I agree with this aggressive view, but with a twist. The 12", 15" and 17" will all be upgraded to 970s at the same time in September (actually right after the back to school buying season, I'll explain in a minute.)
[snip]
All 970, all at once in September is an excellent Powerbook plan that protects initial G5 Power Mac sales while still making this the "year of the laptop."
I'm willing to bet you a PowerBook 970 that they don't appear this year. If I win, you buy me one. If I lose, you buy me one. Deal?
I'm willing to bet you a PowerBook 970 that they don't appear this year. If I win, you buy me one. If I lose, you buy me one. Deal?
Sure, can I get 17 to 12 odds though? (If I win, you buy me a 17" and if you win, I'll buy you a 12")
Seriously, I'm really bummed that you're throwing cold water on my Powerbook projections. What is the alternative Moki? Is the 7457 real? Will we see 1.2 GHz+ G4s with a faster bus in the next Powerbook rev? If we're not getting 970s, what are we getting?
Maybe moki is playing a powerbook-name game of words here. His bet about a "PowerBook 970" not appearing this year sounds plausible; but that still leaves room for the almighty "PowerBook G5"*
I also hope moki is wrong this time around. My TiBook is seriously calling for retirement in 6 months or less. And if the towers get the 970 this year, I won't settle for less than über-970 performance for my TiBook replacement. I may be asking for too much, but I don't think a G4+ or whatever will cut it after we witness IBM's 970 and Panther.
I don't think moki knows anything the rest of us Average Joes don't. If he does, why does he waste his time on these boards?
why do you waste your precious time on these boards? because you hate it? moki is a developer he needs to know and to anticipate on future developments. although he might know more than you and me, speculation is a creative process and he uses it for his work.
Good to hear, 'cause thats not at all what I've been reading lately, which is that the Pentium M and its chipset have been heavily optimized for mobile use by its Israeli developers (not Intel), and that it runs XP at the approx. double the speed compared MHz by MHz to a P4-M.
The Israeli developers work for Intel. Intel has a development center in Israel, and developing there is not different than developing at some plant.
Heavy optimization fro mobile use means low power consumption, nothing else. While it is true that MHz for MHz the P4-M is faster than regular P4, it is not anywhere near "double".
The Centerino chipset is good, make no mistake about it. But it is in no way revolutionary. It just improves certain aspects of the P4 to make it better suited for mobility.
If moki is right, sales of one of apple's cashcows will drop significantly. People who buy mobile gear will not magically switch to a 970 desktop system.
I don't believe Apple is willing to see sales of the pbs to drop significantly.
Where is the upgrade to the pbs? 7447 seem nowhere to be seen and currently pbs already have the "fastest" G4 in them. There is no upgrade based around a G4.
Moki, what do you expect as upgrades?
If there is no 970 upgrade ready, why didn't Apple upgrade the pbs before? WWDC is focused on the 970 and Panther, an upgraded G4 pb would only distract people.
so now i have read the actual posts i come to the conclusion that we will have to see a powerbook 970 this year (september?) and the rest of the productline in 2004 (mwsf?)
I'm not sure you did read it correctly. The important part in bold.
Moki said:
Quote:
I'm willing to bet you a PowerBook 970 that they don't appear this year. If I win, you buy me one. If I lose, you buy me one.
This tells me that Powerbook 970s, or G5s, or whatever you want to call them are in the works, but major architecture changes for Apple laptops don't grow on trees. This fits in nicely with another quote from him about about hypertransport not working with G4s. I.e. all machines from Apple will be using the 970 at some point...just not this September. Perhaps we'll see a redesign of the case (exactly what's expected for the towers) when the chip debuts in all the PBs. If they're gonna put a 970 in PBs, then it'll go into all of them at the same time.
While it is true that MHz for MHz the P4-M is faster than regular P4,
Not to be picky, but you certainly meant to say "MHz for MHz the PM (Pentium Mobile) is faster than regular P4-M (Pentium 4 Mobile)"? The P4-M is just a slightly less power-hungry version of Intels P4. The Pentium M(obile) @ 1.6 GHz has about half the Power usage, and is faster than, a P4-M @ 2.4 GHz.
