wow, sounds like the recording studios a few short years back,
talking about music.. [sarcasm] but then THEY were as "right" as you are now..
[/sarcasm]
That's a seperate argument. If it wasn't video would be treated the same as audio in iTunes wouldn't it?
Prove me wrong Walter.
Address the issues.
If you can.
Now if you'll excuse me it's Sunday afternoon and I'm going to take my physical media ( a DVD of the second season of " The Invaders " ) over to my friend's house. He has a nice TV also and doesn't want to go out again. With physical media it isn't a problem.
ok, lemme think now, didn't we have this sort of "non believer" issue with the die hard HD-DVD fan people a few years ago.
what is the magic number you need to see Jim, before you can focus on the writing thats on the wall all the rest of us can see?
Well to be most accurate...
Some of us see a market for both physical media and streaming for the foreseeable future. While this is at odds with Jimmac's stance, it isn't the same as declaring physical media dead.
Besides that, the HD-DVD analogy is probably a bad idea. It doesn't seem like a terribly analogous situation and will likely just get us stuck on non-productive tangents.
Walk down the streets in New York City and you see people selling bootleg DVD's of movies that are currently in the movie theater. Its not like piracy is limited to downloading.
Quote:
This doesn't show that downloading will become the replacement for physical media sales in the near future. All you've done is show the pirating problem is rampant.
For one I never said downloading would replace physical media. For two I am showing that their is a demand for downloading. My over all point is that Blu-ray will not enjoy the media dominance that DVD or VHS both have had.
Quote:
Lots of people smoke pot right now but it hasn't been legalized or accepted in the mainsteam as a item of choice.
You tossing up strawmen to see if they will stick. They won't.
Quote:
Show me some information that solves those problems I listed ok?
You've shown no evidence that the problems you list actually effect video downloading. You list some potential problems and then make the leap that they will limit downloading.
The fact that downloading is happening and growing proves that the problems you list are not as serious as you pose them to be.
Quote:
Because it has to be a legal solution to prove that it will be accepted as a mainstream replacement for physical media. If not you've basically contributed nothing to the discussion. Until these issues are solved downloading will be the realm of the renter and the pirate.
This is the same situation that music has been in. People using it to illegally download content shows the media companies that their is demand and a market for downloading content.
Quote:
Come on man address the issues if you're so right!
Perhaps you are simply inventing issues for the convenience of you argument.
Walk down the streets in New York City and you see people selling bootleg DVD's of movies that are currently in the movie theater. Its not like piracy is limited to downloading.
For one I never said downloading would replace physical media. For two I am showing that their is a demand for downloading. My over all point is that Blu-ray will not enjoy the media dominance that DVD or VHS both have had.
You tossing up strawmen to see if they will stick. They won't.
You've shown no evidence that the problems you list actually effect video downloading. You list some potential problems and then make the leap that they will limit downloading.
The fact that downloading is happening and growing proves that the problems you list are not as serious as you pose them to be.
This is the same situation that music has been in. People using it to illegally download content shows the media companies that their is demand and a market for downloading content.
Perhaps you are simply inventing issues for the convenience of you argument.
Quote:
Perhaps you are simply inventing issues for the convenience of you argument
If that were true I'd be the only one saying this but I'm not. Check some of those articles I linked to.
As for the rest I guess I thought you were one of the ones who said they thought downloading would replace physical media. So I guess on that point we're in agreement.
You don't think the economy factors into this discussion?
The link YOU gave referenced a report that was compiled in 2007. If in 2007 it was agreed that BR wouldn't overtake DVD until 2012, what happens when you factor in the mortgage mess, wall street debacle, job losses and overall financial crisis?
There is now a better chance of 2012 seeing the end of the world (according to the Mayans) than seeing DVD being resoundingly overtaken by Blu-Ray.
You don't think the economy factors into this discussion?
The link YOU gave referenced a report that was compiled in 2007. If in 2007 it was agreed that BR wouldn't overtake DVD until 2012, what happens when you factor in the mortgage mess, wall street debacle, job losses and overall financial crisis?
There is now a better chance of 2012 seeing the end of the world (according to the Mayans) than seeing DVD being resoundingly overtaken by Blu-Ray.
Quote:
You don't think the economy factors into this discussion?
I think you're really stretching to make it fit. I also think if the last administration hadn't been so stupid we wouldn't be in this mess. However Frank this really does belong in PO and not in what could be considered an attempt at derailment of a hardware discussion which I don't think the mods would like. Please keep it there. Besides the slow economy hasn't killed BR.
