Hmmm.... I didn't know that Apple was a company that had sworn off the (fairly common) practice of earnings guidance (unlike thousands of companies) -- perhaps you know more about this.
I would be surprised if they did not do it (altho, some companies such as Coca Cola have explicitly said "no" to the practice of earnings guidance).
If you listen to the analysts call the day of the earnings release, you will see that Apple says nothing about future products, shipping dates, or the breakdown of current product sales, other than broad category division, such as desktops, laptops, iPods, software, etc., which is what we ware talking about, when we were talking about a years total sales.
Announcing the iPhone and the ATv well in advance was unusual for Apple, and they even took a beating for it, because it was so unusual.
The analysts are on their own. They have to do their own digging. If you read their reports, you will see that they refer to parts streams, re-aligned assembly lines, drying channel, parts purchases, etc.
That's the way they come up with their estimates. As each analyst has his, or her, own sources, their reports often don't match too closely, though sometimes they do.
We just happily guess according to what we want to see happen. We can do that. we don't get paid for it.
ThinkEquity Partners LCC on Monday joined a chorus of Wall Street firms predicting that Apple Inc. will be ready to deliver its next-generation Leopard operating system to market "in the next few weeks."
............
"We like how Vista has established a 'hardware upgrade mindset' among PC users, and we expect Apple CPU unit shipments to benefit from Vista tailwinds, the release of Leopard, and a CS3 pro catalyst," the analyst told clients. "Meanwhile, Apple's strong retail store presence; all the buzz around the iPhone, the hugely successful iPod/iTunes combo; and Apple's popular Mac ad campaign are likely to combine into a 'maybe I should buy a Mac' decision."
..............
With regard to the so-called "analysts" comments in bold above, I just want to say, a big hunking
TOLD YOU SO.
I did have different predictions on Leopard/Mac releases though.
Here's what I wrote, oh, a few days ago before all this came out:
Since some people are missing Shaw Wu, I'll try my best here.
"Despite the Vista marketing machine well underway, Apple, Inc. has recently decided to join the fray. Previously, Apple's "Get A Mac" campaign focused on a generic "PC vs. Mac" campaign, with only the latest ad in the series poking fun at Vista specifically.
Apple has decided to take the battle to Microsoft and a raft of PC manufacturers touting Vista and "Vista Ready" PCs. Recently, the Apple Online Store's header graphic was changed to say "Go beyond Vista. It's time to get a mac... Skip the hassles and choose the ultimate PC upgrade". Clicking on the link brings the user to a "Choose a Mac" page that mentions "Why upgrade to Vista when you can upgrade past it? Instead of installation nightmares and other hassles, you'll get a gorgeous Mac with the latest Intel chips, bundled software that you'll actually use, and an operating system that's still years ahead".
With no immediate inklings of new Macs or the release of the upcoming operating system "Leopard", long expected to be the direct competitor to Vista, this seems to be a startling yet expected move. Apple is attempting to latch on to the excitement-coupled-with-confusion Vista PC upgrade cycle by offering an alternative to Vista.
It argues that instead of a new gloss over what is still Windows, consumers get a completely different operating system. Instead of "installation nightmares", consumers can purchase a Mac that is ready to go, with "bundled software you'll actually use", hinting that Vista's Windows Calendar, Contacts, Mail, Meeting Space, Photo Gallery and other bundled programs do not stand up well to Mac-bundled alternatives or other PC software such as Google's free Picasa photo organizer.
Some industry observers were puzzled that alongside the juggernaut of Microsoft's Vista launches, Apple, Inc. decided instead to reveal and tout its almost half-a-year-away "iPhone". Now that the Vista dust has begun to settle though, it appears Apple is ready to take Vista head-on, not with new hardware or software, but with their current product line-up and the almost 2-year-old "Tiger" operating system.
Given these bold moves, we maintain a "outperform" rating on Apple, Inc. stock with a price target of $120. Expected in Spring and Summer of 2007, new Mac and iPod launches and the release of the brand new "Leopard" operating system should bolster Mac sales and add lots more ammunition to Apple's assault on Vista and the PC market. Not to mention the upcoming release of Adobe/Macromedia's CS3 production suite for creative professionals around April, which will be the first major non-Apple-branded release of creative production software that takes full advantage of the new Mac-Intel platform. We believe Apple's continued justified confidence will contribute to a stellar financial 2007 for the company."
