Apple iPhone may capture 26 percent of smartphone buyers - report

Posted:
in iPod + iTunes + AppleTV edited January 2014
While it has yet to ship its first cellphone, Apple is already tied with BlackBerry producer RIM in desirability, a just-published study reveals.



Research group ChangeWave announced the findings on Thursday, confirming early suspicions from analysts that the iPhone will dull the impact of the BlackBerry Pearl and other smartphones in the eyes of potential subscribers.



Conducted in April, the study shows that just over a quarter of all potential buyers in the consumer field are set on buying the Apple phone when it launches this month. The figure is an exact match for future Canadian rival Research in Motion, whose BlackBerries have held their appeal in recent months.



Potentially more impressive is Apple's seeming foothold on the business market, ChangeWave says. Though the research firm conducted its study before reports surfaced of corporate account bans that prevent the iPhone from selling directly to businesses in the early phase of its release, findings from a corporate analysis in May point to 9 percent of study members preferring the new device to established rivals.



Apple is also causing a shockwave effect in the industry as a result, according to the report. Motorola, Nokia, and Palm have all seen rapid declines in their attractiveness to buyers since the end of 2006 -- falling to 5, 3, and 10 percent respectively in the number of planned consumer phone purchases at the time of the April poll. And while RIM has cemented its position in the office world, climbing to 67 percent of all smartphones sold, Apple's presence may sap the strength of Motorola (16 percent) and Palm (19 percent), either of which "may well be in danger" of eroding marketshare, ChangeWave claims.



Irrespective of the business or home spheres, however, the study portrays the mid-2007 smartphone industry as a two-man race, with Apple set to outrun current followers and giving RIM genuine competition.



"Going forward, the Apple iPhone launch poses an enormous challenge to Palm, Motorola and Nokia -- all of whom can be expected to record lows," the report says. "So whether talking about the consumer or the corporate [smartphone] space, it's quite clear that the iPhone spells trouble for many of the industry's players."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 83
    If the iPhone has all the announced features and the stability of OS X, the rest of the competition, if you can call them that, should be quivering in their feet.



    BUT, Apple has yet to pierce into the Enterprise level... That is their biggest weakness, and a big one at that. You can be sure that Palm, BB, etc. will all be trying hard to keep the iPhone from being supported from enterprise applications
  • Reply 2 of 83
    kreshkresh Posts: 379member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by EruIthildur View Post


    If the iPhone has all the announced features and the stability of OS X, the rest of the competition, if you can call them that, should be quivering in their feet.



    BUT, Apple has yet to pierce into the Enterprise level... That is their biggest weakness, and a big one at that. You can be sure that Palm, BB, etc. will all be trying hard to keep the iPhone from being supported from enterprise applications



    Computer sales at the enterprise level are a commodity at best. While the volume sales to enterprise customers could lower component costs, I just don't see Apple chasing it.



    You really can't blame them; with 7.6% market share (revealed today) in the US, but with 50% of Microsoft's net income, Apple seems to have their business plan down cold!
  • Reply 3 of 83
    ajhillajhill Posts: 81member
    It is now starting to sink in.



    Remember, boys and girls, Apple gets a (as of yet undisclosed amount) kickback from every iPhone sold, from every month's bill. And that's something that no other handset maker gets. So when they have sold 10 million iPhones they will be receiving, oh maybe, $300 Million per year in free money from royalties. Is it any wonder Verizon said "No" Boy will they be sorry.



    And don't forget, Apple sells an enterprise server, Xserve. It would be a snap for them to develop a mail server app and give it away with every Xserve sold. But let's worry about the consumer end first.



    At current growth rate Apple Inc. will PASS Microsoft in market capitalization in about 5.5 years. Whether or not they pass them in PC market share. And that's assuming MSFT's share price doesn't decline from here. Why would it go up, if they are loosing market share to Apple?



    This is a multi-year Steve Jobs renaissance, and it's just getting started.
  • Reply 4 of 83
    kickahakickaha Posts: 8,760member
    You know, that's one cross-over I hadn't thought of, but makes perfect sense: deploy custom PBX-esque servers on Xserve for business to have their own communications channels... via iPhones. Nice. Further relegating the cell carriers to Just Another ISP at the same time... even better.
  • Reply 5 of 83
    irelandireland Posts: 17,452member
    The iPhone is gonna be a big one, no survey can prove of deny that, it's just in the stars. In other news; my damn nitro car wont start!
  • Reply 6 of 83
    hattighattig Posts: 827member
    I've just spent ages trying to get a Windows Mobile device to connect to a wireless network with WPA-PSK. Gah. It hangs the entire system every time.



    If Apple can get it right, and it looks like they will at the OS and software level, even if the custom applications level is a bit weak, then it will do well.



    People hate hassle. Windows Mobile, Motorola, Nokia .... it's all hassle (in descending order).



    Geeks like hassle, that's why they bemoan the lack of native on-board custom applications and other restrictions that the iPhone may or may not have. They rate that as a bigger concern than usability and stress-free-ness.



    Every one else just wants a stress-free time with their smartphone. The iPhone could be the device to give them what they want, something that just works. I bet loads of them won't even use the flash memory for music or video apart from a few tracks maybe, they'll just want the rest of the phone's features.