The slow economy won't be around forever.
You could however try addressing the points I've raised. And no I won't state them again. You can go back in the thread as well as anyone and read them.
Politics aside, I think the recession will play a roll in the adoption rate of blu-ray and streaming media. I haven't given it enough thought to be able to make a clear claim as to the end effect, but here are some intermediate thoughts.
People already have way less discretionary income to spend on frivolous things like entertainment. However TV viewership tends to go up in bad economic times. So does drinking and gambling, but that's another thread.
If anything, i'd think that $400 blu-ray players are a tough sell right about now. Certainly players can be had for less though. On the other hand, monthly subscription services like netflix might be similarly effected. People might have a hard time adding one more thing to their monthly budgets.
Does anyone know how cable subscriptions and physical media sales have historically been effected by the economy?
Unlike music, video can only be consumed wherever you have a screen.
-Video cannot be consumed in its full glory unless it is on a large screen, such as in the home.
-Video can serve as a joyful distraction outside the home in lesser glory on a small screen (phone, portable media device).
-Highly recommended videos are usually shared among family and friends.
Currently, DVD is the only video "container" that can satisfy all 3 of the above (in conjunction with ripping the video to a digital computer file for use on phones and portable media devices).
- Blu-Ray discs can't be ripped using conventional means (e.g. free, easy to use application like Handbrake), so that kills off small screen enjoyment.
- Blu-Ray discs can't be shared with other households unless they also own a Blu-Ray player (not too many Blu-Ray players in households, not as ubiquitous as DVD players).
+ Blu-Ray movies look awesome in HD on the big home TV screen.
-VOD from cable/sat companies can't be converted using conventional means (e.g. free, easy to use application like Handbrake), so that kills off small screen enjoyment.
-VOD cannot be shared with neighbors, even if they have the same cable/sat service.
+VOD programs look fine in SD on the big home TV screen.
-iTunes Movies & Rentals can't be shared with a neighbor unless you authorize their computer. Rentals do not transfer to another computer.
+iTunes Movies & Rentals can be enjoyed on the iPhone or any iPod with video capability.
+iTunes Movies & Rentals look fine in SD on the big home TV screen. If using an Apple TV, they look awesome in HD.
I've read the articles you linked to. As I said before those people are giving future predictions based upon what we know right now. They don't know what advancement or social change may happen in the near future.
Can you show any statistics that prove broadband adoption or bandwidth speeds currently affecting the demand for video downloads?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac
If that were true I'd be the only one saying this but I'm not. Check some of those articles I linked to.
I've read the articles you linked to. As I said before those people are giving future predictions based upon what we know right now. They don't know what advancement or social change may happen in the near future.
Can you show any statistics that prove broadband adoption or bandwidth speeds currently affecting the demand for video downloads?
I listed several issues besides bandwidth.
People will download video in the future as they are now. I have no problem with that. Will it replace physical media? Someday maybe but that's a ways off. You've stated that the replacement question is not part of your argument so we are in agreement there. I do think that the 250 gig cap Comcast ( the biggest ISP ) is putting on customers is an indicator that more needs to be done as far bandwidth if they want future adoption. With HD content you could run through that pretty fast.
But if they want to replace physical media entirely there are other issues that need to be solved like portability, what will they offer it with ( special features etc. ), what to charge. These all involve the studios. And that's very unpredictable. The only argument I had with the legality issue is that if it were to replace physical media entirely everyone would have to settle on a legal platform to run this all on. But since as you said you aren't arguing that downloads will replace physical media those are issues we don't need to discuss.
I really have nothing against downloading. I've done in many forms for years myself ( Bit Torrent, iTunes etc. ) but because of the way the studios view it I would hate to see it as the only option. But maybe someday the studios will see the light and you'll be able to download something on iTunes and legally transfer it to a portable device ( disc, flashdrive whatever ) and take it anywhere and play it anywhere. That's the kind of future I'd like to see for downloading. Until then it's pretty much a rental to me.
... But maybe someday the studios will see the light and you'll be able to download something on iTunes and legally transfer it to a portable device ( disc, flashdrive whatever ) and take it anywhere and play it anywhere. That's the kind of future I'd like to see for downloading.
I completely agree but am perhaps more optimistic about the prospect of the studios and consumers reaching a workable compromise.
