Apple is clueless WRT building low-cost devices. Steve has said so many times. That is why they cannot compete in the low-cost computer segment or the low-cost phone segment.
Nonsense. They dominate mp3 players. And no manufacturer can compete with the iPad except Amazon. That's just one model.
Let me repeat what I keep having to say. The android tablet market is dead - that's all Kindle. Only Apple can compete.
Will the next iPhone ship before these new Kindles? AT&T says my eligible date to avoid the $250 early upgrade fee isn't until mid November so it looks like I'll be waiting until then to buy it.
That's an interesting question!
I would guess yes -- for these reasons:
1) Next week announce
2) Some rumors of realignment of part numbers
3) No update to the the iOS beta since August 31
4) The recent iCloud enema
5) Rumors of iOS voice activation
I suspect that Apple will announce the new iPhone on October 4, available November 4 (Friday).
They will announce iOS 5 GM for developers (with any new features) available immediately.
iOS 5 can be made available to the Public anytime between Oct 4 and Dec 4.
I suspect that they might do a staggered release of iOS 5 and/or iCloud before the iPhone 5 -- so the can control the download activity and the anticipated load on their iCloud Servers.
One of the disadvantages of the 7" form factor is when used in landscape mode for surfing or typing -- there is very little room above the onscreen kb to display a WP document, spreadsheet, web page or web form...
The PlayBook, which has the same format as the Fire, demoed typing a WP document where 4 lines of small text were visible above the KB.
If they were to use, say, a 4:3 vs the 16:9 -- then the kb would be too narrow to type comfortably.
You can always go to portrait mode to gain more screen real estate for the document, but then, the kb is only suitable for 1-finger or thumb typing.
All in all, the iPad form factor does a better job of satisfying most use cases.
I totally agree with this. 16:9 is not an optimal ratio for activities other than watching movies.
Amazon has just put a nail in the coffin of all other tablet manufacturers, made almost no difference to Apple at all, and helped shift sales from traditional computers to tablets.
Obviously, the device is compared to the iPad here because the banner at the top of this page has "Apple" in the name. The real product this goes head to head with is Nook. I have the latest e-ink Nook and it's awesome. I mainly have it because 1. The original Nook had features that suit me better than the original Kindle, and 2. it sells at brick and mortar stores so you can easily swing by to touch it in person to see how it works (I did so, ironically on my way to the Apple store in my mall). Since I started with Nook, I went with the second gen touch. I can't imagine that the Kindle touch could be significantly better, but it sells for $40 dollars less. In the war between Amazon and B&N, it seems being the first to release a product may not always be best.
B&N had a color reader-tablet like device first, but it sells for $50 more (also with a similar form factor). The fire appears to be a far superior color reader than the Nook Color because of Amazon Prime, and it costs less. I haven't used any kindle to see what the interface is like, but the touch e-ink they sell combined with the greater media and what seems to be a superior device in the fire are the kind of things that could seriously put Barnes and Noble in danger of going out of business, if their brick and mortar experience for people who want traditional printed books isn't enough to offset Amazon pulling ahead in the e-reader department. B&N better have something significant waiting in the wings to roll out soon, or I think they could be in serious jeopardy.
One of the great marketing realities is that company's need to be willing to "eat their own children" (products).
The posters who said the Fire will have an impact are correct -- it competes for the "tablet-is-easier-to-use-than-my-PC" space in the home. Once Amazon's movies, apps get entrenched then that household will be more likely to follow the upgrade to more expensive Amazon (modified Android) products as long as their app/media investments are preserved.
The number of households who want multiple, unrelated, tablet families with a different UX are a
NANO-segment of buyers. There is really only one opening in households for a "tablet-is-easier-to-use-than-my-PC" device.
Apple would do themselves a great favor by finding a way to get very, very close to the price point of an Amazon Fire in order to reduce intrusion into the iPad's primary market space. Find it, build it, iCloud it, and then give them a reason to move up to a faster, better, more expensive iPad (as the first one gets handed to someone else in the household).
The general (non-tech) media will establish the market position that it's an alternative to the low end iPads before today is over. Just look at the headlines from Fox and MSNBC already.
