Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2008)

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  • Reply 1741 of 2639
    frank777frank777 Posts: 5,839member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    blockbuster IS a rental business, not a retail one.



    for a moment i thought you were implying a comparison between the number of miles of shelf space in rental to the number of miles of shelf space in retail, i'd be fairly confident that retail shelf space BY MILE would win.



    That's true. I hadn't looked at it that way before.

    Walmart and Best Buy sales coupled with the higher shelf price would make DVD sales the more lucrative business.



    However it's still correct that the economies of scale generated by disc presses for the rental market doesn't translate to the HD market. Actually, if the rental business is that much smaller than the sales business, Apple TV may be able to occupy the space faster than I thought.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    dont forget that america does not equal the world.



    Of course not. Canada runs the world. Everyone knows that.
  • Reply 1742 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post


    As usual, you have two sides talking at each other, but neither is listening to the other's point.



    Point 1: The disc rental market is effectively over. The new rental fight is between AppleTV, Xbox 360 and new versions of Tivo, Vudu etc. There is no point in driving to a rental outlet and back (with gas prices where they are) when you can start a HD download while you make popcorn.



    ...



    Blu-Ray isn't dead by any means, but it will not be the overwhelming success that DVD was.



    Sorry Frank, rental is not dead nor will it be for a very long time, not when you have Blockbuster and Netflix via the internet, Blockbuster and Hollywood storefronts, and can rent discs in about every grocery store. IMO, Apple and MS are going to be players in a very small niche market of techies, eh.
  • Reply 1743 of 2639
    Careful with that age bit Vinea, broad generalizations usually aren't accurate. In fact a strong case could be made for the supposition that HDM isn't doing as well as it could because too many of the movies that have been released so far are meant for people who haven't progressed passed a 12-year-old maturity level.



    Anyway, I'm probably the oldest person posting in this thread and I currently have 31 BD titles. So much for generalizations.
  • Reply 1744 of 2639
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post


    Careful with that age bit Vinea, broad generalizations usually aren't accurate.



    Mkay, which age group do you believe drives change?



    Quote:

    In fact a strong case could be made for the supposition that HDM isn't doing as well as it could because too many of the movies that have been released so far are meant for people who haven't progressed passed a 12-year-old maturity level.



    I would like to see that "strong case".



    Quote:

    Anyway, I'm probably the oldest person posting in this thread and I currently have 31 BD titles. So much for generalizations.



    Generalizations are just that. General. Meaning that any given individual may or may not fit the generalization.



    Care to wager which age category is most heavily into new electronic toys? I'm guessing NOT the AARP set and lean toward the 18-24 male demographic. Note that I'm not in that demographic meaning I'm in the target sweet spot either.
  • Reply 1745 of 2639
    sequitursequitur Posts: 1,910member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post


    Sorry Frank, rental is not dead nor will it be for a very long time, not when you have Blockbuster and Netflix via the internet, Blockbuster and Hollywood storefronts, and can rent discs in about every grocery store. IMO, Apple and MS are going to be players in a very small niche market of techies, eh.



    A very large Hollywood store in my neighborhood just closed. Is that a harbinger of things to come?
  • Reply 1746 of 2639
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post


    Careful with that age bit Vinea, broad generalizations usually aren't accurate. In fact a strong case could be made for the supposition that HDM isn't doing as well as it could because too many of the movies that have been released so far are meant for people who haven't progressed passed a 12-year-old maturity level.



    Anyway, I'm probably the oldest person posting in this thread and I currently have 31 BD titles. So much for generalizations.



    haha... tha's what you get for supporting the game console format.



    kidding aside, the younger generation of ipod/neflix era will not appreciate the catalog titles as much as those movies based on the cartoon or comic books. Sadly enough, that ipod/nefix generation demographic may be the largest and most lucrative group to focus from the interest of the movie industries. Don't forget that over 90% of the blu-ray players are PS3 and movies like transformers or spiderman will make the PS3 demographic to buy the HDM even when they're watching it over S-Video connection to 20" TV or 32" LCD TV. This is far from having the ideal HT system, but who cares whether these dump kids will like the HDM version or not as long as they can't return it once opened. BTW, most of these kids will likely rent than buy them anyway.
  • Reply 1747 of 2639
    jimmacjimmac Posts: 11,898member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Mkay, which age group do you believe drives change?







    I would like to see that "strong case".







    Generalizations are just that. General. Meaning that any given individual may or may not fit the generalization.



