I care about them. I know others who care about them. That's what real collectors do. By your logic, why bother with extra features at all?
Oh, and watch your tongue. You're mother would be ashamed.
I've tried to think they were cool, but they aren't. I don't care for someone's commentary on the movie. I've tried to watch them, but most are crap anyways. There is rarely good extra material. I am a collector... of the movie. Extras begone!
So what? A "fact" about your opinion of someone else's opinion is a of zero value in terms of concrete information about a point. Got it?
Quantify "a lot of people". Show your sources for this number.
Repeated assertion does not make a "fact" or an opinion "right". Got it?
Also, it is clearly obvious that Paramount is not the key to the success of BR or it would have failed already. The movies will come. There is no barrier to announcing new releases closer to Christmas and the movie catalog continues to expand.
Folks that purchased into a format war clearly understood that it was very likely that one would end up the loser. If the BR studios and CE manufacturers do something nice, great. Is it required? Doubtful.
Why is a "positive" spin required for winning a format war anyway?
Ancedotal evidence is not compelling. Especially if we assume that prices continue to drop and there is going to be increased marketing by both CE manufacturers and movie studios to promote BR. This is NOT going to occur in March. Or April. Or May. It will happen closer to XMas.
Why is the future for HD any bleaker than it was pre-victory? It isn't. Got it?
That's a different position than questioning "if BR is a viable format" or suggesting it will become a niche format like LD. That's not me putting words in your mouth but a direct quote. One is FUD, the other is not. Got it?
VHS hadn't won the format war until the mid 80s and was equally well established when DVD appeared in 1996. About 10-12 years between VHS dominance and introduction of a new format. DVD is about 12 years old.
HD-DVD and BR is in the general ballpark for a replacement technology given the relative few data point to form a trend for consumer video formats. There aren't THAT many relevant similar instances in your lifetime. Got it?
It has been argued by some folks that the buying public has a two christmas window for accepting new technology (ignoring the multi-year VHS vs Beta war where VHS eventually gained dominance) and even if you accept that pessimistic view BR has at LEAST one XMas more in which to gain acceptance and possibly two depending on if you count this as the first XMas in the window (post format war). Bill Hunt might have even mentioned that (although I haven't hunted for a reference) since you seem to accept his word as law.
Oh, and just because you're older does not give you any greater insight into technology. There is likely a negative correlation between technology prognostication and age. Got it?
I could claim to be 25, 45 or 65 vs your 55 and you wouldn't know the reality and frankly it makes zero difference. Got it?
And saying "Got it?" even with a lame smiley is still annoying. Got it?
It's like saying "I think you're too stupid to get it so I'm going to ask. Oh just kidding...here's a smiley ". Got it?
I read what you write and even read what you link. That I disagree doesn't mean I don't get it. It means I disagree. Got it?
Ok according to you BR can do no wrong. And there's nothing that they have to do to insure success.
It's true the internet is a totally anonymous and I could be anyone so could you. But to be quite frank I have nothing really to hide and really am 54 soon to turn 55 on May 10th.
Believe it. Don't believe it. I don't really care!
It's clear you're closed minded to anything that might be a negative slant on your pet product and won't listen to anyone else no matter what. Also you have a really smug attitude which I find just as annoying as you seem to find my emoticons. But they're there for anyone to use so I don't see what the difference is.
There's likely a tendency for younger people like yourself to not listen to people who have more experience ( age wise and product wise ) simply because when you're young you don't like to listen to someone who might have more insight. That's ok I was that way when I was younger myself.
So go ahead don't pay me any heed but if ( and that's if ) you do see a BR player at a garage sale because it got lost in the race for newer and better technology think about what I've said.
On this point : " VHS hadn't won the format war until the mid 80s and was equally well established when DVD appeared in 1996. About 10-12 years between VHS dominance and introduction of a new format. DVD is about 12 years old.
HD-DVD and BR is in the general ballpark for a replacement technology given the relative few data point to form a trend for consumer video formats. There aren't THAT many relevant similar instances in your lifetime. Got it? "
You're illustrating one of my points. The transition between VHS, Beta, vs no home media is very different. Now we have a media that is an unqualified success and is only 12 years old! One transition that might be more applicable is LPs to CD. Records ( dragging a needle through a groove ) had been around ( in one form or another ) for the better part of a hundred years. It was more than time for a change. CDs didn't take long to catch on although some still prefer LPs ( which I won't get into right now ). Now you want people to buy into a different format and most people are still satisfied with DVD ( picture, price etc. ). That's what has to overcome. And it has to be done relatively soon ( next few years ). Because I believe something else will come along or the average buyer will simply lose interest. And BR will be the LD of the 21rst century. I don't want to see that happen as I like an HD picture much more than SD.
