We'll answer that when you answer the corollary question; what was so intrinsically different about Apple to have the stock valued at post-split-equivalent $56 just over a year ago versus $100 a year earlier? Ha ha ha... That's called being hoisted...
Well... actually... that was going to be the next question. lol
Since I never said anything about knowing how the market works... I thought Mr. Internet Stock Guru could tell us the answer to both questions.
(I mean... if you really are asking me then I'd say it's all horseshit... and that there are no real rules other than some illogical determination made by some very wealthy influences... so why not line-ups at Apple stores... lol)
Well, I see that the Apple community represented here on AI is not a very open one when it comes to differing opinions.
I guess you guys win. I am done with AI.
I think it was Harry Truman who said, “If you can’t stand the heat then get out of the kitchen.” If you expect everyone to just accept your opinion and nod their heads in agreement then you are living in a dream world, especially when your opinions fly in the face of reality.
I think it was Harry Truman who said, “If you can’t stand the heat then get out of the kitchen.” If you expect everyone to just accept your opinion and nod their heads in agreement then you are living in a dream world, especially when your opinions fly in the face of reality.
... or, at least in the face of the reality on AI.
I'm not him, but there is a connection. I've been reading that lines on average are much bigger than previous lines. I heard the figure 30% tossed around. This is a pretty good indicator that total units sold will be greater than last year. And when Apple releases those figures next week I assume, that will have an effect on AAPL.
... and, by the way... anyone that has followed my posts (why they would is beyond me) would know that I was not actually making a connection between long lines and the stock price... at least not in the way that Mr. Internet Stock Guru implied.
Quite the opposite actually.
My point being that long lines and increased demand don't necessarily mean a higher stock price... because the whole system is quite illogical at times.
... but since he/she just jumped right in and assumed whatever he/she assumed... so I thought I'd play a bit.
Hey... you purport to know something... I want to know what it is. lol
My feeling is that the higher up in China have a vested interest in making money off this black market for a while... Who better to have the money to finance foreign buys.. And then later let the phone be sold. They get the best of both worlds so to speak.
Well, I see that the Apple community represented here on AI is not a very open one when it comes to differing opinions.
I guess you guys win. I am done with AI.
Now just a minute there. I got two iPhone 4Ses that are still on IOS 6 (one just used as a camera) because I dislike the denatured, anemic flatness of IOS 7, and its stupid Sharpie highlighter kindergarten colors.
I get angry when I look at the icons in 7. They're like a Puritanical purge of the photoreal images in IOS 6. It's like they want to rinse out the glass with bleach before they fill it again. For nothing but left-brained dictates of "modernism," or what the hell, "postmodernism." Like those coral and turquoise stucco car washes we were getting for awhile in LA.
Maybe you were talking about functionality. I'm not. It's about aesthetics, or anti-aesthetics. But wait, why are we going on about this today of all days? Gots to take the good with the bad, or however it goes. Anyway, don't you dare leave because of a few towel-snappers at the dark end of the locker room.
Photos after photos showing long lines outside Apple stores and yet the stock is down right now while the rest of the market is up. When Apple announces sales figures on Monday I wonder if Gene Munster will start spewing channel fill nonsense again.
It wasn't nonsense last year. Apple had to fill the retail channels and overseas retailers to be prepared for launch day, and the 5C demand was fine (much better than the news outlets were reporting, in fact) but still much lower than supply. Even Apple admitted they had misjudged the right mix of 5S versus 5C at first. Some fraction of the nine million were, in fact, still sitting on retail shelves for some time after the first weekend. It is typically the case that there is some channel inventory - barring a sell-out - and there was more of it than Apple's usual for the 5C at first. This was easily verifiable.
However, it does not appear that this year there is any oversupply. If anything the only issue is not having enough 6+ for the overwhelming demand.
So Reuters says Apple is losing its cool factor with consumers. And now we have a story from BusinessWeek with a headline that Apple's phones won't change the world but Nokia's will. And just the other day they put up a story telling android users not to buy the new iPhones because it's too difficult to switch ecosystems. I'd love to know who's paying for this FUD.
Photos after photos showing long lines outside Apple stores and yet the stock is down right now while the rest of the market is up. When Apple announces sales figures on Monday I wonder if Gene Munster will start spewing channel fill nonsense again.
I had an interesting conversation with my daughter's new boyfriend a few weeks ago. He works for a private UK investor group with big interest in Apple.
# the bottom line?...AAPL Is not Apple.
# the market players operate for maximum return by playing both ends of the equation; those companies on the way down and out, and those at the opposite extreme with ultra high sales like Apple where seasonality and supply problems - read strikes, earthquakes,force majeur etc can offer many many short term opportunities to take profits, knowing full well that the long term prospects underline and insure against major losses by the players.
# barring an Gerald "We sell jewellery that is total crap" Ratner moment, there is a long way between Apple's present success and beleaguered - spanned by comfortable middle age servicing its current huge customer base which could be a decade or two and when market volatility disappears.