I've been wrong before, but almost never about marketing.
That's an interesting question. In our house we have 6 iPads 3 iPad 1s and 3 iPad 2s. Two of the 3 kids have iPad 1s. the oldest kid has an iPad 2 as do the 2 adults.
The iPad 1 are perfectly adequate for most uses: reading, homework, drill and practice, movies, games.
In fact, all but a handful of the 702 apps we have purchased (including iPhone apps) will run on the iPad 1.
Apple is currently selling refurb WiFi iPad 1s for $299.
I wonder If Apple were to Reintroduce the iPad 1 WiFi as a high-volume, lower-cost model alongside the iPad 2. I suspect they could sell it for, say, $249 and include some iCloud services and iTunes Store apps and content.
I suspect that, with Apple's economies of scale, older technology, development costs already recovered, etc... they could make a respectable profit at $249.
They named it Fire because that's how your fingers feel after being sanded down to use the 7" screen.
Actually I get what they're doing. Content-consumption. Less creation (if any).
I think it's really a competitor to a 3rd Gen iPod Touch.
Mostly consumption, a few non-serious apps, and that's it.
It may sell, but it's not a direct competitor. It doesn't SEEM like they're going head to head with Apple, but sites will say-so to get hits.
The real temptation will be THIS WiFi thing for $200 against a $350 1st-gen iPad WiFI Refurb from Apple (which they've had), or even $300 or less on the used market.
I think they'll see a decent number, but it's stop-gap until later, and won't take a big-bite out of ipad.
1) The Fire is available on Nov 15, 10 days before Black Friday.
2) I read that the initial order is for 3 million Fires through December
3) The Fire has an estimated parts cost of $185 (very low margin)
4) Apparently, Amazon intends to offset the Fire's low/no margin by selling higher-margin content and services
5) The only seller of the Fire will be the Amazon online store -- no channel to stuff
6) There will be no 3rd-party resellers -- no place for a customer to go and "try before you buy"
7) Likely, Amazon"s top sellers will include all flavors of Kindle tablet and eReaders (and there will be a server overload)...
8) There will be no way to determine the Fire's sell-through -- except anecdotally
9) It will be interesting to see if Amazon can sell 3 million Fires in 45 days
10) If they do, what does that tell us about all of the above points?
It tells us that because of the above points, Amazon sold exactly as many as it ordered. Or wait...maybe they sold DESPITE the above points? Or maybe the points were irrelevant and had little to do with sales one way or the other? Maybe the sales would have been higher/lower had one or more or some or all of the above had been different?
I predict Amazon will sell a ton of Fires, and Apple will sell a ton of iPads, and the world will continue to turn.
My problem with the typical iPad competitor is that it's less functionality (exactly how much is debatable) for roughly the same price as the iPad. Less functionality for a significantly lower price makes a lot more sense to most people. Especially if it does what you need, and the "lost" functionality is something you wouldn't use anyway.
Different people have different needs, but I spend 95% of my iPad time in web, mail, news, and reading apps -- and I'd be shocked if the Fire isn't completely adequate for those. I've bought dozens of awesome apps and rarely use most of them. I have no interest in the iBooks store because I can pay the same price elsewhere for the same ebook that works on multiple device platforms. I find the cripped iPad shopping apps annoying (and think it's ridiculous for Apple to demand a 30% cut for physical products where the actual online seller is likely only making 10%).
All that to say... perhaps the iPad is both overkill and less than perfect for a lot of people?
I'm guessing I could probably keep the iPad and still get $199 of value out of one of these... I could only imagine what that means for someone without an iPad.
I am quite happy with my iPad. One reason I might buy a Fire is if it has significantly more movie content than iTunes. I am a big movie fan and am often disappointed with the size of Apple's back catalog (though they seem to have most of the new releases).
Amazon is a web store. It has loyal customers including myself, but they are coming second place to iTune and Appstore in many areas of content. Only 5 years ago, they were without rival.
Change the pattern of access to their store by these mobile device, and they are left with just a nice webpage.
Also look at there PE (price vs earnings) ratio of 98. They are in the stratosphere and will be falling to back to earth at an alarming rate, unless they can make it work. They are vulnerable, and they need to sell these tablets hard and fast.