Also even if you don't believe it the average consumer out there that's even heard of the format war wanted nothing to do with it. Now you have a buch of people who got the shaft because they took a side and lost. And all you can say is " poor babys ". Well that attitude won't sell anyone on BR players and might push them in the direction of " I don't want anything thing to do with it . I'm satisfied with my DVD collection and it looks good enough for me ".
So there you are I guess there is nothing I can say that will make you understand I want BR to win but not just to be another Laser Disc.
Also you don't have to listen to me however this is an open forum and fair is fair. You're not going to keep me from speaking my mind on this subject.
Honestly the only movies I actually watched all the extras for was for The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, like 8 hours of them, and all the Star Wars ones. Unless it's some breakthrough epic undertaking I've never seen the need for all of them. Now I have watched the alternate endings, deleted scenes in quite a few movies, but the making of crap you see on HBO all the time, the actor biographies and all that other garbage is really not that big of a deal for me. That's just my opinion. I think I watch more of the extras than the average person though. I room with two other people, and nether of them watch anything other than just the movie. To me they represent your average movie watcher because neither of them go to movies that often, maybe a few a year, they just seem to wait the three months until it's on video. Me, I see maybe 10 - 18 movies a year on a bad movie year like last year, about 10, but I don't consider myself an enthusiast by any means. Although I do have PS3, and the Blu Ray player coupled with the fact that I have an HDTV was a big selling point for me.
Anecdotal evidence is not compelling. Especially if we assume that prices continue to drop and there is going to be increased marketing by both CE manufacturers and movie studios to promote BR. This is NOT going to occur in March. Or April. Or May. It will happen closer to XMas.
I think the time for that big push will be the trailing end of summer, after the Big blockbusters are out, and the first summer films are making there way to a video release, isn't Indy 4 one of the first/biggest this year?
how long between movie release to video release over there?
it seems to be about 2/3 months over here, sop assuming its similar over there, then that puts a June movie release into August video release time scale? yes?
I think the time for that big push will be the trailing end of summer, after the Big blockbusters are out, and the first summer films are making there way to a video release, isn't Indy 4 one of the first/biggest this year?
how long between movie release to video release over there?
it seems to be about 2/3 months over here, sop assuming its similar over there, then that puts a June movie release into August video release time scale? yes?
Just an opinion mind you, Got it!
That should be right about over here since " I Am Legend " came out in the middle of December and is being released to video next week. However really big releases like Indy 4 they tend to sit on a little while longer unless it bombs at the box office. Which isn't likely.
Same old thing as always! MS predicts that Downloads are the next big thing!
Translation : we've got a DL service that we want everyone to join so they can rent again and again. And never own anything ( you can watch it on a big screen as long as you and everyone you know have an XBox )! Just keep shelling out the bucks because everyone only rents movies right?
Guess he hasn't read my posts as to why this won't work taking over the spot held by PM.
I think it's funny how you read this stuff everywhere but they never go into the details as to how exactly it's going to replace Physical media.
As usual, you have two sides talking at each other, but neither is listening to the other's point.
Point 1: The disc rental market is effectively over. The new rental fight is between AppleTV, Xbox 360 and new versions of Tivo, Vudu etc. There is no point in driving to a rental outlet and back (with gas prices where they are) when you can start a HD download while you make popcorn.
Point 2: Discs will still be used for the Collector market, which is smaller than the rental market but still a lucrative source of income for studios. However, the Collector business was aided in the DVD era by the economies of scale created by vast numbers of rental duplications. Since this isn't going to happen with Blu-Ray, collectors will not see the kinds of bargain prices they used to.
Blu-Ray isn't dead by any means, but it will not be the overwhelming success that DVD was.
As usual, you have two sides talking at each other, but neither is listening to the other's point.
Point 1: The disc rental market is effectively over. The new rental fight is between AppleTV, Xbox 360 and new versions of Tivo, Vudu etc. There is no point in driving to a rental outlet and back (with gas prices where they are) when you can start a HD download while you make popcorn.
Point 2: Discs will still be used for the Collector market, which is smaller than the rental market but still a lucrative source of income for studios. However, the Collector business was aided in the DVD era by the economies of scale created by vast numbers of rental duplications. Since this isn't going to happen with Blu-Ray, collectors will not see the kinds of bargain prices they used to.
Blu-Ray isn't dead by any means, but it will not be the overwhelming success that DVD was.
