Taiwan's tech companies banding together with Apple to take on Samsung

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  • Reply 61 of 128
    jdnc123jdnc123 Posts: 233member


    Makes many of the points I have made....


     


    Wall Street has basically given up on Apple.


    The stock has tanked more than 40% from a peak of $702 last September to a new low of about ~$406 this morning.


    The stock is also now trading at a price-earnings ratio of 9X.


    That P/E ratio is well below the market average, which is about 15X. It is also a valuation that is so low that it is generally awarded only to companies that Wall Street thinks are permanently screwed. (Think Dell, BlackBerry, or Hewlett Packard).


    Apple also has ~$150 billion of cash, which means that the market's assessment of Apple's actual business is even more pessimistic. (If you buy the stock, you get the $150 billion of cash along with the company). And Apple is already paying a dividend of 2.5% — and this dividend is expected to increase going forward.


    To put this in the most direct terms: Apple is now trading at a lower valuation than Dell.


    That is a seriously low valuation! And it's one that suggests that there may be a compelling risk/reward for those brave enough to buy the collapsing stock at this level.


    To be sure, much of the pessimism around Apple is justified. The case against the company is very easy to make right now:



    • The company's growth has vanished: Earnings are expected to shrink this year.


    • The company's critical product, the iPhone, has lost its edge, and the product cycle that drove Apple's mind-boggling profitability over the last several years (premium smartphone growth) is nearing its end.


    • Apple's profit margin is dropping, as its main products get commoditized


    • The CEO of the company is not a product visionary, and has not articulated a vision of where he wants to take Apple going forward.


    • Apple's internal management may be in turmoil or at least in flux, and employees are reportedly more willing to leave than they have been before


    • No one knows if Apple has any truly great new products in the pipeline.


    • Apple has cash coming out of its ears, but no clue what do with it.


    • Apple's first quarter results (coming next week) are likely to be disappointing, and the company's outlook will likely force Wall Street to slash its future estimates.


    All of those points are legitimate. And it's possible that Apple is indeed in the early stages of a long-term decline.


    (Such declines happen frequently in the tech industry--think Nokia, BlackBerry, Microsoft, Digital Equipment Corporation, Yahoo, and Apple in the 1990s, to name just a few. To think that this can't happen to Apple would be the height of reality distortion.)


    But...


    Buried in this heap of terrible news is some good news: Wall Street has now become so pessimistic about Apple that it's possible that investors will be positively surprised going forward.


    At this valuation, Apple really does have to be in the early stages of an inexorable long-term decline for the stock not to provide a reasonable return.


    How do we know?


    Because, in the last fiscal year (ending in September), Apple generated more than $40 billion of cash.


    At that rate of cash generation, it would take Apple only 6 years to earn enough cash to equal the value that Wall Street is currently placing on its entire business ($240 billion).


    In other words, if you were able to buy all of Apple today for the current market price of $400 billion, you would be able to pocket the company's $150 billion of cash. Then, if the company's cash generation remained the same, you would only have to wait 6 years before you got ALL of the cash you used to buy the company back. Then you would own Apple free and clear, for nothing.


    What this tells you is that, at the current stock price, Wall Street is assuming that Apple won't generate anywhere near $40 billion of cash a year going forward. (If Wall Street did assume this, then every Warren Buffett-like "value" manager in the world would be loading up on the stock.)


    The stock's current price, in fact, suggests that Wall Street thinks that Apple's cash generation will collapse going forward.


    And it very well might.


    Thanks to the competitive dynamics in the global hardware business, and Apple's need to both reduce prices on its current products and launch lower-priced products, Apple's profit margin will likely drop sharply in the future.


    But...


    The markets that Apple is selling into — global smartphones and tablets — should continue to grow on a unit basis. So, if Apple does launch lower-priced products to remain competitive, Apple's overall revenue should continue to grow.


    And here's the key point: even if Apple's profit margin gets cut in half, and even if the company's revenue never grows again, Apple will still generate enough cash to pay back investors in 12-13 years for buying the business today.


    That's how cheap the stock has gotten.


    Even if Apple's cash generation falls to $20 billion a year from $40 billion, which would be close to a disaster, Apple should still generate $250 billion of cash over the next dozen years. Add that to the $150 billion of cash the company already has, and the investment will have entirely paid for itself within 10-15 years.


