One year in early Sept. at Meier & Frank ( a NW branch of the May CO. ) it was 90 outside the sun was shinning and they were setting up the Xmas store ( which is manned by primarily by xmas help ). That was 16 years ago. They start preparing for this earlier and earlier every year. So yes.
It is more than showing some signs of improvement. It was doing that 4 months ago. Even 6 months. I agree with you job growth is sluggish and I've never said anything other than that. I said the economy is in a "full blown recovery", which it is. That doesn't mean it's surging (and I never said that either...though some economists and pundits have). I'm not saying it is booming...for that I agree we'd need better job growth. But anyone who's not just arguing semantics and academia knows that job growth is the last piece. It's a trailing indicator. This being said, there IS job growth...unlike before.
Again, I said the economy was in a full blown recovery (meaning in the process of recovering) and I challenge you to show otherwise.
Actually I remember you saying once the economy was surging. Another word for booming. The thing is the job market should be better at this point if we were in a normal recovery.
Actually I remember you saying once the economy was surging. Another word for booming. The thing is the job market should be better at this point if we were in a normal recovery.
Oh really? Where is your backing for that statement? "Should be"? Says who?
I don't recall saying "surging" because I don't think it is. There is a strong recovery happening. And we should distinguish, I am not saying "we ARE recovered". I'm saying we are recovering
Now that's just proof! You need facts! Here's a fact: I tried to order several Christmas gift from LLBean AND THEY ARE OUT OF STOCK ON A BUNCH OF STUFF!!!!! THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE!!!! EITHER LL BEAN UNDERESTIMATED DEMAND, OR MORE PEOPLE FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THEY GOT TO LL BEAN BEFORE ME!!!!!!! Oh, no the enconomy is rebounding!
Now that's just proof! You need facts! Here's a fact: I tried to order several Christmas gift from LLBean AND THEY ARE OUT OF STOCK ON A BUNCH OF STUFF!!!!! THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE!!!! EITHER LL BEAN UNDERESTIMATED DEMAND, OR MORE PEOPLE FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THEY GOT TO LL BEAN BEFORE ME!!!!!!! Oh, no the enconomy is rebounding!
Aries 1B
LOL Classic.
Also, to support jimmac's side: I was in JC Penney the other day, and the clerk said "wow..it's a little slow right now". The FACT proves things are not good! Retail is slow! And even if it is better, it won't last. That's how things are with Republican Presidents, Aries1B...did you forget? After all, data can be manipulated by Bush zealots like myself.
Also, to support jimmac's side: I was in JC Penney the other day, and the clerk said "wow..it's a little slow right now". The FACT proves things are not good! Retail is slow! And even if it is better, it won't last. That's how things are with Republican Presidents, Aries1B...did you forget? After all, data can be manipulated by Bush zealots like myself.
Oh look support from Aries 1B! Too bad I like the movie 2001.
I've gotta agree with SDW, the "drop" in the dollar may well be deliberate.
It might be....if that's possible. But when rates go up I think it will get stronger. Seems to me rates will go up early next year by 50 basis points to start....maybe 75. Any thoughts on that?
Maybe you should read the article bunge...particularly how a weak dollar is helping in many ways.
You always say the same thing. A weak dollar means other countries can buy our goods for less which makes more sales. Of course, no one doubts that. But if that were the ultimate truth in economics why wouldn't the US or any country for that matter always try to keep their currency valued lower than other currencies? Because it's not a long term solution.
You should read the article and realize that if things continue to slide we could be coming to the end of that boost.
Maybe you should read the article bunge...particularly how a weak dollar is helping in many ways.
Yes they have to put some positive spin on this. It's responsable reporting as they don't want to influence the trend by being negative. But they did put this in......
Few are expecting such a doomsday scenario, but with the dollar at a seven-year low against the Swiss Franc, an 11-year low against the British Pound and the euro enjoying an 18 percent gain this year, investors are hoping that the dollar is closer to the bottom than not.
If that reluctance to hold U.S. securities spreads to U.S. Treasuries, interest rates will also rise, potentially jeopardising the economic recovery.
Another fear is that the strengthening global economy will make it harder for the U.S. to fund its current account deficit as investors move into strengthening currencies and cyclical economic regions like Asia.
The U.S. also faces a unique problem in that commodities such as oil and base metals are priced in U.S. dollars.
Steven DeSanctis, small-cap strategist with Prudential Equity Group said his biggest concern is that oil prices can stay high in dollar terms, as people outside the U.S. are effectively paying less.
Economies using the euro will see lower energy costs and a lift in their economies, but in the U.S. -- the world's largest consumer of oil -- companies will see profits erode.
Inflation may also revive as a factor as with imports more expensive, local companies feel freer to boost the prices of their goods in the U.S. market without worrying about a decline in sales, DeSanctis said.
SILVER LINING
In the near term, it is still the silver lining that predominates as the dollar weakness is expected to add about 2 percent, to fourth-quarter earnings for Standard & Poor's 500 companies, according to Ken Perkins, a market analyst at Thomson First Call.
