Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2008)

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  • Reply 881 of 2639
    guarthoguartho Posts: 1,208member
    Most people don't pay that much attention. The HD DVD prices are low enough now that they're in impulse-buy range for some people. Imagine you're J6P and you want one of those Blu HD DVD players. Oh, hey, this one says HD and it's only $150.



    I wish we could get numbers on returns.
  • Reply 882 of 2639
    banchobancho Posts: 1,517member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I can't believe people are buying them just because the prices are so low. I'd be very suspicious of a major, overnight price drop.



    While I agree that massive price cuts can trigger red flags in some people, it could be that the people buying already have an HD DVD player and see a great chance to get another for a good price. At the price some of them are currently selling at it wouldn't be such a bad idea to just replace an existing DVD player with a new upscaling one (even if you never plan to put an HD DVD disc in it).



    From JLL's post there was a lot more actual dollars spent on the Blu Ray side.
  • Reply 883 of 2639
    jlljll Posts: 2,713member
    It seems that if you want an HD DVD player you have to hurry:











    If you can find them:







  • Reply 884 of 2639
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    I agree with 'murch on this one. Blu-ray will have a tough time as digital streaming and downloading gets better. The large majority of the market has no real loyalty to any delivery format. People's loyalty is mostly to convenience. You may like to buy CD's. But looking at the number of music stores that are closing, clearly the majority of the market does not care about the CD.



    DVD still thrives because it offers the largest and most diverse collection of video media. The day is soon coming when from our couch we will download or stream the same amount of content that is currently available on DVD. When that day comes DVD sales will plummet. Blu-ray will not have had much of a chance.



    You know...I've been a digital download proponent all along and saying a pox on both their houses but I think the recent conversion of HD-DVD fans to my point of view are folks grasping at straws.



    Blu-Ray is indeed likely to be the last mass market disc format. Digital downloads ARE the future.



    However, some of the things I expected to happen is taking longer than I thought a year ago. WiMAX deployment will be delayed longer than I thought (yes, i was drinking a LITTLE kool-aid there). DOCSIS 3.0 deployment still slow anywhere there isn't FiOS. FiOS deployment going strong but it's only just Verizon and only in major markets. Too many FTTN vs FTTP deployments. IPTV is still somewhat sketchy (UVerse) as a result.



    And of course, HD on Demand (cable) still sucketh but sucketh less than in 2006 (as in works more or less all the time now as opposed to when the planets aligned). At least aTV has gone 720p but rental costs are too high. They are at VOD/PPV pricing. Which sucks. It needs to be a $1.99/$2.99 for DVD/HD IMHO.



    I also said that the window for Blu-Ray/HD-DVD was closing and if they didn't kill the war in after this XMas (2007) digital media had a shot at marginalizing them. They managed to do so (war's effectively over and will be VERY over by XMAs 2008). I think 2008 will see mass market adoption of Blu-Ray because digital downloads are still somewhat hampered outside of major metro areas served by the few RBOCs that went FTTP (fiber to the premesis/home) vs FTTN (fiber to a node pretty far from the house). Cable companies aren't afraid of AT&T/UVerse. They are afraid of Verizon/FiOS.



    FTTN is seriously limited in bandwidth and distance. At 3,000 feet from the node bandwidth limits are in the 30 mbps. Cable plants with DOCSIS 3.0 can beat that. BellSouth FTTC (fiber to the curb close to a house with copper the rest of the way) is about par with cable and much better for IPTV than FTTN buildouts (which, in a word: sucketh).



    Sony/Blu-Ray isn't fighting Apple/aTV or Microsoft/360...they're fighting RBOCs and Cable companies. Those guys are not what we'd call "very agile competitors". The "agile competitors" like WiMax got mugged by a reality check. I'm in a market that will be served by Xohm (Sprint WiMAX...what a dumb name) so we'll see if vapor becomes reality in 2008 (was planned for test launch by end of 2007....um...now May). I'm not a big fan of Sprint so I'm not holding my breath.
  • Reply 885 of 2639
    e1618978e1618978 Posts: 6,075member
    I'm in the market for a OTA digital TV tuner, and I noticed that some DVD players have them built in (I want to get access to American Idol without paying a monthly fee - my wife loves the show, and it is my only remaining tie to cable that I can't break by using iTunes instead).



