Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2008)

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  • Reply 1941 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post


    It would be nice if the same stats can be applied when looking at top 30 or even 50 ranking. When a decent sample size can be monitored, in the size of at least top 100, the HDM proportion will shrink even further. I'd be surprised if the HDM volume can make up even 3% when looking at the representable sample size. However, if 8% is truly representable value against DVD sales, then it's either a huge progress for the HDM market or the indication of shrinking DVD market, or both?



    Assuming the same number of movies bought per week as a constant, why wouldn't it be both?
  • Reply 1942 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jimmac View Post


    Ok here we are at the heart of the matter. What if your friend doesn't have Apple TV or an iPod? Are you assuming everyone will in the future?



    Also You'll remember I said without propriatary equipment It's like you're trying to build your case on the idea that everyone will have Apple equipment.



    Look everyone will have a TV and a physical media player ( like a DVD player ) in common. So Gotcha!



    Is this you being a troll or just not arguing very well? because these two things sound very contradictory.



    You assume that everyone will have a DVD player, but NOT an iPod/aTV why is that?



    because not everyone has an iPod/aTV at the moment?



    well not everyone had a DVD player 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago, in fact I have friends who STILL don't have a DVD player (but are considering an iPod) you seem to fail to notice the progress POSSIBLE in one format, that has already happened in another format. THIS is the whole basis on which you make your erroneous arguments.
  • Reply 1943 of 2639
    bitemymacbitemymac Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    Assuming the same number of movies bought per week as a constant, why wouldn't it be both?



    Is this a real question or a hypothetical one? Assuming anything to be constant would be foolish.
  • Reply 1944 of 2639
    jimmacjimmac Posts: 11,898member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    Is this you being a troll or just not arguing very well? because these two things sound very contradictory.



    You assume that everyone will have a DVD player, but NOT an iPod/aTV why is that?



    because not everyone has an iPod/aTV at the moment?



    well not everyone had a DVD player 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago, in fact I have friends who STILL don't have a DVD player (but are considering an iPod) you seem to fail to notice the progress POSSIBLE in one format, that has already happened in another format. THIS is the whole basis on which you make your erroneous arguments.



    Walter this you just being obtuse.



    Everyone ( as far as talking about the masses ) has a DVD player now.



    It's the prefered medium of choice right now.



    Alot more than have an iPod. This is not a slam. It's just a simple truth. Quit being so sensitive.



    Progress is possible but to expect everyone ( meaning mainstream ) will have Apple equipment is just not a reasonable expectation.



    I like Apple and they make some of the most innovative quality stuff on the planet.



    They just aren't as ubiquitous as some things like the DVD player.
  • Reply 1945 of 2639
    cory bauercory bauer Posts: 1,286member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by onlooker View Post


    Nicely done. In a week with crap movies available they gained 2%. I'm sure it will fluctuate, but it's a stepping stone towards the inevitable. The inevitable that so many are still denying. Just like they were when HD-DVD was dead.



    And I suppose because of Apple's significant market share gains in the past few years, they will inevitably reach 100% dominance as well?



    It's great to see Blu-Ray catching on and picking up speed. But it seems the only one in denial about possible outcomes for the Blu-Ray format is you sir. Yes, Blu-Ray could very well become a long-term successor to DVD. But I believe it's equally as possible that the format never breaks 25% marketshare, due to the mechanical and physical requirements that must be met for the viewer to appreciate the improvements from regular DVD.
  • Reply 1946 of 2639
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,503member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post


    Nielsen/VideoScan Numbers ending March 30th



    http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...0608/index.php



    WE: BD-84% HDD-16% YTD: BD---% HDD---% SI: BD-67% HDD-33%











    Notice we gained on DVD 2%! At this rate, Blu-ray will have 80% marketshare by the end of the year over DVD! I know, I know higly unlikely, but that is the current rate!



    DVD will not be ousted until BluRay can bring down it's combo players to < $100 and it's burners < $150.



    Even then, it won't be the defacto until the burners are below $75.
  • Reply 1947 of 2639
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jimmac View Post


    " And iTunes (on a laptop) provides streaming to a friend's aTV when you visit. In the future, with more powerful iPod touches they'll be able to do the same. "



    Ok here we are at the heart of the matter. What if your friend doesn't have Apple TV or an iPod? Are you assuming everyone will in the future?



    No, I do not assume everyone has one in order for HD downloads to become mainstream.



    Quote:

    Also You'll remember I said without propriatary equipment It's like you're trying to build your case on the idea that everyone will have Apple equipment.



    Look everyone will have a TV and a physical media player ( like a DVD player ) in common. So Gotcha!



    Not a gotcha because you make an incorrect assumption. See below.



