1. The iPod is far from winning this race when Creative sold 2 million units last qtr.
2. Coke and Pepsi don't count. They're consumables.
Forget the 125 manufactures. BDA doesn't have an exclusive and those same companies wouldn't have a problem shifting gears and making HD-DVD equipment.
I do think the PS3 will help spur BD movies. I also think think that we'll see an Xbox 360 HD with a HD-DVD player. Steve Ballmer all but blurted it out when pressed.
I like Sony and have bought a lot of Sony stuff but I'm just a realist and there's nothing so fantastical about Blu-Ray that leads me to believe the race isn't a dead heat right now. Nothing.
Good news on the replication. Now if Sony would just target some discs and player pricing I'd feel better.
Interesting. This is the chief reason why I don't hype Blu-Ray's larger size as a significant benefit. By the time both formats are in the market for sometime there could potentially be a new optical standard like HVD capturing the interest of computer storage fans.
Yes it sounds like I hate Sony but I don't. I hate the hyperbole surrounding Blu-Ray. From day 1 geeks looked and said "more storage, I want Blu-Ray" without really looking at the context of what movie distribution requires. Meaning storage is a non-issue for consumers. They walk into a store ...see the movie for sale and purchase it. They don't walk up to the Best Buy cashier and ask if the DVD holds 5GBs or 8.5GB. They don't care as long as they get to watch the movie.
I don't think a winner will be evident for 5 years...anyone saying the war is over before it has started is practicing tomfoolery.
Whoever delivers feature length HD films on one disc, with features, recording, TITLES, and a GREAT PRICE, will win. This is a content delivery medium first, so that's all that really matters.
However... Sony, between their movie IP, and the brand presence of PS3, may be able to push Blueray into the prominent position. They will have to fight their tendency to make their solutions proprietary and expensive.
Forget the 125 manufactures. BDA doesn't have an exclusive and those same companies wouldn't have a problem shifting gears and making HD-DVD equipment.
I like Sony and have bought a lot of Sony stuff but I'm just a realist and there's nothing so fantastical about Blu-Ray that leads me to believe the race isn't a dead heat right now. Nothing.
Yeah, just like Apple would have no problem switching to Intel. All the time, money and marketing effort of pretty much every major electronics company would be lost. No problem. Sure they could switch and survive but why should they? They already have a better format with Blu-Ray.
Whoever delivers feature length HD films on one disc, with features, recording, TITLES, and a GREAT PRICE, will win. This is a content delivery medium first, so that's all that really matters.
However... Sony, between their movie IP, and the brand presence of PS3, may be able to push Blueray into the prominent position. They will have to fight their tendency to make their solutions proprietary and expensive.
No guaranteed winner yet...
Blu-Ray will be a single layer disk and meet that criteria, HD-DVD will not. Blu-Ray drives, disks and mastering equipment will all be driven to low prices by the quantities required for the PS3. HD-DVD will be low-volume, never get to low prices, and die.
Sony has developed equipment to streamline the disc mastering process by reducing the eleven steps currently used in DVD mastering to five for BD-ROM. This mastering process, Phase Transition Mastering (PTM), requires as little as one-fifth of the space required for DVD mastering and the equipment can be configured to allow mastering of both BD-ROM and DVD-ROM on a single system.
Looks like movies on Blu-Ray may cost about the same as they do on DVD.
In addition to ramping up for mass production of the 50GB discs that will be available at format launch, Blu-ray has begun work to ensure that the format continues to grow as high-definition technology evolves. Blu-ray companies have successfully demonstrated 200GB discs in a laboratory environment and are poised to further expand the format?s capacity as needs dictate.
Yes, HD technology will evolve so it's good to have a format that has the storage capacity for it. Someone's using common sense. Nice to be able to fit current HD tv series on a single disc too.
Take the press release with a grain of salt. I'm more into actions that words on a "paper"
I'm hoping for low cost HD from both groups. Hell in the end my allegiance is to my own finances.
200GB discs. We'll never need them in enough quantity to make them affordable. Studios will just ship 4 50GB discs. DVD-18 exist but studios don't use them. They just toss in two DVD-9 because it's cheaper because of volume manufacturing.
