iPhone replacement cycles slowing down to four years, pose threat to services, analyst say...

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  • Reply 61 of 166
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 3,773member
    rfrmac said:
    This should be no surprise to anyone.  This should show that Apple need to be more inventive with the introductions of NEW products.  When you come out with new phones every year, the changes in them are going to be smaller.  Spend more time on updating other products you have.  How long have we waited for the real Pro Mac?  Apple needs to be more than a phone company in the future when it comes to hardware.  Apple really needs "The next big thing".
    Does Coke need a next big thing? Google? Netflix? They all have their established product lines and the world is OK with that. Apple has iPhone, Macs, iPad, etc and each of these is as big or bigger than other entire corporations. They’re fine. They don’t “need” the things most armchair CEOs think they do. 
    Coca-Cola is primarily a drinks company. Apple is primarily a phone company.

    Of those drinks, Coke is the star product but there are many, many others that flesh out the business line. Now we have the new coffee coca-cola line.

    Without the derivative coca-cola products and the rest of the drinks lineup the coca-cola company wouldn't be what it is. As such there is little need for a next big thing in the first place but if people's tastes move to something else, it can react easily.

    It is not comparable to the iPhone business which is very restricted and very dependent on 'next big things' to remain competitive. New features are a must, not something that can be kept the same.

    In the Apple case, users are far more price sensitive too.




  • Reply 62 of 166
    My own goal with iPhone purchases is 5 years. I got that out of the 5s before upgrading to the Xs this past fall. Both of those were purchased up front without a subsidy, so that's definitely a factor in the mindset. Of course, it's the voice/data plans that are actually the huge cost for owning a smartphone, not the hardware. 
    cornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 63 of 166
    mattinozmattinoz Posts: 1,061member
    drewys808 said:

    drewys808 said:
    McJobs said:
    Tens of millions of iPhone 5/5s/5c/SE users won't upgrade their phones until there's another compact iPhone in the lineup again.
    Wrong... millions would at least upgrade to 6s and millions of others would upgrade to XR.  There isn’t much of a size increase.  Yes, there are some that want as small a form factor as possible, but it comes with a compromise in screen size as well... this is true for all brands of phones at this time.  
    I think you mean the Xs.  The XR is the same footprint as the 6/7/8 Plus models.
    ... tho you may be thinking that one would prefer to upgrade from 5 to an XS.  I’m not arguing with that.  But I’m assuming these guys with 5/5SE iPhones aren’t willing to spend money for X or XS.  There are many ways to look at it.  But basically the X/XR/XS aren’t really thaaaaat much larger than the older phones.  
    The X and Xs are 140% the size by volume of an iPhone 5/5s/se that is a huge difference. Even the iPhone 6 was 120% the volume of the 5. Both you have add camera bump of and a case as all the current iPhone are too fragile to be used. 

    It isnt at all all about price if it was about price I could pick up a freakishly large second hand iPhone in good condition cheaper than an SE. 
    edited February 9 mbenz1962
  • Reply 64 of 166
    jaiello said:
    Could it be that the cellular companies no longer offer a discounted price for the phone?  In the old days I could get a new iPhone every two years for $200.  Now I have to pay full price.  Makes me keep my iPhone longer.  They had to see that coming?   
    You never paid $200, you paid full price spread out over 24 months rolled into your plan. You can do the exact same thing now — I put down about 1/3 of my iPhone X and am paying the rest off interest free over 24 months on T-Mobile. It's the exact same thing.
    It  IS the same thing.   You are totally correct.   But, it doesn't look that way -- because the carriers hide it. 
    First, they do not list the cost of the phone and instead bury it in the cost of cell plan.  And, if you ask if its there, they deny it.
    Second, when you get a new phone and pay for it yourself, the cost of your plan (if you roll it over) does not go down.

