History suggests Windows 7 launch could boost Mac sales
Rather than negatively impacting Mac sales, a new report provides evidence that the impending launch of Windows 7 could actually be a boon for Apple.
In a new research note to investors, Brian Marshall with Broadpoint.AmTech looked at the historical trends of new Windows launches and the impact on Mac sales. He found that, if anything, Microsoft's debuts were a benefit to Apple.
"We have concluded that no negative correlation exists on AAPL's hardware sales when Microsoft launches a new OS," Marshall said. "Ironically, we believe new OS launches from MSFT may have acted as a 'delayed accelerant' to AAPL's computing sales. However, we believe AAPL's success (or failure) in the computing market is largely idiosyncratic (or company-specific) in nature and not dependent on others in the industry."
First reported by Fortune Brainstorm Tech, the findings show how Mac sales figures have consistently grown every time a new Windows operating system launched over the last 10 years. Mac sales spiked following the debut of Windows 98, Windows 200, Windows XP and Windows Vista.
Marshall said he believes that Apple could double its share of the worldwide computing market over the next five years. That would take the Mac from its current share of roughly 4 percent to 8 percent by the end of 2014.
Apple launched its own operating system in late August, and Snow Leopard got off to a very strong start. Sales of Mac OS X 10.6 have been twice as strong as its predecessor, Leopard, and four times better than Tiger.
Apple is due to report its September quarter results on Monday, Oct. 19. Marshall expects strong earnings from Apple, with 2.8 million Macs, 7 million iPhones and 10 million iPods sold during the frame. If true, those numbers would be in-line with other projections.
"In our view, Apple is 'THE' undisputed growth name in tech with numerous catalysts on the horizon (e.g. China iPhone ramp, netbook/tablet launch, etc.) and no business model issues," he said. "In addition, AAPL is currently benefiting from a positive mix shift (to higher margin iPhones/iPod touches)."
Broadpoint.AmTech has reiterated its buy rating and has a price target of $210 for AAPL stock.
In a new research note to investors, Brian Marshall with Broadpoint.AmTech looked at the historical trends of new Windows launches and the impact on Mac sales. He found that, if anything, Microsoft's debuts were a benefit to Apple.
"We have concluded that no negative correlation exists on AAPL's hardware sales when Microsoft launches a new OS," Marshall said. "Ironically, we believe new OS launches from MSFT may have acted as a 'delayed accelerant' to AAPL's computing sales. However, we believe AAPL's success (or failure) in the computing market is largely idiosyncratic (or company-specific) in nature and not dependent on others in the industry."
First reported by Fortune Brainstorm Tech, the findings show how Mac sales figures have consistently grown every time a new Windows operating system launched over the last 10 years. Mac sales spiked following the debut of Windows 98, Windows 200, Windows XP and Windows Vista.
Marshall said he believes that Apple could double its share of the worldwide computing market over the next five years. That would take the Mac from its current share of roughly 4 percent to 8 percent by the end of 2014.
Apple launched its own operating system in late August, and Snow Leopard got off to a very strong start. Sales of Mac OS X 10.6 have been twice as strong as its predecessor, Leopard, and four times better than Tiger.
Apple is due to report its September quarter results on Monday, Oct. 19. Marshall expects strong earnings from Apple, with 2.8 million Macs, 7 million iPhones and 10 million iPods sold during the frame. If true, those numbers would be in-line with other projections.
"In our view, Apple is 'THE' undisputed growth name in tech with numerous catalysts on the horizon (e.g. China iPhone ramp, netbook/tablet launch, etc.) and no business model issues," he said. "In addition, AAPL is currently benefiting from a positive mix shift (to higher margin iPhones/iPod touches)."
Broadpoint.AmTech has reiterated its buy rating and has a price target of $210 for AAPL stock.
Comments
Hopefully Apple and Macs keep on growing, and I keep on aging.
It's possible that when one company advertises its products, it can animate the competitors' consumers, as well. But the result always depends on the strategy and the productline of each company.
So this article for me was just blablabla, with no sense. Sorry.
I guess the article's premise is true, but it is also true that Mac sales, in that same time period, have grown as I age, as IBM advertises, as Google grows...
Hopefully Apple and Macs keep on growing, and I keep on aging.
So true.... most things grow in one way or another
Let's see how Apple responds.
Are you expecting something in addition to Snow Leopard?
This is true. There's no regaining the Premium segment of the market for MS. MS simply doesn't have the ecosystem Apple does. Their business model simply doesn't support it. If Windows 7 could make the perfect cup of espresso as well, it still wouldn't dent Apple's growth. You get to a point where you've lost so much mindshare, while your opponent has gained so much ground (and in a 1st class segment of the market) that the road back to desirability will be all the more rocky.
Windows 7 might boost generic PC sales, but it will really have no relationship to Mac sales. There's no "gaining back lost market share" for MS. MS is now confined to the low end and mid-end of the market and that's not going to change anytime soon. Consumers in the Premium segment who have $1000 to spend are looking for Macs, and in a recession, and in the presence of heavily adverstised lower-cost (allegedly high-value) alternatives. These people sure as hell aren't going to look at a generic PC, Windows 7 or not.
what a stupid hypothesis is this article. But I know, these analists have to do something to show they've done their job.
It's possible that when one company advertises its products, it can animate the competitors' consumers, as well. But the result always depends on the strategy and the productline of each company.
So this article for me was just blablabla, with no sense. Sorry.
That is exactly what the analyst said, i.e., ""We have concluded that no negative correlation exists on AAPL's hardware sales when Microsoft launches a new OS," Marshall said. "Ironically, we believe new OS launches from MSFT may have acted as a 'delayed accelerant' to AAPL's computing sales. However, we believe AAPL's success (or failure) in the computing market is largely idiosyncratic (or company-specific) in nature and not dependent on others in the industry."
Basically, this analyst was recommending his investors, that based on trending historical data, should not worry about MS's launch of Windows 7, and to continue buying Apple stock. That's all.
Note: The referenced graph is simply an overall presentation of Apple's sales trend relative to MS's major OS introductions. The data collected by the agency for these periods are far more extensive and comprehensive than displayed here. We are only getting a smidgen of the reported data; we are not privileged to the collection protocol, we are not investor subscribers or clients of the agency; and we are not entitled to any more.
So I guess that a lot of people will be inthe same boat
Time will tell.
Microsoft's main battle is with Google. As long as they win this battle, or have a stake in it, they really don't care about Apple, which is as niche as they come.
Windows 7 is looking good by most accounts. It's up to the hackers to see if they can prove otherwise.
...they really don't care about Apple, which is as niche as they come.
If Apple is "so niche", why did MS even bother with the "laptop hunters" series of ads or the "I'm a PC" series of ads to counter Apple's ads? For a company that's "less than a thorn" in MS' side, they sure seem to react like Apple really is more than a thorn in their side.
If Apple is "so niche", why did MS even bother with the "laptop hunters" series of ads or the "I'm a PC" series of ads to counter Apple's ads? For a company that's "less than a thorn" in MS' side, they sure seem to react like Apple really is more than a thorn in their side.
MS really couldn't care. Sales are sales (though often its XP that is bought on a Mac).
But, its HP, Dell, Toshiba, Acer, Lenovo, etc. who are putting the pressure on MS. That's why we see the commercials.
Also, I think Balmer is irritated by the little thorns. That guy has got to go.
Side note: Who came up with that graph? It shows that after every MS OS release, the immediate next quarter had a DECLINE in Mac Sales... EVEN VISTA!