Interesting to read the comments on any Apple Watch article. It does bring out a polarized crowd. Meaning lots of hits and page visits for AI. So...of course a nonsensical article title is included.
The comment about the "personal" communication is quite accurate. I too think the taptic feature will be a big draw.
I ditched my landline some years ago in favor of cell. When I'm home, I put my phone on my computer to recharge. But of course, I can't hear it when I am in another room (and I don't have a huge house.) Apple Watch solves this rather neatly. I don't want an iPhone in my pocket at home (and fairly, don't usually wear a watch at home, but this makes the utility worth the effort to alter that.)
Conservatively, Apple has sold 320 Million iPhones in the last 2 years ...
So, 10% of that would be 32 million Apple Watches!
I think you underestimate the utility of an Apple Watch.
You can communicate, shop/buy things, control things (your home), monitor your health, monitor the outside world -- All with a wave of your wrist ... For most things, the attendant iPhone will stay in your purse, pocket or pack!
It's called convenience!
Can you save an hour a week? Do you make more than $350 / 52 an hour?
Not to mention the enterprises who will supply them to their employees -- and parents to their kids!
And you can use Pages on an iPhone and an iPad, but that doesn't mean I want to. I'm trying to limit my technology use, not become attached to it. I like that my phone is in my pocket or face down on a table not distracting me from life sometimes. Technology is moderation is a great thing; I love technology, but I also value and cherish the breaks I get from it.
I agree with your take on technology -- we must use it carefully, or we become it's slave.
It is very easy to become tethered to our iPhones -- to the point that we're always connected to everyone ... everything ... available to their every demand ...
I recently noticed that when talking with the grandkids -- they would listen, but, at the same time, would multi-task looking and keying into their iPhones. I told them that this was very rude -- the person in front of them deserved their full attention. Occasionally, they need to be reminded: "Turn your phone off (Airplane mode) when you are talking with someone!"
The Apple Watch could be an even more insidious distraction -- as the wearer can receive haptic messages without anyone else aware of it.
The number of iPhones sold per year is what - 150M-200M? So the max market is 15M. Not that large
It isn't the number of phones sold per year, but rather the installed base of compatible phones (iPhone 5 and higher) where the ?Watch has a target market. Most people keep their phones for 2-3 years, and even then the phone is often passed down to someone else or sold. The installed base of compatible phones by mid-2015 is likely to be 400M or better.
That being said, my view is that uptake will still be limited in its first year, as people of course will take a "wait and see" attitude for a new device which is mostly an accessory. They will want to see what its uses are, how popular is it with the early adopters, etc. I think 5% of the installed, compatible iPhone base is a reasonable number, so 15-20M is what I think would be a spectacular first 12 months.
The margins on this device, given its size, should be very healthy - greater than 50% at the entry level device and growing (lots of money in R&D, but once finalized, the BOM should be constrained due to size of components). Apple will make lots of money on the ?Watch.
Of course the clowns at BI are all over this survey thinking it means DOOM for Apple. But why should it surprise anyone? Of course there was going to be more interest in ?Watch right after it was first announced. Interest will spike back up again close to launch.
I will bet my left nut that the haptic touch communication is going to be very popular as a killer feature by itself.
Imagine all the boyfriends, girlfriends, spouses. There is a reason men buy their women roses on valentines. The expectations for communication in society will be changed by haptics very rapidly. If a girl has an iwatch and is using haptics with her friend, her boyfriend is getting one almost certainly. Touch is not just "personal" as Apple mentioned, it is sexual as well. Apple did not want to say this at the conference. There is a distinctly addictive nature to touch.
If you think text messaging became addictive and transformed culture fast, you haven't seen anything yet.
Since the touch communication is apple specific (since you can't do this between andriod and apple even if samsung adds this to their watch), this will further entrench apple ecosystem owners. Samsung and others will copy this, but it will be too late since Apple will already have the cultural penetration by then. Also as usual, samsung will find it hard to implement this well in the outset in the same way they had trouble copying touchID. Also almost nobody except tech nerds are buying google related watches. You cant send someone a haptic message if nobody is wearing the watch... Apple will see rapid user base expansion due to wealthier overall customers with a propensity to buy apple's new products despite prices. I bought a retina 5k imac... You dont think I'm gonna take the apple watch for a spin? Obviously if I buy one, the wife is gonna get one... And the kids are going to be wishing for one... Especially as a few of their friends are sending touches to eachother's boy/girlfriends in class. Next thing you know they will be banning them in class when some girl starts putting the watch near her groin while some dude is sending her a "message" or vice versa. As if sexting wasn't an expected consequence of texting.
