Fine enough I'm no more a chip manufacturer than you. Much of what you say sounds like your opinion to support your position more than it sounds like you have any real information of how these processes work.
Tsk, tsk Teno, I think its been well-established to long time AI posters like yourself that Mel does have some experience in manufacturing and electronics... that has been his life's work, after all. He's not walking around all day in an Intel chip-fab bunny suit, but he obviously has a good idea of what he's talking about, certainly a lot more than the average person.
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Not great in comparison to what? A fair comparision cannot be made with US sales the circumstances between the two markets are very different.
Fair comparison, shmair comparison. Apple has publicly stated that they want to sell 10 million iPhones a year. Europe is one of the three major markets in the world where they could do so, the others being the US and Asia.
The US and Asia can take up some of the slack for poor European sales (that is, assuming Asian sales are not just as dismal as Euro sales have been so far), but even so, it's just common sense that Apple wants to move at least a couple of million iPhones a year in Europe. And from what we're seeing so far, it doesn't look like they're hitting those kinds of numbers.
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You have a special knack for misquoting me. I never said the iPhone has lost no sales because of 3G. But there are a few other factors going on in Europe other than 3G.
No, you just like to give the strong impression that so few sales are lost due to no 3G that it doesn't matter. Possibly in the US it hasn't been that big a deal (though even there, a good argument could be made that iPhone sales would be EVEN BETTER if the iPhone had 3G), but in Europe it definitely does seem to be biting Apple in the keister, in conjunction with the pricing issues.
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The same way Apple gave their competitors time to catch up with their good enough mp3 players....with FM radios, music rentals, and Plays For Sure.
Unfortunately, its not the same situation at all.
In the portable music player market, the established competition was either small and weak (Diamond, Creative) or extraordinarily incompetent (Sony, Compaq). In cell phones, this is not the case.
While the established players haven't been great at software, they are neither small, weak, or especially incompetent. Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG, etc are all huge, worldwide companies with tens of billions of dollars in yearly revenue (Nokia's worldwide revenue is about three times Apple's), and unlike, say, a Microsoft (who does cellphone software), they are quite focused on their cellphone business, as that is a core business for most of them. They have close relationships with all the major carriers (very important in this biz), and considerable resources to throw at making their own iPhone clones.
Not to take anything away from the iPod, but Apple was frankly facing either midgets or idiots in establishing that business. Comparing early-days iPod competitors to the established cellphone makers is like comparing a JV high school football team to Ohio State. They're still beatable, sure, but it's a lot harder.
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Just as the iPod has always been a work in progress which never gave the competition a chance to catch up. I would venture the iPhone will be the same. By the time competitors have made what the iPhone was last year Apple will have moved on.
As an Apple stockholder, I hope so, but problem is, Apple is actually the one playing catch up in some key areas. No 3G. No MMS. No GPS. No voice-dialing. Very crippled bluetooth functionality. Apple needs to get those weaknesses addressed, and soon, otherwise they're just giving away selling points to the competition.
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Seems no matter what success the iPhone achieves you will cling to the the idea it could have done "better" if it had 3G now. Your minds are permanently set on that no matter the facts that may point to the contrary. In a few months it'll no longer be an issue.
Our minds are set on that simply because the evidence points that way. And I guess because we choose reality over your spin. Yes, the iPhone would be doing better in Europe if it had 3G, I don't think that's really debatable among reasonable people, in part because, as Aegis pointed out, Europe has awful GPRS for non-3G data in a lot of places, rather than the USA's semi-awful EDGE.
It's all about user experience, and GPRS provides a sh***y one, frankly.
You are correct in that sometime next year it'll no longer be an issue, but it shouldn't have been an issue to begin with, at least for Europe. Samsung has a 3G smartphone out with good battery life. Apple has access to most of the same chipsets and batteries, and, with their software prowess, is almost certainly better at power management than Samsung likely is. So they should be able to do it too. They just didn't, that's all, and they're paying for it, as Euro sales are bearing out.
There's no need to spin the reality of the situation, and I'm sure Apple isn't doing so either behind closed doors. Rather, they're very likely trying to fix the situation by burning the midnight oil to get a 3G iPhone out ASAP. That's great, but it is a bit late, and I think an overemphasis on certain design priorities and perhaps a touch of arrogance figured into that. Hopefully they will learn from the experience.
For example, you say that those who manufacture those products would differ with me. Based on what knowledge? You can go read about it yourself, as I suggested, and then come and argue some more, if you find me to be wrong in this.
I'll put it this way. Someone can read general information about my profession on the internet. But that does not make them very knowledgeable or proficient in what I do everyday. They are not actively involved in the details and minutia and problem solving that I deal with. So they will not have earned the experience or knowledge base that I've earned from doing it everyday.
The person who works in flash or battery manufacture everyday will have experience and a knowledge base much richer and deeper than either of us will have from reading about it on the internet.
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Good points, but they still can't account for the vast difference in sales, just some of it.
My point is that all of these factors collectively (including 3G) effect how the iPhone is received. Right now there is no hard evidence which may effect sales more than any other.
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For a short while, yes. But people who want a phone aren't going to buy the iTouch.
Right now we are only looking at sales for the month of November. The Touch provided people a choice. People who wanted a multi-touch device but did not want an iPhone have the choice to use a multi-touch device but keep their own phone.
When the iPhone was launched in the US we did not have that choice.
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We'll see. That's not something you can quantify, because it hasn't happened yet
Between the UK, France,a and Germany a couple hundred thousand iPhones over a months isn't a huge number of sales.
In the portable music player market, the established competition was either small and weak (Diamond, Creative) or extraordinarily incompetent (Sony, Compaq). In cell phones, this is not the case.
Now we have the luxury of looking in the past and knowing how it all turns out. A few years back people really predicted that Apple was messing up for this reason or that.
The complaints against the iPod were in the absence of the full vision Apple had for the future of the iPod. Now looking back most of those complaints look silly. Its more likely than not the complaints leveled against the iPhone are in the same information vacuum of not being able to see Apple's future vision.
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As an Apple stockholder, I hope so, but problem is, Apple is actually the one playing catch up in some key areas. No 3G. No MMS. No GPS. No voice-dialing. Very crippled bluetooth functionality. Apple needs to get those weaknesses addressed, and soon, otherwise they're just giving away selling points to the competition.
There is no catching up because Apple is taking a different path. Apple doesn't want to be like the others, they want to completely surpass them in functionality. To accomplish this the current iPhone is the beginning of a new user interface foundation to build functionality upon.
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Our minds are set on that simply because the evidence points that way. And I guess because we choose reality over your spin. Yes, the iPhone would be doing better in Europe if it had 3G, I don't think that's really debatable among reasonable people, in part because, as Aegis pointed out, Europe has awful GPRS for non-3G data in a lot of places, rather than the USA's semi-awful EDGE.
This is undebatable because Aegis said so? No disrespect to Aegis but I would like to see a report from someone who has conducted a wider study on this matter.
So far in most of the reports from Europe that talk about iPhone sales I've seen, none specifically point out 3G as the sole problem.
The only European numbers we have to work with are activations from the first couple of weeks. We haven't heard anything since. We will have to wait until after the quarter is over to see how the iPhone is really performing in Europe.
Now we have the luxury of looking in the past and knowing how it all turns out. A few years back people really predicted that Apple was messing up for this reason or that.
The complaints against the iPod were in the absence of the full vision Apple had for the future of the iPod. Now looking back most of those complaints look silly. Its more likely than not the complaints leveled against the iPhone are in the same information vacuum of not being able to see Apple's future vision.
Apple's 'vision' isn't what we're discussing; the level of competition they're facing while trying to implement said vision is. And there isn't much doubt that this time around, Apple is facing much stronger competition than they did during the iPod's early days.
It's terribly easy to sit back and go "Apple always knows best", but they don't, really. G4 Cube anyone? Apple TV? It's a bit sycophantic to believe that Apple will always win big in the end with every single product... because they haven't. Because no one can.
I love Apple, but no one bats a thousand, not even Steven J. Apple's success isn't pre-ordained, they need to fully understand what they're up against and do all the common sense things right while implementing their vision. Because Nokia et al are no Creative or Diamond or blundering Sony.
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There is no catching up because Apple is taking a different path. Apple doesn't want to be like the others, they want to completely surpass them in functionality.
By not having features that many users insist upon as a precondition to actually buying an iPhone? Wow, that's sure some different path there.
It's not like the iPod, where having no voice recording or radio really wasn't that big a deal (and where Apple was dominant enough so that some missing features could easily be implemented via third-party aftermarket add-ons). It's a bit more like this:
UK guy: Ah, so there's the iPhone. Nice bit of kit, that.
UK guy #2: Yes. But no MMS.
UK guy: What?!? That's bollocks!
