The fact that there are going to be a 100 Android tablet releases this year only makes Apple's life easier. Real competition will not come from 100 different tablets, none of which will ever get any significant marketshare individually, real competition will come from a single tablet that offers real and recognizable advantages over the iPad. Right now, none of the Android tablets seem to have anything going against the iPad except a spec sheet, and even that gap will probably be closed far enough to be irrelevant tomorrow.
If anything, 100 Android tablets hitting the market will fragment Honeycomb just like it fragmented Android on smartphones, up to the point that no single, stabilized hardware/software spec will ever gain critical mass to make it interesting to AAA developers to invest millions into something like the Rage or Unreal engine. There will be expensive high-end Android tablets like the Xoom or the Samsung thing, there will be cheap low-quality Android tablets from the likes of Archos or MSI, there will be dual-core ARM based ones, Rockchip x86 based ones, Oak Trail based x86 ones, some with a single-core PowerVR GPU, some with a dual-core one, some with Nvidia Tegra2 graphics, some with Intel Integrated graphics, some will get updated beyond 3.0, some wont, some will have better resolution than the iPad, some will have worse, 7", 8", 9", 10", and so on, and so forth. Just because there will be so much variation, the people buying these Android tablets will again not be able to enjoy any kind of application that really needs to get the most out of the hardware it is running, since every application will again be programmed to the lowest common denominator. Not really a problem for many applications, but definitely a problem for high-performance games, anything graphics related or anything that requires huge investments to develop.
Regarding tomorrow's announcement, I have a funny feeling they may pull a Mac Mini on us, and up the floor price by $100.
I doubt it, Apple doesn't give two hoots about the Mac Mini. They have it tucked away in a corner in my local AppleStore and I haven't seen it in any of my local Mac retailers. I wouldn't be surprised if they finally axed it this year.
"We estimate there are well over one hundred tablets coming to market around the world this year," White said. "Assuming a new iPad is unveiled at this event, we believe Apple must make a convincing case for why the iPad 2 is better than the plethora of competitors coming to market, while at the same time persuading iPad 1 buyers to upgrade to iPad 2."
He might be kidding! It's quite the opposite ? all these newcomers have to prove that they worth at least one positive review in a whole product lifetime before comparing to iPad.
Unless Apple takes the restrictions off developers, there's going to be a lot of love for Android tablets, just like there is for Android phones. Apple will probably own more than half the market for quite a while, but the market is no longer cornered. Which is a good thing for all customers.
More developers have made more money, more quickly on ios than any other platform.
Considering that the iPad 1 is better than most of the "plethora" of products coming out this year, I think they could put a sticker on that one that said 2 and be fine. Apple has nothing to worry about here.
Maybe, but that's a very dangerous approach, some of these new tablets represent serious competition. Apple cannot afford to rest on its laurels.
Exactly. Is this guy stoned? Yes there are hundreds of competing tablets but guess what? They're all behind even the CURRENT iPad! This is not "critical." In fact, Apple could wait till Christmas to unveil a new iPad and still hold the market. Is it a next-step? Of course. Is it good for them to keep their edge? Yes. But to say, "Oh...Apple better watch out for Brand-X's new tablet!" I ask, "Who's!?" Xoom=overpriced, and pretty-much everyone is tied to a communications company thus using subsidizing as a means of competing. This market is Apple's to lose because nobody is even within sight of them at the moment. In NASCAR terms, they're so far ahead, they could take a 10 minute pit time and win this race.
iPad 1 users are not likely to upgrade to iPad 2. I wouldn't. Apple makes a quality product that functions well for a long time. Heck, I still have the original iPhone - I do plan to replace it with an iPhone 5 though.
No, the most important thing is to have a good showing for potential new buyers for the iPad 2. Apple needs to understand that hardware spec DOES matter, and that unlike Windows, Android does NOT suck. Android might not have all the little refinements of iOS or as robust an ecosystem, but Honeycomb makes huge strides for Android, and the hardware coming out, especially those with Tegra 2 processor are serious, and I mean serious competition.
Apple really needs to watch their back this time. This is not like the iPhone where it's taken over 3 years for the others to catch up. Viable competition for iPad is here now.
The iPad is to tablets what the Walkman was to portable tape players back in the day .... there is a great benefit to establishing a new market leaving all else seeming to be poor imitations. Not to mention all the other things such as eco systems, OS and quality. Hopefully Apple will keep well ahead and also establish what comes next after tablets unlike Sony and their Walkman.
