Greg I don't spout hogwash. AVC and VC-1 are superior codecs to MPEG2. The BDA had to be convinced to add an advanced codec. Why? Because Sony's greed wanted them to focus on MPEG2 which looks great but is 2x less efficient than VC-1/AVC at the same bitrate. Thus they needed the extra space to deliver the right quality and have room for extras.
I don't feel "stuck" at all. Universal showed live Internet content on HD DVD media at CES and this will likely beat BD-Live to the market. HD DVD owners have gotten everything faster than Blu-ray. Interactivity, Dual Layer discs, PiP functions and soon internet content. The superior platform is clearly with HD DVD for anyone looking beyond storage per disc (which HD DVD still has the lead) and bandwidth.
Java is better for creating applications but for developing an interactive layer with networking and syncronization I'm thinking that HDi is going to be better and easier to author. We'll see..the jury is still out on this one.
You say "Competition will do this anyway" Do you realize that only 2 of the BD players will support BD live because they have ethernet ports. A $1499 Pioneer and the Playstation 3. That means all the Samsung, Sony, Philips and Panasonic players sold are already obsolete and incomplete. They cannot connect to the internet for syncronized content. Rebuy your player if you want a complete Profile 2 player. Not cool.
EVERY HD DVD player has networking. EVERY HD player has persistant storage, EVERY HD layer has PiP functionality with dual video and audio decoders. Mandatory lossless audio and DD Plus. No matter how cheap. Blu-ray can't offer this..the spec doesn't make a vendor do so.
Both formats are inferior for data storage at a small business and up level.
So we've established that Blu-ray does not offers superior PQ and has a loose specification that doesn't guarantee me a solid full featured player. Then we add in the price premium they want us to pay for it and it's clear that it is not the solution that consumers need IMO.
If you want to pay more money and get less by all means buy into the hype. I'll be over here enjoying the best HD platform on the planet.
Yeah, until it fails and you can't buy HD-DVD. You make some very valid points, but the problem is those points won't necessarily determine the success or failure of the format. It's not as if a panel of experts will declare GAME, SET, MATCH!---it'll be left up to more complex forces.
We can all have our personal opinions. However, let's keep in mind the failure of Betamax. Other than capacity, it was a far better format, or most people think so. But content was the death of it. Right now, Blu-Ray has two huge advantages: 1) Many more content companies and 2) The PS3.
My point is that the best format doesn't always win. HD-DVD could have twice the capacity, better picture quality and durability...and still lose. It's just the way things are.
haha i laughed to. i guess he underestimates the seriousness of people who enjoy porn.
Well here's a dumb question...if video quality was that important to porn folks are porn downloads in 720p? Heck, do they even film in HD or for that matter film?
Dunno, I would think instant access via the internet more useful than higer quality physical media.
haha i laughed to. i guess he underestimates the seriousness of people who enjoy porn.
I posted a link to the Slashdot article about HD DVD and porn earlier on in this thread, but only half seriously because I'm not really sure how seriously to take it.
I think it's probably true that porn had a lot to do with the success of VHS over Beta. I didn't realize until I read the Slashdot article that Sony was actively discouraging porn being distributed on its favored format, then and now.
Thing is, back when VHS vs. Beta was raging, videotape was the only practical and convenient way to see moving-picture porn in the privacy of your own home (8mm film hardly counted as practical or convenient). Now there are many options: old VHS tapes, new DVDs, and internet downloads. Whatever added thrill some might get from seeing porn in high def, that can't compare to the appetite that was waiting to be filled when VHS and Beta first came along.
I think porn will be a factor, I just don't know how big. If Sony simply refuses to let anyone distribute porn on Blu-Ray, I think they're assuring HD DVD a continuing existence. And if HD DVD pressing facilities spring up for churning out porn, it seems unlikely that there won't be others, including movie studios, ready and eager to use those same pressing facilities, which in the near term will be cheaper to run than Blu-Ray operations.
At a minimum, I think the HD DVD/porn link increases the likelihood we'll see more dual format machines besides the one from LG over the next year. Perhaps we'll end up with both formats co-existing, with most movies on Blu-Ray, and porn, some movies, and budget titles on HD DVD.
shetline, IMO is right on that porn was a factor then because 8MM reel projector film was the only real option to see porn, but now days porn is readily available in multiple formats. I don't really think porn is going to have that great of an effect on anything being that it's readily available everywhere.
