Next time I see the neighborhood bootleg guy, I know he will have Transformers and Harry Potter. I'll have to ask if he has any Steve McQueen movies. My guess though is that he will have no idea who Steve McQueen is (or was).
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep
Not really there are guys who make nice covers and bring Lets say A triple steve mcqueen disc
with 3 movies with steve in them
or maybe a season of nevada smith with steve mcqueen
3 disc for 10 bucks > old movie quality is very good .
new movie quality is iffy at best unless its a screener.
I work in retail and the locale I work at recently exxpanded. The video section with DVDs and Blu-Ray discs is positively massive.
Just because there are alternatives to optical discs does not mean consumers will turn their backs on a format that they are comfortable with. I think that there is a large enough audience growing in absolute numbers that more than one format will be supported at viable levels. Everybody isn't going to access movie files via let's say flash drives any more than we'll wake up one morning to find the entire driving population in North America has a Toyota Corolla in the driveway.
Certainly it's a mystery why it is that some seem intent on the entire world embracing whatever technology they favour. Blu-Ray isn't going to be the main means of sharing large digital files. It is going to be one of a number of technologies that will be significant enough that Apple can not ignore it.
Next time I see the neighborhood bootleg guy, I know he will have Transformers and Harry Potter. I'll have to ask if he has any Steve McQueen movies. My guess though is that he will have no idea who Steve McQueen is (or was).
Tell it loud
Tell it proud
all about cool hand luke or bullet and THE GREAT ESCAPE
since i tunes rentals are so cheap i am a gone good guy
I work in retail and the locale I work at recently exxpanded. The video section with DVDs and Blu-Ray discs is positively massive.
You have to take into account that you are seeing the people who buy DVD, you don' see the people who don't.
Also your retail store is enjoying a time when we have fewer media retail stores than we had twenty years ago.
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Just because there are alternatives to optical discs does not mean consumers will turn their backs on a format that they are comfortable with.
I agree. People are not going to suddenly stop using optical media tommorow. But sales clearly show optical media is not a growing market. It's reached it's peak and will not grow any further. Optical media likely has another 10 years, but it will slowly fade away. Nothing lasts.
If you were to go back to the 70's and tell audiophiles most people would not be buying vinyl records in 10 years, they would have told you you were crazy.
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Blu-Ray isn't going to be the main means of sharing large digital files. It is going to be one of a number of technologies that will be significant enough that Apple can not ignore it.
If you look at it objectively, Blu-ray offers Apple what they don't want, more DRM. While not really offering any great advantage to the end user. You don't need Blu-ray to watch high quality video on a computer. Hard Drives and USB flash drives offer larger/faster storage at a fraction of the price of Blu-ray.
Who said DL files ?? A 5-10 g usb stick will do. And the mini players are not yet here but RIGHT NOW I can take a raw hd movie file and play it un converted back on my MBP/DVD /QT player in fabulous quality . RIGHT NOW your elephant dvd player has been pushed aside in histories' river of old obsolete toys.
BD may live but the discs it comes on are dead. You just don't know it yet . THE MBA was the opening salvo .
I don't understand why you seem to think movies will come on USB sticks. Does a BD take up too much shelf space? I can't say I've ever had that problem. The only reason to change from BD would be to boost quality even further, but until 100"+ displays are common place that would really be a waste of time. BD is already stunning quality and much beyond that is diminishing returns.
The way I see it downloads are the FUTURE, as in, 10 years in the future. Until then BD will reign as the sole HD physical format and I don't have a problem with that. Maybe you should try watching a few of those little shiny discs on a good HDTV and you'll change your mind. The picture and sound quality is out of this world.
Blu-ray unable to halt DVD sales slump. Despite four-fold increase in BD spend to $482m, and strong video sales in China, India and Russia, Screen Digest predicts only modest growth in 2010
Blu-ray players have now approached $200 with features that would have cost 3X as much 2 years ago. Blu-ray will make major penetration this year. Expect friends and family to buy now everytime they upgrade a DVD player to their new HDMI ready flat screen TVs. 'The future is Blu."
You just cannot download or stream the quality of a Blu-Ray film. It is not practical. I watch HD movies on ATT U-verse, and it is indeed very nice. No way it is anywhere close to Blu-Ray quality! I plan on getting a home theater system centered around Blu-Ray.
You have to take into account that you are seeing the people who buy DVD, you don' see the people who don't.
Also your retail store is enjoying a time when we have fewer media retail stores than we had twenty years ago.
I agree. People are not going to suddenly stop using optical media tommorow. But sales clearly show optical media is not a growing market. It's reached it's peak and will not grow any further. Optical media likely has another 10 years, but it will slowly fade away. Nothing lasts.
If you were to go back to the 70's and tell audiophiles most people would not be buying vinyl records in 10 years, they would have told you you were crazy.
If you look at it objectively, Blu-ray offers Apple what they don't want, more DRM. While not really offering any great advantage to the end user. You don't need Blu-ray to watch high quality video on a computer. Hard Drives and USB flash drives offer larger/faster storage at a fraction of the price of Blu-ray.
