes.
    edited January 2018 watto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 53
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 6,928administrator
    tshapi said:
    gatorguy said:
    So Apple is going to terminate production of an iPhone after it replaces it with a new model? 

    Holy cow, somebody tell CNBC.
    Daniel, aren't iPhone 7's still in production even tho the 8's and X are out now?

    Anyway AFAIK the editor of the AI article was accurate when stating "If this is the case, it would be the first time that Apple has not retained the previous year's model..." Is there a previous instance you can think of? You know far more about Apple than I do. 
    Actually the article is wrong.  Apple aced the 5. When they revealed the 5s instead they introduced the 5c. My guess has always been, the 5s’s only distinguishing feature was the Touch ID so they axed the 5 to keep people from severely cannablizing its sales.  
    They did not. It was still manufactured for 10 months after the introduction of the 5s.
    watto_cobrafastasleepbaconstangasdasdcornchipbadmonk
  • Reply 20 of 53
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    tshapi said:
    gatorguy said:
    So Apple is going to terminate production of an iPhone after it replaces it with a new model? 

    Holy cow, somebody tell CNBC.
    Daniel, aren't iPhone 7's still in production even tho the 8's and X are out now?

    Anyway AFAIK the editor of the AI article was accurate when stating "If this is the case, it would be the first time that Apple has not retained the previous year's model..." Is there a previous instance you can think of? You know far more about Apple than I do. 
    Actually the article is wrong.  Apple aced the 5. When they revealed the 5s instead they introduced the 5c. My guess has always been, the 5s’s only distinguishing feature was the Touch ID so they axed the 5 to keep people from severely cannablizing its sales.  
    And the C was a flop. I still contend had the C been priced like the SE was and Apple offered a few more colors like black it would have been a huge hit.
    airnerdmattinoz
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