Didn't APPL just report on their quarterly earnings? If they intro these boxes as fast a possible, they could see a very helpful boost in the numbers for this quarter. The sooner they intro, the longer the window for users to buy before the end of the quarter. Seems like it could really help their bottom line and maybe take some of that stock holder pressure off Steve's neck. Just a thought.
tsukurite
Right, except that Fred Anderson said that they don't expect to earn more than about 5c per share this quarter. I think the plan is to have them available July 1. That way when they announce the machines at WWDC, and when they announce their crummy performance for this quarter mid-July they can say they expect to earn 50c or $1 next quarter and they already have 10 bizillion PowerMacs preordered. Doing it this way prevents Fred from giving blatently false guidance, and makes for a sudden dramatic-looking turnaround (Steve does so like drama). And really, it will probably be just as good for the stock price if they announce that they earned 5c this quarter and expect to earn 50c next quarter as if they announce that they earned 25c this quarter and expect to earn 50c next quarter.
the rumors said 970 owners would get 10.3 upgrade free.
With Apples up-to-date program, it is almost guarenteed that the 970 PowerMacs would get a free upgrade to 10.3, if 10.3 comes out within 3-4 months of the 970 release.
For example, if you buy DVD Studio Pro 1.5 now, you get a free upgrade to 2.0, which is do out a few months from now.
What is WWDC anyway? Developer Conference. What worries most developers as opposed to users? I dare say it's the operating system. Let me elaborate.
Most software developers, especially "small" ones, $10 shareware-makers and such, don't give a damn about 64-bitness. I doubt I will ever write any 64-bit app. Use likely, write hardly ever. Most coders don't even want to know all the guts of a CPU if they have a compiler to do the worst assembly-level optimizations. Yes, everybody loves fast machines, but developers love compatibility much more. Of course, there are hardware developers and hardcore coders who need to know every gory detail about the CPU and system architecture. They are, well, 1% of us at the very most.
What is really damn interesting to all developers, big or small, young or old, is the OS and API. And they, I believe, will be the main talk at WWDC. There are many things widely anticipated like GUI enhancements, changes in Quartz, new APIs and a DevTools update. While not completed by WWDC, these will be showcased because there are too many people obsessively interested.
This leads me to think that PPC970-based machines could be released well before Panther and even announced before WWDC to further increase the hype. New Macs don't have to wait for Panther, actually.
Oh, and just one more thing. Apple's hardware and software announcements should not be considered as a whole because Apple has to compete with both Wintel and Microsoft, respectively. I mean Apple sells both boxes and OS, while Intel/AMD represent hardware only and M$ software only (mainly).
Right, except that Fred Anderson said that they don't expect to earn more than about 5c per share this quarter. I think the plan is to have them available July 1. That way when they announce the machines at WWDC, and when they announce their crummy performance for this quarter mid-July they can say they expect to earn 50c or $1 next quarter and they already have 10 bizillion PowerMacs preordered. Doing it this way prevents Fred from giving blatently false guidance, and makes for a sudden dramatic-looking turnaround (Steve does so like drama).
I hope that this would not be a major consideration. Generally speaking, a dollar today is worth more than a dollar to tomorrow, in both inflationary terms and opportunity costs. Apple has to also take into account their pro users and their impatience with progress. Also, builing up of inventory is expensive also, that is why inventory is watched closely by Wall Street. Of course, if the systems are not ready, they are not ready.
Fred's guidance would include a conservative estimate of the the Music Store, as well as hardware and software sales. It appears that the Music Store has greatly exceeded expectations. I do not know when Apple counts the books the sale to the quarter, whether it is upon payment or shipment, I believe it is shipment. In the past Apple and other companies have issued revisions in estimates as the quarter progressed do to more information. Depending on how much the Music Store cools over the quarter, Apple may have to issue new guidance anyway.
Not even the most optimistic predictions have them shipping in quantity in the current quarter (which ends at the end of June). But if Steve announces the 970 at WWDC or shortly thereafter, *next* quarter could be outstanding.
My bad. I wasn't aware when the quarter ended. I suppose less than 8 weeks would be just a *tad* tight to get up to speed.
Nice to read some thoughtful analysis of possible business strategy rather than comments that 'Apple just has to release the 970! It rocks!'.