Both formats have the bandwidth to handle the future. I'm not particularly worried about space requirements for the future. We'll have 1080p from the start. AVC has a subset of extensions coming that will allow it to support compressing 4:4:4 video up to 12bit per channel. I'm guessing you might be able to squeeze that in under 36Mbps throughput but I doubt the codecs of today can handle this.
I get the distinct feeling that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be rather short lived. I think they'll poop out in about 10 years.
I really think this whole contest will come down to one thing:
The PS3 uses Blu-Ray. Sony wins.
Seriously, given how many units the PS3 is likely to sell, Blu-Ray will catch up with the prior-shipping HD-DVD units quick. And, personally, I think they'll surpass them. After all, when the family is hesitating about yet another movie format, but they just bought their kids a PS3... hey, look, it supports these new BD-DVDs! Why buy another video player?
Why should they poop out? They may actually be very long lived! Imagine if DVD discs had been available at the inception of color TV?
What does the consumer demand?
Cost
Holds a feature length title plus features
Uses the maximum quality available through the
Allows hassle free recording
If these mediums can deliver the full 1080P available in HDTV, then they stand a very good chance of lasting as long as HDTV does.
The logistical issues surrounding the jump from HDTV to its eventual successor guarantee that HDTV will be it for at least a couple of decades. Computing and theatre will move well beyond, but it won't be practical for television systems.
Winning now, early, might mean a very long a profitable future as the HDTV media of choice.
What I mean by poop out is the influence that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will have on the public at large.
Netflix has been in business what 4 years? Look at the changes Blockbuster Video has had to make dropping late fees and going to a mailing system. Great ideas take ahold swiftly and once they become entrenched people don't want to go back.
Verizon FIOS is 50Mbps and rapidly being installed in areas across the country. Korea has 100Mbit connections to the home. It's easy to put two and two together and see that in another decade IP/TV will begin to push the "antiquated" discs that we've used for 25+ yrs.
The consumer has more choices and avenues for entertainment and I only see that as proliferating. We'll be ala carte soon in programming choices.
Neither of these formats stand a snowballs chance in hell of being fruitful for 20yrs. Again they'll be lucky to hit 10. There's just too many players that have enough influence with tech. You have China rapidly becoming "the" economy, you have the Korean equivalent to Sony(Samsung) and Taiwan and more. We are accelerating in our IP and access. Scales that we used for VHS and DVD as far as penetration and sales don't apply.
There's still something to be said for owning the media itself. People like the idea too much.
Now if you mean that streaming will replace media, yes. The rental business is in trouble. But for those who want to own films, they will not be contented to own access to media on a server, they want to put something on a shelf in their den. For that purpose, a DVD replacement has remarkable potential for longevity with consumers.
You have to appreciate that HDTV will not change for a good long time once it hits 1080P. That means that the technical requirements for the media won't change. It is a perfect marriage. The disc can deliver the maximum performance available in a basically static medium. No change in HDTV, no reason to change discs. They proliferate because people like buying movies, they get really cheap to produce as time passes.
You have to imagine what it might have been like to have DVD's at the dawn of color TV. Where would you go from there?
Again, I freely accept that delivery (for rental and subscription) will change substantially. But the predefined specifications of HDTV mean that you can define a medium today that will deliver essentially the same quality and performance 10-15-20 years from now. No matter what sorts of tech we have, HDTV will be the same 1920x1080@24P/30P/60i that has been defined. Redefining it will take years, and that, only after a decision has been made to update it, which will itself take years.
However the paradigm shift for music is driven by the desire to have it portable.
The sales of DVD are currently driven by the desire to own it outright, to make it permanent.
Portable video? Lotsa problems with that. Can't work-out, ride, walk, drive, talk and watch a film at the same time, no matter what technology will undoubtedly allow.
Blu-Ray already won, anyone who thinks otherwise is just wrong. I work at a hollywood studio, and frankly nobody cares about warner bros and there stubborn choice of HD-DVDs.
Everyone else is going to use blu-ray, include camps that perviously were not.
How many of you have actually used both players? I have both prototypes sitting in the office next to me, both from the major players campaigning for the studios business. Blu-Ray is fine, any concerns i had about scratching are nill now, they are study, and continue to play when scratched.
blu-ray is backwards compatible with all media (i don't care what your facts are), I can stick any freaking disc in the drive. HD-DVD allowed this too, but it's less, space, and nobody cares about the media price. If you think sony and large companies are going to let HD-DVD win by blu-ray having higher prices your wrong. Most of the big blu-ray companies haven't released prices because they're just going to make them lower than an HD-DVD player, or disc on the market at time of release.