I guess we'll have to wait about 7 years to see if your right.
A key sign will be when chains like Blockbuster and Rogers Video (here in Ontario) start demolishing their rental stores, unless they can find another way to use the retail space.
Blu-Ray isn't dead by any means, but it will not be the overwhelming success that DVD was.
I love the hell out of Blu-ray Disc, but I'm not investing heavily in it. I have about 20 titles. It's too soon to tell, but I'm afraid it will be a niche market. \
I love the hell out of Blu-ray Disc, but I'm not investing heavily in it. I have about 20 titles. It's too soon to tell, but I'm afraid it will be a niche market. \
I think many HDM supporters will not mind the niche market as long as it can be as successful as LD once was.
I'm am afraid Blu-Ray will not best even LD. Just look around among co-workers/neighbors/friends/family around you and see if the HDM traction has changed/improved in last couple of months. Only progress I can tell is that I do see new TV commercials that Blu-Ray now calls itself "Blu-Ray HiDef". Was this the progress so called fens sitters were waiting for?... At such progress rate, the HDM will be a niche of the niche.
It's still only just a hobby for me, but come on, at least try to keep the HDM alive already!.
As usual, you have two sides talking at each other, but neither is listening to the other's point.
Point 1: The disc rental market is effectively over. The new rental fight is between AppleTV, Xbox 360 and new versions of Tivo, Vudu etc. There is no point in driving to a rental outlet and back (with gas prices where they are) when you can start a HD download while you make popcorn.
Point 2: Discs will still be used for the Collector market, which is smaller than the rental market but still a lucrative source of income for studios. However, the Collector business was aided in the DVD era by the economies of scale created by vast numbers of rental duplications. Since this isn't going to happen with Blu-Ray, collectors will not see the kinds of bargain prices they used to.
Blu-Ray isn't dead by any means, but it will not be the overwhelming success that DVD was.
Frank do you have figures to back up the statement that the collectors market is smaller than the rental one?
I love the hell out of Blu-ray Disc, but I'm not investing heavily in it. I have about 20 titles. It's too soon to tell, but I'm afraid it will be a niche market. \
20 titles this early is easily what most people people would see as being heavily invested.
Ok according to you BR can do no wrong. And there's nothing that they have to do to insure success.
Nope. It seems you like putting words in other people mouths while whining when you get quoted.
I said that things ARE being done, that Sony is well aware of the need to continue to push BR BUT that these are likely going to happen LATER THIS YEAR. That you don't see much activity in MARCH is NO INDICATION THAT NO PROGRESS OR PLANNING IS BEING MADE.
Got it? Yet? Please?
Quote:
It's true the internet is a totally anonymous and I could be anyone so could you. But to be quite frank I have nothing really to hide and really am 54 soon to turn 55 on May 10th.
Believe it. Don't believe it. I don't really care!
The point is your AGE IS OF LITTLE IMPORTANCE. Got it?
Quote:
It's clear you're closed minded to anything that might be a negative slant on your pet product and won't listen to anyone else no matter what. Also you have a really smug attitude which I find just as annoying as you seem to find my emoticons. But they're there for anyone to use so I don't see what the difference is.
You have a reading comprehension problem. I had no issue with your use of an emoticon. Just with your use of "Got it?" Got it?
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There's likely a tendency for younger people like yourself to not listen to people who have more experience ( age wise and product wise ) simply because when you're young you don't like to listen to someone who might have more insight. That's ok I was that way when I was younger myself.
There is a tendency for (some) old people to think experience equates to greater insight when that experience may or may not be relevant to the topic at hand.
And to be condescending to boot. Let me clue you in buckwheat...your age means zero on a forum. Only what you write. You cannot fall back on either age or credentials because neither are verifiable AND objectively means little anyway.
Got it?
Oh and you STILL have no clue as to how old I am.
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So go ahead don't pay me any heed but if ( and that's if ) you do see a BR player at a garage sale because it got lost in the race for newer and better technology think about what I've said.
I'm sure you'll see a BR player in a garage sale someday. Just like you see DVD players today. Technology is always replaced.
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On this point : " VHS hadn't won the format war until the mid 80s and was equally well established when DVD appeared in 1996. About 10-12 years between VHS dominance and introduction of a new format. DVD is about 12 years old.
HD-DVD and BR is in the general ballpark for a replacement technology given the relative few data point to form a trend for consumer video formats. There aren't THAT many relevant similar instances in your lifetime. Got it? "
You're illustrating one of my points. The transition between VHS, Beta, vs no home media is very different. Now we have a media that is an unqualified success and is only 12 years old!