    Quote:

    " But not insurmountable since there ARE already HD digital download rentals. The anti-piracy protection on the rental are sufficiently secure for the studios or they never would have released those titles. "



    Sigh ( again )!



    That's the beauty of renting for these studios. When all you're doing is renting there's no need to transfer this to anything so you can play this ( or loan this ) on your friend's TV ( without Apple TV or an iPod because he never got into those ). You're building your case on the idea that everyone will buy Apple equipment which much as I like Apple we know that's not very likely to happen. However everyone will have a TV and physical media player in common ( like the DVD or BR ).



    The point, which you continue to fail to grasp, is that the DRM for HD rentals MUST BE at least as secure as the DRM for a HD sale. OR you end up with pirated 720p rental movies all over the internet.



    Computers are mainstream devices. Kids watch movies on computers all the time. Ever hear of this thing called YouTube, Limewire and Torrent? Illegal downloads for even movies on or before opening day are available.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jimmac View Post


    Walter this you just being obtuse.



    That's like the pot calling the freshly fallen clean snow black.



    Quote:

    Everyone ( as far as talking about the masses ) has a DVD player now.



    It's the prefered medium of choice right now.



    Alot more than have an iPod. This is not a slam. It's just a simple truth. Quit being so sensitive.



    Progress is possible but to expect everyone ( meaning mainstream ) will have Apple equipment is just not a reasonable expectation.



    I like Apple and they make some of the most innovative quality stuff on the planet.



    They just aren't as ubiquitous as some things like the DVD player.



    Okay, here are some simple questions to lead you to water.



    Question: Is the iPod a mainstream device?



    Answer: Yes, the iPod is a mainstream device. It sells to many demographics and has a relatively high market penetration (about 30%)



    Question: Does everyone own an iPod?



    Answer: No, obviously the majority of folks do not, however it is not a requirement that market penetration be 100% to be mainstream. In fact, you do not need DVD player level of penetration (80%) to be mainstream. HDTV are considered entering the mainstream because a third of non-HD housholds are considering buying a HD set in the next six months.



    Question: Does the iPod generate sufficient downloads that iTunes is the #2 retailer of music?



    Answer: Yes. This does not mean that Apple actually sells a large percentage of music in comparison with CDs but the number of sales is sufficient that Apple outsells large retailers of music on CDs.



    Question: Does this imply that digital downloads are used more than CDs?



    Answer: No. Obviously, the vast majority of music sold is still on media. 5-6% or so are iTunes sales (2007 numbers...likely a bit higher now).



    However, it is not a requirement that iTunes downloads replace CDs as a medium to become mainstream as it obviously is given it's #2 status.



    Question: Can Apple sell millions of video iPod "HD"s and aTVs to consumers replicating the penetration as the music iPod?



    Answer: Yes, it does not seem impossible for Apple to achieve 25-30% market share for its video devices given the large market penetraion of the iPod and the success of the iPhone and the iPod Touch. If Apple cannot, then someone else may.



    Microsoft certainly wants to try. They have sold millions of XBox 360. 41% of all TV households have a game console. If the 360 can take a significant share of the market then you instantly have a mainstream vehicle for HD downloads (sales).



    Question: Can Apple become a major retailer of HD movies if they can sell millions of iPod HDs and Apple TVs?



    Answer: Given that they managed to do so for music, this is not outside the realm of the possibility. The probability is quite high if they manage to sell millions of iPod HDs and Apple TVs. That's the big "if" but again, Microsoft has sold millions of XBox 360s.



    Question: So can HD downloads (sales) become mainstream EVEN IF Blu-Ray is wildly successful AND Apple (or Microsoft...brrr) doesn't sell more iPod HD's and aTVs than they have iPods?



    Answer: Yes. Because iTunes downloads are mainstream while co-existing with CDs for which everyone owns a player. Just like in your repeated incorrect DVD example.



    Drink deeply.
  • Reply 1948 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Okay, here are some simple questions to lead you to water.



    ...



    Drink deeply.



    Difficult to see anyone arguing with that step by step approach, but I'm sure the obfuscation-meister will take a stab. or take it off topic, or claim its it off the original-original topic/point/argument or the time honoured "IM RIGHT SO THERE" .. of course variations and combinations on all these are probable also. after all ANYTHING to avoid actually listening to a point of view that is valid and taking it on board in order to adjust ones own stance.



    There are of course the rumour/rumblings about Sony eventually going the movie download route on the PS3 which is the only console with a built in HD AS STANDARD. and the TV recorder add-on that(s) is/will be available in Europe, which is NOT a download service, but WILL encourage users to consider TV content on the device.



    It's an interesting time for Sony.



    However I'm not sure they are as focused as they should be (but getting better) and certainly not as focused as Apple.
  • Reply 1949 of 2639
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post


    And I suppose because of Apple's significant market share gains in the past few years, they will inevitably reach 100% dominance as well?