This release is too important to Apple. With the lack of progress so far that we are seeing, an early release will have to be buggy.
If this release is buggy, a lot of negative publicity will follow, because of its juxtaposition to Vista, that it hasn't gotten before.
Apple must attempt to release 10.5 in as pristine a fashion as possible. I would much rather wait until the Dev Conf.
I don't understand the eagerness. What's a couple of months going to do to someone's life? Whoever buys this will have it for two more years.
I would have to say I'm with you on this.
Personally I want the people waiting in the wings for Adobe|Macromedia CS3 to have the best MacIntel transition possible.
Coupled with new MacPro hardware, other mid-April NAB announcements... I want the creative pros back into Mac. Especially the web designers that jumped ship to have smoother faster Flash/Dreamweaver/Potatochop workflows.
The key is: 10.4.9 with a lot of stability and bugs worked out.
Throw in CS3, new Macs, AND LEOPARD AS WELL, and it's a market strategy that relies too much on the early-adopter-lets-try-this-out crowd and not enough on the core lets-get-back[or.buy.more]-into-Macs-like-white-on-rice!!
Looks like my local reseller is starting to take pre-order bookings for Leopard. Price is preliminarily set at 1195kr which is approx. $119.50. (seems too cheap in my books). Nice of them to include a free 512mb memory stick as an incentive to pre-book.
Too bad they only make the offer for the Swedish version and not for the English version which would make me jump on the offer. While I can speak Swedish, I prefer the English version. The text also states that the offer only applies to shipped versions of Leopard and does not apply to thier store's versions. (silly! IMHO).
I'm still sticking to my guns that Apple is going fake everyone out and release Leopard in the next few weeks.
Why Apple would play hide and seek with the developers? It is not anymore the 80's nor the 90's with minimal third party software available (compared to what we have today).
What is the point of that? So, we will have to wait 6 months to a year to see these new "killer" features working in major programs? We will have rez independence with no programs able to take advantage of it?
Other features as well?
How embarrassing! And how angry these developers will be. And rightly so!
Again, yes.
Keep it simple. No grand conspiracies. No double blind builds that screw software developers.
It's just not ready yet.
No matter how much we want it.
Ah, the voice of reason. But perhaps Apple does not like it.
Personally I want the people waiting in the wings for Adobe|Macromedia CS3 to have the best MacIntel transition possible.
Coupled with new MacPro hardware, other mid-April NAB announcements... I want the creative pros back into Mac. Especially the web designers that jumped ship to have smoother faster Flash/Dreamweaver/Potatochop workflows.
The key is: 10.4.9 with a lot of stability and bugs worked out.
Throw in CS3, new Macs, AND LEOPARD AS WELL, and it's a market strategy that relies too much on the early-adopter-lets-try-this-out crowd and not enough on the core lets-get-back[or.buy.more]-into-Macs-like-white-on-rice!!
Ahhh, you're singing my song. Give me a refreshed Mac Pro and CS3 and it's MacIntel for me.
And 10.4.9 will do nicely thank you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008
...Sabretooth... (extinct though. "I'm a Mac, and my OS is extinct..." ...not good)...
not such a big cat, more a wolf/dog actually perhaps(?)...
10.6 Lynx
10.7 Cougar
maybe grand ending in...
10.8 Lion [The King of The Jungle]
and............. voila.
What comes after OSX ?
I think they'll go back to "Mac OS". Or just "Mac".
Maybe iSteve will finally get his wish of the hardware and software
being indistinguishable from each other.
When Jobs first announced X, he said that it would be Apple's operating system for the next 15 years.
If we take 2000 as a baseline (just for the numbers), then it's good until 2015. Add another year or so, because it didn't actually come out in 2000, and you get about 2016.
If we assume that Apple will now intro new versions every 24 months or so, that gets us 10.9 just about 2015.
Assuming they have been thinking about its successor already, they have plenty of time to work on it. After 10.9 in 2015 comes OS ? in 2017 perhaps.
When Jobs first announced X, he said that it would be Apple's operating system for the next 15 years.
If we take 2000 as a baseline (just for the numbers), then it's good until 2015. Add another year or so, because it didn't actually come out in 2000, and you get about 2016.
If we assume that Apple will now intro new versions every 24 months or so, that gets us 10.9 just about 2015.
Assuming they have been thinking about its successor already, they have plenty of time to work on it. After 10.9 in 2015 comes OS ? in 2017 perhaps.