A couple years ago I probably wouldn't have been so optimistic. But take a look at how far we've come and how quickly it has come despite corporations dragging their feet. All music from the biggest online music seller is now DRM free!
People will download video in the future as they are now. I have no problem with that. Will it replace physical media? Someday maybe but that's a ways off. You've stated that the replacement question is not part of your argument so we are in agreement there. I do think that the 250 gig cap Comcast ( the biggest ISP ) is putting on customers is an indicator that more needs to be done as far bandwidth if they want future adoption. With HD content you could run through that pretty fast.
I don't think downloads will replace physical media anytime soon. Blu-ray does have advantages. And their will be people who will prefer Blu-ray. I've never argued against that. My point is that Blu-ray will not be the dominant media format that DVD and VHS have been in the past.
Quote:
I really have nothing against downloading. I've done in many forms for years myself ( Bit Torrent, iTunes etc. ) but because of the way the studios view it I would hate to see it as the only option. But maybe someday the studios will see the light and you'll be able to download something on iTunes and legally transfer it to a portable device ( disc, flashdrive whatever ) and take it anywhere and play it anywhere. That's the kind of future I'd like to see for downloading. Until then it's pretty much a rental to me.
The studios will be forced to adjust to what people want. The internet empowers people to provide media when they want it the way they want it. The studios will be forced to cater to this market. The same as music was forced to cater to it.
I don't think downloads will replace physical media anytime soon. Blu-ray does have advantages. And their will be people who will prefer Blu-ray. I've never argued against that. My point is that Blu-ray will not be the dominant media format that DVD and VHS have been in the past.
The studios will be forced to adjust to what people want. The internet empowers people to provide media when they want it the way they want it. The studios will be forced to cater to this market. The same as music was forced to cater to it.
On your last point we'll see. This battle over home video rights has been going on since the early 80's.
Besides that, the HD-DVD analogy is probably a bad idea. It doesn't seem like a terribly analogous situation and will likely just get us stuck on non-productive tangents.
ON THIS THREAD!!!!
how could that happen?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dfiler
Well to be most accurate...
Some of us see a market for both physical media and streaming for the foreseeable future. While this is at odds with Jimmac's stance, it isn't the same as declaring physical media dead.
everything seems to be at odds with his stance, and it IS his stance, a stubborn one that, as the steaming numbers increase daily, has less and less merit, but no matter how its put to him, he can't see that.
as I posted earlier, BD is at 17% but all it has to do is get to 51% and it is the dominant format, not the 80-90-100% that people like Jim seem to feel would equate to the dominant format.
this is equally true for the penetration of downloads/streaming, I don't know what the numbers are, but the ARE rising. Sony and M$ are offering Netflix as well as having a download store, does anyone think they DON'T have a potential 100M plus userbase, on top of all the other devices Netflix is on, like, you know, new TVs. The recent price from of the Vudu, Apples survey on the ATV, if someone can't see where all that is leading, they need to open their eyes.
I understand though, the argument is dilute, Jim wants to carry around his media in an optical format, I already CAN carry around my media FILES on my iPhone/iPod and play that back on any TV I want. but hey, If Jim can't manage that, well, it's not really my problem.
While the rest of us are saying that VOD is on the rise and will surpass optical media at some point, that IS sooner than we think.
ultimately the whole thing smarts of the microsoft divide and conquer game, "choice" is now less attractive and more of a headache. Do I opt for the best quality in BD the cheapest in DVD or the most convenient (to ME not Jim) in the form of media files (either downloads or self sourced) this "choice" is not helping mass adoption of the "best" option.
No-one is actually "winning" in that, DVD sales are falling, BD is on firmer ground, but is still trying to gain traction and adoption, and VOD/streaming is also only really starting out. there is no apparent "one rule to bind them" hence, I imagine, Apples Hobby status for the ATV.
as I've said before I have 600 films and well over 1000 TV episodes ripped from my DVD collection, I have quite a way to go yet though, so I'm still putting in the odd disc here and there, I havent quite rid myself of the DVD, but its my goal.
BDs are for the REALLY good stuff, TBH Hollywood isn't really producing REALLY good stuff recently.
I think you're really stretching to make it fit. I also think if the last administration hadn't been so stupid we wouldn't be in this mess. However Frank this really does belong in PO and not in what could be considered an attempt at derailment of a hardware discussion which I don't think the mods would like. Please keep it there. Besides the slow economy hasn't killed BR.
