Have you worked out how much you earned per hour for your efforts?
If you include on-line earnings and time spent reading then I'm doing (on average) ~$22/hr. Considerably less than my full-time job, but not bad for a fun hobby.
Right. I am going to get a bit remedial. I actually think I know more about this both as a dev and an investor than IDC.
1) Apple sells a very low priced iPad, and a low priced iPod touch ( essentially the iPhone without the phone). Neither cannabilise the higher end market. They do that to protect their lower end. They will do that in the iPhone as well. This will obviously increase growth.
2) Apple has grown from 0-15% worldwide in 4 years, or so. In fact in less time than that in most markets, in fact. They are not on all carriers. Where they are - as in Europe - they are the biggest smartphone vendors. That this has not made headlines in the US speaks of US insularity. ( source: http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/3834...ndroid-europel)
3) Apple had 28% of the market in the US on one carrier. It has now moved to two. Eventually to all. Whenever it does that it sees it's market share double. Do IDC take any of that into account?
4) WP7 is nowhere in any market.
On some of those points:
1) The low priced iPad isn't that much lower than the iPhone. It's not exactly a cheap device. The iPod touch isn't going to cannalilise anything becuase there's nothing for it to cannabilise (it's the higher priced iPod). What would a cheap iPhone actually be that wouldn't make it prefferable? It still had to be a smartphone, so what could they actually take out.
2 + 3) People switch carriers so market share isn't going to double just by being on another carrier in a country where the phones already available, and Android is growing even faster than iPhones.
4) WP7 is nowhere but it's also the only other OS at the moment that can go on multiple devices. That is why it will hit 20%. People going to buy a smartphone that don't want to pay for an iPhone basically have 2 choices, Android of WP7. WP7 getting just under 1 third of those isn't that unrealistic.
We are talking about the same company right ? microshit right.
The very same ones who screwed up an update to samsung phones, mind you not a complex update, more of an update to ready the phone for a major release.
Microsoft get's a lot of stick for this but seriously has everyone else's iPhone updates gone smoothy?
Out of the 3 I've done, the first 2 updated my data settings to one's that didn't work and I had to follow instructions on the carriers site on how to get them back again. By the third update they had fixed the issue, but it took 3 attempts (in total around 6 hours) to get the update to install, and only installed after I wiped the phone first.
Sure I was happy on all 3 versions it was availiable immediatly, but I personally would have prefered to wait a couple more weeks and it actually work.
1) The low priced iPad isn't that much lower than the iPhone. It's not exactly a cheap device. The iPod touch isn't going to cannalilise anything becuase there's nothing for it to cannabilise (it's the higher priced iPod). What would a cheap iPhone actually be that wouldn't make it prefferable? It still had to be a smartphone, so what could they actually take out.
The iPad is cheap relative to other tablets is what I meant, and it is a cheap device. The iPod touch entry model - which is £189 in the UK ( probably £120 to APple, or less) - is not canibalising the rest of the iPod market as it is underpowered, thats what APple do. The question is - since that is an iPhone without a sim - can they go that low in iPhones. I think so.
Quote:
2 + 3) People switch carriers so market share isn't going to double just by being on another carrier in a country where the phones already available, and Android is growing even faster than iPhones.
They did double in France, and Europe. Android's gowth is down to the factors I mentioned - the US and China. I agree that Apple may not double, it depends on how sticky Android is. I expect the iOS share to increase beyond 28% though.
Quote:
4) WP7 is nowhere but it's also the only other OS at the moment that can go on multiple devices. That is why it will hit 20%. People going to buy a smartphone that don't want to pay for an iPhone basically have 2 choices, Android of WP7. WP7 getting just under 1 third of those isn't that unrealistic.
This is not proven, to say the least. Possibly, and I think that is IDC's logic, but we dont know. I can see APple with 30-40%, and the rest at about 20%, fair enough. I don't see WP7 getting to anywhere near the 20% mark- that means it passes out iOS in 4 years. geeks love it, I dont see it as a normal user's phone. Price matters here, as everywhere else.
Apple is far stickier than people think, as the Android growth is reported (incorrectly) as being at the expense of iOS. With 40% of the market in Europe that is theirs to keep - the satisfaction ratings indicate that people wont move. Not your average Sally, for sure.