As a result of a growing population, even if the percentage of movie sales that are purchased via optical media declines, that doesn't necessarily translate to a drop in the volume of said media that is sold. If the economies of scale are such that the number of DVDs purchased three or fours years ago allows studios to make money, then why would a similar volume, albeit representing a smaller piece of the overall pie, represent a problem. So to me that implies that optical media isn't going to disappear any time soon. As such, Apple simply can't ignore that. Also, in terms of using optical storage with the capacity of Blu-Ray with a computer system, I see that as something that will be of value. Blu-Ray isn't just about getting access to the latest Hollywood fare. It represents a needed leap to accommodate the needs of consumers in the age of HD video. I want a physical medium that everyone can relate to. I don't want someone who, for instance, doesn't own a computer (believe it or not such people do exist) to be denied the chance to have a format in their hands that they can easily use. Blu-Ray doesn't require much technical savvy to use. Put the disc in a player like you do a DVD and hit play. So if I make a video that I want to share with a family member, an optical disc makes sense. It's also the case that if you want to give that person a permanent copy, an optical disc makes sense. In short, I see the likelihood of Blu-Ray players winding up in more homes than I do SD readers. Right now I'd say that I can't think of a single person I know who doesn't have a DVD player but, as I said, folks who don't have a computer, those I do know.
In Apple's defence, Blu-Ray is still a long way from taking over from DVD. But people who simply would never think to buy a computer will, in time, wind up with a Blu-Ray player. And unlike some, I'm not comfortable with the notion of trusting many of my files to a electronic device exclusively. When possible, I like to back up with optical media and DVD just doesn't cut it any more with the massive files we deal with now.
I liken the situation re Blu-Ray and competing means of storing data to what happened to radio when television came along. Radio is still with us. Television also didn't bring about the demise of the movie theatre. Yes, it's true, VCRs pretty much wiped out drive-ins but I think assuming no one will be using optical media 10 years from now is a mistake. I'm not saying that's impossible but on the other hand, it's not accurate to claim that all technologies disappear when other options gain traction. Think of it as an expansion of options which is a good thing, I think.
Blu-ray unable to halt DVD sales slump. Despite four-fold increase in BD spend to $482m, and strong video sales in China, India and Russia, Screen Digest predicts only modest growth in 2010
The headline writer, as usual, kind of misrepresented what was said. The quote in the story attributed to a Screen Digest analyst is as follows, "However, despite consumers' interest in the high definition format and demand for packaged media, the current challenging economic climate means that we don't expect BD to be driving even minimal sector growth until 2010."
I don't see any prediction to the effect that growth in 2010 will be modest. Rather, the analyst is saying that whatever growth will be experienced, modest or otherwise, will not be happening in 2009 because people are worried about the economy and hence reluctant to spend.
To simplify for the heading, someone projected a prediction onto said analyst which that person didn't provide. Happens all the time which is why you have to be careful not to come to any conclusions based on headings and read the story itself, preferably start to finish.
As a result of a growing population, even if the percentage of movie sales that are purchased via optical media declines, that doesn't necessarily translate to a drop in the volume of said media that is sold. If the economies of scale are such that the number of DVDs purchased three or fours years ago allows studios to make money, then why would a similar volume, albeit representing a smaller piece of the overall pie, represent a problem. So to me that implies that optical media isn't going to disappear any time soon. As such, Apple simply can't ignore that.
You are right media consumption is growing. The problem for any one format is that there are many more ways to consume media than there have ever been before.
Business is about growth, business is not about keeping the status quo. If you stagnate in business you will eventually be out of business. That is how the studios are looking at the situation. Optical media sales are stagnant.
Along with that there are many other media distributors that are competing with optical media for consumer attention. They will continue to develop new ways to gain as large an audience as they can.
Its only inevitable that other forms of media distribution will become good enough, cheap enough, and convenient enough to make optical media less desirable to use.
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Also, in terms of using optical storage with the capacity of Blu-Ray with a computer system, I see that as something that will be of value. In short, I see the likelihood of Blu-Ray players winding up in more homes than I do SD readers. Right now I'd say that I can't think of a single person I know who doesn't have a DVD player but, as I said, folks who don't have a computer, those I do know.
50GB Blu-ray disc, $12.50 - $.25 per gigabyte
500GB Hard Data Drive, $90 - $.18 per gigabyte
I went to look for current prices of BR discs, they have come down a lot. It used to be as much as $22 for a 50GB BR disc. Price had to come down because they aren't selling well.
The HDD is preferable for many reasons. Ten times more storage, cheaper per GB, faster data rate, rewritable, you can plug a hard drive into any properly formated computer. The far majority of the installed computer base cannot support Blu-ray.
If they'd gotten Blu-ray out back in 2004, it would have been more successful. It would have been riding the success of DVD, it could have been the first solution for wide HD distribution. It would have offered a more affordable storage solution, back then a 500GB Hard Drive cost around $800.
SD is already far more ubiquitous than Blu-ray. The hundreds of millions of people who own point and shoot cameras use SD cards.
People who don't own computers cannot use Blu-ray for data storage either.
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I liken the situation re Blu-Ray and competing means of storing data to what happened to radio when television came along. Radio is still with us. Television also didn't bring about the demise of the movie theatre. Yes, it's true, VCRs pretty much wiped out drive-ins but I think assuming no one will be using optical media 10 years from now is a mistake. I'm not saying that's impossible but on the other hand, it's not accurate to claim that all technologies disappear when other options gain traction. Think of it as an expansion of options which is a good thing, I think.
These analogies you make aren't equal they are entirely different situations. Radio, movies, and television all adjusted to give something unique that the other could not offer. People primarily listen to radio in their cars. Movie theaters still work because few people can have a 40-60 foot screen in their house.
Storage media always change. I'm not sure why you expect things to freeze with optical disc.
Reel to reel audio tape, vinyl records, 8 tracks, cassette tape, compact disc, digital file.
35mm film, Ampex Quad video tape, Beta Max, VHS, DVD, Blu-ray, digital file
Floppy disc, 3/4" floppy disc, compact disc, DVD, Hard Data Drive, Solid State Drive, Cloud Computing
I don't understand why you seem to think movies will come on USB sticks. Does a BD take up too much shelf space?