I'm surprised no one has mentioned marketing. The people who follow web sites such as this one represent a tiny portion of the potential market. Most people get their information about consumer tech devices from television, newspapers/magazines and word of mouth from their friends. The IPad type device is still new to most people and IPad competitors can take some of the market with aggressive television advertising. Apple can't rest, it's not just neccessary to make great products, you must aggressively market to sell beyond the tech crowd.
To be fair, he's right in what he says. It's just that it's stating the obvious but it's his job to analyse, even when the analysis is easy. He didn't ask to be quoted in our bear pit lol
As is typical, the new iPad will be great. You've heard the rumors. But the professional analysts will be disappointed that it didn't include this and that, and that iPad2 will be in trouble...
Then worldwide sales will skyrocket (will production and supplies be able to keep-up?) and the AAPL stock will approach 400!
This comes down to a tradeoff between market share and profit margin. If iPad2 has 1GB ram, dual-core CPU/GPU, an improved screen (not retina, just better in some ways), and weight 1lb or so, and still keep the 16GB model at $499, it'll do well this year, nobody else can match this. If it only has 512MB ram, slower GPU, same screen, and >1.25lb weight, then it won't.
"Apple's iPad 2 unveiling viewed as 'crucial' to stay ahead of competition"
Right now, essentially there IS no competition. At least, none that can be taken seriously. Apple has, what, 80% of this market? With such a lead, Apple's not concerned with 'staying ahead' of anyone. What Apple is trying to do is FORESTALL competition. That is - to keep it from getting a solid foothold in the 'tablet' market niche Apple has created.
Right now, Apple's competitors lack both its resources and determination. That means they are struggling to hit the price/performance target that Apple has set with its initial iPad offering. To forestall competition, then, Apple's strategy is to keep moving the target. This should confuse and frustrate competitors who are, again, struggling to deliver products aimed at the CURRENT target.
With that understanding: Yes, the iPad 2 is crucial in FORESTALLING Apple's competition.
Actually, there is competition. The Galaxy Tab has been out for a while, and even though it's pretty lame, it still competes, and there have been plenty of confused consumers, and some suckers, who are buying it. The real competition is also shipping now, and the biggest is the Moto Xoom. It is a serious contender, it doesn't suck, and it's only a tiny bit more expensive. It also has the hardware chops to put the current iPad to shame - good thing iPad 2 is imminent.
It would be ideal for Apple to move the target and "forestall" their competition, but I think that's a bit 'wishful thinking'. Apple executes well, but not that well. Apple does a good job of this at first, such as with the initial intro of the Mac, the 1st Powerbook, the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad, catching the competition off guard, but over a little time, these products only remain marginally better than the competition, and Apple does little to move the target with an existing product.
Absolutely right. See how Android phones grow when Apple relaxed by introducing iPhone 3GS as an upgrade of 3G.
Android Xoom is still expensive but when time comes, more and more Android tablets with different prices targeted for different customers will eat Apple's share
Android phones sales growth happened because manufacturers started making good Android phones and giving Android their full attention. Low price points and buy one get one offers also helped snag people not normally interested in the more expensive smartphones.
The iPhone 3GS had phenomenal sales, Android got its market share elsewhere.
Edit: And for the record. Nothing had better specs than the 3GS until a good 6 months after it was launched. Apple's iOS devices are always top notch specs wise.
As is typical, the new iPad will be great. You've heard the rumors. But the professional analysts will be disappointed that it didn't include this and that, and that iPad2 will be in trouble...
Then worldwide sales will skyrocket (will production and supplies be able to keep-up?) and the AAPL stock will approach 400!
If everything goes as usual AAPL will rise the day before and drop on the day of the launch. Then, as you say, climb ever higher over time.
Amen to that. What kind of twisted logic brings analysts to portray Apple as on the brink of meltdown unless they somehow "prove" their upcoming IPad will be better than vaporware/half baked concepts that will for the most part never even make it to market?
Last time I checked I still have to see a competing tablet that delivers HALF AS GOOD an experience as the Ipad1, let alone the Ipad2, Dear analyst Sir. Maybe before pathetically trying to create a potential disaster scenario for Apple out of thin air you could actually evaluate products...
When any non Apple tablet actually matches the Ipad1, let's see then how far ahead Apple will already be Ipad3 at least (spoken like an analyst....)
That's a good point, but keep in mind that the vast majority of consumers truly aren't all that smart. They do no research, and very little hands-on. If a big-box retail sales person waves a shiny new object in their face and tells them it will solve 'world hunger', they will buy it. Most people don't understand or care about a superior product. The sea of Windows PCs shows this is true. Apple has to execute spectacularly with each new model, and they constantly have to stay in people's faces (marketing) to maintain their lead. The better product helps, but herding the sheeple comes first if you are to be successful.
