Apple's 'iPhone 5 Tsunami' predicted to sell 250M units over life cycle

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
The next iPhone is expected by one analyst to be one of the most promising device upgrade cycles in Apple's history, driving more than $50 in earnings and as many as 250 million units over its life cycle.

Craig Berger with FBR Capital Markets believes Apple's so-called "iPhone 5" will deliver big results for both consumers and investors in AAPL stock. In fact, he sees the positive effects of a new iPhone launch extending well beyond Apple to its chip manufacturing partners and service providers.

Potential gainers from the launch of the new iPhone include Qualcomm and Fairchild Semiconductor, according to Berger. Both companies were also identified in a report last month from AppleInsider that detailed how Apple's U.S.-based supply chain has been increasing production.

Berger said the upgrade eligibility status of wireless subscribers could have a negative effect on Apple's total market share in the U.S., but he expects that weakness to be offset by the fact that upgrades are more often driven by product launches than eligibility status. He projects that extended upgrade policies could reduce eligible subscribers by 3.9 percent in 2013.

Berger also believes that if China Mobile begins selling Apple's iPhone in early 2013, it would generate 13 million units in the first half of the year. Rumors of a partnership between Apple and China Mobile have persisted for years, but to date the iPhone is still not officially available through the world's largest wireless carrier.

FBR


The "iPhone 5 Tsunami," as Berger called it, is also expected to help the wireless industry as a whole. He believes Apple's next iPhone will "help the industry migrate to a better balance between content provider and end-user revenue sources to support continued investment."

By investing in high-speed 4G LTE networks, throttling high-bandwidth users, and deploying Wi-Fi offloads, some carriers have been able to reduce their costs while application service providers like Apple, Google, Facebook and Netflix have been working closely with operators to improve scalability and minimize their effect on networks.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 86
    jj.yuanjj.yuan Posts: 212member


    This Tsunami would affect me. My 2nd daughter has been waiting since my 1st daughter got the iPhone 4S ... image

     

  • Reply 2 of 86


    These Wall Street crooks never cease to amaze me.


    As they talk up the so called iPhone 5 as the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ the stop price increases like a working NASA rocket. LOL!


    Oh boy!

  • Reply 3 of 86
    malaxmalax Posts: 1,598member


    "$50 in earning" seems conservative.

  • Reply 4 of 86


    $50 in earnings. That's how you manage expectations!

  • Reply 5 of 86


    Definitely a stock-propping piece.

  • Reply 6 of 86

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post


    These Wall Street crooks never cease to amaze me.


    As they talk up the so called iPhone 5 as the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ the stop price increases like a working NASA rocket. LOL!


    Oh boy!



     


    With NASDAQ tanking, Apple will become their Hail Mary Pass for several investors and fund managers. If Apple could not pull it off, another round of Wall Street layoffs could be on.


     


    Which bank or fund might close the door if Apple could not reach $700 this year?

  • Reply 7 of 86
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    <div align="center"><img src="http://photos.appleinsidercdn.com/fbr-120820.jpg" border="0" width="776" height="555" alt="FBR" /></div>.

    MSNBC headline:
    Apple iPhone sales projected to fall 14% in 4Q13 quarter. /s
    malax wrote: »
    "$50 in earning" seems conservative.

    I assume they mean 'per share', but gave up expecting good reporting from AI a long time ago.
  • Reply 8 of 86

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    MSNBC headline:

    Apple iPhone sales projected to fall 14% in 4Q13 quarter.


    I remembered you told us Apple is not immune to U.S. recession, and I believe that. But why the recession begins to bite Apple now, this time this year?

  • Reply 9 of 86


    Forecast - Apple sales of new iPhone will exceed expectations for some and be below expectations for others - given the fact that financial pundits/analysts spout-off about Apple in order to manage their piece of the company.


     


    My guess is that Apple will sell lots of iPhones, lots of the purported iPad mini, lots of Apple television sets.  They'll keep selling lots of iPad 3's and their stock price will keep going up.  The fact that they're paying dividends will change how some investors look at them, which may in turn further drive the stock price up.


     


    It's not rocket science, betting on Apple's performance, especially compared to some other corporations that don't have the track record Apple does for new hit products and an annual refresh cycle that has shown to keep pushing stock value and brand value up.  I'm sure there will be a day when they launch something that doesn't act as a game changer and in fact has a negative effect on the company, but I don't see that happening any time soon.  If Apple keeps thinking ahead of most other tech companies - thinking about how to make the user experience better in multiple categories, including those we're not thinking about right now, then they'll keep performing and growing.  But that's just my thought and I'm not getting paid by some financial institution to make these types of comments.