'Course, it is going to eat Intel's breakfast, lunch, and dinner, no joke.
Panther probably won't be officially announced on WWDC - only previewed.
Yes, and my point was that if the 970's are released, and Panther is demoed, the 970s will get a free upgrade. If no mentoined of the 970's happen when Panther is previewed, I woudl bet that the 970s will ship with Panther. So either way a 970 owner will get a "free" copy of Panther.
But how is previewing different form announcing? Apple hasn't set a firm release date for DSP 2.0 yet, just "this summer". They didn't show it off, just put up some info on their website. So if Apple previews Panther, and says it will be out "this summer", and 970's are shipped (or you buy 10.2) I would bet you get the free upgrade to 10.3.
But how is previewing different form announcing? Apple hasn't set a firm release date for DSP 2.0 yet, just "this summer". They didn't show it off, just put up some info on their website. So if Apple previews Panther, and says it will be out "this summer", and 970's are shipped (or you buy 10.2) I would bet you get the free upgrade to 10.3.
When Apple previewed Jaguar at WWDC last year, you didn't get a free upgrade if you bought 10.1 after that day.
And remember that a preview of Panther at WWDC is not a public announcement - you have to pay $1400 to see the keynote.
A third point is that this will be a preview of an unfinished product where features can change before release.
When Apple previewed Jaguar at WWDC last year, you didn't get a free upgrade if you bought 10.1 after that day.
Ok, fair enough I didn't realize that. However, if they preview panther, and then say "it will be out this summer" I would then expect a 10.2 purchaser to get the upgrade free (or for 19.95 or however the up-to-date program works).
Quote:
And remember that a preview of Panther at WWDC is not a public announcement - you have to pay $1400 to see the keynote.
Whats funny is that I live in San Jose, and WWDC used to be there (until this year). The local news staitons would all do reports about it. Mentioning that Apple was holding a conference at the San Jose Convention Center, they would mention what was talked about (if it had any consumer relevance). So if Panther is previewed (and it was in SJ) I would bet to see a short blurb on it.
Quote:
A third point is that this will be a preview of an unfinished product where features can change before release.
We don't know what stage it is at. It could be previewed like DP3 was previewed. It could be previewed like Jag was. Or it could be previewed as a finished product, with a release date in a month.
We don't know what stage it is at. It could be previewed like DP3 was previewed. It could be previewed like Jag was. Or it could be previewed as a finished product, with a release date in a month.
No we don't, but I don't think it will be close to finished.
No we don't, but I don't think it will be close to finished.
I somewhat agree, and don't know how this will impact the release of the 970. From what I understand, the 970 (like any new Apple hardware) will need some modification to the OS to run (like the Powerbooks shipping with 10.2.4, when 10.2.3 was all that was out, or the different builds of 10.1.5 that were available for the new hardware, etc). The 64-bitness wont "come out" until Panther (probably), however the 970 will be a fully functional machine with 10.2.6.
Looking back, 10.1 was out in September. 10.2 was also out in September (wasn't it?) I would bet that 10.3 is out in September as well.
It has gone up to 16.09 from 13.xx last week. AAPL is on its way up again!!!!!!! YEA! More money for me. If it goes up enough I can just sell some and buy a new comp. I got another 100 shares this morning!! I'm so excited!
Over $17 right now, it's been under $15 for months. This is great. The 970 is due shortly, then wow, I might have to pick up a few more shares. Course, I bought when they were at $22
Do you think there's any correlation between the length of time of Moki's silence, and the introduction of new hardware?
Might make for a fun research project...if Moki hasn't posted in 1 week there's a 10% chance of an iBook update, if he hasn't posted in 6 weeks, there's a 40% chance of a PowerBook update...
Comments
Originally posted by keyboardf12
the rumors said 970 owners would get 10.3 upgrade free.
and you know that you can always trust the rumours
Originally posted by tsukurite
Here's a question:
Didn't APPL just report on their quarterly earnings? If they intro these boxes as fast a possible, they could see a very helpful boost in the numbers for this quarter. The sooner they intro, the longer the window for users to buy before the end of the quarter. Seems like it could really help their bottom line and maybe take some of that stock holder pressure off Steve's neck. Just a thought.
tsukurite
Right, except that Fred Anderson said that they don't expect to earn more than about 5c per share this quarter. I think the plan is to have them available July 1. That way when they announce the machines at WWDC, and when they announce their crummy performance for this quarter mid-July they can say they expect to earn 50c or $1 next quarter and they already have 10 bizillion PowerMacs preordered. Doing it this way prevents Fred from giving blatently false guidance, and makes for a sudden dramatic-looking turnaround (Steve does so like drama). And really, it will probably be just as good for the stock price if they announce that they earned 5c this quarter and expect to earn 50c next quarter as if they announce that they earned 25c this quarter and expect to earn 50c next quarter.