You have two specific data points for trending in the home video market. VHS to DVD and now potentially DVD to BR. Both occurred in the 10-15 timeframe.
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One transition that might be more applicable is LPs to CD. Records ( dragging a needle through a groove ) had been around ( in one form or another ) for the better part of a hundred years.
LPs (33 1/3) appeared in 1948.
Original phonograph cylinder 1880.
Replaced by the Edison "Blue Amberol" clinder in 1912 (160 rpm) - dead in 1920
Replaced by early shellac lateral cut discs - 7", 10" and 12" (10" most popular) in 1920
Replaced by vinyl records in 1930s (still 78 rpm)
Replaced by LP 33 1/3 and 45 vinyls in 1948 and 1949. (Technology developed in 1939...introduction likely delayed by WWII)
Trend: 10-15 years ignoring the one outlier likely caused by WWII.
Seems like your view of the monolithic history of records based on your superior "experience" is incorrect.
Reel-to-reel in the late 40s
Endless loop tape in 1952 and cartridge tape invented in 1954
8-Track tape in the mid 60s - sold as a dealer option by Ford in 1965
Cassette tape introduced in 1964 but 1st acknowledged music tape player in 1971 (Advent - Dolby B + CrO2 tapes) allowing HiFi and replacing 8 tracks in the '70s.
Walkman 1980 - cassette overtakes LPs in sales. Peaks in the 80s.
THEN CDs overtakes Cassetes in the 1990s. Gee...10 years.
THEN MP3 begin to dominate in the 2000s. Gee...10 years.
So...historical trends seem to support that 10-15 year change cycle where the format shifts.
1950's LPs
Mid 1960s 8-Track
1980's Cassette
1990's CDs
2000's MP3
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It was more than time for a change. CDs didn't take long to catch on although some still prefer LPs ( which I won't get into right now ). Now you want people to buy into a different format and most people are still satisfied with DVD ( picture, price etc. ). That's what has to overcome.
Old people don't drive change. You likely interact mostly with your peer group.
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And it has to be done relatively soon ( next few years ). Because I believe something else will come along or the average buyer will simply lose interest. And BR will be the LD of the 21rst century. I don't want to see that happen as I like an HD picture much more than SD.
Gee, and I've said that the rule of thumb for adoption of a new format can be as short at two XMas seasons. Depending on how you count it, Christmas 2008 is either #1 or #2. I'd say #1 since it didn't win the format war until this year.
What does this imply? It implies that March 2008 is too damned early to say that BR has high risk of ending up like LD or whining that the Blu-Ray group hasn't done anything yet.
Geez...the Digital Entertainment Group announced it would start supporting BR in consumer education, retail training, PR, etc only a week or so ago. These are the same folks that helped push DVD into the mainstream.
Ya want to give them more than a week or so to get the damn ball rolling? What are you? 54 or 4? My 3 year old has more patience.
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Also even if you don't believe it the average consumer out there that's even heard of the format war wanted nothing to do with it. Now you have a buch of people who got the shaft because they took a side and lost. And all you can say is " poor babys ".
The average consumer, if they heard ANYTHING, was "there's a format war...don't buy". THIS is why they didn't. Now they hear "BR won...its safe to buy" and hopefully this Christmas they will.
The bunch of people who got the shaft...can skip BR and cut off their own noses to spite their face. The probability that they won't buy into BR eventually approaches zero...even if they choose to do so furtively.
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Well that attitude won't sell anyone on BR players and might push them in the direction of " I don't want anything thing to do with it . I'm satisfied with my DVD collection and it looks good enough for me ".
Your peer group is not the target demographic EXCEPT as to what you'll buy for your grandkids.
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So there you are I guess there is nothing I can say that will make you understand I want BR to win but not just to be another Laser Disc.
Also you don't have to listen to me however this is an open forum and fair is fair. You're not going to keep me from speaking my mind on this subject.
And there's nothing to keep my from speaking my mind and saying that "thou protest too much" and you're spreading FUD. The probability is far higher that BR will become the next DVD than the next LD. At THIS point in time it is already more successful than LD by many metrics.
Frank do you have figures to back up the statement that the collectors market is smaller than the rental one?
I'd like to see by how much?
I don't, but judging by the floor space given to rentals over the for-sale product in outlets like Blockbuster, would that have to be the larger market? Retail floor space is really expensive.