Enough . I only predict that media storage will be so cheap and so large that it will push dvd players to the back waters . I have about 300 dvd discs at home or more . It does take up room . But much smaller that VHS tapes .
You are right media consumption is growing. The problem for any one format is that there are many more ways to consume media than there have ever been before.
Business is about growth, business is not about keeping the status quo. If you stagnate in business you will eventually be out of business. That is how the studios are looking at the situation. Optical media sales are stagnant.
50GB Blu-ray disc, $12.50 - $.25 per gigabyte
500GB Hard Data Drive, $90 - $.18 per gigabyte
SD is already far more ubiquitous than Blu-ray. The hundreds of millions of people who own point and shoot cameras use SD cards.
People who don't own computers cannot use Blu-ray for data storage either.
These analogies you make aren't equal they are entirely different situations. Radio, movies, and television all adjusted to give something unique that the other could not offer. People primarily listen to radio in their cars. Movie theaters still work because few people can have a 40-60 foot screen in their house.
It's not just about growth. It's mainly about a viable business model. If Ferrari can only make a handful of cars, do they not bother because they can't outsell Ford? Clearly there is money to be made in building an exotic sports car and hence somebody is doing it. If millions of Blu-Ray discs are sold each year and doing so makes money, it will happen. If studios don't convince as many people to replace their DVDs with the same title in Blu-Ray as they did back when we transitioned from VHS to DVD, that's too bad for the studios but I hardly think they'll turn their backs on Blu-Ray as a result. They'll adjust their expectations and keep on cranking the Blu-Rays out as long as it makes them a profit, however modest. Besides, whatever way movies are distributed, legally of course, the studios make money and they stay in business. If Blu-Rays represent one of many means by which they can make money, it's still going to be a revenue source and something they will continue to produce.
In regards to the cost factor, I hope you realize that soon enough Blu-Ray blank media will be dirt cheap. Besides, if I want to give one home movie to a relative, do you really think it's practical to put that movie on a hard drive and let them keep the hard drive? Clearly for a one-off situation a hard drive is overkill, not to mention ridiculously expensive. I'd rather burn the movie onto a $1 Blu-Ray disc (they will eventually be that cheap).
In regards to SDs being so common, how many of the people who have SD-based cameras have computers to use with them? I'd say quite a few people head down to their local film processing joint, get on a kiosk and produce prints directly off the SD, no home computer involved. Also, if you're trying to watch true HD, not just any computer will do. Processing HD of Blu-Ray grade is a very demanding task that requires higher grade equipment.
Also, I think you're missing the point when saying people without computers can't use Blu-Ray disks for storage. The point is, there are uses for optical media and ones for hard drives. They are used for different things. You can't compare the Blu Ray vs. SD vs. hard drive vs. download scenario as if there has to be only one solution that everybody has to embrace. This isn't a case of CDs replacing LPs or DVDs replacing VHS tapes. This is a case of consumers being presented with a variety of options, each with their own set of strengths and weaknesses.
By the way, I suspect you're quite wrong in assuming radio is seldom listened to away from the car. You need to keep in mind that you do not represent the way that humanity uses technology any more than I or anyone else does. There are numerous technologies available to us and what's available is growing by the day. My argument is that there's room enough for assorted technologies and not just what you or I think has to be the way to go.
I can only guess that Blu-Ray will be a part of the landscape for quite some time. It will not be what DVD was, exactly, but it's not going to disappear in the next three or four years either.
Storage media always change. I'm not sure why you expect things to freeze with optical disc.
Reel to reel audio tape, vinyl records, 8 tracks, cassette tape, compact disc, digital file.
35mm film, Ampex Quad video tape, Beta Max, VHS, DVD, Blu-ray, digital file
Floppy disc, 3/4" floppy disc, compact disc, DVD, Hard Data Drive, Solid State Drive, Cloud Computing
Storage media will change if there is a good reason to. When going from VHS to DVD, I got better picture quality, media that didn't degrade over time, and it was cheaper (at least for a while with online stores). So what am I getting by going from DVD to another storage media? Better picture. Which media type? Well, Blu-ray lets me play all the DVD's which I already own. So by not having to buy the movies I already own, Blu-ray is the cheaper one for me.
In the future, our kids may not have any DVD's. Then the change for them would be much easier because they won't have to re-buy their movies. By then, maybe we will have addressed the bandwidth issue too.
It's not just about growth. It's mainly about a viable business model. If Ferrari can only make a handful of cars, do they not bother because they can't outsell Ford?
Television and film studios are not Ferrari, they are Ford. Media is a commodity, not premium performance product. Studios are owned by publicly traded conglomerates and they are expected to grow. That is their business model.
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If millions of Blu-Ray discs are sold each year and doing so makes money, it will happen. If studios don't convince as many people to replace their DVDs with the same title in Blu-Ray as they did back when we transitioned from VHS to DVD, that's too bad for the studios but I hardly think they'll turn their backs on Blu-Ray as a result. They'll adjust their expectations and keep on cranking the Blu-Rays out as long as it makes them a profit, however modest.
I don't disagree. Studios are going to make Blu-ray for a while. My point is that their loyalty will go with what attracts the largest audience and what sells the most.
Quote:
In regards to the cost factor, I hope you realize that soon enough Blu-Ray blank media will be dirt cheap. Besides, if I want to give one home movie to a relative, do you really think it's practical to put that movie on a hard drive and let them keep the hard drive? Clearly for a one-off situation a hard drive is overkill, not to mention ridiculously expensive. I'd rather burn the movie onto a $1 Blu-Ray disc (they will eventually be that cheap).
You are mixing the argument. I'm strictly talking about using Blu-ray for data storage. Taking a movie to someones house is a different matter.