The fear, however, remains that as the effects of historically low interest rates and tax cuts wind down, the dollar's decline will prove more problematic than beneficial.
And that rubicon could be crossed as soon as the second half of 2004, according to Prudential's DeSanctis, "When the economy starts to decelerate."
You always say the same thing. A weak dollar means other countries can buy our goods for less which makes more sales. Of course, no one doubts that. But if that were the ultimate truth in economics why wouldn't the US or any country for that matter always try to keep their currency valued lower than other currencies? Because it's not a long term solution.
You should read the article and realize that if things continue to slide we could be coming to the end of that boost.
Actually Japan and China are rather notorious for attempting to keep their currencies low. Deflating currencies is also a rather infamous means of getting rid of debt.
You always say the same thing. A weak dollar means other countries can buy our goods for less which makes more sales. Of course, no one doubts that. But if that were the ultimate truth in economics why wouldn't the US or any country for that matter always try to keep their currency valued lower than other currencies? Because it's not a long term solution.
You should read the article and realize that if things continue to slide we could be coming to the end of that boost.
I have read it. I read it before you even posted it, FYI. If it does continue to slip it could a be a problem, I agree. For now, it is alarmist to think it's a major issue.
Comments on rates going up soon? It has to happen.....
I have read it. I read it before you even posted it, FYI. If it does continue to slip it could a be a problem, I agree. For now, it is alarmist to think it's a major issue.
Comments on rates going up soon? It has to happen.....
Alarmist? We've just begun to pull out of the worst economic times we've had in years and your not concerned about this? Oh, I forgot according to you they weren't that bad.
Alarmist? We've just begun to pull out of the worst economic times we've had in years and your not concerned about this? Oh, I forgot according to you they weren't that bad.
"Worst economic times in years"? That's a little alarmist in itself. We had a very, very mild recession...one which paled in comparison to the 1992 recession and others. Unemployment maxed at 6.4%, and negative growth was minimal. Tech collapsed, which I'll give you, but that's rebounding as well. If you think things were truly 'that bad", then you're pretty ignorant with all due respect.
Comments
No, Bush is not unbeatable. No single person is ever above defeat, particularly in politics.
Originally posted by rageous
Here's a quick answer to the original question posed:
No, Bush is not unbeatable. No single person is ever above defeat, particularly in politics.
Originally posted by SDW2001
In July and August? September? Hmmmm.....
One year in early Sept. at Meier & Frank ( a NW branch of the May CO. ) it was 90 outside the sun was shinning and they were setting up the Xmas store ( which is manned by primarily by xmas help ). That was 16 years ago. They start preparing for this earlier and earlier every year. So yes.
Originally posted by SDW2001
It is more than showing some signs of improvement. It was doing that 4 months ago. Even 6 months. I agree with you job growth is sluggish and I've never said anything other than that. I said the economy is in a "full blown recovery", which it is. That doesn't mean it's surging (and I never said that either...though some economists and pundits have). I'm not saying it is booming...for that I agree we'd need better job growth. But anyone who's not just arguing semantics and academia knows that job growth is the last piece. It's a trailing indicator. This being said, there IS job growth...unlike before.
Again, I said the economy was in a full blown recovery (meaning in the process of recovering) and I challenge you to show otherwise.
Actually I remember you saying once the economy was surging. Another word for booming. The thing is the job market should be better at this point if we were in a normal recovery.
Originally posted by jimmac
Actually I remember you saying once the economy was surging. Another word for booming. The thing is the job market should be better at this point if we were in a normal recovery.
Oh really? Where is your backing for that statement? "Should be"? Says who?
I don't recall saying "surging" because I don't think it is. There is a strong recovery happening. And we should distinguish, I am not saying "we ARE recovered". I'm saying we are recovering
Originally posted by SDW2001
LOL! I'm the only one saying that!!!??? Are you shitting me?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2003Dec16.html
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Con...l=969048863851
and oh look: CNN Money
http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/19/news...reut/index.htm
Must....resist....name......call...ing
Now that's just proof! You need facts! Here's a fact: I tried to order several Christmas gift from LLBean AND THEY ARE OUT OF STOCK ON A BUNCH OF STUFF!!!!! THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE!!!! EITHER LL BEAN UNDERESTIMATED DEMAND, OR MORE PEOPLE FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THEY GOT TO LL BEAN BEFORE ME!!!!!!! Oh, no the enconomy is rebounding!
Aries 1B
Originally posted by Aries 1B
Now that's just proof! You need facts! Here's a fact: I tried to order several Christmas gift from LLBean AND THEY ARE OUT OF STOCK ON A BUNCH OF STUFF!!!!! THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE!!!! EITHER LL BEAN UNDERESTIMATED DEMAND, OR MORE PEOPLE FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THEY GOT TO LL BEAN BEFORE ME!!!!!!! Oh, no the enconomy is rebounding!
Aries 1B
LOL
Also, to support jimmac's side: I was in JC Penney the other day, and the clerk said "wow..it's a little slow right now". The FACT proves things are not good! Retail is slow! And even if it is better, it won't last. That's how things are with Republican Presidents, Aries1B...did you forget? After all, data can be manipulated by Bush zealots like myself.