UK guy #2: And no 3G either.
UK guy: On a phone that expensive! What were they thinking?
UK guy #2: I don't know. But I'm thinking they can bloody well sod off.
You've got to put yourself in their shoes, Teno... the Euros have a lot of good alternatives when it comes to phones, and they've had those alternatives for quite some time. It's a sophisticated, well-established market. It isn't like digital music players, a very new category, where Apple could just walk in and write the rules. If the iPhone doesn't meet a certain expected minimum feature set, especially for its price range, prospective buyers across the pond just scratch their heads and go, "Very pretty UI" and then go buy something else. And that's exactly what they've been doing... voting with their feet.
But I guess every general tends to refight the last war. You (and Steve, apparently) seem to think that this particular war is called "iPod II". But it isn't, and if you try to wage it like it is, you won't do terribly well.
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This is undebatable because Aegis said so?
It's not debatable because GPRS undebatably sucks, and that's what much of Europe has to offer if your phone doesn't do 3G.
But hey, if you think 25-40 kbps delivers a simply terrific browsing experience, I have a 28.8 modem I'd be happy to sell you. How much are you willing to offer? I think I may be able to dig up an old black and white 13" CRT while I'm at it.
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So far in most of the reports from Europe that talk about iPhone sales I've seen, none specifically point out 3G as the sole problem.
Does lack of 3G have to be the sole problem for it to be contributing significantly to Apple's slow Euro iPhone sales? No. Does it have to be the sole problem for Apple to place a very high priority on getting a 3G iPhone to market, stat? Nope. So I'm unsure what you're quibbling about here. I've said, and others have said, that price is part of the problem. But so is 3G, and you hear this again and again and again.
So what more is there to say? Fix it, Apple. It's not insurmountably difficult. Samsung has already released a 3G smartphone with good battery life. If they can do it, Apple can too.
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The only European numbers we have to work with are activations from the first couple of weeks. We haven't heard anything since. We will have to wait until after the quarter is over to see how the iPhone is really performing in Europe.
Sorry, but if the launch numbers stink, the numbers following launch are even more unlikely to be satisfying. Are you hoping that the iPhone will suddenly 'catch a wave' and ramp up tremendously in popularity all of a sudden, automagically? Or is it much more likely that sales will slow after launch, as they did in the US? (which was ok here, as numbers were good in the US regardless).
The holidays may help a bit, but the problem with lackluster launches is, they brand a product as being "not all that". The Euros seem to be greeting the iPhone with a collective yawn, and first impressions matter quite a lot when trying to build brand. \
I dunno Teno, it seems like you're floating down the river Denial, whilst wishing upon a star. I'm sure it must be cool to be such a starry-eyed optimist, but back in the real world, I'm thinking Apple has to get off their can and start including some of the features that the Euros have been saying, again and again and again, are deal-breakers for them if they go missing, such as 3G and MMS. 'Vision' is great, but you also have to listen to your customers.
It's not a particularly romantic viewpoint, sure, but I'm a stockholder, not a dreamer.
[QUOTE=TenoBell;1186705]I'll put it this way. Someone can read general information about my profession on the internet. But that does not make them very knowledgeable or proficient in what I do everyday. They are not actively involved in the details and minutia and problem solving that I deal with. So they will not have earned the experience or knowledge base that I've earned from doing it everyday.
The person who works in flash or battery manufacture everyday will have experience and a knowledge base much richer and deeper than either of us will have from reading about it on the internet.
That's very true. But even without experience in the industry, articles in journals such as:
will tell you all you NEED to know, to understand what's happening. there are others as well. You don't need to know the minutia of the technology, all you need to know is the business aspect, and a basic understanding of the technologies.
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My point is that all of these factors collectively (including 3G) effect how the iPhone is received. Right now there is no hard evidence which may effect sales more than any other.
Nothing hard right now. I'll grant that, but it does point that way. i'm just saying that it accounts for a large portions of the loss in sales, possibly the largest. Therefore, it's the most significant. It's one that Apple can address, and could have.
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Right now we are only looking at sales for the month of November. The Touch provided people a choice. People who wanted a multi-touch device but did not want an iPhone have the choice to use a multi-touch device but keep their own phone.
When the iPhone was launched in the US we did not have that choice.
True again, I won't argue these points, but I don't believe they make up as much of the difference you do.
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Between the UK, France,a and Germany a couple hundred thousand iPhones over a months isn't a huge number of sales.
Now we have the luxury of looking in the past and knowing how it all turns out. A few years back people really predicted that Apple was messing up for this reason or that.
The complaints against the iPod were in the absence of the full vision Apple had for the future of the iPod. Now looking back most of those complaints look silly. Its more likely than not the complaints leveled against the iPhone are in the same information vacuum of not being able to see Apple's future vision.
There is no catching up because Apple is taking a different path. Apple doesn't want to be like the others, they want to completely surpass them in functionality. To accomplish this the current iPhone is the beginning of a new user interface foundation to build functionality upon.
This is undebatable because Aegis said so? No disrespect to Aegis but I would like to see a report from someone who has conducted a wider study on this matter.
So far in most of the reports from Europe that talk about iPhone sales I've seen, none specifically point out 3G as the sole problem.
The only European numbers we have to work with are activations from the first couple of weeks. We haven't heard anything since. We will have to wait until after the quarter is over to see how the iPhone is really performing in Europe.
iPod sales were good from day one. Back then, the NYTimes had a section in their Monday business section that included a box with reports about electronics sales. there were four catagories. each rotated one week over the month.
One of those catagories was digital music players. Shortly after the iPod arrived, it made it to the list. I watched the percentages creep up each month. It was pretty exciting!
By the time Apple set up the iTunes store, it was at 38% of HDD based players. This was even before the official Windows model.
I also remember Jobs saying that it would be a nice little product for Apple when they first introduced it. I truly believe that he had NO idea it would become such a big thing.
As far as activations and iPhone sales in Europe go. It's not too much to expect that, as in the US, sales will go down after the first surge in sales. The holiday may bring that up, but that will happen in parallel here as well. It's the proportion that we're concerned with.
Apple's 'vision' isn't what we're discussing; the level of competition they're facing while trying to implement said vision is. And there isn't much doubt that this time around, Apple is facing much stronger competition than they did during the iPod's early days.
At the very least they face much more entrenched competition. How good their competition is will be determined in the future. So far no other company has enter the mobile phone market this late in the race and caused such a stir in the industry.
I understand Baggins they don't run their multi-billion dollar company the way you would run yours. But their isn't much we can do about that.
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It's terribly easy to sit back and go "Apple always knows best", but they don't, really. G4 Cube anyone? Apple TV? It's a bit sycophantic to believe that Apple will always win big in the end with every single product... because they haven't. Because no one can.
I never said Apple knows best, or that the iPhone is ordained to be a big hit. I've just said that Apple has a vision. That vision follows a different path than others have taken. We will have to wait to see what that vision will produce and how it will be accepted.
I'm saying people have doubted Apple's choices before. For the most part things have worked out so far.
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It's not like the iPod, where having no voice recording or radio really wasn't that big a deal (and where Apple was dominant enough so that some missing features could easily be implemented via third-party aftermarket add-ons). It's a bit more like this:
At the time quite a few thought these were features people would demand. Now we can look back and see they were no big deal.
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Sorry, but if the launch numbers stink, the numbers following launch are even more unlikely to be satisfying. Are you hoping that the iPhone will suddenly 'catch a wave' and ramp up tremendously in popularity all of a sudden, automagically? Or is it much more likely that sales will slow after launch, as they did in the US? (which was ok here, as numbers were good in the US regardless).
Well yeah, what rule says that all of the iPhones that will ever be sold will have to be sold in its first few weeks and then people stop buying them. No one would expect a Nokia phone to sell most of what it will sell in its first few weeks and then people stop buying them.
The numbers only stink because they are being compared to the US numbers which the Euro numbers were never going to be. People had stratospheric expectations. The Euro launch was more in line with how mobile phones generally sell. I cannot think of any other phone that sold 200,000 units in two days, its an unrealistic expectation. As contracts run out and people look for new phones the iPhone will be an option they can choose.
Still no one knew the iPod was going to be what it has become today. People did make dire prediction about what the iPod was missing and how competitors were going to make cheaper mp3's that were good enough to stop the iPod.
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It's not too much to expect that, as in the US, sales will go down after the first surge in sales. The holiday may bring that up, but that will happen in parallel here as well. It's the proportion that we're concerned with.
The iPhone's initial surge was larger than just about every other phone. Even if it was smaller in Europe than in the US its a good start. Euro iPhone sales are slow in comparison to its own US sales not in comparison to rival smartphone sales.
Still no one knew the iPod was going to be what it has become today. People did make dire prediction about what the iPod was missing and how competitors were going to make cheaper mp3's that were good enough to stop the iPod.