    Care to wager which age category is most heavily into new electronic toys? I'm guessing NOT the AARP set and lean toward the 18-24 male demographic. Note that I'm not in that demographic meaning I'm in the target sweet spot either.





    " Mkay, which age group do you believe drives change? "



    The one with the most dollars and population!



    Guess who?
  • Reply 1748 of 2639
    jimmacjimmac Posts: 11,898member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post


    I don't, but judging by the floor space given to rentals over the for-sale product in outlets like Blockbuster, would that have to be the larger market? Retail floor space is really expensive.





    Except that BB is a rental store. I've never seen them have much in the way of selling. Other stores like Best Buy, Circuit City, Suncoast, and of course Amazon.com do that.



    Here you go :



    http://www.boston.com/news/local/art...y_the_numbers/



    " In 2005, consumers spent $24.3 billion buying and renting DVDs and VHS cassettes, far surpassing the $8.75 billion that moviegoers spent at the theater box office. Consumer spending on home video was essentially flat over 2004.



    Consumers spent $16.3 billion purchasing DVDs and videotapes in 2004, with DVDs representing 99 percent of the sales revenue.



    Video rental revenue totaled $7.8 billion in 2005, with 85 percent of the revenue coming from DVD rentals. It is estimated that 2.1 billion DVDs and 414 million VHS tapes were rented in 2005.



    Purchase of previously viewed DVDs and VHS titles was estimated at $1.1 billion in 2005. "



    The artiicle was from 2007 almost a year ago to the day ( March 18 2007 ).
  • Reply 1749 of 2639
    jimmacjimmac Posts: 11,898member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Mkay, which age group do you believe drives change?







    I would like to see that "strong case".







    Generalizations are just that. General. Meaning that any given individual may or may not fit the generalization.



    Care to wager which age category is most heavily into new electronic toys? I'm guessing NOT the AARP set and lean toward the 18-24 male demographic. Note that I'm not in that demographic meaning I'm in the target sweet spot either.





    I made my peace with you but it's clear you have some issues.



    From another post:



    " Old people don't drive change. You likely interact mostly with your peer group. "



    I work at a local college bozo so guess who I see alot of? Most of them seem more mature than you.



    And I'm sorry but the baby boomers ( you know most of the population ) drive the trends. Mainly because there's more of us and we're the ones who can afford this stuff.



    About the rest of your post. Well at this point mostly wishful thinking. Although I actually hope you're right and BR becomes a major player. But at this point we'll just have to sit back and see what they'll do.
  • Reply 1750 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post


    Actually, if the rental business is that much smaller than the sales business, Apple TV may be able to occupy the space faster than I thought.



    mmm.. pity Steve doesnt show it some more love, all I see are TV ads for the iPhone with zip for the aTV.





    Quote:

    Of course not. Canada runs the world. Everyone knows that.



    oh thats SO true!





    {Got it!}
  • Reply 1751 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post


    haha... tha's what you get for supporting the game console format.



    kidding aside, the younger generation of ipod/neflix era will not appreciate the catalog titles as much as those movies based on the cartoon or comic books. Sadly enough, that ipod/nefix generation demographic may be the largest and most lucrative group to focus from the interest of the movie industries. Don't forget that over 90% of the blu-ray players are PS3 and movies like transformers or spiderman will make the PS3 demographic to buy the HDM even when they're watching it over S-Video connection to 20" TV or 32" LCD TV. This is far from having the ideal HT system, but who cares whether these dump kids will like the HDM version or not as long as they can't return it once opened. BTW, most of these kids will likely rent than buy them anyway.



    WOW, you never cease to amaze!



    I guess you didn't read the bit about generalizations mm?



    oh yeah, weren't you the guy who blew their load over Transformers on HD-DVD?
  • Reply 1752 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jimmac View Post


    " Mkay, which age group do you believe drives change? "



    The one with the most dollars and population!



    Guess who?



    what the grey pound/dollar?



    I'm actually more inclined to follow bite (wow I'm shocking myself, but hey, its late) and ask who is it buying the players? mostly the PS3? mostly gamers? made up of mostly in the 18-24 young male demographic that Vinea mentioned above?



    OK so gamers have grown older and that demographic of mature gamers IMO reaches up to the 24-34 range, still isn't the grey dollar/pound that you really seem to want it to be



    It doesnt really matter if the grey dollar outnumbers the young male dollar, because it would seem "as a generalization" ONLY the young male dollar has bought into the PS3. the grey dollar isn't touching it {present company excepted, whoever you might be } so no matter

    by how much grey dollar outnumbers YM dollar, YM dollar is the influencing factor SO FAR.