The slow economy won't be around forever.
You could however try addressing the points I've raised. And no I won't state them again. You can go back in the thread as well as anyone and read them.
belongs in PO MY ARSE!
its a GLOBAL RECESSION it DIRECTLY effects people spending, and part of the discussion we are trying to have is that people in your opinion will keep spending on plastic discs, because they have some inherent physical "ownership" properties.
you see no value in owning something you store on HDD, so I would assume you don't like paying for software?
I would assume you don't like plastic credit cards, because they don't make you feel secure, like real folding money ??
but a LOT of people have gotten used to carrying one or more plastic cards..
..OH, but hold on, isn't that to do with the economy, so potentially ONLY the domain of PO?
however PART of what you are arguing about IS ACTUALLY what people are USED to, what they "accept as normal" as in they will still cling to physical discs..
.. yet if that were true, paper money wouldn't have taken off, neither would plastic credit cards.. but THEY did, people got used to it, they accept it, it is now THE NORM.
as will downloads of media.. sorry as HAS become accepted norm of media (iTunes music being the number one music retailer)
why can't you see that its inevitable ?
plenty of people have bitched and moaned on forums saying "I won't download anything from iTunes because of DRM" DRM is all but gone, those people have little left to complain about, don't you thin that as time goes on, your fears and problems about downloads will be resolved, solutions found. its just not QUITE mainstream YET, but then neither is BD. but, and heres the thing that seems to escape your understanding, its getting there.
its a GLOBAL RECESSION it DIRECTLY effects people spending, and part of the discussion we are trying to have is that people in your opinion will keep spending on plastic discs, because they have some inherent physical "ownership" properties.
you see no value in owning something you store on HDD, so I would assume you don't like paying for software?
I would assume you don't like plastic credit cards, because they don't make you feel secure, like real folding money ??
but a LOT of people have gotten used to carrying one or more plastic cards..
..OH, but hold on, isn't that to do with the economy, so potentially ONLY the domain of PO?
however PART of what you are arguing about IS ACTUALLY what people are USED to, what they "accept as normal" as in they will still cling to physical discs..
.. yet if that were true, paper money wouldn't have taken off, neither would plastic credit cards.. but THEY did, people got used to it, they accept it, it is now THE NORM.
as will downloads of media.. sorry as HAS become accepted norm of media (iTunes music being the number one music retailer)
why can't you see that its inevitable ?
plenty of people have bitched and moaned on forums saying "I won't download anything from iTunes because of DRM" DRM is all but gone, those people have little left to complain about, don't you thin that as time goes on, your fears and problems about downloads will be resolved, solutions found. its just not QUITE mainstream YET, but then neither is BD. but, and heres the thing that seems to escape your understanding, its getting there.
I think a lot of people here and Jim are really closer to their perspectives than it would appear. I think most of us realize that downloads are coming to fruition, the question is when? Nobody knows, some think it sooner, others later.
What I find interesting which no one has yet metioned is why the economy not only would effect Blu-ray disc sales but also downloads. Just because our economy is "bleeding" as some would say, downloads are certainly not immune. It takes network infrastructure people to reliably and aptly deliver VOD. And if we're talking HD movies at a good quality, it will take network infrastructure improvements in most parts of the world. Granted, you have a good number of metropolitan areas that have adequate infrastructure now, but in order for VOD to go mainstream this infrastructure MUST improve everywhere. And this takes coin...and I see ordinary citizens buying Blu-ray players that will reach $100 by the end of the year quicker than I see adequate network infrastructure for HD coming (you know the kind that doesn't take hours to download, thats what I'm talking about). Especially, in an economy with a President doling out spendulus plans to corporations that in turn go to greedy execs or their own liabilites instead of what they are intended (and to this point to improving network infrastructure.)
Unless, of course Obama makes our country go full communist and improves our network infrastructure through a direct government funded plan for improvement. Then it's a different story, downloads will arrive much, much sooner. Go Mao!
Movie downloads will certainly be affected by the recession as well.
However, a $30. BR disc purchase (which requires an HDTV purchase AND a $300 player purchase) will undoubtedly be hit harder than a $4.99 movie download.
And Hollywood also has to keep legal downloads widely available in a recession, lest there be a serious uptake in the illegal downloading market and they lose control of the market.
Which is exactly what happened to the music industry.