Skip the HD-DVD, it's lacking, not expandable and we'll have to have another format a year down the road...
Blu-Ray will win, and I will be anyone here $1000 on it ;-)
Obviated? Damn. Guess I shouldn't have bought that new NIN album on CD earlier this month, or the new Gorillaz album + LE DVD this week.
nice choices. No I'm not saying there won't be a need for discs but over time convenience will rule out.
Quote:
Blu-Ray already won, anyone who thinks otherwise is just wrong. I work at a hollywood studio, and frankly nobody cares about warner bros and there stubborn choice of HD-DVDs.
Well I take it you don't work for WB. However you're forgetting Paramount, Universal and New Line.
Quote:
Blu-Ray is fine, any concerns i had about scratching are nill now, they are study, and continue to play when scratched.
Scratching isn't the main issue with Blu-Ray. Cost is so unless you work for a replication facility you can only give us your opinion from a content providers side.
Quote:
blu-ray is backwards compatible with all media (i don't care what your facts are), I can stick any freaking disc in the drive. HD-DVD allowed this too, but it's less, space, and nobody cares about the media price
It's obvious that you don't care about the facts. Just like all Blu-Ray fanboys your only retort is to bleat about how much space Blu-Ray has. If you think people don't care about media price then you're not listening to your customer base.
Quote:
Most of the big blu-ray companies haven't released prices because they're just going to make them lower than an HD-DVD player, or disc on the market at time of release.
Then they should do it now. Their silence is deafening.
Quote:
Skip the HD-DVD, it's lacking, not expandable and we'll have to have another format a year down the road..
45GB discs will cover %99 of movies out there. HD-DVD supports Dolby and DTS nextgen formats. There is no need for expandability. These formats are for movie delivery. Let us not fall into the thought that the winner automatically will parlay this into a successful computer product. There are competitors on the horizon that could very well threaten that possibility.
Many think I'm anti-Blu-Ray. I'm not..I'm just weary of banal reasoning and excuses. I am wholly unimpressed with the knowlede of most Blu-Ray fans, who are generally limited to discussing capacity and nothing else. Let the market decide the overall victor. Neither will usurp DVD anytime soon.
You don't seem to have a problem with HD-DVD so by your own reasoning you must be an HD-DVD fanboy then, right? :P Sony and Matsushita are working their asses off to make the Blu-Ray production lines cheaper and more efficient. They are at a point now where it will cost roughly the same to produce a BD as it would a DVD. They will be price competitive with HD-DVD both in terms of hardware and software. Virtually every major manufacturer is coming out with Blu-Ray players and recorders save for Toshiba. Most of the manufacturers backing HD-DVD are unknowns from China and for the most part the crap players you find at Walmart are not something you would want to deal with anyway. I've got a couple of them and half the movies I rent fail to play. They are buggy as hell and will be thrown out of a window some time soon. I wouldn't want a $50 HD-DVD player from them and I'm betting neither would you. Yes, domestically China is a growing market but they are likely to go with their own format and skip HD-DVD and Blu-Ray alltogether. Are CDs and DVDs used only for music and movies? No. Last time I checked they are also widely used for storage. Why would BD be any different? It wouldn't and in fact recording video and data has been a significant part of the Blu-Ray spec from day one. That's a lot more than can be said of the HD-DVD spec. Yeah, I wish they would get Blu-Ray to market by Christmas to stave off any HD-DVD foothold and subsequent DivX-like mess for consumers but it's better to have a mature product than to rush it to market. The HD-DVD camp knows this but rushing their product to market is the only slim chance in hell they have. Toshiba essentially stated today that market confusion is their best bet. It is a clear act of desperation. It would be best to recommend to the average consumer that they wait until both formats have been introduced before making a decision. However, as for myself and others here who want the superior product, Blu-Ray is the clear winner and I will back that up with my pocketbook.
I think what's amazing about this article is that there is literally no information. We're told by 3 companies that they expect production costs to be the same as DVD yet they explain nothing. I'm just supposed to take their word for it right? Not.