# the precipitous AAPL share drop was an insane opportunity.
# if AAPL Is Apple...you've left it too late as a private investor.
It wasn't nonsense last year. Apple had to fill the retail channels and overseas retailers to be prepared for launch day, and the 5C demand was fine (much better than the news outlets were reporting, in fact) but still much lower than supply. Even Apple admitted they had misjudged the right mix of 5S versus 5C at first. Some fraction of the nine million were, in fact, still sitting on retail shelves for some time after the first weekend. It is typically the case that there is some channel inventory - barring a sell-out - and there was more of it than Apple's usual for the 5C at first. This was easily verifiable.
However, it does not appear that this year there is any oversupply. If anything the only issue is not having enough 6+ for the overwhelming demand.
Thompson
Oh please. Munster came up with that silly channel fill excuse because the sales figures were a lot higher than what he predicted and he didn't have the balls to admit he got his prediction wrong.
Oh please. Munster came up with that silly channel fill excuse because the sales figures were a lot higher than what he predicted and he didn't have the balls to admit he got his prediction wrong.
There were plenty of iPhone 5C units available everywhere you looked for weeks after launch day last year. These had been supplied to the channel in advance. That is channel fill, and it is undeniable. It is, of course, unfair that the media characterized the 5C as a flop simply because we are unaccustomed to an iPhone model that does not sell out of supply rapidly after launch. But there is no denying the facts: Apple overestimated 5C demand at the beginning and placed a lot in the third-party reseller channel, which counted towards those 9 million. Of course, Cook being Cook, it did not take Apple long to meet their inventory goals and supply/demand balance by redirecting build priorities.
Now, I am not going to argue with you about Gene Munster's motivations for what he says, but the facts are the facts: there was more inventory left in the channel than Apple had estimated there would be. Are you disagreeing with that?
Well... actually... that was going to be the next question. lol
Since I never said anything about knowing how the market works... I thought Mr. Internet Stock Guru could tell us the answer to both questions.
(I mean... if you really are asking me then I'd say it's all horseshit... and that there are no real rules other than some illogical determination made by some very wealthy influences... so why not line-ups at Apple stores... lol)
Not far off lol. Usually the rumor of things happening changes stock price, not the actual event... For example 'Apple will sell 10 million phones' and the price goes up. If they sell 10 it'll be flat, if they sell less it'll drop, it'll go up if they sell 15. The market is influenced by emotion... If people think the company has an upside, the stock is more likely to go up....
I'm not a guru but I am a financial advisor so there's my 2 cents on that
I am really surprised that all those financial networks or sites are seeing this and reporting that - I guess Alibaba is stealing the Apple thunder. I guess will see the real uptick on this stock on Monday.
There were plenty of iPhone 5C units available everywhere you looked for weeks after launch day last year. These had been supplied to the channel in advance. That is channel fill, and it is undeniable. It is, of course, unfair that the media characterized the 5C as a flop simply because we are unaccustomed to an iPhone model that does not sell out of supply rapidly after launch. But there is no denying the facts: Apple overestimated 5C demand at the beginning and placed a lot in the third-party reseller channel, which counted towards those 9 million. Of course, Cook being Cook, it did not take Apple long to meet their inventory goals and supply/demand balance by redirecting build priorities.
Now, I am not going to argue with you about Gene Munster's motivations for what he says, but the facts are the facts: there was more inventory left in the channel than Apple had estimated there would be. Are you disagreeing with that?
I don't think so. The fact is Apple keeps a lot of iPhones for its own stores for opening weekend. If that's the case, they aren't considered sold until Apple sells them to the end customer.
Comments
We'll answer that when you answer the corollary question; what was so intrinsically different about Apple to have the stock valued at post-split-equivalent $56 just over a year ago versus $100 a year earlier? Ha ha ha... That's called being hoisted...
Well... actually... that was going to be the next question. lol
Since I never said anything about knowing how the market works... I thought Mr. Internet Stock Guru could tell us the answer to both questions.
(I mean... if you really are asking me then I'd say it's all horseshit... and that there are no real rules other than some illogical determination made by some very wealthy influences... so why not line-ups at Apple stores... lol)
Well, I see that the Apple community represented here on AI is not a very open one when it comes to differing opinions.
I guess you guys win. I am done with AI.
I think it was Harry Truman who said, “If you can’t stand the heat then get out of the kitchen.” If you expect everyone to just accept your opinion and nod their heads in agreement then you are living in a dream world, especially when your opinions fly in the face of reality.
There is nothing on earth I would want that bad to stand in those lines. Which is why I order online.
I think it was Harry Truman who said, “If you can’t stand the heat then get out of the kitchen.” If you expect everyone to just accept your opinion and nod their heads in agreement then you are living in a dream world, especially when your opinions fly in the face of reality.
... or, at least in the face of the reality on AI.
Either way... it's swimming upstream.
I'm not him, but there is a connection. I've been reading that lines on average are much bigger than previous lines. I heard the figure 30% tossed around. This is a pretty good indicator that total units sold will be greater than last year. And when Apple releases those figures next week I assume, that will have an effect on AAPL.
