That's 3 1/2 months ago. When WWDC rolls around that will have been 4 months. According to the MacRumors Buyer's Guide, the average update time is 6 months. But even that includes adding models, rather than just updating existing models. It's more like 8 months - the last update took 9 months. It simply doesn't make economic sense to replace a computer after only 4 months or so.
Just because they announce something at WWDC doesn't mean it will ship immediately. Remember w hen they announced the g5 at wwdc 2003? Took 2-3 months later to really ship out.
Either way, there has been a time when the powerbooks were updated in 3 months...... the powermacs were updated in 2 months (powermac 1.42->g5 2.0)
Just because they announce something at WWDC doesn't mean it will ship immediately. Remember w hen they announced the g5 at wwdc 2003? Took 2-3 months later to really ship out.
Either way, there has been a time when the powerbooks were updated in 3 months...... the powermacs were updated in 2 months (powermac 1.42->g5 2.0)
Anything can happen if the market demands it.
Anything is possible, and I'd love to see it, as I'd probably buy one. But it's still highly unlikely to follow the identical pattern to the PowerMacs in 2003, and it's inaccurate to state, as several people in this thread have, that the PowerBook timeline suggests an imminent update.
Anything is possible, and I'd love to see it, as I'd probably buy one. But it's still highly unlikely to follow the identical pattern to the PowerMacs in 2003, and it's inaccurate to state, as several people in this thread have, that the PowerBook timeline suggests an imminent update.
Thanks for the chart Rhumgod. I think what it shows is that there is no pattern. It suggests only that one can reasonably expect some update (minor or major) every 6-9 months.
What will irk me if Apple doesn't produce a new PB closer to the 6 month end of the range is that the PB and iBook are lagging behind other aspects of Apple's hardware and software offerings. With the PB it seems to be an HD issue. With the iBook its the GPU. With both there's a screen resolution and FSB issue. In short it seems apparent to many that the laptops are behind the curve, so regardless of whether one feels the last PB update was recent or not, that update is now insufficient with regard to the OS and/or upcoming apps. It would seem Apple is impelled to address this imminently.
Thanks for the chart Rhumgod. I think what it shows is that there is no pattern. It suggests only that one can reasonably expect some update (minor or major) every 6-9 months.
What will irk me if Apple doesn't produce a new PB closer to the 6 month end of the range is that the PB and iBook are lagging behind other aspects of Apple's hardware and software offerings. With the PB it seems to be an HD issue. With the iBook its the GPU. With both there's a screen resolution and FSB issue. In short it seems apparent to many that the laptops are behind the curve, so regardless of whether one feels the last PB update was recent or not, that update is now insufficient with regard to the OS and/or upcoming apps. It would seem Apple is impelled to address this imminently.
Excellent points. This 9-month bump was really ludicrous. The team working on the scroll-pad thing must have been laughing their asses off thinking this will entice users on the brink of buying. Wow them with software when the hardware is increasingly lacking.
I think whatever comes out of WWDC, one thing is for sure: the G4 has a very short life expectancy.
<edit> After studying the graph I posted, I just realized that the G4 in Apple's portables is 4.5 years old (not to mention the nearing-six-year life span of the G4 itself - Motorola must be laughing all the way to the bank!</edit>
Yeah, I remember. There was some rumbling about the so called PowerTune technology. Never heard again since then.
PowerTune is present in all the current G5s that are released. Isn't really good enough to get the chip into PowerBooks but iMacs and top end Powermacs certainly have it present and usable.
So is 5 months out of the question? I don't think so. Time will tell.
Well, it will only be slightly over 4 months at WWDC. If the whole line is updated then it will be the shortest real, normal update on the chart by two months. Thanks to the chart, I'm firmly in the no full-line update at WWDC camp.
Once we hit WWDC, however, we are at the point of being closer to the next update than the last one. One thing to remember, the last titanium powerbook showed that apple has waited for another double-digit month period to update a powerbook model, a fact unfortunately missing from the chart. Add that fact in and take out the 2 & 3 month flukes (both special cases) and the average would probably rise roughly a month.
