I think that you missed the point entirely. I live in the heart of AT&T country. In my state, we have two cities with 3G coverage by AT&T. Sure, the company is working like a Trojan to expand its 3G coverage. However, it was not nearly there when the iPhone was introduced. It is not there now. It won't be there for quite a while yet.
Whine if you want about what other people have in other places. The fact is that 3G coverage worldwide is not nearly pervasive as people like you would have us believe. Just like in the US, it is spotty to non-existent in many areas. It is all good and fine that Japan is moving beyond 3G. However, the iPhone is not yet in Japan and neither are either of us.
3G will fall back to Edge if you have no 3G coverage so essentially it doesn't matter if the coverage is there or not. Apple can easily release a 3G phone now, and if you have coverage or not the worst that can happen is your Phone will have the same Edge coverage, but in ideal circumstances you get 3G.
IMO. Apple will release a 3G iPhone. They may not do it at a pre scheduled event like MacWorld, but they might.
That's about it outside of bug fixes and optimizations. It hasn't been slow, it's been glacial. They've got a lot, and I'm mean a lot, of work still left to do for the iPhone, and they can't staff up quick enough.
Based on what yard stick does the iPhone still have a lot of work? At nearly 2.5 million units sold its the best selling phone at its price point.
I think iPhone 2 some are looking for at MW 2008 will be a major software update.
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There's definitely untold number of UI improvements left to do everywhere in the device. There's just a lot to do.
While I agree that the iPhone is not finished. Its leagues beyond most every other phone UI.
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IMO. Apple will release a 3G iPhone. They may not do it at a pre scheduled event like MacWorld, but they might.
Jobs has said several times that the iPhone will get 3G. Outside of a more storage I don't think Apple will change the hardware anytime soon. The longer they go with the current iPhone the more money they make from economy of scale. I wouldn't look for a new version until late 2008.
The next minor physical revision will be a 16GB version, while the next major revision will have 3G and GPS. They're probably waiting on a next gen battery for thta one.
The next minor physical revision will be a 16GB version, while the next major revision will have 3G and GPS. They're probably waiting on a next gen battery for thta one.
Video recording capabilities too.
I really want an iPhone this Christmas but I guess I'm going to wait until the 16GB storage upgrade.. which better be in March or ireland gets it.
That's only a software update away, well, suffice to say it's a software issue, not that it will ever be fixed.
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Originally Posted by buddha
I really want an iPhone this Christmas but I guess I'm going to wait until the 16GB storage upgrade.. which better be in March or Ireland gets it.
I'd say your right
I can't hold out, I'm going to get an 8GB shipped over to me by a friend to tied me over until the 16GB 3G version comes along. I'm saving a bunch by getting the American version anyhow. €325 all in, including a nice Tuffwrap case, and shipping. I shall be switching off Edge though, it's Wifi for me. Handy for Mail and Internet when in a hotspot, hotel, Airport, my house or any of my friends, cool phone too, besides I'm going to hack the crap out of it
Iphone 2 (3g version) will be announed in jan 08 and will be released Q4 08 to conincide with Nokias touch screen flagship model as well as SEs P5.
Um, if you're not trying to be funny, Apple will never do this. That is, announce a revision of an existing hardware product that'll be available 10 months later. I say this with absolute 100% confidence. They never announce products that'll produce a drop in sales of existing product lines. And iPhone sales fall into this category.
Even for new category products, the longest they've ever gone is 6 months with the iPhone. They went 4 months with the AppleTV. Of existing product lines, the longest I can think of was an announce 3 month delay in the iMac G5. They've gone 2 months with other product revision as well.
10 months is positively insane. I don't think any hardware maker has even done this, that is, announce a product revision almost a year ahead of time. I have to go back check when the time lines were for the PPC-to-x86 change, but that situation is a little different.
Based on what yard stick does the iPhone still have a lot of work? At nearly 2.5 million units sold its the best selling phone at its price point.
The premise is that Apple can continue to add features to the iPhone through software updates. The basic comment is that the rate of features being added have been glacial. In order for me to prove my point, I need to demonstrate that there are a ton of things that Apple could be doing to the iPhone software. Really, an untold number of things. Each and every existing application could be made better with added features. Obviously new applications could be added. UI optimizations could be made within each app and as a system overall.
We weren't talking about sales, but where did you have 2.5 million units? It's only been 7.5 weeks since end of Sept when Apple reported that they sold 1.3m units by end of Sept. Selling another 1.2m units doesn't seem to be possible in the half quarter since.
.... The basic comment is that the rate of features being added have been glacial.
Glacial? Compared to what? Has any phone in the history of phones ever added more features faster than Apple added features to the iPhone?
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Originally Posted by THT
In order for me to prove my point, I need to demonstrate that there are a ton of things that Apple could be doing to the iPhone software. Really, an untold number of things. ...
The iPhone is an enabling technology and more. Its sets our imagination to racing. You are comparing the iPhone of your imagination to the iPhone of reality and finding reality lacking. What you don't seem to get is that it is the iPhone that sparked your imagination in the first place.
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Originally Posted by THT
We weren't talking about sales, but where did you have 2.5 million units? It's only been 7.5 weeks since end of Sept when Apple reported that they sold 1.3m units by end of Sept. Selling another 1.2m units doesn't seem to be possible in the half quarter since.
In about six weeks, we will know how many iPhones have been sold in 2007. What we know now is that the people who bought them are resoundingly satisfied with their purchase. As a member of that throng, I cannot agree with them more.
