This prediction isn?t as crazy as people think, though I doubt Symbian will be that low. The IDC basically exchanged Symbian for WP7 on Nokia devices while still siphoning off a good deal of the Nokia?s sales to other vendor?s OSes.
I think it?s far too early to tell what 2015 will be like, but this isn?t even close to being improbable. WP7 is a good modern mobile OS. It?s still missing some key features, but these are features that iPhone OS and Android didn?t have when they first emerged and slated features that Android still doesn?t have ready. Because of this I don?t think we will be able to tell what WP7 can do for Nokia or the competition until we get some more evidence, which should be available this year.
I disagree with you, especially in that time frame. Unless Apple really drops the ball they are not just change the game that fast. It doesn't even account for what is happening in the year before they even come out with the new Nokia/Windows phone. Next summer Apple will probably have their 4G phone out.
I think you are way closer than the "analyst" but I would disagree a bit.
RIM is in the motions of "walking off a cliff" right now. I would argue they will be dead meat by 2015 and basically just running the BBM service on other peoples devices, so those 90 million users would have to be re-allocated. I would think there is a reasonably good chance that MS and Nokia's partnership is doomed also, but it's by no means as certain as RIM's demise.
When RIM goes belly-up the users will probably split 80/20 - iOS/Android because most corporate users are not going to go for Android. So that will be a big pickup for Apple in the interim IMO.
Windows Phone *is* kind of the wild card there also however, in that if the OS is useable and popular, they could pick up all kinds of corporate support. I just don't see it at the moment though as Windows Phone 7 is just crap right now from all reports.
My employer is already looking at replacing BlackBerrys with iPhones. Nobody likes their BlackBerry.
I think you are way closer than the "analyst" but I would disagree a bit.
RIM is in the motions of "walking off a cliff" right now. I would argue they will be dead meat by 2015 and basically just running the BBM service on other peoples devices, so those 90 million users would have to be re-allocated. I would think there is a reasonably good chance that MS and Nokia's partnership is doomed also, but it's by no means as certain as RIM's demise.
When RIM goes belly-up the users will probably split 80/20 - iOS/Android because most corporate users are not going to go for Android. So that will be a big pickup for Apple in the interim IMO.
Windows Phone *is* kind of the wild card there also however, in that if the OS is useable and popular, they could pick up all kinds of corporate support. I just don't see it at the moment though as Windows Phone 7 is just crap right now from all reports.
Good point on RIM -- you're probably right that I was too generous with them. My guess is that they'd go 50-30-20 Apple-MS-Android (unless MS tanks, in which case I'd agree with you)
I actually think MS has done some nifty things with the UI for Windows Phone, but this prediction is wildly optimistic for Windows/Nokia.
First, remember that we're already well into 2011, and most people with smart phones (at least in the US) have 2 year contracts. That means most people holding iPhone 4s now won't even be back in the market until 2012 or 2013. The same goes for the early adopters of 4G phones for Android. That means Windows/Nokia will have to win over a HUGE percentage current iOS and Android phone owners as they come out of their contracts in a very short period of time to get to this level of marketshare by 2015. (And, in addition to iOS and Android, new WebOS phones will soon enter the fray featuring the old Palm's nifty OS and now backed by the very deep pockets of HP.)
I'm guessing the analyst is just assuming Nokia will maintain their current market share into 2015 and, because almost all phones will be smart phones by then, by extension, Windows Phone will eclipse iOS. This is a huge leap, though, since Nokia has lost vast marketshare in North America, Europe, and Asia. Yes, it still sells tons of phones worldwide, but now they're mostly low end models sold into the third world. It's not at all clear to me why the analyst expects Windows to make giant inroads against Apple and Android in the first world, or why third world users would opt into Windows over Android as smartphone hardware commoditizes over the next few years unless Microsoft plans to PAY end users to use its OS just as it's paying Nokia to use it now.
Personally, I think that 2007 stuff is nonsense. Windows Phone 7 is a modern OS. It's interface is superior to iOS in many ways. People seem to be freaking out about the lack of cut-and-paste and multitasking. Two things I'd personally like to disable on my iOS devices. I'm constantly selecting content without meaning to. I go to swipe the page down and end up with a huge swatch of blue selected data. Annoying. And it irks me to no end that when I close an app it doesn't actually close the app. That I have to manually visit the task manager just to close a freaking app. Very poor design. Every app should be rewritten to have a big "close" button that can be used to actually close the application. And why does Apple waste so much of the screen with their task manager? Why just a ribbon of icons at the bottom 10% of the screen? HP's webOS at least as a nice looking task manager (card interface). It looks like Windows Phone is going to steal it. Both beat the hell out of Apple's implementation.