    --



    Jim

    your a Taurus, and they more often than not can be argumentative to the point of blindness sometimes, So I dont think its an age thing funny a certain Hmurchinson was also a Taurus, also bullishly argumentative despite being more often than not a lone voice, listening to no-ones reason but his own.



    Is it just me or is the similarity too great to go unnoticed ?
  • Reply 1753 of 2639
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    what the grey pound/dollar?



    I'm actually more inclined to follow bite (wow I'm shocking myself, but hey, its late) and ask who is it buying the players? mostly the PS3? mostly gamers? made up of mostly in the 18-24 young male demographic that Vinea mentioned above?



    OK so gamers have grown older and that demographic of mature gamers IMO reaches up to the 24-34 range, still isn't the grey dollar/pound that you really seem to want it to be



    It doesnt really matter if the grey dollar outnumbers the young male dollar, because it would seem "as a generalization" ONLY the young male dollar has bought into the PS3. the grey dollar isn't touching it {present company excepted, whoever you might be } so no matter

    by how much grey dollar outnumbers YM dollar, YM dollar is the influencing factor SO FAR.




    Are you really this stupid in real life?



    Your so called grey dollar may have a notceable impact in a super niche HDM market, but it's not even going to put a dent in the mass scale market. Get a clue! So, you think these PS3 kids will grow up eventually and become a front running HDM supporters or avid gamers?
  • Reply 1754 of 2639
    galleygalley Posts: 971member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ecking View Post


    20 titles this early is easily what most people people would see as being heavily invested.



    There's folks on a forum (that will remain nameless) that have hundreds of BDs. They'll buy pretty much anything.
  • Reply 1755 of 2639
    glossgloss Posts: 506member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Galley View Post


    There's folks on a forum (that will remain nameless) that have hundreds of BDs. They'll buy pretty much anything.



    I'd say you're about as heavily invested as can be expected provided that you have any taste whatsoever.
  • Reply 1756 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post


    Are you really this stupid in real life?



    Your so called grey dollar may have a notceable impact in a super niche HDM market, but it's not even going to put a dent in the mass scale market. Get a clue! So, you think these PS3 kids will grow up eventually and become a front running HDM supporters or avid gamers?



    RE-read it might help your comprehension.



    oh, and please don't allude to calling me stupid, its not very polite.
  • Reply 1757 of 2639
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jimmac View Post


    I made my peace with you but it's clear you have some issues.



    From another post:



    " Old people don't drive change. You likely interact mostly with your peer group. "



    I work at a local college bozo so guess who I see alot of? Most of them seem more mature than you.



    And I'm sorry but the baby boomers ( you know most of the population ) drive the trends. Mainly because there's more of us and we're the ones who can afford this stuff.



    About the rest of your post. Well at this point mostly wishful thinking. Although I actually hope you're right and BR becomes a major player. But at this point we'll just have to sit back and see what they'll do.



    Boomers may be the largest age demographic but they do not drive change because the old people are pretty set in their ways. Want to guess the iPod market penetration rate among boomers vs 18-24? Also boomers are NOT most of the population at 78.2 M out of 300 M...unless it's "new" math.



    Want to study the market penetration of texting vs email in the 55+ demographic vs the 18-24 demographic? What technique is driving change in collaboration today? Email or texting?



    You can work at a local college but that doesn't mean you actually interact with students as a peer group. Very few old folks really can do that effectively.



    And way to go avoiding data (not wishful thinking) that completely debunks your assertion that DVD is too young to get replaced and format replacement cycles appear to trend to that 10-15 year cycle.



    But hey, far be it for me to try to change a fundamental boomer trait: the absolute conviction that the world revolves around them. Oh, and my kids thank you for the crushing debt they will inherit from your excesses and inability to plan for any future but your own.
  • Reply 1758 of 2639
    jimmacjimmac Posts: 11,898member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Boomers may be the largest age demographic but they do not drive change because the old people are pretty set in their ways. Want to guess the iPod market penetration rate among boomers vs 18-24? Also boomers are NOT most of the population at 78.2 M out of 300 M...unless it's "new" math.



    Want to study the market penetration of texting vs email in the 55+ demographic vs the 18-24 demographic? What technique is driving change in collaboration today? Email or texting?



    You can work at a local college but that doesn't mean you actually interact with students as a peer group. Very few old folks really can do that effectively.



    And way to go avoiding data (not wishful thinking) that completely debunks your assertion that DVD is too young to get replaced and format replacement cycles appear to trend to that 10-15 year cycle.