    It's great to see Blu-Ray catching on and picking up speed. But it seems the only one in denial about possible outcomes for the Blu-Ray format is you sir. Yes, Blu-Ray could very well become a long-term successor to DVD. But I believe it's equally as possible that the format never breaks 25% marketshare, due to the mechanical and physical requirements that must be met for the viewer to appreciate the improvements from regular DVD.



    Well, considering the according to this article, Blu-ray already has 20% marketshare, I think 25% prognostication is a wee bit conservative...



    Sony aims for 50% Blu-ray market share by year end



    http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/Sony-ai...-year-end.html



    Quote:

    The Blu-ray disc format has so far reached a 20% market share, with DVD accounting for the remaining 80% according to this DigiTimes Systems report. With the recent growth in Blu-ray disc sales following the fall of HD DVD, Sony president and Electronics CEO Ryoji Chubachi said that Sony now aims to achieve a 50% global market share for Blu-ray products by the end of 2008.



    To help push the Blu-ray format, Sony will improve its range of Blu-ray Disc products and price ranges, such as introducing HDTV sets with integrated Blu-ray Disc recording support. Up until now, Blu-ray's success has been mainly the result of the PlayStation 3 game console, since each console doubles up as a Blu-ray disc player. The sales of the PS3 are also expected to increase, which will also help improve Blu-ray's market share.



    As Microsoft reckons that HD video on demand will eventually take over disc based movies, it will be interesting to see how the market share will end up between Blu-ray, DVD and VOD by the end of the year. So far, Microsoft has denied every rumour of upcoming Blu-ray drives for the Xbox 360 saying that it has always planned to change over to the distribution of content online over the lifetime of the Xbox 360.



    Honestly, I don't think it is 20% right now...that number may need to be looked into deeper, but I think it is feasible they (Blu-ray) can capture maybe 35-40% of the market by year's end.



    We'll see. But here's another article saying Blu-ray has 20% marketshare compared to DVD...



    Sony looks to 50% Blu-ray share, Blu in HDTVs



    http://www.electronista.com/articles....market.share/



    Quote:

    Sony will increase the amount of products with Blu-ray Disc functionality in an effort to up global market share of the HD technology to 50% in 2008. To help achieve this, Sony will focus on promoting Blu-ray in its IT offerings such as personal computers and laptops, said Sony president and Electronics CEO Ryoji Chubachi at a press event in Taipei last Thursday. Blu-ray's current movie disc market share is 20%, with the remaining 80% still belonging to traditional DVD. Sony will also unveil more home theater oriented electronics that integrate Blu-ray, with Chubachi noting a combination HD LCD TV with a built-in Blu-ray recorder will soon hit the market. No details were given as to the nature of the future set or its release date apart from the inclusion of the drive.



    The Japanese electronics giant has relied heavily on its PlayStation 3 gaming system to promote its high-definition format, and the game console remains the only one with HD disc playback capability. The console is upgradeable via downloadable software updates that aim to enhance its usefulness as a Blu-ray device. This, along with new movie titles released by Hollywood, will continue to push sales of the game console, Chubachi noted.



    With the demise of HD DVD earlier this year, only traditional DVDs remain as the physical movie format competitor to Blu-ray.



  • Reply 1950 of 2639
    marzetta7marzetta7 Posts: 1,323member
    This will help with market awareness...



    Blockbuster Going Blu-ray in US and Canada



    http://www.themanroom.com/news/Block...nd_Canada/2406



    Quote:

    Blockbuster has announced all of its corporate stores in both the United States and Canada will be renting and selling Blu-ray Discs this year. Select domestic franchise locations will do the same.



    Raising consumer awareness of Blu-ray and PS3 as a player will be aided by new Blu-ray kiosks positioned in the center of each corporate store. The kiosk will feature a 42" high-def TV playing Blu-ray films via a Playstation 3 console.



    No precise timetable has been given for the roll out of Blu-ray and the accompanying kiosks in stores not already carrying the format, but we'd expect to see them before the busy fall season.



    This announcement coincides with a new feature added to Blockbuster.com this week that allows members to select Blu-ray as a preference. By doing so, all films they receive will automatically come in Blu-ray if that version is available.



    Granted, we all know that Blockbuster supported Blu-ray for a while, but to my understanding it was only in a limited number of stores. Now that Blu-ray will be seen everywhere in every Blockbuster store, the format will definitely get a boost in marketshare with this alone.
  • Reply 1951 of 2639
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by audiopollution View Post


    Why is this thread still going? \



    I'm considering starting a thread titled "Who will win the Civil War?'



    My money is on the North.