Amzn's pe is vulnerable to individual state's collecting sales tax, like California recently tried to do. In fact their whole business model which has a four percent margin will collapse if when the states start collecting
Personally a five percent bump in their prices makes them less compelling.
In truth I don't find their store design attractive.
What is up with that wanky note on Amazon's front page? Dear Customer, there are two kinds of companies... blah blah blah. Why not just start with "We are excited to announce... " ?
They seem to be worried that people will take the low price as meaning it's junk, and therefore feel the need to frame the announcement with this paragraph at the top, and a similar one at the bottom.
But to today's battle hardened consumer, framing is obvious and clumsy and off-putting. Just trust your customer to think about the product their way, and still come to the right conclusion, instead of trying to control how they think about it.
7 inch tablets are too small for any normal person's fingers.
Only if you want to write an essay. For reading a book, watching a movie, browsing this is just fine.
One of the iPad's strengths will be that you can type well on it. The Kindle Fire's strength will be that you can consume Amazon media on a cheap tablet.
Comments
Apple is clueless WRT building low-cost devices. Steve has said so many times. That is why they cannot compete in the low-cost computer segment or the low-cost phone segment.
Nonsense. They dominate mp3 players. And no manufacturer can compete with the iPad except Amazon. That's just one model.
Let me repeat what I keep having to say. The android tablet market is dead - that's all Kindle. Only Apple can compete.
Will the next iPhone ship before these new Kindles? AT&T says my eligible date to avoid the $250 early upgrade fee isn't until mid November so it looks like I'll be waiting until then to buy it.
That's an interesting question!
I would guess yes -- for these reasons:
1) Next week announce
2) Some rumors of realignment of part numbers
3) No update to the the iOS beta since August 31
4) The recent iCloud enema
5) Rumors of iOS voice activation
I suspect that Apple will announce the new iPhone on October 4, available November 4 (Friday).
They will announce iOS 5 GM for developers (with any new features) available immediately.
iOS 5 can be made available to the Public anytime between Oct 4 and Dec 4.
I suspect that they might do a staggered release of iOS 5 and/or iCloud before the iPhone 5 -- so the can control the download activity and the anticipated load on their iCloud Servers.
This is showtime for Eddie Cue!
One of the disadvantages of the 7" form factor is when used in landscape mode for surfing or typing -- there is very little room above the onscreen kb to display a WP document, spreadsheet, web page or web form...
The PlayBook, which has the same format as the Fire, demoed typing a WP document where 4 lines of small text were visible above the KB.
If they were to use, say, a 4:3 vs the 16:9 -- then the kb would be too narrow to type comfortably.
You can always go to portrait mode to gain more screen real estate for the document, but then, the kb is only suitable for 1-finger or thumb typing.
All in all, the iPad form factor does a better job of satisfying most use cases.
I totally agree with this. 16:9 is not an optimal ratio for activities other than watching movies.
Amazon has just put a nail in the coffin of all other tablet manufacturers, made almost no difference to Apple at all, and helped shift sales from traditional computers to tablets.
Obviously, the device is compared to the iPad here because the banner at the top of this page has "Apple" in the name. The real product this goes head to head with is Nook. I have the latest e-ink Nook and it's awesome. I mainly have it because 1. The original Nook had features that suit me better than the original Kindle, and 2. it sells at brick and mortar stores so you can easily swing by to touch it in person to see how it works (I did so, ironically on my way to the Apple store in my mall). Since I started with Nook, I went with the second gen touch. I can't imagine that the Kindle touch could be significantly better, but it sells for $40 dollars less. In the war between Amazon and B&N, it seems being the first to release a product may not always be best.
B&N had a color reader-tablet like device first, but it sells for $50 more (also with a similar form factor). The fire appears to be a far superior color reader than the Nook Color because of Amazon Prime, and it costs less. I haven't used any kindle to see what the interface is like, but the touch e-ink they sell combined with the greater media and what seems to be a superior device in the fire are the kind of things that could seriously put Barnes and Noble in danger of going out of business, if their brick and mortar experience for people who want traditional printed books isn't enough to offset Amazon pulling ahead in the e-reader department. B&N better have something significant waiting in the wings to roll out soon, or I think they could be in serious jeopardy.