Iphone in its current form is already behind in predicted sales in the UK do you think they can really last another year against what the competitors will bring out?
If you listened to Steve Jobs at the UK launch he said that they were 18 months away from giving us a 3G enabled iphone. This would mean that if Apple follow the same release procudure as the they did the first time then it should be announced Q1 08.
I know the US market is generally pathetic with phones but all other makes tend to release updates to their phones EVERY year.
Take it how you will i guess. Id be quite happy if they just updated the current one to include missing features via software upgrades as 3G isnt all that important to me except for IM.
Iphone in its current form is already behind in predicted sales in the UK do you think they can really last another year against what the competitors will bring out?
Well I did say slowly!! The biggest problem with the iPhone is that there is no software development road map. So no one knows where Apple is going with this device. That makes it difficult to say things are slow because we don't know the destination.
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The biggest features has been the iTunes WiFi Store app and ringtones. That's about it outside of bug fixes and optimizations.
Bug fixes and optimizations are pretty huge and may indicate stabilization of the interfaces. When I see bug fixes and speed ups happening at the same time I'm pretty happy as it means there is still a lot of effort going into the iPhone.
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It hasn't been slow, it's been glacial. They've got a lot, and I'm mean a lot, of work still left to do for the iPhone, and they can't staff up quick enough.
It all depends if they are taking the iPhone in the same direction we want it to go in. Frankly I'm not sure this is the case. There is enough missing from the iPhone to keep me from buying one, but that doesn't seem to be the common case. The biggest problem is that even though there is much missing there isn't much competition.
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The SDK can't come soon enough (I imagine an SDK helping Apple as much as 3rd party developers, if not more).
I agree with that! The big problem is will Apple deliver that SDK in a way that is acceptable to the community? I'm not sure at all.
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Safari should have a Flash plugin. iPhone Safari should have a plugin architecture period.
I believe in both case here Apple is trying to guard against exhaustion of memory. I'm just not sure they can get reliable Flash in the memory foot print they have. Personally I hate flash but that is another matter all together.
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There should be a To Do app (or functionality existing in Mail). Notes should be better. There should be a much more functional calculator (scientific option at least). There's probably untold improvements needed in Mail and Messaging applications. There's definitely untold number of UI improvements left to do everywhere in the device. There's just a lot to do.
You hit upon some real issues above. I suspect there is a plan and part of that plan required getting a new rev of Mac OS/X out. On the flip side I don't think we will ever see a better calculator from Apple.
In any event I very much agree with its unfinished nature. If I thought that this was all we would get I would have lost interest sometime ago. Instead I'd rather see evidence that Apple will produce a software suite that fills my needs.
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It's amazing the as-shipped software has been that good.
I'm not even sure it was that good. As you may have noticed the software updates replace just about everything on the phone. That to me indicates a punt, that is they saw quality issues across the device and decided to refresh everything with the same feature set and try to increase code quality before going further.
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Couldn't agree with more on a low end version of the iPhone in the $150 to $250 range. And it'll need to be smaller. Perhaps a 3 inch 320 x 480 version around 4" x 2" in length and width. 8 and 16 GB storage would be the minimum for a low end and high version of the low end iPhone.
Actually what I'm thinking about here is a IPod nano (old design) form factor. This would make use of the click wheel interface to enter or select numbers, it will be based on outstanding pattens. Obviously a lot of stuff to squeeze into an old Nano form factor but they may very well stretch it or make it a folder.
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At least UMTS (~750 kbit/s) data network. All the normal iPhone apps (with many, if not all, of them having to be redesigned for a smaller screen). And I'm sorry to say, that text input will likely have to be through a soft T9 keypad. After spending a month overseas, I afraid T9 is going to be like the QWERTY of cell phones.
T9?? I'd have to say that Apple really needs a low cost phone that leaves out most of the current iPhone application set. We are talking real small here and a user interface that is tight. Plus there would be no practical way to manipulate the screen on a device this small. The goal being to provide a platform with Cell and iPod functionality.
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People are already used to it and it'll be just too difficult to get people to change. Apple will have to have a low end version if they want anything more than 1% market share in the cell phone market.
Almost every manufacture of cell phones has unit with dissimilar interfaces. Apple just needs a phone that can function at the rock bottom of the business. Making it compatible with iPhone would be a mistake in my mind. That doesn't mean ignoring easy to use or being competitive on the market but does realize that a lot of people don't care about smart phones at all.
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I think the current iPhone has a lot of room for improvement in the hardware front. HSDPA/HSUPA is obvious, and possible by 2Q 08, when low power 3G chipsets should be in mass production. So, a 3G version of an iPhone Apple would like to ship should be possible by Summer 2008. I say a version Apple would like to ship because they could have shipped a 3G iPhone in June if they wanted.
What Apple needs are new models. The hardware on the current model is perfectly good. As to 3G I don't get to wrapped up in that, there are other things I'd like to see. For example:
1.
A larger screen with a much higher pixel count.
2.
Larger on board flash.
3.
A USB host port.
4.
A port for a Flash card.
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It would probably have to be 18 mm thick, but it was definitely possible. I also think there is room to grow the screen to 4 inches by reducing the size of the Home button (like the iPod touch), growing the screen more towards the earpiece, and growing towards the sides as much as physically possible. So, 4" at something like 600 x 400 or 640 x 400 if Apple wants to use a 16/10 aspect ratio. Lastly, there should be a 100 to 160 GB HDD version.
Except for the HDD it is pretty amazing that we are thinking along the same lines here.