Comments
wow, sounds like the recording studios a few short years back,
talking about music.. [sarcasm] but then THEY were as "right" as you are now..
[/sarcasm]
That's a seperate argument. If it wasn't video would be treated the same as audio in iTunes wouldn't it?
Prove me wrong Walter.
Address the issues.
If you can.
Now if you'll excuse me it's Sunday afternoon and I'm going to take my physical media ( a DVD of the second season of " The Invaders " ) over to my friend's house. He has a nice TV also and doesn't want to go out again. With physical media it isn't a problem.
ok, lemme think now, didn't we have this sort of "non believer" issue with the die hard HD-DVD fan people a few years ago.
what is the magic number you need to see Jim, before you can focus on the writing thats on the wall all the rest of us can see?
Well to be most accurate...
Some of us see a market for both physical media and streaming for the foreseeable future. While this is at odds with Jimmac's stance, it isn't the same as declaring physical media dead.
Besides that, the HD-DVD analogy is probably a bad idea. It doesn't seem like a terribly analogous situation and will likely just get us stuck on non-productive tangents.
That article was written last year so it's only 3 years now until this happens.
You mean last year, before the North American economy started bleeding jobs by the half million in a day?
Yeah, those predictions will hold.
Did Obama slip in a "stimulus" for big TV screens and Blu-Ray in his economic package?[/QUOTE]
You mean illegally.
Walk down the streets in New York City and you see people selling bootleg DVD's of movies that are currently in the movie theater. Its not like piracy is limited to downloading.
This doesn't show that downloading will become the replacement for physical media sales in the near future. All you've done is show the pirating problem is rampant.
For one I never said downloading would replace physical media. For two I am showing that their is a demand for downloading. My over all point is that Blu-ray will not enjoy the media dominance that DVD or VHS both have had.
Lots of people smoke pot right now but it hasn't been legalized or accepted in the mainsteam as a item of choice.
You tossing up strawmen to see if they will stick. They won't.
Show me some information that solves those problems I listed ok?
You've shown no evidence that the problems you list actually effect video downloading. You list some potential problems and then make the leap that they will limit downloading.
The fact that downloading is happening and growing proves that the problems you list are not as serious as you pose them to be.
Because it has to be a legal solution to prove that it will be accepted as a mainstream replacement for physical media. If not you've basically contributed nothing to the discussion. Until these issues are solved downloading will be the realm of the renter and the pirate.
This is the same situation that music has been in. People using it to illegally download content shows the media companies that their is demand and a market for downloading content.
Come on man address the issues if you're so right!
Perhaps you are simply inventing issues for the convenience of you argument.
Walk down the streets in New York City and you see people selling bootleg DVD's of movies that are currently in the movie theater. Its not like piracy is limited to downloading.
For one I never said downloading would replace physical media. For two I am showing that their is a demand for downloading. My over all point is that Blu-ray will not enjoy the media dominance that DVD or VHS both have had.
You tossing up strawmen to see if they will stick. They won't.
You've shown no evidence that the problems you list actually effect video downloading. You list some potential problems and then make the leap that they will limit downloading.
The fact that downloading is happening and growing proves that the problems you list are not as serious as you pose them to be.
This is the same situation that music has been in. People using it to illegally download content shows the media companies that their is demand and a market for downloading content.
Perhaps you are simply inventing issues for the convenience of you argument.
Perhaps you are simply inventing issues for the convenience of you argument
If that were true I'd be the only one saying this but I'm not. Check some of those articles I linked to.
As for the rest I guess I thought you were one of the ones who said they thought downloading would replace physical media. So I guess on that point we're in agreement.
You mean last year, before the North American economy started bleeding jobs by the half million in a day?
Yeah, those predictions will hold.
Did Obama slip in a "stimulus" for big TV screens and Blu-Ray in his economic package?
Hey Frank! Try saying something relevant to the discussion sometime. It's kinda fun!
The link YOU gave referenced a report that was compiled in 2007. If in 2007 it was agreed that BR wouldn't overtake DVD until 2012, what happens when you factor in the mortgage mess, wall street debacle, job losses and overall financial crisis?
There is now a better chance of 2012 seeing the end of the world (according to the Mayans) than seeing DVD being resoundingly overtaken by Blu-Ray.
You don't think the economy factors into this discussion?
