Apple leaves would-be iPhone developers hanging for the moment

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  • Reply 121 of 134
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tipo158 View Post


    Gee, is it possible to have a serious discussion on this forum?



    I love my new MBP. Glad that I bought it. It is the best Wintel notebook that I have ever used (single button trackpad not withstanding).



    As I said, it is a shame that I am running Windows on it to build Symbian apps. Not sure how it benefits Apple to have me going down that path instead of working on my iPhone app that would sell iPhones in market segments that would probably not have thought of buying an iPhone.



    alan



    Symbian is a dying OS. Yes, it predominates now, though its marketshare is shrinking. Even though Nokia owns the OS, it's moving the development of its more sophisticated phones to Linux.



    Gook luck for now, but in the next three or four years, the interest in Symbian based products will be much smaller than it is currently.



    Just so that Aegis isn't concerned, this isn't a defense of Apple.
  • Reply 122 of 134
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Symbian is a dying OS. Yes, it predominates now, though its marketshare is shrinking. Even though Nokia owns the OS, it's moving the development of its more sophisticated phones to Linux.



    Gook luck for now, but in the next three or four years, the interest in Symbian based products will be much smaller than it is currently.



    As a former Palm developer, this is a situation I understand.
  • Reply 123 of 134
    aegisdesignaegisdesign Posts: 2,914member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    These types have metastasized into a bigger irritant than the overly enthusiastic Mac user, IMO.



    Yep. Those are dreary too. The worst sort are the ex-Amiga owners that have taken up Windows as a religion, that really should know better - (I'm thinking Paul Thurrott here)



    He can type pages and pages of rubbish, which is presumably good for hits, but not for the site's reputation.
  • Reply 124 of 134
    aegisdesignaegisdesign Posts: 2,914member
    Oh this is too easy Mel...



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Symbian is a dying OS.



    It's market share rose from 5% to 7% last year. 77 million phones. Last quarter their licensees shipped 22.4m phones, a 53% increase on last year.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Yes, it predominates now, though its marketshare is shrinking.



    It's increasing overall. See above. It's decreasing in the smartphone market, gradually, but increasing overall as more phones get smarter. ie. it's going mainstream. Saying it's marketshare is shrinking is like saying Microsoft's market share in office software is shrinking.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Even though Nokia owns the OS, it's moving the development of its more sophisticated phones to Linux.



    Nokia only owns 47.9% of Symbian. Symbian is owned by Ericsson, Nokia, Panasonic, Samsung, Siemens & Sony Ericsson



    Nokia makes absolutely zero phones that run Linux.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Gook luck for now, but in the next three or four years, the interest in Symbian based products will be much smaller than it is currently.



    Unlikely. They have their problems certainly at Symbian but I imagine Apple entering their patch has piqued their interest. They aren't Palm.



    There's plenty of room in the market for more smartphones. Even if Apple sell 77m iPhones, I'd still bet on there being room for 77m Symbian based phones.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Just so that Aegis isn't concerned, this isn't a defense of Apple.



    It's that wider picture thing again Mel.
  • Reply 125 of 134
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post


    Oh this is too easy Mel...







    It's market share rose from 5% to 7% last year. 77 million phones. Last quarter their licensees shipped 22.4m phones, a 53% increase on last year.







    It's increasing overall. See above. It's decreasing in the smartphone market, gradually, but increasing overall as more phones get smarter. ie. it's going mainstream. Saying it's marketshare is shrinking is like saying Microsoft's market share in office software is shrinking.



    It's the smartphone, and other sophisticated phone device market we're discussing. For the sake of this discussion I don't really care what it's doing otherwise.





    Quote:

    Nokia only owns 47.9% of Symbian. Symbian is owned by Ericsson, Nokia, Panasonic, Samsung, Siemens & Sony Ericsson



    Nokia makes absolutely zero phones that run Linux.



    Yes. 48%. Sorry, I should have said that they dominate Symbian Limited. Essentially, they control the agenda.