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Don't think I agree with on an UMPC or tablet version. The market is pretty small for such a thing, unless it can become a real note-taking educational and e-book type device.
The market is small because of what they offer up as a device. Offering up Cell, via the smart phone concept, makes a tablet much more interesting and valuable to carry. In many ways I see the iPhone as Apples first attempt at an internet tablet like device. It has all the features one would need except for the high resolution & larger screen. Throwing a bit more technology at it would provide for more functionality. For example FLASH storage, there isn't a use case for the iPhone that can't see more storage as an aid in keeping the customer happy.
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So to answer the original post, I think the version 2 of the iPhone will appear in April/May 2008 as a 3G device with 16 GB memory. But I also think a low end iPhone will appear sometime in the Summer. Apple desperately needs that low end iPhone, not to mention a large storage version (at least 64 GB) either.
Personally I expect an iPhone bump in the first couple of months of the new year. This will increase memory to 16GB as there is considerable demand for this, the hardware will other wise be the same. Along with that there is likely to be a significant change in the OS for these devices. OR there better be!
Just doubling the memory ought to move the iPhone along in sales significantly. Get a real revision to the OS out that delivers a desirable set of new features is important also.
Based on what yard stick does the iPhone still have a lot of work? At nearly 2.5 million units sold its the best selling phone at its price point.
Any reasonable yardstick. The fact that the unit sells well does not mean that it meets everybody's needs. Kenworth sells a lot of trucks but that doesn't mean I need one in my driveway.
One very glaring item that needs work is the Bluetooth stack.
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I think iPhone 2 some are looking for at MW 2008 will be a major software update.
I won't disagree with that. Soon after the SDK is due and that may also be a gating factor. What I do expect to see very soon, probably MW 2008 or a bit later is a 16GB iPhone on more or less the same hardware.
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While I agree that the iPhone is not finished. Its leagues beyond most every other phone UI.
It all depends on what you want to do. A UI that doesn't get your work done is pretty useless.
The only good thing, right now with the iPhone, is that the hackers have jail broken the unit and demonstrated just how powerful the platform is. There is already software out there that makes the iPhone much more viable, the only problem is that this is stuff that should be supported by Apple. For ecample file browsing, access to the files system over USB and a number of other things.
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Jobs has said several times that the iPhone will get 3G. Outside of a more storage I don't think Apple will change the hardware anytime soon. The longer they go with the current iPhone the more money they make from economy of scale. I wouldn't look for a new version until late 2008.
You seem to be of the opinion that there is not room for multiple devices in the line up. Frankly I could see Apple debuting a couple of new iPhones at any time. It is all a matter of how aggressive they want to be in the market. At one end they need simplification at the other they need more tablet like functionality.
Give me a iPhone with a larger screen, 256 meg of RAM, 32 GB of storage, better software access and I'll be off to buy right away. The platform is amazing, no doubt about it, but it isn't all there for many of us.
Glacial? Compared to what? Has any phone in the history of phones every added more features faster than Apple added features to the iPhone?
[sarcasm]Considering the number of features of added to the iPhone so far, yeah probably. [/sarcasm]
Yup. It's glacial. Do I need to compare it to anything else? No. I really don't care about anything else. Is there any reason to compare it to anything else? No. Are my expectations too high? I really doubt it. At this rate, the advantage of the "software update" isn't any advantage whatsoever. Oh, I remember another new feature introduced by software update: the Home Button double click. That is arguably the best new feature.
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The iPhone is an enabling technology and more. Its sets our imagination to racing. You are comparing the iPhone of your imagination to the iPhone of reality and finding reality lacking. What you don't seem to get is that it is the iPhone that sparked your imagination in the first place.
I'm pretty sure I've got my imagination firmly in check. I really don't see how one can say that the iPhone software doesn't have a lot of work left in it. Like I said before. Virtually every single application on the iPhone could use improvements:
Safari: How about better text input for making posts in forums and the like? Not to mention a Flash plugin (Apple should just pay Adobe 2 or 3 million to do it. Get down to assembly if they have to.) How about making iPod supported image, audio and video files downloadable? Safari is the one thing Apple should be trying to improve as much as possible and as fast as possible. It's the iPhone's strongest feature.
Calculator: This should be cake. Scientific option. Financial option. Conversion option, etc. I'm actually quite surprised how often I use the calculator functions on my Treo.
iPod: A better scrubber control for reverse and fast forwarding. Searching.
Camera: Video recording. Software based image stabilization.
Phone: Contacts search
Mail: To do list functionality
Calendar: Week view
Accelerometer: Make it better. Right now the rotation response is a little slow, and it could be improved.
Notes: Different font and background options.
Keyboard: Make it multi-touch for capitalization (as we've done on keyboards throughout our lives).
Storage: Disk mode options like the iPods.
Magnifying glass: Um, it doesn't need to work like a real world magnifying glass with edge distortions and such. It doesn't help place the carat. Just make it clear, bigger, more contrast, etc.
And that's just the existing apps, and just the one's I've thought about. I'm sure there are many other features for the existing apps that other users want, as well.
How about new apps? Acting as an EDGE modem would be nice. How about a game or two. I imagine a very nice game of solitaire, shanghai, chess or bejeweled could be made. An encrypted password keeper would be nice. An eBook reader would be nice.
If I was using my imagination, well, Apple hasn't started on that software yet. I'd like to have Apple turn it into a Leopard computer with a file viewer (Coverflow and Quicklook included), Expose, a lot more input and editing capability, a serious attempt at a multi-touch gestural input language, and things like that. But I know that the iPhone is a very targeted consumer product, and mobile computer it isn't.