All in all, the iPad form factor does a better job of satisfying most use cases.
That's the nature of a compromise device - while it does a better job with most uses, other devices do a "best job" with certain tailored uses.
One of the great marketing realities is that company's need to be willing to "eat their own children" (products).
The posters who said the Fire will have an impact are correct -- it competes for the "tablet-is-easier-to-use-than-my-PC" space in the home. Once Amazon's movies, apps get entrenched then that household will be more likely to follow the upgrade to more expensive Amazon (modified Android) products as long as their app/media investments are preserved.
The number of households who want multiple, unrelated, tablet families with a different UX are a
NANO-segment of buyers. There is really only one opening in households for a "tablet-is-easier-to-use-than-my-PC" device.
Apple would do themselves a great favor by finding a way to get very, very close to the price point of an Amazon Fire in order to reduce intrusion into the iPad's primary market space. Find it, build it, iCloud it, and then give them a reason to move up to a faster, better, more expensive iPad (as the first one gets handed to someone else in the household).
The general (non-tech) media will establish the market position that it's an alternative to the low end iPads before today is over. Just look at the headlines from Fox and MSNBC already.
I've been wrong before, but almost never about marketing.
That's an interesting question. In our house we have 6 iPads 3 iPad 1s and 3 iPad 2s. Two of the 3 kids have iPad 1s. the oldest kid has an iPad 2 as do the 2 adults.
The iPad 1 are perfectly adequate for most uses: reading, homework, drill and practice, movies, games.
In fact, all but a handful of the 702 apps we have purchased (including iPhone apps) will run on the iPad 1.
Apple is currently selling refurb WiFi iPad 1s for $299.
I wonder If Apple were to Reintroduce the iPad 1 WiFi as a high-volume, lower-cost model alongside the iPad 2. I suspect they could sell it for, say, $249 and include some iCloud services and iTunes Store apps and content.
I suspect that, with Apple's economies of scale, older technology, development costs already recovered, etc... they could make a respectable profit at $249.
Actually I get what they're doing. Content-consumption. Less creation (if any).
I think it's really a competitor to a 3rd Gen iPod Touch.
Mostly consumption, a few non-serious apps, and that's it.
It may sell, but it's not a direct competitor. It doesn't SEEM like they're going head to head with Apple, but sites will say-so to get hits.
The real temptation will be THIS WiFi thing for $200 against a $350 1st-gen iPad WiFI Refurb from Apple (which they've had), or even $300 or less on the used market.
I think they'll see a decent number, but it's stop-gap until later, and won't take a big-bite out of ipad.
This will be interesting to watch and learn:
1) The Fire is available on Nov 15, 10 days before Black Friday.
2) I read that the initial order is for 3 million Fires through December
3) The Fire has an estimated parts cost of $185 (very low margin)
4) Apparently, Amazon intends to offset the Fire's low/no margin by selling higher-margin content and services
5) The only seller of the Fire will be the Amazon online store -- no channel to stuff
6) There will be no 3rd-party resellers -- no place for a customer to go and "try before you buy"
7) Likely, Amazon"s top sellers will include all flavors of Kindle tablet and eReaders (and there will be a server overload)...
8) There will be no way to determine the Fire's sell-through -- except anecdotally
9) It will be interesting to see if Amazon can sell 3 million Fires in 45 days
10) If they do, what does that tell us about all of the above points?
It tells us that because of the above points, Amazon sold exactly as many as it ordered. Or wait...maybe they sold DESPITE the above points? Or maybe the points were irrelevant and had little to do with sales one way or the other? Maybe the sales would have been higher/lower had one or more or some or all of the above had been different?
I dunno.
I'm wondering about the browser rendering in the sky stuff.
Does that mean that Amazon is going to know every single site that somebody visits?
When I go to visit my favorite site, horny midgets getting it on with horses, is Amazon going to have a record of that?
You betchum, Red Rider...
BTW, got a link
...The closest I could find is:
terror of tiny town
An evil gunslinging midget comes to terrorize the good little people of Tiny Town. The townspeople organize to defeat him, and zany antics ensue...
