History suggests Windows 7 launch could boost Mac sales

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Rather than negatively impacting Mac sales, a new report provides evidence that the impending launch of Windows 7 could actually be a boon for Apple.



In a new research note to investors, Brian Marshall with Broadpoint.AmTech looked at the historical trends of new Windows launches and the impact on Mac sales. He found that, if anything, Microsoft's debuts were a benefit to Apple.



"We have concluded that no negative correlation exists on AAPL's hardware sales when Microsoft launches a new OS," Marshall said. "Ironically, we believe new OS launches from MSFT may have acted as a 'delayed accelerant' to AAPL's computing sales. However, we believe AAPL's success (or failure) in the computing market is largely idiosyncratic (or company-specific) in nature and not dependent on others in the industry."



First reported by Fortune Brainstorm Tech, the findings show how Mac sales figures have consistently grown every time a new Windows operating system launched over the last 10 years. Mac sales spiked following the debut of Windows 98, Windows 200, Windows XP and Windows Vista.



Marshall said he believes that Apple could double its share of the worldwide computing market over the next five years. That would take the Mac from its current share of roughly 4 percent to 8 percent by the end of 2014.







Apple launched its own operating system in late August, and Snow Leopard got off to a very strong start. Sales of Mac OS X 10.6 have been twice as strong as its predecessor, Leopard, and four times better than Tiger.



Apple is due to report its September quarter results on Monday, Oct. 19. Marshall expects strong earnings from Apple, with 2.8 million Macs, 7 million iPhones and 10 million iPods sold during the frame. If true, those numbers would be in-line with other projections.



"In our view, Apple is 'THE' undisputed growth name in tech with numerous catalysts on the horizon (e.g. China iPhone ramp, netbook/tablet launch, etc.) and no business model issues," he said. "In addition, AAPL is currently benefiting from a positive mix shift (to higher margin iPhones/iPod touches)."



Broadpoint.AmTech has reiterated its buy rating and has a price target of $210 for AAPL stock.
«13456712

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 229
    I guess the article's premise is true, but it is also true that Mac sales, in that same time period, have grown as I age, as IBM advertises, as Google grows...



    Hopefully Apple and Macs keep on growing, and I keep on aging.
  • Reply 2 of 229
    floccusfloccus Posts: 138member
    Leading up to XP there was the TiBook and Cube, which I'd actually presume is why those numbers increased in that period. The spike from Win2K might more be backlash against Me. Vista obviously needs no explanation. With how close some of the UI features of Win7 are to OS X now, I think people will find it easier/better to jump over if Apple can break the $999 barrier with an iBook/iMac.
  • Reply 3 of 229
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Double in 5 years? Haven't we've heard that for like the last 10 years ? Must be a true fanbot.
  • Reply 4 of 229
    trip1extrip1ex Posts: 109member
    Considering it is pain in the ass to switch from XP to Win7 I can see why Mac sales would rise.
  • Reply 5 of 229
    what a stupid hypothesis is this article. But I know, these analists have to do something to show they've done their job.

    It's possible that when one company advertises its products, it can animate the competitors' consumers, as well. But the result always depends on the strategy and the productline of each company.

    So this article for me was just blablabla, with no sense. Sorry.
  • Reply 6 of 229
    Wow, what extraordinary statistics. Smacks of wishful thinking though. Windows 7 by most accounts is going to be quite an enjoyable (relative to VISTA) experience. Let's see how Apple responds.
  • Reply 7 of 229
    intenseintense Posts: 106member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stevemost View Post


    I guess the article's premise is true, but it is also true that Mac sales, in that same time period, have grown as I age, as IBM advertises, as Google grows...



    Hopefully Apple and Macs keep on growing, and I keep on aging.







    So true.... most things grow in one way or another
  • Reply 8 of 229
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pembroke View Post


    Let's see how Apple responds.



    Are you expecting something in addition to Snow Leopard?
  • Reply 9 of 229
    rob55rob55 Posts: 1,241member
    I don't think the launch of W7 will be as much of a boon (if at all) as previous MS OS launches have been in the past. Considering the early word about W7 is relatively positive, I think it will give PC users less of a reason to switch. However, having beta tested W7 (and Vista before it), I still prefer OS-X and my Macs.
  • Reply 10 of 229
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,735member
    "In our view, Apple is 'THE' undisputed growth name in tech with numerous catalysts on the horizon (e.g. China iPhone ramp, netbook/tablet launch, etc.) and no business model issues," he said. "In addition, AAPL is currently benefiting from a positive mix shift (to higher margin iPhones/iPod touches)."





    This is true. There's no regaining the Premium segment of the market for MS. MS simply doesn't have the ecosystem Apple does. Their business model simply doesn't support it. If Windows 7 could make the perfect cup of espresso as well, it still wouldn't dent Apple's growth. You get to a point where you've lost so much mindshare, while your opponent has gained so much ground (and in a 1st class segment of the market) that the road back to desirability will be all the more rocky.