Even so, the current state of the software, which I think is in fact quite good, has lots of room for improvement still. I can understand that Apple is waiting to get iPhone OS X software synced with Leopard (kernel, frameworks, and apps) and the pace of improvement will increase after that happens and an SDK is created, but one can't really say the promise of software update bringing new features has been fulfilled.
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In about six weeks, we will know how many iPhones have been sold in 2007. What we know now is that the people who bought them are resoundingly satisfied with their purchase. As a member of that throng, I cannot agree with them more.
Based on iPod buying trends, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple sells 2m iPhones in Q4, making for a total of 3.3m iPhones sold in 2007. You're 2.5m figure is probably a low ball. If it really is 2.5m, I don't think Apple can sell their 10m goal unless they bring out a cheaper version (which they inevitably have to anyways).
I believe in both case here Apple is trying to guard against exhaustion of memory. I'm just not sure they can get reliable Flash in the memory foot print they have. Personally I hate flash but that is another matter all together.
It's possible. The current device should have about 128 MB of memory spread across its ARM CPUs. I think that should be enough. And considering that it can have the phone running, the iPod playing and websurfing (8 "tabs" no less) at the same time, they probably can make a compromise and reduce the number of tabs to 5 or 6.
The next version of the iPhone will hopefully have 256 MB memory, which should make the system much more capable.
If it's a play on media format dominance (ie, AppleTV doesn't support .flv files), Apple should just forget it as the format is too ubiquitous now.
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You hit upon some real issues above. I suspect there is a plan and part of that plan required getting a new rev of Mac OS/X out. On the flip side I don't think we will ever see a better calculator from Apple.
There probably are some issues with Leopard and iPhone OS X (it's like a Tiger+ type system) being out of sync, and there's a Leopard OS version of the iPhone in the labs. One with mobile Safari 3, Leopard Mail, iCal, and such. And probably won't be released for another 6 months. I really hope your wrong about the calculator since all it is is a slide of your finger a la Weather/Stocks.
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I'm not even sure it was that good. As you may have noticed the software updates replace just about everything on the phone. That to me indicates a punt, that is they saw quality issues across the device and decided to refresh everything with the same feature set and try to increase code quality before going further.
All I've done is use it at ATT/Apple stores, and yes, there are some instabilities. Maybe they are trying to hold on until iPhone OS X syncs with Leopard.
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Actually what I'm thinking about here is a IPod nano (old design) form factor. This would make use of the click wheel interface to enter or select numbers, it will be based on outstanding pattens. Obviously a lot of stuff to squeeze into an old Nano form factor but they may very well stretch it or make it a folder.
T9?? I'd have to say that Apple really needs a low cost phone that leaves out most of the current iPhone application set. We are talking real small here and a user interface that is tight. Plus there would be no practical way to manipulate the screen on a device this small. The goal being to provide a platform with Cell and iPod functionality.
I really don't think this is the Apple (Steve Jobs) way. An Apple cell phone of the iPod nano-ish design would be like the shuffle of the cell phone world. It would be something they'd give away with a contract, and I don't think they'd do that until 3 or 4 years down the line. I think multi-touch is the reason they decided to play this game, and they'll stick with it. An iPhone "nano" with a 3" screen would be on the order of 2 x 4 inches in planform. I think that size hits a sweetspot for something that is smaller and cheaper.
The differentiator should be the hardware (CPU, memory, storage, size) and maybe specific software features enabled by the hardware (things like Flash or CPU intensive software). Is there any functional difference in the software between the current iPod nano and classic? I don't think so. I think Apple should try to keep it that way.
For a 3" screen, they'd have to give up on the 4 icon wide grid format and go with 3 wide. The QWERTY keypad is pretty much out, but a T9 one is perfectly acceptable. A horizontal QWERTY maybe possible though. And I'm serious about T9. For small form factor mobiles (2 inches wide or less), T9 is virtually the only way to go. And 90% of the cell phone world uses it! To my surprise, I think it may live on forever like QWERTY. I do think they have to keep a 480 x 320 screen so that web browsing stays good.
I also agree that Apple will have to have an iPhone lineup as diverse as the iPod lineup, except for the cheap "normal cell phone" part, for now. They need a lineup that spans ~$150 to $600
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The market is small because of what they offer up as a device. Offering up Cell, via the smart phone concept, makes a tablet much more interesting and valuable to carry. In many ways I see the iPhone as Apples first attempt at an internet tablet like device. It has all the features one would need except for the high resolution & larger screen. Throwing a bit more technology at it would provide for more functionality. For example FLASH storage, there isn't a use case for the iPhone that can't see more storage as an aid in keeping the customer happy.
Well, I think a tablet falls into the same problem with Microsoft and Intel's attempt at it: too large for a handheld, not useful enough against a laptop. What usage model would get a consumer to buy one over an iPhone or a laptop? Would it be common place for a consumer to have a handheld (iPhone), laptop, and a tablet?
I see educational uses. They could be cheaper and more durable and truly act as a note taking, homework executing, electronic book like device where a large screen would be greatly helpful. And would thusly spread to business and consumer markets in similar usages. Maybe in 2010 when the right design (less than half a pound, 11x8.5 inch form factor, less than 0.5 inches thick, cheap) could be built.