My problem with the typical iPad competitor is that it's less functionality (exactly how much is debatable) for roughly the same price as the iPad. Less functionality for a significantly lower price makes a lot more sense to most people. Especially if it does what you need, and the "lost" functionality is something you wouldn't use anyway.
Different people have different needs, but I spend 95% of my iPad time in web, mail, news, and reading apps -- and I'd be shocked if the Fire isn't completely adequate for those. I've bought dozens of awesome apps and rarely use most of them. I have no interest in the iBooks store because I can pay the same price elsewhere for the same ebook that works on multiple device platforms. I find the cripped iPad shopping apps annoying (and think it's ridiculous for Apple to demand a 30% cut for physical products where the actual online seller is likely only making 10%).
All that to say... perhaps the iPad is both overkill and less than perfect for a lot of people?
I'm guessing I could probably keep the iPad and still get $199 of value out of one of these... I could only imagine what that means for someone without an iPad.
What if Oracle wins its case against Google for Android? Does this mean that anyone who has forked Android is open to a similar lawsuit from Oracle?
As I understand it, once you fork Android -- it's yours from then on (or until you fork another version).
Verdad?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUtmO...el_video_title
For the price of 1 iPad (wifi 16GB) you can get 3 Kindles ( 2 Kindle Fire + 1 Kindle E-reader) AND still have $20 left for accessories.
Translation:
iPad $499
iPaid $199
iSave $300
Quoted from a CNET comment by Pete Saman.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-20...carouselMain.0
See AI? How easy that was to quote your sources?
Amazon is a web store. It has loyal customers including myself, but they are coming second place to iTune and Appstore in many areas of content. Only 5 years ago, they were without rival.
Change the pattern of access to their store by these mobile device, and they are left with just a nice webpage.
Also look at there PE (price vs earnings) ratio of 98. They are in the stratosphere and will be falling to back to earth at an alarming rate, unless they can make it work. They are vulnerable, and they need to sell these tablets hard and fast.
Amzn's pe is vulnerable to individual state's collecting sales tax, like California recently tried to do. In fact their whole business model which has a four percent margin will collapse if when the states start collecting
Personally a five percent bump in their prices makes them less compelling.
In truth I don't find their store design attractive.
The UI is even more simple than Apple's iPad.
For the price of 1 iPad (wifi 16GB) you can get 3 Kindles ( 2 Kindle Fire + 1 Kindle E-reader) AND still have $20 left for accessories.
Translation:
Quoted from a CNET comment by Pete Saman.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-20...carouselMain.0
See AI? How easy that was to quote your sources?
Whatever happened to the Android lovers hatred of closed source closed environments?
Apple needs to submit iBooks to the Android store
Whatever happened to the Android lovers hatred of closed source closed environments?
The Kindle Fire shows that it was only ever about hating Apple for the sake of hating Apple.
They seem to be worried that people will take the low price as meaning it's junk, and therefore feel the need to frame the announcement with this paragraph at the top, and a similar one at the bottom.
But to today's battle hardened consumer, framing is obvious and clumsy and off-putting. Just trust your customer to think about the product their way, and still come to the right conclusion, instead of trying to control how they think about it.
The UI is even more simple than Apple's iPad.
For the price of 1 iPad (wifi 16GB) you can get 3 Kindles ( 2 Kindle Fire + 1 Kindle E-reader) AND still have $20 left for accessories.
Translation:
Quoted from a CNET comment by Pete Saman.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-20...carouselMain.0
See AI? How easy that was to quote your sources?
Or, for the price of a refurb 16 GB WiFi iPad 1 you get:
$299 iPad 1
-Free 5 GB iCloud storage
-Free unlimited iCloud storage for purchased iTunes (and you don't have to spend hours/days uploading your music)
-Free unlimited iCloud storage for purchased Apps
What is iCloud?
7 inch tablets are too small for any normal person's fingers.
Only if you want to write an essay. For reading a book, watching a movie, browsing this is just fine.
One of the iPad's strengths will be that you can type well on it. The Kindle Fire's strength will be that you can consume Amazon media on a cheap tablet.