As you see... these are 2ghz 7447... not sure if a or b model however. I was shocked to see apple didn't go higher than 1.67... Perhaps they knew they would need a few more g4 bumps and held back a bit in light of waiting for the next generation of processors?
Well, it will only be slightly over 4 months at WWDC. If the whole line is updated then it will be the shortest real, normal update on the chart by two months. Thanks to the chart, I'm firmly in the no full-line update at WWDC camp.
Once we hit WWDC, however, we are at the point of being closer to the next update than the last one. One thing to remember, the last titanium powerbook showed that apple has waited for another double-digit month period to update a powerbook model, a fact unfortunately missing from the chart. Add that fact in and take out the 2 & 3 month flukes (both special cases) and the average would probably rise roughly a month.
If you look back at the processor jump revisions (G3 -> G4) there was quite a lag time - I think Apple waited until the last minute before this past MWSF 2005 to bump the PowerBooks. When they didn't make it, they bumped them on Jan 31st. So, it wouldn't shock me to see another processor jump about WWDC.
Also, back then, Apple was heavily into the MWNY (mid summer schedule) conferences, so WWDC pushes that schedule up, being a bit sooner than the mid-July MWBoston.
It's inaccurate to say that the timeline shows the PowerBook is due for an update because the average update has been 7+ months, but it will be exactly 4 months between WWDC and the time the last update shipped. If you want to come up with some other rationale for why there might be a PowerBook G5, or if you want to just hope, then good for you. But it's not "due" according to the calendar.
It's inaccurate to say that the timeline shows the PowerBook is due for an update because the average update has been 7+ months, but it will be exactly 4 months between WWDC and the time the last update shipped. If you want to come up with some other rationale for why there might be a PowerBook G5, or if you want to just hope, then good for you. But it's not "due" according to the calendar.
The bottom line is: The usual 6 months upgrades no longer are valid. as you can see in the chart from Rhumgod there is not a time frame that has been consistent at all. Just because the average is 7 months that doesn't mean we can't see something earlier.
Look at the Powermac G5, everybody thought in 6 months we would see an update. It took almost a year and it was a minor update. The Powerbook last update, 9 months and minor update.
We can't expect these 6-7 months time frames or calendars to be accurate anymore. Apple seems to be announcing things on the market demand or product availability.
6 months was never usual. The accurate average is about 8 months. We'll be at the 4 month mark with WWDC, half of the average and two months shorter than the next shortest full update.
Also don't forget that the one thing apple is pretty consistent with is disappointing users when it comes to updates.
What I am trying to say is that is very possible to see a powerbook update at WWDC. Just because it doesn't fall into the 6-7-8-9 month category doesn't make it unlikely. As we can see even in 2 months we saw updates or as long as 1 year. So there isn't any "rule".
Anyway, there have been shorter times (2 months, 3 months) when they received updates. Granted the PDQ update was due to bus speed issues and multiple screen size supply problems, but the 3 month update was for the 12" and 17" aluminum intro.
The "schedule" is pretty much open ended. Depends on how many current PowerBooks are in the channel. My guess is that they didn't have enough so they bumped what specs they could in a short period of time.
Either that or MWBoston will see PowerBook updates.
Anyway, there have been shorter times (2 months, 3 months) when they received updates. Granted the PDQ update was due to bus speed issues and multiple screen size supply problems, but the 3 month update was for the 12" and 17" aluminum intro.
Which is why neither one really counts. Look at how people have been calling for new powerbooks just 2-3 month in from the last update. If all apple does is add an HD powerbook without touching the current line until november will it really count as an update? I don't think it really does or that most folks will be content and, as someone who bought a 15" powerbook in nov 02 (the only kind of powerbook that existed at the time) that didn't get updated for 10-11 months, I don't think that counts as a 2 month update. It's not just your chart; that period has been cited in every discussion everywhere from people hoping to get the whole line updated.