The link YOU gave referenced a report that was compiled in 2007. If in 2007 it was agreed that BR wouldn't overtake DVD until 2012, what happens when you factor in the mortgage mess, wall street debacle, job losses and overall financial crisis?
There is now a better chance of 2012 seeing the end of the world (according to the Mayans) than seeing DVD being resoundingly overtaken by Blu-Ray.
You don't think the economy factors into this discussion?
I think you're really stretching to make it fit. I also think if the last administration hadn't been so stupid we wouldn't be in this mess. However Frank this really does belong in PO and not in what could be considered an attempt at derailment of a hardware discussion which I don't think the mods would like. Please keep it there. Besides the slow economy hasn't killed BR.
The slow economy won't be around forever.
You could however try addressing the points I've raised. And no I won't state them again. You can go back in the thread as well as anyone and read them.
People already have way less discretionary income to spend on frivolous things like entertainment. However TV viewership tends to go up in bad economic times. So does drinking and gambling, but that's another thread.
If anything, i'd think that $400 blu-ray players are a tough sell right about now. Certainly players can be had for less though. On the other hand, monthly subscription services like netflix might be similarly effected. People might have a hard time adding one more thing to their monthly budgets.
Does anyone know how cable subscriptions and physical media sales have historically been effected by the economy?
-Video cannot be consumed in its full glory unless it is on a large screen, such as in the home.
-Video can serve as a joyful distraction outside the home in lesser glory on a small screen (phone, portable media device).
-Highly recommended videos are usually shared among family and friends.
Currently, DVD is the only video "container" that can satisfy all 3 of the above (in conjunction with ripping the video to a digital computer file for use on phones and portable media devices).
- Blu-Ray discs can't be ripped using conventional means (e.g. free, easy to use application like Handbrake), so that kills off small screen enjoyment.
- Blu-Ray discs can't be shared with other households unless they also own a Blu-Ray player (not too many Blu-Ray players in households, not as ubiquitous as DVD players).
+ Blu-Ray movies look awesome in HD on the big home TV screen.
-VOD from cable/sat companies can't be converted using conventional means (e.g. free, easy to use application like Handbrake), so that kills off small screen enjoyment.
-VOD cannot be shared with neighbors, even if they have the same cable/sat service.
+VOD programs look fine in SD on the big home TV screen.
-iTunes Movies & Rentals can't be shared with a neighbor unless you authorize their computer. Rentals do not transfer to another computer.
+iTunes Movies & Rentals can be enjoyed on the iPhone or any iPod with video capability.
+iTunes Movies & Rentals look fine in SD on the big home TV screen. If using an Apple TV, they look awesome in HD.
Can you show any statistics that prove broadband adoption or bandwidth speeds currently affecting the demand for video downloads?
If that were true I'd be the only one saying this but I'm not. Check some of those articles I linked to.
I've read the articles you linked to. As I said before those people are giving future predictions based upon what we know right now. They don't know what advancement or social change may happen in the near future.
Can you show any statistics that prove broadband adoption or bandwidth speeds currently affecting the demand for video downloads?
I listed several issues besides bandwidth.
People will download video in the future as they are now. I have no problem with that. Will it replace physical media? Someday maybe but that's a ways off. You've stated that the replacement question is not part of your argument so we are in agreement there. I do think that the 250 gig cap Comcast ( the biggest ISP ) is putting on customers is an indicator that more needs to be done as far bandwidth if they want future adoption. With HD content you could run through that pretty fast.
But if they want to replace physical media entirely there are other issues that need to be solved like portability, what will they offer it with ( special features etc. ), what to charge. These all involve the studios. And that's very unpredictable. The only argument I had with the legality issue is that if it were to replace physical media entirely everyone would have to settle on a legal platform to run this all on. But since as you said you aren't arguing that downloads will replace physical media those are issues we don't need to discuss.
I really have nothing against downloading. I've done in many forms for years myself ( Bit Torrent, iTunes etc. ) but because of the way the studios view it I would hate to see it as the only option. But maybe someday the studios will see the light and you'll be able to download something on iTunes and legally transfer it to a portable device ( disc, flashdrive whatever ) and take it anywhere and play it anywhere. That's the kind of future I'd like to see for downloading. Until then it's pretty much a rental to me.
... But maybe someday the studios will see the light and you'll be able to download something on iTunes and legally transfer it to a portable device ( disc, flashdrive whatever ) and take it anywhere and play it anywhere. That's the kind of future I'd like to see for downloading.