Originally posted by SDW2001
LOL
Also, to support jimmac's side: I was in JC Penney the other day, and the clerk said "wow..it's a little slow right now". The FACT proves things are not good! Retail is slow! And even if it is better, it won't last. That's how things are with Republican Presidents, Aries1B...did you forget? After all, data can be manipulated by Bush zealots like myself.
Oh look support from Aries 1B! Too bad I like the movie 2001.
Aries 1B goes shopping because he has a job!
Originally posted by dmz
I've gotta agree with SDW, the "drop" in the dollar may well be deliberate.
It might be....if that's possible. But when rates go up I think it will get stronger. Seems to me rates will go up early next year by 50 basis points to start....maybe 75. Any thoughts on that?
Originally posted by SDW2001
Maybe you should read the article bunge...particularly how a weak dollar is helping in many ways.
You always say the same thing. A weak dollar means other countries can buy our goods for less which makes more sales. Of course, no one doubts that. But if that were the ultimate truth in economics why wouldn't the US or any country for that matter always try to keep their currency valued lower than other currencies? Because it's not a long term solution.
You should read the article and realize that if things continue to slide we could be coming to the end of that boost.
Originally posted by SDW2001
Maybe you should read the article bunge...particularly how a weak dollar is helping in many ways.
Yes they have to put some positive spin on this. It's responsable reporting as they don't want to influence the trend by being negative. But they did put this in......
-----------------------------------------------------------
"DOOMSDAY SCENARIO
Few are expecting such a doomsday scenario, but with the dollar at a seven-year low against the Swiss Franc, an 11-year low against the British Pound and the euro enjoying an 18 percent gain this year, investors are hoping that the dollar is closer to the bottom than not.
If that reluctance to hold U.S. securities spreads to U.S. Treasuries, interest rates will also rise, potentially jeopardising the economic recovery.
Another fear is that the strengthening global economy will make it harder for the U.S. to fund its current account deficit as investors move into strengthening currencies and cyclical economic regions like Asia.
The U.S. also faces a unique problem in that commodities such as oil and base metals are priced in U.S. dollars.
Steven DeSanctis, small-cap strategist with Prudential Equity Group said his biggest concern is that oil prices can stay high in dollar terms, as people outside the U.S. are effectively paying less.
Economies using the euro will see lower energy costs and a lift in their economies, but in the U.S. -- the world's largest consumer of oil -- companies will see profits erode.
Inflation may also revive as a factor as with imports more expensive, local companies feel freer to boost the prices of their goods in the U.S. market without worrying about a decline in sales, DeSanctis said.
SILVER LINING
In the near term, it is still the silver lining that predominates as the dollar weakness is expected to add about 2 percent, to fourth-quarter earnings for Standard & Poor's 500 companies, according to Ken Perkins, a market analyst at Thomson First Call.
The fear, however, remains that as the effects of historically low interest rates and tax cuts wind down, the dollar's decline will prove more problematic than beneficial.
And that rubicon could be crossed as soon as the second half of 2004, according to Prudential's DeSanctis, "When the economy starts to decelerate."
-----------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by bunge
You always say the same thing. A weak dollar means other countries can buy our goods for less which makes more sales. Of course, no one doubts that. But if that were the ultimate truth in economics why wouldn't the US or any country for that matter always try to keep their currency valued lower than other currencies? Because it's not a long term solution.
You should read the article and realize that if things continue to slide we could be coming to the end of that boost.
Actually Japan and China are rather notorious for attempting to keep their currencies low. Deflating currencies is also a rather infamous means of getting rid of debt.
Nick
Originally posted by bunge
You always say the same thing. A weak dollar means other countries can buy our goods for less which makes more sales. Of course, no one doubts that. But if that were the ultimate truth in economics why wouldn't the US or any country for that matter always try to keep their currency valued lower than other currencies? Because it's not a long term solution.
You should read the article and realize that if things continue to slide we could be coming to the end of that boost.
I have read it. I read it before you even posted it, FYI. If it does continue to slip it could a be a problem, I agree. For now, it is alarmist to think it's a major issue.
Comments on rates going up soon? It has to happen.....
Originally posted by SDW2001
I have read it. I read it before you even posted it, FYI. If it does continue to slip it could a be a problem, I agree. For now, it is alarmist to think it's a major issue.
Comments on rates going up soon? It has to happen.....
Alarmist? We've just begun to pull out of the worst economic times we've had in years and your not concerned about this? Oh, I forgot according to you they weren't that bad.
Originally posted by jimmac
Alarmist? We've just begun to pull out of the worst economic times we've had in years and your not concerned about this? Oh, I forgot according to you they weren't that bad.
"Worst economic times in years"? That's a little alarmist in itself. We had a very, very mild recession...one which paled in comparison to the 1992 recession and others. Unemployment maxed at 6.4%, and negative growth was minimal. Tech collapsed, which I'll give you, but that's rebounding as well. If you think things were truly 'that bad", then you're pretty ignorant with all due respect.