And actually the biggest thing about VHS and Beta was Beta only held one hour of movie. You needed to have two tapes to watch a theatrical movie. So really the real reason VHS won was you could fit a whole movie on it. We definitely don't have that problem here.
Somehow I get the impression that the MSM loves this format war controversy. Is this a title fight on PPV and how much does it cost?
But seriously, I think that by the time we get to 2G or 3G players (in both formats including combo) and most of the studios have a decent HD library released, that's when things will start to shake out.
And right now, sitting on the sidelines, given the studios that are supporting/releasing Blu-Ray titles over the next 12 months versus HD-DVD titles, given possible PS3 market penetration worldwide, what HD movie format/player do you think most of those 2G/3G sales are going to go to?
IMHO, it's going to be either Blu-Ray or a HD combo player, because people are going to look at available 1st tier titles and most of those are going to be exclusively Blu-Ray.
Sony came in third among the next-generation systems, selling 490,700 units for a total of 687,300 units in American homes from launch to year end out of Sony's reported shipments of 1 million units. NPD belives that Sony actually had an overabundance of inventory at retail, but was unable to capitalize on early consumer interest.
So of the 1 millions PS3s they shipped to the US, only 690,000 were sold at retail. So 69%. So even if that earlier survey were believed to be true (which I think an 80% conversion rate is high, seeing as how no where near that number have HDTVs), we are talking about 550,000 Blu-Ray players...not 800,000.
I guess maybe those stories of people able to go pickup PS3s might be true, if some 300,000 are sitting on store shelfs.
So of the 1 millions PS3s they shipped to the US, only 690,000 were sold at retail. So 69%. So even if that earlier survey were believed to be true (which I think an 80% conversion rate is high, seeing as how no where near that number have HDTVs), we are talking about 550,000 Blu-Ray players...not 800,000.
I guess maybe those stories of people able to go pickup PS3s might be true, if some 300,000 are sitting on store shelfs.
Yup, and given the post-holiday buying lull and the PS3 price points versus the Wii and the Wii's current demand, I don't the January PS3 sales figures will look too incouraging either, IMHO.
Yup, and given the post-holiday buying lull and the PS3 price points versus the Wii and the Wii's current demand, I don't the January PS3 sales figures will look too incouraging either, IMHO.
I wonder the sales figures for the Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-on. I have searched up and down, and all I found was an unattributed wikipedia entry stating that as of January 8th, there have been 150,000 Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-ons sold. It would be nice to see some hard figures on that (maybe from NPD, or Microsoft even). What would be really great would be to get figures on all HD-DVD players vs Blu-ray players sold to date (and then do some guesstimate math work for the PS3 factor...) I would bet that the figures would be quite close.
The #1 seller was from Sony if you read the article. It was the PS2 with 1.4 million units. 360 only had 1.1 million. There is a stockpile of like 15 20GB PS3 units at a store by me, but the 60GB units still don't stay on shelfs for more than a couple days.
Metal Gear is going to bring on some serious sales for Sony when it is released. You'll see a lot of those PS2 ownners upgrading.
Pioneer's first Blu-ray drive featured full read and write capability for Blu-ray and DVD formats but did not have CD read or write capability. The drive was mainly designed for industrial use in creating or playing back Blu-ray discs. Pioneer will be introducing the new BDC-202 drive that offers full DVD/CD read and write features with Blu-ray BD-ROM, BD-R, and BD-RE playback capability. The drive should be available around the beginning of Q2 with an estimated street price below $399 and features a true SATA interface.
Street price of $400 for Blu-Ray burner, looks like a pretty attractive pricepoint to me! Do any of Apple;s computers support SATA peripherals (other than HD's) natively? Or can you just substitute a SATA HD with this?
EDIT, oops I guess it's not a Blu-Ray burner just a player, I take back what I said above about attractive pricepoint.
The #1 seller was from Sony if you read the article. It was the PS2 with 1.4 million units. 360 only had 1.1 million. There is a stockpile of like 15 20GB PS3 units at a store by me, but the 60GB units still don't stay on shelfs for more than a couple days.
Metal Gear is going to bring on some serious sales for Sony when it is released. You'll see a lot of those PS2 ownners upgrading.