Absolutely right. See how Android phones grow when Apple relaxed by introducing iPhone 3GS as an upgrade of 3G.
Android Xoom is still expensive but when time comes, more and more Android tablets with different prices targeted for different customers will eat Apple's share
Android hasn?t hurt Apple one bit. Android?s growth has only affected Microsoft, HP, and RIM.
Comments
If anything, 100 Android tablets hitting the market will fragment Honeycomb just like it fragmented Android on smartphones, up to the point that no single, stabilized hardware/software spec will ever gain critical mass to make it interesting to AAA developers to invest millions into something like the Rage or Unreal engine. There will be expensive high-end Android tablets like the Xoom or the Samsung thing, there will be cheap low-quality Android tablets from the likes of Archos or MSI, there will be dual-core ARM based ones, Rockchip x86 based ones, Oak Trail based x86 ones, some with a single-core PowerVR GPU, some with a dual-core one, some with Nvidia Tegra2 graphics, some with Intel Integrated graphics, some will get updated beyond 3.0, some wont, some will have better resolution than the iPad, some will have worse, 7", 8", 9", 10", and so on, and so forth. Just because there will be so much variation, the people buying these Android tablets will again not be able to enjoy any kind of application that really needs to get the most out of the hardware it is running, since every application will again be programmed to the lowest common denominator. Not really a problem for many applications, but definitely a problem for high-performance games, anything graphics related or anything that requires huge investments to develop.
"Apple's iPad 2 unveiling viewed as 'crucial' to stay ahead of competition"
You don't wait until the competition has caught up to "stay ahead" of them. His point is not only valid, but so obvious anyone could be doing his job.
Regarding tomorrow's announcement, I have a funny feeling they may pull a Mac Mini on us, and up the floor price by $100.
I doubt it, Apple doesn't give two hoots about the Mac Mini. They have it tucked away in a corner in my local AppleStore and I haven't seen it in any of my local Mac retailers. I wouldn't be surprised if they finally axed it this year.
"We estimate there are well over one hundred tablets coming to market around the world this year," White said. "Assuming a new iPad is unveiled at this event, we believe Apple must make a convincing case for why the iPad 2 is better than the plethora of competitors coming to market, while at the same time persuading iPad 1 buyers to upgrade to iPad 2."
He might be kidding! It's quite the opposite ? all these newcomers have to prove that they worth at least one positive review in a whole product lifetime before comparing to iPad.
Unless Apple takes the restrictions off developers, there's going to be a lot of love for Android tablets, just like there is for Android phones. Apple will probably own more than half the market for quite a while, but the market is no longer cornered. Which is a good thing for all customers.
More developers have made more money, more quickly on ios than any other platform.
Considering that the iPad 1 is better than most of the "plethora" of products coming out this year, I think they could put a sticker on that one that said 2 and be fine. Apple has nothing to worry about here.
Maybe, but that's a very dangerous approach, some of these new tablets represent serious competition. Apple cannot afford to rest on its laurels.
And the competition is?
Exactly. Is this guy stoned? Yes there are hundreds of competing tablets but guess what? They're all behind even the CURRENT iPad! This is not "critical." In fact, Apple could wait till Christmas to unveil a new iPad and still hold the market. Is it a next-step? Of course. Is it good for them to keep their edge? Yes. But to say, "Oh...Apple better watch out for Brand-X's new tablet!" I ask, "Who's!?" Xoom=overpriced, and pretty-much everyone is tied to a communications company thus using subsidizing as a means of competing. This market is Apple's to lose because nobody is even within sight of them at the moment. In NASCAR terms, they're so far ahead, they could take a 10 minute pit time and win this race.
No, the most important thing is to have a good showing for potential new buyers for the iPad 2. Apple needs to understand that hardware spec DOES matter, and that unlike Windows, Android does NOT suck. Android might not have all the little refinements of iOS or as robust an ecosystem, but Honeycomb makes huge strides for Android, and the hardware coming out, especially those with Tegra 2 processor are serious, and I mean serious competition.
Apple really needs to watch their back this time. This is not like the iPhone where it's taken over 3 years for the others to catch up. Viable competition for iPad is here now.
