3G iPhone seen paving way for video capture, overseas adoption

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
The advent of a 3G iPhone from Apple Inc. later this year will enabled a slew of often-sought media features and present the greatest opportunity for international adoption, according to a pair of Wall Street analysts, who've nonetheless reduced their price targets on the company given recent growth and economic concerns.



In a research report released to clients on Monday, RBC Capital analyst Mike Abramsky said he believes the impact of 3G iPhone has been largely underestimated by the industry. He's expected the device to account for 25 to 30 percent of Apple's iPhone shipments this year after it launches in the second half, contributing to his view that the company will beat its goal of selling 10 million handsets in 2008 by approximately 1 million units.



Noting that some mobile functions can operate up to ten times as fast on a 3G network as they do on an EDGE network, Abramsky told clients that he believes 3G connectivity will "unleash" the true power of the handset and offer a mobile web surfing experience unparalleled elsewhere in the industry.



"Apple is likely to offer a faster processor in the devices, along with more onboard memory, which will also increase speed, downloading/uploading rates and browsing experience -- as well as enable higher video quality," he wrote. "The lower latency of 3G and faster processor/memory may likely allow deployment of new features, including video/voice capture, streaming HD video, real-time A-GPS location based services, etc."



The analyst, who cut his price target on Apple shares from $200 to $175 on economic/growth concerns, added that 3G wireless service should also allow users to simultaneously receive calls while browsing the web, as well as receive "over-the-air" media downloads and software updates.



Separately on Monday, Banc of American analyst Scott Craig also cut his price target on the Cupertino-based company (from $180 to $160), following checks with Asian suppliers that confirm near-term demand softness for both the iPod and iPhone.



"Recent checks in Asia for iPhone production suggest another sizable adjustment down to less than 1 million units for [the fiscal second quarter of 2008]," he wrote in a research report. "We believe that demand in the U.S. may have been impacted by the anticipation of a new 3G phone and that European demand for a non 3G iPhone remains lackluster."



Craig added that the introduction of a 3G handset in 2008 and further price reduction on the first generation device are critical to achieving the company?s 10 million unit expectation for 2008. In the meantime, however, the analyst reduced his iPhone sales estimated for the company's March quarter to 1.22 million from 1.62 and his fiscal 2008 estimate to 6.56 million from 7.96 million.



"We estimate roughly 8 million units for [calendar] 2008 compared to management's 10 million unit outlook," he wrote.



Despite the reduction in estimates, the Banc of American analyst advised clients to buy Apple shares at their current levels given that he believes the main driver for the company and its stock near-term is notebooks and desktops.



Nevertheless, shares of Apple were hit hard by both analysts' target cuts, falling $5.15 or over 4 percent to $119.87.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 78
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,656member
    This sounds pretty much correct.



    The talk of a faster processor also makes sense. It has been noted that even on WiFi, the iPhone is not as fast as a computer. That's because the processor limits the effective bandwidth the device can process.
  • Reply 2 of 78
    axc51axc51 Posts: 98member
    3G streaming HD video?
  • Reply 3 of 78
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    The talk of a faster processor also makes sense. It has been noted that even on WiFi, the iPhone is not as fast as a computer. That's because the processor limits the effective bandwidth the device can process.



    The processor already trumps other smartphones I've seen and the 3G chips will surely be more power hungry than the current EDGE chip.



    I predict the processing power not to change substantially. Apple will balance between using faster chips that are more energy efficient so long as it can maintain it's battery life. I feel the battery performance is the most pressing issue with the iPhone right now. IMO, the speed of the interface, even for viewing webpages, is more than adequate for a cell phone.
  • Reply 4 of 78
    ronboronbo Posts: 669member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by axc51 View Post


    3G streaming HD video?



    Yeah, I thought that was pretty funny, too.
  • Reply 5 of 78
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,656member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    The processor already trumps other smartphones I've seen and the 3G chips will surely be more power hungry than the current EDGE chip.



    I predict the processing power not to change substantially. Apple will balance between using faster chips that are more energy efficient so long as it can maintain it's battery life. I feel the battery performance is the most pressing issue with the iPhone right now. IMO, the speed of the interface, even for viewing webpages, is more than adequate for a cell phone.



    There will doubtless be numerous improvements internally. I'm willing to bet that a large portion will have been redesigned.



    But, it's true that the processor limits the ability of the device to use full WiFi speeds. Chip speeds have risen, I'm sure, with the same power consumption. I'm saying that without actually looking. But, it will have been a year, and we can be sure that they have not stood still. Even a 15% increase in cpu power could be enough to send it over the top, resulting in better abilities.
  • Reply 6 of 78
    8corewhore8corewhore Posts: 833member
    3G3G3G3G3G3G
  • Reply 7 of 78
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    There will doubtless be numerous improvements internally. I'm willing to bet that a large portion will have been redesigned.