    Is there a bargin HD-DVD player that includes one of these tuners? Maybe I will pick one up before they are all gone. HD-DVD disks should be pretty cheap on the used market as well.
  • Reply 886 of 2639
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post


    I'm in the market for a OTA digital TV tuner, and I noticed that some DVD players have them built in (I want to get access to American Idol without paying a monthly fee - my wife loves the show, and it is my only remaining tie to cable that I can't break by using iTunes instead).



    Is there a bargin HD-DVD player that includes one of these tuners? Maybe I will pick one up before they are all gone. HD-DVD disks should be pretty cheap on the used market as well.



    You're cheapest legal solution is to buy a PCI or USB TV Tuner for your computer. Your cheapest, though illegal, solution is to DL the show using torrents.
  • Reply 887 of 2639
    eckingecking Posts: 1,588member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    You know...I've been a digital download proponent all along and saying a pox on both their houses but I think the recent conversion of HD-DVD fans to my point of view are folks grasping at straws.



    Blu-Ray is indeed likely to be the last mass market disc format. Digital downloads ARE the future.



    However, some of the things I expected to happen is taking longer than I thought a year ago. WiMAX deployment will be delayed longer than I thought (yes, i was drinking a LITTLE kool-aid there). DOCSIS 3.0 deployment still slow anywhere there isn't FiOS. FiOS deployment going strong but it's only just Verizon and only in major markets. Too many FTTN vs FTTP deployments. IPTV is still somewhat sketchy (UVerse) as a result.



    And of course, HD on Demand (cable) still sucketh but sucketh less than in 2006 (as in works more or less all the time now as opposed to when the planets aligned). At least aTV has gone 720p but rental costs are too high. They are at VOD/PPV pricing. Which sucks. It needs to be a $1.99/$2.99 for DVD/HD IMHO.



    I also said that the window for Blu-Ray/HD-DVD was closing and if they didn't kill the war in after this XMas (2007) digital media had a shot at marginalizing them. They managed to do so (war's effectively over and will be VERY over by XMAs 2008). I think 2008 will see mass market adoption of Blu-Ray because digital downloads are still somewhat hampered outside of major metro areas served by the few RBOCs that went FTTP (fiber to the premesis/home) vs FTTN (fiber to a node pretty far from the house). Cable companies aren't afraid of AT&T/UVerse. They are afraid of Verizon/FiOS.



    FTTN is seriously limited in bandwidth and distance. At 3,000 feet from the node bandwidth limits are in the 30 mbps. Cable plants with DOCSIS 3.0 can beat that. BellSouth FTTC (fiber to the curb close to a house with copper the rest of the way) is about par with cable and much better for IPTV than FTTN buildouts (which, in a word: sucketh).



    Sony/Blu-Ray isn't fighting Apple/aTV or Microsoft/360...they're fighting RBOCs and Cable companies. Those guys are not what we'd call "very agile competitors". The "agile competitors" like WiMax got mugged by a reality check. I'm in a market that will be served by Xohm (Sprint WiMAX...what a dumb name) so we'll see if vapor becomes reality in 2008 (was planned for test launch by end of 2007....um...now May). I'm not a big fan of Sprint so I'm not holding my breath.





    The thing is you're not wrong, they are the future, the future just isn't now. I'm not trying to make some kind of consipiracy here but it would make sense for studios and other companies to be purposefully stifling downloads in favour of optical disks.



    A perfect world for mewould be to download digitally and be able able to back up to disk for archiving, legally of course (the other one is already available now).
  • Reply 888 of 2639
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JLL View Post


    From the week ending January 19:



    Blu-ray players - 16,496

    HD DVD players - 8,639



    And in dollars spend:

    Blu-ray - $6,033,540

    HD DVD - $1,182,248



    This was the first full week with the new low prices on Toshiba players.



    Just to clear up the playing field, what proportion make up for the independent purchases and how many were the give away with HDTV purchases?



    Since the last stats, it's hard to get a honest figure. I'm not saying free give aways don't count. If Blu-ray supporters can give away 20k units a week, that would definitely help with the HDM.
  • Reply 889 of 2639
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JLL View Post


    It seems that if you want an HD DVD player you have to hurry:







    The clearance on 3rd gen HD-DVD players is because the new packaging removes Warner "300" as free movie included in box. They're replacing "300" with another Bourne series.
  • Reply 890 of 2639
    cory bauercory bauer Posts: 1,286member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    Weren't you one of the folks saying PS3 sales didn't matter? having it both ways again?