The pleasure centers in our brain want to be stimulated, and touch has a significantly more sexual connotation at a subconscious level than you might overtly realize. Remember when that girl you liked just happened to walk by and her hair or dress brushed up against you... Subtle but powerful.
Underestimating haptic communication is a huge mistake. I am guessing Apple stock at 150-200 by 2017. They will sell out the apple watch despite max production for the next 2 years.
Communication will certainly be one of the main draws of such ?Watch. As Apple advertises, it will provide the most personal communication forms yet. Despite what many industry pundits claim, that "content is king", communications is actually worth far more (look at the industry value of communications companies vs. content companies). Most persons use of smartphones is for communications (social, texting, photo sharing, mail, and voice at the rear). Apple is introducing two new forms with the watch - haptic & sketch - so some clear drivers there once it catches on - the latter particularly with Asian languages.
Other primary use case areas already presented are identity (?Pay, secure access), health/fitness, time keeping, and overall convenience. I read an article a few months ago that referenced a study which claimed that the average person accessed their phone (pulled it out of pocket, purse, etc) about 150 times/day. Apple Watch would greatly reduce that, and while many will trivialize it (I already have a phone), history has proven that people will pay for convenience.
I don't see the watch as anything impressive. If it cannot function as a normal watch that can replace a real watch, then it has little value. Unless Apple management and other employees who have been using the Apple Watch themselves and realizing its inadequacies, did a significant redesign of the product, I don't see the product selling. Somewhere Apple must be gauging how many will sell in order to decide how many to manufacture.
I don't see the watch as anything impressive. If it cannot function as a normal watch that can replace a real watch, then it has little value. Unless Apple management and other employees who have been using the Apple Watch themselves and realizing its inadequacies, did a significant redesign of the product, I don't see the product selling. Somewhere Apple must be gauging how many will sell in order to decide how many to manufacture.
I predict the Apple Watch will flop big time.
I am not sure what Apple Watch "inadequacies" you perceive.
AFAICT, the Apple Watch can provide all the "normal watch" functions without communicating with the iPhone -- and, so it can replace a "real watch" ... Though it's more accurate, can display several watch faces, and monitor/log health/fitness data.
If desired, the Apple Watch can communicate with the outside world through the attendant iPhone.
I don't see the watch as anything impressive. If it cannot function as a normal watch that can replace a real watch, then it has little value. Unless Apple management and other employees who have been using the Apple Watch themselves and realizing its inadequacies, did a significant redesign of the product, I don't see the product selling. Somewhere Apple must be gauging how many will sell in order to decide how many to manufacture.
I predict the Apple Watch will flop big time.
I wasn't aware you got to decide what has value and what doesn't. Most people these days don't even wear a watch so why would with their determining factor be whether ?Watch can replace a traditional watch? Perhaps some of us plan to use it for things other than telling time.
While this is not a good sign it will be interesting to see if Apple can launch a successful full throttle marketing campaign and not just for the Vogue Anna Wintour/ Kim Kartrashian crowd we've seen so far. On another note I still see the same shrills on here not discussing the topic as always- like their stock portfolios for an AWatch discussion?
I wasn't aware you got to decide what has value and what doesn't. Most people these days don't even wear a watch so why would with their determining factor be whether ?Watch can replace a traditional watch? Perhaps some of us plan to use it for things other than telling time.
If?! Why not do even a modicum of research before you make a silly conditional comment about whether it will be able to tell time.
Research. Easy. Just look at the specs on the Apple site. Done. Runs only one day requiring recharging; my current Timex watch runs 12 months before I have to change the battery. I wear my Timex 24x7; Apple Watch has to be taken off to charge every day. I wear my Timex in the shower; iWatch not waterproof. I wear my Timex while swimming and is good down to 50m; iWatch not water proof -- maybe it can handle getting rained on. My Timex cost me $40 about 6 years ago, replacement bands have cost me $60 over the years, plus replacement batteries; iWatch starts at 4x the amount I've spent for 6 years.