    But, it's true that the processor limits the ability of the device to use full WiFi speeds. Chip speeds have risen, I'm sure, with the same power consumption. I'm saying that without actually looking. But, it will have been a year, and we can be sure that they have not stood still. Even a 15% increase in cpu power could be enough to send it over the top, resulting in better abilities.



    I am looking for ARM specs so we can determine what the next iPhone will most likely have. It's proving to be not as simple as Intel's well known roadmap.
  • Reply 8 of 78
    jmadlenajmadlena Posts: 43member
    I really don't like stock analysts/brokers. In my opinion (albeit my ignorance) they just make everything worse off. When they guesstimate (that's right, I said it) the future outlook of companies it just makes people freak out and the stock drops. A self-fulfilling prophecy.
  • Reply 9 of 78
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,094member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    The processor already trumps other smartphones I've seen and the 3G chips will surely be more power hungry than the current EDGE chip.



    If the iPhone had a user-replaceable battery, this wouldn't be an issue.
  • Reply 10 of 78
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    If the iPhone had a user-replaceable battery, this wouldn't be an issue.



    I beg to differ. Swapping out batteries is just a workaround, what you need is a bigger battery for the power. I wonder how much bigger it would be and less durable if there was a sliding cover. I know the battery cover on most of my electronics has broken off and allowed for waited space.



    If the duration is an issue there is always a Mophie Juice Pack due out this month. I will be getting one of these.
  • Reply 11 of 78
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,656member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I am looking for ARM specs so we can determine what the next iPhone will most likely have. It's proving to be not as simple as Intel's well known roadmap.



    That's why I didn't bother. Good luck.
  • Reply 12 of 78
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,656member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    If the iPhone had a user-replaceable battery, this wouldn't be an issue.



    Or just an extra two millimeters of thickness, and a battery that's thicker, and more powerful.
  • Reply 13 of 78
    -cj--cj- Posts: 58member
    I agree that folks are underestimating the number of people waiting for the 3G version of the iPhone to release. I know I'm not the only one waiting for the next version before jumping into the iPhone pool. People may not just be waiting for the 3G feature, but are saving their iPhone dollars for the next version.
  • Reply 14 of 78
    the iphone is an amazing product but i will happily upgrade to 3g when it arrives, enchallah!!
  • Reply 15 of 78
    zenwaveszenwaves Posts: 81member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by -cj- View Post


    I agree that folks are underestimating the number of people waiting for the 3G version of the iPhone to release. I know I'm not the only one waiting for the next version before jumping into the iPhone pool. People may not just be waiting for the 3G feature, but are saving their iPhone dollars for the next version.



    ditto, I've had $600 set aside for a 3G iPhone since December ... was foolishly hoping that it would be out by Macworld, but now it's getting closer!
  • Reply 16 of 78
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zenwaves View Post


    ditto, I've had $600 set aside for a 3G iPhone since December ... was foolishly hoping that it would be out by Macworld, but now it's getting closer!





    Same here...I am waiting for the 3G iPhone. Do you think you will need all of that 600 bucks to buy the 3G iPhone? I wonder how much it will cost.
  • Reply 17 of 78
    boogabooga Posts: 1,077member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    If the iPhone had a user-replaceable battery, this wouldn't be an issue.



    Apple knows what they're doing when it comes to wildly successful consumer electronics.



    I don't see many people carrying around an extra cellphone battery with them at all times. If it doesn't fit in the package it'll get left at home/on the desk/etc. The only solution is either less power consumption or more built-in supply.



    My BlackBerry 3350 gets days of standby time, but it's got a tiny screen and is very thick. My iPod Touch is the perfect mix of battery, capability, and slimness. I suspect most iPhone users find their slightly thicker cases the right tradeoff, too. Apple's really good at finding the right tradeoffs lately.
  • Reply 18 of 78
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Booga View Post


    My iPod Touch is the perfect mix of battery, capability, and slimness. I suspect most iPhone users find their slightly thicker cases the right tradeoff, too. Apple's really good at finding the right tradeoffs lately.



    I agree. I use my iPhone for internet and audio music at the same time for hours straight... which means until it dies. I need a model that is a full 1" thick.
  • Reply 19 of 78
    I do find it slightly ironic that this is a Royal Bank of Canada banker talking when the ruddy iPhone is not even available in the aforementioned country.
  • Reply 20 of 78
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,656member
    I've never used an extra battery on my cellphones, and that includes my old Samsung 1300 and 1330 Palmphones, or my current Treo 700p.



    I don't even know anyone who has.



    I'm sure someone here will say that they do, but It's not that big of an issue.
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