It's what I said. No one knew. At least Jobs didn't seem to have a clue.
But that was also an also ran business (that of digital music players, that is). Apple's new player, and later iTunes, the store, helped to bring it up for everyone, even those who have lagged far behind. Even they are selling far more players than they did before as the industry matured.
But the cellphone industry was mature by the time Apple's phone was introduced. Apple could not make its own technological standards, or pricing for services that everyone else had to follow.
About the only thing they could do was to come up with a nice form factor, and excellent software, well thought out. Not that it doesn't mean anything, but there are technologies that Apple simply hasn't bothered with, that many people willing to spend more for a phone have come to expect.
And Apple has also tripped on the software front as well. What's with the lack of editing? The lack of global delete for mail? How come no horizontal keyboard, except for Safari? As well as others, such as lack of MMS, IM, etc?
Oversight? I don't think so. Jobs even gave a very poor reason why the keyboard isn't horizontal as well.
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The iPhone's initial surge was larger than just about every other phone. Even if it was smaller in Europe than in the US its a good start. Euro iPhone sales are slow in comparison to its own US sales not in comparison to rival smartphone sales.
The iPhone has been one of the most hyped of all phones as well, and Apple is hot, as Moto wasn't when the Razr came out. That's most of the reason.
At the very least they face much more entrenched competition. How good their competition is will be determined in the future. So far no other company has enter the mobile phone market this late in the race and caused such a stir in the industry.
The difference between this and the iPod is that Apple is taking on a mature market and mature competition along with it, whereas they weren't when they were establishing the iPod. And while hype has been good for Apple, the worrying aspect is that despite said HUGE hype, the iPhone still isn't doing well in Europe. \
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I understand Baggins they don't run their multi-billion dollar company the way you would run yours. But their isn't much we can do about that.
It isn't a matter of them doing it 'my way', as Sinatra would say. It's a matter of them listening to their customers, or not. Call me crazy, but I think doing the former just might help.
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I'm saying people have doubted Apple's choices before. For the most part things have worked out so far.
I'd 'trust in Apple' on faith a lot more if they were doing more of the basic things they need to do to crack the Euro market. But who knows, maybe deep in the bowels of Fortress Cupertino, Steve has finally gotten the message and is screaming at his lieutenants to get him a 3G iPhone with all the trimmings.. stat! Or maybe his head is still buried in the sand and he still thinks he can wait until late '08... we'll see. I guess it'll all come down to how many Euro sales he's willing to lose, since he knows that he has to have a 3G iPhone for Asia.
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At the time quite a few thought these were features people would demand. Now we can look back and see they were no big deal.
Again, you're refighting the iPod war, and its not the same situation. That was a new market, the cellphone market is an established and mature one. Customers have many alternatives to the iPhone, and as has been pointed out repeatedly to you, GPRS for data simply stinks as a user experience. Apple shouldn't be thinking, "Well, we got to write the rulebook for the mp3 player market, why should this be any different", they need to recognize that this is a very different pond they're swimming in, with much bigger fish.
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Well yeah, what rule says that all of the iPhones that will ever be sold will have to be sold in its first few weeks and then people stop buying them. No one would expect a Nokia phone to sell most of what it will sell in its first few weeks and then people stop buying them.
There's no rule, but let's face it, when you hype something to hell like Apple has, you expect a great launch, and steady but lower numbers after that. Only the Euro launch hasn't gone well. So now the numbers after that are supposed to be great? Get real.
But hey, you know what might just make the numbers great? Giving the Euro customers the kind of product they've been asking for...
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The numbers only stink because they are being compared to the US numbers which the Euro numbers were never going to be. People had stratospheric expectations. The Euro launch was more in line with how mobile phones generally sell. I cannot think of any other phone that sold 200,000 units in two days, its an unrealistic expectation. As contracts run out and people look for new phones the iPhone will be an option they can choose.
I actually partially agree with you, the iPhone was never going to sell quite as well as it did in the US, simply because the average Euro customer is more sophisticated and demanding than the average US customer, the alternative phones are better, and because US EDGE provides a better (though still slow) browsing experience than ghastly Euro GPRS. That said, the launch numbers in the UK and Germany are low enough to be disappointing EVEN WITH one taking that into account.
And regarding Apple thinking Euro GPRS would be 'good enough' as a user experience for browsing... what were they thinking?!?
It's hard to feel sorry for them on this one, they seem to have definitely miscalculated, and when competing in a mature market against large, entrenched competitors, there are consequences for doing so. As Apple is understanding better by now.
You'd have to ask the manufacturer. It's hardly in their best interest to quote battery life stats that are nowhere near reality, though, as they'd just get hammered for it in the reviews.
Are you kidding? I've NEVER had a phone that has gotten even half the quoted battery life. Battery life quotes are a complete scam.
Are you kidding? I've NEVER had a phone that has gotten even half the quoted battery life. Battery life quotes are a complete scam.
They aren't a scam. It's just that people want to know specific numbers that aren't realistic in actual use.
For example talk time. If you took your phone and just talked through the entire time, you'd probably come to around the rated talk time. But, when you don't do that (and who does?) then talk time will be derated by the other activities you use the phone for. Even just not using the phone, but leaving it on will derate the talktime, because the receiver is on.
So each of the parts of the ratings are listed as though it's the only thing that will be done, which is never the case.
And people seem to forget that they are doing other things that run the battery down.
Are you kidding? I've NEVER had a phone that has gotten even half the quoted battery life. Battery life quotes are a complete scam.
Actually, the LG cellphone I have routinely beats the published batt life specs by a bit... the specs are actually a little conservative.
Ditto for the Samsung Blackjack I... Samsung claimed 3 hours talk time for that one in the specs, but AnandTech did a study where it actually got 4 hours, 11 minutes of talk time. Yes, with 3G on.
There are always exceptions... I believe that the Motorola Q failed to get its claimed battery life until some software updates came out for it. But by and large, companies don't like to miss their batt life specs by a mile, because no one likes their product to be known as "that sh**y phone that has crappy battery life." \
It's simply so easy to return a phone within the 30 day guarantee period that most (US) carriers have these days, and phones with unexpectedly short batt life tend to come back. But if you personally have had a run of bad luck, I feel for ya, though you can always return the phone in that time period if you're unhappy with it.
And Apple has also tripped on the software front as well. What's with the lack of editing? The lack of global delete for mail? How come no horizontal keyboard, except for Safari? As well as others, such as lack of MMS, IM, etc?
Oversight? I don't think so. Jobs even gave a very poor reason why the keyboard isn't horizontal as well.
Yeah, the lack of a landscape virtual keyboard, except in Safari, has really bothered me as well. I don't have particularly large fingers, but even I find typing accurately on the teensy tiny keys on the portrait keyboard to be a royal pain.
I hear it gets better after you 'get used to it' (I've only borrowed iPhones for short periods of time or played with them in stores), but somehow, I don't really see it getting that much better. It's just tooooo small. The landscape vboard in comparison seems like a lot less hassle.
Bums me out that Steve apparently thinks that the current setup is the way to go, but somehow it doesn't totally surprise me. \
And Apple has also tripped on the software front as well. Oversight? I don't think so. Jobs even gave a very poor reason why the keyboard isn't horizontal as well.
I certainly hope to see these functions added in the near future. To the fact that none of us were in the room when these decisions were made the reasons to their absence is only conjecture. There is no way for us to know if it was oversight or by design.
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And while hype has been good for Apple, the worrying aspect is that despite said HUGE hype, the iPhone still isn't doing well in Europe.
The iPhone Isn't selling well in Europe based on what measurement? Is it being outsold by every other smartphone available? Is it not making a profit for Apple?
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Again, you're refighting the iPod war, and its not the same situation.
I'm not directly comparing the mp3 and mobile phone markets. Obviously they are very different. I'm comparing the way people have doubted Apple and its direction vs what the results have been in the past.
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Steve has finally gotten the message and is screaming at his lieutenants to get him a 3G iPhone with all the trimmings.. stat! Or maybe his head is still buried in the sand and he still thinks he can wait until late '08...
Once again they are not running their multi-billion dollar company the way you would run yours. As far as I can tell nothing is wrong with that.
I certainly hope to see these functions added in the near future.
Glad you agree there. It'll definitely improve the user experience.
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The iPhone Isn't selling well in Europe based on what measurement?
I dunno... sales, maybe?
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I'm not directly comparing the mp3 and mobile phone markets. Obviously they are very different. I'm comparing the way people have doubted Apple and its direction vs what the results have been in the past.
And I'm saying that the past isn't a reliable indicator in that regard, due to the fact that its a very different fight and a very different market this time around, and, as Mel pointed out, Apple does not necessarily have the entire future laid out. Sometimes a good product just takes off in a way you didn't anticipate (iPod), sometimes you put a good product out there and it still fails. Apple does what any good company does... it makes a good product, positions and markets it as well as it can (usually), and hopes it does well.