Comments
I think that you missed the point entirely. I live in the heart of AT&T country. In my state, we have two cities with 3G coverage by AT&T. Sure, the company is working like a Trojan to expand its 3G coverage. However, it was not nearly there when the iPhone was introduced. It is not there now. It won't be there for quite a while yet.
Whine if you want about what other people have in other places. The fact is that 3G coverage worldwide is not nearly pervasive as people like you would have us believe. Just like in the US, it is spotty to non-existent in many areas. It is all good and fine that Japan is moving beyond 3G. However, the iPhone is not yet in Japan and neither are either of us.
3G will fall back to Edge if you have no 3G coverage so essentially it doesn't matter if the coverage is there or not. Apple can easily release a 3G phone now, and if you have coverage or not the worst that can happen is your Phone will have the same Edge coverage, but in ideal circumstances you get 3G.
IMO. Apple will release a 3G iPhone. They may not do it at a pre scheduled event like MacWorld, but they might.
That's about it outside of bug fixes and optimizations. It hasn't been slow, it's been glacial. They've got a lot, and I'm mean a lot, of work still left to do for the iPhone, and they can't staff up quick enough.
Based on what yard stick does the iPhone still have a lot of work? At nearly 2.5 million units sold its the best selling phone at its price point.
I think iPhone 2 some are looking for at MW 2008 will be a major software update.
There's definitely untold number of UI improvements left to do everywhere in the device. There's just a lot to do.
While I agree that the iPhone is not finished. Its leagues beyond most every other phone UI.
IMO. Apple will release a 3G iPhone. They may not do it at a pre scheduled event like MacWorld, but they might.
Jobs has said several times that the iPhone will get 3G. Outside of a more storage I don't think Apple will change the hardware anytime soon. The longer they go with the current iPhone the more money they make from economy of scale. I wouldn't look for a new version until late 2008.
The next minor physical revision will be a 16GB version, while the next major revision will have 3G and GPS. They're probably waiting on a next gen battery for thta one.
Video recording capabilities too.
I really want an iPhone this Christmas but I guess I'm going to wait until the 16GB storage upgrade.. which better be in March or ireland gets it.
Video recording capabilities too.
That's only a software update away, well, suffice to say it's a software issue, not that it will ever be fixed.
I really want an iPhone this Christmas but I guess I'm going to wait until the 16GB storage upgrade.. which better be in March or Ireland gets it.
I'd say your right
I can't hold out, I'm going to get an 8GB shipped over to me by a friend to tied me over until the 16GB 3G version comes along. I'm saving a bunch by getting the American version anyhow. €325 all in, including a nice Tuffwrap case, and shipping. I shall be switching off Edge though, it's Wifi for me. Handy for Mail and Internet when in a hotspot, hotel, Airport, my house or any of my friends, cool phone too, besides I'm going to hack the crap out of it
Iphone 2 (3g version) will be announed in jan 08 and will be released Q4 08 to conincide with Nokias touch screen flagship model as well as SEs P5.
Um, if you're not trying to be funny, Apple will never do this. That is, announce a revision of an existing hardware product that'll be available 10 months later. I say this with absolute 100% confidence. They never announce products that'll produce a drop in sales of existing product lines. And iPhone sales fall into this category.
Even for new category products, the longest they've ever gone is 6 months with the iPhone. They went 4 months with the AppleTV. Of existing product lines, the longest I can think of was an announce 3 month delay in the iMac G5. They've gone 2 months with other product revision as well.
10 months is positively insane. I don't think any hardware maker has even done this, that is, announce a product revision almost a year ahead of time. I have to go back check when the time lines were for the PPC-to-x86 change, but that situation is a little different.
Based on what yard stick does the iPhone still have a lot of work? At nearly 2.5 million units sold its the best selling phone at its price point.
The premise is that Apple can continue to add features to the iPhone through software updates. The basic comment is that the rate of features being added have been glacial. In order for me to prove my point, I need to demonstrate that there are a ton of things that Apple could be doing to the iPhone software. Really, an untold number of things. Each and every existing application could be made better with added features. Obviously new applications could be added. UI optimizations could be made within each app and as a system overall.
We weren't talking about sales, but where did you have 2.5 million units? It's only been 7.5 weeks since end of Sept when Apple reported that they sold 1.3m units by end of Sept. Selling another 1.2m units doesn't seem to be possible in the half quarter since.
Iphone 2 (3g version) will be announed in jan 08 and will be released Q4 08 to conincide with Nokias touch screen flagship model as well as SEs P5.
Go back to your planet.
.... The basic comment is that the rate of features being added have been glacial.
Glacial? Compared to what? Has any phone in the history of phones ever added more features faster than Apple added features to the iPhone?
In order for me to prove my point, I need to demonstrate that there are a ton of things that Apple could be doing to the iPhone software. Really, an untold number of things. ...
The iPhone is an enabling technology and more. Its sets our imagination to racing. You are comparing the iPhone of your imagination to the iPhone of reality and finding reality lacking. What you don't seem to get is that it is the iPhone that sparked your imagination in the first place.
We weren't talking about sales, but where did you have 2.5 million units? It's only been 7.5 weeks since end of Sept when Apple reported that they sold 1.3m units by end of Sept. Selling another 1.2m units doesn't seem to be possible in the half quarter since.
In about six weeks, we will know how many iPhones have been sold in 2007. What we know now is that the people who bought them are resoundingly satisfied with their purchase. As a member of that throng, I cannot agree with them more.
If you listened to Steve Jobs at the UK launch he said that they were 18 months away from giving us a 3G enabled iphone. This would mean that if Apple follow the same release procudure as the they did the first time then it should be announced Q1 08.
