Verizon iPhone would hurt AT&T less than expected - report

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
A new survey of iPhone owners, which revealed that 23% of AT&T's iPhone owners want to switch to Verizon, alleviates fears about AT&T's stability after it loses U.S. iPhone exclusivity.



As a result of its survey of AT&T iPhone owners, Credit Suisse raised its price target for the telecom operator's stock from $27 to $35, BusinessInsider reports.



According to the report, 23% would switch to Verizon if "given the chance;" 3 percent would switch to Sprint and just 2 percent would switch to T-Mobile. 63 percent would stay with AT&T.



By combining data from the survey with current subscription rates, Credit Suisse calculated that 1.4 million of AT&T's iPhone subscribers are at risk of switching to Verizon. According to Credit Suisse, the estimate, which counts for only a small percentage of AT&T's subscriber base, would have less of an impact on AT&T's bottom line than previously expected.



Image: Credit Suisse



The study also revealed that iPhone owners are less satisfied than other customers with AT&T. 51 percent of AT&T's total customers are satisfied and have no plans to change carriers, compared to 41 percent of AT&T iPhone owners. 18 percent of iPhone owners plan to leave AT&T when their contract expires, but only 9 percent of AT&T's total subscriber base plan to leave after their contract. 3 percent of iPhone owners would break their contracts, compared to just 1 percent of the total.



Image: Credit Suisse



Credit Suisse's figures assume a launch date of February 15, 2011 for a Verizon iPhone. At the beginning of the year, Credit Suisse placed the likelihood of AT&T keeping the iPhone's exclusivity in 2010 at 75 percent. Assuming a February 2011 launch, Credit Suisse believes Verizon could meet "pent up demand" within the first year of the iPhone's availability on Verizon.



Recent rumors point to a January 2011 launch for a CDMA iPhone on Verizon. In August, Shaw Wu with Kaufman Bros. said Verizon and Apple are in talks over the iPhone, but warned that a partnership could come as late as 2012.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 79
    So much for the "Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, AT&T is doomed!"
  • Reply 2 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by umrk View Post


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------



    2031 : after a second unsuccessful liver transplantation, Steve Jobs dies. Like Prometheus (who, according to ancient Greek Mythology, was condemned to have his liver perpetullay destroyed and then regenerated, for having stolen the fire from the Olympus, and having given it to the human), Steve Jobs, after having given the Mac to the human, therefore had similar destiny.



    I, umrk, simple mortal, hereby testify in the front of Heaven that this is the true, complete and unaltered record of the prophecy that the Orbe of time transmitted to my iPad on the Patmos island (Sorry, no, I was unable to trace back the IP address of the sender ...). May Heaven grant me to live long enough to see the fulfilment of this prophecy !!!!



    Copy and paste huh?



    Edit: Accidentally quoted the whole thing. So I just took out a few parts to make this post shorter.
  • Reply 3 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post


    Copy and paste huh?



    \
  • Reply 4 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by umrk View Post


    2030 : Apple reinvents the religion : after a carreer as a business man & a politician, Steve Jobs reaches the final (and probably the most successful) accomplishment of his life in being a religious leader. Flying throughout the world with his Gulfstream, he preaches successfully Zen Buddhism in climate of religious fervor which cannot be described, and manages to convert very unlikely disciples (such as Arnold Schwarzenegger & Larry Ellison (who decides to give his entire fortune to charity funds, and to spend the rest of his life in the street of San Francisco as a beggar)).



    Good to know he is still going to pollute the Earth even 20 years from now.
  • Reply 5 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post


    So much for the "Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, AT&T is doomed!"



    No, haven't you heard? Apple is Doomed™ ... The phone wars are over, Apple and iOS lost, Android won. It's too little, too late. Apple missed the Verizon boat. Maybe their best hope is to ditch iOS and come out with Android phones and tablets, people are abandoning Apple and AT&T in droves.
  • Reply 6 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by emulator View Post


    Good to know he is still going to pollute the Earth even 20 years from now.



    Don't worry, it will be nothing compared to all the garbage being churned out by other technology companies, and carbon emissions from consumer and business air travel and other executive jets.



    Just like Apple waste is nothing compared to all the landfill generated by all the other technology and accessory companies around the world.
  • Reply 7 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by umrk View Post


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I, umrk, simple mortal, hereby testify in the front of Heaven that this is the true, complete and unaltered record of the prophecy that the Orbe of time transmitted to my iPad on the Patmos island (Sorry, no, I was unable to trace back the IP address of the sender ...). May Heaven grant me to live long enough to see the fulfilment of this prophecy !!!!



