Apple's iPhone may have outsold Android nearly 6-to-1
While Apple may not have had the strongest of holiday sales for Macs and iPods, estimates for sales of iPhone 3G versus T-Mobile's G1 may show Apple's device having outsold one of its closest competitors by a ratio of six to one in the US alone.
Morgan Stanley has issued both research notes and a survey ahead of Apple's quarterly results report that paint a mixed picture for the Cupertino-based electronics maker, but which show the iPhone as favorable all the same.
Based on polls of recent cellphone buyers, the analyst firm believes T-Mobile USA may have sold upwards of 300,000 of its touchscreen G1 handsets from launch in late October through to the end of 2008. In contrast, even Morgan Stanley's prediction of about 1.75 million iPhone 3G units sold through AT&T is about 5.9 times greater than what T-Mobile is believed to have managed.
A number of factors play into the wide gap between the two. Apple's handset had the full run of the quarter as well as significantly longer time to establish its reputation. AT&T also counts a significantly larger subscriber base as well as a much more established 3G data network to encourage sales. T-Mobile's faster data speeds reached only 25 major coverage areas by the end of the year versus over 300 for its challenger.
Worldwide figures aren't mentioned in the survey, though Apple's advantage widens here with over 70 countries selling iPhones where only the UK could sell the G1 outside of the US.
And outside of the cellular industry, Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty cautions that Apple is liable to show relatively disappointing though not catastrophic performance. Apple's Mac sales are estimated to have grown 4 percent year-over-year in December, which is strong in a weak economy but significantly below the 10 percent predicted for the PC business as a whole.
In a consolation to Apple, Huberty notes that Hewlett-Packard fared worse and watched its sales slide 5 percent versus the same month in 2007. The Mac's creator also saw its inventory levels drop to as little as three days where many others' accumulated as customers held off on purchases.
iPod sales are also forecast as partly contradictory. Sales in December may have dropped 9 percent compared to the year before but may still have resulted in a slight market share gain to 71 percent of the entire US market.
Morgan Stanley has issued both research notes and a survey ahead of Apple's quarterly results report that paint a mixed picture for the Cupertino-based electronics maker, but which show the iPhone as favorable all the same.
Based on polls of recent cellphone buyers, the analyst firm believes T-Mobile USA may have sold upwards of 300,000 of its touchscreen G1 handsets from launch in late October through to the end of 2008. In contrast, even Morgan Stanley's prediction of about 1.75 million iPhone 3G units sold through AT&T is about 5.9 times greater than what T-Mobile is believed to have managed.
A number of factors play into the wide gap between the two. Apple's handset had the full run of the quarter as well as significantly longer time to establish its reputation. AT&T also counts a significantly larger subscriber base as well as a much more established 3G data network to encourage sales. T-Mobile's faster data speeds reached only 25 major coverage areas by the end of the year versus over 300 for its challenger.
Worldwide figures aren't mentioned in the survey, though Apple's advantage widens here with over 70 countries selling iPhones where only the UK could sell the G1 outside of the US.
And outside of the cellular industry, Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty cautions that Apple is liable to show relatively disappointing though not catastrophic performance. Apple's Mac sales are estimated to have grown 4 percent year-over-year in December, which is strong in a weak economy but significantly below the 10 percent predicted for the PC business as a whole.
In a consolation to Apple, Huberty notes that Hewlett-Packard fared worse and watched its sales slide 5 percent versus the same month in 2007. The Mac's creator also saw its inventory levels drop to as little as three days where many others' accumulated as customers held off on purchases.
iPod sales are also forecast as partly contradictory. Sales in December may have dropped 9 percent compared to the year before but may still have resulted in a slight market share gain to 71 percent of the entire US market.
Comments
I haven't seen a single G1 in the wild.
I'd like to see what other users have noticed.
I haven't seen a single G1 in the wild.
I'd like to see what other users have noticed.