    So, most people believe that they got a new phone every second year for $200 -- because that's what the carriers wanted them to believe.
    StrangeDays
  • Reply 65 of 166
    robbyx said:
    wood1208 said:
    4 years replacement cycle sounds unreasonable. People go at most 2 1/2 to 3 years most.
    I don't think it's unreasonable.  With iOS 12 especially, older hardware is performing very well.  What drives most people to upgrade, in my opinion, is when the overall user experience diminishes to the point that the device becomes unpleasant to use, ie: too slow.  I honestly can't tell the difference in performance between the day I bought my 7 Plus (when it was just released) and today.  In terms of performance, I have no incentive to upgrade.  I'd like a smaller phone without sacrificing screen size, but that isn't reason enough to upgrade.  I'd also like Face ID because I'm sick of how often Touch ID fails.  If anything, that's my biggest pain point and FaceID is the only real lure to upgrade for me.
    Same here with my 6+.
    cornchip
  • Reply 66 of 166
    With Macs, I've consistently bought new, with AppleCare, every three years so I'm covered (I hope) if something goes wrong. With iPhones, the two-year coverage under AppleCare+ appears designed to drive more frequent replacement than I find any reason for. My first iPhone was the CDMA version of the 4 (my family had a Verizon family plan, so I was waiting for an iPhone that would work on their network.... after the initial Apple exclusive deal with AT&T ran out) that I didn't replace until the iPhone 6 came out, about three and a half years later. Four years after that, I bought an XS. Since I retired recently, I don't suspect I'll be decreasing the intervals at which I buy pricey phones. Somehow, I think Apple has very good data on when people replace their phones and is planning accordingly. I thought at the time the X was released that the price was a reaction to lengthening replacement cycles. But I, too, increased my purchases of services during the years when I wasn't buying iPhones.
    cornchipradarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 67 of 166
    One thing I see is that people do not realize how much value a used iPhone has in grey market. Getting $200-$250 for a 6s is really good value for a 3 1/2 yr old device. Why dont more people leverage this?  

    For whatever reasons, it seems iPhone customers want to use the phone until it has zero value and then complain about the price of a new one. Trade-in/selling on Craiglist 1-2 yrs earlier (and considering time-value of money/inflation) you provide yourself better value. Especially, if your carrier or Apple provide zero cost financing. 
    StrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 68 of 166
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 3,773member
    clarker99 said:
    One thing I see is that people do not realize how much value a used iPhone has in grey market. Getting $200-$250 for a 6s is really good value for a 3 1/2 yr old device. Why dont more people leverage this?  

    For whatever reasons, it seems iPhone customers want to use the phone until it has zero value and then complain about the price of a new one. Trade-in/selling on Craiglist 1-2 yrs earlier (and considering time-value of money/inflation) you provide yourself better value. Especially, if your carrier or Apple provide zero cost financing. 
    People complain because prices have gone up. That's reasonable. Zero cost financing still means paying that increased price so the complaint remains valid.

    As a result, some people will hold onto their phones longer. Others will opt to stay on older second hand phones. Both actions impact the sales of the newer, higher priced models.

    Selling your phone to leverage the purchase of a new phone actually happens but clearly not enough to move the needle by any significant amount on sales of the new models.

    It is reasonable to think Apple's current pricing (the price end users actually pay) is simply hitting users' price ceilings and as a result, they aren't biting.

    Couple that with no compelling reason to upgrade and intense competition and you can see and understand (at least to a large degree) why things are like they are.


    kitatit
  • Reply 69 of 166
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    One thing I see is that people do not realize how much value a used iPhone has in grey market. Getting $200-$250 for a 6s is really good value for a 3 1/2 yr old device. Why dont more people leverage this?  

    For whatever reasons, it seems iPhone customers want to use the phone until it has zero value and then complain about the price of a new one. Trade-in/selling on Craiglist 1-2 yrs earlier (and considering time-value of money/inflation) you provide yourself better value. Especially, if your carrier or Apple provide zero cost financing. 
    People complain because prices have gone up. That's reasonable. Zero cost financing still means paying that increased price so the complaint remains valid.

    As a result, some people will hold onto their phones longer. Others will opt to stay on older second hand phones. Both actions impact the sales of the newer, higher priced models.

    Selling your phone to leverage the purchase of a new phone actually happens but clearly not enough to move the needle by any significant amount on sales of the new models.

    It is reasonable to think Apple's current pricing (the price end users actually pay) is simply hitting users' price ceilings and as a result, they aren't biting.

    Couple that with no compelling reason to upgrade and intense competition and you can see and understand (at least to a large degree) why things are like they are.