Originally posted by keyboardf12
the rumors said 970 owners would get 10.3 upgrade free.
With Apples up-to-date program, it is almost guarenteed that the 970 PowerMacs would get a free upgrade to 10.3, if 10.3 comes out within 3-4 months of the 970 release.
For example, if you buy DVD Studio Pro 1.5 now, you get a free upgrade to 2.0, which is do out a few months from now.
Originally posted by kupan787
For example, if you buy DVD Studio Pro 1.5 now, you get a free upgrade to 2.0, which is do out a few months from now.
That's because DVDSP2.0 is already announced.
Panther probably won't be officially announced on WWDC - only previewed.
Most software developers, especially "small" ones, $10 shareware-makers and such, don't give a damn about 64-bitness. I doubt I will ever write any 64-bit app. Use likely, write hardly ever. Most coders don't even want to know all the guts of a CPU if they have a compiler to do the worst assembly-level optimizations. Yes, everybody loves fast machines, but developers love compatibility much more. Of course, there are hardware developers and hardcore coders who need to know every gory detail about the CPU and system architecture. They are, well, 1% of us at the very most.
What is really damn interesting to all developers, big or small, young or old, is the OS and API. And they, I believe, will be the main talk at WWDC. There are many things widely anticipated like GUI enhancements, changes in Quartz, new APIs and a DevTools update. While not completed by WWDC, these will be showcased because there are too many people obsessively interested.
This leads me to think that PPC970-based machines could be released well before Panther and even announced before WWDC to further increase the hype. New Macs don't have to wait for Panther, actually.
Originally posted by JBL
Right, except that Fred Anderson said that they don't expect to earn more than about 5c per share this quarter. I think the plan is to have them available July 1. That way when they announce the machines at WWDC, and when they announce their crummy performance for this quarter mid-July they can say they expect to earn 50c or $1 next quarter and they already have 10 bizillion PowerMacs preordered. Doing it this way prevents Fred from giving blatently false guidance, and makes for a sudden dramatic-looking turnaround (Steve does so like drama).
I hope that this would not be a major consideration. Generally speaking, a dollar today is worth more than a dollar to tomorrow, in both inflationary terms and opportunity costs. Apple has to also take into account their pro users and their impatience with progress. Also, builing up of inventory is expensive also, that is why inventory is watched closely by Wall Street. Of course, if the systems are not ready, they are not ready.
Fred's guidance would include a conservative estimate of the the Music Store, as well as hardware and software sales. It appears that the Music Store has greatly exceeded expectations. I do not know when Apple counts the books the sale to the quarter, whether it is upon payment or shipment, I believe it is shipment. In the past Apple and other companies have issued revisions in estimates as the quarter progressed do to more information. Depending on how much the Music Store cools over the quarter, Apple may have to issue new guidance anyway.
Originally posted by 3.1416
Not even the most optimistic predictions have them shipping in quantity in the current quarter (which ends at the end of June). But if Steve announces the 970 at WWDC or shortly thereafter, *next* quarter could be outstanding.
My bad. I wasn't aware when the quarter ended. I suppose less than 8 weeks would be just a *tad* tight to get up to speed.
Nice to read some thoughtful analysis of possible business strategy rather than comments that 'Apple just has to release the 970! It rocks!'.
'Course, it is going to eat Intel's breakfast, lunch, and dinner, no joke.
Originally posted by JLL
That's because DVDSP2.0 is already announced.
Panther probably won't be officially announced on WWDC - only previewed.
Yes, and my point was that if the 970's are released, and Panther is demoed, the 970s will get a free upgrade. If no mentoined of the 970's happen when Panther is previewed, I woudl bet that the 970s will ship with Panther. So either way a 970 owner will get a "free" copy of Panther.