I don't, but judging by the floor space given to rentals over the for-sale product in outlets like Blockbuster, would that have to be the larger market? Retail floor space is really expensive.
apple to floor polish!
blockbuster IS a rental business, not a retail one.
for a moment i thought you were implying a comparison between the number of miles of shelf space in rental to the number of miles of shelf space in retail, i'd be fairly confident that retail shelf space BY MILE would win.
also rental is not as big over here in comparison to retail, dont forget that america does not equal the world.
Comments
I care about them. I know others who care about them. That's what real collectors do. By your logic, why bother with extra features at all?
Oh, and watch your tongue. You're mother would be ashamed.
I've tried to think they were cool, but they aren't. I don't care for someone's commentary on the movie. I've tried to watch them, but most are crap anyways. There is rarely good extra material. I am a collector... of the movie. Extras begone!
So what? A "fact" about your opinion of someone else's opinion is a of zero value in terms of concrete information about a point. Got it?
Quantify "a lot of people". Show your sources for this number.
Repeated assertion does not make a "fact" or an opinion "right". Got it?
Also, it is clearly obvious that Paramount is not the key to the success of BR or it would have failed already. The movies will come. There is no barrier to announcing new releases closer to Christmas and the movie catalog continues to expand.
Folks that purchased into a format war clearly understood that it was very likely that one would end up the loser. If the BR studios and CE manufacturers do something nice, great. Is it required? Doubtful.
Why is a "positive" spin required for winning a format war anyway?
Ancedotal evidence is not compelling. Especially if we assume that prices continue to drop and there is going to be increased marketing by both CE manufacturers and movie studios to promote BR. This is NOT going to occur in March. Or April. Or May. It will happen closer to XMas.
Why is the future for HD any bleaker than it was pre-victory? It isn't. Got it?
That's a different position than questioning "if BR is a viable format" or suggesting it will become a niche format like LD. That's not me putting words in your mouth but a direct quote. One is FUD, the other is not. Got it?
VHS hadn't won the format war until the mid 80s and was equally well established when DVD appeared in 1996. About 10-12 years between VHS dominance and introduction of a new format. DVD is about 12 years old.
HD-DVD and BR is in the general ballpark for a replacement technology given the relative few data point to form a trend for consumer video formats. There aren't THAT many relevant similar instances in your lifetime. Got it?
It has been argued by some folks that the buying public has a two christmas window for accepting new technology (ignoring the multi-year VHS vs Beta war where VHS eventually gained dominance) and even if you accept that pessimistic view BR has at LEAST one XMas more in which to gain acceptance and possibly two depending on if you count this as the first XMas in the window (post format war). Bill Hunt might have even mentioned that (although I haven't hunted for a reference) since you seem to accept his word as law.
Oh, and just because you're older does not give you any greater insight into technology. There is likely a negative correlation between technology prognostication and age. Got it?
I could claim to be 25, 45 or 65 vs your 55 and you wouldn't know the reality and frankly it makes zero difference. Got it?
And saying "Got it?" even with a lame smiley is still annoying. Got it?
It's like saying "I think you're too stupid to get it so I'm going to ask. Oh just kidding...here's a smiley
I read what you write and even read what you link. That I disagree doesn't mean I don't get it. It means I disagree. Got it?
Ok according to you BR can do no wrong. And there's nothing that they have to do to insure success.
It's true the internet is a totally anonymous and I could be anyone so could you. But to be quite frank I have nothing really to hide and really am 54 soon to turn 55 on May 10th.
Believe it. Don't believe it. I don't really care!
It's clear you're closed minded to anything that might be a negative slant on your pet product and won't listen to anyone else no matter what. Also you have a really smug attitude which I find just as annoying as you seem to find my emoticons. But they're there for anyone to use so I don't see what the difference is.
There's likely a tendency for younger people like yourself to not listen to people who have more experience ( age wise and product wise ) simply because when you're young you don't like to listen to someone who might have more insight. That's ok I was that way when I was younger myself.
So go ahead don't pay me any heed but if ( and that's if ) you do see a BR player at a garage sale because it got lost in the race for newer and better technology think about what I've said.
On this point : " VHS hadn't won the format war until the mid 80s and was equally well established when DVD appeared in 1996. About 10-12 years between VHS dominance and introduction of a new format. DVD is about 12 years old.