So assuming more carriers, cheaper models, a China strategy ( where 58% will get an iPhone, price dependent, or so they say) Apple has nowhere to go but up. IDC's claims are never correct.
The iPad is cheap relative to other tablets is what I meant, and it is a cheap device. The iPod touch entry model - which is £189 in the UK ( probably £120 to APple, or less) - is not canibalising the rest of the iPod market as it is underpowered, thats what APple do. The question is - since that is an iPhone without a sim - can they go that low in iPhones. I think so.
The iPad is cheap compared to some tablets but expensive compared to others. You can get an Android tablet for third of the price of an iPad. Personally wouldn't buy one but there still out there.
With an iPhone though my real question is what do you take out of an iPhone to make a cheaper version. They can't be any slower as it just makes it a rubbish phone, realistically you can take apps away and if you lower storage then that would have an effect on the others. They could potentially bring out a version with a larger screen and make the current version cheaper, but that to could canibalise the high end.
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd
This is not proven, to say the least. Possibly, and I think that is IDC's logic, but we dont know. I can see APple with 30-40%, and the rest at about 20%, fair enough. I don't see WP7 getting to anywhere near the 20% mark- that means it passes out iOS in 4 years. geeks love it, I dont see it as a normal user's phone. Price matters here, as everywhere else.
Apple is far stickier than people think, as the Android growth is reported (incorrectly) as being at the expense of iOS. With 40% of the market in Europe that is theirs to keep - the satisfaction ratings indicate that people wont move. Not your average Sally, for sure.
So assuming more carriers, cheaper models, a China strategy ( where 58% will get an iPhone, price dependent, or so they say) Apple has nowhere to go but up. IDC's claims are never correct.
The big differnce between iPhoen and WP7 though is currently on Orange you can get an iPhone on a £30pm contract for £170, and a WP7 phone on a £30pm contract for free. At least by the end of next year everyone that is willing to pay the premium will have bought an iPhone. They may buy another but that won't increase Apple market share. I think there will become more and more people that wan't a cheap smartphone but Apple is never going to come down to that price.
With 15% they will probably still be marking a bigger profit than anyone else.
The iPad is cheap compared to some tablets but expensive compared to others. You can get an Android tablet for third of the price of an iPad. Personally wouldn't buy one but there still out there.
Where? No capacitive screen is out there at any lower price, only one is at the same price.
Quote:
With an iPhone though my real question is what do you take out of an iPhone to make a cheaper version. They can't be any slower as it just makes it a rubbish phone, realistically you can take apps away and if you lower storage then that would have an effect on the others. They could potentially bring out a version with a larger screen and make the current version cheaper, but that to could canibalise the high end.
As I have pointed out exhaustively the £189 (incl) VAT iPod touch which has a retina display and the same processor as the iPhone 4 is almost a iPhone!. To make that a phone would need an addition of a radio, and sim card. Is the iPod touch line cannibalised by that - no, because Apple skimp on the disk size, its only 8G. The ASP of iPod touches is considerably higher as most people buy the higher memory model - however the price stops Zune etc at that price level.
So the iPhone can either follow the same model, or they can drastically reduce the price of the 3GS when the iP5 comes out, or come out with a different model for cheap. there is no need for the last step, and it would mean production woes. However there will be a cheap model this year. by cheap I mean free on most contracts. <£250 in the UK.
Quote:
The big differnce between iPhoen and WP7 though is currently on Orange you can get an iPhone on a £30pm contract for £170, and a WP7 phone on a £30pm contract for free. At least by the end of next year everyone that is willing to pay the premium will have bought an iPhone. They may buy another but that won't increase Apple market share. I think there will become more and more people that wan't a cheap smartphone but Apple is never going to come down to that price.
With 15% they will probably still be marking a bigger profit than anyone else.
They will come down to that price if they want to continue to compete as the market commodifies. I am assuming they want to because thats that Tim Cook said.
Comments
Is Microsoft going to buy them themselves? That I could believe.
WOW! You spent that much time in preparation only to win $8,400?
Go to school. Learn a trade!