    As for a Linux phone device, you are just plain wrong there. Most people would count VOIP as a phone.



    http://hardware.slashdot.org/article...39202&from=rss



    The old 770 has been replaced by the newer N800.



    http://www.linuxdevices.com/news/NS9981902594.html



    There is an even newer N810.



    Now, while these don't work over the celluar network, they use WiFi, and VOIP will work when installed. They are part of the newer generation, more sophisticated devices I am talking about.



    They are kind of the Newton-like device we've been talking about here for a while, except these have the slide out keyboard, and no multi-touch screen. but, the size and rez is about right.



    We know about this, but it's good to remind people.



    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/06...wser_analysis/



    Quote:

    Unlikely. They have their problems certainly at Symbian but I imagine Apple entering their patch has piqued their interest. They aren't Palm.



    There's plenty of room in the market for more smartphones. Even if Apple sell 77m iPhones, I'd still bet on there being room for 77m Symbian based phones.



    Not unlikely at all.



    This is about Nokia's purchase of Troltech, and Nokia's entrance to the LiMo Foundation (devoted to making a standard rendition of Linux for mobile use).



    http://www.news.com/LiMo-chief-talks-rivals,-Nokia,-and-mobile-Linux/2008-7344_3-6229125.html?^$



    I can't seem to fix the above link though the address is correct. But, if you copy it to the browser address window, it will work. It's from C/net.



    Appropo.



    http://www.linux-foundation.org/webl...-virtuallogix/



    Another article showing Nokia's interest in forwarding the use of Linux.



    http://press.nokia.com/PR/200505/995845_5.html



    I could link to more, but this should be enough to show the gist.



    It's interesting how Nokia went from saying that Linux wasn't ready, in early 2006, to supporting it so heavily in the intervening two years. It makes you wonder if it wasn't a Jobsien statement.



    Quote:

    It's that wider picture thing again Mel.



    I'm on top of it Aegis, are you?
  • Reply 126 of 134
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Nice post!



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Consumer companies in particular are dependent on a very fickle potential clientele. Whereas business and government buyers know what they need, and will pursue their plans for years, the consumer will change plans in an instant if something cooler, or cheaper, or prettier shows up at the last moment.



    This is true to a certain extent but if you are a consumer products company like Apple you may find yourself adjust plans if you end up in a tough position. Companies don't like to change their business plans in response the economy but sometimes it is a necessity. Apple as a company has a history of being in difficult situations and I think many are aware of the changes they have made to combat those difficulties.

    Quote:



    New ideas are also hard to come by, as are better implementations of current ones.



    Actually new ideas are dime a dozen. Bringing a new idea to market is the hard part. Apple does this really well.

    Quote:



    Often consumer companies that telegraph their intentions are caught up short by their competitors who can come to market with a copy before their own product comes out. This is more true today than ever in the past, as Asian companies come out with knockoffs rapidly.



    This is a huge problem and one should not underestimate Apples problems here. Mr. Jobs demands for secrecy for the various projects Apple pursues aren't due to a personality defect but rather the very real possibility of loosing it all if the competition gets a leg up on them. Many here seem to underestimate the potential for failure if things are let out of the bag so to speak.

    Quote:



    Jobs attempts to get around all the speculation about Apple's plans by misdirecting those who try to anticipate them. Unfortunately, Apple has become the most watched consumer company of all time. Every day, pundits are speculating about any new products Apple may come out with. This continues here, on the rumors sites.



    Sadly this saddles Apple with problems that smaller companies will never have.

    Quote:

    By attempting to mislead other companies as to the direction Apple is going in, he hopes to gain a few precious months.



    Remember the surprise engendered by the necessity of announcing the iPhone six months in advance? There was shock. There was also speculation that it would give competitors too much of a leg up. Fortunately, the OX is at the heart of the system, and that can't be duplicated so easily by others, though they have tried to copy the physical product.