All that said, I'm itching to buy both a new powerbook and ibook as soon as both are updated, and I'm hopeful that the reports of Q2 shipments are at least partially correct. I see nothing preventing apple from releasing a new model or updating the line, but apple is relatively consistent when it comes to disappointing users expecting updates, particularly big ones.
I expect end of summer/early fall, but I hope to be wrong. If it's another g4 update I wouldn't expect it at an event.
The bottom line is: The usual 6 months upgrades no longer are valid. as you can see in the chart from Rhumgod there is not a time frame that has been consistent at all. Just because the average is 7 months that doesn't mean we can't see something earlier.
Look at the Powermac G5, everybody thought in 6 months we would see an update. It took almost a year and it was a minor update. The Powerbook last update, 9 months and minor update.
We can't expect these 6-7 months time frames or calendars to be accurate anymore. Apple seems to be announcing things on the market demand or product availability.
I'll chalk that up to "just hope" then.
Look, it just doesn't make economic sense to manufacture a new machine only to sell it for a few months. And that two month update time wasn't a new model, it was the intro of the 12" and 17" models alongside the existing model.
Anything is possible, and maybe they'll do with the PowerBook what they did with the PowerMac two years ago - give the G4 one last update in January and then announce the G5 at WWDC. But that's just hope, and it's not based on the timeline of updates, and it's not based on any reliable information about a new G5 like there was with the PowerMac. More likely, I think they'll pull a Pismo and extend the life of the last G4 PowerBook until a new G5 is ready.
I'll bet ya on this. No new PowerBook at WWDC. Either way I win - if I'm wrong, I can get a new PowerBook, and if I'm right, I win the bet.
Comments
Originally posted by BRussell
Why are you folks talking about the PB being due for an update? The current model started shipping in early February (announced Jan. 31 to start shipping in a week).
That's 3 1/2 months ago. When WWDC rolls around that will have been 4 months. According to the MacRumors Buyer's Guide, the average update time is 6 months. But even that includes adding models, rather than just updating existing models. It's more like 8 months - the last update took 9 months. It simply doesn't make economic sense to replace a computer after only 4 months or so.
Just because they announce something at WWDC doesn't mean it will ship immediately. Remember w hen they announced the g5 at wwdc 2003? Took 2-3 months later to really ship out.
Either way, there has been a time when the powerbooks were updated in 3 months...... the powermacs were updated in 2 months (powermac 1.42->g5 2.0)
Anything can happen if the market demands it.
Originally posted by emig647
Just because they announce something at WWDC doesn't mean it will ship immediately. Remember w hen they announced the g5 at wwdc 2003? Took 2-3 months later to really ship out.
Either way, there has been a time when the powerbooks were updated in 3 months...... the powermacs were updated in 2 months (powermac 1.42->g5 2.0)
Anything can happen if the market demands it.
Anything is possible, and I'd love to see it, as I'd probably buy one. But it's still highly unlikely to follow the identical pattern to the PowerMacs in 2003, and it's inaccurate to state, as several people in this thread have, that the PowerBook timeline suggests an imminent update.
Originally posted by BRussell
Anything is possible, and I'd love to see it, as I'd probably buy one. But it's still highly unlikely to follow the identical pattern to the PowerMacs in 2003, and it's inaccurate to state, as several people in this thread have, that the PowerBook timeline suggests an imminent update.
what are you talking about? why is inaccurate?
So is 5 months out of the question? I don't think so. Time will tell.
What will irk me if Apple doesn't produce a new PB closer to the 6 month end of the range is that the PB and iBook are lagging behind other aspects of Apple's hardware and software offerings. With the PB it seems to be an HD issue. With the iBook its the GPU. With both there's a screen resolution and FSB issue. In short it seems apparent to many that the laptops are behind the curve, so regardless of whether one feels the last PB update was recent or not, that update is now insufficient with regard to the OS and/or upcoming apps. It would seem Apple is impelled to address this imminently.
Originally posted by surfacenuts
Thanks for the chart Rhumgod. I think what it shows is that there is no pattern. It suggests only that one can reasonably expect some update (minor or major) every 6-9 months.