    In other words, to believe that Apple's stock is worth even less than the current market price, you basically have to think that the company is becoming Nokia.


    Before you laugh at that idea, please understand that Apple might be becoming Nokia. No one knows how the Apple story will turn out, including the folks at Apple. The folks at Nokia a few years ago certainly didn't think they were becoming Nokia. And Nokia investors didn't think they were becoming Nokia, either. That's how it goes in the hardware business.


    But the optimistic point here is that there is a distinct possibility that Apple might NOT be becoming Nokia. There is a possibility that Apple might actually stabilize and remain a good if not mind-bogglingly amazing company.


    That's the bull case for the stock at these levels.


    The bull case is that Wall Street has gotten so remarkably pessimistic about Apple that it might not actually be hard for Apple to positively surprise investors in the future — especially once we get past next week's earnings and the presumably lousy first half of this year.


    To support this bull case, here are some positive aspects of the Apple story that Wall Street is currently ignoring:



    • The stock is very cheap (as illustrated above)


    • We are nearing the end of the new-product blackout that began last fall. (In relatively short order, excitement should begin to build about the iPhone 5S, the new iPad Mini, and other product refreshes, even if Apple doesn't have anything truly new up its sleeves)


    • While Apple's management team without Steve Jobs in charge is unproven, it's not stupid. Almost all of the folks who produced and sold Apple's great products over the past five years are still on the team.


    • Apple appears to be working on a cheaper iPhone, which suggests it is finally willing to trade profit margin for growth. This is critical for the company's long-term survival, and it's something Apple should have done a couple of years ago, when it was still the industry leader. But better late than never.


    • A disastrous first quarter and second-quarter outlook should radically reduce Wall Street's expectations for Apple--thus setting the bar lower. This will make it easier for Apple to positively surprise investors in the future.


    • It is still possible that Apple is working on a revolutionary new product like a TV or smartwatch that will suddenly get people jazzed about the company again. Yes, as time goes by, this possibility seems more remote. But it's not zero.


    • Most importantly, Apple is still well-positioned strategically and it still makes excellent products. We are not talking about a company like Dell or HP, which are in product businesses that are dying (PCs). And we're not talking about a company whose products have gone to crap. We're just talking about a company that has lost its product edge and clung too long to its super-premium pricing strategy instead of using its phenomenal profit margin and financial resources to remain both the quality leader AND the price leader. The global smartphone and tablet industries are going to continue grow rapidly over the next several years. Assuming Apple makes smart decisions on the pricing side, Apple should grow with them.


    Last summer, Apple was priced at such a high level that everything had to go right for the stock to continue to do well.


    Now, however, the stock is priced at such a low level that almost everything has to go wrong for the stock to continue its collapse.


    Yes, everything may well go wrong.


    But there is a distinct possibility that it may not. And if it doesn't, Apple's stock should provide a good return from this level. And it could even provide a great one.



    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/apples-stock-price-2013-4#ixzz2QjdP3bmn

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  • Reply 62 of 128
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member


    Told you they'd all show themselves.

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  • Reply 63 of 128

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post


    Well a number of them have said sales are slowing, that Apple can't deliver new products due to execution, pre-production issues, etc.


     


    You will sound very silly if Tim confirms that they were all correct.



    They are saying the same stuff since 1998.


     


    And you are saying/stating those things as facts when you have nothing to back that up, like stupid people have been doing since 98.


     


    You are stupid. It's proved. It's logical. There's no way around that.


    Even if Tim says they only sold half of an iPhone, you are being stupid because you are making decisions by listing to people that have been wrong since forever and can never prove anything, so they are always about "rumors", and you are always reading "rice" where "potato" is written.


     


    You are an absolute joke.


     


    However, if you are being paid to behave as a door, congratulations. I hope it is worth it and you invest that money well. Sell your house and buy amazon stock!

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  • Reply 64 of 128

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post


    So, in my opinion, smart shareholders are waiting for the shit storm to pass and haven't sold their stock, and haven't bought more when they realize how much Apple stock is far from the company performance.


    It's stupid to invest in Apple stock now, when Apple's performance has 0 impact on it. P/E of what?