I know the US market is generally pathetic with phones but all other makes tend to release updates to their phones EVERY year.
If you listened to Steve Jobs at the UK launch he said that they were 18 months away from giving us a 3G enabled iphone.
If you have to know anything about Steve Jobs it's that you shouldn't listen to a word he says, ever!
If you have to know anything about Steve Jobs it's that you shouldn't listen to a word he says, ever!
At the very least we can say he is a master at misdirection. He will point left while Apple is really going right.
Iphone in its current form is already behind in predicted sales in the UK do you think they can really last another year against what the competitors will bring out?
Who predicted iPhone sales in the UK?
Not that obvious.
Well I did say slowly!! The biggest problem with the iPhone is that there is no software development road map. So no one knows where Apple is going with this device. That makes it difficult to say things are slow because we don't know the destination.
The biggest features has been the iTunes WiFi Store app and ringtones. That's about it outside of bug fixes and optimizations.
Bug fixes and optimizations are pretty huge and may indicate stabilization of the interfaces. When I see bug fixes and speed ups happening at the same time I'm pretty happy as it means there is still a lot of effort going into the iPhone.
It hasn't been slow, it's been glacial. They've got a lot, and I'm mean a lot, of work still left to do for the iPhone, and they can't staff up quick enough.
It all depends if they are taking the iPhone in the same direction we want it to go in. Frankly I'm not sure this is the case. There is enough missing from the iPhone to keep me from buying one, but that doesn't seem to be the common case. The biggest problem is that even though there is much missing there isn't much competition.
The SDK can't come soon enough (I imagine an SDK helping Apple as much as 3rd party developers, if not more).
I agree with that! The big problem is will Apple deliver that SDK in a way that is acceptable to the community? I'm not sure at all.
Safari should have a Flash plugin. iPhone Safari should have a plugin architecture period.
I believe in both case here Apple is trying to guard against exhaustion of memory. I'm just not sure they can get reliable Flash in the memory foot print they have. Personally I hate flash but that is another matter all together.
There should be a To Do app (or functionality existing in Mail). Notes should be better. There should be a much more functional calculator (scientific option at least). There's probably untold improvements needed in Mail and Messaging applications. There's definitely untold number of UI improvements left to do everywhere in the device. There's just a lot to do.
You hit upon some real issues above. I suspect there is a plan and part of that plan required getting a new rev of Mac OS/X out. On the flip side I don't think we will ever see a better calculator from Apple.
In any event I very much agree with its unfinished nature. If I thought that this was all we would get I would have lost interest sometime ago. Instead I'd rather see evidence that Apple will produce a software suite that fills my needs.
It's amazing the as-shipped software has been that good.
I'm not even sure it was that good. As you may have noticed the software updates replace just about everything on the phone. That to me indicates a punt, that is they saw quality issues across the device and decided to refresh everything with the same feature set and try to increase code quality before going further.
Couldn't agree with more on a low end version of the iPhone in the $150 to $250 range. And it'll need to be smaller. Perhaps a 3 inch 320 x 480 version around 4" x 2" in length and width. 8 and 16 GB storage would be the minimum for a low end and high version of the low end iPhone.
Actually what I'm thinking about here is a IPod nano (old design) form factor. This would make use of the click wheel interface to enter or select numbers, it will be based on outstanding pattens. Obviously a lot of stuff to squeeze into an old Nano form factor but they may very well stretch it or make it a folder.
At least UMTS (~750 kbit/s) data network. All the normal iPhone apps (with many, if not all, of them having to be redesigned for a smaller screen). And I'm sorry to say, that text input will likely have to be through a soft T9 keypad. After spending a month overseas, I afraid T9 is going to be like the QWERTY of cell phones.
T9?? I'd have to say that Apple really needs a low cost phone that leaves out most of the current iPhone application set. We are talking real small here and a user interface that is tight. Plus there would be no practical way to manipulate the screen on a device this small. The goal being to provide a platform with Cell and iPod functionality.
People are already used to it and it'll be just too difficult to get people to change. Apple will have to have a low end version if they want anything more than 1% market share in the cell phone market.
Almost every manufacture of cell phones has unit with dissimilar interfaces. Apple just needs a phone that can function at the rock bottom of the business. Making it compatible with iPhone would be a mistake in my mind. That doesn't mean ignoring easy to use or being competitive on the market but does realize that a lot of people don't care about smart phones at all.
I think the current iPhone has a lot of room for improvement in the hardware front. HSDPA/HSUPA is obvious, and possible by 2Q 08, when low power 3G chipsets should be in mass production. So, a 3G version of an iPhone Apple would like to ship should be possible by Summer 2008. I say a version Apple would like to ship because they could have shipped a 3G iPhone in June if they wanted.
What Apple needs are new models. The hardware on the current model is perfectly good. As to 3G I don't get to wrapped up in that, there are other things I'd like to see. For example:
1.
A larger screen with a much higher pixel count.
2.
Larger on board flash.
3.
A USB host port.
4.
A port for a Flash card.
It would probably have to be 18 mm thick, but it was definitely possible. I also think there is room to grow the screen to 4 inches by reducing the size of the Home button (like the iPod touch), growing the screen more towards the earpiece, and growing towards the sides as much as physically possible. So, 4" at something like 600 x 400 or 640 x 400 if Apple wants to use a 16/10 aspect ratio. Lastly, there should be a 100 to 160 GB HDD version.