He actually said 10 years if you look at his first Aqua demo, which would point to around 2010-2011.
not for me, panther was much faster, until a few 'fixes' later. i expect the same with the new OS.
You're the only person I've ever heard of for whom Panther was faster than Tiger. My guess is you were the victim of a bug.
Also, in that case, its not really fair to compare Tiger patches to service packs, as you previously did. OS X patches (i.e. going from 10.4 to 10.4.1, for example) come out a lot more quickly than most service packs, which usually take a year or so.
Apple aren't necessarily "faking out" the devs - all the stuff you'll need as a developer in Leopard is there. I think the bugs are a red herring, and the stuff that's of interest to end users is not only being omitted from devprevs, but it's good to go.
Apple should be running an ad campaign that says: [indent]"Hey, Microsoft is making you buy a new PC just to get a new pretty look. Why not buy a new Mac and get more? And when our new OSX is ready, no new Mac just a $129 upgrade and you're there. Wanna see what we're talking about?".
I suspect it will cost more. Given that it will likely break iLife 06, upgrading to iLife 07 will be mandatory, and could be considered part of the upgrade cost.
Apple aren't necessarily "faking out" the devs - all the stuff you'll need as a developer in Leopard is there. I think the bugs are a red herring, and the stuff that's of interest to end users is not only being omitted from devprevs, but it's good to go.
Comments
Actually, I found Tiger to be both fast and good from the get-go. I didn't have super hardware to run it on either.
Me too. Upgrading to Tiger over Panther noticeably sped up my system.
Me too. Upgrading to Tiger over Panther noticeably sped up my system.
not for me, panther was much faster, until a few 'fixes' later. i expect the same with the new OS.
Hmmm.... I didn't know that Apple was a company that had sworn off the (fairly common) practice of earnings guidance (unlike thousands of companies) -- perhaps you know more about this.
I would be surprised if they did not do it (altho, some companies such as Coca Cola have explicitly said "no" to the practice of earnings guidance).
If you listen to the analysts call the day of the earnings release, you will see that Apple says nothing about future products, shipping dates, or the breakdown of current product sales, other than broad category division, such as desktops, laptops, iPods, software, etc., which is what we ware talking about, when we were talking about a years total sales.
Announcing the iPhone and the ATv well in advance was unusual for Apple, and they even took a beating for it, because it was so unusual.
The analysts are on their own. They have to do their own digging. If you read their reports, you will see that they refer to parts streams, re-aligned assembly lines, drying channel, parts purchases, etc.
That's the way they come up with their estimates. As each analyst has his, or her, own sources, their reports often don't match too closely, though sometimes they do.
We just happily guess according to what we want to see happen. We can do that. we don't get paid for it.
ThinkEquity Partners LCC on Monday joined a chorus of Wall Street firms predicting that Apple Inc. will be ready to deliver its next-generation Leopard operating system to market "in the next few weeks."
............
"We like how Vista has established a 'hardware upgrade mindset' among PC users, and we expect Apple CPU unit shipments to benefit from Vista tailwinds, the release of Leopard, and a CS3 pro catalyst," the analyst told clients. "Meanwhile, Apple's strong retail store presence; all the buzz around the iPhone, the hugely successful iPod/iTunes combo; and Apple's popular Mac ad campaign are likely to combine into a 'maybe I should buy a Mac' decision."
..............
With regard to the so-called "analysts" comments in bold above, I just want to say, a big hunking
TOLD YOU SO.
I did have different predictions on Leopard/Mac releases though.
Here's what I wrote, oh, a few days ago before all this came out:
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?p=1054052
Since some people are missing Shaw Wu, I'll try my best here.
"Despite the Vista marketing machine well underway, Apple, Inc. has recently decided to join the fray. Previously, Apple's "Get A Mac" campaign focused on a generic "PC vs. Mac" campaign, with only the latest ad in the series poking fun at Vista specifically.
Apple has decided to take the battle to Microsoft and a raft of PC manufacturers touting Vista and "Vista Ready" PCs. Recently, the Apple Online Store's header graphic was changed to say "Go beyond Vista. It's time to get a mac... Skip the hassles and choose the ultimate PC upgrade". Clicking on the link brings the user to a "Choose a Mac" page that mentions "Why upgrade to Vista when you can upgrade past it? Instead of installation nightmares and other hassles, you'll get a gorgeous Mac with the latest Intel chips, bundled software that you'll actually use, and an operating system that's still years ahead".
