iPhone replacement cycles slowing down to four years, pose threat to services, analyst say...

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  • Reply 21 of 166
    mcdavemcdave Posts: 1,140member
    What it does impact is AR, where Apple is stuck in the chicken or the egg scenario.  Apple wants it to be the next “big thing” but there is no “killer app” that makes upgrading attractive.
    This is not a killer app scenario, no killer app will save AR in its current form.  AR is a UI and it’s on the wrong device category.  Until it’s transferred to wearables it just isn’t useful.  For Glasses it’s essential so that’s when it’ll come into its own.




    robbyxracerhomie3radarthekat
  • Reply 22 of 166
    ...in my tax world anything under $500 I can be expensed, vs depreciated (with all the accounting work), and it seems less of a crisis at such a price if a phone is damaged, lost or stolen...   The pricing of new unlocked iPhones seems to have started as low as @ $499  https://everymac.com/systems/apple/iphone/specs/apple-iphone-3g-specs.html and so could this be a trigger point for others for value...?

  • Reply 23 of 166

    DAalseth said:
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    The thing is, for me at least, there's no compelling reason to upgrade. Yes the screen is nicer, but it has reached the point of diminishing return. Yes the cameras are better, but my almost three year old SE still takes great shots. My SE still runs the latest iOS and gets all the features. I look at the iPhone XS and it is lovely, but I keep asking myself what it would give me that my SE doesn't. So far the hole in my bank account doesn't outweigh the improvements. Until the SE stops working, or at least won't do something I want it to do, I have no compelling reason to upgrade.
    The SE's camera is pretty mediocre compared to what comes in the latest iPhones. OSS is amazing for video on my X. Screen real estate is certainly a big plus for me as well, I can't image having to read stuff on a 5" screen anymore.
    Again we are talking diminishing returns, the iPhone XS has pretty close to the perfect camera(within the physical limits of a cell phone), but compared to the SE, its camera is still considered average in todays standards, and in any case they are much better than the cheap digital cameras that people had to buy separately from their phones 10-20 years ago, which were perfectly acceptable for a generation of people.

    Also screen size is subjective, but the XS Max certainly has the big screen covered, while if you want a 4 inch iPhone, there is and won't be a SE successor.
    edited February 8 atomic101watto_cobra
  • Reply 24 of 166
    Well I’m totally happy with my 6S and (1) don’t want to lose my headphone jack, (2) don’t want a bigger phone because it won’t fit in my pocket, (3) don’t need any more performance, and (4) don’t want to pay the price for a newer phone (even though I could happily afford to).

    In fact I am so satisfied with what the 6S offers that I have just bought another one for £299 from John Lewis while I can still buy a brand new one. I have also replaced my wife’s 6S with another one when she dropped it in the water, and my daughter’s 6 with a 6S.

    I know that in time we will have to upgrade when iOS no longer supports the 6s satisfactorily, but for me it will be a sad day.

    At a time when one can buy entirely decent recently introduced Android phones for around the £200 mark I just dont get how Apple thinks they can stay above critical mass with the prices they are expecting people to pay for their new phones.
    baconstangtokyojimuwatto_cobra
  • Reply 25 of 166
    kitatit said:
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    I used to be a 2year upgrader. But Apple prices now have made me choke and hold off the last two years. I was absolutely ready to buy an iPhone X but just can’t stomach the price. OK, here comes the XS, I’ll get that..... what? They raised the price again! Choke again, OK iPhone 11?.... 

    It’s always been a case of you couldn’t give me an Android for free but the thought of switching to Android has actually crossed my mind now. 

    My iPhone 6 is looking like a 5year upgrade cycle. 
    We’ll surely it’s crossed your mind that with an Android you wouldn’t have the option of waiting 5 years between upgrades. The very fact you can wait this long speaks to the reality that iPhone has a much lower total cost of ownership. When your financial circumstances allow, if you upgrade to a new iPhone you can expect to get the same if not more years out of it. 

    Figuring $1,100 for a new iPhone XS Max, that comes out to $18 a month or less over its life cycle.
    StrangeDayspscooter63radarthekatrayboclaire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 26 of 166
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,687member
    I've been a 3 yr upgrade: 4S to 6 to 8. Sales New iPhones might be slowing but 2nd hand iPhones are still selling. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 27 of 166
    jimh2jimh2 Posts: 137member
    jaiello said:
    Could it be that the cellular companies no longer offer a discounted price for the phone?  In the old days I could get a new iPhone every two years for $200.  Now I have to pay full price.  Makes me keep my iPhone longer.  They had to see that coming?   
    There never was a discount...you paid extra for the month every month and had to keep paying. The difference now is you have to pay for the phone up front or finance it free until it is paid off (eg you are under contract). If you own your phone your service is significantly cheaper.