    Oh, I see, you're waiting for the "shit storm" to pass.


     


    Do you have a timeline of how long you will wait for the "shit storm" to pass? Or is this an infinite wait?

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  • Reply 65 of 128
    jdnc123jdnc123 Posts: 233member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Told you they'd all show themselves.



    All I ask is Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, articulates a strategy.  Any strategy.  Tell us what they are going to do with the cash and where or if they can grow earnings (without discussing product types or releases).  If I don't like what he says, I'll move on with a massive loss - likely with the stock much lower - and know I made a bad decision.  If I like what I hear, I'll give him time to execute said strategy.


     


    Its really not that difficult or an unreasonable request from me and many other shareholders, some of who are the largest money managers in the world who have been dumping the stock because nobody likes to invest on hope and all an Apple investment is today is hope that Tim isn't as bad as he appears.

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  • Reply 66 of 128
    wigbywigby Posts: 692member
    You're writing proved you miss the big picture. Wall Street cares about Apple but Apple doesn't care about Wall Street. I've got 35k tied up in Apple stock and yet I love it because nothing has changed. Apple is and will continue to be wildly profitable. The only slowdown is the industry while they wait to see what Apple does next. You see, smartphones and tablets have almost run their course but no one would dare make the next move until Apple telegraphs their next move. So While Samsung would seem to be in the best financial position ever they are actually in the worst because they have to wait to see what Apple does so they know what to do with their cash.

    See how easy it is to spin speculation to make it fit the current market?
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  • Reply 67 of 128
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member


    Originally Posted by jdnc123 View Post

    All I ask is Tim Cook, the CEO of Apple, articulates a strategy.  Any strategy.


     


    He has. That you choose not to accept it is YOUR fault and YOUR problem.


     


    Funny that you'd reply directly to a post talking about PAID SHILLS.

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  • Reply 68 of 128

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post




    Oh, I see, you're waiting for the "shit storm" to pass.


     


    Do you have a timeline of how long you will wait for the "shit storm" to pass? Or is this an infinite wait?



    Well, the shit storm is based on FUD.


     


    So we have only a few options:


    - Apple releases a new product category that proves successful, and the FUD stops (for a limited period of time), P/E skyrockets.


    - Apple does not release a new product category that proves successful, and their stock (that can only go so low) will become like Microsoft.


     


    Eventually, no matter how much time from now, Apple will fail at new categories (obviously) and the FUD will be there for a few years until people get sick of it.


     


    But the truth, from a rational point of view:


     


    Apple will be making billions and billions for quarter after quarter, decades after decades.


    If the next big thing is making a planet from plastic, Apple has so much resources and mastery of supply chain (like NO ONE ELSE) and can also turn on their Xenon printers and have a brand new planet ready for today.


    There's no other company (no matter the sector) in that position.


     


    Heck, if they sell 0 iPhones they are still the most powerful tech company by a large margin. The sole drivers of innovation since 98.

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  • Reply 69 of 128
    jdnc123jdnc123 Posts: 233member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    He has. That you choose not to accept it is YOUR fault and YOUR problem.


     


    Funny that you'd reply directly to a post talking about PAID SHILLS.



    He surely hasn't said what he has planned for the cash.  He hasn't said if they can grow earnings given current opportunity set.  That is what I and the market care about and what any CEO should be able to articulate without giving up confidential product plans.


     


    Guarantee I have much more skin in the game than you, but believe what you want to believe.

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  • Reply 70 of 128

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post


    Well, the shit storm is based on FUD.


     


    So we have only a few options:


    - Apple releases a new product category that proves successful, and the FUD stops (for a limited period of time), P/E skyrockets.


    - Apple does not release a new product category that proves successful, and their stock (that can only go so low) will become like Microsoft.


     


    Eventually, no matter how much time from now, Apple will fail at new categories (obviously) and the FUD will be there for a few years until people get sick of it.


     


    But the truth, from a rational point of view:


     


    Apple will be making billions and billions for quarter after quarter, decades after decades.


    If the next big thing is making a planet from plastic, Apple has so much resources and mastery of supply chain (like NO ONE ELSE) and can also turn on their Xenon printers and have a brand new planet ready for today.


    There's no other company (no matter the sector) in that position.