HD-DVD and BR is in the general ballpark for a replacement technology given the relative few data point to form a trend for consumer video formats. There aren't THAT many relevant similar instances in your lifetime. Got it? "
You're illustrating one of my points. The transition between VHS, Beta, vs no home media is very different. Now we have a media that is an unqualified success and is only 12 years old! One transition that might be more applicable is LPs to CD. Records ( dragging a needle through a groove ) had been around ( in one form or another ) for the better part of a hundred years. It was more than time for a change. CDs didn't take long to catch on although some still prefer LPs ( which I won't get into right now ). Now you want people to buy into a different format and most people are still satisfied with DVD ( picture, price etc. ). That's what has to overcome. And it has to be done relatively soon ( next few years ). Because I believe something else will come along or the average buyer will simply lose interest. And BR will be the LD of the 21rst century. I don't want to see that happen as I like an HD picture much more than SD.
Also even if you don't believe it the average consumer out there that's even heard of the format war wanted nothing to do with it. Now you have a buch of people who got the shaft because they took a side and lost. And all you can say is " poor babys ". Well that attitude won't sell anyone on BR players and might push them in the direction of " I don't want anything thing to do with it . I'm satisfied with my DVD collection and it looks good enough for me ".
So there you are I guess there is nothing I can say that will make you understand I want BR to win but not just to be another Laser Disc.
Also you don't have to listen to me however this is an open forum and fair is fair. You're not going to keep me from speaking my mind on this subject.
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6540692.html
Anecdotal evidence is not compelling. Especially if we assume that prices continue to drop and there is going to be increased marketing by both CE manufacturers and movie studios to promote BR. This is NOT going to occur in March. Or April. Or May. It will happen closer to XMas.
I think the time for that big push will be the trailing end of summer, after the Big blockbusters are out, and the first summer films are making there way to a video release, isn't Indy 4 one of the first/biggest this year?
how long between movie release to video release over there?
it seems to be about 2/3 months over here, sop assuming its similar over there, then that puts a June movie release into August video release time scale? yes?
Just an opinion mind you, Got it!
I think the time for that big push will be the trailing end of summer, after the Big blockbusters are out, and the first summer films are making there way to a video release, isn't Indy 4 one of the first/biggest this year?
how long between movie release to video release over there?
it seems to be about 2/3 months over here, sop assuming its similar over there, then that puts a June movie release into August video release time scale? yes?
Just an opinion mind you, Got it!
That should be right about over here since " I Am Legend " came out in the middle of December and is being released to video next week. However really big releases like Indy 4 they tend to sit on a little while longer unless it bombs at the box office. Which isn't likely.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=34141
M$ say BD will fail, so thats just assured its success then.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=34141
Same old thing as always! MS predicts that Downloads are the next big thing!
Translation : we've got a DL service that we want everyone to join so they can rent again and again. And never own anything ( you can watch it on a big screen as long as you and everyone you know have an XBox )! Just keep shelling out the bucks because everyone only rents movies right?
Guess he hasn't read my posts as to why this won't work taking over the spot held by PM.
I think it's funny how you read this stuff everywhere but they never go into the details as to how exactly it's going to replace Physical media.
That would raise some questions.
M$ say BD will fail, so thats just assured its success then.
They said pretty much the same thing about the mouse before Apple started using one. Intelligent predictions are not their strong suit.
Point 1: The disc rental market is effectively over. The new rental fight is between AppleTV, Xbox 360 and new versions of Tivo, Vudu etc. There is no point in driving to a rental outlet and back (with gas prices where they are) when you can start a HD download while you make popcorn.
Point 2: Discs will still be used for the Collector market, which is smaller than the rental market but still a lucrative source of income for studios. However, the Collector business was aided in the DVD era by the economies of scale created by vast numbers of rental duplications. Since this isn't going to happen with Blu-Ray, collectors will not see the kinds of bargain prices they used to.
Blu-Ray isn't dead by any means, but it will not be the overwhelming success that DVD was.
As usual, you have two sides talking at each other, but neither is listening to the other's point.
Point 1: The disc rental market is effectively over. The new rental fight is between AppleTV, Xbox 360 and new versions of Tivo, Vudu etc. There is no point in driving to a rental outlet and back (with gas prices where they are) when you can start a HD download while you make popcorn.
Point 2: Discs will still be used for the Collector market, which is smaller than the rental market but still a lucrative source of income for studios. However, the Collector business was aided in the DVD era by the economies of scale created by vast numbers of rental duplications. Since this isn't going to happen with Blu-Ray, collectors will not see the kinds of bargain prices they used to.
Blu-Ray isn't dead by any means, but it will not be the overwhelming success that DVD was.
I guess we'll have to wait about 7 years to see if your right.
A key sign will be when chains like Blockbuster and Rogers Video (here in Ontario) start demolishing their rental stores, unless they can find another way to use the retail space.
Blu-Ray isn't dead by any means, but it will not be the overwhelming success that DVD was.