  • Reply 10 of 86
    jason98jason98 Posts: 766member
    I don't see a smartphone with 30% bezel getting sold to a quarter of billion people nowadays. Just won't happen.
  • Reply 11 of 86


    Two please. Right now. Our iPhone 4s feel so sluggish these days.


     


    Just gotta figure out whether to leave AT&Thieves for Verizon or not.


     


    No sign of AT&T LTE in Philly. That might do it.

  • Reply 12 of 86
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,001member
    jragosta wrote: »
    MSNBC headline:
    Apple iPhone sales projected to fall 14% in 4Q13 quarter. /s
    I assume they mean 'per share', but gave up expecting good reporting from AI a long time ago.

    4Q of 2013? They're already thinking of next year's refresh?
  • Reply 13 of 86
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    fairthrope wrote: »
    I remembered you told us Apple is not immune to U.S. recession, and I believe that. But why the recession begins to bite Apple now, this time this year?

    Where did I ever claim that Apple was immune to a recession?

    Your imagination is getting the better of you.
  • Reply 14 of 86

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    Where did I ever claim that Apple was immune to a recession?

    Your imagination is getting the better of you.


    You sure did, back when Apple drop to $580 a couple of month earlier.


     


    Now just answer the question alright? Why do you think MSNBC would be right this time, that iPhone 5 may not be a blockbuster release like investors take for granted for so long? I need some opinion.

  • Reply 15 of 86
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,001member
    jragosta wrote: »
    Where did I ever claim that Apple was immune to a recession?
    Your imagination is getting the better of you.

    I'd say it. Even if they do drop 14% (which I don't believe for a second) it'll still be much better than everyone else. I can see a small drop next year but more likely a single digit drop. All that got the 4S at launch and didn't upgrade this year will be up for contract renewal plus all the people that upgrade yearly.
  • Reply 16 of 86

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    I'd say it. Even if they do drop 14% (which I don't believe for a second) it'll still be much better than everyone else.


    By being the cleanest shirt in a dirty pile?

  • Reply 17 of 86
    fairthrope wrote: »
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    I'd say it. Even if they do drop 14% (which I don't believe for a second) it'll still be much better than everyone else.
    By being the cleanest shirt in a dirty pile?

    I think the OP was referring to the assumption that the sales of the iPhone five will drop 14% from the year ago quarter, when the iPhone six is released -- Similar to the way any new model affects the sale of the prior model... No surprise, and no news either.
  • Reply 18 of 86
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    fairthrope wrote: »
    You sure did, back when Apple drop to $580 a couple of month earlier.

    Prove it.

    I never said any such thing and your delusions don't change the facts.
    fairthrope wrote: »
    Now just answer the question alright? Why do you think MSNBC would be right this time, that iPhone 5 may not be a blockbuster release like investors take for granted for so long? I need some opinion.

    Please try to keep up. Note the '/s' tag in my post. My point was not whether the numbers were accurate or not. My comment was a dig at MSNBC which manages to find one tiny bit of negative information about Apple and makes that the headline even when a report is otherwise very positive. So, IF THE NUMBERS ARE ACCURATE, MSNBC would ignore the projected 20% increase this year and focus on a 14% decline a year further into the future. I'm not suggesting that any of the numbers are correct, incorrect, or partially correct.
  • Reply 19 of 86
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 22,826member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post


    I remembered you told us Apple is not immune to U.S. recession, and I believe that. But why the recession begins to bite Apple now, this time this year?


  • Reply 20 of 86


    My guess is that the iPhone 5 will sell in record numbers.  I don't know if this one analyst is correct, but the trend has been that each new model sells in numbers that dwarf all of the older models.


     


    Add in the possibility that the current iPhone 4 and 4S will continue to be sold at mid- and bottom-market prices, after subsidies, and Apple is very likely to sell record-breaking numbers.  My guess is that many components of the iPhone 5 are made by companies that have the Apple manufacturing process down pat, so that per-piece prices will be lower than in the past, especially for the now-current models, so margins should increase as well.


     


    I expect that this upcoming quarter will be a blowout for AAPL.

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