Both are considerably faster than any current G4 PowerBook in computing-intensive tasks, such as 3-D rendering or video encoding, and even using the same GPU the 3-D performance of a PowerBook does not even come close to a Pentium-M based Wintel box.
Battery times (from what I've read) are now approximately the same for Centrino (i.e. Pentium-M) and G4-based laptops. Actually, they might even be better with Wintel boxes: I keep seeing 4 to 5 hours running times in tests (something my TiBook 800 has never been able to achieve), so Apple has lost a big advantage here; an IBM ThinkPad T40 weighs in @ 2.5 kg (about the same as a 15" PB), and runs 6 hours (!) on battery. Luckily it is extremely expensive...
I really hope (but do not believe) that Moki will lose his bet -- especially since it's a win-win situation: he gets a 970 PowerBook, and so do we
You know something? If these new PowerBooks DON'T have the 970 (just a 1-1.2GHz G4 in the new "aluminized" 15-inch model and a rev. B 12-inch with a 1GHz G4 and one or some of the following: DVI, L3 cache, FireWire 800), there's really no reason they couldn't be unveiled this week, is there?
Say, on Tuesday? Apple has been loading up the Tuesday releases the past couple of months. If WWDC is all about Panther and merely TALK of the 970 and such, it wouldn't hurt anything to go ahead and release less-than-hoped-for G4 PowerBooks this week, right?
No sense doing it at WWDC, where people will be all hopped up and TOTALLY expecting a 970 PowerBook.
Hmmm...makes me wonder. Not out of the realm of possibility. Of course, if that's the case, then we know we won't see a 970 PowerBook until MWSF 2004 at the EARLIEST. So everyone, myself included, will have to decide some stuff: wait it out for 6 months? Get a nice new G4 1-1.2GHz aluminum 15" at the recently (and hopefully STILL) reduced prices? Say "screw it" and get an iBook and just revisit a 970 PowerBook sometime in mid-2004?
If indeed that's what happens (new PowerBooks are G4 instead of 970), here's what I'll probably do:
- get Rev. B 12" combo drive PowerBook (should be 1GHz and MAYBE 1MB L3 cache?) so I can "get mobile" right away (by mid-late July). That'll take me well into 2004 because my needs aren't extravagant. But, overall, I realize I'd probably enjoy 6-9 months on a G4-based laptop than a G3-based one.
- Give my Dad my iMac (so I've still got access to a SuperDrive if I need it AND I get to rack up another switcher...not looking forward to doing the eBay thing or dealing with strangers anyway).
- Starting in August, I simply continue with my plan of socking back $400-500/month
- Go into 2004 with a mighty chunk of saved cash ($3000, give or take, by January) and just continue doing so until the PowerBook goes to 970 (which, by then, will probably be a 1.4 or 1.6GHz model).
- I'll have the money to buy this 15" (maybe 17"?) 970 PowerBook outright.
- We'll have an AppleInsider raffle for my 12" PowerBook
I don't think it will happen just because they probably need more time to work on packing that stuff into a tigher package and keep it cool enough. That and they probably want the desktops to hoard the chip supply for the time being, not taking risks with supply in one channel/product.
Yeah. I was pretty firm on it being so (and, of course, would STILL love it to be true). But in the interest of a) living in reality and b) not setting myself up for dashed hopes, I'm not going to be crushed if the next 12" and 15" PowerBooks simply had nice 1GHz-plus G4s in them.
I can live with that. Certainly for 6-9 months, until the line does go to the new stuff.
I win either way, really.
The worst part? Another 6-9 months at 1024x768, I guess. Not the end of the world, but I can't wait to stretch out a bit and open every palette I have...just because I can.
Comments
Originally posted by Ensign Pulver
I agree with this aggressive view, but with a twist. The 12", 15" and 17" will all be upgraded to 970s at the same time in September (actually right after the back to school buying season, I'll explain in a minute.)