I love the hell out of Blu-ray Disc, but I'm not investing heavily in it. I have about 20 titles. It's too soon to tell, but I'm afraid it will be a niche market.
I love the hell out of Blu-ray Disc, but I'm not investing heavily in it. I have about 20 titles. It's too soon to tell, but I'm afraid it will be a niche market.
I think many HDM supporters will not mind the niche market as long as it can be as successful as LD once was.
I'm am afraid Blu-Ray will not best even LD. Just look around among co-workers/neighbors/friends/family around you and see if the HDM traction has changed/improved in last couple of months. Only progress I can tell is that I do see new TV commercials that Blu-Ray now calls itself "Blu-Ray HiDef". Was this the progress so called fens sitters were waiting for?... At such progress rate, the HDM will be a niche of the niche.
It's still only just a hobby for me, but come on, at least try to keep the HDM alive already!.
As usual, you have two sides talking at each other, but neither is listening to the other's point.
Point 1: The disc rental market is effectively over. The new rental fight is between AppleTV, Xbox 360 and new versions of Tivo, Vudu etc. There is no point in driving to a rental outlet and back (with gas prices where they are) when you can start a HD download while you make popcorn.
Point 2: Discs will still be used for the Collector market, which is smaller than the rental market but still a lucrative source of income for studios. However, the Collector business was aided in the DVD era by the economies of scale created by vast numbers of rental duplications. Since this isn't going to happen with Blu-Ray, collectors will not see the kinds of bargain prices they used to.
Blu-Ray isn't dead by any means, but it will not be the overwhelming success that DVD was.
Frank do you have figures to back up the statement that the collectors market is smaller than the rental one?
I'd like to see by how much?
I love the hell out of Blu-ray Disc, but I'm not investing heavily in it. I have about 20 titles. It's too soon to tell, but I'm afraid it will be a niche market.
20 titles this early is easily what most people people would see as being heavily invested.
Ok according to you BR can do no wrong. And there's nothing that they have to do to insure success.
Nope. It seems you like putting words in other people mouths while whining when you get quoted.
I said that things ARE being done, that Sony is well aware of the need to continue to push BR BUT that these are likely going to happen LATER THIS YEAR. That you don't see much activity in MARCH is NO INDICATION THAT NO PROGRESS OR PLANNING IS BEING MADE.
Got it? Yet? Please?
It's true the internet is a totally anonymous and I could be anyone so could you. But to be quite frank I have nothing really to hide and really am 54 soon to turn 55 on May 10th.
Believe it. Don't believe it. I don't really care!
The point is your AGE IS OF LITTLE IMPORTANCE. Got it?
It's clear you're closed minded to anything that might be a negative slant on your pet product and won't listen to anyone else no matter what. Also you have a really smug attitude which I find just as annoying as you seem to find my emoticons. But they're there for anyone to use so I don't see what the difference is.
You have a reading comprehension problem. I had no issue with your use of an emoticon. Just with your use of "Got it?" Got it?
There's likely a tendency for younger people like yourself to not listen to people who have more experience ( age wise and product wise ) simply because when you're young you don't like to listen to someone who might have more insight. That's ok I was that way when I was younger myself.
There is a tendency for (some) old people to think experience equates to greater insight when that experience may or may not be relevant to the topic at hand.
And to be condescending to boot. Let me clue you in buckwheat...your age means zero on a forum. Only what you write. You cannot fall back on either age or credentials because neither are verifiable AND objectively means little anyway.
Got it?
Oh and you STILL have no clue as to how old I am.
So go ahead don't pay me any heed but if ( and that's if ) you do see a BR player at a garage sale because it got lost in the race for newer and better technology think about what I've said.
I'm sure you'll see a BR player in a garage sale someday. Just like you see DVD players today. Technology is always replaced.
On this point : " VHS hadn't won the format war until the mid 80s and was equally well established when DVD appeared in 1996. About 10-12 years between VHS dominance and introduction of a new format. DVD is about 12 years old.
HD-DVD and BR is in the general ballpark for a replacement technology given the relative few data point to form a trend for consumer video formats. There aren't THAT many relevant similar instances in your lifetime. Got it? "
You're illustrating one of my points. The transition between VHS, Beta, vs no home media is very different. Now we have a media that is an unqualified success and is only 12 years old!
You have two specific data points for trending in the home video market. VHS to DVD and now potentially DVD to BR. Both occurred in the 10-15 timeframe.
One transition that might be more applicable is LPs to CD. Records ( dragging a needle through a groove ) had been around ( in one form or another ) for the better part of a hundred years.
