Yeah, this prediction would require something that's not happened yet: for real people to actually begin purchasing Windows phones. I've seen only one of them in the wild, and I live and work not too far from the Microsoft homeworld. This phone was owned by the husband of a MSFT employee who only owned it because Microsoft no longer subsidizes the mobile accounts of employees who use iPhones (apparently Blackberry's are still okay though).
He hated the thing and missed his iPhone.
See? Microsoft has to effectively bribe even its employees to use their phones. I find it hard to believe they will successfully overtake the iPhone...
At what point will "smartphones" start to be simply "phones?"
The wide-ranging and ever-expanding capabilities of these devices is making their functioning as phones increasingly incidental. I think a new term will be introduced before too long.
I am not sure I'd say "that's impossible" but I would certainly suggest it's improbable.
The multi-vendor approach *could* do well. But it didn't, with WinMob, which was trounced by RIM and then put to death by the iPhone.
WP7 is, in my mind, a nice product. Unfortunately it is a nice 2007 product, released just prior to 2011. Current information is that they won't get baseline features until the end of 2011 (features promised for spring 2011). Many app developers are seriously unhappy, with terrible sales and not much support from Microsoft (go read the boards, they're very enlightening).
Microsoft can spend their way into a bunch of vendors, as they did with Nokia, but capturing broad market mindshare takes more than that. Compare WP7 to iOS and Android: It's not cheaper, the hardware is basically just the same Android hardware, it's way down on applications, and handset OS upgrades are proving to be a lot more difficult than anyone expected. What, really, indicates that its sales are about to take off?
I don't think anything does. I think any chance WP7 had of being a success was killed by being 3 years later than Android, which also has vendor breadth plus a good software stack and lots of applications and a lot more vendor customizability (which you can read as "competitive differentiation").
Well... if they are discussing market share in terms of what Android has done, then it's theoretically possible providing ...
Yes, but lots of things are "theoretically possible" (including Blackberry taking 99% of the market for example), but the point of a "prediction" by analyst is that it's supposed to be the most likely outcome given the facts.
This is not that. It's really just guesswork based on some really questionable assumptions.
The most egregious part is the Windows Phone 7 prediction because there simply haven't been enough handsets sold to be even able to tell if consumers *like* the thing, yet here they are practically predicting world-wide dominance.
If Microsoft had just come out with a phone that was really popular, (not true) but were having a hard time getting hardware partners (true) and *then* they merged Nokia, then this prediction might be justified. If Nokia's software development was crap (true) and the company was failing as a result (true), and had then been taken over by a software company that had a really hot OS (not true), that everyone was clamouring for (not true), then the prediction would also be valid.
The key point is that the prediction is only good if one assumes that Microsoft's new OS is the hottest thing since sliced bread, and that people will be switching to it in droves once it's out in the market. None of that is necessarily true.
Weird mix of being pretty conservative on the iPhone projection and wildly optimistic about WP7. Nokia and Microsoft could just as easily walk off a cliff together and never be heard from again.
The way I'd do this would be to start with each company's sales in the last year, come up with some reasonable growth rates, and then see where share ends up as a result of those growth rates playing out. My guess is that both Nokia and RIM will see pretty meager growth rates which will hurt them both on share quite a bit. Here's a rough stab at it:
In 2010, there were about 300 million smartphones across these platforms distributed thusly:
By 2015, I'd guess there will be about 1 billion smartphone sales per year, and I'd guess the following spread --
Android: 350 million (35%)
Apple: 300 million (30%)
MS: 200 million (20%)
RIM: 90 million (9%)
other: 60 million (6%)
I feel like the Apple projection is the easiest to make, but the others have a lot of variance. I'm assuming here that Google and MS do about equally mediocre in developing their platforms, but there are good reasons to think that either one could really screw up or really do well.
So 0 + 0 = 20% marketshare by 2015? Did IDC flunk math?
As far as I'm concerned nobody lines up to buy Nokia, and nobody lines up to buy Windows Phone 7. How does both together beat iPhone?
I see what you're saying. But then people don't line up to buy PCs and PCs crush Mac sales. The lines are an anomaly to Apple and sometimes a game system. But lines are like the sprint, not the marathon.
Actually the numbers may not be off the mark. Remember they are looking at this in terms of operating systems and Windows and Android are open for anyone to license while iOs is not.
So basically they are talking about an OS tied to a single device holding steady to perhaps dropping less than a percent while the other systems have to hit multiple hardware attempts to duke it out for the rest of the market.
In terms of hardware, the iPhone could still rise up as the best selling hardware. Perhaps by a sizable margin
And remember that not having a huge chunk of the market can be a good place re: antitrust and other legal issues. Apple may be very happy with a mere 15% if it means no one can sue and make the open the OS for licensing. Especially if that cut is bringing on money hand over fist with 100 of millions of iPhones being sold and billions of apps being bought.