I've seen one. But, to be fair, I didn't see many iPhones for the first six months of its life and now they're as common as muck in the UK.
I'm still waiting for the first really compelling Android device. The G1 is nice for a software point-of-view but the hardware stinks. I'm trying to think of who will deliver the first mainstream Android phone and the only name that springs to mind is Sony Ericsson. Their record with smartphones is exactly anything to write home about over the past few years though.
From anecdotal observation in the UK: Apple and O2 have had an outstanding Christmas period with iPhone 3G.
I haven't seen a single G1 in the wild.
I'd like to see what other users have noticed.
I was with a couple friends a couple weeks ago and it was 2 G1's to 1 iPhone. Of course, they both worked for Google and got their phones free.
The Android plan is a long-term one, though. Getting too complacent over one quarter isn't a good idea. Being a GPL'ed device, there are more libraries and data sources available to G1 developers. In a few iterations they'll probably have a pretty compelling product that will have a solid developer ecosystem. AT&T is bigger than T-Mobile, but everyone-else-combined is bigger than AT&T.
Android had absolutely no Killer Feature. The marketing of Android mainly consisted of mentioning Google owns it and that it's open source.
What exact magic bullet were people expecting? I fail to see where open source delivers anything special when it's confined by the draconian policy of the networks.
The iPhone shows that to enjoy incredible success you have to be more than a phone. You have to forge an eco system. The iPhone has done this via parlaying ipod success into a ramp for iPhone success.
Everyone expects an iPhone killer with just a phone...yawn. I need more than a phone I need a platform.
I was with a couple friends a couple weeks ago and it was 2 G1's to 1 iPhone. Of course, they both worked for Google and got their phones free.
The Android plan is a long-term one, though. Getting too complacent over one quarter isn't a good idea. Being a GPL'ed device, there are more libraries and data sources available to G1 developers. In a few iterations they'll probably have a pretty compelling product that will have a solid developer ecosystem. AT&T is bigger than T-Mobile, but everyone-else-combined is bigger than AT&T.
I agree.
Personally, I find Android's UI to be kind of ho-hum at the moment and the G1's hardware quality barely above that of a rusty washing machine, but in the long run Android has a very good chance of being the only real compelling alternative to the iPhone.
Open source is a long term game and if Android has enough time to prove itself it will almot certainly be a winner IMO.
"We will extend an open hand to all those who will unclench their fists" - Go Obama!!!
Bring that iPhone of yours to the White House...
The iPhone is glossy and the UI is the best on the market. On the other hand, you're definitely playing in Apple's sandbox. It's Apple and AT&T's phone--not yours--and they never stop letting you know that.
The G1 has a certain amount of tie-in to Google, but at least I can drop a foreign SIM in and make a call. (T-Mobile unlocks phones for customers in good standing. What a concept.)
Frankly, the G1's hardware keyboard coupled with the full touch screen *is* a killer feature in my book. The on-screen keyboard for the iPhone in portrait mode is a joke. In landscape mode it's nice, but it uses most of the screen. A perfect example of this that an ssh app for the G1 (ConnectBot) is actually usable.
Is Apple still charging to develop for its phone? Do you still have to ask for their permission to distribute an app?
Let's put it this way: If Apple were to charge for Mac development, require permission to distribute Mac apps, and tie the Mac's networking only to AOL--people would be ticked. Why do people tolerate obnoxious corporate behavior on their cell phones?
That may - and probably will - change in the future, but right now the iPhone stands alone.
Let's put it this way: If Apple were to charge for Mac development, require permission to distribute Mac apps, and tie the Mac's networking only to AOL--people would be ticked. Why do people tolerate obnoxious corporate behavior on their cell phones?
Cell provider's networks aren't public infrastructures.
Apple charges money because they host the apps which takes bandwidth and storage of wich neither is free.
Apple must also play in that sandbox that is owned by AT&T.
Just because the android OS is open source doesn't mean that developers will be able to create anything.