I wouldn't call myself a fanboy of HD-DVD I just grew sick of the "Blu-Ray is teh win" crowd. Reminds me of annoying AMD fans. I wanted no part in that circus act.
I think the important thing to realize is that neither format has many exclusives. Thus I wouldn't be surprised to see BD discs from Paramount or Universal or New Line if they felt money could be made. Samsung has already said they'd look at both formats and so has LG electronics. If there's money to be made some company will fulfill the demand.
I think the decision for consumer will be based on which studios have the most of their favorite movies. If you like Columbia movies then Blu-Ray is your format initially. If you like Universal movies then HD-DVD.
The difference between the formats isn't enough worry about all that much. People don't care about space as long as they can watch their full movie.
I'm excited that HD prerecorded content is coming. It could have been smoother but then again at least we're getting it rather quickly.
Comments
http://www.blu-raydisc.com/assets/do...0525-12993.pdf
More promising news that Blu-Ray will not be "oh so much more expensive" than HD-DVD.
2. Coke and Pepsi don't count. They're consumables.
Forget the 125 manufactures. BDA doesn't have an exclusive and those same companies wouldn't have a problem shifting gears and making HD-DVD equipment.
I do think the PS3 will help spur BD movies. I also think think that we'll see an Xbox 360 HD with a HD-DVD player. Steve Ballmer all but blurted it out when pressed.
I like Sony and have bought a lot of Sony stuff but I'm just a realist and there's nothing so fantastical about Blu-Ray that leads me to believe the race isn't a dead heat right now. Nothing.
Good news on the replication. Now if Sony would just target some discs and player pricing I'd feel better.
And so, Iomega has decided to join the fray.
Originally posted by Frank777
The battle for the next-gen DVD is really a war of press releases right now.
And so, Iomega has decided to join the fray.
Interesting. This is the chief reason why I don't hype Blu-Ray's larger size as a significant benefit. By the time both formats are in the market for sometime there could potentially be a new optical standard like HVD capturing the interest of computer storage fans.
Yes it sounds like I hate Sony but I don't. I hate the hyperbole surrounding Blu-Ray. From day 1 geeks looked and said "more storage, I want Blu-Ray" without really looking at the context of what movie distribution requires. Meaning storage is a non-issue for consumers. They walk into a store ...see the movie for sale and purchase it. They don't walk up to the Best Buy cashier and ask if the DVD holds 5GBs or 8.5GB. They don't care as long as they get to watch the movie.
I don't think a winner will be evident for 5 years...anyone saying the war is over before it has started is practicing tomfoolery.
However... Sony, between their movie IP, and the brand presence of PS3, may be able to push Blueray into the prominent position. They will have to fight their tendency to make their solutions proprietary and expensive.
No guaranteed winner yet...
Originally posted by hmurchison
Forget the 125 manufactures. BDA doesn't have an exclusive and those same companies wouldn't have a problem shifting gears and making HD-DVD equipment.
I like Sony and have bought a lot of Sony stuff but I'm just a realist and there's nothing so fantastical about Blu-Ray that leads me to believe the race isn't a dead heat right now. Nothing.
Yeah, just like Apple would have no problem switching to Intel. All the time, money and marketing effort of pretty much every major electronics company would be lost. No problem. Sure they could switch and survive but why should they? They already have a better format with Blu-Ray.
Originally posted by Matsu
Whoever delivers feature length HD films on one disc, with features, recording, TITLES, and a GREAT PRICE, will win. This is a content delivery medium first, so that's all that really matters.
However... Sony, between their movie IP, and the brand presence of PS3, may be able to push Blueray into the prominent position. They will have to fight their tendency to make their solutions proprietary and expensive.
No guaranteed winner yet...
Blu-Ray will be a single layer disk and meet that criteria, HD-DVD will not. Blu-Ray drives, disks and mastering equipment will all be driven to low prices by the quantities required for the PS3. HD-DVD will be low-volume, never get to low prices, and die.
Looks like movies on Blu-Ray may cost about the same as they do on DVD.
In addition to ramping up for mass production of the 50GB discs that will be available at format launch, Blu-ray has begun work to ensure that the format continues to grow as high-definition technology evolves. Blu-ray companies have successfully demonstrated 200GB discs in a laboratory environment and are poised to further expand the format?s capacity as needs dictate.