     


    Heck, if they sell 0 iPhones they are still the most powerful tech company by a large margin. The sole drivers of innovation since 98.





    So, this is an infinite wait.


     


    Okay, got it.

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  • Reply 71 of 128

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post




    So, this is an infinite wait.


     


    Okay, got it.



    No, it's an infinite Gamble.


     


    Are you jdnc123?


     


    Why the hell did he stop answering my posts when you started posting? Because you are busy changing accounts?


    In fact your "pause" happened when he wrote that wall of text, or copy & paste it, but was busy searching.

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  • Reply 72 of 128
    mhiklmhikl Posts: 471member


    The more that block the trolls, the less likely they are to stay around. To answer them is to support their sounding board. Thankfully, AI has the blocking feature. Eventually, even responders get blocked, and for the most part, that is a shame. It's the only way to keep a site relevant.


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  • Reply 73 of 128
    feynmanfeynman Posts: 1,087member
    jdnc123 wrote: »
    I get it, the don't care, they just want to focus on products.  Well, they can't seem to get products out any longer and sales are slowing dramatically.  

    Tim Cook will go down in history as one of the worst CEOs the world has ever seen.  mark it down.

    I don't know if you recall but Tim Cook also said they are doubling down on leaks. It may appear that they have their heads in the sand doing nothing, but we just haven't seen any leaks. Maybe Mr. Cook is doing a pretty good job at keeping his word there? That alone is an amazing feat I applaud any CEO to accomplish.
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  • Reply 74 of 128

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post


    No, it's an infinite Gamble.


     


    Are you jdnc123?


     


    Why the hell did he stop answering my posts when you started posting? Because you are busy changing accounts?


    In fact your "pause" happened when he wrote that wall of test, or copy & paste it, but was busy searching.





    Okay... so now you are saying that buying AAPL is a gamble?


     


    Hmmmm....


     


    jdnc? LOL. You two are cut from the same cloth. Just opposite sides of the coin. [actually, let me amend that... I would trust jdnc's opinion more than I would trust yours]

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  • Reply 75 of 128
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    Told you they'd all show themselves.

    Yep. Not only that, his post right above you shows that he is part of a group churning out pre-fabbed negative "analysis."

    There is simply no way he is writing that stuff on the fly. These guys are so transparently hamfisted it's comical.
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  • Reply 76 of 128

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post




    Okay... so now you are saying that buying AAPL is a gamble?


     


    Hmmmm....


     


    jdnc? LOL. You two are cut from the same cloth. Just opposite sides of the coin.



    Of course it is a Gamble. It isn't based on the company performance or strategy.


    It is easy to manipulate.


     


    It's a gamble.

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  • Reply 77 of 128
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member

    Okay... so now you are saying that buying AAPL is a gamble?

    Hmmmm....

    jdnc? LOL. You two are cut from the same cloth. Just opposite sides of the coin.

    Hey, leave him alone with the language nitpicking. You know damn well English is his second language.

    Edit: He gives you a better answer than I did.
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  • Reply 78 of 128

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post





    Hey, leave him alone with the language nitpicking. You know damn well English is his second language.




    ????


     


    Of course I know that but his grasp of the language seems at least as capable as yours. His answers are proof of that.


     


    So hit the trail, pal.


     


    [actually, I think you just insulted Pedro]

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  • Reply 79 of 128
    jdnc123jdnc123 Posts: 233member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post





    Yep. Not only that, his post right above you shows that he is part of a group churning out pre-fabbed negative "analysis."



    There is simply no way he is writing that stuff on the fly. These guys are so transparently hamfisted it's comical.


    Umm, I didn't write that and never said I did.  Logic would have said the link to the story that was provided meant I made no effort to claim I wrote it.


     


    Like it or not, that is the view of Apple at the moment.  I just passed it along, made no claim I wrote it.


     


    About to drop below $400, over $125 billion in value lost by Tim this year alone.  In less than 4 months.  Worst.  CEO.  In history.

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  • Reply 80 of 128

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post


    Of course it is a Gamble. It isn't based on the company performance or strategy.


    It is easy to manipulate.


     


    It's a gamble.





    So was this manipulation going on when the stock price was going north... or just when it is going south?

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