iPad shipments could see first ever year-on-year decline in Q2, analyst says

2456

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 110
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post



    Tim Cook is shooting himself and Apple in the foot by moving all product launches to the fall. Customers are bombarded with Apple news for 3 months, then nothing for the other 9. That creates a gapping hole in a highly competitive market. Apple needs to spread out those product introductions, otherwise, the sales will be too concentrated toward the end of the year, and it won't get enough media coverage for the rest of the year.


    Sometimes they can't help it.   With their Intel powered products, they have to wait for Intel to release their chips.  There are also Broadcom chips for 802.11ac, new screens from whomever, new processors for their i-mobile devices, etc.   They can't always help when the components will be ready to go to mfg.


     


    Apple typically likes having SOME announcement each quarter.  Their last announcement was Oct., so a product announcement in June will be basically 7 months, and then there will product announcements ongoing until before Nov.  So, they'll have 6 months to do all of their product announcements for the year.

  • Reply 22 of 110
    crossladcrosslad Posts: 527member
    Of course the sales of Android tablets is increasing - people are replacing their cheap tablets when the battery dies or they can no longer run apps on their outdated systems. On the other hand my iPad 2 is still performing like the day it was bought.
  • Reply 23 of 110
    gijoeinlagijoeinla Posts: 215member
    drblank wrote: »
    Sometimes they can't help it.   With their Intel powered products, they have to wait for Intel to release their chips.  There are also Broadcom chips for 802.11ac, new screens from whomever, new processors for their i-mobile devices, etc.   They can't always help when the components will be ready to go to mfg.

    Apple typically likes having SOME announcement each quarter.  Their last announcement was Oct., so a product announcement in June will be basically 7 months, and then there will product announcements ongoing until before Nov.  So, they'll have 6 months to do all of their product announcements for the year.

    I feel the pain of people wondering what's the deal in the lack of any new annoucements. But... I kinda feel that last year they --Apple had to make some significant production and inventory changes -- the new smaller power/data plug on the iPhone/iPad mini etc. the shrinking of ALL the internal parts -- changes in the size of parts in iMac -- the map
    Debacle and staff changes in iOS development / retail -- the lack of Steve Jobs vacuum -- power struggles -- competitive pressures -- and development of new categories -- I think what many of us forget is that rapid insane expansion also requires ADDITIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE on every level within the company... You can add infrastructure carefully or stupidly and suffer damage to the BRAND..

    Judging by the delays it looks to me like the rush to be first has been abandoned by lessons learned to waiting and getting it right...

    Lets face it.. Another map PR situation would be quite frankly -- a brand torpedo...

    The eyes on Apple (and their PR/Marketing teams knows this) will be ever more scrutinized -- I mean this keynote will be crucial -- 8 months since the last one -- believe me -- the pressure is ON.. I expect some sweeping changes to iOS..

    On another note -- was in TWO Best Buy stores in the L.A. Market... The Same-sung designated sales and display areas are pretty tight.. Both positioned UP front -- just after you enter the stores -- with Apples area against the walls in the back -- knowing that this space usually is rented by the manufacturers -- Same-sung has spent a fortune for this presence -- a smart move...this alone presents a perception issue in these stores..
  • Reply 24 of 110
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member


    I know Ming-Chi Kuo has a history of being right in his predictions, but there's also a history of people underestimating the iPad that goes right back to it's inception. I think the numbers will be up.

  • Reply 25 of 110
    What goes up, also tends to come down (*see also share prices)

    NB. - whatever the company
  • Reply 26 of 110
    dnd0psdnd0ps Posts: 253member


    Where's that Gartner guy they hired recently?? Time to put him to good use

  • Reply 27 of 110
    ifij775ifij775 Posts: 470member
    ascii wrote: »
    I know Ming-Chi Kuo has a history of being right in his predictions, but there's also a history of people underestimating the iPad that goes right back to it's inception. I think the numbers will be up.
    Underestimating what? It isn't like something materially changed about the product since last quarter. The sales rate probably decayed like any other 2nd quarter after product release.
  • Reply 28 of 110
    fithianfithian Posts: 82member
    Sounds like another Samsung lackey.
  • Reply 29 of 110
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,404member
    ascii wrote: »
    I know Ming-Chi Kuo has a history of being right in his predictions...