Except for the HDD it is pretty amazing that we are thinking along the same lines here.
Don't think I agree with on an UMPC or tablet version. The market is pretty small for such a thing, unless it can become a real note-taking educational and e-book type device.
The market is small because of what they offer up as a device. Offering up Cell, via the smart phone concept, makes a tablet much more interesting and valuable to carry. In many ways I see the iPhone as Apples first attempt at an internet tablet like device. It has all the features one would need except for the high resolution & larger screen. Throwing a bit more technology at it would provide for more functionality. For example FLASH storage, there isn't a use case for the iPhone that can't see more storage as an aid in keeping the customer happy.
So to answer the original post, I think the version 2 of the iPhone will appear in April/May 2008 as a 3G device with 16 GB memory. But I also think a low end iPhone will appear sometime in the Summer. Apple desperately needs that low end iPhone, not to mention a large storage version (at least 64 GB) either.
Personally I expect an iPhone bump in the first couple of months of the new year. This will increase memory to 16GB as there is considerable demand for this, the hardware will other wise be the same. Along with that there is likely to be a significant change in the OS for these devices. OR there better be!
Just doubling the memory ought to move the iPhone along in sales significantly. Get a real revision to the OS out that delivers a desirable set of new features is important also.
Dave
Based on what yard stick does the iPhone still have a lot of work? At nearly 2.5 million units sold its the best selling phone at its price point.
Any reasonable yardstick. The fact that the unit sells well does not mean that it meets everybody's needs. Kenworth sells a lot of trucks but that doesn't mean I need one in my driveway.
One very glaring item that needs work is the Bluetooth stack.
I think iPhone 2 some are looking for at MW 2008 will be a major software update.
I won't disagree with that. Soon after the SDK is due and that may also be a gating factor. What I do expect to see very soon, probably MW 2008 or a bit later is a 16GB iPhone on more or less the same hardware.
While I agree that the iPhone is not finished. Its leagues beyond most every other phone UI.
It all depends on what you want to do. A UI that doesn't get your work done is pretty useless.
The only good thing, right now with the iPhone, is that the hackers have jail broken the unit and demonstrated just how powerful the platform is. There is already software out there that makes the iPhone much more viable, the only problem is that this is stuff that should be supported by Apple. For ecample file browsing, access to the files system over USB and a number of other things.
Jobs has said several times that the iPhone will get 3G. Outside of a more storage I don't think Apple will change the hardware anytime soon. The longer they go with the current iPhone the more money they make from economy of scale. I wouldn't look for a new version until late 2008.
You seem to be of the opinion that there is not room for multiple devices in the line up. Frankly I could see Apple debuting a couple of new iPhones at any time. It is all a matter of how aggressive they want to be in the market. At one end they need simplification at the other they need more tablet like functionality.
Give me a iPhone with a larger screen, 256 meg of RAM, 32 GB of storage, better software access and I'll be off to buy right away. The platform is amazing, no doubt about it, but it isn't all there for many of us.
Dave
Glacial? Compared to what? Has any phone in the history of phones every added more features faster than Apple added features to the iPhone?
[sarcasm]Considering the number of features of added to the iPhone so far, yeah probably. [/sarcasm]
Yup. It's glacial. Do I need to compare it to anything else? No. I really don't care about anything else. Is there any reason to compare it to anything else? No. Are my expectations too high? I really doubt it. At this rate, the advantage of the "software update" isn't any advantage whatsoever. Oh, I remember another new feature introduced by software update: the Home Button double click. That is arguably the best new feature.
The iPhone is an enabling technology and more. Its sets our imagination to racing. You are comparing the iPhone of your imagination to the iPhone of reality and finding reality lacking. What you don't seem to get is that it is the iPhone that sparked your imagination in the first place.
I'm pretty sure I've got my imagination firmly in check. I really don't see how one can say that the iPhone software doesn't have a lot of work left in it. Like I said before. Virtually every single application on the iPhone could use improvements:
Safari: How about better text input for making posts in forums and the like? Not to mention a Flash plugin (Apple should just pay Adobe 2 or 3 million to do it. Get down to assembly if they have to.) How about making iPod supported image, audio and video files downloadable? Safari is the one thing Apple should be trying to improve as much as possible and as fast as possible. It's the iPhone's strongest feature.
Calculator: This should be cake. Scientific option. Financial option. Conversion option, etc. I'm actually quite surprised how often I use the calculator functions on my Treo.
iPod: A better scrubber control for reverse and fast forwarding. Searching.
Camera: Video recording. Software based image stabilization.
Phone: Contacts search
Mail: To do list functionality
Calendar: Week view
Accelerometer: Make it better. Right now the rotation response is a little slow, and it could be improved.
Notes: Different font and background options.
Keyboard: Make it multi-touch for capitalization (as we've done on keyboards throughout our lives).
Storage: Disk mode options like the iPods.
Magnifying glass: Um, it doesn't need to work like a real world magnifying glass with edge distortions and such. It doesn't help place the carat. Just make it clear, bigger, more contrast, etc.
And that's just the existing apps, and just the one's I've thought about. I'm sure there are many other features for the existing apps that other users want, as well.
How about new apps? Acting as an EDGE modem would be nice. How about a game or two. I imagine a very nice game of solitaire, shanghai, chess or bejeweled could be made. An encrypted password keeper would be nice. An eBook reader would be nice.