I guess I'm still stunned by people that live by extremes. Something is either great or crap. There's no in between.
Given the vehemence of your comments you seem to fall in the iOS is crap extreme. LOL.
Not sure what your cut and paste problem is. I would hope that after making the same mistake 100 times you'd figure out how to touch the screen to do what you want.
The "anal yst" behind this report is working on two "ass umptions"
1. Apple's strategy will remain unchanged
2. Nokia will effectively migrate 100% of its current user base to it's future platform
One additional assumption.... Right now MS is paying Nokia to use their phone OS. How long is MS going to be willing to put up billions of dollars for manufacturers to use their OS (looking at Plays For Sure, Zune, etc, as examples of MS's level of commitment to projects)?
And once MS starts charging to license their OS, will manufacturers just switch to the free Android instead? If the Nokia+MS phone hits a few out of the park, other handset makers might be willing to pay for the OS, but until then they will just keep using Android.
then we could buy stock. Up until an answer is established. Then we could get paid....
Like vegas for idiots. Oh wait.. vegas IS for idiots.. scratch that. JUST like vegas.
I've banked 6 of 8 trips to Vegas. Winnings more than made up for the 2 trips were I came home a loser. Overall I've averaged (including expenses) of $1,400 per trip.
How do I do it?
Spend 3 to 4 years playing on-line poker studying the game (reading as much material as possible.) Go to Vegas and play the suckas.
So, you should be more specific.... casino 'pit' games are for idiots. Poker is another story.
I thought his point was clear: A lack of lines does not mean a lack of sales. I believe your argument would fall under a logical fallacy based on an incorrect correlative conjunction.
Wow, what a pretentious reply.
First of all I had no argument, I simply asked what his point was.
He did not directly respond to the other persons comment. He was taking "lines" literally instead of figuratively, but so apparently did you.
And sorry, the PC market has nothing to do with the mobile market.
This Anal-ist doesn't have a clue! What feature in the Windows phone is going to magically make there piss poor sales suddenly explode into this magic rise to the top?
And it irks me to no end that when I close an app it doesn't actually close the app.
I guess I'm still stunned by people that live by extremes. Something is either great or crap. There's no in between.
You leave the app be going to another. The app left only exists in the last-used apps list, and is not in any way still running. There is no need to close it yourself. The only exceptions are apps such as iPod or navigational apps which you want to continue whilst you fiddle.
I've banked 6 of 8 trips to Vegas. Winnings more than made up for the 2 trips were I came home a loser. Overall I've averaged (including expenses) of $1,400 per trip.
How do I do it?
Spend 3 to 4 years playing on-line poker studying the game (reading as much material as possible.) Go to Vegas and play the suckas.
So, you should be more specific.... casino 'pit' games are for idiots. Poker is another story.
Have you worked out how much you earned per hour for your efforts?
They forgot to post, "This ad paid for by Microsoft and Nokia."
Seriously, what a joke. As if they could make any reasonable prediction about a fast moving tech category like smartphones FOUR years out. One year is pushing it. Four years is flat out stupid.
For instance, they make no mention of HP's WebOS operating system or Motorola's new OS that is in the works. Does that mean that they are predicting that both operating systems will not go anywhere in the next four years? Seriously, anyone who takes this seriously as an investment strategy deserves to lose all of their money. They might as well go to Madame Zelda down the street and have her read the bones for investment advice.
So, unless someone can show me a 2007 prediction from these charlatans predicting the current market shares of the iPhone and Android, I can only laugh and shake my head at the idiotic lengths these analyst will go to for 15 seconds of fame.
Interestingly, this analysis assumes that both Nokia and RIM will stay at roughly the same levels in 2015 as in 2011. What is the likelihood of that? What is the likelihood that even one of them will neither grow nor shrink by a noteworthy % share of the market.
It does not take a genius (but perhaps more than an analyst) to predict that one of Nokia or RIM will be headed toward irrelevance in 4 years.
I've banked 6 of 8 trips to Vegas. Winnings more than made up for the 2 trips were I came home a loser. Overall I've averaged (including expenses) of $1,400 per trip.
How do I do it?
Spend 3 to 4 years playing on-line poker studying the game (reading as much material as possible.) Go to Vegas and play the suckas.
So, you should be more specific.... casino 'pit' games are for idiots. Poker is another story.