    I will go so far as to say it is the Framework from NextStep that really is the difficult part to duplicate. The core of the OS is a dime a dozen item now, that is the kernel and POSIX utilities, COCOA on the other hand is pretty compelling on these devices.

    Quote:



    So, jobs says that people aren't interested in portable video players. He gives good reasons. He shows that they don't work well. That there isn't a good business model around for their profitability. He points out that they aren't selling. All of which is true. Then he says that Apple isn't interested.



    Just like they did with FLASH based MP3 players. The surprising thing there is how fast they reacted in my opinion.

    Quote:



    A year or so later, he comes out with a much better product than the competition, with a much better business model, and the products sell.



    Misdirection. And it hasn't hurt anyone except Apple's competitors. The advantage is to the consumers.



    Well I'd say the advantage is to Apple. The consumers do benefit though because a strong healthy company like Apple means they continue to innovate.



    AS to the video player this is another thing that I truly believe Apple can do right. Again the benefit Apple can bring to such a device is the ability to make it multi functional. That comes from having the right interface layered on top of the user interface. The iPhone is successful not because it has OS/X underneath the gloss but rather that Apple put the right interface on top of OS/X for this sort of device.



    Dave
  • Reply 127 of 134
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    Nice post!





    This is true to a certain extent but if you are a consumer products company like Apple you may find yourself adjust plans if you end up in a tough position. Companies don't like to change their business plans in response the economy but sometimes it is a necessity. Apple as a company has a history of being in difficult situations and I think many are aware of the changes they have made to combat those difficulties.



    Ah, but it's tough to adjust plans. Even if you do, it doesn't mean that they will be successful either.



    Look at the online music business. MS hasn't become #1 without trying!



    Neither has Sony, or Creative, or...



    Quote:

    Actually new ideas are dime a dozen. Bringing a new idea to market is the hard part. Apple does this really well.



    When I said new ideas, I meant good, useful, new ideas. You are right (bad) new ideas are a dime a dozen.



    Quote:

    This is a huge problem and one should not underestimate Apples problems here. Mr. Jobs demands for secrecy for the various projects Apple pursues aren't due to a personality defect but rather the very real possibility of loosing it all if the competition gets a leg up on them. Many here seem to underestimate the potential for failure if things are let out of the bag so to speak.



    This is a big problem for Apple's consumer business. However, for a commercial market, it's required to give out plans, under NDA.



    Quote:

    Sadly this saddles Apple with problems that smaller companies will never have.



    Heh! It's a problem they would LIKE to have.



    Quote:

    I will go so far as to say it is the Framework from NextStep that really is the difficult part to duplicate. The core of the OS is a dime a dozen item now, that is the kernel and POSIX utilities, COCOA on the other hand is pretty compelling on these devices.



    However you slice it, all of the relevant parts are patented up the wazoo. The open source stuff is what Apple isn't worried about.



    Quote:

    Just like they did with FLASH based MP3 players. The surprising thing there is how fast they reacted in my opinion.



    An easier product to work with.



    Quote:

    Well I'd say the advantage is to Apple. The consumers do benefit though because a strong healthy company like Apple means they continue to innovate.



    Of course. Apple must profit from this for it to be of advantage to their potential customers. If not, it won't be produced, or if it is, it won't last long, unless you can manage losing money on it as MS can afford to do when they enter new markets (or like the XBox remain in older ones).



    Quote:

    AS to the video player this is another thing that I truly believe Apple can do right. Again the benefit Apple can bring to such a device is the ability to make it multi functional. That comes from having the right interface layered on top of the user interface. The iPhone is successful not because it has OS/X underneath the gloss but rather that Apple put the right interface on top of OS/X for this sort of device.



    Dave



    Apple understands the technology DNA, which is that evolution of complex products results in hidden complexity, with simplicity on the outside.
  • Reply 128 of 134
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I haven't coded for almost 10 years, so whether I want to bother with that is something I haven't decided yet.