    How could they not matter? Blu-Ray is almost entirely a PS3 movie format, so of course PS3 sales matter. Should every single PS3 sale be counted as a Blu-Ray user? No, because only about half of them buy Blu-Ray movies (based on those studies conducted and weekly disc sales).
  • Reply 891 of 2639
    Meh. I hope Blue Ray wins. It should bump this thread when it does.



    It doesn't look good for HD DVD right now. Serves it right for M$ backing it.



    Lemon BOn BOn.
  • Reply 892 of 2639
    JLL I really did have to laugh at those pics



    It reminded me of the Simpsons episode where Bart meets up with an old movie cowboy, and Bart asks "whats this?"

    "oh thats a lunch box, back then they were made of this stuff called "Metal" I don't suppose you've heard of it"

    Bart looks at the metal lunch box and says "MEH-TAAL"



    I could see the HD-DVD worshipers looking at those pics and saying "CLEE-RAANCE"



    funny
  • Reply 893 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    JLL I really did have to laugh at those pics



    It reminded me of the Simpsons episode where Bart meets up with an old movie cowboy, and Bart asks "whats this?"

    "oh thats a lunch box, back then they were made of this stuff called "Metal" I don't suppose you've heard of it"

    Bart looks at the metal lunch box and says "MEH-TAAL"



    I could see the HD-DVD worshipers looking at those pics and saying "CLEE-RAANCE"



    funny



    I don't see the humor. This is a frustrating time for a consumer who wants to enjoy HD films. On the one hand, the reasonably-priced and feature-complete disc format is on it's death bed, so you shouldn't buy that one. And on the other hand, players for the surviving format are neither feature-complete or well-priced. Quite frankly, this whole situation sucks for movie-buyers.
  • Reply 894 of 2639
    hmurchisonhmurchison Posts: 12,425member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post


    I don't see the humor. This is a frustrating time for a consumer who wants to enjoy HD films. On the one hand, the reasonably-priced and feature-complete disc format is on it's death bed, so you shouldn't buy that one. And on the other hand, players for the surviving format are neither feature-complete or well-priced. Quite frankly, this whole situation sucks for movie-buyers.



    I don't see the humor either. Both of these formats have effectively SACD/DVD Audio'd consumers again.



    1. Trying to cram expensive movies down consumer throats.

    2. Requires potentially expensive infrastructure (HDTV, surround sound)



    Frankly I'm not buying the whole schtick that "Now that HD DVD is dead Blu-ray can now become the next DVD"



    Look at the Perfect Storm coming this year.



    Vudu is shipping

    Netflix is powering forward

    Fios TV, faster Cable with VOD, Uverse

    Apple HD downloads via Apple TV.



    All DVD had to do was beat out the horrible debacle that was Divx. It was the natural evolution of video. Consumers saw the Philips Cassette give way to CD and so they understand the lineage...now VHS was giving way to DVD.



    Blu-ray has more stout competition. Anyone with good web access doesn't have to burn gas getting to the local video store.



    Because I like being part of the niche I'll buy a Blu-ray player. I love movies and I'll like the "Extras". However if people think that trying to slight 720p downloads is going to work for the masses I implore you to walk into a Best Buy or whatever and look at the current 720p Plasma at 42" available from $1000-$1300



    Next year a decent Plasma with damn good black levels will be $999 and frankly the 720p video gives you %85 of the PQ (my guess) of 1080p at screen sizes below 50". I have no problems with 720p downloads and frankly I can see myself utilizing download services.



    I'm probably going to only start buying movies that I "know" I'll watch multiple times.
  • Reply 895 of 2639
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post


    I don't see the humor. This is a frustrating time for a consumer who wants to enjoy HD films. On the one hand, the reasonably-priced and feature-complete disc format is on it's death bed, so you shouldn't buy that one. And on the other hand, players for the surviving format are neither feature-complete or well-priced. Quite frankly, this whole situation sucks for movie-buyers.



    Only for fanbois.



    The situation that sucked was two competing formats where they would either turn into failed niche formats or one would kill the other one off...which if you were on the losing side meant your collection just became obsolete.



    Given Warner's decision it could have gone EITHER way and frankly, I couldn't care less which won as long as one did. Your media collection will cost FAR more than your player over time and having the outcome in doubt "sucks for movie-buyers".



    What was frustrating was two formats. What is not frustrating is knowing who won.



    The temporary price difference is just that. Temporary.