Yes the cost is going down. Still hard drives offer many other advantages as storage over optical media.
Quote:
In regards to SDs being so common, how many of the people who have SD-based cameras have computers to use with them? I'd say quite a few people head down to their local film processing joint, get on a kiosk and produce prints directly off the SD, no home computer involved. Also, if you're trying to watch true HD, not just any computer will do. Processing HD of Blu-Ray grade is a very demanding task that requires higher grade equipment.
I'm not arguing how people use SD cards. My point is that hundreds of millions of people already use them.
The vast majority of people don't care about watching the best 1080 HD. As long as the picture looks reasonably good, most peoe are satisfied.
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Also, I think you're missing the point when saying people without computers can't use Blu-Ray disks for storage. The point is, there are uses for optical media and ones for hard drives. They are used for different things. You can't compare the Blu Ray vs. SD vs. hard drive vs. download scenario as if there has to be only one solution that everybody has to embrace. This isn't a case of CDs replacing LPs or DVDs replacing VHS tapes. This is a case of consumers being presented with a variety of options, each with their own set of strengths and weaknesses.
The reason you don't like the comparison is because it clearly is not in favor of optical media. Yes the different forms of storage have different advantages and different uses. But it's common for one type to take away from the other.
CD's replaced LP's because people stopped buying LP's. DVD replaced VHS because people stopped buying VHS. People were given a choice. It's no different from how people can choose Blu-ray or not.
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By the way, I suspect you're quite wrong in assuming radio is seldom listened to away from the car. You need to keep in mind that you do not represent the way that humanity uses technology any more than I or anyone else does.
No I'm not wrong. Radio's prime hours are called radio drive time. Radio drive time is around 7AM to 10AM in the morning when people are driving to work. And 5PM to 8PM in the evening when people are driving home. This information is easily available, you can look it up.
Going with your point what motivation is there to change from DVD to BR? BR is not the leap in quality that DVD was from VHS.
I cannot agree with tour assertion BR is cheap it's among the most expensive ways to watch a movie.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pt123
Storage media will change if there is a good reason to. When going from VHS to DVD, I got better picture quality, media that didn't degrade over time, and it was cheaper (at least for a while with online stores). So what am I getting by going from DVD to another storage media? Better picture. Which media type? Well, Blu-ray lets me play all the DVD's which I already own. So by not having to buy the movies I already own, Blu-ray is the cheaper one for me.
Going with your point what motivation is there to change from DVD to BR? BR is not the leap in quality that DVD was from VHS.
I cannot agree with tour assertion BR is cheap it's among the most expensive ways to watch a movie.
It is a cheaper overall solution when factoring in all the DVD's I already have. With a Blu-ray player, I get use of all my existing DVD movies. With any other type of media storage without the disc player, I would have to pay to start my movie collection.
It's one solution, I would not consider it the cheapest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pt123
It is a cheaper overall solution when factoring in all the DVD's I already have. With a Blu-ray player, I get use of all my existing DVD movies. With any other type of media storage without the disc player, I would have to pay to start my movie collection.
Television and film studios are not Ferrari, they are Ford. Media is a commodity, not premium performance product. Studios are owned by publicly traded conglomerates and they are expected to grow. That is their business model.
I don't disagree. Studios are going to make Blu-ray for a while. My point is that their loyalty will go with what attracts the largest audience and what sells the most.
You are mixing the argument. I'm strictly talking about using Blu-ray for data storage. Taking a movie to someones house is a different matter.
Yes the cost is going down. Still hard drives offer many other advantages as storage over optical media.
I'm not arguing how people use SD cards. My point is that hundreds of millions of people already use them.
The vast majority of people don't care about watching the best 1080 HD. As long as the picture looks reasonably good, most peoe are satisfied.
The reason you don't like the comparison is because it clearly is not in favor of optical media. Yes the different forms of storage have different advantages and different uses. But it's common for one type to take away from the other.
CD's replaced LP's because people stopped buying LP's. DVD replaced VHS because people stopped buying VHS. People were given a choice. It's no different from how people can choose Blu-ray or not.
Look, you're making this a lot more complicated than it is. Companies are in the business of making money.
If there is money in Blu-Ray, the studios will produce them. It's silly to suggest they'll stop producing Blu-Ray discs if the growth they'd hoped for fails to materialize. After all, the American carmakers, Ford included, didn't stop making cars even when their sales went into the toilet.
In regards to the role Blu-Ray can play, clearly it's because there are times when you want to use optical media and not a 500g hard drive that there is room for both and a few other formats besides. People who buy movies, be they DVD or Blu-Ray, want such items so that they can watch a film multiple times and they like to collect movies. Professional digital media is very stable. I have CDs purchased in the 1980s that work just fine to this day. How many hard drives around today are going to be still running flawlessly in 2029?
Also, let's be clear on one thiing. If what you're talking about is sub-standard video, you don't need Blu-Ray or any other new technology. DVD is a mature, cheap technology that you can certainly use if quality is not a consideration. But that's not relevant to this discussion.
In regards to one format replacing another, right from the start it was intended for DVD to replace VHS. It was not an accident. First there was VHS which had its day and years later along came DVD. In time the superior format took over. Both formats were designed to perform the same basic function but one was better than the other. If you have a hard drive in a computer it can store movies, just as they can be stored on a Blu-Ray disc, but they are intended to play a different role. It's not one or the other. Each is better suited to varied uses. Strangely you think there is no way that different technologies can co-exist. Yet we have seen such co-existence in the entertainment field for many years. Movies have been with us for years, as have radio, television, and more recently the Internet. The reason cinema and radio have survived the arrival of television is that each has a place in our lives. I see the same happening in regards to various forms of digital media. Will there be overlap? Absolutely. Certainly that means some canibalizing. But this isn't DVD replacing VHS all over again. That was a transition by design. Quite a different thing.