With no immediate inklings of new Macs or the release of the upcoming operating system "Leopard", long expected to be the direct competitor to Vista, this seems to be a startling yet expected move. Apple is attempting to latch on to the excitement-coupled-with-confusion Vista PC upgrade cycle by offering an alternative to Vista.
It argues that instead of a new gloss over what is still Windows, consumers get a completely different operating system. Instead of "installation nightmares", consumers can purchase a Mac that is ready to go, with "bundled software you'll actually use", hinting that Vista's Windows Calendar, Contacts, Mail, Meeting Space, Photo Gallery and other bundled programs do not stand up well to Mac-bundled alternatives or other PC software such as Google's free Picasa photo organizer.
Some industry observers were puzzled that alongside the juggernaut of Microsoft's Vista launches, Apple, Inc. decided instead to reveal and tout its almost half-a-year-away "iPhone". Now that the Vista dust has begun to settle though, it appears Apple is ready to take Vista head-on, not with new hardware or software, but with their current product line-up and the almost 2-year-old "Tiger" operating system.
Given these bold moves, we maintain a "outperform" rating on Apple, Inc. stock with a price target of $120. Expected in Spring and Summer of 2007, new Mac and iPod launches and the release of the brand new "Leopard" operating system should bolster Mac sales and add lots more ammunition to Apple's assault on Vista and the PC market. Not to mention the upcoming release of Adobe/Macromedia's CS3 production suite for creative professionals around April, which will be the first major non-Apple-branded release of creative production software that takes full advantage of the new Mac-Intel platform. We believe Apple's continued justified confidence will contribute to a stellar financial 2007 for the company."
I'm not looking forward to an early release.
This release is too important to Apple. With the lack of progress so far that we are seeing, an early release will have to be buggy.
If this release is buggy, a lot of negative publicity will follow, because of its juxtaposition to Vista, that it hasn't gotten before.
Apple must attempt to release 10.5 in as pristine a fashion as possible. I would much rather wait until the Dev Conf.
I don't understand the eagerness. What's a couple of months going to do to someone's life? Whoever buys this will have it for two more years.
I would have to say I'm with you on this.
Personally I want the people waiting in the wings for Adobe|Macromedia CS3 to have the best MacIntel transition possible.
Coupled with new MacPro hardware, other mid-April NAB announcements... I want the creative pros back into Mac. Especially the web designers that jumped ship to have smoother faster Flash/Dreamweaver/Potatochop workflows.
The key is: 10.4.9 with a lot of stability and bugs worked out.
Throw in CS3, new Macs, AND LEOPARD AS WELL, and it's a market strategy that relies too much on the early-adopter-lets-try-this-out crowd and not enough on the core lets-get-back[or.buy.more]-into-Macs-like-white-on-rice!!
I'm still sticking to my guns that Apple is going fake everyone out and release Leopard in the next few weeks.
Agree.
Too bad they only make the offer for the Swedish version and not for the English version which would make me jump on the offer. While I can speak Swedish, I prefer the English version. The text also states that the offer only applies to shipped versions of Leopard and does not apply to thier store's versions. (silly! IMHO).
Here's the link for those interested:
http://www.macoteket.se/product_list...uct_id=1131383
I'm still sticking to my guns that Apple is going fake everyone out and release Leopard in the next few weeks.
Why Apple would play hide and seek with the developers? It is not anymore the 80's nor the 90's with minimal third party software available (compared to what we have today).
What is the point of that? So, we will have to wait 6 months to a year to see these new "killer" features working in major programs? We will have rez independence with no programs able to take advantage of it?
Other features as well?
How embarrassing! And how angry these developers will be. And rightly so!
Again, yes.
Keep it simple. No grand conspiracies. No double blind builds that screw software developers.
It's just not ready yet.
No matter how much we want it.
Ah, the voice of reason. But perhaps Apple does not like it.
..and we'll be running out of big cats... there's always Lion.
Lion, Lynx, Cougar 8)
...Sabretooth... (extinct though. "I'm a Mac, and my OS is extinct..." ...not good)...
...Also TasmanianTiger ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_tiger ) -
not such a big cat, more a wolf/dog actually perhaps(?)...
10.6 Lynx
10.7 Cougar
maybe grand ending in...
