Rosenblatt spews specs for six 'iPhone 12' models while reiterating Sell rating on AAPL sh...

Posted:
in iPhone edited December 2019
Rosenblatt Securities said Monday it believes Apple is working on as many as six different "iPhone 12" models -- including 'Plus' and 'Max' size variants of its 'Pro' series -- but nonetheless reiterated its sell rating on the company's shares, predicting impending share losses in China that won't be helped by a so-called 'iPhone SE 2.'




In a lengthy note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Rosenblatt outlined expectations for the iPhone models it expects to see in 2020. Much like other predictions, Rosenblatt believes there will be an "iPhone SE 2" release early in the year, followed by a batch of iPhone 12 models in the fall.

The "iPhone SE 2," anticipated for a March release, will consist of a 4G smartphone with a 5.1-inch LCD and a single rear camera, the firm says. While Rosenblatt reckons it will be equipped with the current A13 processor, Apple may also side with inclusion of Touch ID over Face ID, a move which is most likely thought enable the iPhone maker to "clean [out] some old component inventory."

Despite the potential popularity for the device, Rosenblatt analyst Jun Zhang doubts the device will be "as attractive as the iPhone 11" to customers due to the iPhone 11's low price, additional promotions for the iPhone in China, and an expectation that China's 4G market "will drop dramatically" early in the year.

For the "iPhone 12" range, Zhang expects there to be a far wider array of models to choose from than Apple has ever offered before, in part due to the introduction of 5G.

The analyst's model predictions include:
  • iPhone 12 4G with a 6.1-inch LCD screen and dual rear cameras

  • iPhone 12 Pro 4G with a 5.4-inch OLED screen and dual rear cameras

  • iPhone 12 Pro 5G with a 5.4-inch OLED display and dual rear cameras

  • iPhone 12 Pro Plus 4G with a 6.1-inch OLED display and a triple rear camera with Time-of-Flight 3D sensing capabilities

  • iPhone 12 Pro Plus 5G using a 6.1-inch OLED screen, triple camera setup, and ToF features

  • iPhone 12 Pro Max 5G with a 6.1-inch OLED panel, the triple camera setup, and ToF.
To further complicate matters, Zhang also suggests the "iPhone 12" Pro 5G could be offered in variants supporting sub-6GHz only or adding mmWave compatibility.

With all that on the table, the analyst makes a point of hedging his bets, advising his clients that while Apple is working on "multiple projects simultaneously" for the next iPhone, he has no "clear idea as to which model and version will launch."

While the bulk of the handsets outlined in Monday's research note point to a September launch, Zhang suggests the "iPhone 12" Pro 5G could launch in the spring of 2021, to "target the middle-end 5G market."

The shift towards 5G iPhones is also prompting some changes in fundamental device design, according to Rosenblatt, with Apple electing for a number of different components entirely in those models over 4G.

For the frame, the 4G models and the sub-6GHz variants could use an alloy frame, Zhang said. Meanwhile, those with mmWave support will potentially employ a steel frame with holes, "in order to improve mmWave signals" which are more sensitive to interference from the local environment and distances.

When it comes to radio density (or RF content) within the new iPhones, the analyst believes the 5G models will require approximately 30% more componentry than those of existing 4G iPhones. For the sub-6GHz models, Broadcom and Murata are expected to see more orders from Apple, while mmWave versions are believed to utilized Qualcomm components as well as some filters from Avago. LCP antenna producers will also see gains in orders over the course of the year for the model.

Wireless charging capabilities are also due for upgrades alongside the next generation of iPhone 5G and 4G devices, Zhang told clients. This is likely "due to 5G consuming battery life faster than 4G." Memory specifications are likely to remain the same as the current generation for the basic models, while iPhone 5G models selling for more than $1,200 could see upgraded DRAM levels, he said.

When it comes to iPhone 5G sales expectations, Rosenblatt is admittedly bearish, estimating builds of 30 million device and sell-throughs of less than 20 million during calendar year 2020. The firm believes Android 5G devices will begin taking market share from Apple in China in early 2020, where 5G deployment will enjoy a several months-long head start on most markets, including all of North America.