This is not including on-line winnings. And it is after paying for hotel, entertainment, plane tickets and food.
I'm done with school, not much more to accomplish there. I'm currently doing my trade.
Poker has been a profitable hobby.
Have you worked out how much you earned per hour for your efforts?
If you include on-line earnings and time spent reading then I'm doing (on average) ~$22/hr. Considerably less than my full-time job, but not bad for a fun hobby.
Right. I am going to get a bit remedial. I actually think I know more about this both as a dev and an investor than IDC.
1) Apple sells a very low priced iPad, and a low priced iPod touch ( essentially the iPhone without the phone). Neither cannabilise the higher end market. They do that to protect their lower end. They will do that in the iPhone as well. This will obviously increase growth.
2) Apple has grown from 0-15% worldwide in 4 years, or so. In fact in less time than that in most markets, in fact. They are not on all carriers. Where they are - as in Europe - they are the biggest smartphone vendors. That this has not made headlines in the US speaks of US insularity. ( source: http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/3834...ndroid-europel)
3) Apple had 28% of the market in the US on one carrier. It has now moved to two. Eventually to all. Whenever it does that it sees it's market share double. Do IDC take any of that into account?
4) WP7 is nowhere in any market.
On some of those points:
1) The low priced iPad isn't that much lower than the iPhone. It's not exactly a cheap device. The iPod touch isn't going to cannalilise anything becuase there's nothing for it to cannabilise (it's the higher priced iPod). What would a cheap iPhone actually be that wouldn't make it prefferable? It still had to be a smartphone, so what could they actually take out.
2 + 3) People switch carriers so market share isn't going to double just by being on another carrier in a country where the phones already available, and Android is growing even faster than iPhones.
4) WP7 is nowhere but it's also the only other OS at the moment that can go on multiple devices. That is why it will hit 20%. People going to buy a smartphone that don't want to pay for an iPhone basically have 2 choices, Android of WP7. WP7 getting just under 1 third of those isn't that unrealistic.
We are talking about the same company right ? microshit right.
The very same ones who screwed up an update to samsung phones, mind you not a complex update, more of an update to ready the phone for a major release.
Microsoft get's a lot of stick for this but seriously has everyone else's iPhone updates gone smoothy?
Out of the 3 I've done, the first 2 updated my data settings to one's that didn't work and I had to follow instructions on the carriers site on how to get them back again. By the third update they had fixed the issue, but it took 3 attempts (in total around 6 hours) to get the update to install, and only installed after I wiped the phone first.
Sure I was happy on all 3 versions it was availiable immediatly, but I personally would have prefered to wait a couple more weeks and it actually work.
On some of those points:
1) The low priced iPad isn't that much lower than the iPhone. It's not exactly a cheap device. The iPod touch isn't going to cannalilise anything becuase there's nothing for it to cannabilise (it's the higher priced iPod). What would a cheap iPhone actually be that wouldn't make it prefferable? It still had to be a smartphone, so what could they actually take out.
The iPad is cheap relative to other tablets is what I meant, and it is a cheap device. The iPod touch entry model - which is £189 in the UK ( probably £120 to APple, or less) - is not canibalising the rest of the iPod market as it is underpowered, thats what APple do. The question is - since that is an iPhone without a sim - can they go that low in iPhones. I think so.
2 + 3) People switch carriers so market share isn't going to double just by being on another carrier in a country where the phones already available, and Android is growing even faster than iPhones.
They did double in France, and Europe. Android's gowth is down to the factors I mentioned - the US and China. I agree that Apple may not double, it depends on how sticky Android is. I expect the iOS share to increase beyond 28% though.
4) WP7 is nowhere but it's also the only other OS at the moment that can go on multiple devices. That is why it will hit 20%. People going to buy a smartphone that don't want to pay for an iPhone basically have 2 choices, Android of WP7. WP7 getting just under 1 third of those isn't that unrealistic.
This is not proven, to say the least. Possibly, and I think that is IDC's logic, but we dont know. I can see APple with 30-40%, and the rest at about 20%, fair enough. I don't see WP7 getting to anywhere near the 20% mark- that means it passes out iOS in 4 years. geeks love it, I dont see it as a normal user's phone. Price matters here, as everywhere else.