    As an example my plan has 6 phones on it. I am paying $78 for the plan and each phone on the plan is $21.26. All of the phones are owned. If any of them were under contract then instead of $21.26 it would be significantly higher. iPhoneX is $1000 take that and divide it by 24 and you get about $41. If I were to purchase and add an iPhone X to my plan it would be $21.26 + $41 or about $62/month until it is paid off. Or you can pay up front and then pay $21.26/month. 

    Same amount of money being spent just upfront instead of over time though you still can do that. I think some plans allow you to pay less money per month assuming you will trade it in for a new one.
    StrangeDayswatto_cobrafastasleep
  • Reply 28 of 166
    This should be no surprise to anyone.  This should show that Apple need to be more inventive with the introductions of NEW products.  When you come out with new phones every year, the changes in them are going to be smaller.  Spend more time on updating other products you have.  How long have we waited for the real Pro Mac?  Apple needs to be more than a phone company in the future when it comes to hardware.  Apple really needs "The next big thing".
  • Reply 29 of 166
    Tens of millions of iPhone 5/5s/5c/SE users won't upgrade their phones until there's another compact iPhone in the lineup again.
    edited February 8 baconstangtokyojimumazda 3smattinozraybombenz1962
  • Reply 30 of 166
    jimh2jimh2 Posts: 137member
    mcdave said:
    Apple tie services to hardware making sure old machines aren’t  supported with new services/features/document compatibility. We’ve all fallen foul of this at some point (even MS support their document formats on older hardware).

    They’ve been pinged for doing this with iOS (sub-optimal on older devices) and have retracted with iOS12 so I guess they’ll continue to force upgrades with reduced service functionality on older hardware.
    Your remark while true is unfair. Prior to Apple giving away OS X upgrades everyone charged a fee for them and as a result many people chose not to pay. When iOS came along Apple took control of the entire phone and decided to give away all updates. In the case of all other phones the carrier typically took the stock OS and added a layer over top of it (skin) with additional apps, logos, branding and features no one wants. Since it costs money to put out updates when the underlying software changed it made no sense to pay their engineers to work on software updates as no one would pay for them and they wanted their customers to buy a new phone as often as possible. They were designed to be all but obsolete in 2 years.

    As for Apple...they do their best and put out many updates to older phones and continue to do so until it makes no sense to keep spending money on it. They also cannot add new features to old phones if they do not have the processor power or hardware components required by those features. Apple designed their phones to last and to be used for many years and then recycled to other users in the same country or anywhere in the world.

    I'll add that no one is forcing anyone to upgrade their version of iOS. Consider yourself lucky Apple even bothers to support older phones at all.
    StrangeDaysradarthekatdedgeckowatto_cobra
  • Reply 31 of 166
    2old4fun said:
    jaiello said:
    Could it be that the cellular companies no longer offer a discounted price for the phone?  In the old days I could get a new iPhone every two years for $200.  Now I have to pay full price.  Makes me keep my iPhone longer.  They had to see that coming?   
    You never paid $200, you paid full price spread out over 24 months rolled into your plan. You can do the exact same thing now — I put down about 1/3 of my iPhone X and am paying the rest off interest free over 24 months on T-Mobile. It's the exact same thing.
    Not the same thing in some circumstances. If you upgraded every two years, then yes, but if you did not upgrade you continued to make payments on a phone you had already paid for.
    Yes which only reenforces his point — the OP mistakenly believes he was paying less for phones when they were subsidized into carrier plans and the hidden fees. 
    muthuk_vanalingamradarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 32 of 166
    flydogflydog Posts: 277member
    This is news?  I personally don't know anyone who gets a new iPhone every year, and many go longer than two years. 
    baconstangraybotht
  • Reply 33 of 166

    k2kw said:
    jaiello said:
    Could it be that the cellular companies no longer offer a discounted price for the phone?  In the old days I could get a new iPhone every two years for $200.  Now I have to pay full price.  Makes me keep my iPhone longer.  They had to see that coming?   
    You never paid $200, you paid full price spread out over 24 months rolled into your plan. You can do the exact same thing now — I put down about 1/3 of my iPhone X and am paying the rest off interest free over 24 months on T-Mobile. It's the exact same thing.
    The difference is that back then most everyone was going from a flip phone or no cell phone to this new magical thing called an iPhone.   If you have a iPhone 7 or 8 generation the improvements in the X generations are less compelling to savy shoppers on a budget.
    There’s nothing savvy about being on a budget. One can be savvy and also have the budget to upgrade their tools every year. The words mean different things and are not tied to each other. 
    pscooter63watto_cobrafastasleep
  • Reply 34 of 166
    technotechno Posts: 699member
    The phones are too expensive. If Apple comes out with a new phone every year at a $1,000 or more and the advancements are minimal, forget it. I am holding off for a few years.