[snip]
All 970, all at once in September is an excellent Powerbook plan that protects initial G5 Power Mac sales while still making this the "year of the laptop."
I'm willing to bet you a PowerBook 970 that they don't appear this year. If I win, you buy me one. If I lose, you buy me one. Deal?
Originally posted by moki
I'm willing to bet you a PowerBook 970 that they don't appear this year. If I win, you buy me one. If I lose, you buy me one. Deal?
Sure, can I get 17 to 12 odds though? (If I win, you buy me a 17" and if you win, I'll buy you a 12")
Seriously, I'm really bummed that you're throwing cold water on my Powerbook projections. What is the alternative Moki? Is the 7457 real? Will we see 1.2 GHz+ G4s with a faster bus in the next Powerbook rev? If we're not getting 970s, what are we getting?
Originally posted by moki
I'm willing to bet you a PowerBook 970 that they don't appear this year. If I win, you buy me one. If I lose, you buy me one. Deal?
I have to agree with this guy.
--Alexis
I also hope moki is wrong this time around. My TiBook is seriously calling for retirement in 6 months or less. And if the towers get the 970 this year, I won't settle for less than über-970 performance for my TiBook replacement. I may be asking for too much, but I don't think a G4+ or whatever will cut it after we witness IBM's 970 and Panther.
* 970
Originally posted by moki
I'm willing to bet you a PowerBook 970 that they don't appear this year. If I win, you buy me one. If I lose, you buy me one. Deal?
Just like the Power Mac 970 wasn't going to appear before late 2003/early 2004, eh?
Says I while watching the whole AI forum back away from moki
Barto
Barto
Originally posted by haunebu
I don't think moki knows anything the rest of us Average Joes don't. If he does, why does he waste his time on these boards?
why do you waste your precious time on these boards? because you hate it? moki is a developer he needs to know and to anticipate on future developments. although he might know more than you and me, speculation is a creative process and he uses it for his work.
and it is fun to dwell around here
Originally posted by moki
I'm willing to bet you a PowerBook 970 that they don't appear this year. If I win, you buy me one. If I lose, you buy me one. Deal?
moki,
Isn't it remarkable that nobody reads the actual messages, too busy preparing their own speil I suppose.
Michael
Originally posted by philby
Really?
Good to hear, 'cause thats not at all what I've been reading lately, which is that the Pentium M and its chipset have been heavily optimized for mobile use by its Israeli developers (not Intel), and that it runs XP at the approx. double the speed compared MHz by MHz to a P4-M.
The Israeli developers work for Intel. Intel has a development center in Israel, and developing there is not different than developing at some plant.
Heavy optimization fro mobile use means low power consumption, nothing else. While it is true that MHz for MHz the P4-M is faster than regular P4, it is not anywhere near "double".
The Centerino chipset is good, make no mistake about it. But it is in no way revolutionary. It just improves certain aspects of the P4 to make it better suited for mobility.
I don't believe Apple is willing to see sales of the pbs to drop significantly.
Where is the upgrade to the pbs? 7447 seem nowhere to be seen and currently pbs already have the "fastest" G4 in them. There is no upgrade based around a G4.
Moki, what do you expect as upgrades?
If there is no 970 upgrade ready, why didn't Apple upgrade the pbs before? WWDC is focused on the 970 and Panther, an upgraded G4 pb would only distract people.
Or don't you even expect an upgrade?
well
at least...
i think i read the actual posts correctly
including moki's post.
Originally posted by gar
i think i read the actual posts correctly
including moki's post.
I'm not sure you did read it correctly. The important part in bold.
Moki said:
I'm willing to bet you a PowerBook 970 that they don't appear this year. If I win, you buy me one. If I lose, you buy me one.