LPs (33 1/3) appeared in 1948.
Original phonograph cylinder 1880.
Replaced by the Edison "Blue Amberol" clinder in 1912 (160 rpm) - dead in 1920
Replaced by early shellac lateral cut discs - 7", 10" and 12" (10" most popular) in 1920
Replaced by vinyl records in 1930s (still 78 rpm)
Replaced by LP 33 1/3 and 45 vinyls in 1948 and 1949. (Technology developed in 1939...introduction likely delayed by WWII)
Trend: 10-15 years ignoring the one outlier likely caused by WWII.
Seems like your view of the monolithic history of records based on your superior "experience" is incorrect.
Reel-to-reel in the late 40s
Endless loop tape in 1952 and cartridge tape invented in 1954
8-Track tape in the mid 60s - sold as a dealer option by Ford in 1965
Cassette tape introduced in 1964 but 1st acknowledged music tape player in 1971 (Advent - Dolby B + CrO2 tapes) allowing HiFi and replacing 8 tracks in the '70s.
Walkman 1980 - cassette overtakes LPs in sales. Peaks in the 80s.
THEN CDs overtakes Cassetes in the 1990s. Gee...10 years.
THEN MP3 begin to dominate in the 2000s. Gee...10 years.
So...historical trends seem to support that 10-15 year change cycle where the format shifts.
1950's LPs
Mid 1960s 8-Track
1980's Cassette
1990's CDs
2000's MP3
It was more than time for a change. CDs didn't take long to catch on although some still prefer LPs ( which I won't get into right now ). Now you want people to buy into a different format and most people are still satisfied with DVD ( picture, price etc. ). That's what has to overcome.
Old people don't drive change. You likely interact mostly with your peer group.
And it has to be done relatively soon ( next few years ). Because I believe something else will come along or the average buyer will simply lose interest. And BR will be the LD of the 21rst century. I don't want to see that happen as I like an HD picture much more than SD.
Gee, and I've said that the rule of thumb for adoption of a new format can be as short at two XMas seasons. Depending on how you count it, Christmas 2008 is either #1 or #2. I'd say #1 since it didn't win the format war until this year.
What does this imply? It implies that March 2008 is too damned early to say that BR has high risk of ending up like LD or whining that the Blu-Ray group hasn't done anything yet.
Geez...the Digital Entertainment Group announced it would start supporting BR in consumer education, retail training, PR, etc only a week or so ago. These are the same folks that helped push DVD into the mainstream.
Ya want to give them more than a week or so to get the damn ball rolling? What are you? 54 or 4? My 3 year old has more patience.
Also even if you don't believe it the average consumer out there that's even heard of the format war wanted nothing to do with it. Now you have a buch of people who got the shaft because they took a side and lost. And all you can say is " poor babys ".
The average consumer, if they heard ANYTHING, was "there's a format war...don't buy". THIS is why they didn't. Now they hear "BR won...its safe to buy" and hopefully this Christmas they will.
The bunch of people who got the shaft...can skip BR and cut off their own noses to spite their face. The probability that they won't buy into BR eventually approaches zero...even if they choose to do so furtively.
Well that attitude won't sell anyone on BR players and might push them in the direction of " I don't want anything thing to do with it . I'm satisfied with my DVD collection and it looks good enough for me ".
Your peer group is not the target demographic EXCEPT as to what you'll buy for your grandkids.
So there you are I guess there is nothing I can say that will make you understand I want BR to win but not just to be another Laser Disc.
Also you don't have to listen to me however this is an open forum and fair is fair. You're not going to keep me from speaking my mind on this subject.
And there's nothing to keep my from speaking my mind and saying that "thou protest too much" and you're spreading FUD. The probability is far higher that BR will become the next DVD than the next LD. At THIS point in time it is already more successful than LD by many metrics.
Got it? Good.
Frank do you have figures to back up the statement that the collectors market is smaller than the rental one?
I'd like to see by how much?
I don't, but judging by the floor space given to rentals over the for-sale product in outlets like Blockbuster, would that have to be the larger market? Retail floor space is really expensive.
I don't, but judging by the floor space given to rentals over the for-sale product in outlets like Blockbuster, would that have to be the larger market? Retail floor space is really expensive.
apple to floor polish!
blockbuster IS a rental business, not a retail one.
for a moment i thought you were implying a comparison between the number of miles of shelf space in rental to the number of miles of shelf space in retail, i'd be fairly confident that retail shelf space BY MILE would win.
also rental is not as big over here in comparison to retail, dont forget that america does not equal the world.
{got it}