Comments
Not really there are guys who make nice covers and bring Lets say A triple steve mcqueen disc
with 3 movies with steve in them
or maybe a season of nevada smith with steve mcqueen
3 disc for 10 bucks > old movie quality is very good .
new movie quality is iffy at best unless its a screener.
Just because there are alternatives to optical discs does not mean consumers will turn their backs on a format that they are comfortable with. I think that there is a large enough audience growing in absolute numbers that more than one format will be supported at viable levels. Everybody isn't going to access movie files via let's say flash drives any more than we'll wake up one morning to find the entire driving population in North America has a Toyota Corolla in the driveway.
Certainly it's a mystery why it is that some seem intent on the entire world embracing whatever technology they favour. Blu-Ray isn't going to be the main means of sharing large digital files. It is going to be one of a number of technologies that will be significant enough that Apple can not ignore it.
Next time I see the neighborhood bootleg guy, I know he will have Transformers and Harry Potter. I'll have to ask if he has any Steve McQueen movies. My guess though is that he will have no idea who Steve McQueen is (or was).
Tell it loud
Tell it proud
all about cool hand luke or bullet and THE GREAT ESCAPE
since i tunes rentals are so cheap i am a gone good guy
I work in retail and the locale I work at recently exxpanded. The video section with DVDs and Blu-Ray discs is positively massive.
You have to take into account that you are seeing the people who buy DVD, you don' see the people who don't.
Also your retail store is enjoying a time when we have fewer media retail stores than we had twenty years ago.
Just because there are alternatives to optical discs does not mean consumers will turn their backs on a format that they are comfortable with.
I agree. People are not going to suddenly stop using optical media tommorow. But sales clearly show optical media is not a growing market. It's reached it's peak and will not grow any further. Optical media likely has another 10 years, but it will slowly fade away. Nothing lasts.
If you were to go back to the 70's and tell audiophiles most people would not be buying vinyl records in 10 years, they would have told you you were crazy.
Blu-Ray isn't going to be the main means of sharing large digital files. It is going to be one of a number of technologies that will be significant enough that Apple can not ignore it.
If you look at it objectively, Blu-ray offers Apple what they don't want, more DRM. While not really offering any great advantage to the end user. You don't need Blu-ray to watch high quality video on a computer. Hard Drives and USB flash drives offer larger/faster storage at a fraction of the price of Blu-ray.
Right and that's why an SD slot finally- mid 2009?
Don't forget copy and paste
You don't need Blu-ray to watch high quality video on a computer.
True but I'd like to store data on Blu. 48GB. The cloud and disks aren't safe. And they're slow.
Who said DL files ?? A 5-10 g usb stick will do. And the mini players are not yet here but RIGHT NOW I can take a raw hd movie file and play it un converted back on my MBP/DVD /QT player in fabulous quality . RIGHT NOW your elephant dvd player has been pushed aside in histories' river of old obsolete toys.
BD may live but the discs it comes on are dead. You just don't know it yet . THE MBA was the opening salvo .
I don't understand why you seem to think movies will come on USB sticks. Does a BD take up too much shelf space? I can't say I've ever had that problem. The only reason to change from BD would be to boost quality even further, but until 100"+ displays are common place that would really be a waste of time. BD is already stunning quality and much beyond that is diminishing returns.
The way I see it downloads are the FUTURE, as in, 10 years in the future. Until then BD will reign as the sole HD physical format and I don't have a problem with that. Maybe you should try watching a few of those little shiny discs on a good HDTV and you'll change your mind. The picture and sound quality is out of this world.
http://www.screendigest.com/press/re...2009/view.html
Blu-ray players have now approached $200 with features that would have cost 3X as much 2 years ago. Blu-ray will make major penetration this year. Expect friends and family to buy now everytime they upgrade a DVD player to their new HDMI ready flat screen TVs. 'The future is Blu."
You just cannot download or stream the quality of a Blu-Ray film. It is not practical. I watch HD movies on ATT U-verse, and it is indeed very nice. No way it is anywhere close to Blu-Ray quality! I plan on getting a home theater system centered around Blu-Ray.
You have to take into account that you are seeing the people who buy DVD, you don' see the people who don't.
Also your retail store is enjoying a time when we have fewer media retail stores than we had twenty years ago.
I agree. People are not going to suddenly stop using optical media tommorow. But sales clearly show optical media is not a growing market. It's reached it's peak and will not grow any further. Optical media likely has another 10 years, but it will slowly fade away. Nothing lasts.
If you were to go back to the 70's and tell audiophiles most people would not be buying vinyl records in 10 years, they would have told you you were crazy.
If you look at it objectively, Blu-ray offers Apple what they don't want, more DRM. While not really offering any great advantage to the end user. You don't need Blu-ray to watch high quality video on a computer. Hard Drives and USB flash drives offer larger/faster storage at a fraction of the price of Blu-ray.
As a result of a growing population, even if the percentage of movie sales that are purchased via optical media declines, that doesn't necessarily translate to a drop in the volume of said media that is sold. If the economies of scale are such that the number of DVDs purchased three or fours years ago allows studios to make money, then why would a similar volume, albeit representing a smaller piece of the overall pie, represent a problem. So to me that implies that optical media isn't going to disappear any time soon. As such, Apple simply can't ignore that. Also, in terms of using optical storage with the capacity of Blu-Ray with a computer system, I see that as something that will be of value. Blu-Ray isn't just about getting access to the latest Hollywood fare. It represents a needed leap to accommodate the needs of consumers in the age of HD video. I want a physical medium that everyone can relate to. I don't want someone who, for instance, doesn't own a computer (believe it or not such people do exist) to be denied the chance to have a format in their hands that they can easily use. Blu-Ray doesn't require much technical savvy to use. Put the disc in a player like you do a DVD and hit play. So if I make a video that I want to share with a family member, an optical disc makes sense. It's also the case that if you want to give that person a permanent copy, an optical disc makes sense. In short, I see the likelihood of Blu-Ray players winding up in more homes than I do SD readers. Right now I'd say that I can't think of a single person I know who doesn't have a DVD player but, as I said, folks who don't have a computer, those I do know.