For Apple, the costs associated with the launch of 5G devices will also be an obstacle, according to the firm, with the average selling price of iPhone 5G devices expected to fetch $200 more than their 4G equivalents. The lack of a "mid-priced 5G smartphone launching in 2020" means Rosenblatt doesn't expect "a big 5G cycle for Apple in C2020."

As usual, Rosenblatt pessimistically rates Apple as "Sell" with a market low price target of $150, which it believes is "warranted for a company that could face potential problems in the smartphone market."

Apple shares were trading down roughly 0.4% to $269.62 in Monday morning trading on the NASDAQ stock market.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 31
    netmagenetmage Posts: 314member
    With those predictions, I can’t believe RS ever predicted anything Apple correctly. Or even heard of Apple. 
    edited December 2019 flyingdpMacProrazorpitwonkothesaneStrangeDayscornchiptycho_macuserwatto_cobra1983
  • Reply 2 of 31
    $150 for AAPL? Is it April 1 already?

    Do these geniuses actually have any clients?
    flyingdprazorpitStrangeDaysSpamSandwichcornchipnetmagewatto_cobra1983
  • Reply 3 of 31
    uraharaurahara Posts: 585member
    Clowns. 150 USD. LOL. While apple diversifying its business, they talk only about iPhone. Clowns.

    It is very unlikely that all those model will be introduced on one market/country.
    flyingdprazorpitwatto_cobra1983
  • Reply 4 of 31
    Who listens to these analysts and pays for their services?
    watto_cobra1983
  • Reply 5 of 31
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,380member
    If AAPL drops to 150 I'll be buying a lot more!  I suspect it was a typo and he meant 250!
    cornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 31
    jimh2jimh2 Posts: 353member
    So this guy has cast the widest net possible delivering every phone anyone could need at every price point. This is not a prediction based on any knowledge other than pure guesses. Yes there will be a 5G phone. It may or may not support mmWave. There will still be LTE phones. The SE2 might not be popular. This schmuck does not deserved to be published anywhere.

    flyingdpcornchipentropysnetmagewatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 31
    Sometime I am stunned by the low effort speculation coming from analysts these days. I might as well dip my toe into the tech analyst game and see how it goes. There is a severe lack of meaningful insight.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 31
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 6,259administrator
    If you can't see your comment, re-read the commenting guidelines. They are conveniently linked at the bottom of every forum page.
    edited December 2019 watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 31
    Amazing analysis. So many words saying nothing of value. That’s almost an achievement. Almost. 
    cornchipcaladaniannetmagewatto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 31
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 2,543member
    According to this genius, there is no such iPhone 12 Pro Max 6.5" or 6.7" as others have predicted. I skeptically believe that Apple might be considering more than 3 models of iPhone 12 but drooping higher end Pro MAX 6.5"+ is hard to believe.
    edited December 2019 watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 31
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 9,455member
    iOS_Guy80 said:
    Who listens to these analysts and pays for their services?
    Lots of people do. That’s why those who get burned claim it’s a racket. The sad thing is those who lose money cannot sue the analyst they relied on because it’s all opinion, monkeys throwing darts at the wall. I know several former colleagues who decided to manage their own investments claiming they knew what they were doing. All of them lost money. One threw in the towel and moved all of his money into CDs which means he can't even keep up with inflation. That’s why I leave all of that to my FINRA licensed financial advisor associated with a major investment company, Stifel Nicolaus. The management fees are worth it to me.  
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 31
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,901member
    One of the issues that has niggled me about the 12 series rumours was the insistence on a QC X55 modem. For a late September release, I suspected that there would be a newer version available for late 2020 and Apple would be gunning to get that into there next iPhones.

    Then two things happened.

    The recent comments from QC about getting the 5G modem into iPhone ASAP, albeit tuned to Apple's own antenna design.

    Now we have this rumour pointing to a 5G Pro iPhone, at a release point that is way ahead of Apple's normal release cycle.

    A low cost 'SE' device early in the year followed by a Pro level 5G offering in the spring would allow Apple to have something 5G related in the lineup to compete with an ever increasing portfolio of competing 5G phones in the first half of 2020.

    Although only rumours, such a move, if true, would be a tacit admission that 5G has become the overriding priority at Apple. Not without reason, of course.

    We'll see.


