Folio

Enjoyable piece, as anytime DED mentions Tripp Mickle. My one concern is the Counterpoint graph on Q2 over three years. It shows China companies growth in profit share, mainly at Samsung expense— but also at Apple’s. This surprises me given the success of IPhone ASPs with X rollout. Unsure if this data quarter snapshot is an anomaly or a trend.

"An often-heard refrain from Apple is "The customer is not our product," in that the company does not collect then use data for advertising purposes, instead aiming for a more transparent approach."

Perhaps AI needs to put an asterisk with such statements now. True, for the most part. But sign on for Apple News or new iOS 12 Stocks app and you'll read about how usage helps target advertisements. This is an area rife with potential conflict for a company who chiefly makes money from HW, in that Apple can make it impossible for users not to see advertisements. If Apple embeds an ad that takes up 1/3 of the screen while you are reading an article, that kind of defeats the purpose of having a large screen for viewing. This is another reason I'm not enamored with Apple's new Stock app.

While a minor nit at present, as Apple pushes services, this issue could become a larger concern.

I'd like to know how this analyst derived $12B, which is between 3-4 times current estimates. Google's Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC) have recently leveled over last several quarters if memory serves. If Google's TAC suddenly doubles or triples, it's stock price, all things equal, would tank. Just one reason I'm highly skeptical of this Rod Hall estimate, at least as it's presented here. Anyway if this is true, let's hope Apple divulges more about this deal in its privacy documents, like exactly how far is Google infiltrating the Apple ecosystem, regardless of a user's browser choices. For instance, what exactly would Google glean from Apple's Spotlight searches of one's personal files and documents?

Longer replacement cycles have clear benefits that analysts sometime miss: better durability retains existing customers and brings in new ones. Spreading costs of phone over more years, allows Apple to increase iPhone prices, sell more Watches, AirPods, deluxe charging mats, etc. All this has a multiplying effect on Services.

Nice story. What really impressed me was 383 day streak making your move goal, despite weather, etc etc! (So long as you don’t have it set at 50 active cals ;-)