In Apple's defence, Blu-Ray is still a long way from taking over from DVD. But people who simply would never think to buy a computer will, in time, wind up with a Blu-Ray player. And unlike some, I'm not comfortable with the notion of trusting many of my files to a electronic device exclusively. When possible, I like to back up with optical media and DVD just doesn't cut it any more with the massive files we deal with now.
I liken the situation re Blu-Ray and competing means of storing data to what happened to radio when television came along. Radio is still with us. Television also didn't bring about the demise of the movie theatre. Yes, it's true, VCRs pretty much wiped out drive-ins but I think assuming no one will be using optical media 10 years from now is a mistake. I'm not saying that's impossible but on the other hand, it's not accurate to claim that all technologies disappear when other options gain traction. Think of it as an expansion of options which is a good thing, I think.
Blu-ray unable to halt DVD sales slump. Despite four-fold increase in BD spend to $482m, and strong video sales in China, India and Russia, Screen Digest predicts only modest growth in 2010
http://www.screendigest.com/press/re...2009/view.html
The headline writer, as usual, kind of misrepresented what was said. The quote in the story attributed to a Screen Digest analyst is as follows, "However, despite consumers' interest in the high definition format and demand for packaged media, the current challenging economic climate means that we don't expect BD to be driving even minimal sector growth until 2010."
I don't see any prediction to the effect that growth in 2010 will be modest. Rather, the analyst is saying that whatever growth will be experienced, modest or otherwise, will not be happening in 2009 because people are worried about the economy and hence reluctant to spend.
To simplify for the heading, someone projected a prediction onto said analyst which that person didn't provide. Happens all the time which is why you have to be careful not to come to any conclusions based on headings and read the story itself, preferably start to finish.
As a result of a growing population, even if the percentage of movie sales that are purchased via optical media declines, that doesn't necessarily translate to a drop in the volume of said media that is sold. If the economies of scale are such that the number of DVDs purchased three or fours years ago allows studios to make money, then why would a similar volume, albeit representing a smaller piece of the overall pie, represent a problem. So to me that implies that optical media isn't going to disappear any time soon. As such, Apple simply can't ignore that.
You are right media consumption is growing. The problem for any one format is that there are many more ways to consume media than there have ever been before.
Business is about growth, business is not about keeping the status quo. If you stagnate in business you will eventually be out of business. That is how the studios are looking at the situation. Optical media sales are stagnant.
Along with that there are many other media distributors that are competing with optical media for consumer attention. They will continue to develop new ways to gain as large an audience as they can.
Its only inevitable that other forms of media distribution will become good enough, cheap enough, and convenient enough to make optical media less desirable to use.
Also, in terms of using optical storage with the capacity of Blu-Ray with a computer system, I see that as something that will be of value. In short, I see the likelihood of Blu-Ray players winding up in more homes than I do SD readers. Right now I'd say that I can't think of a single person I know who doesn't have a DVD player but, as I said, folks who don't have a computer, those I do know.
50GB Blu-ray disc, $12.50 - $.25 per gigabyte
500GB Hard Data Drive, $90 - $.18 per gigabyte
I went to look for current prices of BR discs, they have come down a lot. It used to be as much as $22 for a 50GB BR disc. Price had to come down because they aren't selling well.
The HDD is preferable for many reasons. Ten times more storage, cheaper per GB, faster data rate, rewritable, you can plug a hard drive into any properly formated computer. The far majority of the installed computer base cannot support Blu-ray.
If they'd gotten Blu-ray out back in 2004, it would have been more successful. It would have been riding the success of DVD, it could have been the first solution for wide HD distribution. It would have offered a more affordable storage solution, back then a 500GB Hard Drive cost around $800.
SD is already far more ubiquitous than Blu-ray. The hundreds of millions of people who own point and shoot cameras use SD cards.
People who don't own computers cannot use Blu-ray for data storage either.
I liken the situation re Blu-Ray and competing means of storing data to what happened to radio when television came along. Radio is still with us. Television also didn't bring about the demise of the movie theatre. Yes, it's true, VCRs pretty much wiped out drive-ins but I think assuming no one will be using optical media 10 years from now is a mistake. I'm not saying that's impossible but on the other hand, it's not accurate to claim that all technologies disappear when other options gain traction. Think of it as an expansion of options which is a good thing, I think.
These analogies you make aren't equal they are entirely different situations. Radio, movies, and television all adjusted to give something unique that the other could not offer. People primarily listen to radio in their cars. Movie theaters still work because few people can have a 40-60 foot screen in their house.
Storage media always change. I'm not sure why you expect things to freeze with optical disc.
Reel to reel audio tape, vinyl records, 8 tracks, cassette tape, compact disc, digital file.
35mm film, Ampex Quad video tape, Beta Max, VHS, DVD, Blu-ray, digital file
Floppy disc, 3/4" floppy disc, compact disc, DVD, Hard Data Drive, Solid State Drive, Cloud Computing
I don't understand why you seem to think movies will come on USB sticks. Does a BD take up too much shelf space?
