Second-gen Apple Watch likely to wait until mid- to late 2016 - report

Posted:
in Apple Watch edited October 2015
A second-generation Apple Watch is predicted no earlier than mid-2016, and will likely feature a thinner size and better performance, according to a Cowen and Company research memo based on a recent tour of Asian suppliers.




The Cowen forecast calls for Apple to ship 18 million Watches by the end of 2015, but at least 45 million in 2016, added analyst Timothy Arcuri. Figures for next year may actually be too pessimistic based on the strength of 2015 data, he suggested.

The original Apple Watch shipped on April 24. Should the Cowen predictions be accurate, Apple's follow-up could arrive in May, June, or even later.

It's unclear whether Cowen's claims about the features of the device are purely speculative or based on research. Very few rumors about a second-gen Watch have emerged so far, such as one from July claimed that the new hardware would retain roughly the same external design, but make more room inside for a bigger battery.

Apple often sacrifices potential battery gains for thinner designs, but might also be inclined to meet demand for a wearable that can last 24 hours or more on a single charge. Few major smartwatches can reliably run more than that, and often depend on technologies like e-ink or disposable batteries to do so.

Based on its trip report, Cowen separately estimated 40 million iPhone shipments for the September quarter of 2015, and called for fourth-quarter shipments to reach the mid-70 million range. The firm backed the view that there may actually be two different versions of the A9 chip in initial iPhone 6s/6s Plus models, but that the A10 will exist in a single form made by TSMC.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 70
    Aren't big, chunky watches "in" right now? On the other hand, if they can't make to two days on battery, gaining a few hours isn't a practical benefit because you still need to charge every night. I guess it's safe to say the case won't get thinner than the diameter of the crown.
  • Reply 2 of 70

    The next Apple [insert product name] is predicted no earlier than mid-[insert year], and will likely feature a thinner size and better performance.

     

    How Apple Analysts write their reports.

  • Reply 3 of 70
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by RalphMouth View Post

     

    The next Apple [insert product name] is predicted no earlier than mid-[insert year], and will likely feature a thinner size and better performance.

     

    How Apple Analysts write their reports.


    You forgot to add: The [insert product name] will, however, be delayed for shipping because of [insert favorite supply chain bottleneck] and sell only [insert X%] more than the prior version, thereby making it an utter [insert favorite synonym for failure], and make Apple's stock [insert favorite synonym for decline].

  • Reply 4 of 70
    How can you forecast sales, it is impossible, bloody ANAL-yst!
  • Reply 5 of 70
    You mean a year or so after the original launched? Why is this news?
  • Reply 6 of 70
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    I'd say early May at the very latest. If the watch can't ship in time for the holidays, then in time for graduation makes the most sense. I'd guess that graduations likely see more watch sales than Christmas. The Summer is also prime for wedding anniversaries. Releasing it mid-Summer seems like a waste unless the gen 2 can be positioned as the ultimate family vacation device, with an IPX8 rated enclosure, etc. otherwise, they might as well make it September and release it with the new iPhones.

    As some have pointed out, Apple was rumored to ship the watch at the end of 2014, but software issues pushed it back until Spring. If so, then given the typical development time on a product, the 2nd gen watch should be ready to go at the end of 2015, so no reason not to keep a Spring release, and capitalize on the graduation gift season, assuming no similar delays.
  • Reply 7 of 70
    mike1mike1 Posts: 3,298member

    What incredible skill and foresight these analysts have. They actually get paid for this by somebody?

     

    The sun will rise in the east and it will probably be colder in winter than summer.

  • Reply 8 of 70
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    magic_al wrote: »
    Aren't big, chunky watches "in" right now? On the other hand, if they can't make to two days on battery, gaining a few hours isn't a practical benefit because you still need to charge every night. I guess it's safe to say the case won't get thinner than the diameter of the crown.
    Apple is repeatedly demonstrating that they are positioning this product for the luxury fashion market. As such, they will likely offer multiple case styles at some point. I wouldn't call the current design "chunky", at least in the sense of the oversized high end chronographs people are currently wearing. The watch can't just be scaled up to pull that off either, it needs to be designed with that look. And people prefer all types of watches, thin, to bulky and everything in between. I see Apple eventually catering to that just like there are now three sizes of iPads and iPhones now.

    As for the crown, I don't see any reason the crown can't be down-sized and work exactly the way it does now. It's effortless to use at the moment, so making it smaller won't change how effectively it works, in fact they might write an algorithm that speeds up the scroll rate given the shortened contact area with the finger.
  • Reply 9 of 70
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member

    Having worn the 42mm model for months now, I can safely say I'm very much interested in a larger model. Perhaps 48mm.

     

    Compared to other "big watches that men wear" the 42mm is still rather small.

  • Reply 10 of 70
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Magic_Al View Post



    Aren't big, chunky watches "in" right now? On the other hand, if they can't make to two days on battery, gaining a few hours isn't a practical benefit because you still need to charge every night. I guess it's safe to say the case won't get thinner than the diameter of the crown.