    What the iPhone is seriously lacking is mobile Office-like software however. Online applications like Google's are simply not up to scratch (although they're an option at least with the iPhone). I really would like the iPhone to have (firstly) viewers for Keynote, Pages, Word, Powerpoint, etc, documents, and later on editors. Seeing as Apple has applications that do these, I think there is a strong chance within the next year that iPhone versions will be available, for a fee, from the iTunes store.
  • Reply 7 of 83
    bdkennedy1bdkennedy1 Posts: 1,459member
    Jesus I can't f'ing wait until I can come to AppleInsider without seeing some pointless story about what the iPhone MAY do, or for that matter seeing the word iPhone at all.
  • Reply 8 of 83
    All I can think of is the CEO of Palm commenting on the iPhone when it was first introduced. I wonder if it's hit him yet
  • Reply 9 of 83
    adpowersadpowers Posts: 188member
    Hattig, you are assuming 3rd party apps and a stress-free phone are mutually exclusive, which I don't believe is the case.



    As for viewers for documents on the phone, maybe that's where QuickView comes in.
  • Reply 10 of 83
    kickahakickaha Posts: 8,760member
    I keep thinking that QuickLook + Back To My Mac would be a killer way to *view* most any document on your Mac back at the homebase... not edit, just view. But still. No special stripped down viewer app for every little document type needed.
  • Reply 11 of 83
    atxz06atxz06 Posts: 11member
    It will be interesting to see how a non smartphone captures 26% of the segments buyers. One would have to speculate that smartphone buyers are looking for cool rather than smart.
  • Reply 12 of 83
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,163member
    It's interesting that Windows Mobile isn't mentioned. A whole bunch of companies make those phones.
  • Reply 13 of 83
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 18,738member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hattig View Post


    Geeks like hassle, that's why they bemoan the lack of native on-board custom applications and other restrictions that the iPhone may or may not have. They rate that as a bigger concern than usability and stress-free-ness.



    Every one else just wants a stress-free time with their smartphone. The iPhone could be the device to give them what they want, something that just works.



    Well put! My thoughts exactly.
  • Reply 14 of 83
    murphywebmurphyweb Posts: 295member
    Quote:

    Computer sales at the enterprise level are a commodity at best. While the volume sales to enterprise customers could lower component costs, I just don't see Apple chasing it.



    Maybe i would agree with you if Apple were a hardware vendor, but they are a software vendor and the enterprise is where the profits are. I fully expect this rebirth of Apple as a serious competitor to the dominance of MS to be realised on the office desktop, it is clearly the direction that Apple will have to eventually take. I am in the office communications business and the thought of Apple entering this market excites me, i hope it happens and think in the next year or two it will.
  • Reply 15 of 83
    The iPhone isn't a smart phone. Once you can put your own apps on it, it will be. RIM shouldn't worry for the time being, they're on fire, and they've had a slew of great products come out since the iPhone was announced and I'm sure there's more on the way. Sony-Ericsson should be the ones worrying, their media phones are what the iPhone is more positioned to target.



    And I second the mention of too many iPhone articles. I can't wait till it's released so that hopefully slows them down.
  • Reply 16 of 83
    I agree. The iPhone isn't going to replace smartphones, but other high end phones sales will drop.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Anawrahta View Post


    The iPhone isn't a smart phone. Once you can put your own apps on it, it will be. RIM shouldn't worry for the time being, they're on fire, and they've had a slew of great products come out since the iPhone was announced and I'm sure there's more on the way. Sony-Ericsson should be the ones worrying, their media phones are what the iPhone is more positioned to target.



    And I second the mention of too many iPhone articles. I can't wait till it's released so that hopefully slows them down.



  • Reply 17 of 83
    rg_spbrg_spb Posts: 21member
    The iPhone is going to be one of the final nails in Palms coffin. The rest of which Palm will nail in themselves if they don't start listening to their customers. "Things" like the Foleo are only rushing Palms demise.
  • Reply 18 of 83
    physguyphysguy Posts: 913member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by murphyweb View Post


    Maybe i would agree with you if Apple were a hardware vendor, but they are a software vendor and the enterprise is where the profits are. I fully expect this rebirth of Apple as a serious competitor to the dominance of MS to be realised on the office desktop, it is clearly the direction that Apple will have to eventually take. I am in the office communications business and the thought of Apple entering this market excites me, i hope it happens and think in the next year or two it will.



    Please Please Please take the time to actually read Apple's financial statements. Apple is a Hardware vendor.
  • Reply 19 of 83
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    It's interesting that Windows Mobile isn't mentioned. A whole bunch of companies make those phones.



    Good point. If Chnagewave is fairly correct—and I think they are—it will be Windows Mobile that will suffer the most hit in overall marketshare from the upcoming Cupertino device.
  • Reply 20 of 83
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by physguy View Post


    Please Please Please take the time to actually read Apple's financial statements. Apple is a Hardware vendor.



    I really hate this argument. Apple is both a hardware and software vendor. They sell both. They make both. They do, as you are pointing out, make the bulk of their profits from their hardware offerings, but this doesn't not make the company any less of a vendor in software.
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