That's definitely what the PS3 needs as a game console, more titles.
shetline, IMO is right on that porn was a factor then because 8MM reel projector film was the only real option to see porn, but now days porn is readily available in multiple formats. I don't really think porn is going to have that great of an effect on anything being that it's readily available everywhere.
And actually the biggest thing about VHS and Beta was Beta only held one hour of movie. You needed to have two tapes to watch a theatrical movie. So really the real reason VHS won was you could fit a whole movie on it. We definitely don't have that problem here.
Here's what you said when I made the original post about no porn for Sony back in April:
"It's not up to Sony who uses The Blue Ray format. It's up to Sony Who's movies sony pictures distributes."
ccording to NPD?s figures, the hardware sold 42,000 units in November and 50,000 in December.
NPD analyst Anita Frazier said that the life-to-date figure indicates a 2 percent attach rate to the Xbox 360 install base. The firm reported last night that life-to-date Xbox 360 sales in the US stand at 4.5 million units.
Wow that's a lot. Look for a bangin 2007 as Microsoft gets these drives into more and more homes.
Wow that's a lot. Look for a bangin 2007 as Microsoft gets these drives into more and more homes.
Pure speculation here, but it would not surprise me one bit if >1M Xbox HD-DVD addon's were sold this year, given it's pricepoint, the installed base (through the end of this year), and the current attachment rate (2% and plenty of room to grow this year).
Here's what you said when I made the original post about no porn for Sony back in April:
"It's not up to Sony who uses The Blue Ray format. It's up to Sony Who's movies sony pictures distributes."
And that is still my opinion on the matter. Nothing changed. What is the corelation between that, and the importance of Porn on the industry Today vs. Yester-Year?
Pure speculation here, but it would not surprise me one bit if >1M Xbox HD-DVD addon's were sold this year, given it's pricepoint, the installed base (through the end of this year), and the current attachment rate (2% and plenty of room to grow this year).
I think you're right. Supposedly the HD DVD Promotions Group said they plan to sell 2.5 million HD DVD players. I'm thinking that the Xbox should account for at least 800k. Evidently MS told people at CES that they've shipped 150k Xbox drives. The 92k is estimated and should only be North Am numbers.
Comments
Exactly. Secondly, I don't think you'll see much of a market for hi-def porn.
Greg I don't spout hogwash. AVC and VC-1 are superior codecs to MPEG2. The BDA had to be convinced to add an advanced codec. Why? Because Sony's greed wanted them to focus on MPEG2 which looks great but is 2x less efficient than VC-1/AVC at the same bitrate. Thus they needed the extra space to deliver the right quality and have room for extras.
I don't feel "stuck" at all. Universal showed live Internet content on HD DVD media at CES and this will likely beat BD-Live to the market. HD DVD owners have gotten everything faster than Blu-ray. Interactivity, Dual Layer discs, PiP functions and soon internet content. The superior platform is clearly with HD DVD for anyone looking beyond storage per disc (which HD DVD still has the lead) and bandwidth.
Java is better for creating applications but for developing an interactive layer with networking and syncronization I'm thinking that HDi is going to be better and easier to author. We'll see..the jury is still out on this one.
You say "Competition will do this anyway" Do you realize that only 2 of the BD players will support BD live because they have ethernet ports. A $1499 Pioneer and the Playstation 3. That means all the Samsung, Sony, Philips and Panasonic players sold are already obsolete and incomplete. They cannot connect to the internet for syncronized content. Rebuy your player if you want a complete Profile 2 player. Not cool.
EVERY HD DVD player has networking. EVERY HD player has persistant storage, EVERY HD layer has PiP functionality with dual video and audio decoders. Mandatory lossless audio and DD Plus. No matter how cheap. Blu-ray can't offer this..the spec doesn't make a vendor do so.
Both formats are inferior for data storage at a small business and up level.
So we've established that Blu-ray does not offers superior PQ and has a loose specification that doesn't guarantee me a solid full featured player. Then we add in the price premium they want us to pay for it and it's clear that it is not the solution that consumers need IMO.
If you want to pay more money and get less by all means buy into the hype. I'll be over here enjoying the best HD platform on the planet.
Yeah, until it fails and you can't buy HD-DVD. You make some very valid points, but the problem is those points won't necessarily determine the success or failure of the format. It's not as if a panel of experts will declare GAME, SET, MATCH!---it'll be left up to more complex forces.