But how is previewing different form announcing? Apple hasn't set a firm release date for DSP 2.0 yet, just "this summer". They didn't show it off, just put up some info on their website. So if Apple previews Panther, and says it will be out "this summer", and 970's are shipped (or you buy 10.2) I would bet you get the free upgrade to 10.3.
Originally posted by kupan787
But how is previewing different form announcing? Apple hasn't set a firm release date for DSP 2.0 yet, just "this summer". They didn't show it off, just put up some info on their website. So if Apple previews Panther, and says it will be out "this summer", and 970's are shipped (or you buy 10.2) I would bet you get the free upgrade to 10.3.
When Apple previewed Jaguar at WWDC last year, you didn't get a free upgrade if you bought 10.1 after that day.
And remember that a preview of Panther at WWDC is not a public announcement - you have to pay $1400 to see the keynote.
A third point is that this will be a preview of an unfinished product where features can change before release.
Originally posted by JLL
When Apple previewed Jaguar at WWDC last year, you didn't get a free upgrade if you bought 10.1 after that day.
Ok, fair enough I didn't realize that. However, if they preview panther, and then say "it will be out this summer" I would then expect a 10.2 purchaser to get the upgrade free (or for 19.95 or however the up-to-date program works).
And remember that a preview of Panther at WWDC is not a public announcement - you have to pay $1400 to see the keynote.
Whats funny is that I live in San Jose, and WWDC used to be there (until this year). The local news staitons would all do reports about it. Mentioning that Apple was holding a conference at the San Jose Convention Center, they would mention what was talked about (if it had any consumer relevance). So if Panther is previewed (and it was in SJ) I would bet to see a short blurb on it.
A third point is that this will be a preview of an unfinished product where features can change before release.
We don't know what stage it is at. It could be previewed like DP3 was previewed. It could be previewed like Jag was. Or it could be previewed as a finished product, with a release date in a month.
Originally posted by kupan787
We don't know what stage it is at. It could be previewed like DP3 was previewed. It could be previewed like Jag was. Or it could be previewed as a finished product, with a release date in a month.
No we don't, but I don't think it will be close to finished.
Originally posted by JLL
No we don't, but I don't think it will be close to finished.
I somewhat agree, and don't know how this will impact the release of the 970. From what I understand, the 970 (like any new Apple hardware) will need some modification to the OS to run (like the Powerbooks shipping with 10.2.4, when 10.2.3 was all that was out, or the different builds of 10.1.5 that were available for the new hardware, etc). The 64-bitness wont "come out" until Panther (probably), however the 970 will be a fully functional machine with 10.2.6.
Looking back, 10.1 was out in September. 10.2 was also out in September (wasn't it?) I would bet that 10.3 is out in September as well.
Originally posted by Algol
It has gone up to 16.09 from 13.xx last week. AAPL is on its way up again!!!!!!! YEA! More money for me. If it goes up enough I can just sell some and buy a new comp. I got another 100 shares this morning!! I'm so excited!
Over $17 right now, it's been under $15 for months. This is great. The 970 is due shortly, then wow, I might have to pick up a few more shares. Course, I bought when they were at $22
Originally posted by kupan787
Looking back, 10.1 was out in September. 10.2 was also out in September (wasn't it?) I would bet that 10.3 is out in September as well.
10.2 was released in August.
Perhaps they're having a 11 month upgrade cycle, and that would mean that 10.3 will be released in July
Do you think there's any correlation between the length of time of Moki's silence, and the introduction of new hardware?
Might make for a fun research project...if Moki hasn't posted in 1 week there's a 10% chance of an iBook update, if he hasn't posted in 6 weeks, there's a 40% chance of a PowerBook update...
2. Until that time, the powerbook will have a speed bump and battery boost with the impending arrival of the 7457.
3. The current powermacs, emacs and iMacs will get 7457s and drop their prices by 25%.
4. The 970 Macstation will have a price premium of 10% over the current 7455s.
5. Low volume, R & D and agreements with IBM will keep Apple away from 8 way configurations.
6. The 7457 will survive for another year in the iBook.
if this fact or your opinion?
3. The current powermacs, emacs and iMacs will get 7457s and drop their prices by 25%.
are you saying apple will keep the current g4s around as say a 1299$ machine?
and that the family of powermacs will start at arround 1100$ and go to the highest dual 970?