Sorry, IDC has been consistently way off with their predictions. This time no different.
I see what you're saying. But then people don't line up to buy PCs and PCs crush Mac sales. The lines are an anomaly to Apple and sometimes a game system. But lines are like the sprint, not the marathon.
I thought his point was clear: A lack of lines does not mean a lack of sales. I believe your argument would fall under a logical fallacy based on an incorrect correlative conjunction.
Weird mix of being pretty conservative on the iPhone projection and wildly optimistic about WP7. Nokia and Microsoft could just as easily walk off a cliff together and never be heard from again.
The way I'd do this would be to start with each company's sales in the last year, come up with some reasonable growth rates, and then see where share ends up as a result of those growth rates playing out. My guess is that both Nokia and RIM will see pretty meager growth rates which will hurt them both on share quite a bit. Here's a rough stab at it:
In 2010, there were about 300 million smartphones across these platforms distributed thusly:
By 2015, I'd guess there will be about 1 billion smartphone sales per year, and I'd guess the following spread --
Android: 350 million (35%)
Apple: 300 million (30%)
MS: 200 million (20%)
RIM: 90 million (9%)
other: 60 million (6%)
I feel like the Apple projection is the easiest to make, but the others have a lot of variance. I'm assuming here that Google and MS do about equally mediocre in developing their platforms, but there are good reasons to think that either one could really screw up or really do well.
I think you are way closer than the "analyst" but I would disagree a bit.
RIM is in the motions of "walking off a cliff" right now. I would argue they will be dead meat by 2015 and basically just running the BBM service on other peoples devices, so those 90 million users would have to be re-allocated. I would think there is a reasonably good chance that MS and Nokia's partnership is doomed also, but it's by no means as certain as RIM's demise.
When RIM goes belly-up the users will probably split 80/20 - iOS/Android because most corporate users are not going to go for Android. So that will be a big pickup for Apple in the interim IMO.
Windows Phone *is* kind of the wild card there also however, in that if the OS is useable and popular, they could pick up all kinds of corporate support. I just don't see it at the moment though as Windows Phone 7 is just crap right now from all reports.
I am not sure I'd say "that's impossible" but I would certainly suggest it's improbable.
The multi-vendor approach *could* do well. But it didn't, with WinMob, which was trounced by RIM and then put to death by the iPhone.
WP7 is, in my mind, a nice product. Unfortunately it is a nice 2007 product, released just prior to 2011. Current information is that they won't get baseline features until the end of 2011 (features promised for spring 2011). Many app developers are seriously unhappy, with terrible sales and not much support from Microsoft (go read the boards, they're very enlightening).
Microsoft can spend their way into a bunch of vendors, as they did with Nokia, but capturing broad market mindshare takes more than that. Compare WP7 to iOS and Android: It's not cheaper, the hardware is basically just the same Android hardware, it's way down on applications, and handset OS upgrades are proving to be a lot more difficult than anyone expected. What, really, indicates that its sales are about to take off?
I don't think anything does. I think any chance WP7 had of being a success was killed by being 3 years later than Android, which also has vendor breadth plus a good software stack and lots of applications and a lot more vendor customizability (which you can read as "competitive differentiation").
Personally, I think that 2007 stuff is nonsense. Windows Phone 7 is a modern OS. It's interface is superior to iOS in many ways. People seem to be freaking out about the lack of cut-and-paste and multitasking. Two things I'd personally like to disable on my iOS devices. I'm constantly selecting content without meaning to. I go to swipe the page down and end up with a huge swatch of blue selected data. Annoying. And it irks me to no end that when I close an app it doesn't actually close the app. That I have to manually visit the task manager just to close a freaking app. Very poor design. Every app should be rewritten to have a big "close" button that can be used to actually close the application. And why does Apple waste so much of the screen with their task manager? Why just a ribbon of icons at the bottom 10% of the screen? HP's webOS at least as a nice looking task manager (card interface). It looks like Windows Phone is going to steal it. Both beat the hell out of Apple's implementation.
I guess I'm still stunned by people that live by extremes. Something is either great or crap. There's no in between.
Comments
If only they had to place a wager on their prediction. By 2015 everyone will have forgotten this prediction.
They should create a market for rumors..
itcouldhappen.biz
then we could buy stock. Up until an answer is established. Then we could get paid....
Like vegas for idiots. Oh wait.. vegas IS for idiots.. scratch that. JUST like vegas.
He hated the thing and missed his iPhone.
See? Microsoft has to effectively bribe even its employees to use their phones. I find it hard to believe they will successfully overtake the iPhone...