To be fair, he's right in what he says. It's just that it's stating the obvious but it's his job to analyse, even when the analysis is easy. He didn't ask to be quoted in our bear pit lol
As is typical, the new iPad will be great. You've heard the rumors. But the professional analysts will be disappointed that it didn't include this and that, and that iPad2 will be in trouble...
Then worldwide sales will skyrocket (will production and supplies be able to keep-up?) and the AAPL stock will approach 400!
iPad 1 users are not likely to upgrade to iPad 2.
A ton of guys will be passing iPad -1s to their kids and wives and buying version 2. Just watch.
"Apple's iPad 2 unveiling viewed as 'crucial' to stay ahead of competition"
Right now, essentially there IS no competition. At least, none that can be taken seriously. Apple has, what, 80% of this market? With such a lead, Apple's not concerned with 'staying ahead' of anyone. What Apple is trying to do is FORESTALL competition. That is - to keep it from getting a solid foothold in the 'tablet' market niche Apple has created.
Right now, Apple's competitors lack both its resources and determination. That means they are struggling to hit the price/performance target that Apple has set with its initial iPad offering. To forestall competition, then, Apple's strategy is to keep moving the target. This should confuse and frustrate competitors who are, again, struggling to deliver products aimed at the CURRENT target.
With that understanding: Yes, the iPad 2 is crucial in FORESTALLING Apple's competition.
Actually, there is competition. The Galaxy Tab has been out for a while, and even though it's pretty lame, it still competes, and there have been plenty of confused consumers, and some suckers, who are buying it. The real competition is also shipping now, and the biggest is the Moto Xoom. It is a serious contender, it doesn't suck, and it's only a tiny bit more expensive. It also has the hardware chops to put the current iPad to shame - good thing iPad 2 is imminent.
It would be ideal for Apple to move the target and "forestall" their competition, but I think that's a bit 'wishful thinking'. Apple executes well, but not that well. Apple does a good job of this at first, such as with the initial intro of the Mac, the 1st Powerbook, the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad, catching the competition off guard, but over a little time, these products only remain marginally better than the competition, and Apple does little to move the target with an existing product.
Absolutely right. See how Android phones grow when Apple relaxed by introducing iPhone 3GS as an upgrade of 3G.
Android Xoom is still expensive but when time comes, more and more Android tablets with different prices targeted for different customers will eat Apple's share
Android phones sales growth happened because manufacturers started making good Android phones and giving Android their full attention. Low price points and buy one get one offers also helped snag people not normally interested in the more expensive smartphones.
The iPhone 3GS had phenomenal sales, Android got its market share elsewhere.
Edit: And for the record. Nothing had better specs than the 3GS until a good 6 months after it was launched. Apple's iOS devices are always top notch specs wise.
As is typical, the new iPad will be great. You've heard the rumors. But the professional analysts will be disappointed that it didn't include this and that, and that iPad2 will be in trouble...
Then worldwide sales will skyrocket (will production and supplies be able to keep-up?) and the AAPL stock will approach 400!
If everything goes as usual AAPL will rise the day before and drop on the day of the launch. Then, as you say, climb ever higher over time.
Partial quote:
A ton of guys will be passing iPad -1s to their kids and wives and buying version 2. Just watch.
Okay, I'll give you that. That's something I could see myself doing as well.
Amen to that. What kind of twisted logic brings analysts to portray Apple as on the brink of meltdown unless they somehow "prove" their upcoming IPad will be better than vaporware/half baked concepts that will for the most part never even make it to market?
Last time I checked I still have to see a competing tablet that delivers HALF AS GOOD an experience as the Ipad1, let alone the Ipad2, Dear analyst Sir. Maybe before pathetically trying to create a potential disaster scenario for Apple out of thin air you could actually evaluate products...
When any non Apple tablet actually matches the Ipad1, let's see then how far ahead Apple will already be
That's a good point, but keep in mind that the vast majority of consumers truly aren't all that smart. They do no research, and very little hands-on. If a big-box retail sales person waves a shiny new object in their face and tells them it will solve 'world hunger', they will buy it. Most people don't understand or care about a superior product. The sea of Windows PCs shows this is true. Apple has to execute spectacularly with each new model, and they constantly have to stay in people's faces (marketing) to maintain their lead. The better product helps, but herding the sheeple comes first if you are to be successful.
Absolutely right. See how Android phones grow when Apple relaxed by introducing iPhone 3GS as an upgrade of 3G.
Android Xoom is still expensive but when time comes, more and more Android tablets with different prices targeted for different customers will eat Apple's share
Android hasn?t hurt Apple one bit. Android?s growth has only affected Microsoft, HP, and RIM.