WOW! You spent that much time in preparation only to win $8,400?
Comments
This prediction isn?t as crazy as people think, though I doubt Symbian will be that low. The IDC basically exchanged Symbian for WP7 on Nokia devices while still siphoning off a good deal of the Nokia?s sales to other vendor?s OSes.
I think it?s far too early to tell what 2015 will be like, but this isn?t even close to being improbable. WP7 is a good modern mobile OS. It?s still missing some key features, but these are features that iPhone OS and Android didn?t have when they first emerged and slated features that Android still doesn?t have ready. Because of this I don?t think we will be able to tell what WP7 can do for Nokia or the competition until we get some more evidence, which should be available this year.
I disagree with you, especially in that time frame. Unless Apple really drops the ball they are not just change the game that fast. It doesn't even account for what is happening in the year before they even come out with the new Nokia/Windows phone. Next summer Apple will probably have their 4G phone out.
I think you are way closer than the "analyst" but I would disagree a bit.
RIM is in the motions of "walking off a cliff" right now. I would argue they will be dead meat by 2015 and basically just running the BBM service on other peoples devices, so those 90 million users would have to be re-allocated. I would think there is a reasonably good chance that MS and Nokia's partnership is doomed also, but it's by no means as certain as RIM's demise.
When RIM goes belly-up the users will probably split 80/20 - iOS/Android because most corporate users are not going to go for Android. So that will be a big pickup for Apple in the interim IMO.
Windows Phone *is* kind of the wild card there also however, in that if the OS is useable and popular, they could pick up all kinds of corporate support. I just don't see it at the moment though as Windows Phone 7 is just crap right now from all reports.
My employer is already looking at replacing BlackBerrys with iPhones. Nobody likes their BlackBerry.
I think you are way closer than the "analyst" but I would disagree a bit.
RIM is in the motions of "walking off a cliff" right now. I would argue they will be dead meat by 2015 and basically just running the BBM service on other peoples devices, so those 90 million users would have to be re-allocated. I would think there is a reasonably good chance that MS and Nokia's partnership is doomed also, but it's by no means as certain as RIM's demise.
When RIM goes belly-up the users will probably split 80/20 - iOS/Android because most corporate users are not going to go for Android. So that will be a big pickup for Apple in the interim IMO.
Windows Phone *is* kind of the wild card there also however, in that if the OS is useable and popular, they could pick up all kinds of corporate support. I just don't see it at the moment though as Windows Phone 7 is just crap right now from all reports.
Good point on RIM -- you're probably right that I was too generous with them. My guess is that they'd go 50-30-20 Apple-MS-Android (unless MS tanks, in which case I'd agree with you)
First, remember that we're already well into 2011, and most people with smart phones (at least in the US) have 2 year contracts. That means most people holding iPhone 4s now won't even be back in the market until 2012 or 2013. The same goes for the early adopters of 4G phones for Android. That means Windows/Nokia will have to win over a HUGE percentage current iOS and Android phone owners as they come out of their contracts in a very short period of time to get to this level of marketshare by 2015. (And, in addition to iOS and Android, new WebOS phones will soon enter the fray featuring the old Palm's nifty OS and now backed by the very deep pockets of HP.)
I'm guessing the analyst is just assuming Nokia will maintain their current market share into 2015 and, because almost all phones will be smart phones by then, by extension, Windows Phone will eclipse iOS. This is a huge leap, though, since Nokia has lost vast marketshare in North America, Europe, and Asia. Yes, it still sells tons of phones worldwide, but now they're mostly low end models sold into the third world. It's not at all clear to me why the analyst expects Windows to make giant inroads against Apple and Android in the first world, or why third world users would opt into Windows over Android as smartphone hardware commoditizes over the next few years unless Microsoft plans to PAY end users to use its OS just as it's paying Nokia to use it now.
Personally, I think that 2007 stuff is nonsense. Windows Phone 7 is a modern OS. It's interface is superior to iOS in many ways. People seem to be freaking out about the lack of cut-and-paste and multitasking. Two things I'd personally like to disable on my iOS devices. I'm constantly selecting content without meaning to. I go to swipe the page down and end up with a huge swatch of blue selected data. Annoying. And it irks me to no end that when I close an app it doesn't actually close the app. That I have to manually visit the task manager just to close a freaking app. Very poor design. Every app should be rewritten to have a big "close" button that can be used to actually close the application. And why does Apple waste so much of the screen with their task manager? Why just a ribbon of icons at the bottom 10% of the screen? HP's webOS at least as a nice looking task manager (card interface). It looks like Windows Phone is going to steal it. Both beat the hell out of Apple's implementation.