Enough . I only predict that media storage will be so cheap and so large that it will push dvd players to the back waters . I have about 300 dvd discs at home or more . It does take up room . But much smaller that VHS tapes .
BD/HD will live in digital form .
PEAC E
9
You are right media consumption is growing. The problem for any one format is that there are many more ways to consume media than there have ever been before.
Business is about growth, business is not about keeping the status quo. If you stagnate in business you will eventually be out of business. That is how the studios are looking at the situation. Optical media sales are stagnant.
50GB Blu-ray disc, $12.50 - $.25 per gigabyte
500GB Hard Data Drive, $90 - $.18 per gigabyte
SD is already far more ubiquitous than Blu-ray. The hundreds of millions of people who own point and shoot cameras use SD cards.
People who don't own computers cannot use Blu-ray for data storage either.
These analogies you make aren't equal they are entirely different situations. Radio, movies, and television all adjusted to give something unique that the other could not offer. People primarily listen to radio in their cars. Movie theaters still work because few people can have a 40-60 foot screen in their house.
It's not just about growth. It's mainly about a viable business model. If Ferrari can only make a handful of cars, do they not bother because they can't outsell Ford? Clearly there is money to be made in building an exotic sports car and hence somebody is doing it. If millions of Blu-Ray discs are sold each year and doing so makes money, it will happen. If studios don't convince as many people to replace their DVDs with the same title in Blu-Ray as they did back when we transitioned from VHS to DVD, that's too bad for the studios but I hardly think they'll turn their backs on Blu-Ray as a result. They'll adjust their expectations and keep on cranking the Blu-Rays out as long as it makes them a profit, however modest. Besides, whatever way movies are distributed, legally of course, the studios make money and they stay in business. If Blu-Rays represent one of many means by which they can make money, it's still going to be a revenue source and something they will continue to produce.
In regards to the cost factor, I hope you realize that soon enough Blu-Ray blank media will be dirt cheap. Besides, if I want to give one home movie to a relative, do you really think it's practical to put that movie on a hard drive and let them keep the hard drive? Clearly for a one-off situation a hard drive is overkill, not to mention ridiculously expensive. I'd rather burn the movie onto a $1 Blu-Ray disc (they will eventually be that cheap).
In regards to SDs being so common, how many of the people who have SD-based cameras have computers to use with them? I'd say quite a few people head down to their local film processing joint, get on a kiosk and produce prints directly off the SD, no home computer involved. Also, if you're trying to watch true HD, not just any computer will do. Processing HD of Blu-Ray grade is a very demanding task that requires higher grade equipment.
Also, I think you're missing the point when saying people without computers can't use Blu-Ray disks for storage. The point is, there are uses for optical media and ones for hard drives. They are used for different things. You can't compare the Blu Ray vs. SD vs. hard drive vs. download scenario as if there has to be only one solution that everybody has to embrace. This isn't a case of CDs replacing LPs or DVDs replacing VHS tapes. This is a case of consumers being presented with a variety of options, each with their own set of strengths and weaknesses.
By the way, I suspect you're quite wrong in assuming radio is seldom listened to away from the car. You need to keep in mind that you do not represent the way that humanity uses technology any more than I or anyone else does. There are numerous technologies available to us and what's available is growing by the day. My argument is that there's room enough for assorted technologies and not just what you or I think has to be the way to go.
I can only guess that Blu-Ray will be a part of the landscape for quite some time. It will not be what DVD was, exactly, but it's not going to disappear in the next three or four years either.
Storage media always change. I'm not sure why you expect things to freeze with optical disc.
Reel to reel audio tape, vinyl records, 8 tracks, cassette tape, compact disc, digital file.
35mm film, Ampex Quad video tape, Beta Max, VHS, DVD, Blu-ray, digital file
Floppy disc, 3/4" floppy disc, compact disc, DVD, Hard Data Drive, Solid State Drive, Cloud Computing
Storage media will change if there is a good reason to. When going from VHS to DVD, I got better picture quality, media that didn't degrade over time, and it was cheaper (at least for a while with online stores). So what am I getting by going from DVD to another storage media? Better picture. Which media type? Well, Blu-ray lets me play all the DVD's which I already own. So by not having to buy the movies I already own, Blu-ray is the cheaper one for me.
In the future, our kids may not have any DVD's. Then the change for them would be much easier because they won't have to re-buy their movies. By then, maybe we will have addressed the bandwidth issue too.
It's not just about growth. It's mainly about a viable business model. If Ferrari can only make a handful of cars, do they not bother because they can't outsell Ford?
Television and film studios are not Ferrari, they are Ford. Media is a commodity, not premium performance product. Studios are owned by publicly traded conglomerates and they are expected to grow. That is their business model.
If millions of Blu-Ray discs are sold each year and doing so makes money, it will happen. If studios don't convince as many people to replace their DVDs with the same title in Blu-Ray as they did back when we transitioned from VHS to DVD, that's too bad for the studios but I hardly think they'll turn their backs on Blu-Ray as a result. They'll adjust their expectations and keep on cranking the Blu-Rays out as long as it makes them a profit, however modest.
I don't disagree. Studios are going to make Blu-ray for a while. My point is that their loyalty will go with what attracts the largest audience and what sells the most.
In regards to the cost factor, I hope you realize that soon enough Blu-Ray blank media will be dirt cheap. Besides, if I want to give one home movie to a relative, do you really think it's practical to put that movie on a hard drive and let them keep the hard drive? Clearly for a one-off situation a hard drive is overkill, not to mention ridiculously expensive. I'd rather burn the movie onto a $1 Blu-Ray disc (they will eventually be that cheap).
You are mixing the argument. I'm strictly talking about using Blu-ray for data storage. Taking a movie to someones house is a different matter.