    And NEITHER format was feature complete. Show me a HD-DVD player with Managed Copy...then show me that final AACS spec...
  • Reply 896 of 2639
    e1618978e1618978 Posts: 6,075member
    AppleTV and competitors are winning the "DVD rental replacement" market with their downloads. Blu-ray just won the "premium market" niche, which used to be owned by laserdisc and is much bigger now with widespread HDTV use, and the "own your own movies" niche, which will never be satisfied with downloads.



    The premium niche will eventually be replaced by 1080p downloads (and maybe 4k downloads after that), but there will always be people who want to own their libraries, and hard drives are too small and too unreliable. Probably purple-ray will be 4K video, and that will be the final video format for all time.
  • Reply 897 of 2639
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post


    Look at the Perfect Storm coming this year.



    LOL.



    Quote:

    Vudu is shipping



    With no high-def content yet.



    Quote:

    Netflix is powering forward



    Which will happily send you Blu-Ray discs cheaper than you can rent from either Apple or Vudu.



    Quote:

    Fios TV,



    Which is okay (the TV part...the data part has been great) but only in limited regions.



    Quote:

    faster Cable with VOD,



    Which is mostly found in the same regions as FiOS since FiOS is eating their lunch...



    Quote:

    Uverse



    Which unfortunately is stuck with FTTN and flakey performance when you're at the limit of the range for copper.



    Quote:

    Apple HD downloads via Apple TV.



    Which is great if you're in a FiOS or DOCSIS 3.0 area. But wait...if you're there you already have functioning HD on Demand.



    Quote:

    Because I like being part of the niche I'll buy a Blu-ray player. I love movies and I'll like the "Extras". However if people think that trying to slight 720p downloads is going to work for the masses I implore you to walk into a Best Buy or whatever and look at the current 720p Plasma at 42" available from $1000-$1300



    Nope. I think 720p is just great and most folks sit too far away to notice the difference between 720p and 1080p.



    On the other hand it really depends on the bitrate of the downloads. Just being 720p is only half the battle.



    Quote:

    I'm probably going to only start buying movies that I "know" I'll watch multiple times.



    Even then a $5 rental is likely to be cheaper over the lifetime of your collection.



    I have FiOS so I'm set. Comcast has been upgrading service in my area to stop the bleeding.



    However, that doesn't translate into Blu-Ray wont have mass market appeal. You guys are just sore losers to be jumping on the download bandwagon at this late date.
  • Reply 898 of 2639
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    There is hope for you HD DVD proponents...



    Sony Offers Blu-ray Rebate to German HD DVD Owners



    http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=901



    Quote:

    In the latest advertisement from German retailer Saturn, Sony is offering 150 Euros off the purchase of a Sony BDP-S300 when current HD DVD owners turn in their used players. This is an outstanding deal for those high definition fans in Germany who would otherwise have been left with a very expensive paperweight. Currently this offer is only available in Germany.



    Admittedly, the Sony BDP-S300 is more expensive in Germany at 499 Euros ($737), so this offer brings the player down to a more familiar price of around $500. Even so, I'm sure there are plenty of people in US who would love to take advantage of a similar deal. Unfortunately for them, HD DVD adoption is much higher in the US, meaning a similar plan here would cost Sony hundreds of millions of dollars to execute. In other words, don't hold your breath.



    I know it is just Germany and it probably won't be as high here, but again something like this for the disgruntled HD DVD owner is a nice peace offering and gets them back into the high-def optical game.
  • Reply 899 of 2639
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post


    AppleTV and competitors are winning the "DVD rental replacement" market with their downloads.



    Say what? It's STILL a $250 box you have to buy before you can use them (either aTV or Vudu) to rent movies at VOD/PPV pricing.



    For which you HAVE a $10/month HD DVR from your cable company that can already provide that service.



    Blu-Ray will not be as big as DVD IMHO because of some these reasons but larger than you imply than a "premium" market that is larger version of the old LD market.
  • Reply 900 of 2639
    frank777frank777 Posts: 5,839member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post


    There is hope for you HD DVD proponents...



    Sony Offers Blu-ray Rebate to German HD DVD Owners...



    Just for the record, I despise Sony's addiction to DRM, but I wouldn't expect them to offer rebates to HD-DVD buyers.



    We're all grown ups, and everyone knew that the better format doesn't necessarily win (especially when multi-billion dollar conglomerates are involved.)



    That said, I still don't see why anyone in their right mind would buy a new BR player until the new spec is out in October. This fall, just about everyone who's bought a dedicated HiDef player so far will be the owner a fairly obsolete machine.
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