Nothing is pre-ordained. One could argue that the G4 Cube and Apple TV were/are actually good products, but for various reasons they failed to take off. No 'crystal ball' there. So all you can really do is try to do all the right things, in order to improve your chances.
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Once again they are not running their multi-billion dollar company the way you would run yours. As far as I can tell nothing is wrong with that.
Once again, its not about them doing things my way, its about them listening to their customers. If they did a bit better in that regard, their chances of success would definitely increase.
I certainly hope to see these functions added in the near future. To the fact that none of us were in the room when these decisions were made the reasons to their absence is only conjecture. There is no way for us to know if it was oversight or by design.
If it was simple oversight, or lack of time, they have had plenty of it by now, with all of the complaints on every site I've ever been to that discussed the iPhone, which were otherwise favorable.
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The iPhone Isn't selling well in Europe based on what measurement? Is it being outsold by every other smartphone available? Is it not making a profit for Apple?
If it was simple oversight, or lack of time, they have had plenty of it by now, with all of the complaints on every site I've ever been to that discussed the iPhone, which were otherwise favorable.
Knowing Apple they are waiting to release a major software update with subsequent media fanfare.
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You're beating a dead horse here.
Its a fair question that no one has directly answered. Its unrealistic and untrue to say the iPhone has to sell 200,000 in two days to be a success. The iPhone won't sell 200,000 its first two days in Asian either. Does that mean its a failure in Asia? Its likely half of worldwide iPhone sales will be in the US. Does that make the other half of sales a failure?
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Glad you agree there. It'll definitely improve the user experience.
I've never said I didn't think Apple needed to add the functionality. I'm saying I can understand the design model they are following. Most mobile companies pile in features with little though to the ease of use. For Apple ease of use is just as if not more important than a long feature list. Features will be added as Apple figures out how to add them without sacrificing ease of use. It requires us to have patience but in the end if it all works better its worth the wait.
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And I'm saying that the past isn't a reliable indicator in that regard, due to the fact that its a very different fight and a very different market this time around, and, as Mel pointed out, Apple does not necessarily have the entire future laid out.
The mp3 market in general was new at the same time the iPod was new. So no one knew for sure how it was all going to work out. But I don't think it was an accident that everything with the iPod worked out so well. The fact that it has continued to work out well and none of Apple's competitors have even come close.
When the iPhone launched Steve Jobs said that Apple was already designing the next version and they are already thinking about the version after that. They are at least two to three years ahead of what we currently have.
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One could argue that the G4 Cube and Apple TV were/are actually good products, but for various reasons they failed to take off.
They both failed to take off because Apple did not give them what they needed to succeed. Apple TV still has a chance if Apple allows it to grow. So far the iPhone is not in the same position and has room to grow.
Knowing Apple they are waiting to release a major software update with subsequent media fanfare.
We can all hope for that.
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Its a fair question that no one has directly answered. Its unrealistic and untrue to say the iPhone has to sell 200,000 in two days to be a success. The iPhone won't sell 200,000 its first two days in Asian either. Does that mean its a failure in Asia? Its likely half of worldwide iPhone sales will be in the US. Does that make the other half of sales a failure?
We answered it, at least I tried to, as best as possible, from knowing what we do know.
I never said that 200,000 sales in two days was required. To my thinking, if the numbers were double what they were, it would have been pretty good. As they are, they are disappointing. I simply think that Apple and the operators are putting a good face on it., I'm not saying that it's a disaster either.
Knowing Apple they are waiting to release a major software update with subsequent media fanfare.
"When you wish... upon a staaaaar... doesn't matter.... who you aaaare...."
Seriously though, while I'd like to be as much the starry-eyed optimist here as you, its just as likely that Stevie J has decided something along the lines of, "E-mail is the way to send pics, MMS is just so outdated. I've decided we don't need it anymore, so I'll set a new trend!". And so forth.
So, we may just as likely be waiting an awfully loooong time for some of those very basic features that Apple omitted (which'll show up only after Apple finally wakes up and understands that they can't Jedi mind-trick cellphone buyers into wanting what Steve thinks they should want). And while we're waitin', many potential iPhone buyers will simply scratch their heads and go buy something else, until and unless Apple figures it out. Wheee. \
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Its a fair question that no one has directly answered. Its unrealistic and untrue to say the iPhone has to sell 200,000 in two days to be a success. The iPhone won't sell 200,000 its first two days in Asian either. Does that mean its a failure in Asia? Its likely half of worldwide iPhone sales will be in the US. Does that make the other half of sales a failure?
Sigh. Don't know how many times you need to be told this Teno, but:
While Apple hasn't released official numbers on early sales of its iPhone in the UK, new reports suggest the company may face difficulty replicating the level of success it experienced with the US launch of the handset back in June.
According to a recent report by the Register citing reliable channel sources, exclusive UK iPhone carrier O2 has activated just 26,500 iPhones since its launch two weeks ago, well below expectations of about 100,000 units.
"Carphone Warehouse, the main retail outlet for Apple's hot item [in the UK], had taken stock of 50,000 iPhones, but had only managed to shift around 11,000 in the first weekend," the report states. "O2 has over 400 stores and Apple just 12 in the UK. Phone industry sources estimated that 25,000 units might have shifted in that first weekend - but that now seems optimistic."
and
While T-Mobile's initial launch saw only 10,000 iPhones sold in Germany on the first day, many of the carrier's 700 retail stores continue to reflect a "solid" demand of 15-20 iPhones sold per week, Abramsky says.
It's not worth beating the dead horse anymore Teno... spin is pointless. Apple did not have a good European launch, except in France. So why argue on and on and on when it's obvious that no one is buying what you're spinning? \
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I've never said I didn't think Apple needed to add the functionality. I'm saying I can understand the design model they are following. Most mobile companies pile in features with little though to the ease of use.
I agree that cramming silly or useless features in for the sake of having more features is counterproductive. Unfortunately, that's not what we're talking about here.
We're talking about features - like 3G, MMS, GPS, voice-dialing, a reasonable Bluetooth stack - that are considered BASIC and EXPECTED by most prospective buyers looking at a phone in the iPhone's price range. Tell me, would most people these days purchase a reasonably expensive computer that only did dial-up networking? Had a black-and-white screen? Or would those be 'deal-breakers' for you? Starting to understand the difference between a superfluous feature and one you really do need to compete well in a tough market? Alrighty then.
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For Apple ease of use is just as if not more important than a long feature list. Features will be added as Apple figures out how to add them without sacrificing ease of use. It requires us to have patience but in the end if it all works better its worth the wait.
That makes sense... oh wait, no, it doesn't. Because 3G isn't an ease-of-use issue at all, it's just a faster way to transmit data. And because most of the other features mentioned are already quite easy to use.
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The mp3 market in general was new at the same time the iPod was new. So no one knew for sure how it was all going to work out. But I don't think it was an accident that everything with the iPod worked out so well. The fact that it has continued to work out well and none of Apple's competitors have even come close.
When the iPhone launched Steve Jobs said that Apple was already designing the next version and they are already thinking about the version after that. They are at least two to three years ahead of what we currently have.
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[The G4 Cube and Apple TV] both failed to take off because Apple did not give them what they needed to succeed. Apple TV still has a chance if Apple allows it to grow. So far the iPhone is not in the same position and has room to grow.
Reading these two quotes back-to-back, they appear to contradict each other. On the one hand, we have Teno saying " I don't think it was an accident that everything with the iPod worked out so well", meaning Apple is halfway to being a tech Nostradamus and can see the future accurately.
BUT, at the same time, we have Teno saying, "[the G4 Cube and Apple TV] both failed to take off because Apple did not give them what they needed to succeed." But HOW is that possible, Teno, if Apple is psychic and far-seeing enough to work out the entire arc of the iPod's success, hmmm?
Seems like quite a contradiction there. So maybe, just maybe, it might be more logical to subscribe to the notion that Apple simply takes their best shot at making a good product, like everyone else, and much of the result is still up to things like chance, timing, the competition, etc?
Sorry Teno, I don't believe in Stevie J's crystal ball. I think his instincts and taste are quite good, better than most of his competitors most of the time, but far from infallible. And since Steve doesn't really have a hotline to the spirit of Nostradamus, things like execution, and listening to customers (and well) will continue to matter a very great deal.
Not that that's not patently self-evident, right? So why quibble about it? \
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Originally Posted by Melgross
I never said that 200,000 sales in two days was required. To my thinking, if the [Euro] numbers were double what they were, it would have been pretty good. As they are, they are disappointing. I simply think that Apple and the operators are putting a good face on it., I'm not saying that it's a disaster either.