Apple is far stickier than people think, as the Android growth is reported (incorrectly) as being at the expense of iOS. With 40% of the market in Europe that is theirs to keep - the satisfaction ratings indicate that people wont move. Not your average Sally, for sure.
So assuming more carriers, cheaper models, a China strategy ( where 58% will get an iPhone, price dependent, or so they say) Apple has nowhere to go but up. IDC's claims are never correct.
The iPad is cheap relative to other tablets is what I meant, and it is a cheap device. The iPod touch entry model - which is £189 in the UK ( probably £120 to APple, or less) - is not canibalising the rest of the iPod market as it is underpowered, thats what APple do. The question is - since that is an iPhone without a sim - can they go that low in iPhones. I think so.
The iPad is cheap compared to some tablets but expensive compared to others. You can get an Android tablet for third of the price of an iPad. Personally wouldn't buy one but there still out there.
With an iPhone though my real question is what do you take out of an iPhone to make a cheaper version. They can't be any slower as it just makes it a rubbish phone, realistically you can take apps away and if you lower storage then that would have an effect on the others. They could potentially bring out a version with a larger screen and make the current version cheaper, but that to could canibalise the high end.
This is not proven, to say the least. Possibly, and I think that is IDC's logic, but we dont know. I can see APple with 30-40%, and the rest at about 20%, fair enough. I don't see WP7 getting to anywhere near the 20% mark- that means it passes out iOS in 4 years. geeks love it, I dont see it as a normal user's phone. Price matters here, as everywhere else.
Apple is far stickier than people think, as the Android growth is reported (incorrectly) as being at the expense of iOS. With 40% of the market in Europe that is theirs to keep - the satisfaction ratings indicate that people wont move. Not your average Sally, for sure.
So assuming more carriers, cheaper models, a China strategy ( where 58% will get an iPhone, price dependent, or so they say) Apple has nowhere to go but up. IDC's claims are never correct.
The big differnce between iPhoen and WP7 though is currently on Orange you can get an iPhone on a £30pm contract for £170, and a WP7 phone on a £30pm contract for free. At least by the end of next year everyone that is willing to pay the premium will have bought an iPhone. They may buy another but that won't increase Apple market share. I think there will become more and more people that wan't a cheap smartphone but Apple is never going to come down to that price.
With 15% they will probably still be marking a bigger profit than anyone else.
The iPad is cheap compared to some tablets but expensive compared to others. You can get an Android tablet for third of the price of an iPad. Personally wouldn't buy one but there still out there.
Where? No capacitive screen is out there at any lower price, only one is at the same price.
With an iPhone though my real question is what do you take out of an iPhone to make a cheaper version. They can't be any slower as it just makes it a rubbish phone, realistically you can take apps away and if you lower storage then that would have an effect on the others. They could potentially bring out a version with a larger screen and make the current version cheaper, but that to could canibalise the high end.
As I have pointed out exhaustively the £189 (incl) VAT iPod touch which has a retina display and the same processor as the iPhone 4 is almost a iPhone!. To make that a phone would need an addition of a radio, and sim card. Is the iPod touch line cannibalised by that - no, because Apple skimp on the disk size, its only 8G. The ASP of iPod touches is considerably higher as most people buy the higher memory model - however the price stops Zune etc at that price level.
So the iPhone can either follow the same model, or they can drastically reduce the price of the 3GS when the iP5 comes out, or come out with a different model for cheap. there is no need for the last step, and it would mean production woes. However there will be a cheap model this year. by cheap I mean free on most contracts. <£250 in the UK.
The big differnce between iPhoen and WP7 though is currently on Orange you can get an iPhone on a £30pm contract for £170, and a WP7 phone on a £30pm contract for free. At least by the end of next year everyone that is willing to pay the premium will have bought an iPhone. They may buy another but that won't increase Apple market share. I think there will become more and more people that wan't a cheap smartphone but Apple is never going to come down to that price.
With 15% they will probably still be marking a bigger profit than anyone else.
They will come down to that price if they want to continue to compete as the market commodifies. I am assuming they want to because thats that Tim Cook said.