    Like what?
  • Reply 30 of 110
    msuberlymsuberly Posts: 236member
    There is not a real compelling reason to upgrade now. If you own an ipad 2 or later, the functionality is not much greater. Minor spec bumps and minor increased software functionality are not to going to convince the masses to upgrade. I will probably continue to use my ipad 2 until the battery completely dies. The retina display that came out a year ago is not a good enough reason for me to drop several hundred dollars on a new one.
  • Reply 31 of 110


    This is because they haven't offered anything new or noteworthy in the last half year.  I'm sorry but my iPhone 5 battery life is garbage for the last 2 months, iOS is stale looking, and the indications of what iOS 7 hold for end users makes it sound like Android is going to leverage this change to one up apple.  The only upside Apple has is their use of metals.  But that aside I would like a device I can use through the day and not have to be tethered to a power cord.  Apple has had long enough to learn this lesson and despite this, their terrible software engineers and small batteries are making many of my family members anxious to dump iPhone and iOS.  


     


    You have to always be on your A game these days because of the options and the price premium Apple charged used to indicate a premium product.  Today it just ensures their profit margins are safe.  That's just not cutting it anymore for many.  

  • Reply 32 of 110
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    gijoeinla wrote: »
    I feel the pain of people wondering what's the deal in the lack of any new annoucements. But... I kinda feel that last year they --Apple had to make some significant production and inventory changes -- the new smaller power/data plug on the iPhone/iPad mini etc. the shrinking of ALL the internal parts -- changes in the size of parts in iMac -- the map
    Debacle and staff changes in iOS development / retail -- the lack of Steve Jobs vacuum -- power struggles -- competitive pressures -- and development of new categories -- I think what many of us forget is that rapid insane expansion also requires ADDITIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE on every level within the company... You can add infrastructure carefully or stupidly and suffer damage to the BRAND..

    Judging by the delays it looks to me like the rush to be first has been abandoned by lessons learned to waiting and getting it right...

    Lets face it.. Another map PR situation would be quite frankly -- a brand torpedo...

    The eyes on Apple (and their PR/Marketing teams knows this) will be ever more scrutinized -- I mean this keynote will be crucial -- 8 months since the last one -- believe me -- the pressure is ON.. I expect some sweeping changes to iOS..

    On another note -- was in TWO Best Buy stores in the L.A. Market... The Same-sung designated sales and display areas are pretty tight.. Both positioned UP front -- just after you enter the stores -- with Apples area against the walls in the back -- knowing that this space usually is rented by the manufacturers -- Same-sung has spent a fortune for this presence -- a smart move...this alone presents a perception issue in these stores..

    Not to mention, on your first point, the two very significant display changes that Apple made last year, the GF2 screens that defined the shape and weight of the iPad mini, and the missing piece of glass/new lamination process that mostly create the "stunning" effect of the new iMacs. Both of these new refinements in the displays caused production problems, so we know by that we are dealing with cutting edge production technologies.

    People act like new products can be just thought up and conjured into existence. As you say, every change depends on laying out new infrastructure. You need machines and fabrication lines and most of all engineers that have never before come together to make a new device or a new aspect of a device.

    It is a complex and far-flung problem, evidently, to start making indium/galium oxide touch thin film membranes in the millions of yardage needed for the iPad mini. Now that they've practiced on the mini, they can think about doing in for the 10-inch iPad—when the process has been engineered into readiness, and only then.

    Apple sweats these details like no other company in consumer tech ever has, and there are just so many engineers on earth that they can draw upon to get things like this done. And just so much room or human resources ecosystem at the old small-scale headquarters in Cupertino. They will be changing that, but not for a few years.

    "But Samsung can release multiple models throughout the year . . . etc. etc." Samsung has legions of engineers and chip and display fabs to draw on, and they're not hindered by perfectionism or aesthetics like Apple is. They won't copy that part of the equation because they can't, even once they get their design center going in San Jose. The design philosophy isn't there. Meanwhile they're driven by boundless competitiveness, military discipline and shady ethics.

    This business of spring or fall release schedules is we who know nothing about the production technology doing armchair supervising. Like most of what i'm doing here as well, from a cautionary point of view.
  • Reply 33 of 110
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member


    Originally Posted by Lerxt View Post

    Asia is now Samsung territory, Apple product use has significantly declined. That has got to have a lot to do with it.