Agreed, that's pretty much the way things stand. Hopefully Apple can price drop and/or feature upgrade in Europe sooner rather than later. If they do, I believe things will turn around for them there quite significantly.
Comments
Fine enough I'm no more a chip manufacturer than you. Much of what you say sounds like your opinion to support your position more than it sounds like you have any real information of how these processes work.
Tsk, tsk Teno, I think its been well-established to long time AI posters like yourself that Mel does have some experience in manufacturing and electronics... that has been his life's work, after all. He's not walking around all day in an Intel chip-fab bunny suit, but he obviously has a good idea of what he's talking about, certainly a lot more than the average person.
Not great in comparison to what? A fair comparision cannot be made with US sales the circumstances between the two markets are very different.
Fair comparison, shmair comparison. Apple has publicly stated that they want to sell 10 million iPhones a year. Europe is one of the three major markets in the world where they could do so, the others being the US and Asia.
The US and Asia can take up some of the slack for poor European sales (that is, assuming Asian sales are not just as dismal as Euro sales have been so far), but even so, it's just common sense that Apple wants to move at least a couple of million iPhones a year in Europe. And from what we're seeing so far, it doesn't look like they're hitting those kinds of numbers.
You have a special knack for misquoting me. I never said the iPhone has lost no sales because of 3G. But there are a few other factors going on in Europe other than 3G.
No, you just like to give the strong impression that so few sales are lost due to no 3G that it doesn't matter. Possibly in the US it hasn't been that big a deal (though even there, a good argument could be made that iPhone sales would be EVEN BETTER if the iPhone had 3G), but in Europe it definitely does seem to be biting Apple in the keister, in conjunction with the pricing issues.
The same way Apple gave their competitors time to catch up with their good enough mp3 players....with FM radios, music rentals, and Plays For Sure.
Unfortunately, its not the same situation at all.
In the portable music player market, the established competition was either small and weak (Diamond, Creative) or extraordinarily incompetent (Sony, Compaq). In cell phones, this is not the case.
While the established players haven't been great at software, they are neither small, weak, or especially incompetent. Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG, etc are all huge, worldwide companies with tens of billions of dollars in yearly revenue (Nokia's worldwide revenue is about three times Apple's), and unlike, say, a Microsoft (who does cellphone software), they are quite focused on their cellphone business, as that is a core business for most of them. They have close relationships with all the major carriers (very important in this biz), and considerable resources to throw at making their own iPhone clones.
Not to take anything away from the iPod, but Apple was frankly facing either midgets or idiots in establishing that business. Comparing early-days iPod competitors to the established cellphone makers is like comparing a JV high school football team to Ohio State. They're still beatable, sure, but it's a lot harder.
Just as the iPod has always been a work in progress which never gave the competition a chance to catch up. I would venture the iPhone will be the same. By the time competitors have made what the iPhone was last year Apple will have moved on.
As an Apple stockholder, I hope so, but problem is, Apple is actually the one playing catch up in some key areas. No 3G. No MMS. No GPS. No voice-dialing. Very crippled bluetooth functionality. Apple needs to get those weaknesses addressed, and soon, otherwise they're just giving away selling points to the competition.
Seems no matter what success the iPhone achieves you will cling to the the idea it could have done "better" if it had 3G now. Your minds are permanently set on that no matter the facts that may point to the contrary. In a few months it'll no longer be an issue.
Our minds are set on that simply because the evidence points that way. And I guess because we choose reality over your spin. Yes, the iPhone would be doing better in Europe if it had 3G, I don't think that's really debatable among reasonable people, in part because, as Aegis pointed out, Europe has awful GPRS for non-3G data in a lot of places, rather than the USA's semi-awful EDGE.
It's all about user experience, and GPRS provides a sh***y one, frankly.
You are correct in that sometime next year it'll no longer be an issue, but it shouldn't have been an issue to begin with, at least for Europe. Samsung has a 3G smartphone out with good battery life. Apple has access to most of the same chipsets and batteries, and, with their software prowess, is almost certainly better at power management than Samsung likely is. So they should be able to do it too. They just didn't, that's all, and they're paying for it, as Euro sales are bearing out.
There's no need to spin the reality of the situation, and I'm sure Apple isn't doing so either behind closed doors. Rather, they're very likely trying to fix the situation by burning the midnight oil to get a 3G iPhone out ASAP. That's great, but it is a bit late, and I think an overemphasis on certain design priorities and perhaps a touch of arrogance figured into that. Hopefully they will learn from the experience.
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For example, you say that those who manufacture those products would differ with me. Based on what knowledge? You can go read about it yourself, as I suggested, and then come and argue some more, if you find me to be wrong in this.
I'll put it this way. Someone can read general information about my profession on the internet. But that does not make them very knowledgeable or proficient in what I do everyday. They are not actively involved in the details and minutia and problem solving that I deal with. So they will not have earned the experience or knowledge base that I've earned from doing it everyday.
The person who works in flash or battery manufacture everyday will have experience and a knowledge base much richer and deeper than either of us will have from reading about it on the internet.
Good points, but they still can't account for the vast difference in sales, just some of it.
My point is that all of these factors collectively (including 3G) effect how the iPhone is received. Right now there is no hard evidence which may effect sales more than any other.
For a short while, yes. But people who want a phone aren't going to buy the iTouch.
Right now we are only looking at sales for the month of November. The Touch provided people a choice. People who wanted a multi-touch device but did not want an iPhone have the choice to use a multi-touch device but keep their own phone.
When the iPhone was launched in the US we did not have that choice.
We'll see. That's not something you can quantify, because it hasn't happened yet
Between the UK, France,a and Germany a couple hundred thousand iPhones over a months isn't a huge number of sales.
In the portable music player market, the established competition was either small and weak (Diamond, Creative) or extraordinarily incompetent (Sony, Compaq). In cell phones, this is not the case.
Now we have the luxury of looking in the past and knowing how it all turns out. A few years back people really predicted that Apple was messing up for this reason or that.
The complaints against the iPod were in the absence of the full vision Apple had for the future of the iPod. Now looking back most of those complaints look silly. Its more likely than not the complaints leveled against the iPhone are in the same information vacuum of not being able to see Apple's future vision.
As an Apple stockholder, I hope so, but problem is, Apple is actually the one playing catch up in some key areas. No 3G. No MMS. No GPS. No voice-dialing. Very crippled bluetooth functionality. Apple needs to get those weaknesses addressed, and soon, otherwise they're just giving away selling points to the competition.
There is no catching up because Apple is taking a different path. Apple doesn't want to be like the others, they want to completely surpass them in functionality. To accomplish this the current iPhone is the beginning of a new user interface foundation to build functionality upon.
Our minds are set on that simply because the evidence points that way. And I guess because we choose reality over your spin. Yes, the iPhone would be doing better in Europe if it had 3G, I don't think that's really debatable among reasonable people, in part because, as Aegis pointed out, Europe has awful GPRS for non-3G data in a lot of places, rather than the USA's semi-awful EDGE.
This is undebatable because Aegis said so? No disrespect to Aegis but I would like to see a report from someone who has conducted a wider study on this matter.
So far in most of the reports from Europe that talk about iPhone sales I've seen, none specifically point out 3G as the sole problem.
The only European numbers we have to work with are activations from the first couple of weeks. We haven't heard anything since. We will have to wait until after the quarter is over to see how the iPhone is really performing in Europe.
Now we have the luxury of looking in the past and knowing how it all turns out. A few years back people really predicted that Apple was messing up for this reason or that.
The complaints against the iPod were in the absence of the full vision Apple had for the future of the iPod. Now looking back most of those complaints look silly. Its more likely than not the complaints leveled against the iPhone are in the same information vacuum of not being able to see Apple's future vision.
Apple's 'vision' isn't what we're discussing; the level of competition they're facing while trying to implement said vision is. And there isn't much doubt that this time around, Apple is facing much stronger competition than they did during the iPod's early days.
It's terribly easy to sit back and go "Apple always knows best", but they don't, really. G4 Cube anyone? Apple TV? It's a bit sycophantic to believe that Apple will always win big in the end with every single product... because they haven't. Because no one can.
I love Apple, but no one bats a thousand, not even Steven J. Apple's success isn't pre-ordained, they need to fully understand what they're up against and do all the common sense things right while implementing their vision. Because Nokia et al are no Creative or Diamond or blundering Sony.
There is no catching up because Apple is taking a different path. Apple doesn't want to be like the others, they want to completely surpass them in functionality.
By not having features that many users insist upon as a precondition to actually buying an iPhone? Wow, that's sure some different path there.
It's not like the iPod, where having no voice recording or radio really wasn't that big a deal (and where Apple was dominant enough so that some missing features could easily be implemented via third-party aftermarket add-ons). It's a bit more like this:
UK guy: Ah, so there's the iPhone. Nice bit of kit, that.
