bwik

Spotify makes an interesting argument.  If HBO Now was downloaded from Apple (a fairly small service by Apple), does it mean Apple collects 30% of revenue for the first year and 15% thereafter?  If so, that seems excessive, just for providing a download portal to its users.  Apple could then compete with HBO on a lower cost structure and do its own shows, which apparently it is doing.  Netflix, same?  How about Amazon Prime revenue? 

There is precedent to suggest that Apple can't simply charge a 30% toll on all the revenue producing activities that happen across iOS.  Apple has some arguments that it created the platform.  The literature on railroad competition provides many examples of monopolistic pricing that had to be made illegal.  Usually the solution is to remove the barrier to entry, or if that is impractical (as building totally duplicate rail lines is somewhat impractical), to allow multiple carriers (= other App Stores) on the platform.

Spotify may be right that the current status quo on iOS App Store may be illegal.  Just my opinion as a hobbyist on these topics, not a professional.

Let's assume Apple revenue declines 5% per year for the next 10 years.  Now how much employment growth will there be?

Even expecting the current revenue level 10 years out is a massive task for Apple.  It is far from certain.