Yes the cost is going down. Still hard drives offer many other advantages as storage over optical media.
In regards to SDs being so common, how many of the people who have SD-based cameras have computers to use with them? I'd say quite a few people head down to their local film processing joint, get on a kiosk and produce prints directly off the SD, no home computer involved. Also, if you're trying to watch true HD, not just any computer will do. Processing HD of Blu-Ray grade is a very demanding task that requires higher grade equipment.
I'm not arguing how people use SD cards. My point is that hundreds of millions of people already use them.
The vast majority of people don't care about watching the best 1080 HD. As long as the picture looks reasonably good, most peoe are satisfied.
Also, I think you're missing the point when saying people without computers can't use Blu-Ray disks for storage. The point is, there are uses for optical media and ones for hard drives. They are used for different things. You can't compare the Blu Ray vs. SD vs. hard drive vs. download scenario as if there has to be only one solution that everybody has to embrace. This isn't a case of CDs replacing LPs or DVDs replacing VHS tapes. This is a case of consumers being presented with a variety of options, each with their own set of strengths and weaknesses.
The reason you don't like the comparison is because it clearly is not in favor of optical media. Yes the different forms of storage have different advantages and different uses. But it's common for one type to take away from the other.
CD's replaced LP's because people stopped buying LP's. DVD replaced VHS because people stopped buying VHS. People were given a choice. It's no different from how people can choose Blu-ray or not.
By the way, I suspect you're quite wrong in assuming radio is seldom listened to away from the car. You need to keep in mind that you do not represent the way that humanity uses technology any more than I or anyone else does.
No I'm not wrong. Radio's prime hours are called radio drive time. Radio drive time is around 7AM to 10AM in the morning when people are driving to work. And 5PM to 8PM in the evening when people are driving home. This information is easily available, you can look it up.
I cannot agree with tour assertion BR is cheap it's among the most expensive ways to watch a movie.
Storage media will change if there is a good reason to. When going from VHS to DVD, I got better picture quality, media that didn't degrade over time, and it was cheaper (at least for a while with online stores). So what am I getting by going from DVD to another storage media? Better picture. Which media type? Well, Blu-ray lets me play all the DVD's which I already own. So by not having to buy the movies I already own, Blu-ray is the cheaper one for me.
Going with your point what motivation is there to change from DVD to BR? BR is not the leap in quality that DVD was from VHS.
I cannot agree with tour assertion BR is cheap it's among the most expensive ways to watch a movie.
It is a cheaper overall solution when factoring in all the DVD's I already have. With a Blu-ray player, I get use of all my existing DVD movies. With any other type of media storage without the disc player, I would have to pay to start my movie collection.
It is a cheaper overall solution when factoring in all the DVD's I already have. With a Blu-ray player, I get use of all my existing DVD movies. With any other type of media storage without the disc player, I would have to pay to start my movie collection.
Television and film studios are not Ferrari, they are Ford. Media is a commodity, not premium performance product. Studios are owned by publicly traded conglomerates and they are expected to grow. That is their business model.
I don't disagree. Studios are going to make Blu-ray for a while. My point is that their loyalty will go with what attracts the largest audience and what sells the most.
You are mixing the argument. I'm strictly talking about using Blu-ray for data storage. Taking a movie to someones house is a different matter.
Yes the cost is going down. Still hard drives offer many other advantages as storage over optical media.
I'm not arguing how people use SD cards. My point is that hundreds of millions of people already use them.
The vast majority of people don't care about watching the best 1080 HD. As long as the picture looks reasonably good, most peoe are satisfied.
The reason you don't like the comparison is because it clearly is not in favor of optical media. Yes the different forms of storage have different advantages and different uses. But it's common for one type to take away from the other.
CD's replaced LP's because people stopped buying LP's. DVD replaced VHS because people stopped buying VHS. People were given a choice. It's no different from how people can choose Blu-ray or not.
Look, you're making this a lot more complicated than it is. Companies are in the business of making money.
If there is money in Blu-Ray, the studios will produce them. It's silly to suggest they'll stop producing Blu-Ray discs if the growth they'd hoped for fails to materialize. After all, the American carmakers, Ford included, didn't stop making cars even when their sales went into the toilet.
In regards to the role Blu-Ray can play, clearly it's because there are times when you want to use optical media and not a 500g hard drive that there is room for both and a few other formats besides. People who buy movies, be they DVD or Blu-Ray, want such items so that they can watch a film multiple times and they like to collect movies. Professional digital media is very stable. I have CDs purchased in the 1980s that work just fine to this day. How many hard drives around today are going to be still running flawlessly in 2029?
Also, let's be clear on one thiing. If what you're talking about is sub-standard video, you don't need Blu-Ray or any other new technology. DVD is a mature, cheap technology that you can certainly use if quality is not a consideration. But that's not relevant to this discussion.
In regards to one format replacing another, right from the start it was intended for DVD to replace VHS. It was not an accident. First there was VHS which had its day and years later along came DVD. In time the superior format took over. Both formats were designed to perform the same basic function but one was better than the other. If you have a hard drive in a computer it can store movies, just as they can be stored on a Blu-Ray disc, but they are intended to play a different role. It's not one or the other. Each is better suited to varied uses. Strangely you think there is no way that different technologies can co-exist. Yet we have seen such co-existence in the entertainment field for many years. Movies have been with us for years, as have radio, television, and more recently the Internet. The reason cinema and radio have survived the arrival of television is that each has a place in our lives. I see the same happening in regards to various forms of digital media. Will there be overlap? Absolutely. Certainly that means some canibalizing. But this isn't DVD replacing VHS all over again. That was a transition by design. Quite a different thing.