UK guy #2: Yes. But no MMS.
UK guy: What?!? That's bollocks!
UK guy #2: And no 3G either.
UK guy: On a phone that expensive! What were they thinking?
UK guy #2: I don't know. But I'm thinking they can bloody well sod off.
You've got to put yourself in their shoes, Teno... the Euros have a lot of good alternatives when it comes to phones, and they've had those alternatives for quite some time. It's a sophisticated, well-established market. It isn't like digital music players, a very new category, where Apple could just walk in and write the rules. If the iPhone doesn't meet a certain expected minimum feature set, especially for its price range, prospective buyers across the pond just scratch their heads and go, "Very pretty UI" and then go buy something else. And that's exactly what they've been doing... voting with their feet.
But I guess every general tends to refight the last war. You (and Steve, apparently) seem to think that this particular war is called "iPod II". But it isn't, and if you try to wage it like it is, you won't do terribly well.
This is undebatable because Aegis said so?
It's not debatable because GPRS undebatably sucks, and that's what much of Europe has to offer if your phone doesn't do 3G.
But hey, if you think 25-40 kbps delivers a simply terrific browsing experience, I have a 28.8 modem I'd be happy to sell you. How much are you willing to offer? I think I may be able to dig up an old black and white 13" CRT while I'm at it.
So far in most of the reports from Europe that talk about iPhone sales I've seen, none specifically point out 3G as the sole problem.
Does lack of 3G have to be the sole problem for it to be contributing significantly to Apple's slow Euro iPhone sales? No. Does it have to be the sole problem for Apple to place a very high priority on getting a 3G iPhone to market, stat? Nope. So I'm unsure what you're quibbling about here. I've said, and others have said, that price is part of the problem. But so is 3G, and you hear this again and again and again.
So what more is there to say? Fix it, Apple. It's not insurmountably difficult. Samsung has already released a 3G smartphone with good battery life. If they can do it, Apple can too.
The only European numbers we have to work with are activations from the first couple of weeks. We haven't heard anything since. We will have to wait until after the quarter is over to see how the iPhone is really performing in Europe.
Sorry, but if the launch numbers stink, the numbers following launch are even more unlikely to be satisfying. Are you hoping that the iPhone will suddenly 'catch a wave' and ramp up tremendously in popularity all of a sudden, automagically? Or is it much more likely that sales will slow after launch, as they did in the US? (which was ok here, as numbers were good in the US regardless).
The holidays may help a bit, but the problem with lackluster launches is, they brand a product as being "not all that". The Euros seem to be greeting the iPhone with a collective yawn, and first impressions matter quite a lot when trying to build brand.
I dunno Teno, it seems like you're floating down the river Denial, whilst wishing upon a star. I'm sure it must be cool to be such a starry-eyed optimist, but back in the real world, I'm thinking Apple has to get off their can and start including some of the features that the Euros have been saying, again and again and again, are deal-breakers for them if they go missing, such as 3G and MMS. 'Vision' is great, but you also have to listen to your customers.
It's not a particularly romantic viewpoint, sure, but I'm a stockholder, not a dreamer.
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The person who works in flash or battery manufacture everyday will have experience and a knowledge base much richer and deeper than either of us will have from reading about it on the internet.
That's very true. But even without experience in the industry, articles in journals such as:
http://www.eetimes.com/
will tell you all you NEED to know, to understand what's happening. there are others as well. You don't need to know the minutia of the technology, all you need to know is the business aspect, and a basic understanding of the technologies.
My point is that all of these factors collectively (including 3G) effect how the iPhone is received. Right now there is no hard evidence which may effect sales more than any other.
Nothing hard right now. I'll grant that, but it does point that way. i'm just saying that it accounts for a large portions of the loss in sales, possibly the largest. Therefore, it's the most significant. It's one that Apple can address, and could have.
Right now we are only looking at sales for the month of November. The Touch provided people a choice. People who wanted a multi-touch device but did not want an iPhone have the choice to use a multi-touch device but keep their own phone.
When the iPhone was launched in the US we did not have that choice.
True again, I won't argue these points, but I don't believe they make up as much of the difference you do.
Between the UK, France,a and Germany a couple hundred thousand iPhones over a months isn't a huge number of sales.
Well, yes, that's what I'm saying.
Now we have the luxury of looking in the past and knowing how it all turns out. A few years back people really predicted that Apple was messing up for this reason or that.
The complaints against the iPod were in the absence of the full vision Apple had for the future of the iPod. Now looking back most of those complaints look silly. Its more likely than not the complaints leveled against the iPhone are in the same information vacuum of not being able to see Apple's future vision.
There is no catching up because Apple is taking a different path. Apple doesn't want to be like the others, they want to completely surpass them in functionality. To accomplish this the current iPhone is the beginning of a new user interface foundation to build functionality upon.
This is undebatable because Aegis said so? No disrespect to Aegis but I would like to see a report from someone who has conducted a wider study on this matter.
So far in most of the reports from Europe that talk about iPhone sales I've seen, none specifically point out 3G as the sole problem.
The only European numbers we have to work with are activations from the first couple of weeks. We haven't heard anything since. We will have to wait until after the quarter is over to see how the iPhone is really performing in Europe.
iPod sales were good from day one. Back then, the NYTimes had a section in their Monday business section that included a box with reports about electronics sales. there were four catagories. each rotated one week over the month.
One of those catagories was digital music players. Shortly after the iPod arrived, it made it to the list. I watched the percentages creep up each month. It was pretty exciting!
By the time Apple set up the iTunes store, it was at 38% of HDD based players. This was even before the official Windows model.
I also remember Jobs saying that it would be a nice little product for Apple when they first introduced it. I truly believe that he had NO idea it would become such a big thing.
As far as activations and iPhone sales in Europe go. It's not too much to expect that, as in the US, sales will go down after the first surge in sales. The holiday may bring that up, but that will happen in parallel here as well. It's the proportion that we're concerned with.
Apple's 'vision' isn't what we're discussing; the level of competition they're facing while trying to implement said vision is. And there isn't much doubt that this time around, Apple is facing much stronger competition than they did during the iPod's early days.
At the very least they face much more entrenched competition. How good their competition is will be determined in the future. So far no other company has enter the mobile phone market this late in the race and caused such a stir in the industry.
I understand Baggins they don't run their multi-billion dollar company the way you would run yours. But their isn't much we can do about that.
It's terribly easy to sit back and go "Apple always knows best", but they don't, really. G4 Cube anyone? Apple TV? It's a bit sycophantic to believe that Apple will always win big in the end with every single product... because they haven't. Because no one can.
I never said Apple knows best, or that the iPhone is ordained to be a big hit. I've just said that Apple has a vision. That vision follows a different path than others have taken. We will have to wait to see what that vision will produce and how it will be accepted.
I'm saying people have doubted Apple's choices before. For the most part things have worked out so far.
It's not like the iPod, where having no voice recording or radio really wasn't that big a deal (and where Apple was dominant enough so that some missing features could easily be implemented via third-party aftermarket add-ons). It's a bit more like this:
At the time quite a few thought these were features people would demand. Now we can look back and see they were no big deal.
Sorry, but if the launch numbers stink, the numbers following launch are even more unlikely to be satisfying. Are you hoping that the iPhone will suddenly 'catch a wave' and ramp up tremendously in popularity all of a sudden, automagically? Or is it much more likely that sales will slow after launch, as they did in the US? (which was ok here, as numbers were good in the US regardless).
Well yeah, what rule says that all of the iPhones that will ever be sold will have to be sold in its first few weeks and then people stop buying them. No one would expect a Nokia phone to sell most of what it will sell in its first few weeks and then people stop buying them.
The numbers only stink because they are being compared to the US numbers which the Euro numbers were never going to be. People had stratospheric expectations. The Euro launch was more in line with how mobile phones generally sell. I cannot think of any other phone that sold 200,000 units in two days, its an unrealistic expectation. As contracts run out and people look for new phones the iPhone will be an option they can choose.
iPod sales were good from day one.
Still no one knew the iPod was going to be what it has become today. People did make dire prediction about what the iPod was missing and how competitors were going to make cheaper mp3's that were good enough to stop the iPod.
It's not too much to expect that, as in the US, sales will go down after the first surge in sales. The holiday may bring that up, but that will happen in parallel here as well. It's the proportion that we're concerned with.
The iPhone's initial surge was larger than just about every other phone. Even if it was smaller in Europe than in the US its a good start. Euro iPhone sales are slow in comparison to its own US sales not in comparison to rival smartphone sales.
Still no one knew the iPod was going to be what it has become today. People did make dire prediction about what the iPod was missing and how competitors were going to make cheaper mp3's that were good enough to stop the iPod.
It's what I said. No one knew. At least Jobs didn't seem to have a clue.