    Windows 7 might boost generic PC sales, but it will really have no relationship to Mac sales. There's no "gaining back lost market share" for MS. MS is now confined to the low end and mid-end of the market and that's not going to change anytime soon. Consumers in the Premium segment who have $1000 to spend are looking for Macs, and in a recession, and in the presence of heavily adverstised lower-cost (allegedly high-value) alternatives. These people sure as hell aren't going to look at a generic PC, Windows 7 or not.
  • Reply 11 of 229
    asciiascii Posts: 5,513member
    I don't know how they are drawing that conclusion. The graph just seems to continue mostly as it was at the Windows release points. If it was flat it stays flat. If it was going up it keeps going up. There is a spike in 1Q2000 but that's just one quarter, and there was probably a Macworld at that time of year.
  • Reply 12 of 229
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macmondo View Post


    what a stupid hypothesis is this article. But I know, these analists have to do something to show they've done their job.

    It's possible that when one company advertises its products, it can animate the competitors' consumers, as well. But the result always depends on the strategy and the productline of each company.

    So this article for me was just blablabla, with no sense. Sorry.



    That is exactly what the analyst said, i.e., ""We have concluded that no negative correlation exists on AAPL's hardware sales when Microsoft launches a new OS," Marshall said. "Ironically, we believe new OS launches from MSFT may have acted as a 'delayed accelerant' to AAPL's computing sales. However, we believe AAPL's success (or failure) in the computing market is largely idiosyncratic (or company-specific) in nature and not dependent on others in the industry."



    Basically, this analyst was recommending his investors, that based on trending historical data, should not worry about MS's launch of Windows 7, and to continue buying Apple stock. That's all.



    Note: The referenced graph is simply an overall presentation of Apple's sales trend relative to MS's major OS introductions. The data collected by the agency for these periods are far more extensive and comprehensive than displayed here. We are only getting a smidgen of the reported data; we are not privileged to the collection protocol, we are not investor subscribers or clients of the agency; and we are not entitled to any more.
  • Reply 13 of 229
    gwydiongwydion Posts: 1,065member
    My God, what a nonsense graphic
  • Reply 14 of 229
    zoolookzoolook Posts: 657member
    Do we need to go back to school here guys? Correlation and causation...
  • Reply 15 of 229
    I have switched permanently from Win XP to Snow Leopard now.. (since it was an easier transition for me than to Win 7 which has still not released officially)

    So I guess that a lot of people will be inthe same boat
  • Reply 16 of 229
    It could go either way I supposed. Win7 will see much of the leftover XP crowd, which still lingers around the 50% mark (particularly among businesses), to take the next step up. But, I'm not sure that will lead to increased Mac growth because you don't need a Mac to run Windows, so the need for current Windows users to buy a Mac (to run Windows) probably isn't that high. Certainly, Mac users who also run Windows on their machines will be highly tempted to install Win7, so on that front Apple might benefit from a hardware point of view, as the combination of SL and Win7 may cause Apple's base to upgrade their machines (presuming some Leopard users on older hardware are waiting for SL and Win7 to both be out, and make the jump).



    Time will tell.
  • Reply 17 of 229
    hutchohutcho Posts: 132member
    You Apple fan boys believe there is some war going on between Microsoft and Apple. I can assure you there is not. Apple is less than a thorn in Microsoft's side. In fact, like the article suggests, Microsoft profits every time a user buys an Apple, because they often buy a copy of Windows or more likely Office at the same time. Sure, they would rather you buy a PC, but they don't really care.



    Microsoft's main battle is with Google. As long as they win this battle, or have a stake in it, they really don't care about Apple, which is as niche as they come.
  • Reply 18 of 229
    I was so pleasantly surprised to see that most of the comments here don't blindly agree with the study. I don't see strong Mac growth immediately after the release of Win2000 and XP. How they came up with this? I don't know. I think it's probably some analyst trying to justify a gut feeling to buy Apple.



    Windows 7 is looking good by most accounts. It's up to the hackers to see if they can prove otherwise.
  • Reply 19 of 229
    rob55rob55 Posts: 1,241member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hutcho View Post


    ...they really don't care about Apple, which is as niche as they come.



    If Apple is "so niche", why did MS even bother with the "laptop hunters" series of ads or the "I'm a PC" series of ads to counter Apple's ads? For a company that's "less than a thorn" in MS' side, they sure seem to react like Apple really is more than a thorn in their side.
  • Reply 20 of 229
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rob55 View Post


    If Apple is "so niche", why did MS even bother with the "laptop hunters" series of ads or the "I'm a PC" series of ads to counter Apple's ads? For a company that's "less than a thorn" in MS' side, they sure seem to react like Apple really is more than a thorn in their side.



    MS really couldn't care. Sales are sales (though often its XP that is bought on a Mac).

    But, its HP, Dell, Toshiba, Acer, Lenovo, etc. who are putting the pressure on MS. That's why we see the commercials.

    Also, I think Balmer is irritated by the little thorns. That guy has got to go.



    Side note: Who came up with that graph? It shows that after every MS OS release, the immediate next quarter had a DECLINE in Mac Sales... EVEN VISTA!
Sign In or Register to comment.