    Making it last longer than 1 full day is of no benefit to anyone. I have 1 Apple Watch charger, and its on my nightstand. I'm not wearing the damn thing to bed, so there is absolutely positively no benefit whatsoever to it lasting longer than a day....I'm putting it on the charger at night like I do every other device. Under what delusion must I operate to see the benefit of putting it on the charger every other night?

  • Reply 11 of 70
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Magic_Al View Post



    ...On the other hand, if they can't make to two days on battery, gaining a few hours isn't a practical benefit because you still need to charge every night. ...

    With my typical usage the watch theoretically could go two days because it uses about 50% battery per day, but you are right, it needs to be charged everyday. If it had a couple extra hours it would for sure make it two days with a little bit to spare. The good thing though, is that it charges pretty fast. It can go from 50% to 100% in about a half hour, so if you forgot to charge it you can get enough for the day in the time it takes you to shave and shower in the morning.

  • Reply 12 of 70

    Unless they can make the battery last a week or thereabouts, I don't see the point.  At the moment, my watch can just about last 2 days, but I generally charge it every night anyway, even although it's sitting at about 60% when I go to bed.

     

    I personally think that Apple will delay any introduction of the Apple Watch 2 because of the staggered release of v1.

     

    It's still not available everywhere yet and will basically start selling in droves shortly.  I reckon it will be late 2016 at the earliest.  And it's likely that v2.0 will be essentially like the iPhone S's.  It will have the same form factor, still use the same bands and may have better battery, but not significantly better battery and will have a better CPU/GPU and possibly extra sensors, but that will be it.

  • Reply 13 of 70
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pmz View Post

     



    Making it last longer than 1 full day is of no benefit to anyone. I have 1 Apple Watch charger, and its on my nightstand. I'm not wearing the damn thing to bed, so there is absolutely positively no benefit whatsoever to it lasting longer than a day....I'm putting it on the charger at night like I do every other device. Under what delusion must I operate to see the benefit of putting it on the charger every other night?


    I agree. A battery that lasts longer than a day has no benefit for me. I'm not wearing the watch 24/7. It's not a big deal to put it on the charger every night next to my phone. 

  • Reply 14 of 70
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Ahh...the good old supply chain chatter. Meaningless.
  • Reply 15 of 70
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post

     

    With my typical usage the watch theoretically could go two days because it uses about 50% battery per day, but you are right, it needs to be charged everyday. If it had a couple extra hours it would for sure make it two days with a little bit to spare. The good thing though, is that it charges pretty fast. It can go from 50% to 100% in about a half hour, so if you forgot to charge it you can get enough for the day in the time it takes you to shave and shower in the morning.


    I haven't seen mine charge that fast, but will take a closer look, since I rarely charge it in the day (only if forgetting the night before, which is rare).  IMO, "fast charging" is more important than 2 days of battery life.  Should a decent sleep monitoring app arrive, I would be interested in wearing the watch at night, but would really like to have it charge (almost) fully in the half hour from getting up to getting ready to leave for work.  A new feature that would get me to upgrade in the future for sure.

     

    As for size, it isn't too big now, though I think design changes for generation 2 are important to keep momentum on the device, bring in new buyers, and some upgraders.  In maybe 3 or 4 years, they could move to a 2-year case design refresh like the iPhone.

     

    My request is to have a better battery that can support an (optional, configurable) lower-power always on mode (for the watch face only), which I would use at points in the day (e.g. not what it is dark, or in a dark room).  Just need the ability to quickly enable or disable this mode.  Such great watch faces (and more to come I am certain), it seems a shame not to be able to show them off.

  • Reply 16 of 70

    The biggest missing features on the Apple Watch are:

    1. A  built in GPS for location tracking.

    2. A full SDK with features like 3D, touch gestures, views and many other features that don't box developers into Apple's view of what the watch should be used for.

  • Reply 17 of 70
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,530member
    If there's one thing we know, because it's obvious, is that a watch needs the battery life to at least equal one full day's use. I'm not sure why anyone, such as the speculation in the article suggests, that battery life could ever be less than one day.

    In addition, there is little use for battery life that's more than one day, but less than two days. No matter how we look at it, battery life for watches must increase by a one day interval. No one is going to partly charge their watch during the day as we sometimes do with our phones and tablets. It's a totally different usage model.
  • Reply 18 of 70
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,530member
    sog35 wrote: »
    I'd rather charge a watch every day.
    Who the heck can remember if they charge Mon/Wed/Fri/Sun, ect.

    Just charge everyday just like the phone.

    I'd like to have the watch last a full weekend, if possible. Sometimes I forget to take a charger with me. My iPhone 6+ will let me do that if I'm careful. My iPad isn't as good about it, but I can just barely get away with it, if I'm really careful.
  • Reply 19 of 70
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    Ahh...the good old supply chain chatter. Meaningless.

    for the most part I agree but if this big Fall event is any indication, next Fall we see, Watch 2.0, iPhone 7, iPad Air 3(?), updated iPad Pro.

  • Reply 20 of 70
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,530member
    solipsismy wrote: »
    You mean a year or so after the original launched? Why is this news?

    A year would be April. They're talking about mid year, or late year.
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