    Lower the price of the top of the line phone to $799 and I am much more likely to buy every year instead of waiting four years.
  • Reply 35 of 166
    mcdave said:
    Apple tie services to hardware making sure old machines aren’t  supported with new services/features/document compatibility. We’ve all fallen foul of this at some point (even MS support their document formats on older hardware).

    They’ve been pinged for doing this with iOS (sub-optimal on older devices) and have retracted with iOS12 so I guess they’ll continue to force upgrades with reduced service functionality on older hardware.
    Yeah sorry, paranoid nonsense on your part. Mac and iOS devices have longer useful lifespans than their competitors. When things do change, it’s always based on engineering and not waxed-mustache-twirling conspiracy. 
    DAalsethmacpluspluspscooter63radarthekatwatto_cobrafastasleep
  • Reply 36 of 166
    flydogflydog Posts: 277member
    kitatit said:
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    I used to be a 2year upgrader. But Apple prices now have made me choke and hold off the last two years. I was absolutely ready to buy an iPhone X but just can’t stomach the price. OK, here comes the XS, I’ll get that..... what? They raised the price again! Choke again, OK iPhone 11?.... 

    It’s always been a case of you couldn’t give me an Android for free but the thought of switching to Android has actually crossed my mind now. 

    My iPhone 6 is looking like a 5year upgrade cycle. 
    The replacement for a 6 is not an XS, it's an XR, which is around the same price as the 6 when it was released.

    Apple hasn't "raised" any prices, it's released phones at the higher end, but in this age of self entitlement we live in, a $750 phone that is three times more powerful than the $750 phone from two years ago is not good enough.  Everyone has to have the best, and they feel their constitutional rights are being violated if it's not sold for the same price as the phone they bought four years ago. 

    Get real.





    baconstangStrangeDaysmacplusplusradarthekatraybowatto_cobrafastasleepgsrennie
  • Reply 37 of 166
    rfrmac said:
    This should be no surprise to anyone.  This should show that Apple need to be more inventive with the introductions of NEW products.  When you come out with new phones every year, the changes in them are going to be smaller.  Spend more time on updating other products you have.  How long have we waited for the real Pro Mac?  Apple needs to be more than a phone company in the future when it comes to hardware.  Apple really needs "The next big thing".
    Does Coke need a next big thing? Google? Netflix? They all have their established product lines and the world is OK with that. Apple has iPhone, Macs, iPad, etc and each of these is as big or bigger than other entire corporations. They’re fine. They don’t “need” the things most armchair CEOs think they do. 
    pscooter63radarthekatwatto_cobrafastasleep
  • Reply 38 of 166

    techno said:
    The phones are too expensive. If Apple comes out with a new phone every year at a $1,000 or more and the advancements are minimal, forget it. I am holding off for a few years.

    Lower the price of the top of the line phone to $799 and I am much more likely to buy every year instead of waiting four years.
    It is not expected for normal people to upgrade their iPhone every year. Not normal behavior. Incremental, iterative improvement is the name of the game. 
    radarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 39 of 166

    flydog said:
    kitatit said:
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    I used to be a 2year upgrader. But Apple prices now have made me choke and hold off the last two years. I was absolutely ready to buy an iPhone X but just can’t stomach the price. OK, here comes the XS, I’ll get that..... what? They raised the price again! Choke again, OK iPhone 11?.... 

    It’s always been a case of you couldn’t give me an Android for free but the thought of switching to Android has actually crossed my mind now. 

    My iPhone 6 is looking like a 5year upgrade cycle. 
    The replacement for a 6 is not an XS, it's an XR, which is around the same price as the 6 when it was released.

    Apple hasn't "raised" any prices, it's released phones at the higher end, but in this age of self entitlement we live in, a $750 phone that is three times more powerful than the $750 phone from two years ago is not good enough.  Everyone has to have the best, and they feel their constitutional rights are being violated if it's not sold for the same price as the phone they bought four years ago. 

    Get real.
    Nailed it!
    radarthekatraybowatto_cobragsrennie
  • Reply 40 of 166
    FlyDog said:
    The replacement for a 6 is not an XS, it's an XR, which is around the same price as the 6 when it was released.
    Except that a XR is way too big and heavy compared to my 6. I wanted to get one. I really did. But the bulk and mass were just way too much, not to mention having to enter DongleTown if I want to use my headphones. So I've got my 6 for yet another year and Apple lost out on a sale.
    edited February 8 DAalsethpscooter63muthuk_vanalingam
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