What will irk me if Apple doesn't produce a new PB closer to the 6 month end of the range is that the PB and iBook are lagging behind other aspects of Apple's hardware and software offerings. With the PB it seems to be an HD issue. With the iBook its the GPU. With both there's a screen resolution and FSB issue. In short it seems apparent to many that the laptops are behind the curve, so regardless of whether one feels the last PB update was recent or not, that update is now insufficient with regard to the OS and/or upcoming apps. It would seem Apple is impelled to address this imminently.
Excellent points. This 9-month bump was really ludicrous. The team working on the scroll-pad thing must have been laughing their asses off thinking this will entice users on the brink of buying. Wow them with software when the hardware is increasingly lacking.
I think whatever comes out of WWDC, one thing is for sure: the G4 has a very short life expectancy.
<edit> After studying the graph I posted, I just realized that the G4 in Apple's portables is 4.5 years old (not to mention the nearing-six-year life span of the G4 itself - Motorola must be laughing all the way to the bank!</edit>
Originally posted by PB
Yeah, I remember. There was some rumbling about the so called PowerTune technology. Never heard again since then.
PowerTune is present in all the current G5s that are released. Isn't really good enough to get the chip into PowerBooks but iMacs and top end Powermacs certainly have it present and usable.
The last update clearly shows the G4 hit a wall and cannot move forward anymore. Next revision must be G5 at WWDC.
Originally posted by Rhumgod
For those who care:
So is 5 months out of the question? I don't think so. Time will tell.
Well, it will only be slightly over 4 months at WWDC. If the whole line is updated then it will be the shortest real, normal update on the chart by two months. Thanks to the chart, I'm firmly in the no full-line update at WWDC camp.
Once we hit WWDC, however, we are at the point of being closer to the next update than the last one. One thing to remember, the last titanium powerbook showed that apple has waited for another double-digit month period to update a powerbook model, a fact unfortunately missing from the chart. Add that fact in and take out the 2 & 3 month flukes (both special cases) and the average would probably rise roughly a month.
Originally posted by gugy
pretty sure the life of the G4 on the powerbook is near end.
The last update clearly shows the G4 hit a wall and cannot move forward anymore. Next revision must be G5 at WWDC.
There are 2ghz g4's present today that you can upgrade to... 1.67 is not the threshold... but very close...
2ghz g4
As you see... these are 2ghz 7447... not sure if a or b model however. I was shocked to see apple didn't go higher than 1.67... Perhaps they knew they would need a few more g4 bumps and held back a bit in light of waiting for the next generation of processors?
time to move on!
Originally posted by giant
Well, it will only be slightly over 4 months at WWDC. If the whole line is updated then it will be the shortest real, normal update on the chart by two months. Thanks to the chart, I'm firmly in the no full-line update at WWDC camp.
Once we hit WWDC, however, we are at the point of being closer to the next update than the last one. One thing to remember, the last titanium powerbook showed that apple has waited for another double-digit month period to update a powerbook model, a fact unfortunately missing from the chart. Add that fact in and take out the 2 & 3 month flukes (both special cases) and the average would probably rise roughly a month.
If you look back at the processor jump revisions (G3 -> G4) there was quite a lag time - I think Apple waited until the last minute before this past MWSF 2005 to bump the PowerBooks. When they didn't make it, they bumped them on Jan 31st. So, it wouldn't shock me to see another processor jump about WWDC.
Also, back then, Apple was heavily into the MWNY (mid summer schedule) conferences, so WWDC pushes that schedule up, being a bit sooner than the mid-July MWBoston.
Originally posted by gugy
what are you talking about? why is inaccurate?
It's inaccurate to say that the timeline shows the PowerBook is due for an update because the average update has been 7+ months, but it will be exactly 4 months between WWDC and the time the last update shipped. If you want to come up with some other rationale for why there might be a PowerBook G5, or if you want to just hope, then good for you. But it's not "due" according to the calendar.