... and, by the way... anyone that has followed my posts (why they would is beyond me) would know that I was not actually making a connection between long lines and the stock price... at least not in the way that Mr. Internet Stock Guru implied.
Quite the opposite actually.
My point being that long lines and increased demand don't necessarily mean a higher stock price... because the whole system is quite illogical at times.
... but since he/she just jumped right in and assumed whatever he/she assumed... so I thought I'd play a bit.
Hey... you purport to know something... I want to know what it is. lol
[VIDEO]
And winners don't mention the competition on a launch day.
My feeling is that the higher up in China have a vested interest in making money off this black market for a while... Who better to have the money to finance foreign buys.. And then later let the phone be sold. They get the best of both worlds so to speak.
Now just a minute there. I got two iPhone 4Ses that are still on IOS 6 (one just used as a camera) because I dislike the denatured, anemic flatness of IOS 7, and its stupid Sharpie highlighter kindergarten colors.
I get angry when I look at the icons in 7. They're like a Puritanical purge of the photoreal images in IOS 6. It's like they want to rinse out the glass with bleach before they fill it again. For nothing but left-brained dictates of "modernism," or what the hell, "postmodernism." Like those coral and turquoise stucco car washes we were getting for awhile in LA.
Maybe you were talking about functionality. I'm not. It's about aesthetics, or anti-aesthetics. But wait, why are we going on about this today of all days? Gots to take the good with the bad, or however it goes. Anyway, don't you dare leave because of a few towel-snappers at the dark end of the locker room.
Photos after photos showing long lines outside Apple stores and yet the stock is down right now while the rest of the market is up. When Apple announces sales figures on Monday I wonder if Gene Munster will start spewing channel fill nonsense again.
It wasn't nonsense last year. Apple had to fill the retail channels and overseas retailers to be prepared for launch day, and the 5C demand was fine (much better than the news outlets were reporting, in fact) but still much lower than supply. Even Apple admitted they had misjudged the right mix of 5S versus 5C at first. Some fraction of the nine million were, in fact, still sitting on retail shelves for some time after the first weekend. It is typically the case that there is some channel inventory - barring a sell-out - and there was more of it than Apple's usual for the 5C at first. This was easily verifiable.
However, it does not appear that this year there is any oversupply. If anything the only issue is not having enough 6+ for the overwhelming demand.
Thompson
Gruber has an epic phrase for the "don't buy the new iPhone" story.
He called it "profoundly shallow." Can't tell if he was being deliberately oxymoronic. I'm going to steal it. Come to think of it, maybe he did too.
I had an interesting conversation with my daughter's new boyfriend a few weeks ago. He works for a private UK investor group with big interest in Apple.
# the bottom line?...AAPL Is not Apple.
# the market players operate for maximum return by playing both ends of the equation; those companies on the way down and out, and those at the opposite extreme with ultra high sales like Apple where seasonality and supply problems - read strikes, earthquakes,force majeur etc can offer many many short term opportunities to take profits, knowing full well that the long term prospects underline and insure against major losses by the players.
# barring an Gerald "We sell jewellery that is total crap" Ratner moment, there is a long way between Apple's present success and beleaguered - spanned by comfortable middle age servicing its current huge customer base which could be a decade or two and when market volatility disappears.
# the precipitous AAPL share drop was an insane opportunity.
# if AAPL Is Apple...you've left it too late as a private investor.
I liked him immediately.
Oh please. Munster came up with that silly channel fill excuse because the sales figures were a lot higher than what he predicted and he didn't have the balls to admit he got his prediction wrong.
There were plenty of iPhone 5C units available everywhere you looked for weeks after launch day last year. These had been supplied to the channel in advance. That is channel fill, and it is undeniable. It is, of course, unfair that the media characterized the 5C as a flop simply because we are unaccustomed to an iPhone model that does not sell out of supply rapidly after launch. But there is no denying the facts: Apple overestimated 5C demand at the beginning and placed a lot in the third-party reseller channel, which counted towards those 9 million. Of course, Cook being Cook, it did not take Apple long to meet their inventory goals and supply/demand balance by redirecting build priorities.
Now, I am not going to argue with you about Gene Munster's motivations for what he says, but the facts are the facts: there was more inventory left in the channel than Apple had estimated there would be. Are you disagreeing with that?
I just became an AAPL shareholder for the first time.
Not far off lol. Usually the rumor of things happening changes stock price, not the actual event... For example 'Apple will sell 10 million phones' and the price goes up. If they sell 10 it'll be flat, if they sell less it'll drop, it'll go up if they sell 15. The market is influenced by emotion... If people think the company has an upside, the stock is more likely to go up....
I'm not a guru but I am a financial advisor so there's my 2 cents on that
I am really surprised that all those financial networks or sites are seeing this and reporting that - I guess Alibaba is stealing the Apple thunder. I guess will see the real uptick on this stock on Monday.
In any case, this is looking very positive!
I don't think so. The fact is Apple keeps a lot of iPhones for its own stores for opening weekend. If that's the case, they aren't considered sold until Apple sells them to the end customer.
So not stuffing inventory at all.