I completely agree but am perhaps more optimistic about the prospect of the studios and consumers reaching a workable compromise.
A couple years ago I probably wouldn't have been so optimistic. But take a look at how far we've come and how quickly it has come despite corporations dragging their feet. All music from the biggest online music seller is now DRM free!
I listed several issues besides bandwidth.
People will download video in the future as they are now. I have no problem with that. Will it replace physical media? Someday maybe but that's a ways off. You've stated that the replacement question is not part of your argument so we are in agreement there. I do think that the 250 gig cap Comcast ( the biggest ISP ) is putting on customers is an indicator that more needs to be done as far bandwidth if they want future adoption. With HD content you could run through that pretty fast.
I don't think downloads will replace physical media anytime soon. Blu-ray does have advantages. And their will be people who will prefer Blu-ray. I've never argued against that. My point is that Blu-ray will not be the dominant media format that DVD and VHS have been in the past.
I really have nothing against downloading. I've done in many forms for years myself ( Bit Torrent, iTunes etc. ) but because of the way the studios view it I would hate to see it as the only option. But maybe someday the studios will see the light and you'll be able to download something on iTunes and legally transfer it to a portable device ( disc, flashdrive whatever ) and take it anywhere and play it anywhere. That's the kind of future I'd like to see for downloading. Until then it's pretty much a rental to me.
The studios will be forced to adjust to what people want. The internet empowers people to provide media when they want it the way they want it. The studios will be forced to cater to this market. The same as music was forced to cater to it.
I don't think downloads will replace physical media anytime soon. Blu-ray does have advantages. And their will be people who will prefer Blu-ray. I've never argued against that. My point is that Blu-ray will not be the dominant media format that DVD and VHS have been in the past.
The studios will be forced to adjust to what people want. The internet empowers people to provide media when they want it the way they want it. The studios will be forced to cater to this market. The same as music was forced to cater to it.
On your last point we'll see. This battle over home video rights has been going on since the early 80's.
For the record I hope you're right.
Besides that, the HD-DVD analogy is probably a bad idea. It doesn't seem like a terribly analogous situation and will likely just get us stuck on non-productive tangents.
ON THIS THREAD!!!!
how could that happen?
Well to be most accurate...
Some of us see a market for both physical media and streaming for the foreseeable future. While this is at odds with Jimmac's stance, it isn't the same as declaring physical media dead.
everything seems to be at odds with his stance, and it IS his stance, a stubborn one that, as the steaming numbers increase daily, has less and less merit, but no matter how its put to him, he can't see that.
as I posted earlier, BD is at 17% but all it has to do is get to 51% and it is the dominant format, not the 80-90-100% that people like Jim seem to feel would equate to the dominant format.
this is equally true for the penetration of downloads/streaming, I don't know what the numbers are, but the ARE rising. Sony and M$ are offering Netflix as well as having a download store, does anyone think they DON'T have a potential 100M plus userbase, on top of all the other devices Netflix is on, like, you know, new TVs. The recent price from of the Vudu, Apples survey on the ATV, if someone can't see where all that is leading, they need to open their eyes.
I understand though, the argument is dilute, Jim wants to carry around his media in an optical format, I already CAN carry around my media FILES on my iPhone/iPod and play that back on any TV I want. but hey, If Jim can't manage that, well, it's not really my problem.
While the rest of us are saying that VOD is on the rise and will surpass optical media at some point, that IS sooner than we think.
ultimately the whole thing smarts of the microsoft divide and conquer game, "choice" is now less attractive and more of a headache. Do I opt for the best quality in BD the cheapest in DVD or the most convenient (to ME not Jim) in the form of media files (either downloads or self sourced) this "choice" is not helping mass adoption of the "best" option.
No-one is actually "winning" in that, DVD sales are falling, BD is on firmer ground, but is still trying to gain traction and adoption, and VOD/streaming is also only really starting out. there is no apparent "one rule to bind them" hence, I imagine, Apples Hobby status for the ATV.
as I've said before I have 600 films and well over 1000 TV episodes ripped from my DVD collection, I have quite a way to go yet though, so I'm still putting in the odd disc here and there, I havent quite rid myself of the DVD, but its my goal.
BDs are for the REALLY good stuff, TBH Hollywood isn't really producing REALLY good stuff recently.