At what point will "smartphones" start to be simply "phones?"
The wide-ranging and ever-expanding capabilities of these devices is making their functioning as phones increasingly incidental. I think a new term will be introduced before too long.
The multi-vendor approach *could* do well. But it didn't, with WinMob, which was trounced by RIM and then put to death by the iPhone.
WP7 is, in my mind, a nice product. Unfortunately it is a nice 2007 product, released just prior to 2011. Current information is that they won't get baseline features until the end of 2011 (features promised for spring 2011). Many app developers are seriously unhappy, with terrible sales and not much support from Microsoft (go read the boards, they're very enlightening).
Microsoft can spend their way into a bunch of vendors, as they did with Nokia, but capturing broad market mindshare takes more than that. Compare WP7 to iOS and Android: It's not cheaper, the hardware is basically just the same Android hardware, it's way down on applications, and handset OS upgrades are proving to be a lot more difficult than anyone expected. What, really, indicates that its sales are about to take off?
I don't think anything does. I think any chance WP7 had of being a success was killed by being 3 years later than Android, which also has vendor breadth plus a good software stack and lots of applications and a lot more vendor customizability (which you can read as "competitive differentiation").
Well... if they are discussing market share in terms of what Android has done, then it's theoretically possible providing ...
Yes, but lots of things are "theoretically possible" (including Blackberry taking 99% of the market for example), but the point of a "prediction" by analyst is that it's supposed to be the most likely outcome given the facts.
This is not that. It's really just guesswork based on some really questionable assumptions.
The most egregious part is the Windows Phone 7 prediction because there simply haven't been enough handsets sold to be even able to tell if consumers *like* the thing, yet here they are practically predicting world-wide dominance.
If Microsoft had just come out with a phone that was really popular, (not true) but were having a hard time getting hardware partners (true) and *then* they merged Nokia, then this prediction might be justified. If Nokia's software development was crap (true) and the company was failing as a result (true), and had then been taken over by a software company that had a really hot OS (not true), that everyone was clamouring for (not true), then the prediction would also be valid.
The key point is that the prediction is only good if one assumes that Microsoft's new OS is the hottest thing since sliced bread, and that people will be switching to it in droves once it's out in the market. None of that is necessarily true.
Most would argue that it's simply not true.
As far as I'm concerned nobody lines up to buy Nokia, and nobody lines up to buy Windows Phone 7. How does both together beat iPhone?
The way I'd do this would be to start with each company's sales in the last year, come up with some reasonable growth rates, and then see where share ends up as a result of those growth rates playing out. My guess is that both Nokia and RIM will see pretty meager growth rates which will hurt them both on share quite a bit. Here's a rough stab at it:
In 2010, there were about 300 million smartphones across these platforms distributed thusly:
Symbian: 112 million
Android: 67 million
RIM: 47 million
iPhone: 47 million
MS: 12 million
other: 11 million
http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/ar...010/1297309933 (table 2)
By 2015, I'd guess there will be about 1 billion smartphone sales per year, and I'd guess the following spread --
Android: 350 million (35%)
Apple: 300 million (30%)
MS: 200 million (20%)
RIM: 90 million (9%)
other: 60 million (6%)
I feel like the Apple projection is the easiest to make, but the others have a lot of variance. I'm assuming here that Google and MS do about equally mediocre in developing their platforms, but there are good reasons to think that either one could really screw up or really do well.
I think they overlooked a major smart phone OS: OOS...
...Oracle OS - nee Android OS
.
So 0 + 0 = 20% marketshare by 2015? Did IDC flunk math?
As far as I'm concerned nobody lines up to buy Nokia, and nobody lines up to buy Windows Phone 7. How does both together beat iPhone?
I see what you're saying. But then people don't line up to buy PCs and PCs crush Mac sales. The lines are an anomaly to Apple and sometimes a game system. But lines are like the sprint, not the marathon.
Isn't it too early of a day for a joke like this?
haha
Actually the numbers may not be off the mark. Remember they are looking at this in terms of operating systems and Windows and Android are open for anyone to license while iOs is not.
So basically they are talking about an OS tied to a single device holding steady to perhaps dropping less than a percent while the other systems have to hit multiple hardware attempts to duke it out for the rest of the market.
In terms of hardware, the iPhone could still rise up as the best selling hardware. Perhaps by a sizable margin
And remember that not having a huge chunk of the market can be a good place re: antitrust and other legal issues. Apple may be very happy with a mere 15% if it means no one can sue and make the open the OS for licensing. Especially if that cut is bringing on money hand over fist with 100 of millions of iPhones being sold and billions of apps being bought.
Sorry, IDC has been consistently way off with their predictions. This time no different.