  • Reply 13 of 31
    gotwakegotwake Posts: 114member
    AAPL has only gained $60 since they downgraded them back in July. I think we will be just fine.
    danhrazorpitanantksundaramwatto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 31
    badmonkbadmonk Posts: 992member
    It amazes me that Zhang still has a job.  If I was a Rosenblatt client, I would be pissed at his wildly off the mark predictions and the loss of money I would have incurred by following his advice.

    I don’t think he understands Apple in a fundamental way, like how Apple leverages manufacturing scale.  It will be more difficult for upstart companies to challenge Apple in the future, not less.
    razorpitwatto_cobra
  • Reply 15 of 31
    I really hope that Apple does NOT make an iPhone without mmWave. There is too much confusion already about what is 5G and what is not. If the new iphones do it all, it will not add to the confusion.
    godofbiscuitswatto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 31
    Apple won’t ever push the complexity onto the user.  It delayed a 3G phone and an LTE phone...and a 5G phone, for that matter!  Just so customers wouldn’t be required to navigate special-choice hardware.  
    cornchipwatto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 31
    razorpitrazorpit Posts: 1,796member
    Apple won’t ever push the complexity onto the user.  It delayed a 3G phone and an LTE phone...and a 5G phone, for that matter!  Just so customers wouldn’t be required to navigate special-choice hardware.  
    While I can see Apple delaying a rollout, wasn’t the Verizon phone a special SKU when it was released?

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 31
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,426member
    avon b7 said:
    One of the issues that has niggled me about the 12 series rumours was the insistence on a QC X55 modem. For a late September release, I suspected that there would be a newer version available for late 2020 and Apple would be gunning to get that into there next iPhones.

    Then two things happened.

    The recent comments from QC about getting the 5G modem into iPhone ASAP, albeit tuned to Apple's own antenna design.

    Now we have this rumour pointing to a 5G Pro iPhone, at a release point that is way ahead of Apple's normal release cycle.

    A low cost 'SE' device early in the year followed by a Pro level 5G offering in the spring would allow Apple to have something 5G related in the lineup to compete with an ever increasing portfolio of competing 5G phones in the first half of 2020.

    Although only rumours, such a move, if true, would be a tacit admission that 5G has become the overriding priority at Apple. Not without reason, of course.

    We'll see.


    You need to re-read the rumor. It was,,,

    "iPhone SE 2" release early in the year, followed by a batch of iPhone 12 models in the fall." 

    So no "admission" other than the 5G would be available this fall. which has been the expectation since the Qualcomm deal.
    thtwatto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 31
    I know we are in the era of people in power not taking responsibility for their actions, but how much money has this firm lost for people who actually followed their advice? Obviously they have a political POV to so badly and continually miss out on the opportunity of reccmdning a Buy for Apple stock. So weird that they are left off the hook for such things. Sort of like how Corporate CEO's are always regarded as geniuses and want all the credit when a company does well, but it's never, ever, ever their fault when the company fails.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 31
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 5,901member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    One of the issues that has niggled me about the 12 series rumours was the insistence on a QC X55 modem. For a late September release, I suspected that there would be a newer version available for late 2020 and Apple would be gunning to get that into there next iPhones.

    Then two things happened.

    The recent comments from QC about getting the 5G modem into iPhone ASAP, albeit tuned to Apple's own antenna design.

    Now we have this rumour pointing to a 5G Pro iPhone, at a release point that is way ahead of Apple's normal release cycle.

    A low cost 'SE' device early in the year followed by a Pro level 5G offering in the spring would allow Apple to have something 5G related in the lineup to compete with an ever increasing portfolio of competing 5G phones in the first half of 2020.

    Although only rumours, such a move, if true, would be a tacit admission that 5G has become the overriding priority at Apple. Not without reason, of course.

    We'll see.


    You need to re-read the rumor. It was,,,

    "iPhone SE 2" release early in the year, followed by a batch of iPhone 12 models in the fall." 

    So no "admission" other than the 5G would be available this fall. which has been the expectation since the Qualcomm deal.
    Yeah, I read this as 2020:

    "While the bulk of the handsets outlined in Monday's research note point to a September launch, Zhang suggests the "iPhone 12" Pro 5G could launch in the spring of 2021, to "target the middle-end 5G market."
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