But that was also an also ran business (that of digital music players, that is). Apple's new player, and later iTunes, the store, helped to bring it up for everyone, even those who have lagged far behind. Even they are selling far more players than they did before as the industry matured.
But the cellphone industry was mature by the time Apple's phone was introduced. Apple could not make its own technological standards, or pricing for services that everyone else had to follow.
About the only thing they could do was to come up with a nice form factor, and excellent software, well thought out. Not that it doesn't mean anything, but there are technologies that Apple simply hasn't bothered with, that many people willing to spend more for a phone have come to expect.
And Apple has also tripped on the software front as well. What's with the lack of editing? The lack of global delete for mail? How come no horizontal keyboard, except for Safari? As well as others, such as lack of MMS, IM, etc?
Oversight? I don't think so. Jobs even gave a very poor reason why the keyboard isn't horizontal as well.
The iPhone's initial surge was larger than just about every other phone. Even if it was smaller in Europe than in the US its a good start. Euro iPhone sales are slow in comparison to its own US sales not in comparison to rival smartphone sales.
The iPhone has been one of the most hyped of all phones as well, and Apple is hot, as Moto wasn't when the Razr came out. That's most of the reason.
At the very least they face much more entrenched competition. How good their competition is will be determined in the future. So far no other company has enter the mobile phone market this late in the race and caused such a stir in the industry.
The difference between this and the iPod is that Apple is taking on a mature market and mature competition along with it, whereas they weren't when they were establishing the iPod. And while hype has been good for Apple, the worrying aspect is that despite said HUGE hype, the iPhone still isn't doing well in Europe.
I understand Baggins they don't run their multi-billion dollar company the way you would run yours. But their isn't much we can do about that.
It isn't a matter of them doing it 'my way', as Sinatra would say. It's a matter of them listening to their customers, or not. Call me crazy, but I think doing the former just might help.
I'm saying people have doubted Apple's choices before. For the most part things have worked out so far.
I'd 'trust in Apple' on faith a lot more if they were doing more of the basic things they need to do to crack the Euro market. But who knows, maybe deep in the bowels of Fortress Cupertino, Steve has finally gotten the message and is screaming at his lieutenants to get him a 3G iPhone with all the trimmings.. stat! Or maybe his head is still buried in the sand and he still thinks he can wait until late '08... we'll see. I guess it'll all come down to how many Euro sales he's willing to lose, since he knows that he has to have a 3G iPhone for Asia.
At the time quite a few thought these were features people would demand. Now we can look back and see they were no big deal.
Again, you're refighting the iPod war, and its not the same situation. That was a new market, the cellphone market is an established and mature one. Customers have many alternatives to the iPhone, and as has been pointed out repeatedly to you, GPRS for data simply stinks as a user experience. Apple shouldn't be thinking, "Well, we got to write the rulebook for the mp3 player market, why should this be any different", they need to recognize that this is a very different pond they're swimming in, with much bigger fish.
Well yeah, what rule says that all of the iPhones that will ever be sold will have to be sold in its first few weeks and then people stop buying them. No one would expect a Nokia phone to sell most of what it will sell in its first few weeks and then people stop buying them.
There's no rule, but let's face it, when you hype something to hell like Apple has, you expect a great launch, and steady but lower numbers after that. Only the Euro launch hasn't gone well. So now the numbers after that are supposed to be great? Get real.
But hey, you know what might just make the numbers great? Giving the Euro customers the kind of product they've been asking for...
The numbers only stink because they are being compared to the US numbers which the Euro numbers were never going to be. People had stratospheric expectations. The Euro launch was more in line with how mobile phones generally sell. I cannot think of any other phone that sold 200,000 units in two days, its an unrealistic expectation. As contracts run out and people look for new phones the iPhone will be an option they can choose.
I actually partially agree with you, the iPhone was never going to sell quite as well as it did in the US, simply because the average Euro customer is more sophisticated and demanding than the average US customer, the alternative phones are better, and because US EDGE provides a better (though still slow) browsing experience than ghastly Euro GPRS. That said, the launch numbers in the UK and Germany are low enough to be disappointing EVEN WITH one taking that into account.
And regarding Apple thinking Euro GPRS would be 'good enough' as a user experience for browsing... what were they thinking?!?
It's hard to feel sorry for them on this one, they seem to have definitely miscalculated, and when competing in a mature market against large, entrenched competitors, there are consequences for doing so. As Apple is understanding better by now.
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You'd have to ask the manufacturer. It's hardly in their best interest to quote battery life stats that are nowhere near reality, though, as they'd just get hammered for it in the reviews.
Are you kidding? I've NEVER had a phone that has gotten even half the quoted battery life. Battery life quotes are a complete scam.
Are you kidding? I've NEVER had a phone that has gotten even half the quoted battery life. Battery life quotes are a complete scam.
They aren't a scam. It's just that people want to know specific numbers that aren't realistic in actual use.
For example talk time. If you took your phone and just talked through the entire time, you'd probably come to around the rated talk time. But, when you don't do that (and who does?) then talk time will be derated by the other activities you use the phone for. Even just not using the phone, but leaving it on will derate the talktime, because the receiver is on.
So each of the parts of the ratings are listed as though it's the only thing that will be done, which is never the case.
And people seem to forget that they are doing other things that run the battery down.
Are you kidding? I've NEVER had a phone that has gotten even half the quoted battery life. Battery life quotes are a complete scam.
Actually, the LG cellphone I have routinely beats the published batt life specs by a bit... the specs are actually a little conservative.
Ditto for the Samsung Blackjack I... Samsung claimed 3 hours talk time for that one in the specs, but AnandTech did a study where it actually got 4 hours, 11 minutes of talk time. Yes, with 3G on.
There are always exceptions... I believe that the Motorola Q failed to get its claimed battery life until some software updates came out for it. But by and large, companies don't like to miss their batt life specs by a mile, because no one likes their product to be known as "that sh**y phone that has crappy battery life."
It's simply so easy to return a phone within the 30 day guarantee period that most (US) carriers have these days, and phones with unexpectedly short batt life tend to come back. But if you personally have had a run of bad luck, I feel for ya, though you can always return the phone in that time period if you're unhappy with it.
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And Apple has also tripped on the software front as well. What's with the lack of editing? The lack of global delete for mail? How come no horizontal keyboard, except for Safari? As well as others, such as lack of MMS, IM, etc?
Oversight? I don't think so. Jobs even gave a very poor reason why the keyboard isn't horizontal as well.
Yeah, the lack of a landscape virtual keyboard, except in Safari, has really bothered me as well. I don't have particularly large fingers, but even I find typing accurately on the teensy tiny keys on the portrait keyboard to be a royal pain.
I hear it gets better after you 'get used to it' (I've only borrowed iPhones for short periods of time or played with them in stores), but somehow, I don't really see it getting that much better. It's just tooooo small.
Bums me out that Steve apparently thinks that the current setup is the way to go, but somehow it doesn't totally surprise me.
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And Apple has also tripped on the software front as well. Oversight? I don't think so. Jobs even gave a very poor reason why the keyboard isn't horizontal as well.
I certainly hope to see these functions added in the near future. To the fact that none of us were in the room when these decisions were made the reasons to their absence is only conjecture. There is no way for us to know if it was oversight or by design.
And while hype has been good for Apple, the worrying aspect is that despite said HUGE hype, the iPhone still isn't doing well in Europe.
The iPhone Isn't selling well in Europe based on what measurement? Is it being outsold by every other smartphone available? Is it not making a profit for Apple?
Again, you're refighting the iPod war, and its not the same situation.
I'm not directly comparing the mp3 and mobile phone markets. Obviously they are very different. I'm comparing the way people have doubted Apple and its direction vs what the results have been in the past.
Steve has finally gotten the message and is screaming at his lieutenants to get him a 3G iPhone with all the trimmings.. stat! Or maybe his head is still buried in the sand and he still thinks he can wait until late '08...
Once again they are not running their multi-billion dollar company the way you would run yours. As far as I can tell nothing is wrong with that.
I certainly hope to see these functions added in the near future.
Glad you agree there. It'll definitely improve the user experience.
The iPhone Isn't selling well in Europe based on what measurement?
I dunno... sales, maybe?
I'm not directly comparing the mp3 and mobile phone markets. Obviously they are very different. I'm comparing the way people have doubted Apple and its direction vs what the results have been in the past.
And I'm saying that the past isn't a reliable indicator in that regard, due to the fact that its a very different fight and a very different market this time around, and, as Mel pointed out, Apple does not necessarily have the entire future laid out. Sometimes a good product just takes off in a way you didn't anticipate (iPod), sometimes you put a good product out there and it still fails. Apple does what any good company does... it makes a good product, positions and markets it as well as it can (usually), and hopes it does well.