    I am not even sure why I am answering you but Going from a 5s/SE6/6s to a current gen iPhone is a significant jump in tech. Using your existing device to leverage a better price every 2-3 yrs is just smart.  Or run your device till it dies and pay the going price in 2020 or 2021. Your not saving anything bc a dollar today is not worth a dollar tommorrow and your old phone is worth nothing. Unless you think Apple will cut the price of iPhones down $200-$300... and good chance that is not happening.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 70 of 166
    According to 9to5Mac Apple is now sending push notifications to users who either had an Apple Music subscription and canceled or never signed up after their trial period was over. The notification is offering them another 3 month free trial. Bloomberg had a story last week about the new head of Apple retail and in it they said Apple store employees told to push people with out of warranty devices into a new device over fixing their existing one. And we know stores had signage as you walked in promoting the trade-in promotional deal (which is still the first thing you see on apple.com). I get the sense Apple execs really are panicked about iPhone sales. And also that there’s no new exciting hardware product coming for a while. I just hope these new original content and news/magazine services don’t get released half baked because Apple is in a rush to be offering more things they can charge people for.
    designr
  • Reply 71 of 166
    jaiello said:
    Could it be that the cellular companies no longer offer a discounted price for the phone?  In the old days I could get a new iPhone every two years for $200.  Now I have to pay full price.  Makes me keep my iPhone longer.  They had to see that coming?   
    You never paid $200, you paid full price spread out over 24 months rolled into your plan. You can do the exact same thing now — I put down about 1/3 of my iPhone X and am paying the rest off interest free over 24 months on T-Mobile. It's the exact same thing.
    It  IS the same thing.   You are totally correct.   But, it doesn't look that way -- because the carriers hide it. 
    First, they do not list the cost of the phone and instead bury it in the cost of cell plan.  And, if you ask if its there, they deny it.
    Second, when you get a new phone and pay for it yourself, the cost of your plan (if you roll it over) does not go down.

    So, most people believe that they got a new phone every second year for $200 -- because that's what the carriers wanted them to believe.
    If I go to AT&T or Verizon’s website they show the monthly cost of the phone (and the full MSRP in small print). How is that buried in the cost of the plan? I’m on the iPhone upgrade program so I don’t get my phone through the carriers. Is the monthly installment amount a separate line item on the phone bill or is it just lumped in with the rest of your bill?

    During the days of the so-called subsidy Apple would always show the $199/$299/$399 price on stage during keynotes. Then around iPhone 7 or so they switched to showing the full price (instead of a monthly installment price). So people went from seeing $199 or $299 to $649 or now $749 and $999. I think it was a marketing mistake on Apple’s part considering the keynote really is geared towards the US and most people in the US aren’t buying their phone outright but paying if off in monthly installments.
  • Reply 72 of 166
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 3,773member
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    One thing I see is that people do not realize how much value a used iPhone has in grey market. Getting $200-$250 for a 6s is really good value for a 3 1/2 yr old device. Why dont more people leverage this?  

    For whatever reasons, it seems iPhone customers want to use the phone until it has zero value and then complain about the price of a new one. Trade-in/selling on Craiglist 1-2 yrs earlier (and considering time-value of money/inflation) you provide yourself better value. Especially, if your carrier or Apple provide zero cost financing. 
    People complain because prices have gone up. That's reasonable. Zero cost financing still means paying that increased price so the complaint remains valid.

    As a result, some people will hold onto their phones longer. Others will opt to stay on older second hand phones. Both actions impact the sales of the newer, higher priced models.

    Selling your phone to leverage the purchase of a new phone actually happens but clearly not enough to move the needle by any significant amount on sales of the new models.

    It is reasonable to think Apple's current pricing (the price end users actually pay) is simply hitting users' price ceilings and as a result, they aren't biting.

    Couple that with no compelling reason to upgrade and intense competition and you can see and understand (at least to a large degree) why things are like they are.


    I am not even sure why I am answering you but Going from a 5s/SE6/6s to a current gen iPhone is a significant jump in tech. Using your existing device to leverage a better price every 2-3 yrs is just smart.  Or run your device till it dies and pay the going price in 2020 or 2021. Your not saving anything bc a dollar today is not worth a dollar tommorrow and your old phone is worth nothing. Unless you think Apple will cut the price of iPhones down $200-$300... and good chance that is not happening.
    A significant jump in tech but not compelling and if the price is too high, everything is moot.