    Oh come on go for it. The right app could have you swimming in money with very little effort on your part. This program is the best offering for the small scale developer I've ever seen. It is simply filling a niche that no one else does and having it ready for the feeding frenzy when the store opens.

    Quote:



    I just find it interesting that reports from developers in general don't seem to have mentioned all of your problems. Unless you're saying that all of them have somehow been accepted by Apple.



    Unfortunately I just downloaded the SDK so I can't really talk about it any more.

    Quote:



    The pieces that are missing for you are likely missing for everyone, even those they have accepted. The only difference is the ver 2.0 software.



    Well what I can comment on is the whiny attitude displayed by some of the posters here. They really should look at the opportunity that Apple is offering up here with respect to this product.

    Quote:



    Even so, I don't think it to be a problem. Apple will start accepting more requests, and everyone will be happy..



    If anybody is letting Apples limited beta set them back with respect to developing their App; then I think they need to sit back and honestly look at the potential here. There will be markets for anything from a $2 app to a $200 app. Considering that many of them will be Touch compatible that is a lot of potential customers. I look at it this way if Apple has sold over 25 million combined iPods Touches and iPhones by mid year and you can grab one tenth of one percent of those customers you can make $50,000 off a $2 dollar app ($2.85 to cover Apples cut). Sure there are taxes and other fees but the fact remains your expenses are real low.



    Dave



    PS



    This has me wondering if Apple will cover sales taxes too.



    Dave
  • Reply 129 of 134
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    Oh come on go for it. The right app could have you swimming in money with very little effort on your part. This program is the best offering for the small scale developer I've ever seen. It is simply filling a niche that no one else does and having it ready for the feeding frenzy when the store opens.



    Unf



    I do have more time, but the interest in programming has waned over the years.
  • Reply 130 of 134
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    When I said new ideas, I meant good, useful, new ideas. You are right (bad) new ideas are a dime a dozen.



    Well this is one place we don't see eye to eye. An amazing number of good ideas never come to market or the companies that could have delivered the product never had the vision. That lack of vision usually means somebody else gets to grab the riches.



    dave
  • Reply 131 of 134
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    What does that have to do with anything?



    The title of this thread is:



    AppleInsider > iPhone > Apple leaves would-be iPhone developers hanging for the moment



    I happen to be a would-be iPhone developer who is hanging at the moment. All of my posts have tried to expain why.



    Well I for one understand where you are coming from but I can't imagine that this is your first stab at working with beta software that is under heavy development. In some way I see this early release as a sing that maybe Apple has learned a bit form the open source folks.



    As to sitting around hanging in a way I understand but in another I don't. Those that get to market first will have huge opportunities. Instead of hanging tight find way to work around the limitations. Maybe that is not easy for your app, if so take it as a good sign as you will be well ahead of the guys that simply give up.



    Thanks

    Dave
  • Reply 132 of 134
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    Well this is one place we don't see eye to eye. An amazing number of good ideas never come to market or the companies that could have delivered the product never had the vision. That lack of vision usually means somebody else gets to grab the riches.



    dave



    If they don't come to market, then we don't know about them, so we don't know just how many there are.



    A good idea is not only one that presents a good product, but is also at the right time, place, etc.



    The Edsel was a great car. A friends father had one when I was a small kid. Even then I could see that. but it came out at the wrong time, right during a recession, when a new luxury model should never have been introduced, so it failed.



    So was it a good idea? It's tough to tell.



    But I've seen hundreds of failed products that seemed like good ideas at the time, but weren't.



    Far more never make it out the door.
  • Reply 133 of 134
    aegisdesignaegisdesign Posts: 2,914member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    It's the smartphone, and other sophisticated phone device market we're discussing. For the sake of this discussion I don't really care what it's doing otherwise.