I think you're really stretching to make it fit. I also think if the last administration hadn't been so stupid we wouldn't be in this mess. However Frank this really does belong in PO and not in what could be considered an attempt at derailment of a hardware discussion which I don't think the mods would like. Please keep it there. Besides the slow economy hasn't killed BR.
The slow economy won't be around forever.
You could however try addressing the points I've raised. And no I won't state them again. You can go back in the thread as well as anyone and read them.
belongs in PO MY ARSE!
its a GLOBAL RECESSION it DIRECTLY effects people spending, and part of the discussion we are trying to have is that people in your opinion will keep spending on plastic discs, because they have some inherent physical "ownership" properties.
you see no value in owning something you store on HDD, so I would assume you don't like paying for software?
I would assume you don't like plastic credit cards, because they don't make you feel secure, like real folding money ??
but a LOT of people have gotten used to carrying one or more plastic cards..
..OH, but hold on, isn't that to do with the economy, so potentially ONLY the domain of PO?
however PART of what you are arguing about IS ACTUALLY what people are USED to, what they "accept as normal" as in they will still cling to physical discs..
.. yet if that were true, paper money wouldn't have taken off, neither would plastic credit cards.. but THEY did, people got used to it, they accept it, it is now THE NORM.
as will downloads of media.. sorry as HAS become accepted norm of media (iTunes music being the number one music retailer)
why can't you see that its inevitable ?
plenty of people have bitched and moaned on forums saying "I won't download anything from iTunes because of DRM" DRM is all but gone, those people have little left to complain about, don't you thin that as time goes on, your fears and problems about downloads will be resolved, solutions found. its just not QUITE mainstream YET, but then neither is BD. but, and heres the thing that seems to escape your understanding, its getting there.
belongs in PO MY ARSE!
its a GLOBAL RECESSION it DIRECTLY effects people spending, and part of the discussion we are trying to have is that people in your opinion will keep spending on plastic discs, because they have some inherent physical "ownership" properties.
you see no value in owning something you store on HDD, so I would assume you don't like paying for software?
I would assume you don't like plastic credit cards, because they don't make you feel secure, like real folding money ??
but a LOT of people have gotten used to carrying one or more plastic cards..
..OH, but hold on, isn't that to do with the economy, so potentially ONLY the domain of PO?
however PART of what you are arguing about IS ACTUALLY what people are USED to, what they "accept as normal" as in they will still cling to physical discs..
.. yet if that were true, paper money wouldn't have taken off, neither would plastic credit cards.. but THEY did, people got used to it, they accept it, it is now THE NORM.
as will downloads of media.. sorry as HAS become accepted norm of media (iTunes music being the number one music retailer)
why can't you see that its inevitable ?
plenty of people have bitched and moaned on forums saying "I won't download anything from iTunes because of DRM" DRM is all but gone, those people have little left to complain about, don't you thin that as time goes on, your fears and problems about downloads will be resolved, solutions found. its just not QUITE mainstream YET, but then neither is BD. but, and heres the thing that seems to escape your understanding, its getting there.
I think a lot of people here and Jim are really closer to their perspectives than it would appear. I think most of us realize that downloads are coming to fruition, the question is when? Nobody knows, some think it sooner, others later.
What I find interesting which no one has yet metioned is why the economy not only would effect Blu-ray disc sales but also downloads. Just because our economy is "bleeding" as some would say, downloads are certainly not immune. It takes network infrastructure people to reliably and aptly deliver VOD. And if we're talking HD movies at a good quality, it will take network infrastructure improvements in most parts of the world. Granted, you have a good number of metropolitan areas that have adequate infrastructure now, but in order for VOD to go mainstream this infrastructure MUST improve everywhere. And this takes coin...and I see ordinary citizens buying Blu-ray players that will reach $100 by the end of the year quicker than I see adequate network infrastructure for HD coming (you know the kind that doesn't take hours to download, thats what I'm talking about). Especially, in an economy with a President doling out spendulus plans to corporations that in turn go to greedy execs or their own liabilites instead of what they are intended (and to this point to improving network infrastructure.)
Unless, of course Obama makes our country go full communist and improves our network infrastructure through a direct government funded plan for improvement.
However, a $30. BR disc purchase (which requires an HDTV purchase AND a $300 player purchase) will undoubtedly be hit harder than a $4.99 movie download.
And Hollywood also has to keep legal downloads widely available in a recession, lest there be a serious uptake in the illegal downloading market and they lose control of the market.
Which is exactly what happened to the music industry.