    Don't take my word for it. Look at the iPhone market and how it flattened for three years and just contracted - right on its historic blowout quarter.

    You can wish people to do what you say - and some do do that - but it isn't turning things around.

    It not what I think. I believe the market is speaking for itself. Now it is up to Apple to take action if it feels it is necessary to do so.
    edited February 9 kitatit
  • Reply 73 of 166
    How is this bad news for Apple? They have 900 million iPhone users (completely dominating the flagship market with Android a distant second).

    If people upgrade every 4 years then Apple still gets 225 million iPhone sales per year. The fact they aren't hitting 225 million sales tells me the upgrade cycle is closer to 5 years (180 million per year) and not 4 years as claimed.

    So Apple has to settle for selling 180-200 million iPhones per year to those upgrading their 4-5 year old iPhones. And people want to spin this as a negative? Other companies would KILL to have a problem like this.
    StrangeDayscornchipradarthekatraybowatto_cobra
  • Reply 74 of 166
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    One thing I see is that people do not realize how much value a used iPhone has in grey market. Getting $200-$250 for a 6s is really good value for a 3 1/2 yr old device. Why dont more people leverage this?  

    For whatever reasons, it seems iPhone customers want to use the phone until it has zero value and then complain about the price of a new one. Trade-in/selling on Craiglist 1-2 yrs earlier (and considering time-value of money/inflation) you provide yourself better value. Especially, if your carrier or Apple provide zero cost financing. 
    People complain because prices have gone up. That's reasonable. Zero cost financing still means paying that increased price so the complaint remains valid.

    As a result, some people will hold onto their phones longer. Others will opt to stay on older second hand phones. Both actions impact the sales of the newer, higher priced models.

    Selling your phone to leverage the purchase of a new phone actually happens but clearly not enough to move the needle by any significant amount on sales of the new models.

    It is reasonable to think Apple's current pricing (the price end users actually pay) is simply hitting users' price ceilings and as a result, they aren't biting.

    Couple that with no compelling reason to upgrade and intense competition and you can see and understand (at least to a large degree) why things are like they are.


    I am not even sure why I am answering you but Going from a 5s/SE6/6s to a current gen iPhone is a significant jump in tech. Using your existing device to leverage a better price every 2-3 yrs is just smart.  Or run your device till it dies and pay the going price in 2020 or 2021. Your not saving anything bc a dollar today is not worth a dollar tommorrow and your old phone is worth nothing. Unless you think Apple will cut the price of iPhones down $200-$300... and good chance that is not happening.
    A significant jump in tech but not compelling and if the price is too high, everything is moot.

    Don't take my word for it. Look at the iPhone market and how it flattened for three years and just contracted - right on its historic blowout quarter.

    You can wish people to do what you say - and some do do that - but it isn't turning things around.

    It not what I think. I believe the market is speaking for itself. Now it is up to Apple to take action if it feels it is necessary to do so.
    This is not just an Apple thing. All vendors have/continue raising prices. What will Samsung do with the S10 line-up? And the foldable unit? Note 10? If price is your main concern as a smartphone buyer you are gonna pay more across the board for premium devices. Problem being no other vendor has a strong grey market help prop up higher prices.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 75 of 166
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 1,725member
    jungmark said:
    k2kw said:
    rfrmac said:
    This should be no surprise to anyone.  This should show that Apple need to be more inventive with the introductions of NEW products.  When you come out with new phones every year, the changes in them are going to be smaller.  Spend more time on updating other products you have.  How long have we waited for the real Pro Mac?  Apple needs to be more than a phone company in the future when it comes to hardware.  Apple really needs "The next big thing".
    Does Coke need a next big thing? Google? Netflix? They all have their established product lines and the world is OK with that. Apple has iPhone, Macs, iPad, etc and each of these is as big or bigger than other entire corporations. They’re fine. They don’t “need” the things most armchair CEOs think they do. 
    You're comparing Apples to oranges.    Companies that make physical products like cars and electric appliances do need need new products every year.    Netflix relies on subscriptions (but doesn't make much money yet).   Google makes billions from advertising.   Its just the nature of Technology that what's new is worth more than what's old. It's pretty useless to whine about it.   rfrmac is right.   Apple needs "The next big thing"  and they know it.   They've been partially successful with the iPad and watch.    Not so with the HomePod.   That's also why they have flirted with automotive technology via Project Titan.
    Cars get redesigned every 4-5 years, not every year. My 2013 Altima looks like the 2017 Altima with minor changes on the inside.  The iPad and watch have been very successful BTW. 
    And the 8Plus looks the same as the 6Plus but they do model refreshes every year.   iPad and watch are succesful but no iPhone.   
  • Reply 76 of 166
    How is this bad news for Apple? They have 900 million iPhone users (completely dominating the flagship market with Android a distant second).