    But hey, far be it for me to try to change a fundamental boomer trait: the absolute conviction that the world revolves around them. Oh, and my kids thank you for the crushing debt they will inherit from your excesses and inability to plan for any future but your own.



    Do you even have kids? If so I'm hoping you taught them better manners and how to have an open mind. Objectivity isn't on your top ten.



    I just pulled this out of a search ( didn't have long to do this as I have to go to work ).



    http://www.seniorjournal.com/NEWS/Bo...rtsPredict.htm



    And



    http://hiring.monster.com/resourcece...etirement.aspx



    I didn't even have to search long to find this. I'm sure if given time I can find even more telling examples.



    As you can see just from this it's the dollars. We're still the big part of the workforce ( with the dollars ). That won't change in a big way until the bulk of us are gone ( say 18 to 20 years ). By then of course you'll already be getting old ( you gotta love the irony as it goes much faster than you think ). You might want your ipod but daddy's got to buy it.



    There's nothing wrong with being young ( I was there once myself ). But there is with being cocky and insulting. Two different things.



    Now if we're done with this sillyness can we get back to the topic?
  • Reply 1759 of 2639
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jimmac View Post


    Do you even have kids? If so I'm hoping you taught them better manners and how to have an open mind. Objectivity isn't on your top ten.



    Like your objectivity when you ignore data that doesn't fit your world view?



    Also, I didn't disagree that boomers were the largest demographic with a lot of money.



    What I said is that they don't drive CHANGE. Largest demographic with the most money may simply represent INERTIA rather than change. Just because marketers want your money doesn't mean that boomers are the drivers for innovation and change as opposed to stagnation.



    If the age cohort with the most political and economic power is also the most conservative then it will be an innovation inhibitor rather than a source of innovation.



    While there are innovators still in your age cohort (Jobs is one prime example) look at some of the drivers of technology innovation today:



    Larry Page (Google), Sergey Brin (Google), Jerry Yan (Yahoo), David Filo (Yahoo), Stewart Butterfield (Flickr), Caterina Fake (Flickr), Tom Anderson (MySpace), Chad Hurley (YouTube), Mark Zukerberg (Facebook).



    Also note that there are around 80M Millenials. These folks are the future. They will be the next drivers of change. You folks are the past.



    Quote:

    Now if we're done with this sillyness can we get back to the topic?



    You want to get back on topic you can address the data that says that format changes seem to occur in 10-15 year intervals and why you think DVD is too young at 12 years for replacement by BR.



    You can admit you were wrong or find supporting data for your position. Otherwise you've simply shown your own lack of objectivity and maturity.



    Personally, I think you just pulled BS out of thin air and been harping on this age thing to avoid owning up to it.
  • Reply 1760 of 2639
    jimmacjimmac Posts: 11,898member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Like your objectivity when you ignore data that doesn't fit your world view?



    Also, I didn't disagree that boomers were the largest demographic with a lot of money.



    What I said is that they don't drive CHANGE. Largest demographic with the most money may simply represent INERTIA rather than change. Just because marketers want your money doesn't mean that boomers are the drivers for innovation and change as opposed to stagnation.



    If the age cohort with the most political and economic power is also the most conservative then it will be an innovation inhibitor rather than a source of innovation.



    While there are innovators still in your age cohort (Jobs is one prime example) look at some of the drivers of technology innovation today:



    Larry Page (Google), Sergey Brin (Google), Jerry Yan (Yahoo), David Filo (Yahoo), Stewart Butterfield (Flickr), Caterina Fake (Flickr), Tom Anderson (MySpace), Chad Hurley (YouTube), Mark Zukerberg (Facebook).



    Also note that there are around 80M Millenials. These folks are the future. They will be the next drivers of change. You folks are the past.







    You want to get back on topic you can address the data that says that format changes seem to occur in 10-15 year intervals and why you think DVD is too young at 12 years for replacement by BR.



    You can admit you were wrong or find supporting data for your position. Otherwise you've simply shown your own lack of objectivity and maturity.



    Personally, I think you just pulled BS out of thin air and been harping on this age thing to avoid owning up to it.





    Well sonny if you want to live in your dream world ( where you obviously feel insecure about your age ) so be it. However we're not the past yet and by the time we are you'll be in the same boat. That's the funny part. I'll be looking at specific data if you want however I think it's a waste of my time as you don't listen to anyone but yourself. And where the hell did you get data that supports the idea that formats change every 10 to 15 years?



    Links please.
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