I see what you're saying. But then people don't line up to buy PCs and PCs crush Mac sales. The lines are an anomaly to Apple and sometimes a game system. But lines are like the sprint, not the marathon.
ummm... Your point being?
ummm... Your point being?
I thought his point was clear: A lack of lines does not mean a lack of sales. I believe your argument would fall under a logical fallacy based on an incorrect correlative conjunction.
if nokia remains relevant this may be true, but that is a big if.
all indications is that Nokia market share will crash and burn.
But if they get the microsoft OS on their future cheap and smart phones, this is possible, but not likely.
Personally, Windows Phone is the only thing that's made me even pay attention to Nokia in ages. I'd like to see them succeed.
? really ??? I think it's time for me to get a job as an analyst...
I'll come in with you!
Rule No 1: No smoking crack whilst making predictions!!!
Weird mix of being pretty conservative on the iPhone projection and wildly optimistic about WP7. Nokia and Microsoft could just as easily walk off a cliff together and never be heard from again.
The way I'd do this would be to start with each company's sales in the last year, come up with some reasonable growth rates, and then see where share ends up as a result of those growth rates playing out. My guess is that both Nokia and RIM will see pretty meager growth rates which will hurt them both on share quite a bit. Here's a rough stab at it:
In 2010, there were about 300 million smartphones across these platforms distributed thusly:
Symbian: 112 million
Android: 67 million
RIM: 47 million
iPhone: 47 million
MS: 12 million
other: 11 million
http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/ar...010/1297309933 (table 2)
By 2015, I'd guess there will be about 1 billion smartphone sales per year, and I'd guess the following spread --
Android: 350 million (35%)
Apple: 300 million (30%)
MS: 200 million (20%)
RIM: 90 million (9%)
other: 60 million (6%)
I feel like the Apple projection is the easiest to make, but the others have a lot of variance. I'm assuming here that Google and MS do about equally mediocre in developing their platforms, but there are good reasons to think that either one could really screw up or really do well.
I think you are way closer than the "analyst" but I would disagree a bit.
RIM is in the motions of "walking off a cliff" right now. I would argue they will be dead meat by 2015 and basically just running the BBM service on other peoples devices, so those 90 million users would have to be re-allocated. I would think there is a reasonably good chance that MS and Nokia's partnership is doomed also, but it's by no means as certain as RIM's demise.
When RIM goes belly-up the users will probably split 80/20 - iOS/Android because most corporate users are not going to go for Android. So that will be a big pickup for Apple in the interim IMO.
Windows Phone *is* kind of the wild card there also however, in that if the OS is useable and popular, they could pick up all kinds of corporate support. I just don't see it at the moment though as Windows Phone 7 is just crap right now from all reports.
I am not sure I'd say "that's impossible" but I would certainly suggest it's improbable.
The multi-vendor approach *could* do well. But it didn't, with WinMob, which was trounced by RIM and then put to death by the iPhone.
WP7 is, in my mind, a nice product. Unfortunately it is a nice 2007 product, released just prior to 2011. Current information is that they won't get baseline features until the end of 2011 (features promised for spring 2011). Many app developers are seriously unhappy, with terrible sales and not much support from Microsoft (go read the boards, they're very enlightening).
Microsoft can spend their way into a bunch of vendors, as they did with Nokia, but capturing broad market mindshare takes more than that. Compare WP7 to iOS and Android: It's not cheaper, the hardware is basically just the same Android hardware, it's way down on applications, and handset OS upgrades are proving to be a lot more difficult than anyone expected. What, really, indicates that its sales are about to take off?
I don't think anything does. I think any chance WP7 had of being a success was killed by being 3 years later than Android, which also has vendor breadth plus a good software stack and lots of applications and a lot more vendor customizability (which you can read as "competitive differentiation").
Personally, I think that 2007 stuff is nonsense. Windows Phone 7 is a modern OS. It's interface is superior to iOS in many ways. People seem to be freaking out about the lack of cut-and-paste and multitasking. Two things I'd personally like to disable on my iOS devices. I'm constantly selecting content without meaning to. I go to swipe the page down and end up with a huge swatch of blue selected data. Annoying. And it irks me to no end that when I close an app it doesn't actually close the app. That I have to manually visit the task manager just to close a freaking app. Very poor design. Every app should be rewritten to have a big "close" button that can be used to actually close the application. And why does Apple waste so much of the screen with their task manager? Why just a ribbon of icons at the bottom 10% of the screen? HP's webOS at least as a nice looking task manager (card interface). It looks like Windows Phone is going to steal it. Both beat the hell out of Apple's implementation.
I guess I'm still stunned by people that live by extremes. Something is either great or crap. There's no in between.