I buy products for their functionality and usability first and durability a close second; attractiveness and style is important also. Apple wins hands down for their current hardware. iWatch specs currently published don't come close to the functionality that would attract me at any price. I this point, I wouldn't wear the iWatch if it was given to me for free.
It will be fun asking all the employees wearing them to show me something it can do [I]besides[/I] tell time and not need a magnifying glass to see it. Ellen Degeneres will have a field day.
Comments
Just bought new Cartier and curious to see what TAG-H offers. Gen 1 Apple Watch, no sale here!
Interesting to read the comments on any Apple Watch article. It does bring out a polarized crowd. Meaning lots of hits and page visits for AI. So...of course a nonsensical article title is included.
The comment about the "personal" communication is quite accurate. I too think the taptic feature will be a big draw.
I ditched my landline some years ago in favor of cell. When I'm home, I put my phone on my computer to recharge. But of course, I can't hear it when I am in another room (and I don't have a huge house.) Apple Watch solves this rather neatly. I don't want an iPhone in my pocket at home (and fairly, don't usually wear a watch at home, but this makes the utility worth the effort to alter that.)
I agree with your take on technology -- we must use it carefully, or we become it's slave.
It is very easy to become tethered to our iPhones -- to the point that we're always connected to everyone ... everything ... available to their every demand ...
I recently noticed that when talking with the grandkids -- they would listen, but, at the same time, would multi-task looking and keying into their iPhones. I told them that this was very rude -- the person in front of them deserved their full attention. Occasionally, they need to be reminded: "Turn your phone off (Airplane mode) when you are talking with someone!"
The Apple Watch could be an even more insidious distraction -- as the wearer can receive haptic messages without anyone else aware of it.
The number of iPhones sold per year is what - 150M-200M? So the max market is 15M. Not that large
It isn't the number of phones sold per year, but rather the installed base of compatible phones (iPhone 5 and higher) where the ?Watch has a target market. Most people keep their phones for 2-3 years, and even then the phone is often passed down to someone else or sold. The installed base of compatible phones by mid-2015 is likely to be 400M or better.
That being said, my view is that uptake will still be limited in its first year, as people of course will take a "wait and see" attitude for a new device which is mostly an accessory. They will want to see what its uses are, how popular is it with the early adopters, etc. I think 5% of the installed, compatible iPhone base is a reasonable number, so 15-20M is what I think would be a spectacular first 12 months.
The margins on this device, given its size, should be very healthy - greater than 50% at the entry level device and growing (lots of money in R&D, but once finalized, the BOM should be constrained due to size of components). Apple will make lots of money on the ?Watch.
This main article is stupid obviously...
I will bet my left nut that the haptic touch communication is going to be very popular as a killer feature by itself.
Imagine all the boyfriends, girlfriends, spouses. There is a reason men buy their women roses on valentines. The expectations for communication in society will be changed by haptics very rapidly. If a girl has an iwatch and is using haptics with her friend, her boyfriend is getting one almost certainly. Touch is not just "personal" as Apple mentioned, it is sexual as well. Apple did not want to say this at the conference. There is a distinctly addictive nature to touch.
If you think text messaging became addictive and transformed culture fast, you haven't seen anything yet.
Since the touch communication is apple specific (since you can't do this between andriod and apple even if samsung adds this to their watch), this will further entrench apple ecosystem owners. Samsung and others will copy this, but it will be too late since Apple will already have the cultural penetration by then. Also as usual, samsung will find it hard to implement this well in the outset in the same way they had trouble copying touchID. Also almost nobody except tech nerds are buying google related watches. You cant send someone a haptic message if nobody is wearing the watch... Apple will see rapid user base expansion due to wealthier overall customers with a propensity to buy apple's new products despite prices. I bought a retina 5k imac... You dont think I'm gonna take the apple watch for a spin? Obviously if I buy one, the wife is gonna get one... And the kids are going to be wishing for one... Especially as a few of their friends are sending touches to eachother's boy/girlfriends in class. Next thing you know they will be banning them in class when some girl starts putting the watch near her groin while some dude is sending her a "message" or vice versa. As if sexting wasn't an expected consequence of texting.