    For "other sophisticated phone device", read "mainstream" in my original post. As phones get more powerful CPUs and RAM, it's Symbian that's being used. Either way, calling Symbian a 'dying OS' in the face of record sales and growth seems a bit unfair. It's "Symbian is teh DOOMED" and you are John Dvorak.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Yes. 48%. Sorry, I should have said that they dominate Symbian Limited. Essentially, they control the agenda.



    To some extent, yes, but Symbian is just the core OS. On top of that there are three UI frameworks (last I checked). There's Nokia's terrible S60 non-touch interface, Sony Ericsson's much less terrible UIQ and whatever they use in the FOMA? phones in Asia which is almost guaranteed to be terrible as I've yet to come across an Asian phone that had a UI that was vaguely comprehensible.



    The biggest problem I think with Symbian is the fragmentation at the UI level. Nokia traditionally didn't like touch screen interfaces, Ericsson loved them and so did Symbian as it came from Psion's touch screen OS. With SE's market share, they don't invest enough in UIQ which is a pity as S60 'dominates' the Symbian market for 3rd party apps.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    As for a Linux phone device, you are just plain wrong there. Most people would count VOIP as a phone.



    Somehow I knew you'd include those. If that's the case include almost every wifi enabled PDA, Nintendo DS and the iPod Touch as phones. Nokia's Maemo devices are not phones. They're HUGE for a start. They're PDAs. Having Skype or Gizmo on a PDA doesn't make it a phone.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Now, while these don't work over the celluar network, they use WiFi, and VOIP will work when installed. They are part of the newer generation, more sophisticated devices I am talking about.



    They are kind of the Newton-like device we've been talking about here for a while, except these have the slide out keyboard, and no multi-touch screen. but, the size and rez is about right.



    ie. a PDA.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    This is about Nokia's purchase of Troltech, and Nokia's entrance to the LiMo Foundation (devoted to making a standard rendition of Linux for mobile use).



    Or for their Maemo platform which already uses QT. Perhaps they just want to protect their IP. Or simply to block all the Linux based phones in Asia. I really don't think it's indicative of Nokia's direction at all or the impending demise of Symbian which was your original punt.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    It's interesting how Nokia went from saying that Linux wasn't ready, in early 2006, to supporting it so heavily in the intervening two years. It makes you wonder if it wasn't a Jobsien statement.



    They've ONE PDA running Linux. Go Nokia!
  • Reply 134 of 134
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post


    For "other sophisticated phone device", read "mainstream" in my original post. As phones get more powerful CPUs and RAM, it's Symbian that's being used. Either way, calling Symbian a 'dying OS' in the face of record sales and growth seems a bit unfair. It's "Symbian is teh DOOMED" and you are John Dvorak.







    To some extent, yes, but Symbian is just the core OS. On top of that there are three UI frameworks (last I checked). There's Nokia's terrible S60 non-touch interface, Sony Ericsson's much less terrible UIQ and whatever they use in the FOMA? phones in Asia which is almost guaranteed to be terrible as I've yet to come across an Asian phone that had a UI that was vaguely comprehensible.



    The biggest problem I think with Symbian is the fragmentation at the UI level. Nokia traditionally didn't like touch screen interfaces, Ericsson loved them and so did Symbian as it came from Psion's touch screen OS. With SE's market share, they don't invest enough in UIQ which is a pity as S60 'dominates' the Symbian market for 3rd party apps.







    Somehow I knew you'd include those. If that's the case include almost every wifi enabled PDA, Nintendo DS and the iPod Touch as phones. Nokia's Maemo devices are not phones. They're HUGE for a start. They're PDAs. Having Skype or Gizmo on a PDA doesn't make it a phone.







    ie. a PDA.









    Or for their Maemo platform which already uses QT. Perhaps they just want to protect their IP. Or simply to block all the Linux based phones in Asia. I really don't think it's indicative of Nokia's direction at all or the impending demise of Symbian which was your original punt.







    They've ONE PDA running Linux. Go Nokia!



    It has to start somewhere. Also interesting that Sony Ericsson just said that their sales are down. I don't know what percentage of their phones use Symbian though.
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