Yes, HD technology will evolve so it's good to have a format that has the storage capacity for it. Someone's using common sense. Nice to be able to fit current HD tv series on a single disc too.
Take the press release with a grain of salt. I'm more into actions that words on a "paper"
I'm hoping for low cost HD from both groups. Hell in the end my allegiance is to my own finances.
200GB discs. We'll never need them in enough quantity to make them affordable. Studios will just ship 4 50GB discs. DVD-18 exist but studios don't use them. They just toss in two DVD-9 because it's cheaper because of volume manufacturing.
Both formats have the bandwidth to handle the future. I'm not particularly worried about space requirements for the future. We'll have 1080p from the start. AVC has a subset of extensions coming that will allow it to support compressing 4:4:4 video up to 12bit per channel. I'm guessing you might be able to squeeze that in under 36Mbps throughput but I doubt the codecs of today can handle this.
I get the distinct feeling that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be rather short lived. I think they'll poop out in about 10 years.
The PS3 uses Blu-Ray. Sony wins.
Seriously, given how many units the PS3 is likely to sell, Blu-Ray will catch up with the prior-shipping HD-DVD units quick. And, personally, I think they'll surpass them. After all, when the family is hesitating about yet another movie format, but they just bought their kids a PS3... hey, look, it supports these new BD-DVDs! Why buy another video player?
What does the consumer demand?
Cost
Holds a feature length title plus features
Uses the maximum quality available through the
Allows hassle free recording
If these mediums can deliver the full 1080P available in HDTV, then they stand a very good chance of lasting as long as HDTV does.
The logistical issues surrounding the jump from HDTV to its eventual successor guarantee that HDTV will be it for at least a couple of decades. Computing and theatre will move well beyond, but it won't be practical for television systems.
Winning now, early, might mean a very long a profitable future as the HDTV media of choice.
Netflix has been in business what 4 years? Look at the changes Blockbuster Video has had to make dropping late fees and going to a mailing system. Great ideas take ahold swiftly and once they become entrenched people don't want to go back.
Verizon FIOS is 50Mbps and rapidly being installed in areas across the country. Korea has 100Mbit connections to the home. It's easy to put two and two together and see that in another decade IP/TV will begin to push the "antiquated" discs that we've used for 25+ yrs.
The consumer has more choices and avenues for entertainment and I only see that as proliferating. We'll be ala carte soon in programming choices.
Neither of these formats stand a snowballs chance in hell of being fruitful for 20yrs. Again they'll be lucky to hit 10. There's just too many players that have enough influence with tech. You have China rapidly becoming "the" economy, you have the Korean equivalent to Sony(Samsung) and Taiwan and more. We are accelerating in our IP and access. Scales that we used for VHS and DVD as far as penetration and sales don't apply.
Now if you mean that streaming will replace media, yes. The rental business is in trouble. But for those who want to own films, they will not be contented to own access to media on a server, they want to put something on a shelf in their den. For that purpose, a DVD replacement has remarkable potential for longevity with consumers.
You have to appreciate that HDTV will not change for a good long time once it hits 1080P. That means that the technical requirements for the media won't change. It is a perfect marriage. The disc can deliver the maximum performance available in a basically static medium. No change in HDTV, no reason to change discs. They proliferate because people like buying movies, they get really cheap to produce as time passes.
You have to imagine what it might have been like to have DVD's at the dawn of color TV. Where would you go from there?
Again, I freely accept that delivery (for rental and subscription) will change substantially. But the predefined specifications of HDTV mean that you can define a medium today that will deliver essentially the same quality and performance 10-15-20 years from now. No matter what sorts of tech we have, HDTV will be the same 1920x1080@24P/30P/60i that has been defined. Redefining it will take years, and that, only after a decision has been made to update it, which will itself take years.
Just as MP3/AAC/WMA etc had obviated peoples desire to have a physical CD the same benefit will extend to video files.
Couple that with the proliferation of home networks and IP/TV and I think we will see a multitude of ways to access and store our media.
I agree that the HD spec won't change for a while. I just think we'll be getting it from more sources than we know of today.
The sales of DVD are currently driven by the desire to own it outright, to make it permanent.