    No, it isn't.





    Originally Posted by zoffdino View Post

    Tim Cook is shooting himself and Apple in the foot by moving all product launches to the fall. Customers are bombarded with Apple news for 3 months, then nothing for the other 9. That creates a gapping hole in a highly competitive market. Apple needs to spread out those product introductions, otherwise, the sales will be too concentrated toward the end of the year, and it won't get enough media coverage for the rest of the year.


     


    Who says that is what is happening? My stars.


     



    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

    Semi annual for Macs? You have a link? I highly doubt that was the case.


     


    Why does he need a link? Macs were updated once every six months for roughly a decade. How'd you forget that? Even I remember it, and that's ludicrous.





    Originally Posted by msuberly View Post

    There is not a real compelling reason to upgrade now. If you own an ipad 2 or later, the functionality is not much greater.


     


    Enough with the FUD.






    Minor spec bumps and minor increased software functionality are not to going to convince the masses to upgrade.



     


    GOOD THING THERE HASN'T BEEN ANYTHING REMOTELY CLOSE TO A "MINOR" BUMP SINCE THE IPAD 2 CAME OUT, HUH.






    The retina display that came out a year ago is not a good enough reason for me to drop several hundred dollars on a new one.



     


    What about the ability to actually use new software on it? And how old are your eyes, for reference?

  • Reply 34 of 110
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    There were always cheap tablets. That is not what is different about the second quarter.

    Yep. When was the newest iPad launched last fiscal year. In feb/march.

    And this year. Nov. so of course given that bulk of sales are in the launch, double that it was holiday shopping as well, sales now will be down compared to the previous quarter and last year when the launch was 'this' quarter.

    The lack or presence of android has little to do with it since the majority of those that would buy an android tablet were never going to buy an iPad cause they are too expensive, too locked down etc.
  • Reply 35 of 110
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    drblank wrote: »

    I thought the iPad mini should have been announced at the same time as the iPad 2, since that's really what it is.  It's nice, but it's not what they SHOULD have come out with when they announced the iPad 4.

    It's easy to say that in hindsight but its also erroneous. The iPad Mini would never have come out before it did due to one major factor. Steve Jobs. He didn't believe a smaller iPad would be Apple quality or even really sell (without being returned a few days later). He said as much. For the Mini to be released he needed to be convinced or for Tim Cook to be convinced and do it after Steve retired. Which is likely what happened.

    And no it isn't the same as the iPad 2. Your statement is based on an erroneous detail, that being the screen size. Check the specs, it's not the same PPI but the same resolutions a smaller screen which means a denser PPI. The math has been calculated on its 'retina' standing (based on Apple's mathematical definition) and its between 85-90% retina level already which is much better quality than the iPad 2
  • Reply 36 of 110
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member
    Why does he need a link? Macs were updated once every six months for roughly a decade. How'd you forget that? Even I remember it, and that's ludicrous.

    TS, I just checked the wiki and Macs haven't been updated within six months of the last release in the last decade+. New sizes don't count.
  • Reply 37 of 110
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member


    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

    TS, I just checked the wiki and Macs haven't been updated within six months of the last release in the last decade+. New sizes don't count.


     


    We have a wiki? I'm going off of MacTracker.

  • Reply 38 of 110
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by drblank View Post


    Sometimes they can't help it.   With their Intel powered products, they have to wait for Intel to release their chips.  There are also Broadcom chips for 802.11ac, new screens from whomever, new processors for their i-mobile devices, etc.   They can't always help when the components will be ready to go to mfg.


     


     



     


    Yep. They are in a damned if you do game.


     


    If they release without the new stuff some group dumps on them. If they wait, some other group dumps on them. 


    If they announce before something is ready to go, this group dumps on them with claims of delays, issues etc. If they wait, this other group dumps on them for not announcing 

  • Reply 39 of 110
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by msuberly View Post



    There is not a real compelling reason to upgrade now.


     


    Not for you, but you aren't the universal mind. Lots of folks disagree with you and did and will upgrade. Particularly when we have no idea what the iPad 5 and Mini 2 will look like. 

  • Reply 40 of 110
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,404member
    iOS is stale looking.....

    Groan. Tell us why it's 'stale'? And more importantly, what specific features of Android make it so unstale?

    Or can we just chalk it up to more troll garbage?
Sign In or Register to comment.