    If people upgrade every 4 years then Apple still gets 225 million iPhone sales per year. The fact they aren't hitting 225 million sales tells me the upgrade cycle is closer to 5 years (180 million per year) and not 4 years as claimed.

    So Apple has to settle for selling 180-200 million iPhones per year to those upgrading their 4-5 year old iPhones. And people want to spin this as a negative? Other companies would KILL to have a problem like this.
    I think this is it. Smartphones are made too good these days. People hold on to the bitter end.  5years not looking at phone prices and carrier subsidies gone the way of the dodo. 

    The iOS install base grows while new sales decline meaning people are shopping second hand. An analyst not able to understand that fact is hilarious. Services is not a concern. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 77 of 166
    So, in less than 4 years, sales will be back to normal. OMG, that is 16 quarters! How will Apple survive?
    cornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 78 of 166
    I know I'm in that boat. I would have considered an upgrade at 3 years if prices were the same, but they aren't so I'm keeping my 6S+. Also with the news that 5g is around the corner in 2020, I might as well wait 5 years assuming it continues to run smooth.
    This is True for me as well. My iPhone 8 works perfectly, it’s got a great camera, still gets upgrades, and current prices for iPhones are prohibitive with the  exchange rate.  I just got a new battery, giving the phone a new lease on life. 5G is just around the corner. I’m not sure why anybody would buy a new iPhone right now unless you have money to burn. Not that the new iPhones aren’t very nice, but there’s no compelling reason to buy one. Diminishing returns.
    GeorgeBMac
  • Reply 79 of 166
    avon b7 said:
    rfrmac said:
    This should be no surprise to anyone.  This should show that Apple need to be more inventive with the introductions of NEW products.  When you come out with new phones every year, the changes in them are going to be smaller.  Spend more time on updating other products you have.  How long have we waited for the real Pro Mac?  Apple needs to be more than a phone company in the future when it comes to hardware.  Apple really needs "The next big thing".
    Does Coke need a next big thing? Google? Netflix? They all have their established product lines and the world is OK with that. Apple has iPhone, Macs, iPad, etc and each of these is as big or bigger than other entire corporations. They’re fine. They don’t “need” the things most armchair CEOs think they do. 
    Coca-Cola is primarily a drinks company. Apple is primarily a phone company.

    Of those drinks, Coke is the star product but there are many, many others that flesh out the business line. Now we have the new coffee coca-cola line.

    Without the derivative coca-cola products and the rest of the drinks lineup the coca-cola company wouldn't be what it is. As such there is little need for a next big thing in the first place but if people's tastes move to something else, it can react easily.

    It is not comparable to the iPhone business which is very restricted and very dependent on 'next big things' to remain competitive. New features are a must, not something that can be kept the same.

    In the Apple case, users are far more price sensitive too.
    Lotta words, little said.

    Like I said, nobody is clamoring for soda companies, or ad companies, or streaming companies to invent entirely new product lines that are not what they already do. Meanwhile, Apple, a computing company, has multiple product categories, each doing better than other entire corporations. 
    edited February 9 watto_cobra
  • Reply 80 of 166
    McJobs said:
    Tens of millions of iPhone 5/5s/5c/SE users won't upgrade their phones until there's another compact iPhone in the lineup again.
    That’s true too. I really miss my SE. I’m using an 8 right now, and though I like it, it’s too big for my pocket. I’d really prefer a small phone that was all screen.
    cornchipmbenz1962
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