Portable video? Lotsa problems with that. Can't work-out, ride, walk, drive, talk and watch a film at the same time, no matter what technology will undoubtedly allow.
Everyone else is going to use blu-ray, include camps that perviously were not.
How many of you have actually used both players? I have both prototypes sitting in the office next to me, both from the major players campaigning for the studios business. Blu-Ray is fine, any concerns i had about scratching are nill now, they are study, and continue to play when scratched.
blu-ray is backwards compatible with all media (i don't care what your facts are), I can stick any freaking disc in the drive. HD-DVD allowed this too, but it's less, space, and nobody cares about the media price. If you think sony and large companies are going to let HD-DVD win by blu-ray having higher prices your wrong. Most of the big blu-ray companies haven't released prices because they're just going to make them lower than an HD-DVD player, or disc on the market at time of release.
Skip the HD-DVD, it's lacking, not expandable and we'll have to have another format a year down the road...
Blu-Ray will win, and I will be anyone here $1000 on it ;-)
Originally posted by hmurchison
I think our preference for having physical media is going to wane.
Just as MP3/AAC/WMA etc had obviated peoples desire to have a physical CD the same benefit will extend to video files.
Obviated? Damn. Guess I shouldn't have bought that new NIN album on CD earlier this month, or the new Gorillaz album + LE DVD this week.
Originally posted by Kesh
Obviated? Damn. Guess I shouldn't have bought that new NIN album on CD earlier this month, or the new Gorillaz album + LE DVD this week.
Blu-Ray already won, anyone who thinks otherwise is just wrong. I work at a hollywood studio, and frankly nobody cares about warner bros and there stubborn choice of HD-DVDs.
Well I take it you don't work for WB. However you're forgetting Paramount, Universal and New Line.
Blu-Ray is fine, any concerns i had about scratching are nill now, they are study, and continue to play when scratched.
Scratching isn't the main issue with Blu-Ray. Cost is so unless you work for a replication facility you can only give us your opinion from a content providers side.
blu-ray is backwards compatible with all media (i don't care what your facts are), I can stick any freaking disc in the drive. HD-DVD allowed this too, but it's less, space, and nobody cares about the media price
It's obvious that you don't care about the facts. Just like all Blu-Ray fanboys your only retort is to bleat about how much space Blu-Ray has. If you think people don't care about media price then you're not listening to your customer base.
Most of the big blu-ray companies haven't released prices because they're just going to make them lower than an HD-DVD player, or disc on the market at time of release.
Then they should do it now. Their silence is deafening.
Skip the HD-DVD, it's lacking, not expandable and we'll have to have another format a year down the road..
45GB discs will cover %99 of movies out there. HD-DVD supports Dolby and DTS nextgen formats. There is no need for expandability. These formats are for movie delivery. Let us not fall into the thought that the winner automatically will parlay this into a successful computer product. There are competitors on the horizon that could very well threaten that possibility.
Many think I'm anti-Blu-Ray. I'm not..I'm just weary of banal reasoning and excuses. I am wholly unimpressed with the knowlede of most Blu-Ray fans, who are generally limited to discussing capacity and nothing else. Let the market decide the overall victor. Neither will usurp DVD anytime soon.
I think what's amazing about this article is that there is literally no information. We're told by 3 companies that they expect production costs to be the same as DVD yet they explain nothing. I'm just supposed to take their word for it right? Not.
I wouldn't call myself a fanboy of HD-DVD I just grew sick of the "Blu-Ray is teh win" crowd. Reminds me of annoying AMD fans. I wanted no part in that circus act.
I think the important thing to realize is that neither format has many exclusives. Thus I wouldn't be surprised to see BD discs from Paramount or Universal or New Line if they felt money could be made. Samsung has already said they'd look at both formats and so has LG electronics. If there's money to be made some company will fulfill the demand.
HD-DVD recording specs have been there since day 1
I think the decision for consumer will be based on which studios have the most of their favorite movies. If you like Columbia movies then Blu-Ray is your format initially. If you like Universal movies then HD-DVD.
The difference between the formats isn't enough worry about all that much. People don't care about space as long as they can watch their full movie.
I'm excited that HD prerecorded content is coming. It could have been smoother but then again at least we're getting it rather quickly.