The pleasure centers in our brain want to be stimulated, and touch has a significantly more sexual connotation at a subconscious level than you might overtly realize. Remember when that girl you liked just happened to walk by and her hair or dress brushed up against you... Subtle but powerful.
Underestimating haptic communication is a huge mistake. I am guessing Apple stock at 150-200 by 2017. They will sell out the apple watch despite max production for the next 2 years.
Communication will certainly be one of the main draws of such ?Watch. As Apple advertises, it will provide the most personal communication forms yet. Despite what many industry pundits claim, that "content is king", communications is actually worth far more (look at the industry value of communications companies vs. content companies). Most persons use of smartphones is for communications (social, texting, photo sharing, mail, and voice at the rear). Apple is introducing two new forms with the watch - haptic & sketch - so some clear drivers there once it catches on - the latter particularly with Asian languages.
Other primary use case areas already presented are identity (?Pay, secure access), health/fitness, time keeping, and overall convenience. I read an article a few months ago that referenced a study which claimed that the average person accessed their phone (pulled it out of pocket, purse, etc) about 150 times/day. Apple Watch would greatly reduce that, and while many will trivialize it (I already have a phone), history has proven that people will pay for convenience.
I don't see the watch as anything impressive. If it cannot function as a normal watch that can replace a real watch, then it has little value. Unless Apple management and other employees who have been using the Apple Watch themselves and realizing its inadequacies, did a significant redesign of the product, I don't see the product selling. Somewhere Apple must be gauging how many will sell in order to decide how many to manufacture.
I predict the Apple Watch will flop big time.
Yes, except your link takes me to anarticle written by Doug Kass, not Gene Munster.
Yes, exactly. That's who Rogifan mentioned in her post. My post was about Doug Kass, not Gene Munster.
If?! Why not do even a modicum of research before you make a silly conditional comment about whether it will be able to tell time.
I am not sure what Apple Watch "inadequacies" you perceive.
AFAICT, the Apple Watch can provide all the "normal watch" functions without communicating with the iPhone -- and, so it can replace a "real watch" ... Though it's more accurate, can display several watch faces, and monitor/log health/fitness data.
If desired, the Apple Watch can communicate with the outside world through the attendant iPhone.
Your definition of "sucking" is being up 12% for the quarter? Good thing you don't work on Wall Street.
12% in 3 months is embarrassing. I made more than %20 in other stocks in a month an a half since mid November.
I wasn't aware you got to decide what has value and what doesn't. Most people these days don't even wear a watch so why would with their determining factor be whether ?Watch can replace a traditional watch? Perhaps some of us plan to use it for things other than telling time.
Let's see in the last three months Apple is up over 11%; the Nasdaq is up only 5.4%; S&P 500 only 4%.
Year to date Apple is up over 40% whereas the Nasdaq is only up 14.3% and S&P 500 just over 12%.
How is any of that embarrassing?
ARE YOU FOR REAL? 12% every 3 months is 57.35% per annum.
On another note I still see the same shrills on here not discussing the topic as always- like their stock portfolios for an AWatch discussion?
It is called a "watch" you know.
If?! Why not do even a modicum of research before you make a silly conditional comment about whether it will be able to tell time.
Research. Easy. Just look at the specs on the Apple site. Done. Runs only one day requiring recharging; my current Timex watch runs 12 months before I have to change the battery. I wear my Timex 24x7; Apple Watch has to be taken off to charge every day. I wear my Timex in the shower; iWatch not waterproof. I wear my Timex while swimming and is good down to 50m; iWatch not water proof -- maybe it can handle getting rained on. My Timex cost me $40 about 6 years ago, replacement bands have cost me $60 over the years, plus replacement batteries; iWatch starts at 4x the amount I've spent for 6 years.
I buy products for their functionality and usability first and durability a close second; attractiveness and style is important also. Apple wins hands down for their current hardware. iWatch specs currently published don't come close to the functionality that would attract me at any price. I this point, I wouldn't wear the iWatch if it was given to me for free.
Ellen Degeneres will have a field day.