I guess I'm still stunned by people that live by extremes. Something is either great or crap. There's no in between.
Given the vehemence of your comments you seem to fall in the iOS is crap extreme. LOL.
Not sure what your cut and paste problem is. I would hope that after making the same mistake 100 times you'd figure out how to touch the screen to do what you want.
The "anal yst" behind this report is working on two "ass umptions"
1. Apple's strategy will remain unchanged
2. Nokia will effectively migrate 100% of its current user base to it's future platform
One additional assumption.... Right now MS is paying Nokia to use their phone OS. How long is MS going to be willing to put up billions of dollars for manufacturers to use their OS (looking at Plays For Sure, Zune, etc, as examples of MS's level of commitment to projects)?
And once MS starts charging to license their OS, will manufacturers just switch to the free Android instead? If the Nokia+MS phone hits a few out of the park, other handset makers might be willing to pay for the OS, but until then they will just keep using Android.
They should create a market for rumors..
itcouldhappen.biz
then we could buy stock. Up until an answer is established. Then we could get paid....
Like vegas for idiots. Oh wait.. vegas IS for idiots.. scratch that. JUST like vegas.
I've banked 6 of 8 trips to Vegas. Winnings more than made up for the 2 trips were I came home a loser. Overall I've averaged (including expenses) of $1,400 per trip.
How do I do it?
Spend 3 to 4 years playing on-line poker studying the game (reading as much material as possible.) Go to Vegas and play the suckas.
So, you should be more specific.... casino 'pit' games are for idiots. Poker is another story.
Like the first commenter said, how can I become an analyst!?
I thought his point was clear: A lack of lines does not mean a lack of sales. I believe your argument would fall under a logical fallacy based on an incorrect correlative conjunction.
Wow, what a pretentious reply.
First of all I had no argument, I simply asked what his point was.
He did not directly respond to the other persons comment. He was taking "lines" literally instead of figuratively, but so apparently did you.
And sorry, the PC market has nothing to do with the mobile market.
And it irks me to no end that when I close an app it doesn't actually close the app.
I guess I'm still stunned by people that live by extremes. Something is either great or crap. There's no in between.
You leave the app be going to another. The app left only exists in the last-used apps list, and is not in any way still running. There is no need to close it yourself. The only exceptions are apps such as iPod or navigational apps which you want to continue whilst you fiddle.
http://www.engadget.com/2010/04/08/j...-they-blew-it/
IDC: I Do Crack
No, actually, it's a typo: it should be IDK
I've banked 6 of 8 trips to Vegas. Winnings more than made up for the 2 trips were I came home a loser. Overall I've averaged (including expenses) of $1,400 per trip.
How do I do it?
Spend 3 to 4 years playing on-line poker studying the game (reading as much material as possible.) Go to Vegas and play the suckas.
So, you should be more specific.... casino 'pit' games are for idiots. Poker is another story.
Have you worked out how much you earned per hour for your efforts?
ROFL!
They forgot to post, "This ad paid for by Microsoft and Nokia."
Seriously, what a joke. As if they could make any reasonable prediction about a fast moving tech category like smartphones FOUR years out. One year is pushing it. Four years is flat out stupid.
For instance, they make no mention of HP's WebOS operating system or Motorola's new OS that is in the works. Does that mean that they are predicting that both operating systems will not go anywhere in the next four years? Seriously, anyone who takes this seriously as an investment strategy deserves to lose all of their money. They might as well go to Madame Zelda down the street and have her read the bones for investment advice.
So, unless someone can show me a 2007 prediction from these charlatans predicting the current market shares of the iPhone and Android, I can only laugh and shake my head at the idiotic lengths these analyst will go to for 15 seconds of fame.
It does not take a genius (but perhaps more than an analyst) to predict that one of Nokia or RIM will be headed toward irrelevance in 4 years.
I've banked 6 of 8 trips to Vegas. Winnings more than made up for the 2 trips were I came home a loser. Overall I've averaged (including expenses) of $1,400 per trip.
How do I do it?
Spend 3 to 4 years playing on-line poker studying the game (reading as much material as possible.) Go to Vegas and play the suckas.
So, you should be more specific.... casino 'pit' games are for idiots. Poker is another story.
WOW! You spent that much time in preparation only to win $8,400?
Go to school. Learn a trade!