    What do you think?
  • Reply 1952 of 2639
    There's still one last vestige left from the format war and when that occurs then the fat lady has sung. I'm referring, of course, to Paramount and Universal officially announcing a release schedule. They will have to have some titles available for the Christmas buying season, hopefully sooner, perhaps by 1 July. One would expect Paramount would be first since they have BD experience, although there is a rumor that they'll continue to receive a payment from Microsoft up to until they actually release a BD title. If true, maybe they're accumulating catalog for a multi title debut release.
  • Reply 1953 of 2639
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post


    There are of course the rumour/rumblings about Sony eventually going the movie download route on the PS3 which is the only console with a built in HD AS STANDARD. and the TV recorder add-on that(s) is/will be available in Europe, which is NOT a download service, but WILL encourage users to consider TV content on the device.

    .



    I don't understand why they don't. It would be a very capable device and worthy competitor to the ATV. It would be more appealing in most respects actually.



    In five years I wouldn't be surprised at all if most video content is obtained via the internet for play on either an ATV, PS3(or successor) or x box. Netflix and BB look like toast to me.
  • Reply 1954 of 2639
    onlookeronlooker Posts: 5,252member
    The download service from the playstation store starts after the next firmware update sometime within the next few weeks.



    As cool as that sounds, I am not sold at all on the downloading route for numerous reasons. It's going to take up a lot hard-drive space on my PS3, and the more movies you buy the worse it gets. I'm an avid believer in the disc approach. Another reason I'm glad Sony had Blu Ray on the thing from inception.
  • Reply 1955 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by onlooker View Post


    The download service from the playstation store starts after the next firmware update sometime within the next few weeks.



    As cool as that sounds, I am not sold at all on the downloading route for numerous reasons. It's going to take up a lot hard-drive space on my PS3, and the more movies you buy the worse it gets. I'm an avid believer in the disc approach. Another reason I'm glad Sony had Blu Ray on the thing from inception.



    The store will be updated by the 17th. And Sony isn't going to be selling movies from the store just yet, unless you've read an article that I haven't?

    And I'm with you on being pro-disc.
  • Reply 1956 of 2639
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by onlooker View Post


    The download service from the playstation store starts after the next firmware update sometime within the next few weeks.



    As cool as that sounds, I am not sold at all on the downloading route for numerous reasons. It's going to take up a lot hard-drive space on my PS3, and the more movies you buy the worse it gets. I'm an avid believer in the disc approach. Another reason I'm glad Sony had Blu Ray on the thing from inception.



    Can't you add an external HDD to the PS3? I thought you could via the usb port.



    The advantage the PS3 has IMO, is the ability to do DVDs, BD movies and downloadable media. The ATV can't do that and with the HD DVD format loosing that's now a meaningless feature on the x box platform.



    The PS3 is as likely to take over the living room as the ATV IMO.
  • Reply 1957 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    Can't you add an external HDD to the PS3? I thought you could via the usb port.



    The advantage the PS3 has IMO, is the ability to do DVDs, BD movies and downloadable media. The ATV can't do that and with the HD DVD format loosing that's now a meaningless feature on the x box platform.



    The PS3 is as likely to take over the living room as the ATV IMO.



    And I for one hope it does. Yes, you can add an external HDD.



    You can also swap the internal drive for ANY 2.5" SATA drive, so you can stack on a lot of space there as well.
  • Reply 1958 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    I don't understand why they don't. It would be a very capable device and worthy competitor to the ATV. It would be more appealing in most respects actually.



    In five years I wouldn't be surprised at all if most video content is obtained via the internet for play on either an ATV, PS3(or successor) or x box. Netflix and BB look like toast to me.



    I don't understand why they don't either (is that a double negative? ) but then I think with all the firings that went on a while back, particularly crazy Ken, that something has indeed been "lost in translation" I'm sure it WILL surface, its just a matter of when, but for Sony it should be sooner rather than later IMO.



    any delay though, is likely to be due to the current Rebrand/awareness PR getting the PS3 name out there to fence sitter gamers that the PS3 DOES indeed HAVE games, pushing out a movie download service would likely throw off potential purchasers. at least thats what I'd imagine their thinking to be.
  • Reply 1959 of 2639
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by onlooker View Post


    The download service from the playstation store starts after the next firmware update sometime within the next few weeks.



    As cool as that sounds, I am not sold at all on the downloading route for numerous reasons. It's going to take up a lot hard-drive space on my PS3, and the more movies you buy the worse it gets. I'm an avid believer in the disc approach. Another reason I'm glad Sony had Blu Ray on the thing from inception.



    I don't think we were talking about BUYING, Rental takes up minimal space in comparison to actually buying

    and as said, adding a HDD (USB/SATA) is a piece of piss.
  • Reply 1960 of 2639
    cory bauercory bauer Posts: 1,286member
    Whoopsie, Blu-Ray is back to 4% of the DVD Pie, while Red is back to 36% of the HDM market.
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