We can all have our personal opinions. However, let's keep in mind the failure of Betamax. Other than capacity, it was a far better format, or most people think so. But content was the death of it. Right now, Blu-Ray has two huge advantages: 1) Many more content companies and 2) The PS3.
My point is that the best format doesn't always win. HD-DVD could have twice the capacity, better picture quality and durability...and still lose. It's just the way things are.
haha i laughed to. i guess he underestimates the seriousness of people who enjoy porn.
haha i laughed to. i guess he underestimates the seriousness of people who enjoy porn.
Well here's a dumb question...if video quality was that important to porn folks are porn downloads in 720p? Heck, do they even film in HD or for that matter film?
Dunno, I would think instant access via the internet more useful than higer quality physical media.
Vinea
haha i laughed to. i guess he underestimates the seriousness of people who enjoy porn.
I posted a link to the Slashdot article about HD DVD and porn earlier on in this thread, but only half seriously because I'm not really sure how seriously to take it.
I think it's probably true that porn had a lot to do with the success of VHS over Beta. I didn't realize until I read the Slashdot article that Sony was actively discouraging porn being distributed on its favored format, then and now.
Thing is, back when VHS vs. Beta was raging, videotape was the only practical and convenient way to see moving-picture porn in the privacy of your own home (8mm film hardly counted as practical or convenient). Now there are many options: old VHS tapes, new DVDs, and internet downloads. Whatever added thrill some might get from seeing porn in high def, that can't compare to the appetite that was waiting to be filled when VHS and Beta first came along.
I think porn will be a factor, I just don't know how big. If Sony simply refuses to let anyone distribute porn on Blu-Ray, I think they're assuring HD DVD a continuing existence. And if HD DVD pressing facilities spring up for churning out porn, it seems unlikely that there won't be others, including movie studios, ready and eager to use those same pressing facilities, which in the near term will be cheaper to run than Blu-Ray operations.
At a minimum, I think the HD DVD/porn link increases the likelihood we'll see more dual format machines besides the one from LG over the next year. Perhaps we'll end up with both formats co-existing, with most movies on Blu-Ray, and porn, some movies, and budget titles on HD DVD.
And actually the biggest thing about VHS and Beta was Beta only held one hour of movie. You needed to have two tapes to watch a theatrical movie. So really the real reason VHS won was you could fit a whole movie on it. We definitely don't have that problem here.
Somehow I get the impression that the MSM loves this format war controversy. Is this a title fight on PPV and how much does it cost?
But seriously, I think that by the time we get to 2G or 3G players (in both formats including combo) and most of the studios have a decent HD library released, that's when things will start to shake out.
And right now, sitting on the sidelines, given the studios that are supporting/releasing Blu-Ray titles over the next 12 months versus HD-DVD titles, given possible PS3 market penetration
IMHO, it's going to be either Blu-Ray or a HD combo player, because people are going to look at available 1st tier titles and most of those are going to be exclusively Blu-Ray.
Holiday gaming sales figures released. Is there a clear winner?
Game Over?
Holiday gaming sales figures released. Is there a clear winner?
Game Over?
An interesting note from that article:
Sony came in third among the next-generation systems, selling 490,700 units for a total of 687,300 units in American homes from launch to year end out of Sony's reported shipments of 1 million units. NPD belives that Sony actually had an overabundance of inventory at retail, but was unable to capitalize on early consumer interest.
So of the 1 millions PS3s they shipped to the US, only 690,000 were sold at retail. So 69%. So even if that earlier survey were believed to be true (which I think an 80% conversion rate is high, seeing as how no where near that number have HDTVs), we are talking about 550,000 Blu-Ray players...not 800,000.
I guess maybe those stories of people able to go pickup PS3s might be true, if some 300,000 are sitting on store shelfs.
An interesting note from that article:
So of the 1 millions PS3s they shipped to the US, only 690,000 were sold at retail. So 69%. So even if that earlier survey were believed to be true (which I think an 80% conversion rate is high, seeing as how no where near that number have HDTVs), we are talking about 550,000 Blu-Ray players...not 800,000.
I guess maybe those stories of people able to go pickup PS3s might be true, if some 300,000 are sitting on store shelfs.
Yup, and given the post-holiday buying lull and the PS3 price points versus the Wii and the Wii's current demand, I don't the January PS3 sales figures will look too incouraging either, IMHO.