Originally posted by BRussell
It's inaccurate to say that the timeline shows the PowerBook is due for an update because the average update has been 7+ months, but it will be exactly 4 months between WWDC and the time the last update shipped. If you want to come up with some other rationale for why there might be a PowerBook G5, or if you want to just hope, then good for you. But it's not "due" according to the calendar.
The bottom line is: The usual 6 months upgrades no longer are valid. as you can see in the chart from Rhumgod there is not a time frame that has been consistent at all. Just because the average is 7 months that doesn't mean we can't see something earlier.
Look at the Powermac G5, everybody thought in 6 months we would see an update. It took almost a year and it was a minor update. The Powerbook last update, 9 months and minor update.
We can't expect these 6-7 months time frames or calendars to be accurate anymore. Apple seems to be announcing things on the market demand or product availability.
Originally posted by gugy
The usual 6 months upgrades no longer are valid.
6 months was never usual. The accurate average is about 8 months. We'll be at the 4 month mark with WWDC, half of the average and two months shorter than the next shortest full update.
Also don't forget that the one thing apple is pretty consistent with is disappointing users when it comes to updates.
Anyway, there have been shorter times (2 months, 3 months) when they received updates. Granted the PDQ update was due to bus speed issues and multiple screen size supply problems, but the 3 month update was for the 12" and 17" aluminum intro.
The "schedule" is pretty much open ended. Depends on how many current PowerBooks are in the channel. My guess is that they didn't have enough so they bumped what specs they could in a short period of time.
Either that or MWBoston will see PowerBook updates.
Paris, then?
Originally posted by Rhumgod
Anyway, there have been shorter times (2 months, 3 months) when they received updates. Granted the PDQ update was due to bus speed issues and multiple screen size supply problems, but the 3 month update was for the 12" and 17" aluminum intro.
Which is why neither one really counts. Look at how people have been calling for new powerbooks just 2-3 month in from the last update. If all apple does is add an HD powerbook without touching the current line until november will it really count as an update? I don't think it really does or that most folks will be content and, as someone who bought a 15" powerbook in nov 02 (the only kind of powerbook that existed at the time) that didn't get updated for 10-11 months, I don't think that counts as a 2 month update. It's not just your chart; that period has been cited in every discussion everywhere from people hoping to get the whole line updated.
All that said, I'm itching to buy both a new powerbook and ibook as soon as both are updated, and I'm hopeful that the reports of Q2 shipments are at least partially correct. I see nothing preventing apple from releasing a new model or updating the line, but apple is relatively consistent when it comes to disappointing users expecting updates, particularly big ones.
I expect end of summer/early fall, but I hope to be wrong. If it's another g4 update I wouldn't expect it at an event.
Originally posted by gugy
The bottom line is: The usual 6 months upgrades no longer are valid. as you can see in the chart from Rhumgod there is not a time frame that has been consistent at all. Just because the average is 7 months that doesn't mean we can't see something earlier.
Look at the Powermac G5, everybody thought in 6 months we would see an update. It took almost a year and it was a minor update. The Powerbook last update, 9 months and minor update.
We can't expect these 6-7 months time frames or calendars to be accurate anymore. Apple seems to be announcing things on the market demand or product availability.
I'll chalk that up to "just hope" then.
Look, it just doesn't make economic sense to manufacture a new machine only to sell it for a few months. And that two month update time wasn't a new model, it was the intro of the 12" and 17" models alongside the existing model.
Anything is possible, and maybe they'll do with the PowerBook what they did with the PowerMac two years ago - give the G4 one last update in January and then announce the G5 at WWDC. But that's just hope, and it's not based on the timeline of updates, and it's not based on any reliable information about a new G5 like there was with the PowerMac. More likely, I think they'll pull a Pismo and extend the life of the last G4 PowerBook until a new G5 is ready.
I'll bet ya on this. No new PowerBook at WWDC. Either way I win - if I'm wrong, I can get a new PowerBook, and if I'm right, I win the bet.
Originally posted by BRussell
And that two month update time wasn't a new model, it was the intro of the 12" and 17" models alongside the existing model.
The existing model was a 15" Titanium model, remember? They were brand new.
Apple History