Nothing is pre-ordained. One could argue that the G4 Cube and Apple TV were/are actually good products, but for various reasons they failed to take off. No 'crystal ball' there. So all you can really do is try to do all the right things, in order to improve your chances.
Once again they are not running their multi-billion dollar company the way you would run yours. As far as I can tell nothing is wrong with that.
Once again, its not about them doing things my way, its about them listening to their customers. If they did a bit better in that regard, their chances of success would definitely increase.
Just common sense, eh?
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I certainly hope to see these functions added in the near future. To the fact that none of us were in the room when these decisions were made the reasons to their absence is only conjecture. There is no way for us to know if it was oversight or by design.
If it was simple oversight, or lack of time, they have had plenty of it by now, with all of the complaints on every site I've ever been to that discussed the iPhone, which were otherwise favorable.
The iPhone Isn't selling well in Europe based on what measurement? Is it being outsold by every other smartphone available? Is it not making a profit for Apple?
You're beating a dead horse here.
If it was simple oversight, or lack of time, they have had plenty of it by now, with all of the complaints on every site I've ever been to that discussed the iPhone, which were otherwise favorable.
Knowing Apple they are waiting to release a major software update with subsequent media fanfare.
You're beating a dead horse here.
Its a fair question that no one has directly answered. Its unrealistic and untrue to say the iPhone has to sell 200,000 in two days to be a success. The iPhone won't sell 200,000 its first two days in Asian either. Does that mean its a failure in Asia? Its likely half of worldwide iPhone sales will be in the US. Does that make the other half of sales a failure?
Glad you agree there. It'll definitely improve the user experience.
I've never said I didn't think Apple needed to add the functionality. I'm saying I can understand the design model they are following. Most mobile companies pile in features with little though to the ease of use. For Apple ease of use is just as if not more important than a long feature list. Features will be added as Apple figures out how to add them without sacrificing ease of use. It requires us to have patience but in the end if it all works better its worth the wait.
And I'm saying that the past isn't a reliable indicator in that regard, due to the fact that its a very different fight and a very different market this time around, and, as Mel pointed out, Apple does not necessarily have the entire future laid out.
The mp3 market in general was new at the same time the iPod was new. So no one knew for sure how it was all going to work out. But I don't think it was an accident that everything with the iPod worked out so well. The fact that it has continued to work out well and none of Apple's competitors have even come close.
When the iPhone launched Steve Jobs said that Apple was already designing the next version and they are already thinking about the version after that. They are at least two to three years ahead of what we currently have.
One could argue that the G4 Cube and Apple TV were/are actually good products, but for various reasons they failed to take off.
They both failed to take off because Apple did not give them what they needed to succeed. Apple TV still has a chance if Apple allows it to grow. So far the iPhone is not in the same position and has room to grow.
Knowing Apple they are waiting to release a major software update with subsequent media fanfare.
We can all hope for that.
Its a fair question that no one has directly answered. Its unrealistic and untrue to say the iPhone has to sell 200,000 in two days to be a success. The iPhone won't sell 200,000 its first two days in Asian either. Does that mean its a failure in Asia? Its likely half of worldwide iPhone sales will be in the US. Does that make the other half of sales a failure?
We answered it, at least I tried to, as best as possible, from knowing what we do know.
I never said that 200,000 sales in two days was required. To my thinking, if the numbers were double what they were, it would have been pretty good. As they are, they are disappointing. I simply think that Apple and the operators are putting a good face on it., I'm not saying that it's a disaster either.
Knowing Apple they are waiting to release a major software update with subsequent media fanfare.
"When you wish... upon a staaaaar... doesn't matter.... who you aaaare...."
Seriously though, while I'd like to be as much the starry-eyed optimist here as you, its just as likely that Stevie J has decided something along the lines of, "E-mail is the way to send pics, MMS is just so outdated. I've decided we don't need it anymore, so I'll set a new trend!". And so forth.
So, we may just as likely be waiting an awfully loooong time for some of those very basic features that Apple omitted (which'll show up only after Apple finally wakes up and understands that they can't Jedi mind-trick cellphone buyers into wanting what Steve thinks they should want). And while we're waitin', many potential iPhone buyers will simply scratch their heads and go buy something else, until and unless Apple figures it out. Wheee.
Its a fair question that no one has directly answered. Its unrealistic and untrue to say the iPhone has to sell 200,000 in two days to be a success. The iPhone won't sell 200,000 its first two days in Asian either. Does that mean its a failure in Asia? Its likely half of worldwide iPhone sales will be in the US. Does that make the other half of sales a failure?
Sigh. Don't know how many times you need to be told this Teno, but:
While Apple hasn't released official numbers on early sales of its iPhone in the UK, new reports suggest the company may face difficulty replicating the level of success it experienced with the US launch of the handset back in June.
According to a recent report by the Register citing reliable channel sources, exclusive UK iPhone carrier O2 has activated just 26,500 iPhones since its launch two weeks ago, well below expectations of about 100,000 units.
"Carphone Warehouse, the main retail outlet for Apple's hot item [in the UK], had taken stock of 50,000 iPhones, but had only managed to shift around 11,000 in the first weekend," the report states. "O2 has over 400 stores and Apple just 12 in the UK. Phone industry sources estimated that 25,000 units might have shifted in that first weekend - but that now seems optimistic."
and
While T-Mobile's initial launch saw only 10,000 iPhones sold in Germany on the first day, many of the carrier's 700 retail stores continue to reflect a "solid" demand of 15-20 iPhones sold per week, Abramsky says.
It's not worth beating the dead horse anymore Teno... spin is pointless. Apple did not have a good European launch, except in France. So why argue on and on and on when it's obvious that no one is buying what you're spinning?
I've never said I didn't think Apple needed to add the functionality. I'm saying I can understand the design model they are following. Most mobile companies pile in features with little though to the ease of use.
I agree that cramming silly or useless features in for the sake of having more features is counterproductive. Unfortunately, that's not what we're talking about here.
We're talking about features - like 3G, MMS, GPS, voice-dialing, a reasonable Bluetooth stack - that are considered BASIC and EXPECTED by most prospective buyers looking at a phone in the iPhone's price range. Tell me, would most people these days purchase a reasonably expensive computer that only did dial-up networking? Had a black-and-white screen? Or would those be 'deal-breakers' for you? Starting to understand the difference between a superfluous feature and one you really do need to compete well in a tough market? Alrighty then.
For Apple ease of use is just as if not more important than a long feature list. Features will be added as Apple figures out how to add them without sacrificing ease of use. It requires us to have patience but in the end if it all works better its worth the wait.
That makes sense... oh wait, no, it doesn't. Because 3G isn't an ease-of-use issue at all, it's just a faster way to transmit data. And because most of the other features mentioned are already quite easy to use.
The mp3 market in general was new at the same time the iPod was new. So no one knew for sure how it was all going to work out. But I don't think it was an accident that everything with the iPod worked out so well. The fact that it has continued to work out well and none of Apple's competitors have even come close.
When the iPhone launched Steve Jobs said that Apple was already designing the next version and they are already thinking about the version after that. They are at least two to three years ahead of what we currently have.
[The G4 Cube and Apple TV] both failed to take off because Apple did not give them what they needed to succeed. Apple TV still has a chance if Apple allows it to grow. So far the iPhone is not in the same position and has room to grow.
Reading these two quotes back-to-back, they appear to contradict each other. On the one hand, we have Teno saying " I don't think it was an accident that everything with the iPod worked out so well", meaning Apple is halfway to being a tech Nostradamus and can see the future accurately.
BUT, at the same time, we have Teno saying, "[the G4 Cube and Apple TV] both failed to take off because Apple did not give them what they needed to succeed." But HOW is that possible, Teno, if Apple is psychic and far-seeing enough to work out the entire arc of the iPod's success, hmmm?
Seems like quite a contradiction there. So maybe, just maybe, it might be more logical to subscribe to the notion that Apple simply takes their best shot at making a good product, like everyone else, and much of the result is still up to things like chance, timing, the competition, etc?
Sorry Teno, I don't believe in Stevie J's crystal ball. I think his instincts and taste are quite good, better than most of his competitors most of the time, but far from infallible. And since Steve doesn't really have a hotline to the spirit of Nostradamus, things like execution, and listening to customers (and well) will continue to matter a very great deal.
Not that that's not patently self-evident, right? So why quibble about it?
I never said that 200,000 sales in two days was required. To my thinking, if the [Euro] numbers were double what they were, it would have been pretty good. As they are, they are disappointing. I simply think that Apple and the operators are putting a good face on it., I'm not saying that it's a disaster either.
Agreed, that's pretty much the way things stand. Hopefully Apple can price drop and/or feature upgrade in Europe sooner rather than later. If they do, I believe things will turn around for them there quite significantly.
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