Android "Kill Switch"
"Google may discover a product that violates the developer distribution agreement ... in such an instance, Google retains the right to remotely remove those applications from your device at its sole discretion"
Yeah....it's open<sarcasm>
I have a G1. ... Is Apple still charging to develop for its phone? ...
Your whole post is a pretty nasty piece of work, but the implication that Apple "charges" you to develop for the iPhone is particularly misleading nonsense.
This year the Iphone is the in thing to have... under certain logic I can see it is what most people that follow fads want to have.
Second thing that needs to be kept in mind.. you are comparing a final product like the Iphone 3G with a beta product the G1. So this is expected.
Fact is, 1 million G1's were sold in 3 days less then the iphone (71 to 74 days). Which goes to prove that the G1 was a success,
http://www.googleandblog.com/android...n-iphone/3564/
My personal experience is that I do know 2 people out of about 10000 that I have dealt with since early Dec 2008 that have bought an Iphone, in the same period I know of 5 people that have gotten a G1.
One big drawback is the G1 is battery life.. you need a suppercharged 2400 mA battery to make it work properly, but they do their job well.
The long standing problem is not the G1 .. its Android.... a lot more manufactures will produce Android based phones and that is the issue. G1 is only the first of many more to come.
Android will never be an iPhone killer because for that it has to meet ALL features that iPhone has plus many more to kill it. I haven't seen a phone that can kill iPhone. (or am I missing something?)
If that's true, and the ratio is only 6 to 1, it has to be considered a incredible success for the Android phone.
Horescrap. It has to be considered a success when T-Mobile USA reveals the sales for the phones it actually sells. Let's see how it faired against the Blackberry and Windows Mobile phones.
If T-Mobile USA sold iPhones the gap of total G1 phones sold in the US would be even greater.
If that's true, and the ratio is only 6 to 1, it has to be considered a incredible success for the Android phone.
Absolutely. T-Mobile + Google don't have the advertising presence that Apple + AT&T do. I haven't even seen ANY ads for the Android phone; have there been any? Plus a lot of people don't want to switch to T-Mobile's network. All things considered, the figures for the Android phone are better than I expected.
Is Apple still charging to develop for its phone? Do you still have to ask for their permission to distribute an app?
Let's put it this way: If Apple were to charge for Mac development, require permission to distribute Mac apps, and tie the Mac's networking only to AOL--people would be ticked. Why do people tolerate obnoxious corporate behavior on their cell phones?
Oh please. Yes, you have to pay $99. Google subsidizes their SDK with search engine cash, while Apple subsidizes theirs with iPhone profit, because $99 sure doesn't begin to cover everything you get (including 2 support incidents with actual Apple engineers.) $99 is really cheap.
And no, you don't have to ask permission, but Apple can veto apps. They appear to have actually done so in about 0.01% of apps so far. In the meantime, it's virtually impossible not to at least break even developing for the platform even starting from nothing.
So Google will get the idealistic developers and Apple will get the ones who want to start businesses. We'll see whether idealism or money sustains these developers longer.
Absolutely. T-Mobile + Google don't have the advertising presence that Apple + AT&T do. I haven't even seen ANY ads for the Android phone; have there been any? Plus a lot of people don't want to switch to T-Mobile's network. All things considered, the figures for the Android phone are better than I expected.
I've seen a lot. Ones with twins asking if they have the same fingerprints or something and suggesting looking it up on your cellphone. They were pretty bad ads-- you might have seen them and just forgotten.
I've seen a lot. Ones with twins asking if they have the same fingerprints or something and suggesting looking it up on your cellphone. They were pretty bad ads-- you might have seen them and just forgotten.
I don't understand the ads for the G1- the pitch seems to be that it has a browser and you can look stuff up. As if it hasn't occured to anyone that having a functional browser on your cellphone is useful.
Doesn't seem like a compelling differentiator, at this point.