This tells me that Powerbook 970s, or G5s, or whatever you want to call them are in the works, but major architecture changes for Apple laptops don't grow on trees. This fits in nicely with another quote from him about about hypertransport not working with G4s. I.e. all machines from Apple will be using the 970 at some point...just not this September. Perhaps we'll see a redesign of the case (exactly what's expected for the towers) when the chip debuts in all the PBs. If they're gonna put a 970 in PBs, then it'll go into all of them at the same time.
Originally posted by synp
While it is true that MHz for MHz the P4-M is faster than regular P4,
Not to be picky, but you certainly meant to say "MHz for MHz the PM (Pentium Mobile) is faster than regular P4-M (Pentium 4 Mobile)"? The P4-M is just a slightly less power-hungry version of Intels P4. The Pentium M(obile) @ 1.6 GHz has about half the Power usage, and is faster than, a P4-M @ 2.4 GHz.
Both are considerably faster than any current G4 PowerBook in computing-intensive tasks, such as 3-D rendering or video encoding, and even using the same GPU the 3-D performance of a PowerBook does not even come close to a Pentium-M based Wintel box.
Battery times (from what I've read) are now approximately the same for Centrino (i.e. Pentium-M) and G4-based laptops. Actually, they might even be better with Wintel boxes: I keep seeing 4 to 5 hours running times in tests (something my TiBook 800 has never been able to achieve), so Apple has lost a big advantage here; an IBM ThinkPad T40 weighs in @ 2.5 kg (about the same as a 15" PB), and runs 6 hours (!) on battery. Luckily it is extremely expensive...
I really hope (but do not believe) that Moki will lose his bet -- especially since it's a win-win situation: he gets a 970 PowerBook, and so do we
Originally posted by moki
I'm willing to bet you a PowerBook 970 that they don't appear this year. If I win, you buy me one. If I lose, you buy me one. Deal?
I just noticed the "heads I win, tails you lose" thing. I'm an idiot.
Say, on Tuesday? Apple has been loading up the Tuesday releases the past couple of months. If WWDC is all about Panther and merely TALK of the 970 and such, it wouldn't hurt anything to go ahead and release less-than-hoped-for G4 PowerBooks this week, right?
No sense doing it at WWDC, where people will be all hopped up and TOTALLY expecting a 970 PowerBook.
Hmmm...makes me wonder. Not out of the realm of possibility. Of course, if that's the case, then we know we won't see a 970 PowerBook until MWSF 2004 at the EARLIEST. So everyone, myself included, will have to decide some stuff: wait it out for 6 months? Get a nice new G4 1-1.2GHz aluminum 15" at the recently (and hopefully STILL) reduced prices? Say "screw it" and get an iBook and just revisit a 970 PowerBook sometime in mid-2004?
If indeed that's what happens (new PowerBooks are G4 instead of 970), here's what I'll probably do:
- get Rev. B 12" combo drive PowerBook (should be 1GHz and MAYBE 1MB L3 cache?) so I can "get mobile" right away (by mid-late July). That'll take me well into 2004 because my needs aren't extravagant. But, overall, I realize I'd probably enjoy 6-9 months on a G4-based laptop than a G3-based one.
- Give my Dad my iMac (so I've still got access to a SuperDrive if I need it AND I get to rack up another switcher...not looking forward to doing the eBay thing or dealing with strangers anyway).
- Starting in August, I simply continue with my plan of socking back $400-500/month
- Go into 2004 with a mighty chunk of saved cash ($3000, give or take, by January) and just continue doing so until the PowerBook goes to 970 (which, by then, will probably be a 1.4 or 1.6GHz model).
- I'll have the money to buy this 15" (maybe 17"?) 970 PowerBook outright.
- We'll have an AppleInsider raffle for my 12" PowerBook
I can live with that. Certainly for 6-9 months, until the line does go to the new stuff.
I win either way, really.
The worst part? Another 6-9 months at 1024x768, I guess. Not the end of the world, but I can't wait to stretch out a bit and open every palette I have...just because I can.
Originally posted by Ensign Pulver
I just noticed the "heads I win, tails you lose" thing. I'm an idiot.
You're not an idiot if you are a real Ensign, USN.
--Alexis