If I was using my imagination, well, Apple hasn't started on that software yet. I'd like to have Apple turn it into a Leopard computer with a file viewer (Coverflow and Quicklook included), Expose, a lot more input and editing capability, a serious attempt at a multi-touch gestural input language, and things like that. But I know that the iPhone is a very targeted consumer product, and mobile computer it isn't.
Even so, the current state of the software, which I think is in fact quite good, has lots of room for improvement still. I can understand that Apple is waiting to get iPhone OS X software synced with Leopard (kernel, frameworks, and apps) and the pace of improvement will increase after that happens and an SDK is created, but one can't really say the promise of software update bringing new features has been fulfilled.
In about six weeks, we will know how many iPhones have been sold in 2007. What we know now is that the people who bought them are resoundingly satisfied with their purchase. As a member of that throng, I cannot agree with them more.
Based on iPod buying trends, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple sells 2m iPhones in Q4, making for a total of 3.3m iPhones sold in 2007. You're 2.5m figure is probably a low ball. If it really is 2.5m, I don't think Apple can sell their 10m goal unless they bring out a cheaper version (which they inevitably have to anyways).
I believe in both case here Apple is trying to guard against exhaustion of memory. I'm just not sure they can get reliable Flash in the memory foot print they have. Personally I hate flash but that is another matter all together.
It's possible. The current device should have about 128 MB of memory spread across its ARM CPUs. I think that should be enough. And considering that it can have the phone running, the iPod playing and websurfing (8 "tabs" no less) at the same time, they probably can make a compromise and reduce the number of tabs to 5 or 6.
The next version of the iPhone will hopefully have 256 MB memory, which should make the system much more capable.
If it's a play on media format dominance (ie, AppleTV doesn't support .flv files), Apple should just forget it as the format is too ubiquitous now.
You hit upon some real issues above. I suspect there is a plan and part of that plan required getting a new rev of Mac OS/X out. On the flip side I don't think we will ever see a better calculator from Apple.
There probably are some issues with Leopard and iPhone OS X (it's like a Tiger+ type system) being out of sync, and there's a Leopard OS version of the iPhone in the labs. One with mobile Safari 3, Leopard Mail, iCal, and such. And probably won't be released for another 6 months. I really hope your wrong about the calculator since all it is is a slide of your finger a la Weather/Stocks.
I'm not even sure it was that good. As you may have noticed the software updates replace just about everything on the phone. That to me indicates a punt, that is they saw quality issues across the device and decided to refresh everything with the same feature set and try to increase code quality before going further.
All I've done is use it at ATT/Apple stores, and yes, there are some instabilities. Maybe they are trying to hold on until iPhone OS X syncs with Leopard.
Actually what I'm thinking about here is a IPod nano (old design) form factor. This would make use of the click wheel interface to enter or select numbers, it will be based on outstanding pattens. Obviously a lot of stuff to squeeze into an old Nano form factor but they may very well stretch it or make it a folder.
T9?? I'd have to say that Apple really needs a low cost phone that leaves out most of the current iPhone application set. We are talking real small here and a user interface that is tight. Plus there would be no practical way to manipulate the screen on a device this small. The goal being to provide a platform with Cell and iPod functionality.
I really don't think this is the Apple (Steve Jobs) way. An Apple cell phone of the iPod nano-ish design would be like the shuffle of the cell phone world. It would be something they'd give away with a contract, and I don't think they'd do that until 3 or 4 years down the line. I think multi-touch is the reason they decided to play this game, and they'll stick with it. An iPhone "nano" with a 3" screen would be on the order of 2 x 4 inches in planform. I think that size hits a sweetspot for something that is smaller and cheaper.
The differentiator should be the hardware (CPU, memory, storage, size) and maybe specific software features enabled by the hardware (things like Flash or CPU intensive software). Is there any functional difference in the software between the current iPod nano and classic? I don't think so. I think Apple should try to keep it that way.
For a 3" screen, they'd have to give up on the 4 icon wide grid format and go with 3 wide. The QWERTY keypad is pretty much out, but a T9 one is perfectly acceptable. A horizontal QWERTY maybe possible though. And I'm serious about T9. For small form factor mobiles (2 inches wide or less), T9 is virtually the only way to go. And 90% of the cell phone world uses it! To my surprise, I think it may live on forever like QWERTY. I do think they have to keep a 480 x 320 screen so that web browsing stays good.
I also agree that Apple will have to have an iPhone lineup as diverse as the iPod lineup, except for the cheap "normal cell phone" part, for now. They need a lineup that spans ~$150 to $600
The market is small because of what they offer up as a device. Offering up Cell, via the smart phone concept, makes a tablet much more interesting and valuable to carry. In many ways I see the iPhone as Apples first attempt at an internet tablet like device. It has all the features one would need except for the high resolution & larger screen. Throwing a bit more technology at it would provide for more functionality. For example FLASH storage, there isn't a use case for the iPhone that can't see more storage as an aid in keeping the customer happy.
Well, I think a tablet falls into the same problem with Microsoft and Intel's attempt at it: too large for a handheld, not useful enough against a laptop. What usage model would get a consumer to buy one over an iPhone or a laptop? Would it be common place for a consumer to have a handheld (iPhone), laptop, and a tablet?
I see educational uses. They could be cheaper and more durable and truly act as a note taking, homework executing, electronic book like device where a large screen would be greatly helpful. And would thusly spread to business and consumer markets in similar usages. Maybe in 2010 when the right design (less than half a pound, 11x8.5 inch form factor, less than 0.5 inches thick, cheap) could be built.
Who predicted iPhone sales in the UK?
Apple set a figure of 10k for 1st day sales.