10.8 Lion [The King of The Jungle]
and............. voila.
What comes after OSX ?
I think they'll go back to "Mac OS". Or just "Mac".
Maybe iSteve will finally get his wish of the hardware and software
being indistinguishable from each other.
I would have to say I'm with you on this.
Personally I want the people waiting in the wings for Adobe|Macromedia CS3 to have the best MacIntel transition possible.
Coupled with new MacPro hardware, other mid-April NAB announcements... I want the creative pros back into Mac. Especially the web designers that jumped ship to have smoother faster Flash/Dreamweaver/Potatochop workflows.
The key is: 10.4.9 with a lot of stability and bugs worked out.
Throw in CS3, new Macs, AND LEOPARD AS WELL, and it's a market strategy that relies too much on the early-adopter-lets-try-this-out crowd and not enough on the core lets-get-back[or.buy.more]-into-Macs-like-white-on-rice!!
Ahhh, you're singing my song.
And 10.4.9 will do nicely thank you.
...Sabretooth... (extinct though. "I'm a Mac, and my OS is extinct..." ...not good)...
...Also TasmanianTiger ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_tiger ) -
not such a big cat, more a wolf/dog actually perhaps(?)...
Ummm, aren't Tasmanian Tigers extinct as well...unless you've been drinking and are driving home late at night on a lonely stretch of road that is....
Lion, Lynx, Cougar 8)
...Sabretooth... (extinct though. "I'm a Mac, and my OS is extinct..." ...not good)...
...Also TasmanianTiger ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_tiger ) -
not such a big cat, more a wolf/dog actually perhaps(?)...
10.6 Lynx
10.7 Cougar
maybe grand ending in...
10.8 Lion [The King of The Jungle]
and............. voila.
What comes after OSX ?
I think they'll go back to "Mac OS". Or just "Mac".
Maybe iSteve will finally get his wish of the hardware and software
being indistinguishable from each other.
When Jobs first announced X, he said that it would be Apple's operating system for the next 15 years.
If we take 2000 as a baseline (just for the numbers), then it's good until 2015. Add another year or so, because it didn't actually come out in 2000, and you get about 2016.
If we assume that Apple will now intro new versions every 24 months or so, that gets us 10.9 just about 2015.
Assuming they have been thinking about its successor already, they have plenty of time to work on it. After 10.9 in 2015 comes OS ? in 2017 perhaps.
When Jobs first announced X, he said that it would be Apple's operating system for the next 15 years.
If we take 2000 as a baseline (just for the numbers), then it's good until 2015. Add another year or so, because it didn't actually come out in 2000, and you get about 2016.
If we assume that Apple will now intro new versions every 24 months or so, that gets us 10.9 just about 2015.
Assuming they have been thinking about its successor already, they have plenty of time to work on it. After 10.9 in 2015 comes OS ? in 2017 perhaps.
He actually said 10 years if you look at his first Aqua demo, which would point to around 2010-2011.
not for me, panther was much faster, until a few 'fixes' later. i expect the same with the new OS.
You're the only person I've ever heard of for whom Panther was faster than Tiger. My guess is you were the victim of a bug.
Also, in that case, its not really fair to compare Tiger patches to service packs, as you previously did. OS X patches (i.e. going from 10.4 to 10.4.1, for example) come out a lot more quickly than most service packs, which usually take a year or so.
.
Apple should be running an ad campaign that says: [indent]"Hey, Microsoft is making you buy a new PC just to get a new pretty look. Why not buy a new Mac and get more? And when our new OSX is ready, no new Mac just a $129 upgrade and you're there. Wanna see what we're talking about?".
I suspect it will cost more. Given that it will likely break iLife 06, upgrading to iLife 07 will be mandatory, and could be considered part of the upgrade cost.
Ahhh, you're singing my song.
8)
Ummm, aren't Tasmanian Tigers extinct as well...unless you've been drinking and are driving home late at night on a lonely stretch of road that is....
And a possible conspiracy by the Australian-American Secret Government thrown in.
He actually said 10 years if you look at his first Aqua demo, which would point to around 2010-2011.
Really? I remember a 15 year number in a speech in late 1999.
Apple aren't necessarily "faking out" the devs - all the stuff you'll need as a developer in Leopard is there. I think the bugs are a red herring, and the stuff that's of interest to end users is not only being omitted from devprevs, but it's good to go.
Quite a leap.