    You forgot that Steve Jobs will personally liase with representatives from Nibiru as well as the space aliens that visited the Mayans, give them many units of iPad 3, and hence single-handedly stop the 2012 apocalypse. Said aliens will be so impressed with "pinch-and-zoom" and other multi-touch gestures, that they will give humans the technology for clean, unlimited fuel, and faster-than-light travel. The only gift required from humankind is the sacrifice of our first-borns, which will be conveniently carried out by the iAltar sacrificial device made by Apple. It will be "simply magical", "awesome" and "completely seamless".
  • Reply 8 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post


    So much for the "Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, AT&T is doomed!"



    Not at all, but it does undercut the argument that once the iPhone goes to Verizon Android is doomed.
  • Reply 9 of 79
    Only 23% would switch to Verizon because they'd have to pay out the ass to get out of their 2 year contracts...
  • Reply 10 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Superbass View Post


    Only 23% would switch to Verizon because they'd have to pay out the ass to get out of their 2 year contracts...



    Not entirely true. Assuming they keep the same pricing structure, it would be cheaper for me to cancel my existing contract and sign with Verizon than to upgrade on AT&T, since they want to charge me a rediculous extra $200 dollars since I missed their early upgrade program by a lousy 13 days.
  • Reply 11 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by grking View Post


    Not at all, but it does undercut the argument that once the iPhone goes to Verizon Android is doomed.



    How so? This is a poll of people to whom Android is unavailable: ATT customers.
  • Reply 12 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Superbass View Post


    Only 23% would switch to Verizon because they'd have to pay out the ass to get out of their 2 year contracts...



    That was my thought as well. The hardware is one thing, but there are significant transaction cost too.



    I don't know what the question was. I don't know if the question included a reference to cancellation fees or not. I don;t know what percentage of respondents were past their contractual commitment period.



    Without this info, all we can do is guess about the significance of the answers.
  • Reply 13 of 79
    lilgto64lilgto64 Posts: 1,147member
    They should have asked questions about why people would switch and what would change their mind - such as improved coverage - or higher speeds - or unlimited data at a reasonable price - or shared family data plan like they have for text and voice.
  • Reply 14 of 79
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,454member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post


    So much for the "Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, AT&T is doomed!"



    Just like every "widespread" issue reported and discussed to death on this and the other Apple centric forums the "at&t's network sucks!" mantra turns out to be less than the trolls and forum post counters portrayed it to be. Just like almost all issues, forums like AppleInsider amplify the negative, trolls inflate the effects, and the perennially stressed cry like babies.



    Name one supposed widespread, deal killing, Apple dooming issue that really was. From antenna-gate to exploding iPods, to overheating iPads, to matte screens, to yellow tinged screens, to Android devices, to you name it. Nothing is as it was reported and trolled to be. The FUD flows like champagne around here. The hand wringing and crying, the emails to Jobs to fix whatever, the blathering, the pontificating is as thick as a peanut butter and banana sandwich.



    Losers always post about how sad the latest kerfuffle is. What really is sad is the state of forums like this one.
  • Reply 15 of 79
    Sounds like the 23% intended switches are buying Verizon's marketing. Verizon's technical capacity to handle the iPhone has never been tested. AT&T's problems have certainly given them a head's up, but their network as of today has not be pushed by the level of activity AT&T has had to contend with.



    I confidently predict Verizon will have substantial bandwidth problems in some markets, especially as the iPhone use (and other smart phones) increases.
  • Reply 16 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post


    Sounds like the 23% intended switches are buying Verizon's marketing. Verizon's technical capacity to handle the iPhone has never been tested. AT&T's problems have certainly given them a head's up, but their network as of today has not be pushed by the level of activity AT&T has had to contend with.



    I confidently predict Verizon will have substantial bandwidth problems in some markets, especially as the iPhone use (and other smart phones) increases.



    I wonder what improvement one might see if AT&T network had 23% less to deal with?



    First, on the network as a whole... Second, the trouble spots of CA and NY?\
  • Reply 17 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post


    Sounds like the 23% intended switches are buying Verizon's marketing. Verizon's technical capacity to handle the iPhone has never been tested. AT&T's problems have certainly given them a head's up, but their network as of today has not be pushed by the level of activity AT&T has had to contend with.



    I confidently predict Verizon will have substantial bandwidth problems in some markets, especially as the iPhone use (and other smart phones) increases.



    Did you not read the report that VZW and even lowly Sprint handled more data than ATT last year? So much for VZWs network not being tested.
  • Reply 18 of 79
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post


    So much for the "Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, AT&T is doomed!"



    I agree! I always thought that there would so many switchers that it would really hurt AT&T...But it seems that with all the complaining about their service maybe it was just the vocal minority.
  • Reply 19 of 79
    There is another group of people they didn't count. Hold outs who are neither under contract or upgraded their iPhones for a new contract in the hopes that if they hold out a few more months, they'll be able to jump ships without contract/early termination issues.
  • Reply 20 of 79
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post


    Did you not read the report that VZW and even lowly Sprint handled more data than ATT last year? So much for VZWs network not being tested.



    Source?
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