Yup, and given the post-holiday buying lull and the PS3 price points versus the Wii and the Wii's current demand, I don't the January PS3 sales figures will look too incouraging either, IMHO.
I wonder the sales figures for the Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-on. I have searched up and down, and all I found was an unattributed wikipedia entry stating that as of January 8th, there have been 150,000 Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-ons sold. It would be nice to see some hard figures on that (maybe from NPD, or Microsoft even). What would be really great would be to get figures on all HD-DVD players vs Blu-ray players sold to date (and then do some guesstimate math work for the PS3 factor...) I would bet that the figures would be quite close.
Metal Gear is going to bring on some serious sales for Sony when it is released. You'll see a lot of those PS2 ownners upgrading.
Plagiarized from AnandTech (see bottom of page)
Pioneer's first Blu-ray drive featured full read and write capability for Blu-ray and DVD formats but did not have CD read or write capability. The drive was mainly designed for industrial use in creating or playing back Blu-ray discs. Pioneer will be introducing the new BDC-202 drive that offers full DVD/CD read and write features with Blu-ray BD-ROM, BD-R, and BD-RE playback capability. The drive should be available around the beginning of Q2 with an estimated street price below $399 and features a true SATA interface.
Street price of $400 for Blu-Ray burner, looks like a pretty attractive pricepoint to me! Do any of Apple;s computers support SATA peripherals (other than HD's) natively? Or can you just substitute a SATA HD with this?
EDIT, oops I guess it's not a Blu-Ray burner just a player, I take back what I said above about attractive pricepoint.
The #1 seller was from Sony if you read the article. It was the PS2 with 1.4 million units. 360 only had 1.1 million. There is a stockpile of like 15 20GB PS3 units at a store by me, but the 60GB units still don't stay on shelfs for more than a couple days.
Metal Gear is going to bring on some serious sales for Sony when it is released. You'll see a lot of those PS2 ownners upgrading.
That's definitely what the PS3 needs as a game console, more titles.
shetline, IMO is right on that porn was a factor then because 8MM reel projector film was the only real option to see porn, but now days porn is readily available in multiple formats. I don't really think porn is going to have that great of an effect on anything being that it's readily available everywhere.
And actually the biggest thing about VHS and Beta was Beta only held one hour of movie. You needed to have two tapes to watch a theatrical movie. So really the real reason VHS won was you could fit a whole movie on it. We definitely don't have that problem here.
Here's what you said when I made the original post about no porn for Sony back in April:
"It's not up to Sony who uses The Blue Ray format. It's up to Sony Who's movies sony pictures distributes."
ccording to NPD?s figures, the hardware sold 42,000 units in November and 50,000 in December.
NPD analyst Anita Frazier said that the life-to-date figure indicates a 2 percent attach rate to the Xbox 360 install base. The firm reported last night that life-to-date Xbox 360 sales in the US stand at 4.5 million units.
Wow that's a lot. Look for a bangin 2007 as Microsoft gets these drives into more and more homes.
http://www.tgdaily.com/2007/01/11/ce...hddvd_blu_ray/
HD-DVD wins. End of story.
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4531&Itemid=2
Wow that's a lot. Look for a bangin 2007 as Microsoft gets these drives into more and more homes.
Pure speculation here, but it would not surprise me one bit if >1M Xbox HD-DVD addon's were sold this year, given it's pricepoint, the installed base (through the end of this year), and the current attachment rate (2% and plenty of room to grow this year).
Here's what you said when I made the original post about no porn for Sony back in April:
"It's not up to Sony who uses The Blue Ray format. It's up to Sony Who's movies sony pictures distributes."
And that is still my opinion on the matter. Nothing changed. What is the corelation between that, and the importance of Porn on the industry Today vs. Yester-Year?
Pure speculation here, but it would not surprise me one bit if >1M Xbox HD-DVD addon's were sold this year, given it's pricepoint, the installed base (through the end of this year), and the current attachment rate (2% and plenty of room to grow this year).
I think you're right. Supposedly the HD DVD Promotions Group said they plan to sell 2.5 million HD DVD players. I'm thinking that the Xbox should account for at least 800k. Evidently MS told people at CES that they've shipped 150k Xbox drives. The 92k is estimated and should only be North Am numbers.